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Market Sentiment and Rate Cut Outlook

Sep 22, 202537 min
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Episode description

Watch Tom and Paul LIVE every day on YouTube: http://bit.ly/3vTiACF.
Bloomberg Surveillance hosted by Tom Keene & Paul SweeneySeptember 22nd, 2025
Featuring:
1) Wei Lei, Global Chief Investment Strategist at BlackRock, joins for an extended discussion on staying risk on and sticking with the AI theme. US stocks are set to pull back from all-time highs, with traders dialing back risk at the start of a relatively quiet week on the events calendar.
2) Jens Nordvig, founder at Exante Data, joins for an extended discussion on dollar hedging, gold, Fed independence, and Powell's last word. Gold hit a fresh record, powering past $3,700 an ounce as ETF inflows hit a three-year high, with market bets for almost two more cuts this year fueling a rally.
3) Michelle Meyer, Chief Economist and Head: Economics Institute at Mastercard, brings us into the market open and talks about the health of the economy, US consumer, and Mastercard's holiday guide. Investors are increasingly bullish on the six-month outlook for US stock markets as the Fed has restarted its cuts, but some strategists think this is a case of collective overconfidence.
4) Gautum Mukunda, Bloomberg Opinion contributor and lecturer at Yale School of Management, talks about tariffs, H-1B visas, and the latest on FCC-Kimmel. President Trump signed a proclamation to overhaul the H-1B visa program, requiring a $100,000 fee for applications to curb overuse.

See omnystudio.com/listener for privacy information.

Transcript

Speaker 1

Bloomberg Audio Studios, podcasts, radio news. This is the Bloomberg Surveillance Podcast. Catch us live weekdays at seven am Eastern on Apple car Play or Android Auto with the Bloomberg Business App. Listen on demand wherever you get your podcasts, or watch us live on YouTube for this from.

Speaker 2

Blackrock Wailey in studio. Thrilled to have you here, with immense respect for your profound accomplishments as a kid. And you were in China and then you went to Singapore, right it's somewhere. Did you go through the H one B visa process years ago?

Speaker 3

I didn't because I'm working. I'm based in London right now, I have a l one A. I think I need to remember that as against custom every time.

Speaker 2

What are your thoughts on this? You know it's the bar charts are India with a huge impact and then China is an impact away from the politics of it. What are your thoughts on it?

Speaker 3

I think that represents near tom uncertainty, especially facing I guess smaller companies. I think this is another example why we have to focus on fundamentals and pricing power of large companies as we think about being selective the zechist.

Speaker 2

This weekend, You're wonderful on LinkedIn pushing back against it is worry, worry AI, worry more worry, worry, worry AI. That's normal in a bull market.

Speaker 4

Isn't it. I think so.

Speaker 3

I think so, and I think it's worth remembering that bull markets do not die from valuation. And even if there is more focus around valuations right now, our study shows that it's not really as stretched as you would have expected looking at price appreciation. You look at magnificent seven right now, at thirty two times, PE is actually lower than the level at the beginning of the year because of the very strong earnings delivery and earnings upgrade, so we think that there is more to go.

Speaker 5

Our study shows that for US Tech.

Speaker 3

More broadly, if they deliver earning in the region from fifteen percent to twenty percent, their current multiple is maybe even higher than that can be very well supported. And now you may ask, you know, fifteen twenty that sounds like a lot, but looking back thirty years, a quarter of those period actually have seen US Tech growing earnings that strongly, right, so you know it's doable.

Speaker 4

That's doable.

Speaker 6

I think that the AI believers are firm believers in AI how about the rest of the world, the four hundred and ninety three other stocks in the S and P five hundred, how do you guys approach those names?

Speaker 3

You know, right now we're in this let's quite lucky juncture where we have the FED restarting raycut cycle and the labor market is supporting that rate cut direction of travel without it then becoming a big political debate in terms of fat independence, but also then what it means for long end of the curve and term premiere. So right now, the FAT is starting restarting fat rate cuts and growth is holding up. Okay, we're looking at one point five percent for your economy this year. It's very

far from recession. Earnings a strong so it's a good mix that can continue to support risk assets. Now the question is just for how long this lucky combination will last. So we're very much paying attention to you know, if labor market deterioration is a precursor of something worse to come on a growth front, it's not our expectation, but you know, lots of uncertainty.

Speaker 6

You say you're staying risk on, how does that apply to the fixed income market? Are you are you staying with it in the treasury market where you can get more, you can get four percent for change on a tenure, or do it take some credit risk our credit.

Speaker 3

We have had the preference for credit over long duration for a while, and you look at how ig spread is at close to multi decades low will actually add multi decay load. That has been a good call. But at this juncture, at this particular juncture, we do think that there is room to extend out duration exposure a little bit because we see this lucky mix of labor market supporting fact cuts and just generally markets are focusing

on that. So we want to lock in some of the attractive long duration radios in the US.

Speaker 2

In the technology juggernaut that you've let on, where is use of cash? Obviously they're doing a capex. Does Blackrock see evidence of a return and invest in capital from this capex balloon or does that wait?

Speaker 3

We have seen significant growth in our cash business because there is a huge amount of cash on the sizeline from an investment portfolio perspective. But to your point about return on investment for copex deployment, that's actually one thing that we're paying close attention to to understand if momentum of the AI trade could potentially shift, you know, as we think about sectors outside of technology also kind of getting very focused around AI adoption as we go from

capital lights to capital intensive kind of deployment. It has significant impact on return on equity. So we're paying attention to return on all this copex spend, but it would take time, and right now, what exes look like the axis axis is twenty seven nine. You mean intensive return on investment?

Speaker 2

When are we going to find out why Facebook is spending all that jillions? And it's going to be an ability to do an excess spreadsheet at black Rock to figure out what the return is.

Speaker 3

I would say that actually it's remarkably hard to get present a number you've written an investment for these capex because it's quite well hidden and they're not obligated to report them in a very precise form. But I would make the general observation that markets are letting them off the hook right now because it's really an existential build out race. You're either spending and overspending to stay in the game and stay on the table, or you will

be viewed as well. You won't be part of the future mix, right so I think markets are giving the tech companies some leeway to spend and overspend. We pay attention to free cash flow as a percentage of free cash flow. It's gone up quite a bit in terms of the kapex SU spent, but not to a level that they can't afford, not to mention, they can always tap into funding market public and private to raise additional

cash to spend. Right So, you know, like right now, it's still early in this journey and we see all systems go when it comes to AI build out.

Speaker 6

How do you, guys as chief investment strategies, what screens well for you these days? Are you screening on industries, factors? How are you kind of looking at markets and opportunities these days broadly?

Speaker 3

Well, we have liked we have like growthy type of names because we want to focus on companies that can really give exposure to exponential growth opportunities related to AI. But we also just think broader market given the lucky combination of fact cuts growth holding up. Okay, earnings are

reasonably well delivered so far as opposed to broader market. Yeah, we focus on the TAG and the EI complex, but generally we have an overweight to the broader US acquity market that includes the smaller caps compared to the mega tech companies in the international market. We're more selective, right, Like, so you're in Europe, we like defense, we like we like financials, we like industrials as a sector pick rather than across the across the board. Do you look to

the emergent market? You know, like being selective would have paid off well so far this year as well. You know, the hands and healthcare indexes up more than one hundred percent.

Speaker 2

Are you flying into Heathrow today.

Speaker 3

On Thursday or maybe even over the weekend?

Speaker 2

Traffic congestion or something? So some software went down.

Speaker 4

I came you over the weekend.

Speaker 3

It was actually quite smooth.

Speaker 2

We'll see mischic think you just go, Larry, can I get the golf stream.

Speaker 5

When you ask?

Speaker 3

On my behalf greatly?

Speaker 2

Thank you so much. It is with Blackrock. Can't say enough about her contribution to the zeitgeist on LinkedIn. She had a beautiful Bard shirt piecing together showing this huge technology investment. Uh that's out there and you know it's interesting to see, Uh, to say the least. Stay with us. More from Bloomberg Surveillance coming up after.

Speaker 1

This you're listening to the Bloomberg Surveillance Podcast. Catch us live weekday afternoons from seven to ten am Eastern Listen on Applecarplay and Android Otto with the Bloomberg Business app, or watch us live on YouTube.

Speaker 2

A good time now with Yen's Nordvig of ACCENTI data all of his experience, including with Namur and goldn Sachs over the years, and it can be on foreign exchange. But you know, folks, of the one hundred and forty two books that came out out of the crisis, they are like five or six that had traction. Shout out Andrew ros Serkin's book of seven I thought was really good, as he launches a new one here. The follow of the euro reinventing the Euros on YenS Nordvig was absolutely

I called it a primal scream. It was just it was so visceral. You have to be from Denmark to do that. If you're from America, you're too polite. It was so visceral. If you were to rewrite a book in the euro now, what would you title it?

Speaker 5

The challenges are still there. This challenge is still there.

Speaker 2

Zurosclerousa is still in place.

Speaker 5

We still have a weak growth done and we've had we've had a wake up call this year. Right, So we've had deflationary forces in Europe for the last ten years, as we spoke about, and then we had the COVID shock and all of that change, so that's gone. And then Germany have done something pretty dramatic right in terms of escaping the fiscal rules, so that was triggered by triggered by the US. Pauls have changed as well.

Speaker 6

So it seems like Europe is trying to spend its way out of its malaise, whether it's induced by the US change in policy. But I think there's questions about, all right, maybe Germany can get it done, maybe even Poland can get it done, because I point the right in the backyard of Russia it's in their best interest, But.

Speaker 4

How about everybody else?

Speaker 2

What's the rest of you are.

Speaker 6

Going to do in terms of trying to lift their they're spending levels.

Speaker 5

Yeah, Like the fundamental issue is that we used to in Europe for many decades to always have like the center of the politics was driving what was happening. So you had social democratic parties like a little bit to the left of center, and and then you had another centrist party a little bit to the right of the center, but they more or less did the same type of policies and they agreed on most things. And now you

don't have that anymore. You can see in France like the center has like been annihilated, right, mess, Yeah, and it's in many different countries.

Speaker 2

Is it just another mess or is there something original this time about more protesting?

Speaker 5

I think we'll we're waiting for an election result where there's actually going to be one of these far right, far left parties coming to power. Like at the moment, the center is getting small and smaller, but still staying in power and almost all countries, right, So the real test this will be when these non centrist forties actually get into power and they have to decide what they

what they do. And I think in relation to your question right about military spending, right, so it's clearly going up across the whole of the EU, Germany leading, and the fear of Russia is driving that, but it's not every country like Spain is not doing much like so so if you average it out, it's certainly not as dramatic as if you just look at Germany alone the US dollar.

Speaker 6

We had the FX annals from City City in your street just probably a half hour ago saying he's polished on the US dollar and he feels pretty empty alone out there, pretty lonely out there. What's your view of the dollar? He does not bounce back like everything else seems to bounce back.

Speaker 5

Yeah. So there's a huge debate going on at the moment about, Okay, what's happening with dollar hedging? Right? So on our data platform, we have a whole section that's dedicated to this specifically, right, because you can track it in many ways. There's been a lot of writing, including on Bloomberg in the last couple of weeks, about oh, if you look at the ETF flows, they show a lot of people are buying US acid but with a

hedge on top. I think that's it's very tricky to just use the ETFs because a lot of institutional flow don't happen in ETF space, right, So you can have pension funds that do big changes and you will not see anything in ETF. So I think the big picture is the following. We've been through, you know, three phases in terms of like dollar flows, where we came into this year, people still believed in US exceptionalism, still bought US stocks. Tech was the dominant theme. Then we had

all the policy uncertainty, reciprocal tariffs. We also had the German fiscal stimulus that people saw, okay, maybe there's an alternative, right, And we had a period where actually inflows into the US where smaller than inflows into other international competitors. And then in the last couple of months it's like kind of like a gray song. We're not back to US exceptionalism, but the US is recovering. There is a bit more flow coming in, so it's it's sort of a gray song.

So in my forecast for the dollar, I now put less weight on sort of very negative flows as a drive of the dollar. I put more weight on the FED. Again, so since my company specialized in the flow, maybe I'm being kind of like under budding. But we also do some FED analysis and and that's really been the key. You can see it in the correlations like the dollar and US interest rates super highly correlated. Again, there was no correlation at all in April May.

Speaker 2

Okay, I got I gotta get quickly because i'mnna do an audible. What's your what's your euro call? Here?

Speaker 5

At twelve months, I think we're going to be grinding higher. I think we're going to be stronger. I think the euro can be grinding high differ.

Speaker 2

Yeah, it's great, Okay, we're doing audio against Nordvik with us right now. And again his book was just absolutely fabulous. I learned this the hard way. Patrick O'Brien wrote a book called The Surgeon's Mate. In America, most people study the Baltic Sea for two days in ninth grade, and that's a combined knowledge. We don't have any understanding of the world. You grew up in Copenhagen by boat, sixteen hundred miles from Russia, Saint Petersburg, the Baltic States. We've

got testing of Russian planes in Estonia right now. It bare barely moves the needle here in America. I want you to explain to our American audience here that this ginormous brackish Baltic Sea with Denmark at the isthmus of it, where you come out the importance of that to the Western Alliance.

Speaker 5

Well, maybe i'll give you a one minute.

Speaker 4

History lesson, please, So all the.

Speaker 5

Traffic that comes by ship from Russia, Poland Baltic nations, so for what have to go through a tiny little gap between Sweden and Denmark. The reason why Copenhagen used to be a very wealthy city was that they collected taxi taxes from all those ships and they had a cannon in place, so if they didn't pay the tax, they would just shoot this ship down. And that's literally the reason why Copenhagen was a wealthy city very early on.

And obviously now we have tension in the Baltic Sea right because we have you knowlitary military aircraft doing things they're not supposed to do, so there's a lot of tension in that area. Like one card that Western nations could play was to actually control if they really wanted to control that waters, like logistically they used to do

with one cannon, so it could be done. I think part of the problem we have in the EU in relation to Russia is that the EU and the European are so afraid to escalate, right that those cards that they actually have that could be very powerful cards are just not not they're not being played, but they're not even being talked about. So that was a that was a more than one minute, but they gave you a little bit of because we got there.

Speaker 2

We got the Greenland distraction. Who's winning in Greenland today is the US or Denmark? I mean, you've got this whole Greenland distraction. Meanwhile, we have jets over NATO countries. I mean it is bizarre. Right now, Denmark is building up their military capabilities, right.

Speaker 5

That's right, that's just an investment into air defense system, like multimillion investments, right. And the interesting part about that was that it was announced as an investment that also had offensive capability, right, because the Prime Minister essentially said, like, there's no point in only having If you only have defenses, then how you're going to scare the aggressive on that.

Speaker 2

Line with the technology of Stockholm and you know no key years ago in that. Are you a believer that Europe can get their technology act together?

Speaker 5

I think you're seeing some signs of hope in countries like Germany, where there's actually a bunch of AI startups in robotics, AI robotics some people call the real world AI, right, not just in a digital domain. So I think the resource that Europe still has is that we have an education system that still delivers a lot of well educated engineers, computer sciences and so forth, so the human resource materials there, maybe it will matter a few of those people go

to the United States and get an age one bbs. Right, So there's all these different things happening right now where the sort of relative force of the different labor market is shifting.

Speaker 2

Did you have an H and B visa when you first came here?

Speaker 5

I did not know.

Speaker 2

I did.

Speaker 5

I was with Goldvin Sacks in London and I did a transfer with Goldman Sachs, So that's a different visus.

Speaker 2

Excuse me, the embassy of Goldman Sachs picks up a.

Speaker 4

Phone and it's done.

Speaker 2

Yes, talk to us.

Speaker 4

From when you're talking to your clients globally.

Speaker 6

What's the level of concern, if any, about the independence of the US fedter Reserve these days?

Speaker 5

Well, very very elevated concern. I have a lot of clients around the world right that invest in macro assets on a very broad basis, including emergen market assets, and those investors have a lot of experience and a lot of you know, lessons that they drawn from being involved in countries where central bank independence was a real problem and it caused massive, massive asm moves when when essentially the government took over the central bank or forced the

central bank to do certain things. We've seen that in Turkey, right, where the government has pushed through certain to easy monetary policy, right, and the currency has seen disastrous depreciation. So people have those lessons in the back of the head, right, And then it's a matter of Okay, what degree are we going down? There's a path. We've certainly already taken a step down this path.

Speaker 2

Right.

Speaker 5

You can see it in the dot plot. Right, you had you had a new governor, right that had a dot that was totally out of whack with all the other dots. Right. So it's it's very clear that we're going in that direction. But the question is whether it's really dry policy.

Speaker 2

Right.

Speaker 5

You also saw that we only had one descent. So it's all almost like the voting members of the f m C decided mostly to say, Okay, we're actually going to try to show a degree of consensus. There's one dot we cannot do anything about, but we're trying to do a degree of consensus about that audible.

Speaker 2

We got to get this in before we go to Michael Byron. One quick question, bestent of the Treasuries out with a wide set of headlines. US is ready to do what's needed to support Argentina. In a tweet, the Secretary said, they want to make Argentina great again. Okay, are you lying the Argentinian paeso because we're going to bail out Argentina.

Speaker 5

This is really interesting. We have a situation right where the United States kind of has a fight with Brazil, including terror, very elevated channel from Brazil that are mostly based on a political tension with what is haptable scenarow right, and now we have a situation where Argentina potentially might get very favorable toreat and something that really has potentially not happened since the Clinton bailout of Mexico, so very rare,

and it's happening because they like the leadership in Argentina playoffs, So it's it becomes a situation where it's the relationships at the highest level in government, including internationally, that might determine really who gets tariffed, who gets support. And this is a new regime we're in. This would have not happen like this a couple of months ago, what should we say, seven months ago? So new, new, new regime.

Speaker 2

Don't be strange. He has Nord. Thank you so much. Excity Data can't see enough of out his book of a decade ago plus in the euro We looked for another one out here. If missus Nordvigil to write volume four, whatever it is, stay with us. More from Bloomberg Surveillance coming up after this.

Speaker 1

This is the Bloomberg Surveillance Podcast. Listen live each weekday starting at seven am Eastern on Applecarplay and Android Auto with the Bloomberg Business app. You can also listen live on Amazon Alexa from our flagship New York station, Just say Alexa Play Bloomberg eleven thirty.

Speaker 2

Michelle Meyer with us the master Card. It's a first look at the holiday season. I'm going to round up the numbers because it's Monday. Online shopping up eight percent, store shopping up two percent. Is that because the technology and we like our Amazon boxes or is there a backstory to that at MasterCard?

Speaker 7

I mean, I think the technology and the digitalization of the retail space has been happening for years and that has been driving e commerce to see.

Speaker 4

Faster growth rate to the last years.

Speaker 7

But I do think there also is a specific story this year which is around tariffs, and they need to have even greater price discovery for consumers that are facing varied prices depending on that sensitivity to tariffs, they're going to want to be able to get the best deal that's out there and find that value. And you can do a lot more of that online.

Speaker 6

So how is the consumer here? We had some retail sales that look pretty darn solid.

Speaker 4

So how do you feel the consumer these days?

Speaker 7

I mean, I think the data is speaking really loudly right now, which is that consumers are still engaged in spending. You see it, as you just noted in the.

Speaker 5

Censuspure of retail sales reports the last.

Speaker 7

Few months showing some real healthy spend trends, and we see it in our own insights as well with our spending pool data that showed acceleration throughout the summer. So yes, consumers are making choices in how they're using their purchasing power, and I think a lot of that has to do

with where, again, they find the most value. They're trying to navigate the tariff environment to the best of their ability, and the sales numbers that we're looking at are of course nominal sales, and we are still to see a little bit higher goods inflation than certainly we saw this time last year.

Speaker 2

Will you break it down in your special MasterCard report with smiling people on the cover because they're happy to start shopping in September. Artificial Christmas trees, the tariff is twenty seven yea percent. You're like the budget lab at Yale, I mean, what is the calculation of tariff impact right now?

Speaker 7

Absolutely, so we looked at just the data that the Census Bear reports in terms of the teriff freight by really granular category, because that's what we like to do. We like to go really deep in terms of understanding consumer spending by different categories. And certainly you are seeing some like artificial trees stood out as one where tariffs

are significantly high than this time last year. So consumers have to make decisions if they do indeed see some of those tariff increases passed on to them, and that's a question of if. Because retailers are also trying to navigate this, then they'll have to decide if they want to allocate more of their dollars to get that Christmas

tree or do something different. So there's going to be a certain amount of substitution, where, when and where it's possible to do that based off of where tariffs are kicking it and showing up in the data.

Speaker 6

So your forecast, how do you think the holiday season will shape up?

Speaker 4

How do you think spending will be this holiday?

Speaker 7

So Tom gave the breakdown between e commerce and in store, but to give the overall numbers, we're looking for three point six percent retail sales ex autos, which is measured good from Yeah, it's November first, the December twenty fourth, knowing that, of course the holiday season starts even earlier. We think it's kicking off now, but it just.

Speaker 2

For scraz You should start Friday after Thanksgiving.

Speaker 5

Yes, things have changed, that's still a big day.

Speaker 7

Of course, Black Friday period is super important and we'll be monitoring it really closely to understand the trends for the season.

Speaker 4

All right, Michelle, thank you so much. Appreciate that.

Speaker 6

Michelle mayor joining us here in our studio. Michelle Mayer's a chief economist North America for Massacart Economics Institute.

Speaker 4

Well, if they don't get up, if they don't have a.

Speaker 6

Finger on the pulse of spending on who doesn't I mean I'll be throwing down the carton.

Speaker 2

Do you get to go to Formula one? Like McLaren, do you get to go like? Are you going to Austin?

Speaker 4

I went to Vegas?

Speaker 2

You're going to Austin?

Speaker 4

You are kidding here?

Speaker 2

No McLaren, Lando and Oscar? Yes, yes, yes? Who do you root for?

Speaker 5

All of these?

Speaker 2

Scott? Who do you root for? Sharaison is Gaga over Oscar? Come on, Oscar Orlando? We need to know.

Speaker 7

Maybe Lando a little bit more, but Oscar's great to I don't want to you know anybody wearing THO McLaren colors on the.

Speaker 2

Bottle it Michelle Meyer, Orlando crush. That's what I learned today is the chief ecotomist. I'll carry your bags, the Lewis Street luggage. You've got to Austin. I'll carry your bags. Michell Meyer, Thank you so much. Stay with us. More from Bloomberg Surveillance coming up after this.

Speaker 1

This is the Bloomberg Surveillance podcast. Listen live each weekday starting at seven am Eastern on Apple, Coarplay, and Android Auto with the Bloomberg Business app. You can also watch us live every weekday on YouTube and always on the Bloomberg terminal.

Speaker 2

What a great set of conversations today in this H one V up forth. Thank you Josh Wingrove and our team in Washington who broke that story. Huge impact by Bloomberg News in our White House correspondence over the weekend. We continue strong with god A mcinda joining us from

Bloomberg Opinion and also Yale School of Management. Okay, you grew up in America, but you know the entire H one B Malsterman in all that one hundred and fifty thousand engineering graduates in America ten times, at eight times, at whatever in India. I get the people that want Americans to have jobs. But in your study, is there anyway American engineering talent can make what percent of the present H one B pool?

Speaker 4

So it's not even close.

Speaker 8

So H one b's are a huge supplement, and because they're so hard to get, they're particularly sort of value added.

Speaker 2

Right.

Speaker 8

Well, what we actually see from H one b's is they create jobs for American engineers because of right, because that makes it easier to create companies, It makes it easier to dumb it to lead in high skilled industries, and so it's not a zero sum game. They don't push out American engineers.

Speaker 2

Okay, but help our audience. If there's one hundred jobs created, how many can be people from Georgia Tech, Texas A and m cal Tech. Is it like twenty thirty? Is it eighty nine out of one hundred?

Speaker 4

So in the US, So your thing as the proportion of the h one d's.

Speaker 2

If we eliminate H one B, how many of those one hundred h one B jobs are going to be taken by American engineers?

Speaker 8

Oh so till we run out of engineers? Yes, so it's one as we've run out of engineers. So the problem isn't just that, it's that, you know, maybe twenty or thirty of those were taken. It's that twenty or thirty, But then we would lose fifty or sixty other American engineering jobs from companies that aren't created, that don't grow

because they don't have access to this engineering count. The total number of engineering of the total employment for American engineers in the United States will go down, not up, because of this.

Speaker 6

Presumably the tech industry is one of the ones, if not the most impacted here. Yet I don't hear much from technology leaders. In fact, I see them accompanying the President at various events, including over in London last week for.

Speaker 4

His state visit.

Speaker 6

Are you surprised that we haven't seen pushback from maybe some corporate leadership or just some other business entities.

Speaker 4

No, for two reasons.

Speaker 8

The first is fear, right, Like, if you talk to corporate leaders and you'll start starting to see people that was the l CEO Sunit recently, where this was just the consensus.

Speaker 4

In the room.

Speaker 8

Everybody is unhappy and no one wants to see say anything about it because they think the president will come after them if they do.

Speaker 3

So.

Speaker 8

Fear is a real company here. But the second is the way this is structured is interesting in the way it's done right. So there's this one hundred thousand dollars fee which can be waived at the president's discretion for any reason.

Speaker 4

So in a real sense.

Speaker 8

What this does is just create a huge, you know, a huge incentive to cultivate the president. And it also really helps sort of big incumbent companies over small scrappy ones.

Speaker 4

Both of those.

Speaker 8

If you're a major CEO leader, you might decide your interests are go along tariffs.

Speaker 6

I'm not sure where we are. I think the courts are taking a look at these things. What's your view of kind of where we are here, because I think the Supreme Court's going to have some type of say here.

Speaker 4

It's absolutely going to have some type of say.

Speaker 8

And the Supreme Court has sort of to an unprecedented extent and given deference to the Trump administration a way that we just haven't seen this before in the modern era, in ways that are pretty surprising that even other judges are starving to call out as this is inappropriate. So we don't know what they will do, and anyone's guess has good on that. I think the law, most legal analysts think that the law says that these terrors are

going to be overturned, but we don't know. But even if they are, the Trump administration has ways to reimpose them. So unfortunately, the Court is actually increasing the level of uncertainty that's attached to the terrorist's not decreasing.

Speaker 2

Gotta macunda with this Yale University a great set of books out in presidential politics. Here on our talent, I take immense umbrage about a huge body of Americans don't understand the engineering heritage of many of our schools. How many people actually know there's Yale engineering with all of that nineteenth century heritage. So if I'm taking physics for twenty thermodynamics and statistical mechanics, this is not an easy a,

is it? No? It's not? Okay? Fine, So if I'm doing entropy at Yale, is the Indian education superior and more rigorous than across America engineering?

Speaker 8

So the median Indian education isn't. But there are a lot of Indians. There are one point four billion of them. If you're talking about the people who are going to the its and places like that. My mother was both her undergrad and her PhD.

Speaker 4

It was from it compore.

Speaker 2

Did she come here in an H one B?

Speaker 4

She came here. She did not come here on an H one B. She came here in the early seventies Maria.

Speaker 2

But she got off an airplane somewhere. Did she take an American job when she came here?

Speaker 8

So she took a job in the United States, But she did not take an American job because her skill set was such that she was essentially the only person in the world who was able to do the work that she did for NASA, And so every single program, every single American spacecraft that involved nuclear power and space went through her at some point over the course of her forty year career.

Speaker 2

It literally, did she think we could use nuclear propulsion to go to Mars? This was a raging dinner table. Copper like buns and rolls were thrown over. This is it her fault that we were supposed to develop nuclear miss or rocketry rather to go to March.

Speaker 4

It's not. It's actually a treaty problem.

Speaker 8

But I will say when The Martian came out, exactly one of the probes in the Martian is actually the last mission she helped design. And so when she saw it, I got a four page technical analysis of the movie from her.

Speaker 2

Read it. I loved it.

Speaker 4

I thought it was great, Bud, thanks for setting this to it.

Speaker 8

But this is actually a key thing, right, This is taking a skill set from India. Right, So, India, at the time, one of the world's poorest countries, at ruinous expense, educated America's finest scientist and engineers and let's sent them here. This is a phenomenal deal for the United States. The idea of every country in the world would kill to get the best graduates of the Iets there that right, like that is an asset of uncalculable value, and in

staid we seem to be throwing it away. It is a decision that makes no sense on any level of the national interest.

Speaker 6

So what do you think, How do you think this is going to play out? I mean, I'm sure it's a topic of conversation at Yale, at Harvard and all the places you hang your head.

Speaker 4

How do you think this is going to play So.

Speaker 8

One is there's going to be a lot of pushback. For example, a lot of these people are like surgical residents. We already have a.

Speaker 4

Doctor's shortage in the United States.

Speaker 8

People don't know this, but the United States has fewer doctors per capita than any other industrial We got.

Speaker 2

To cut to thee This is brilliant.

Speaker 3

You know.

Speaker 2

I have to have you back again. Got them just on this. If the president does this, how does it change in American's life at Georgia Tech Engineering or el Engineering.

Speaker 8

So one is these schools will these schools become less attractive to foreign students because a lot of them come in in the expectation they will be able to stay in the United States with an H one BBS, which they find an incredibly attractive prospect. So first American schools, which have historically gotten the best talent in the world,

are going to find it harder to do that. And that's a big problem because those schools are the ones that produce the new technologies that are the foundation for new for new industries and new companies. So you want them to keep spilling out that. You want them to

have the best global talent. So second, companies are going to be more likely, not less likely, they're going to be more likely to outsource American technology jobs outside of the United States, because if they can't get the labor here, they can get it in India. So you're going to see more outsourcing and more offshoring for the sorts of jobs that we actually desperately want.

Speaker 2

For Microsoft setting up more in the United Kingdom with that's the president's visit. Yeah, this is brilliant gun, Thank you so much. With the Yale University. Can't say enough about it. We'll do this, We'll do this again. That's a nerd fest.

Speaker 4

Did you watch some Marsha Yeah, awesome.

Speaker 2

My mother said my father was literally crying during the movie. Yep, they got so many things right.

Speaker 1

This is the Bloomberg Surveillance podcast available on Apple, Spotify, and anywhere else you get your podcasts. Listen live each weekday, seven to ten am Eastern on Bloomberg dot Com, the iHeartRadio app, tune In, and the Bloomberg Business app. You can also watch us live every weekday on YouTube and always on the Bloomberg term no

Speaker 6

Yeh

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