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David Kelly is a jewel. He writes incredibly informed work. He did this for years at Putnam, now holds court at JP Morgan Roshrild. You could get our holiday week here. Started strong, strong, strong, David, You start with I love this the Red River of the North up in the Dakotas and Manitoba up to Lake Winnipeg. And you're talking about the crazy river system of our North in Canada as well. Why is it like the stock market.
Well, the key at that particular river is it flows from south to north, which is actually very unusual in America for a big river. But that's actually a really big problem in the spring because what happens is when the ice tolls, it all tolls in the south. First, it all floods in. But the water can all flood
into the river. It's just got nowhere to come out, and so at inun dates say, you know, Grand Forks and Winnipeg and all these poor cities just get flooded because there's no way way for the water to get out. And the reason that's relevant to the stock market is we've been looking at you know, this has been it's a tortoise of an economy sort of you know, crawling, you know, staggering to the edge of the end of the year here. But we've had a hair of a
market for a third consecutive year. Why is the market so strong when the economy is And I think part of the reason is because there are institutional things within our market, things like stock buybacks, embedded capital gains, money flowing into defined contribution plans.
All this is.
Funneling money into the equity market and it's hard to get it out because of you know, capital gainstown. That's pushing money into giving us a really strong stock market and what's an okay economy, But it's not nothing to write home about it.
So, you know, David, we had, as you mentioned, a really strong twenty twenty five in terms of S and P and NASDAC fixed income gave you high single digit returns here. Yeah, what's the setup for twenty twenty six?
Well, I think the economy itself should be okay.
I think it's going to be strong in the first half because of income tax refunds. I think we will see a pickup in growth in the first half the year, and then it's going to fade because we really are short of workers. For the market. We still probably need to see a shock to cause a big correction here. You know, eventually we will have some shock. Evaluations are
very high. But you know, I think the base case is the market keeps on The equity market keeps on moving up, probably broadens out a bit beyond the mag seven and you know, it continues sort of broadening out to other sectors. But for investors, the real thing is,
you know, how much risk are you carrying? Because these are expensive stocks at this point, and I think really the resolution for twenty twenty six is rebalance because you know, whatever happens to returns, the risk level is pretty high.
Here are the earnings that we see out there. I mean, the earnings in twenty twenty five have been really really strong. Here are they strong enough as you look forward to kind of support this market?
Yeah, I think they should be.
I mean, it's a as I said, it's a moderately growing economy, so long as we avoid recession. One of the things that I'm seeing is a fair amount of weakness and wages. I mean, there aren't many available workers, but workers still can't get a pay increase. And meanwhile
companies are installing AI. Now I don't know if that's making people more productive or not, but they say it's making them more productive, and so people are and so productivity numbers are going up because you've got fewer workers and producing more output, and that helps corporate profits too. So overall, I think the profit picture is pretty good.
I think the rate pricket picture is pretty stable, and that should support the stock markets, barring some shop but of course there's always the potential for a shop.
We starts throwing Monday. David Kelly with us for an extended conversation. He drives GP Morgan Asset Management with all of their strategy. David one of my great insights and folks in my last two days of the year here, I'm really going to look back here. One of the great insights this year was Nancy Wilazar, who David and I know for years with Edheimen. Nancy's up in Minnesota with Piper, Jeffrey and David. She just said, look, it's an economy where there's an odd job creation. You let
on this two years ago. You're the one that said, get used to non farm payrolls under one hundred thousand. Do you adjust liked your own Powell and are you giving me a real three month moving average? Now that's a negative statistic of payroll growth.
It's very close.
I mean, I think we're talking about somewhere in the range of minus fifty to plus fifty is the trend rate. It might pick up a little early next year. But we're out of workers. I mean, we don't have good immigration data at all. The governments stopped producing a lot of data that we need in order to figure out exactly what's going on with the growth in the working age population. But as far as I can tell, it's shrinking. And it's very hard to grow jobs when you're shrinking
the working age population. But that actually has a feedback loop in the overall economy. You know, I don't know if you remember says law from your economic theories classes, but the idea that supply creates its own demand. If you pull back in the number of workers a night, and you know, you don't open a restaurant because hey, you couldn't stop the restaurants. So those jobs don't get created.
You know, the meals don't get served, the houses don't get built from the people who don't want to are around to live in them.
So the lack of labor supply is slowing the economy in itself.
Right, says Law Paul at Trinity College. Is they open the Guinness brewery yep, And if they manufacture the Guinness, it somehow it gets consumed. That says Law out of David Kelly's Ireland. I look, David at the job economy and I look at the worry out there, and to me it becomes a political monetary policy. Can economists nor a negative non firm payroll trend? Well, I think it probably.
I think if it continued into the first six months of next year, then I think the FED would ease earlier. But I think I think we'll see a little pick up, as I said, because of income tax refunds. I think we'll see a pickup and growth, and I think that will stench the bleeding for for a while, but then you know, maybe later next year we do get rate cuts, but I want to make it clear rate cuts won't
fix anything here. The problem, the problems that this economy faces have got nothing to do with interest rates or interest rates being.
Too high anyway.
So yes, it may force the Federal Reserve into cutting more aggressively later next year if the economy, if we don't sort of put some more artificial stimulus into the economy, which we may well do.
David at JPM, we're going to ask the management, how do you guys think about alternative investments?
Well, we think a lot about them.
Were we were very conscious of the fact you're just talking about how good a year has been for the stock market and the bond market has given you positive returns despite a fair amount of inflation. That means that a sort of sixty to forty stock bond portfolio, it's pretty expensive and people really need to diversify and reduce risk. But one of the key ways they can do that is investing in alternatives things like infrastructure, transportation, real estate,
also private equity and private credit. But you've got to know who's managing that money. But we definitely believe that all investors need to think about having some alternatives in the portfolio beyond the public markets, because the public markets do have a certain amount of risk, and by the way, there's also a lot of opportunity in private markets.
The companies don't want to go public, and.
So a lot of the explosion of ideas around technology and AI and biotech.
And so forth, they're all occurring in the private market space. So you really want to be able to access some of that.
So yeah, I think it's beyond time for people to when people can just afford to ignore alternatives, I think people really need to think about their alternative as it go into twenty twenty six.
So, David, I mean I can sit here in a two year treasuring get you know, three point five percent. That's a nice coupon relative the last ten or fifteen years. Is that good enough in the fixed income space? Or should I be taking some credit risk here?
I wouldn't take too much credit risk.
I think.
I think I'd want to have, you know, maybe a little bit more duration than that, but not much. I don't think there's much money to be made in fixed income, but I think that it does help stabilize a portfolio.
So I wouldn't be underweight fixed income.
I wouldn't take much credit risk because credit spreads are really tight, and if you do have a recession, then you know these credit spreads are going to blow out and you're going to get hurt. So I just don't think you're getting paid for taking risk in the bond market.
The melting ice, to your analog of the dakotas enough to Winnipeg. The melting ice is the yield on money market funds. You got some compete, They can do the math over there, you know, I mean for Oley, Casman, Santo's the rest of them. Maybe Kelly, what's the math of when the dam breaks on money market funds, what's the yield or the ice melts?
You know, I don't think that.
What usually happens is as those rates come down, you think a whole pile of money will come out of money market funds. But what happens is people get scared more and more scared that something is seriously going wrong here.
It depends, you know, if.
We have recession, I would expect money to pile out of the money market funds to go into the bond market. But if it's if it's sort of a recession plus inflation threat, because we're going to get more stimulus in an economy that's supply constrained.
If it's that kind of story of twenty twenty two all over.
Again, I think the money will sit in money market funds even if the Fed gets strong armed in the pushing rates down, because people will be genuinely scared of long term assets.
So David, in the equity markets, the US equity markets, the last two or three years, really it's kind of been an AI trade, a mag seven, all that kind of stuff.
Here.
Folks that have been waiting for a broadening out, They've been waiting a long time. Here is twenty twenty six a year or maybe we can get some broadening out.
It could be.
I mean, marketing markets can remain irrational longer than the insolvent, as somebody said many many years.
Ago, so it could broaden out. I think it is.
If we have a big correction or a bear market, it will broaden out because we know that that the epicenter of any bear market is going to be the area of greatest speculation before it occurred. So I think that I think that I think there's a good chance that have brought out at some stage here.
But the other thing to think.
About is, you know, when you look at these mammoth companies who are pouring money into their version of AI, they're all making the same bet, and they've all got these sort of quasi monopolistic profits which are funneling into an enormous amount of spending on data centers and chips to be the AI superpower. But they can't all be
AI superpower. So even within the mag seven there's a there's a lot of risk there that they're all chasing after a goal, you know, a brass ring that all of them cannot achieve, and maybe none of them can achieve if you know, China gets there first.
David trees to the sky. Paul asked about earnings as well. Four years double digit return. It's happened like I think three times since the Irish kicked the English out of David Kelly's Ireland. David, come on, I mean, there's a point where this breaks. What should our listeners in viewers study and observe to try to get a bit out front of when the market breaks.
Well, I think I think the first thing is look at that AI trade and look at the some of the big players there. Is it going to come a point where people get skittish about some of the players in this space whether they will be the winners. Because if it looks like you're not going to be the winner, then should you be putting all.
This money into it? And if you shouldn't, then you know, what's your business model looking like.
So I think that's that's one area of vulnerability. And then also, FRANKU keep an eye on the politics.
Of all of this.
I mean, I'm very worried that.
We're going to try to do tariff rebate checks, which we'll just you know, if we pour more consumer stimulus into the economy before the midterm elections when we're supply constrained, we're going to reignite inflation.
And that is certainly a fear.
If our political system is not capable of dealing with the moment with some sort of sobriety, we do have a problem. I think that's the other thing people should keep an eye on. But more generally, look, we don't know where the next shock is going to come from. That's why you go into next year with some sort of balance. So regardless of how you try and figure out the risks, look at your portfolio is that more risk than you should be taking. If it is, how can you in a tax efficient.
Way get to more balance? And I think that's a real question for twenty twenty six.
David, Thank you so much. Just a great way to start this holiday with David Kelly with This is Forever of JP. Stay with us. More from Bloomberg Surveillance coming up after this.
You're listening to the Bloomberg Surveillance podcast. Catch us live weekday afternoons from seven to ten am Eastern Listen on Apple Karplay and Android Otto with the Bloomberg Business app, or watch us live on YouTube.
We have the perfect guest after the certitude. Whatever you think of the politics and all that, the certitude of Stephen Myron. Here, George Borri with us right now, who writes in a wonderfully measured approach to fixed income for Allspring Global Investments. He's chief investment strategist fixed income at the firm. George, I look at forget about the theory. The certitude of Stephen Myron is breathtaking. What anybody if I more In the day we lost Marty Feldstein as
PhD advisor. If Professor Feldstein was sitting here, I be saying, are you kidding me, professor? Did you teach him this certitude? When you hear that certitude of opinion from a legits, how do you react.
I think there were two very strong messages in what he had to say, and the first is, really, you know, the easing bias is very much in place if there's a mixed view. But as he said, you know, Chairman Powell's done a good job of wrangling the committee that the committee itself seems biased to continue down this eating easing path until until data says otherwise. And then secondly, you know, they seem committed to wanting to extend the cycle and trying to engineer not just a soft landing,
but an ongoing expansion. And I thought what was really interesting is talking about that balance between supply and demand, very economic driven basic principles. But if both are expanding at the same time, that really is the ultimate cycle extension, and it sounds as if the FED is committed to doing that.
I was going backing for the David gerb this we're commercial free folks at the top of the hour. Let me get one more impulse, George Bory, I look at this and I go, okay, we're going to get a Myron vector to lower interest rates. I'm not sure it benefits they have nots. Let's say it benefits they have in the financialization of America. You're living this every day. Yeah, if you get a Myron vector, it's like boom, right.
I think there are three big factors that are going to drive through markets next year very much bond market focus. Number One, cash is on the move. If the FED is the FED is biased to ease, then that eight trillion dollars in money markets and in short term deposits are going to be looking for other places to go.
And in a world where inflation still remains up around that three percent level, the free trade, the easy trade is over, You're going to need to move that cash into something else, and so moving out into short duration bonds seem likely. The second is the curve. The curve itself kind of came down a little bit, yields came down a little bit this year. Year sounds as if we're going to see more of a twist next year that front end coming down, the long end could actually
start going up again. And so I think that that actually is a really big theme that bond investors are going to contend with. And then the last you talk
about haves and have nots. If we look at the corporate side of the economy, you know, event risk defaults, m and A, the AI build out, the drawdown of cash in the system to sort of spend money on things has kind of a mixed impact on credit markets, and credit markets themselves are seeing a pretty big kind of increase in dispersion and would suggest that we're in the later stages of a credit cycle, not the end,
but very much the later phase. And so these three big themes are going to be what bond investors and any investor really is.
Going to have to contend with now.
Navigating that's going to require some maneuverability in your portfolio if you do it well. You know, for bond investors, you know, mid to high single digit returns is sort of what you're shooting for. That's kind of the best we can hope for. But it's not going to just come to you. The beta trade, if you will happened in twenty five, next year twenty six, you're going to have to move it around a little to actually achieve those kind of returns.
How about if some of that cash mews into municipal debt, particularly for those in high tex jurisdictions.
Yeah, munis still look very attractive relative to other bonds. You know, yields have not moved down as much as we've seen in the taxable side of the market, and so in the world of munis, where you've got the benefit of high ratings, you've got balanced budgets at the state levels, and you still have very good income streams coming through, we think there's really good value in munis and it's a nice way to kind of add to
that portfolio. The tax advantage is huge for the haves, and so we'll see good demand over the course of the year, and they're going to be very susceptible to those three basic themes of moving out of cash, twisting, curve growing, event risk.
So it's not really ire act. But let's ask what's a single point ten year yield for you twelve months out.
I think twelve months we're probably right around four percent fan distribution four percent, we're down a little, down a little.
So what does a thirty year mortgage do if we have curve steepening. Yeah, this is a surprise here. It doesn't come in.
It doesn't come down much because the thirty year could be back up above five, and so the twist is actually very much around that tenure.
Part of the curve.
Front end comes down about twenty five basis point, long end goes up a little. Mortgages don't come down that much.
Which are a surveillance real estate course. Paul Sweeneer. That's grim.
That is grim because I think if you talk to some real estate agents, they say they need to see something with a five handle to get people to maybe leave.
Their homes and put stuff up for sale. I mean, Myron's got the trend right here. We got to go here like one minute. But George, if Myron, if sort of Myron happens and the FED cuts rates, what, I'm sorry, what does it do to a sixty forty portfolio. It's like it's the edge of nerve. It's like what member, when your father made the charcoal fire and you took the guests, they can squeezed, Yes, welcome. Isn't that what we're talking about?
It certainly should heat things up, and that's that's that's for certain. And so you know that's why we think this kind of late cycle, you know, sort of phenomena is upon us. It's why you know, intermediate short part of the curve, and you're going to be forced out of cash. That is the accelerator. That's exactly what we're talking about for all of us.
Thank you so much for your commitment to Bloomberg Surveillance. George Bourrien's just really he's all Spring investors. Stay with us. More from Bloomberg Surveillance coming up after this.
This is the Bloomberg Surveillance Podcast. Listen live each weekday starting at seven am Eastern on Applecarplay and Android Auto with the Bloomberg Business app. You can also listen live on Amazon Alexa from our flagship New York station, Just say Alexa play Bloomberg eleven thirty.
Let's move on to Michael Purvis and look at the sanity here. Michael, you and I have seen mean Paul's ever seen it like this, the stupid season in M and A. You've got really a lot of experience in this. Michael Purvis, how does the certitude of transactions and combinations, how does it end? Well?
I think for the near term and near term in this context may being twenty twenty six, I think we should expect.
More m and A.
And one of the reasons why I say that is because on one hand, you're seeing reasonably strong equity markets and some stability and rates, and you know, you look at treasury volatility that's much lower. Rates may not be as low as some would like, but the rate volatility is lower. It's that's a platform. But I think the other sort of overarching theme here is that, you know, we have this K shaped economy, but I also think there's sort of a K shaped stock market dynamic as well.
And we've talked a little bit about this in the past time. But what I mean by that is that with AI and with re orienting supply chains, globally, scale matters, right, Larger companies are able to sort of manage through these transitions better than smaller ones in many cases. There So I think you're going to keep seeing smaller medium sized companies merging to get scale so that they can survive and thrive in this new era.
And we're seeing that just with the news that Tom and I were discussing just a moment ago with a Paramount and Warner Brothers Discovery, Michael talk to us about kind of the risk outlook for twenty twenty six. Again, the stocks and bonds and commodities are just ripping in twenty twenty five. How do we set up for twenty twenty six?
Look, I think broadly speaking, the macro that like, we have a good sort of macro set up for risk appetite, right in terms of you know, we've got sort of warm maybe hot monetary policy. We've got some warmth and fiscal policy currently you know here on top of reasonably strong earnings growth, on top of a not perfect but decent enough economy.
Uh there.
But I think the the there's one big risk here for certainly just talking more about equities here.
Than than than than rates.
But if you look at the MAG six or the MAG seven that you know, if you look at the outperformance over the last several years that has basically matched this wonderful performance in the stock market in the US
stock market here. But right now, these big companies, particularly the big cap X spenders here you know, which is you know, Meta, Amazon, Google and UH and Microsoft, those companies are going through evaluation transitioned here where like if you look at the price earnings to growth ratio, things look great, very compelling price earnings to growth ratio is at zero point eight right now.
Low, very very low level.
But their fee cash flow yields are at record lows right and their free cash fowields or record lows, not because earnings are bad or even Dad's going to be bad, but simply because of the capex spend. So what I'm looking for, Paul in twenty twenty six is that if there's indications that the return on invested capital from this capex spend is not there, then you're going to have a lot of narratives rewritten, and you're also going to have valuations we set lower for these key stocks there.
And that to me is like micro risk is almost a macro risk because we're talking about, you know what, a trillion dollars in spend from just four companies over the next twenty four months there, So that really flows through to everything.
Michael Purvis with us for a good conversation this morning to get set for twenty twenty six.
We welcome all.
Of you usin nation the way you listen to us Good Morning ninety nine one FM, Nathan Ager Radio in Washington, ninety two nine FM in Boston, and Bloomberg eleven three You and New York, but around the world on YouTube. Subscribe to Bloomberg Podcast. Make it a habit for next year when you can. It's a great live chat there. But most importantly people watch and people listen to YouTube. Well it's on. It's been a huge success for us this year. Paul Sweeny with Michael Purvis.
Michael talk to us about kind of the earnings environment out there. We've had really really strong earnings in twenty twenty five, particular last couple of quarters. How do you think about the earnings growth for twenty twenty six? Is that enough to support this market? Paul, It's a tricky one.
I think if you you know, I look at the S and P as sort of like a holding company with two divisions that at one of which maybe the big tech monsters and then the everything else at a very simplistic level, so you can look at the SPX equal Weight Index sort of a PROX for everything but the NAG seven and if you look at that earnings growth year over years sort of four percent, can it beat that? Well, it will need to a have some decent nomenal GDP to go along with that that I think I expect.
I think the.
Harder one is whether the margins will really be there to support support that embedded in that four percent earnings growth.
That's that's not in my number.
That's Bloomberg spottom Up consensus estimates our record earning, earning and operating margins, which are to a degree reflect the adoption of a successful adoption.
Of AI and productivity gains within these companies there.
So I think, you know, it's not a big number, they have beaten that number in the past. But it's also you know, if we run into sort of a more of a stagulationary dynamic and that starts really hitting some parts of the economy, the bottom end consumer already seeing weakness there, then I think the SPH equal weight is not very compelling. By the way, you know, we
were talking about price earnings to growth ratios. If you look at the price earnings to growth ratio for the SBAT equal way or for a lot of value in cyclical industries in the US stock market, those are very high there. So they really need to perform on earnings just to justify your current valuations there.
What's your appetite for the timing of the market. I mean, you've been so good about Look, you've got to be in the market to play. You've been legendary on that. But is timing efficacious now?
Look, I mean technicals are always really important here. Look at my very short term trading call is I think we're going to have a nice sort of Santa drift up higher in the year end here, probably led by
large tech shares. That said, if you zoom out and you look at long term technical charts, you know you're looking at US at trading at high valuations, at the very high end of a you know, sort of a fifteen year channel coming out of the Great Financial Crisis there, and typically there's some significant volatility in the following.
Year that follows that.
If you're at the top end of the channel there, Momentum signals are are are a little mixed right now, depending on what you're looking at. Generally, I think they're pretty constructive, but not as constructive as they are for gold and silver.
Well for Global Wall Street. I think you got to interrupt and do this. This is reporting off our Tokyo desk on Japan. This is with the Finance Minister Satsuki Kadayama in conversation with Bloomberg. This is a reporting and Bloomberg reports the Finance Minister says Japan can take action is set out in US. Japan join a cord, we have a Japan has a freehand for bold action in
FX market if needed. This is about this strange thing called intervention and will they intervene to drive the end stronger. Carl Weinberg, among others at High Frequency Economic Paul has an absolutely blistering noe doubt that this is not going to work up well. Intervention is not going to be efficacious for Japan.
Japan ten year yields surged to highest since nineteen ninety nine, occurring to when we're reporting there, So that gets your attention there, Michael, talk to us about the fix income opportunities in twenty twenty six. Twenty twenty five was a good year. I mean high single digit returns. I mean people actually want to hang out with fixing gum people these days.
What do you think about next year?
Well, just to pick up on this Japanese yield question, I think it's important you know, what's going on with the end is sort of what we had in the first half of the dollar which is that you saw currencies really decouple from their respective real rate differentials, and
I think that's that's important there. And I do think that the you know, we you can sort of feel it and see it a little bit in the back end of the treasury curve, that the end the movements in jgb's and Japanese yields are being exported a little bit to our treasury market here there. And if you look at the you know, sort of the spread and make differentials, you can see that same echo and the ten R ten thirty curve here there. So I feel like that's that's sort of a new factor that we
need to consider here. That's not you know, sort of an unhealthy type of curve steepening here. All that said, I think what I'm predicting is sort of a pretty boring year in rates. For all the drama about the FED and inflation and all that kind of stuff, all of which are very warranted discussions and debates. I'm expecting the treasury revolve to get lower. I'm expecting you know,
one to two cuts. I'm expecting a fair amount of descent within the FED, which I think actually suppresses treasure evolve and I think we should see some some curve steepening that the end, if the FED does cut more than perhaps it should, you're.
Going to see that echo.
Just you know, the more dubbish you get, the more term premian you get on the back end there.
But I think it all sort of ends up keeping the and.
You're in a range, And I got to be quick here, Michael. We got to go to breaking news that Detroit Lions lost. But you know, Michael, I'm looking at curve steepening. It's clearly nonlinear. How close are we to wear curve steepening really matters?
Well, Look, I you know, in terms of these existential questions as to when you know the tenure is going to spiral out of control and hit six percent, I'm those are always tailor rists to consider. I think right now, I think it would be such a problem for every facet of the US economy and market and political headaches that I sort of think that there'll be something done
in that respect. But I may not necessarily be the right way, But I do think one of the things to consider next year is if that if we start seeing an unhealthy spiraling of term premium, does the FED do something on the back end on it's with its balance sheet.
Michael that's something you have to consider.
And Michael, thank you so much. He goes up. He's on squam Lake even if it's like fifty bulow zero. Yeah, okay, Santa first ye Michael purpose with Tallbeck and thank you so much. Greatly appreciate it. Stay with us. More from Bloomberg Surveillance coming up after this.
This is the Bloomberg Surveillance Podcast. Listen live each weekday starting at seven am Eastern on Apple Coarcklay and Android Auto with the Bloomberg Business app. You can also listen live on Amazon Alexa from our flagship New York station, Just say Alexa, play Bloomberg eleven thirty with our newspapers.
Okay, did either.
You go to the movies over the weekend? No? Didn't see the Avatar?
No?
Oh my goodness. Okay, A bunch of people did that. A lot of people did. They did, And that's the thing walked to day the Avatar Fire and Ash highest grossing film in the box office, eighty eight million tickets US and Canada. They were a little bit lower than expected, even Disney was expecting about ninety million or so. It
did well internationally though, that was a big thing in China. Yeah, exactly, particularly in China, and where's the sand domestically, So if you compare the other Avatar film, so it surpassed the first Avatar film that was back in two thousand and nine. It fell behind the recent sequel, Avatar The Way of Water in twenty twenty two. But I mean this is going to keep making money. I mean, the kids are going to be off, families are off, and it's going
to keep pulling in some money. I mean, Disney has been pretty good. Lelo and stitch Utopia too, they both generated more than a billion dollars at the global.
Box Lie, it's four hundred year, it's a lot. One hundreds used to be like a huge deal. Yeah, what do you spend four hundred million on to make a two hour movie?
CGI? Computer generated images all that kind of stuff. But I tell you again, the real big story here is China is reopening its market to Western films.
And that's big.
Because Topia think, well there's yeah, so.
That's right because it was closed, you know, kind of after the pandemic for many many years. So that's good news for hollyween.
I can see paula Netflix. You're sure he could do like a daily squak for Netflix. Yes, absolutely, what do you got next?
Okay, online shopping, right, it's been hurting foot traffic in stores. So what a lot of retailers are doing, and the Wall Street Journal has this about Fao Schwartz, is that they're doing a lot of in store experiences to get the customers back. So like personal shopping tours, customized toys. They're trying to do things. I'll give you an example. Okay, so people are paying one hundred dollars for a private shopping tour, and then those families go on to spend
you know, hundreds of more dollars on the toys. Then for two hundred and fifty dollars, you can get a longer tour session. You can get drinks at the VIP suite, you can get shipping arrange for your purchases, and are you ready for the top tier? Okay, three thousand, seven hundred and fifty dollars for that. You can get a tour for the family. Someone is dressed as a toy soldier. It's after the store's closed, so you have the whole
thing to yourself. There's dinner, there's a magician, there's everything like that. So they're basically appealing to like the higher end you know customer that are doing this. But it's a lot of competition because I feel short store to be fifty ninth and fifth. But they closed, yopened, yes, so now they have reopened.
Can I just there was a certain value to the eventness of the Sears catalog in the living room floor and you'd skip the front end with clothes for women and you'd go to the back end where there were silver tone guitars and you know, I mean it was like you know catalog, the series catalog is. It was like three inches thick, big thick thing and then you just lined it up for your parents. That was that was the event.
They used to have the toys arrest one too. I know, it was the thing.
And now it's three thousand bucks the in store experience experience.
Oh this is a doozy. Jake Paul went down on Netflix.
Yes it was.
I totally watched it off Friday.
It was beat by Anthony josh you know, former heavyweight champ. All right, so he's he's a little bit younger, you know, Jake Paul's twenty eight, Joshua was thirty six, but Jason was also six foot six. He hit the scale of two forty three. Jake Paul, I didn't realize he had six foot one, but he weighed about two sixteen. But it was a sixth round knocked him out. I think even broke his jaw. Jake Paul was posting about that too, but he earned nearly one hundred million dollars.
From it from losing the badge.
But it just goes to show you sports on Netflix, like this is another big thing because you had the Jake Paul Mike Tyson fight and now you know this one.
Yep.
So a lot of people tuned in. We don't have the numbers yet, but a lot of people.
Nice.
Okay, Netflix is just riding high.
I went below fifty ninth Street. Wow, sweet New York police and greeted me. I just saw some of the Christmas chair.
Yeah, the newspapers.
Lisa Mantello, thank you so much.
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