Markets Impacted by Earnings and Geopolitics

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Cameron Dawson briefe from New Edge. I think a lot of our listeners know the Cameron Dawson line. What has changed for you in the last forty eight seventy two hours with a reaffirmation of equities.

I think that what got reaffirmed is that we are still very much in an up trend. What got taken out or changed in the last twenty four hours is the risk that the Fed would be hiking rates at some point in twenty five or twenty six. The two year treasury yield got to four point four percent, which is just slightly below we're Fed funds is right now. That meant that you were pricing in some risk that we could get to hikes.

I want to talk about the ambiguity out there. It's a microeconomic concept, folks, which is yields go up. OMG, that's bad for stocks. And I've had a number of sophisticated guests like you say, maybe.

Not yields a bit higher.

There's a bit more inflation, nominal GDP is better, and revenues come in sprightly like delta four out of eight banks whatever, Cardia and Switzerland. I mean, is this a revenue myss that we're going into.

In this court?

The smcreo.

Well, I do think that we need to make a distinction between what's going on with European luxury and what could happen within US consumer stocks, because European luxury is benefiting from a week euro and a strong dollar. If we see US consumer stocks potentially coming out saying, hey, the dollar's really strong, it's weighing on some demand or

Kay, And it's only January sixteenth, so forgive me for the baseball reference pictures and catchers don't report until February eleventh. But here's my question for you. What inning are we in? I mean, seriously, I can hear people make a case that we're early stage, that we're late stage. Where are we in the business cycle right now?

We've been thinking that we lean more towards late cycle because of your long cyclical indicators like where construction spending is. If you were early cycle, that would not be at peaks. But if we think about where we are from a pricing standpoint, we do have to appreciate that we're going into this year at a much higher valuation than we

Yeah, kim, let me let me build on this a little bit. I was looking at us real yields, right and I was looking at the two year versus the ten yeard, trying to decompose them, and they're telling me two different things. If you look at the moving yields and nominal yields. Much of it can be explained by inflation breakkeapings going up at least in the front end, but if you look out to the ten year, it's

What are your thoughts there?

Yeah, and we also have to add in these fiscal concerns, the potential questions around how are you going to fund the fiscal deficit. Given the fact that we're hearing from Bessent today, we know that bills as a percentage of Treasury issuance or Treasury's outstanding is now at twenty percent or over twenty percent. That's more than what tee back the Treasury Borrowing Authority recommends, which just suggests that that is a huge question for how Besant is going to

Kemp, I want you, you're so visible and enthusiastic about the American experiment. I want you to talk about a gloom crew quieted again, like go to cash, and then I got to figure out how to get back into the market once I'm in cash.

What's your take on that.

We do think that you should always see volatility as opportunity and it's a mindset shift that means that when nicely said, yeah, you do, when you see volatility, it's very easy for fear to kick back in and that's when you get frozen. You get that arrested development. So we think if you judge us as advisors, our success is when clients call us when there is volatility and say what should I buy? Versus saying get me out of this. I want to sell.

This is so damien. I can't say enough. I mean, you're on the beach in Miami, you don't care. I'm inundated on the street, in restaurants, my email some of four, I'm inundated with people saying I'm afraid to participate.

Well, I'm going to channel Brooks Ritchie in a little bit of behavioral finance here, because for me, as we get into January, it's all about positioning. It's all about sentiment, right, and so talk to me about financial conditions. I mean, what is it going to take to knock you us financial conditions back again just a little bit. I mean, is it going to be you know, equities coming off here? Or spreads? I mean, how tight can spreads go? I mean,

Isn't it fascinating? So the four main components of financial conditions being yields, currencies, equity prices, and credit spreads. Yields and currencies have all tightened, but because equities and credit spreads have remained so resilient, you haven't seen a tightening in financial conditions, which means we think that financial markets are effectively saying FED are not that tight. If the FED was that tight, credit spreads would not be at

What's your call in the market now?

I mean, people, the whiplash the last two weeks has been you. We're deep into twenty twenty five. I mean, what's your call in the market this year?

Respect the trend, but do not ignore the risks. Our call for twenty twenty five is a wide, choppy range.

Okay, we got to run because they got to do bank earnings. You want to do bank earnings with us?

Yeah, he's more can Stanley being able to talk about an entrance margins coming?

Ken Leon joins us, Now he's really really I'm honored by this senior analyst Cfira with decades of experience.

Ken.

My basic take in my audience has heard this from me. The banks are literally sandbag and how much money they're making, they are profit machines. Let's start with the why Why are these big banks profit machines?

The banks have a much stronger business model today Tom than what we spoke about maybe three, five or ten years ago. They have a blend of great franchises with recurring revenue fees for transactions across many businesses, and then on the up cycle for investing or really for investment banking, we're seeing the added benefits. So it's almost like putting fuel on the fire. And that's the story for twenty twenty five.

Is there a monopolistic tendency here? Is there concentration of revenue and particularly concentration of profits so great that you are concerned?

Well, we're not concerned, but investors have to be aware so that when you're investing in the overall market or the financial sector, the five global US banks or top ten constituents. And when we look at these banks, they're gaining wallet share across different businesses. So the answer is yes, consumer investment banking taking wallet share from Europe. Across most businesses, they have dominant positions.

But that's a strength for America.

Up.

Ken, I'm sitting here next to gam Dawson and she's dying to ask you this question. I mean, bankers are claiming that there's just this enormous appetite for capital at current levels. I mean a surge and profitability. Not just JP, not just Goldman, but Wells and City as well, Yesterda, Wells Fargo. Yeah, I mean everyone is making money in this market. Ken, talk to us about BAA and Morgan Stanley. What are you focused on here?

So we took a look at the numbers for Bank of America. They're slightly better than JP. Morgan A loan deposit growth three percent for buff Net enter or sink I'm three percent in the areas of global banking, very strong across all areas.

I think any.

Of these managements want to understate their book or outlaws than still early.

This is my big theory. Cameron Dawson with us, we're doing this differently this time. Do you have Cam Dawson looking at the holistic market and Ken Leon with terrific granularity is really what surveillance is about.

Kim Dawson, you're listening to this.

Is this a year where you look at Ken Leon's work and say it's a sector acquisition or do you buy individual securities?

Yeah?

I mean we think the financials are set up for success. You have a strong economy, you have a steeper yield curve, you have the potential for regulatory improvement, and you have the potential for a return to business activity in M and A and IPOs. These are all important tailwinds. Just don't forget the banks are now not that cheap. They're trading at one and a half times book, which is effectively the peak chem You agree, ken.

Leone, Are they rich? Yeah?

So we in November we've put the report out stay the course for twenty twenty five. And what strategists don't know is sometimes you can earn into your valuation or higher. So we're going to see upward earnings estimates for the consensus through all this year, we're overweight the financial sector along with technology and communications services.

Ken my Son was just on the Morgan stan Lee sophomore internship last night, and you know what, it's not about net interest margins. It's about wealth management. Talk to us about the seven one hundred and fifty what no, I'm sorry, I'm sorry, seven point three billion dollar beast. I mean, talk to us about wealth management, Morgan Stanley Q four. I mean it's kind of have been great, right, not lights out.

It never has these enormous jumps in terms of growth, but they're just steady performers. What they do is they create the story for durable, recurring revenue fee services. And that's good because it's enabled Morgan Stanley in the last year or so to get a wide, higher and multiple closer, getting closer to a black Rock. So it is a

I said this the other day, I think maybe it was yesterday, that Blackrock now is even beginning to be folded into the major bank analysis. With the success that we've seen We welcome all of you across the nation in your commute on Applecarplay.

Android Otto.

Good morning ninety nine one FM in Washington, Big events down there. We're gonna go to Ethan Brodner and Tel Aviv here in a bit. Good morning, ninety two nine FM, Boston, our flagship Bloomberg eleven to three to zero, New York. Good morning, and a first mentioned this morning YouTube Humbled by the attendance, Thank you so much. Subscribe to Bloomberg Podcasts. Ken Leon with us is CFII and Kim Dawson sitting in.

As well with NewART t Wealth Damian.

Yeah, Ken, I mean, look when I look at the Bank of Earnings and I try to break in and see what's going on undneath the surface, I look at dead underwriting because me that gives me a pretty decent lead on commercial real estate. You know, and we know what the commercial real estate market has looked like, and we know what it looks like right now. There's a lot of debt out there where you know, borrows are paying four percent and they're gonna have to adjust to

Right? So, for any of the large banks, they mostly have exposure to multifamily, which is more stable. Commercial real estate is mostly office is at risk. We see it as kind of idiosyncratic for this year to twenty twenty six, which means no big reserves. They already took them. Additionally, the areas to still lendes areas like data centers for AI on a global basis and overhall. When we look at real estate, we're also seeing some deep values. So firms like Blackstone and KKR and others, we'll.

Take a look at it.

Brookfield's another one.

Well, Ken, I mean I'm dying here. You talk a little bit more about these data centers.

You know.

My read on it is that the building of data centers accounts for easily one percent of GDP here in the US. I mean, Cam, what are your thoughts about, you know, that kind of convergence of you know, mag seven tech and the real estate sector. I mean, talk to us a little bit about what that means for the US economy.

Yeah.

Neil Dodger put out a really interesting note yesterday talking about how he thinks it's about a half a percentage point in the last year that tech has contributed and that you've seen a slow down in the permits or the initial kind of plans, which is a question of how long can it last?

I got one more question, Ken Leander. What Damien was talking about there? I think is an important frame with your research capabilities at CFRA. Does Meg seven expand this year with data center buildouts? With the oomph, the productivity oomph of the American economy? Are we naiven a branded idea of just seven stocks?

Well, it may not be seven stocks, you know, certainly there's some enormous companies that are just below that market. It's a very concentrated market. It does put a little bit higher risk on equities if you want to be defensive. Of course, Cameron could talk about an equal weight at S and P five hundred or the SMPA, divity and aristocrats. But overall, it's the market we're in.

Cameron, I got twenty two seconds equal weight. It's all the rage now, isn't it. I mean every other page of Barons equal weight?

What do you think?

Be careful?

Equal weight?

Thank you?

You have grown nine percent in the last two years. MAG seven earnings have grown one hundred and twenty five percent.

This is why Cam Dawson's on, folks, She's got the detail.

Say that one more time, it's too important.

In the last two years, equal Weight earnings are up nine percent. Mag seven earnings are up one hundred and twenty five percent. No wonder, it's a consumation.

The only one I know on the street that can do that is Sam Stolevall ken Leanes CFII.

Thank you so much for joining us today.

Cam Dawson, thank you as well, particularly for the acuity of theirs.

You're listening to the Bloomberg Surveillance Podcast. Catch us Live weekday afternoons from seven to ten am Eastern. Listen on Applecarplay and Android Otto with the Bloomberg Business app, or watch us live on YouTube.

We are honored to bring you Michael Nathansen of Maffatt Nathan sin on this horrific moment for Los Angeles. Michael, do you and Craig Moffatt have any idea how Hollywood pauses or shuts down or regroups.

Were in tom That is the question, right, It's this is something that the industry did not need at this point in time, given that what you laid out of the past four years. I don't know how our groups, right, I don't know, you know, people have lost lives, homes.

I just don't know the community. I don't know how they get back to work anytime soon.

And the Hollywood reporter Ingrid Schmidt, folks, this is this is a minor story. Top Hollywood stylusts are helping fire victims rebuild their wardrobes. I mean, Michael pulled us over to the industry. Response you would hope for from people like Disney, like is basic as what do they do with the oscars?

What do you and Craig presume they could do?

I know it's interesting is invited to an award show next month, and I assumed it was going to be canceled, right, And I spoke to the people who were organizing it. They felt like, for the community's sake that it has to go on, right, the show must go on.

Tom.

I think they will try to get people together in a community and regroup and basically not slow down whatever was on the calendar.

I really do, because it's you.

Basically need to see people get together, figure out what you can do to help your neighbor. So I was surprised to learn that the thing what I was planning to go to was still on. So I have to believe the show will go on, Tom, I really do.

Please.

Well, Michael, I mean, look we I mean, you live in Scarsdale. I live in Ryan, New York. You know, we have friends out west, you know. And my question for you just you know, and what you're hearing and what you're you know, what what does your gut tell you? I mean, how is LA going to move through this? I mean, do you see migration? Do you see a lot of the wealthy people who are out along the pch you know, moving south, moving back to New York?

Well, it's you know, Sally, one of our partners in Marfa Nathanson, lives by Brownwood and they spent some time down south of LA, and he was suggesting that people will move further south, away from the canyons and the hills, maybe closer to the beaches. But you know, so to your point him, you know, you've lost Rye, You've lost Scarsdale. It's that type of you know, erosion of a community. And I think it's going to take years for this community to rebuilt. I do think you're right.

I think if you have the schools, I mean that's people like us. I mean, what do you send your kids to school?

Now?

What do you do?

How do you read crazy or church or temple or hospitals. It's it's hard to imagine, but I think you will see a flight.

I do.

I think people will pick up and move someplace a little bit safer, maybe even cheaper.

Right give them the.

Cost of la Michael Nathanson, thank you for this perspective. And you must think Rob Carolyn or Bloomberg mediaist who's been sleepless for four or five six days, perhaps this morning some quiet and containment out in Los Angeles. Michael, I have to admit on Friday, I will go home, I will commit the surveillance nap, and then I'm going to get up and watch Silo the last season, the last episode of the season for Apple. Tim Cook is so Silo happy. He's doing photo things with the actress

Tom, I love their content. There's some of the best shows on TV. I haven't watched silo, I have to admit, but there's a bunch of other things I watch.

They're not making a dent. Tom.

There's where you look at overall Apple share of time spent streaming. Do you want to guess what their share of streaming is? It's less right, Wow, it's I know it's one percent, and it's just it's just terrible.

So we've been when we go.

To La to do our visits and tours, there's no one in that town who knows what Apple's long term plan is and what they want to be when they grow up.

It's kind of amazing, right, it really is.

Michael. I'd love to take this in a very different direction.

It's a really interesting question.

So far from when we look at Meta and Alphabet it has made sense because we're in the early phase of the build out right, and when you look at Meta's results, you can see the benefit of AI in their ad numbers and their engagement.

You can see it at Google as well. Or we're to your question.

We're at this really interesting tipping point where the cost of cappecks the depreciation of cappax. I know it's not in the morning, but I have to say depreciation at nine in the morning. The cost of cappacks will start hitting the income statements the next couple of years, and the question will be is will the advertising revenues, will the subscription revenues from cloud accelerate at the same rate as.

At capex growth?

Right that we're entering twenty five to twenty six will be kind of the test period to see if it may if these investages made sense to where we are today. It's penciled out, but the full cost of CAPBECKS is barely on the balance sheet today and barely on income statement today.

Now talk to us also about like these data centers. I mean, is there a risk that they become obsolete? I mean, look at office. I mean, office is obsolete right now, right, No, tear it down and class the office here in real estate. But you know, I mean it is a concern. I know that all the servers, you know, their own kind of buy the Microsoft who in the data center so they can replace them if

It's funny I was thinking of that this morning when I thought about how much someone like Elon Musk has just thrown into a quick build of a data center in Tennessee, right, how quickly they've done this. You would

I think you're right about that.

Joining us, we thank you for being with us on your community across the nation on YouTube, from your home, from your office.

Do you know that on a Arrivian you can watch us on YouTube in your car? Really?

I don't know if that's a good thing or not, but that's what somebody told me. Michael Nathanson with us, and we thank him for trench and comments and the fire of the disaster in Los Angeles and these comments on.

The bigger picture as well.

Michael Nathanson, what's your single best idea for twenty twenty five?

And you're gonna ask me that Tom asked me that every time.

Like besides of Yankees not dropping the ball at the wrong what is your single best idea?

The Rangers?

You know selling we'll get to the Rangers, blow it up, blow it up outside your.

Single best idea?

So basically, my single best idea and I'm like, and I'm gonna punt because the best they do have with the firm is sports gambling. It's Flutter and FanDuel. Right, So my best idea. You know, we've been buyers of Meta and Alphabet right for a lot of time.

Those will still work. They're fine.

They're actually not that expensive relative to Apple, which I know you Craig on last week, which is a sell on. So in large cap tech, I'm fine with with owning Meta and Alphabet I mean there, it's fine. But the best structural idea we'll be buying into sports gambling with it within you.

Okay, So here's what we're gonna do, because Damien, we're gonna rip up the script here. I'm interviewing Damien Sasaur and Michael Nathanson to get to the news here is well, let me start with Damien Sasauur as well, is gambling out of control in sports because of the addiction that all of us are written seeing each.

And every day.

Oh, you're asking me a question about what I know about the you're asking me at the morality of sports.

I'm asking about it's grown so fast. That's why Nathanson.

Has a buy on it.

I don't think. I think I think Nathan's is right. You haven't even scratched the surface of just how much how far this can go. But here's my question. I mean, I mean, Michael can correct me if I'm wrong. We've expanded, I mean, the footprint of gambling hasn't really expanded so much this year relative to last. I mean, what Calgary, Calgary got sports gamble this year? Maybe Kentucky I think just legalized, Like and when is Florida? When does Texas?

Right?

So Robert Fishman on our and our our firm covers covers the sector, and what he's found is that our per capita basis, even though New Jersey has been rowing the years, in Europe.

Per capital spending keeps going up.

Right, So you may have thought that everyone you know is gambling and they're spending as much as they can. But we're finding we don't need those states to come online anytime soon because on a state by state basis, there's more per capitive spending and the competitive dynamic. Right, people started with all types of free bet offers, Those those platforms.

Have gone away.

Yeah, pretty much a two horse market fan duel and DraftKings. So it's become a duopoly and the per capitalist spend keeps going up.

In Tom, I want to let you know I have deep concerns about.

This as a as a parent and as a citizen. But it's legal, Tom, right, you know what it's people send to me. People have spent Thanksgiving Day watching their their grown children center our couch betting on Thanksgiving football games as a family activity basically, you know, I mean.

This is so important.

What have you and your team Michael Nathanson learned from.

England in their decades, in almost centuries of really active betting is part of the social culture.

I mean, is that what we're handling heading?

We're going to become like you know, you know Ira Jersey losing his mortgage on Aston Villa.

I mean, is that where we're heading?

Well, you know it's interesting the UK has started to put some real guardrails around this topic. Right, So the UK regulators are concerned about just how much ease or how much generossity has been given to to betters and you know, and putting, and they put limits on certain

Right?

All right, Michael, enough is enough?

Here?

What happened to the Rangers? I mean, seriously, they're planning a bit better lately, but I mean that the third worst record in the Eastern Conference. I mean, you know, outside of I mean, he's just the force of nature. You know, what is going on with the New York Rangers?

You know, you know, it's interesting.

So, as you know, we're analysts of firms and we have to look at strategies and CEO leadership decisions and culture.

And I think there's a story about culture.

Right.

I think the GM and the coach lost the room.

And as Tom knows, you know, hockey requires intensity and dedication and throwing your body on, you know, on the ice block shots, right.

I think they lost the room.

And by trading their captain and Genarado Goodrow and then Gettarad of Coco, they base.

I think they lost momentum. I really is that simple?

I really do.

Okay, I got one minute, Michael Nathan says, I think I've.

Got this right. As a foreigner.

The Jets are terrible, the Giants are terrible, the Islanders are terrible.

The Rangers are terrible.

The Nets lost their worst games since time began last night? What is it about New York sports that makes it so damn bad?

Tom? As a New Englander, I think it comes.

Down to acknowledgement of ownership, right, like what did the Crafts do?

What did the Boston Red Sox ownership?

Getting it right?

Do?

I mean, he's never coming out again.

I think it comes down to ownership, and we have some terrible owners in New York, and I wish you could have shareholder activism to replace all these folks.

Michael, I just want to tell you I'm going to feature your comments on gambling and betting today on single Best Idea of the podcast. Thank you for the comments on this horror in Los Angeles. Thank you for your comments of what Lisa and I are worried about their kids and gambling. Mister Nathanson on zhigh Ground with Moffatt Nathan Center, this.

Is the Bloomberg Surveillance Podcast. Listen live each weekday starting at seven am Eastern on Applecarplay and Android Auto with the Bloomberg Business app. You can also listen live on Amazon Alexa from our flagship New York station, Just say Alexa Play Bloomberg. Eleven thirty, with the.

Death of President Carter, we looked back at the struggle of the Camp David Accords. The struggle now is far more visceral, and in our modern media, including Bloomberg headlines, far more immediate. No one has lived this like Ethan Bronner. He's Bloomberg News Israel bureau chief and definitive on Levn.

I hate to say to Ethan, but me, the amateur, saw this coming.

I saw the celebration what twelve hours ago, and now I've gotten the last one and twenty minutes backtracking and immense fragility. Tell me about the cabinet of net Yahoo. Tell me about the Israeli Parliament and where they fit into this matrix right now?

Sure thing, Tom, You're you're showing your experience with your with your cynicism. It's not really cynicism. But look, I think that the difficulty is that there are two things going on right now that are slowing the deal. One is that, according to the Prime Minister of Israel, Benjamin Antania Hamas has imposed new demands and renegged on and other agreements, and therefore he's not letting his negotiators leave Doha, the capital of Katar, to come back and brief the

With me today, Damien Sas are with really great expertise. You know, we could go to Jacob Frankel, the former governor of the Bank of Israel. But but there's a there's a linkage here, Damien says, are for Ethan Browner's world into just a fractured economy.

From Cairo up is up to Anchora.

Ethan, I just want to look a little bit north of Israel here. I want to look to Lebanon because some fascinating things are going on. It's the best performing bond market on the planet here in twenty twenty five. I mean these I mean they're basically in talks three structure thirty billion dollars worth of bonds after the most recent election. Talk to us about Israel, I mean the two prong fight Hamas and Hesbala, they look north. What are your thoughts there?

No, I mean, you're absolutely right. I mean that's the sort of that crazy business is that if there is if these deals can go forward, there is an enormous amount of money ready to start investing israel Is. By the way, as soon as there was a notion that there would be a deal here, Israeli assets started to go up, including the Sheckle. So you're right, and you know, there is this very very delicate moment in Lebanon right now where we're perhaps in a post his blow moment.

Well, Ethan rates you know, FX, I mean, you're right in my wheelhouse there. But let's talk about commodities. I mean, bring crude up nine percent year to date. The Bloomberg Energy Index is up over ten percent this year alone. Obviously a lot of that has to do with the ceasefire arrangement. If it doesn't go through, can things just you know, snap back that quickly?

I don't know.

I mean, I really find it hard to believe that there will not be a deal, to be honest, but you know, there's so much hesitation right now in Israel that it makes me worry that it could fall apart.

What is the Trump constituency in a complex Tel Aviv in Jerusalem, among the cabinet, the fourteen you know, Ethan, I'm making a joke, the fourteen parties of Israel. What is the Trump constituency within the people of Israel.

Well, what's really interesting about that, Tom, is that this is this is one of the few countries in the world that wanted to vote for Trump. If it hadn't had a vote in November, it was sixty seven to seventy percent pro Trump, Now, what has happened here right now since this deal is that the far right is feeling betrayed by Trump that and the left is embracing Trump because the far right thinks that they're giving up

We have to leave it there.

Ethan Bramer, thank you so much, and thank you to Alyssa Odenheimer and Dan Williams for their journalism out of Tel Aviv today. The headline and let me tell you this may not be the headline in twenty minutes. Israel says new demands by Hamas casting doubt on Gaza deal.

We'll be stay abreast of that shakra through the day, and I know.

David gerin the Big Take focused on it with a good effort in the last twelve hours as well.

This is the Bloomberg Surveillance Podcast. Listen live each weekday starting at seven am Eastern on Applecarplay and Android Auto with the Bloomberg Business app. You can also watch us live every weekday on YouTube and always on the Bloomberg terminal.

It's a daily look at the front pages. Lisa, what do you go?

Well, we talked about this yesterday, but we didn't get into a d detail because we had a ton of bank eardings.

We had CPI.

It was a crazy day yesterday. But this is about the FDA banning artificial dye red three from being used in food because it's being linked to cancer. I mean, this is something that's used in like candy, cold medicine, some drugs as well baking decorations. But what's crazy is that thirty years ago the FDA banned this from being used in cosmetics because they found that tumors linked to

Going.

I did, Damien, what you would do.

I went and looked at those fancy, overpriced cherries I have to buy for Manhattan's and I.

Was comforted they're completely free of red dye.

Well, Tommy shows what I know. I thought it was banned thirty years ago. I didn't know it was cosmetics only. I mean, if you can't put it on your face, how are you allowed to eat?

You eat it?

Right?

Exactly so? And yet it's in so many different things, right, I mean from sprink too. I mean, I don't you tell me.

So much, morning Star Farms, plant based bacon strips. I know, Tom, those are in your fridge. So the plant based bacon strips.

Okay, so you're gonna.

Have to take them out. But if this is just the beginning, it's it's it goes beyond this, because they're looking at red number forty like it's gonna keep continuing. So which which is a good mix?

What do you go?

Okay?

So Google signed this deal with the Associated Press to deliver up to date news through its Gemini AI chatbot. The reason this is big is because this is Google's first deal with the news publisher. So nobody saying how much Google is gonna pay AP for the content. But you'd start to notice a lot of these news publications. First they were starting to license their information to train these AI systems, and that was a big deal.

And even speed over accuracy. Tom. It seems as a focus on getting the news to people quicker, regardless of whether it's right or wrong. So I think, you know, there's gonna be some sacrifices and some bumps along the road. But if Twitter is sorry X, is any indication of where we're headed with that? I think I think we should expect more of the thing from Google.

Yeah.

No, most definitely. And they even talk about this like going forward with entertainment, like it's entertainment going to start licensing movies and films to these AI companies that was talking about that.

It's all Nason. I mean, Nason, you know, we really don't know where we are right now, right, Okay? True? What else do you have?

Okay?

So Super Bowl right, big time for commercials. But State Farm pulling out their ads because of everything that's going on with the Los Angeles fires. They're saying they received over seventy four hundred home auto claims. They're putting tens of millions of dollars back into the customer's hands, and they expect that to rise because as more residents start to go back and assess the damage that's happened to their homes. But It's like it's spotlight on the insurance industry.

This could be fascinating to see.

Instagram's are very strong on this, different people talking about the tragedy that we're witnessing.

One thing that would help would be LA's strong Are the rams Damian?

Are the rams in the game like the rams are on the game. But I want to be very serious here for one minute. You know, we were at Crefzy we were talking about, you know, the LA wildfires and what does that mean for migration patterns out of LA. I mean, think about where people are obviously going to go. They're going to try and first go south. They're gonna go to Newport Beach. They're gonna try and go to San Diego. But then where do they go when they can't afford that and prices get ramped up?

Right?

Do they go to Phoenix? I mean do they go to I mean come back to New York. I can tell you this Tom, A lot of people are not staying in Los Angeles after this one. I think you're going to see some migration outward. Yeah, Well, it's discussion and by the way, We're not going to get Danny DeVito and I don't know Schwartz and the going the Super Bowl either, So I mean, come on, I mean, what are we talking about. Wasn't that big State Farm commercial last year in the Super Bowl.

Yeah?

Yeah, We're doing an honor of Damien and tanned and resteders today.

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