Markets and a Possible September Rate Cut - podcast episode cover

Markets and a Possible September Rate Cut

Aug 04, 202532 min
--:--
--:--
Download Metacast podcast app
Listen to this episode in Metacast mobile app
Don't just listen to podcasts. Learn from them with transcripts, summaries, and chapters for every episode. Skim, search, and bookmark insights. Learn more

Episode description

Watch Tom and Paul LIVE every day on YouTube: http://bit.ly/3vTiACF.
Bloomberg Surveillance hosted by Tom Keene & Paul SweeneyJuly 31st, 2025
Featuring:
1) Lori Calvasina, Head of US Equity Strategy at RBC Capital Markets, offers her S&P target and talks about risks to the market and whether US government data can be trusted. Stocks clawed back some of last week’s steep losses as equity investors pinned their hopes on the Federal Reserve to ride to the rescue with interest-rate cuts following Friday’s dismal US jobs data.
2) Kathy Jones, Chief Investment Strategist, Fixed Income at Charles Schwab, on how the bond market could punish President Trump for firing the BLS chief, or whether the warnings will go unheeded and the market will continue to rally. Treasuries pared last week’s gains, with yields on the 10-year climbing three basis points to 4.25%. The US 10-year yield had dropped 16 basis points Friday, while policy-sensitive two-year yields fell 28 basis points.
3) Kara Murphy, CIO at Kestra Investment Management, brings us into the market open and talk about asset allocation and the equity outlook. Friday’s tumble on Wall Street — sparked by rising US unemployment and slower job creation — boosted bets on a Fed rate cut to support the economy. Traders rushed into Treasuries despite worries about the inflationary effect of President Trump’s tariffs, which have kept policy makers in hawkish mode.
4) Sevasti Balafas, CEO at GoalVest Advisory, discusses the true risks to the market following a big week of eco moves last week and how clients are positioning.
5) Lisa Mateo joins with the latest headlines in newspapers across the US, including a WSJ story on graduate school and the New York Times' story on Curtis Sliwa's appearance as he runs for NYC mayor.

See omnystudio.com/listener for privacy information.

Transcript

Speaker 1

Bloomberg Audio Studios, podcasts, radio news. This is the Bloomberg Surveillance Podcast. Catch us live weekdays at seven am Eastern on Apple CarPlay or Android Auto with the Bloomberg Business App. Listen on demand wherever you get your podcasts, or watch us live on YouTube.

Speaker 2

Lorid Cavalcina Drench.

Speaker 3

She's said of US equity strategy for RBC Capital Markets, Larie, what have you seen so far in earnings that you like maybe.

Speaker 4

Don't like it?

Speaker 2

How's the guide in shaping up for you?

Speaker 5

It's a great question. I'm going to get over the fact that you said it's only been three hundred and thirty five companies, which means we still have ways to go. That's our depressing thought for the morning. But now look, I think the tagline we've been using is fine but not fabulous, and I might put a comma after that. Now after having gone through last week where I think we had one hundred and fifty five companies, and I would say, comma starting to look messy? Okay, And you know,

I think the overall headline stats are fine. The rate of upward revisions to F y one and f y two is like sixty one sixty two percent. That's moved up from the mid fifties. That's all well and good. You know, we watch very closely the Bloomberg Intelligence data where they track the bottom up consensus estimates, and those have crept up for both twenty twenty five and twenty twenty six. If you think about guidance, we've also been looking at some Bloomberg data for this as well, and

so the guidance stats look pretty good. The problem is, I think a lot of this was well anticipated, and so you know, coming into reporting season, I heard clients talking about FX tailwinds. Guess what stocks aren't reacting all that well to beats on FX. I've been hearing that from my analysts. And if you think about, you know, some of these adjustments to guidance, because hey, the tariff rate isn't as bad as we initially baked in. Clients knew that was coming as well. So you know, I

think some of this is falling flat. And when we're looking at you know, the demand discussion, frankly, was their push in, was their you know pull forward? Were their delays? I mean, it still sort of seems to be all of the above. The tech companies sound pretty good. I don't think there's been too much interruption on the AI story. But outside of that, it seems like there's a lot of confusion as to how much you know, kind of pull in actually happened. You're seeing some companies say there's

a little bit, you know, of improvement. You know, some of that paralysis is alleviating. But frankly, Paul, I mean, the level of uncertainty still seems very, very high, and that that is concerning me right now.

Speaker 6

Well, even though we've had roughly forty percent of the market cap by the S and P five hundred reporting, now that we're past most of the tech earnings, we still have Nvidia on August twenty seventh. But of course, I mean you've noted in your notes declinents. We still have a number of consumer names coming in the next few weeks. So obviously Paul and I were talking about earlier when it comes to McDonald's, Disney, but then you

still have in a few weeks Walmart and Targets. So what are you expecting when it comes to the consumer front, and specifically what you might hear about tariffs from them?

Speaker 5

So look, I don't think it's going to be awful, but it might be a little bit of cold water. And the reason I say that is if you think about sort of how reporting sea and unfold. We always start out with the financials, and we even saw a couple of the credit card companies, you know, I think last week and the week before echoed this as well.

The financial like, hey, everything's fine. Spending is still good, and you know, like the delinquencies are low, and people are still paying their credit card bills, and you know, we're just not seeing anything wrong.

Speaker 7

And then you go and.

Speaker 5

Actually listen to the consumer companies that watch what the consumer is actually doing, and you know, maybe the word cracks is too strong, but I would say the composition of the spend is reflecting a concerned behavior. You know, one of the food companies last week actually referred to the idea of people stress eating chocolate, right that, which was probably one of my favorite quotes from last week.

But you know, we saw other companies say the consumer is under stress and that doesn't result in a collapse in consumer spending, but there are some concerning things going on, not just from the high end, but the low end as well. And the Michigan survey on Friday actually showed a downtick and consumer sentiment for low end and lowly educated consumers. So there is something amiss We're going to hear more about, that is my guess.

Speaker 6

And also promotions, because consumer package good companies, especially coming into this year, we're talking so much about those types of at the grocery store, buy one, get one fifty percent off. What are you hearing so far with any of that?

Speaker 5

So I haven't been paying quite as much attention to the promotion conversation. But this whole idea of the value seeking consumer ranging from like the high end to the low end is still very much, you know, present, and you know, I've noticed some of the food companies have been talking about things like smaller pack sizes. I mean, this is sort of going with my own lived experience as the model like two little boys to just eat

and eat and eat. So I think that that value consciousness is still translating into behavior and you're seeing it, you know, especially for these food companies. There's another company I forget who it was, but they were talking about how food has just become so much more expensive that it's radiating in terms of other purchase decisions, and so they can really see where consumers are prioritizing their.

Speaker 2

Spend small bit stocks, what's the call these days?

Speaker 5

So, you know, it's interesting with all these developments in the last like forty eight trading hours. You know, I think the FED meeting last week through some cold water on the small cap trade and Friday was a little bit of a mix, right because on the one hand, you know, we got this jobs report that said, Okay, there may be some deterioration in the labor market that's beyond what people had assumed. That is bad for small caps. You needs, you need jobs growth to be ramping, to

be getting better for small caps to outperform. Typically flat to decelerating jobs growth doesn't work for them. That being said, small caps have become the hedge fund communities one of their favorite ways to express FED bets. And so you know, when people sort of settled down, you know, and started to think about, you know, okay, maybe the cuts are

coming sooner. That feels we'll see how they trade today, but that feels like it should breathe a little bit of life into markets and a little bit of life into small caps. So I would not be short small caps, but I'm not I don't have enough conviction to go a long yet either, I'd be neutral.

Speaker 6

If you go to the S and P five hundred and then the A our function in the terminal, you can see where those consensus estimates are for cell site targets. And I know, LORI yours is a sixty two to fifty for year end right now. That actually just in play about a two tenths of a percent increase from where the S and P five hundred closed on Friday.

So what's your view for the second half of the year when we're in what's historically the most seasonally weak time period in August and September for equities.

Speaker 5

Yeah, so look, we you know, targets have been tough this year, right And I think for us it's designed to articulate the path that we think the market is on, and the path that we think the market is on. We feel like it's a fairly neutral one. We see risks on both sides. I do think the sentiment rally we've seen since April eighth, that's been consistently our most bullish modeling, and that feels like it's kind of done at the recent highs about what it's supposed to do.

It feels like we're ahead of twenty twenty five fundamentals, and it feels like we've already priced in a lot of good news from twenty twenty six. And my concern is that maybe twenty twenty six, while not terrible, ends up not being crie as rosy as everybody thinks. So that could create some volatility. And as you mentioned, Jess, I mean, this is seasonal. If you even just look the last five years, August is kind of mixed, September

and October tend to be bad. And if you went back and looked at the twenty eighteen trade war, that post Labor Day period was when investors really started to get concerned based on what they were hearing from companies about the ripple effects of that trade war. So I've got all that in the back of my head. I don't feel bearish. I know, when you're not as bullish as everybody else, that's the box people want to put

you in. But I feel very neutral, and so that's really what the target's trying to express.

Speaker 2

Lloyd, thank you so.

Speaker 3

Much for joining us.

Speaker 2

Really appreciate you coming in to our studio.

Speaker 3

Lori Cavacina, head of US equity strategy at RBC Capital Markets.

Speaker 1

You're listening to the Bloomberg Surveillance Podcast. Catch us live weekday afternoons from seven to ten am Eastern Listen on Applecarplay and Android Otto with the Bloomberg Business app, or watch us live on YouTube.

Speaker 2

You know what he wanted to talk to, fixing come people, cockpit parties. I mean the one in the corner. Nobody would be talking to them, no yield, no return. Now there's some of the cool kids.

Speaker 6

Now everybody wants to talk to that.

Speaker 3

One of the cool kids is Kathy Jones, chief fixed income strategists at Charles Schwab. Kathy, what's the overall called here in fixed again? What's Charles Schwab saying these days about getting how we should have some exposure to fixed income?

Speaker 4

Good morning, Paul, And no I'm not one of the cool kids yet, but I'm trying. How's sad? You know? I think that we have been in the camp since late last year keeping an intermediate term duration on average, meaning somewhere in that five to seven year area for an average duration in higher credit quality bonds. We've now

considered going a little bit longer term. We think that these jobs numbers, combined with some of the other numbers we've seen lately, do suggest to slow down and activity the greater likelihood of FED ray cuts coming, and that suggests us that it's not too risky now to extend

duration a little bit. For I'm here a ten year yield, probably not going back to four and a half five percent area, probably staying under that four and a half And if the FED does end up cutting rates, which we think they will in September, then you'll see the whole curve shift down, but you probably do a little bit better in the intermediate to longer term duration because it will be a cut as a result of slower economic growth.

Speaker 6

When you're looking at the ten year treasury yield, are we in a world we're four and a half percent? Maybe the new normal for that?

Speaker 4

Well, I think it's probably at this moment in time, the upper end of normal. But yeah, I think you know, when we look at where rates were for that long period of time, when you know, we couldn't get a conversation at a cocktail party because there were so low. Now we're going back to you know, what is considered more normal. If our normal growth rate is between one

and a half and two percent. Then a more and a half percent ten year yield given two percent inflation, say, is probably a more normal kind of standard really yield that you would get relative to history. So I think that four and a half probably the upper bound for the time being, but somewhere around four percent and a ten year is probably the new normal.

Speaker 2

Katy, I got credit risk here.

Speaker 3

I'm looking at then GO function on the Bloomberg terminal, and I see that the best performance in US fixed income has been US corporate high yield. So it looks like the market's okay taking some credit risk.

Speaker 2

How do you think about that?

Speaker 4

Yeah, you know, we're a little bit wary of going too far down the risk spectrum, the credit spectrum and fixing inkin just because you don't get paid for it. It doesn't you know, it doesn't give you much spread. And the economic fundamentals showing softness means that will probably see those default rates go up on the lowest credit quality bonds. They're a little bit careful of that. But look high yield. As long as there's no recession, you get a lot of yield in that yield is what

gives you the total return. It's been a very calm market, and that's a lot of people to hang in there in high yield. So our perspective is it's okay to have some allocation to high yield. We wouldn't over allocate to it, but you have to be ready to ride the ups and downs in that. From a long term perspective, those yields are pretty attractive and you compound them over time and that that gives you a decent total return.

But you're going to have a lot more volatility there and a lot more correlation with equities, So allocation matter, Sizing the position in high yield is really important.

Speaker 6

What's top of mind for you on the economic calendar this week? I know we have durable goods orders coming out at ten a m. New York time later this morning.

Speaker 4

Oh, jobless claims, you know, anything to do with the labor market right now is really top of mind for us because we've seen such big revisions. We've seen so much attention now to the job market. It is a bell weather for the FAD obviously because it's part of their mandate. So we'll really those weekly jobless claims take on a lot more importance now.

Speaker 3

Hey, Kathy, as a bond investor, what's this week dollar mean for you guys. I mean, we've seen the stocks bounce back, a lot of other risk assets that bounced back after the sell off earlier in the year from Liberation.

Speaker 2

Day, but the dollar really hasn't still down.

Speaker 3

The Bloomberg dollar in next is still down about eight and a half percent this year.

Speaker 2

What does that mean for bond investors?

Speaker 4

Well, I think it's a good I mean, it's a good indication that the market expects those interest rate differentials to narrow visa the say Europe and some of the other major countries. It makes international investing in bonds a bit more attractive. It's been a good ten fifteen years since that's really been an attractive option for a lot

of investors, particularly in developed markets. But now if we're going to see the dollar go down, it's a big component of return when you invest in international developed market bonds, So it means diversification actually is an opportunity. Now you still still get somewhat lower yield, but the play on the currency side, if we're right that it continues to go down, can give you pretty good returns. And actually year to date, the strongest performing sub asset class in

fixed income is international developed market bonds. Because of that dropping the.

Speaker 6

Dollar, where do you see the long end of the treasury yield curve headed and do you think that will remain more stable when you're thinking compared with the short end that could potentially rally the Fed does begin to lean more dubbish into year end.

Speaker 4

Yeah, we're still looking for a steeper yield curve with a short end kind of leaning leading rates down and the long end kind of hanging in there coming down. Seeing yields come down at the long end, But I think given that inflation is still elevated, we have components of policy that are bearish for long term bonds or at least limit the decline and yields in long term bonds.

So between deficit financing that's coming up and the inflationary impact of tariffs, most likely what we'll see is that steeper yield curve, so the whole thing shifts down, but much more at the short end that at the longer end.

Speaker 2

Kathy, thank you so much for joining us. Appreciate it as always.

Speaker 3

Kathy Jones, chief fixed income strategist at Charles Schwab.

Speaker 1

This is the Bloomberg Surveillance podcast. Listen live each weekday starting at seven am Eastern on Apple Coarclay, and Android Auto with the Bloomberg Business app. You can also listen live on Amazon Alexa from our flagship New York station, Just say Alexa play Bloomberg eleven thirty.

Speaker 3

Kara Murphy joins is she's a CIO of Kestrip Investment Management. Caar, what's the call to your clients these days? Here we've got the earning coming in. We've got to fed that I guess is going to cut once or twice this year. Is that enough to be supportive of risk assets these days?

Speaker 7

I think that's the That's the important question. And what we've seen is this like battling narrative between policy uncertainty and big changes when it comes to things like tariffs. But then underlying, when you look at companies earning potential, it continues to come in quite strong. So obviously we've seen a lot of noise from tariffs coming into you know, you saw GDP much weaker in the second quarter. You've seen earnings take a slow down in the second quarter.

Late last week we had their revised jobs numbers coming down. So it's definitely taking an impact. But then when you hear companies talk about their outlooks for the second half, those are still coming in pretty good, and so those will continue to support stock prices.

Speaker 4

Well.

Speaker 6

City Group was pointing out Stukeiser how they're crunching some of the numbers here. The S and P five hundred average stock has moved about five point two percent in either direction for the second quarter earning season, and that's the and their data history going back to twenty twelve

at this point in the earning season cycle. So I'm actually curious when you're looking at these kind of names, Kara, as far as when you're having more volatility within some of these single stocks, where are you seeing those types of opportunities and what are you buying?

Speaker 8

What are you selling?

Speaker 7

Yeah, And I think it's very interesting to point to that, because when you look at, say, like the percentage of companies who are beating estimates relative to what you typically see in history, we're pretty much on the nose with long term averages. So in terms of like the overall earnings power of the S and P five hundred companies, they are about like where we had expected them to be.

But you're right, and that what we've seen that's different this particular season is that investors are rewarding those who beat and punishing more those who miss. So I think part of this is that as you think about the rebound that we had off of the low in the market in late April, it was sort of a buy

everything type of rally. Now, as we're seeing numbers or under standing a little bit more how individual companies are impacted, you're seeing the market really differentiate between those who can earn and those who are struggling.

Speaker 5

Parah.

Speaker 3

This is an equity market that increasingly is concentrated in you know, a handful a dozen names, big tech names, and I don't know, I learned in business school that's not necessarily a good thing. How do you think about that as a risk, maybe as an opportunity, I'm not sure.

Speaker 7

I think this is definitely a risk for broad market investors. And this is one of the main risks that we had pointed to at the beginning of the year. So this high valuations and policy uncertainty. So we saw policy on uncertainty rear its ugly head in the second quarter. But then with this rebound in the market, we are back to like a super concentrated market, and as long as those like Magnificent seven names or whatever's leading the market, as long as those names continue to be able to

show earning's power, I think we're okay. That said, that concentration combined with really high valuations make a market more vulnerable. That doesn't mean it's going to turn down, but if that earnings picture starts to change, then the whole index is really at risk. So we've been, you know, big advocates. We think twenty twenty five is the year of the diversification trade, which hasn't been a very sort of sexy thing to talk about, but we've seen it actually work.

So bonds suddenly matter, Owning things outside the US suddenly matters. We think it's important to own things outside of those big names, and that's going to provide you the cushion that you need over the next couple of years.

Speaker 6

Of course, we have Palenteer reporting after the Bell today, another big name that has moved markets and especially had been added to the S and P five hundred most recently too. When you're thinking about some of these names that are coming up, what's the most important company names to you that you're going to be keeping a close eye on as far as waitings and what could move markets more so so.

Speaker 7

I think, you know, we've talked a lot about the AI trade, and obviously that's been a really important mover of the markets over the last couple of years, and it's important not just for those individual companies, but what it means for things like productivity of the US economy, you know, for the foreseeable future. Think that's going to

continue to be a trend. So being able to hear not just about the capital investments being made there that's almost easy to do, but what are the actual returns on those capital investments?

Speaker 3

Ker fixed income? What's the play here for you? Because I look at the returns on the Bloomberg Total Return in next I see corporate high yield has been the best returner this year.

Speaker 7

Yeah, and typically that's like the most correlated with equity returns. So it kind of makes sense is you have a big rallying market that that's going to perform well. That said, we have some of the same issues in that asset class that we do in some of the really large equities in that there's not a lot of risk priced into those markets. So you have extremely tight credit spreads.

That said, when we look at like corporate America overall, we think it's fairly healthy, and so we be biased towards more higher grade corporates where you can get a little bit more absolute yield, but you're not as vulnerable to say it turned down in credit.

Speaker 6

So when you're speaking with clients, what are their top concerns whenever they're speaking with you right now.

Speaker 7

Well, it often depends what side of the aisle they're on. So folks on the left of the aisle are very concerned about policy risk, political encroachment of you know, sort of economic institutions. If you're on the right side of the market, I think you feel or sorry, right side of the political isle, I think you feel a lot

better generally about the market. And they're focusing more on some of the things like the policy changes that we got with the one big beautiful bill, accelerating capital investments, that sort of thing.

Speaker 2

Karen, thanks so much for joining us.

Speaker 3

Appreciate it as always, Kara Murphy, cio of Kestre Investment Management.

Speaker 1

This is the Bloomberg Surveillance Podcast. Listen live each weekday starting at seven am Eastern on Apple cockplay and Android auto with the Bloomberg Business app. You can also watch us live every weekday on YouTube and always on the Bloomberg terminal.

Speaker 3

S a best day All office CEO O Wes Advisory. She's in our studio here, which is a very good thing. What are you doing with these markets here? I mean, boy, we've had an unbelievable volatility to get to hear the early parts of August. Now we're up eight nine percent. It's like nothing happened. But it's obviously been a very challenging, volatile year to date.

Speaker 2

How do you reset for your clients here in August.

Speaker 9

We're having lots of conversations, but to be honest, we're optimistic. We're excited about the markets moving forward. They are vulnerable, right, so we're paying attention to that. But we're having a lot of conversations with clients. For clients that don't need to have as much stock exposure, we're rebalancing, we're pulling back.

We have our cash set asides. First things first, what's your cash flow need for the next twelve eighteen months, So we have that cash aside, But for the rest of it, we're excited on equities, not only public equities, but private markets as well.

Speaker 6

When we last spoke in June, you were neutral weight equities. Are you still neutral?

Speaker 8

Still neutral weight?

Speaker 9

We still have the same mix of public equity exposure, quality growth companies and some dividend stocks. That's the primary focus of our portfolio. We did increase also our international exposure slightly since then, but for the most part, our portfolio, our public equity portfolios are intact.

Speaker 8

Over the last few.

Speaker 6

Months, we're internationally, do you see opportunities mainly Europe?

Speaker 9

It's mostly Europe exposure. That we have a little bit of emerging markets, but it's mainly Europe that we added to that.

Speaker 8

You know, the defense spending that the German Germans or were committed to.

Speaker 9

That takes some time to play in, but we expect that going forward. So you're is the biggest international exposure.

Speaker 3

How much cash are you holding now versus maybe, I don't know, kind of an average for you.

Speaker 9

Guys, we're pretty fully invested for the clients that don't need cash, Okay, okay, So for anyone that doesn't need cash or doesn't expect.

Speaker 8

To need cash, we're pretty fully invested.

Speaker 9

Having said that, we do have some fixed income set asides because life happens, and of course unexpected cash needs come up.

Speaker 8

But for those that have.

Speaker 9

A monthly or annual distribution, I have twelve to eighteen months of cash aside. For everybody else, I want to be fully invested. And you know that doesn't mean we can't take advantage of the dips with our fixed income exposure, but I want to be fully invested.

Speaker 6

One of the defensive names that you had brought up the last time we were speaking was Lockheed Martin. When you're looking more specifically in the US, how are you viewing that stock now?

Speaker 9

So you know, going back to the European theme, the European defense spending that I think will play out, Lockheed Martin has a good percentage of their of their revenues coming from overseas. So still positive on that name. Even more so, I'll say, you know that's a defense company, of course, Defense.

Speaker 8

Tech shield AIE. So I'm looking more so in the private market.

Speaker 9

So we have our public exposure with Lockheed, but looking at some private markets as well, So and or Ill you may have heard of Defense Tex Shield AI. That's another exciting one. So again looking at defense not only in public but private market's more interesting.

Speaker 7

It's kind of where I.

Speaker 3

Want to go because in your notes you say you like venture growth. What is venture growth and how do you get your client's exposure to venture growth?

Speaker 9

Yes, great question. So venture growth private companies. They're not early stage venture. These are companies that are closed to profitability or at profitability or in line of sight of profitability two to three years out from an IPO or an M and a liquidity event. But venture growth companies have been you know, we saw the peak of venture bubble in twenty twenty one. Since then, valuations have been pretty muted, so posed to public markets where valuations are

on the higher end. And we have a concentration in the SNP right, forty percent of the s and P made up of ten names looking at private markets. So how do we get access It's it's a lot of work. We do have a fund set up. That first fund is closed. I mentioned Andreil shield Ai that fund is closed, but we have a fund. We bring investors together and we do a lot of networking, deal making, talking to a lot of different people to get access to some of these private companies.

Speaker 6

And speaking of those private companies, something you brought up in recent months was Recess when it comes to those alternative soft drink makers, talk to us more about that for people who might not know enough about that and why you see those types of opportunities there.

Speaker 8

Sure, So Recess is a beverage company.

Speaker 9

You may have heard magnesium helps us sleep that night, makes us calm down, relax, So maybe you want to try some Recess drinks. What's been interesting is the growth rate of beverages Better for You beverages and all non alcoholic beverages. That growth rate has been faster than alcoholic beverages. So Recess is one of those companies that that has

that magnesem and more calming effects. So if you don't want an alcoholic beverage because you don't want the effects the next day, this is a healthier.

Speaker 8

And you know a lot of the younger generation looking at you.

Speaker 9

Know, wellness and health care. How are we more healthy? So this plays right into that space.

Speaker 2

It's like when I'm thirsty, I get some water to drink. The kids hydrate. That's the difference.

Speaker 3

I'm like, why are you filling up a jug of water when I need to get back to the studio in thirty seconds to fill up my little cup of water.

Speaker 5

You're never draating.

Speaker 2

They are okay, all right, very good alternatives. So ASTI, how do you guys think about alternatives?

Speaker 3

Like as an allocation? Is it five percent, is it zero or is it something more?

Speaker 9

It's more so alternatives broad category. So there are different kinds of alternatives. But let's say in our typical portfolio of a seventy percent equity or what was thought of as a typical seventy thirty portfolio, we have a good ten to fifteen percent of alternative investments, not only private equity and venture growth, but structures as well.

Speaker 2

Interesting.

Speaker 3

I mean, there's a lot of ways to go out there, folks, and smart people like Sevesti Balafas they figure it out for you. Sevesti Balafas, CEO of Goal West Advisory, joining us here in our Bloomberg Arrecti Broker studio. We appreciate getting a few minutes of time here.

Speaker 2

Up.

Speaker 1

This is the Bloomberg Surveillance Podcast. Listen live each weekday starting at seven am Eastern on Apple Corplay and Android Auto with the Bloomberg Business app. You can also listen live on Amazon Alexa from our flagship New York station. Just say Alexa Play Bloomberg eleven thirty.

Speaker 2

Newspapers, Lisa Miteo, what do you have for us today? This one?

Speaker 10

Actually I want to ask you a question before I get this, because this one is have any of you how many of your kids have gone to grad school? Have they gone?

Speaker 8

None?

Speaker 2

They're all working? Okay, Okay, I have one more to go. So that's it.

Speaker 10

Yeah, so that ties into like this next story. That's why I want to ask you about it. So this is in the Wall Street Journal. It's talking about how the tough job market, like a good case for college grads is to do that so that it makes you stand out. But now they're saying, is the extra debt worth it? And that's what these kids are facing. So you know, they had the unemployment rate for graduates fell

in May. AI is taking out some roles, uncertainty around the impact of higher tariff so companies cutting back or slowing hiring, those are the things that they're facing. So now experts are telling the Wall Street Journal, here's what you need to do. You have to look at how much of a salary boost you can expect to get from that advanced degree, and then how much of a burden that total debt load is going to be, and that's what they should be asking themselves.

Speaker 2

I don't know.

Speaker 3

My dad told me I'll pay through undergrad and then anything after that, you guys pay.

Speaker 2

So my sister went to law school, she paid. I went to business school. I paid. I thought that was a pretty good deal. That's to my kids, Okay. But if number four comes up to me and says, hey, I want to do something, I might, I might.

Speaker 6

You might feeling this cost for a master's degree is skyrocketing.

Speaker 10

Well, that's what changes in the in the spending and the spending.

Speaker 2

So for a lot of people like I get. I was on the board of the Duke Business School for twelve years. For still a lot of kids today, if you want to make a career change, it's still a good way to go. There you go. Okay.

Speaker 10

This one was from the New York Times. So Curtis leewall right, you know, the Republican nominee from mayor.

Speaker 2

He's been sporting.

Speaker 10

This new look lately. He's been ditching that Guardian Angels red beret. You know, he's known for wearing it the red jacket for a suit, especially when he meets with like business leaders. Union officials things like that. He's also said he will keep it off permanently if he is elected in November. So he's telling The New York Times that some people are turned off by it because they

say it has this revolutionary look to it. So if it takes you know, him taking it off to have people listen to him, he wants to do.

Speaker 3

We interviewed him three weeks ago here at Bloomberg in this studio.

Speaker 2

I interviewed him. He had he had it on, Yeah, but had the suit on. I don't know. It's just to me, I've always known him with it. It's just like his trademark shown him.

Speaker 10

It's like up Tom he always has the bow type, but sometimes he has And it's funny because people are saying, Oh, didn't recognize.

Speaker 4

Him right without the bridge wearing. So that's a different sector.

Speaker 10

And so this one is up your alley Wall Street Journal. This is the AI struggles for Hollywood studios. So what they're doing, especially Disney as an example of they give it says bounce over how to use AI in the filmmaking process and then how to protect themselves.

Speaker 4

Against it at the same time.

Speaker 10

So Disney, I didn't even realize this when it began working on that live action version of Mowana, they actually considered whether to clone Dwayne Johnson for it. So apparently Johnson has a cousin who.

Speaker 8

Looks just like him.

Speaker 10

He's six foot three, he's two hundred and fifty pounds, Okay, so yeah, so he would fill in as this body double for a few shots. Disney would work with like this AI company to make these like deep fakes of his face that would be layered on top of his cousin's body.

Speaker 4

So, but the problem that.

Speaker 10

Disney attorneys were like, I don't know about this because they can't claim ownership over every element of that that the firm if it's AI generated in part. So this is like that struggle they're dealing with. We want to do this technology, but you know, do we still own it or what are the repercussions from using it? And what are the fans going to say? You know, like that's not the real rock. I mean, come on, you would know.

Speaker 2

No, I don't know.

Speaker 3

I mean this whole AI and the content creation thing, I don't know how that's all gonna.

Speaker 4

Work movie studios.

Speaker 2

It's going to be a change.

Speaker 10

But it's this back and forth struggle for that.

Speaker 2

Very good lisha mateo with the newspapers.

Speaker 1

This is the Bloomberg Surveillance Podcast, available on Apple, Spotify, and anywhere else you get your podcasts. Listen live each weekday, seven to ten am Easter and on Bloomberg dot Com, the iHeartRadio app, tune In, and the Bloomberg Business app. You can also watch us live every weekday on YouTube and always on the Bloomberg terminal

Transcript source: Provided by creator in RSS feed: download file
For the best experience, listen in Metacast app for iOS or Android