Market Concentration and Examining Kamala Harris' Policies - podcast episode cover

Market Concentration and Examining Kamala Harris' Policies

Sep 25, 202441 min
--:--
--:--
Download Metacast podcast app
Listen to this episode in Metacast mobile app
Don't just listen to podcasts. Learn from them with transcripts, summaries, and chapters for every episode. Skim, search, and bookmark insights. Learn more

Episode description

Watch Tom and Paul LIVE every day on YouTube: http://bit.ly/3vTiACF.
Bloomberg Surveillance hosted by Tom Keene and Paul SweeneySeptember 25th, 2024
Featuring:

  • Virginie Maissonueve, Global CIO of Equity at Allianz, on the inflation glide paths across various regions and sources of volatility for markets
  • Connecticut Governor Ned Lamont discusses the Harris-Walz campaign, Kamala Harris' economic plan, and his recent WSJ article responding to Peggy Noonan's critiques of Harris' policies
  • Michael Mauboussin, Head of Consilient Research for Counterpoint Global, discusses market concentration and his thematic research ideas amid the Fed's easing cycle
  • Lisa Mateo on newspapers


Get the Bloomberg Surveillance newsletter, delivered every weekday. Sign up now: https://www.bloomberg.com/account/newsletters/surveillance 

See omnystudio.com/listener for privacy information.

Transcript

Speaker 1

Bloomberg Audio Studios, Podcasts, radio news.

Speaker 2

This is the Bloomberg Surveillance Podcast. I'm Tom Keene along with Paul Sweeney. Join us each day for insight from the best in economics, finance, investment, and international relations. You can also watch the show live on YouTube. Visit the Bloomberg Podcast channel on YouTube to see the show weekday mornings from seven to ten am Eastern from our global headquarters in New York City. Subscribe to the podcast on Apple, Spotify, or anywhere else you listen and always I'm Bloomberg Radio,

the Bloomberg Terminal, and the Bloomberg Business app. Now to drive the China story forward in economics, finance, and investment. Joining us right now, Virginia Mass New Global Cio Equity at Alion's as well. Virginny. I'm sure you've done this, but if you're at at the restaurant Cafe Monsieur diorg at Montana thirty Montaigna in Paris, and you know you sat down with mister Arnaut's offspring and said, what about China?

How would you brief the Arnold family now and the vibrancy in the future of China consumption?

Speaker 3

Well, thank you that's a great I love the staging here. It's quite quite fun. Listen. I think China clearly has gone through a tough time and when you see particularly demanding luxury good and the substitution that we start seeing

within China, luxury is finding it quite tough. However, there is a lot of negative sentiment on China, and I think the packages that they've put yesterday are still underestimated by a lot of investors, particularly because of the impact it could have a domestic consumption confidence as it relates to the property market.

Speaker 2

Do you just assume fiscal stimulus to come. We're ago and canes today. When the facts change, Beijing changes.

Speaker 3

Yeah, I think fiscal stimulus is needed. The current package is quite big, as you know, in terms of support to property and capital market. But what I would like to see is an AMC for property, basically an asset management company, the same way we had remember in some of the previous crisis, to help with the banks and pls. I'm not saying this is going to be announced, but what I'm saying is it would make a lot of

sense as the next step. And you can see how China has timed the release of this package after the fat cut, so that the impact on the currency versus the dollar was not too strong, and so I think we'll have more coming.

Speaker 4

We say good morning to your no family and everyone else listening in the eighth in Paris. For let me ask you just about the market reaction to all of this and baked into these plans announced by the PBOC in China or was this stock stabilization fund our friend John Authur's are colleg John authors referring to that is kind of like a FED put in effect.

Speaker 5

You look at how this.

Speaker 4

Is rippling out through Asia, not really rippling out through throughout Europe and the US, as one might think, how do you see the market effects the knock on effects of what's happened in China over these last couple of days.

Speaker 3

Yeah, so I think it's not only China. I think it's you know, we're at an interesting point in the markets with key things in the macroeconomy, the political economy,

and the financial economy. So on one hand, you have had all those announcements, and of course positive sentiment on China has an impact on Asia, but you also have the impact of the FED rate cuts, which of course is going to have an impact on areas that are strongly anchored around property, and you can see that with Hong Kong for ext So I think it's the convergence of those two trends that is supporting markets.

Speaker 4

Love to pull back and look at the United States as well, and you've written about this tension that exists between the political cycle and the economic cycle here in the United States. Where do you see most of that tension lying is in terms of tax policy, tariff's policy, if we want to keep with the China theme that we're having this morning. I think a lot of people downplay the sort of role that an election might have

just exclusively. But when you look at policy going forward under either of these two administrations, what stands out to you the most, what's likely to have the biggest effect.

Speaker 3

Yeah, So I think on one hand, you have continuity. On the other hand, you have unknown with a lot of potential announcements that if you actually look at the announcement and the impact on finances of the country or the realistic the pragmatic view of how you implement those a little bit more questionable. I would say, so we would look at inflation through tariffs if we have one administration versus another That sustainability has been a big topic

of mind for over twelve months now. As you know, if you have a continuation of the corporate tax rate cut, you know that's about five six trillion dollars. But if you have more happening, you know, how do we financing at the time where we were quite leveraged, and of course the cost of financing that that is coming down, but the long end is not coming down as much.

Speaker 2

Right, Virginie, What is the cost of having too much cash in a portfolio right now into twenty twenty five if the facts change, So I've got to look differently at cash, triple leverage or that. Yeah.

Speaker 3

So, as you know, most of our clients in inequities have maximum cash generally five percent. So but you can absolutely be there. You're still getting some interesting returns on your cash. But I think the way to navigate that volatility is really more about balancing. So in the developed market, you know, having that balanced portfolios between the cyclical aspect of the stocks who might do well on those rate cuts and a more defensive, you know element of the portfolio.

Continuing however, to have your your tech long term long term stocks right. At the same time, what you're seeing is exposure, more opportunistic exposure, perhaps in emerging markets or China. In Asia, we still like Japan, and we like China as really an area of the market that's very emptiqu consensus.

Speaker 2

Virginie, thank you so much to you at Montania thirty there in the New York Cathe virginias a mention of Paris and of course always of Alliance as well. One of the great moments of late September in the early and I will go back as far as a gentleman from Iowa who supported FDR and then became a conservative Republican and moved to the center to get elected. His name was Ronald Reagan. And maybe that's a moment we are with these two candidates, is they frame out who

to move to the center. The governor from Connecticut is more than skilled at this discussion. We should point out that Governor Lamont's wife, Annie Lamont, serves as a board member of Bloomberg LP, the parent company of Bloomberg Radio. Ned Lamont, David Gurra knows a lot about moving to the center.

Speaker 4

Govern Lamont, great to have you with us, and let me start here just by asking you about the speech that we're going to hear today from the Vice President in Pittsburgh, a major economic address. I was reading extracurricular this morning, looked at The Times and Jim tankersly talked about how outside groups are agitating for her to take a more populist position on the economy, Tom mentioning this movement to the center. Are you going to hear from

the Vice president today? What do we need to hear from the vice president? What do you want to hear from the Vice president?

Speaker 6

Well, good boy, David and Tom.

Speaker 7

Tom, maybe i'll see you up at the Grunwich Economic Forum next month.

Speaker 6

What I want to hear.

Speaker 7

Is flesh out continuing the opportunity economy that she alluded to during the convention and going forward, that's a big focus on new business startups, the innovation economy that here in Connecticut we've started more new businesses in the last few years than ever before, and frankly a lot of.

Speaker 6

Them are women and minority owned businesses. You know, deal with also.

Speaker 7

AI and advanced manufacturing and all the other places. It's a great time to be in the startup economy. I think that'll be a focus.

Speaker 4

I hear the former president talking an awful lot about tariffs. He was in Savannah yesterday, talked about tariff's being a beautiful word. As he put it, there's a simplicity to him saying it over and over again. People might misapprehend what it means or what the consequences might be. Our understanding is the Vice President's going to talk about targeted tax incentives today, a difficult term I think to sell to the American public.

Speaker 5

How does she do it?

Speaker 4

How does she convince Americans that this kind of industrial policy is going to be a benefit to them.

Speaker 6

Look, I think terroriff is another word for tax.

Speaker 7

It's a middle class consumer tax, and you're going to be paying that in terms of higher inflation and higher costs. I think Vice President Harris has a different strategy obviously, with incentives.

Speaker 6

She wants to help those small companies.

Speaker 7

Grow and expand more of an ownership of company, opportunity to own your own company, and also, as you know in housing, own your own home as well.

Speaker 6

It's good to have a stake in your community.

Speaker 4

I want to ask you about how much time there is between now and the election. You're acutely aware of it, and there's a school of thought that it's too late in the game to change minds, that voters have made up their minds. Yes, we talk about these undecided voters a few as they are in these handful of states

and districts. Are you one who believes that at this point, giving a speech like that is unveiling a plan that I gather is going to be about eighty pages long, is gonna is going to do work to do that people can still be convinced here forty plus days till the election.

Speaker 6

I get the idea that I have a three hundred million people.

Speaker 7

Maybe there's a million that are still persuadable in five or six states.

Speaker 6

But I think Kamala Harris, you're going to see what she has.

Speaker 7

In mind when it comes to manufacturing and jobs and opportunity.

Speaker 6

I think she's very entrepreneurial in that sense.

Speaker 2

With us now, the governor of Connecticut, Ned Lamont, we welcome all of you nationwide Bloomberg Surveillance.

Speaker 5

David, I've got to ask you.

Speaker 4

You mentioned taxes just a moment ago in the context of Tariff's being like them in your estimation, taxation front and center in your backyard, as we had the former president traveling to Connecticut to talk about the reversal of something that he did.

Speaker 2

We got to do, we gotta governor, we gotta make this granular. Okay, we got to get granular. There's a houth on North Street in Greenwich, Connecticut that a Spielberg parachuteed in. He'd say, we we can use this. Built in seventeen ninety six, actually pretty reasonable by Connecticut standards, under three million dollars, David, the property tax was rounded out to twenty five thousand, two hundred and seven dollars.

Speaker 4

Continue, the former president talks about restoring the salt deduction, which was capped when he was the president and his tax bill was pushed through. Help our listeners on Global Wall Street understand the significance of that decision that he and other Republicans made back then and the import of doing away with that cap.

Speaker 7

A first book on that house you referred to a Grutwich is probably two million dollars five years ago.

Speaker 6

With his three million dollars a day, A lot of people moving into this state.

Speaker 7

But you're absolutely right, David, that salt reducing the deduction on that was very costly to states where we invest a lot in K through twelve education that's reflected.

Speaker 6

In property taxes.

Speaker 7

So raising that deduction level, which I think is something both Kamala Harris and for President Trump have talked about, would be very.

Speaker 6

Meaningful up here.

Speaker 4

Governor Tom often talks to me about the importance of knowing history, thinking about history. As Donald Trump makes his way through Long Island into your neck of the woods, do people remember who's responsible for putting that cap in place?

Speaker 6

I think we'll be reminded them.

Speaker 4

As we migrate back to the speech that we're going to get today. Focusing again on this industrial policy, I wonder what the endgame is here for both of these candidates. I think there is a desire to bring more manufacturing to the United States from overseas. We remember, thinking again about history about how much was made in this country before. We're not going to get back to that, are we.

I mean, what's the dream, what's the vision that your candidate has that politicians have for a sort of renaissance or resurgence of manufacturing in the United States.

Speaker 5

What does it look like.

Speaker 7

I can tell you in the last six years, we've brought more manufacturing back to the state of Connecticut. We have a lower unemployment rate than the national average. That was not true for much generation. I think some of that is related to the fact that advanced manufacturing, it's very calful, intensive, requires high level computer skills. If you go to some of these sublaces where making jet engine and submarines, and I think that old plays or.

Speaker 2

Strengths Nedlamont tell me about the fancy people, and you've had the class to stay in Connecticut. Frankly, you could do whatever you want. You've done the political game, which is fine. Those fancy people moving to Florida, what's the mistake they're making. I mean, there's an exodus from Connecticut, a fancy people to Florida. Discuss that impact.

Speaker 7

The good news, Tom is we have more young people moving into the state of Connecticut. Never before more young people staying in the state of Connecticut.

Speaker 6

But you're absolutely right.

Speaker 7

You know, going back, even before we had an income tax, a lot of older folks and wealthy folks did go down to Florida. Hope Sound was traded back in the fifties by that crowd. Look, I think far is a great place. The visitor wouldn't want to live there.

Speaker 2

I want to talk to you about a tough topic. We talked to an elite audience here a Bloomberg, But Governor Lamont, it's just simple people in the you know, you look at a more challenging part of Connecticut, like Bridgeport. They're not worried about Jupiter Island or Hope Sound. They're worried about drugs right now. What do you need from Washington to help this nation with our drug crisis? A fentanyl?

Speaker 7

The good news is the venyl crisis has received a little bit using some federal resources, a lot by the state doing a lot more in terms of the intervention early on, taking care of narcon in the schools, doing everything we can there. But I'm a big believer in opportunity. When young people see there's opportunity there, they have a better alternative. That's why free workforce training, we guarantee you a job if you pass with those skills.

Speaker 6

I think that's a big part of the answer too, Tom Govinor.

Speaker 4

We've been talking an awful lot about polls these last few days, and there have been plenty of them. You've seen them, I'm sure, And what seems to be bubbling up to the top is this interest in passion for getting the economy to be in better shape. That's what voters care about. As you make your rounds through Connecticut, what are voters telling you the problems are when it comes to the economy and what needs to change. How much are they looking to Washington to affect that change?

Speaker 7

As I go around the state of Connecticut, I think people feel like we're in a pretty good place from an economic point of view, but affordability is an enormous issue. Everything from growthry and right now electric rates going up. You know, electric is a big deal for us because demand is going up through the roof, look at data centers, and yet supply is still tough for at the end of the supply chain here.

Speaker 6

So that's what I hear afordability.

Speaker 2

Governor, I got time for one more question. It's the only one that matters. What can the governor of Connecticut do about Amtrak and the wires in the heat of August popping up from New York to Boston, Boston, New York. I mean, I mean, we're not going to blame this on the state of Connecticut. Ned Lamont, what are they They're they're doing better after the tunnels in New York, they're doing better to Washington. What can we do about Amtrak and Connecticut?

Speaker 7

I think thanks to the Infrastructure Bill, Tom, you're going to see a big difference there.

Speaker 6

Amtrak.

Speaker 7

Joe kind of cared a lot about Amtrak, and that means everything can straighten me out. Be a rail where we can so you can get higher speed. You know, one of these hundred year old bridges, Tom costs us about two minutes because you've got to slow down and then speed up on the backside of it. So I think you'll see some real progress there, but it's probably going to take a decade.

Speaker 2

I got I got a time, like a minute here. This is really important, Edlamont. President Biden speaking to the UN yesterday. We were thrilled he stopped by Bloomberg philanthropies as well. What will be the Joe Biden legacy? You talk about Amtrak? Joe, I think he's comfortable that, but after the Halay, just six months as president has had what will be his Democratic Party legacy builder.

Speaker 7

I think everybody since I've been around, I've been around for a while says we're going to.

Speaker 6

Start rebuilding America. I think he did that.

Speaker 7

Look where we were four years ago with sage Brush blowing down empty streets, and now what you're going to see in terms of roads and bridges and good paying jobs and speeding up Amtrak for you.

Speaker 6

I think that'll be a big piece of his legacy.

Speaker 2

Nettla Mount, thank you so much. The governor of Connecticut with us this morning, David Boro, thank you so much for that conversation, just really outstanding. Upon joining us. Now for Global Wall Street, we welcome all of you around the world, across the nation. Here Michael Mobison. I'm going to frame this out, David. He's got a very important Morgan Stanley piece out for Counterpoint Global Insights on stock market concentration. But I think we need to know how

we got here. David Gera with Michael Mobison. Somewhere in the late nineties a credit sueee. They put out this literature that was seven eight nine pages and you'd swear because you had to read every word, and you go, who is this mobile I can't even pronounce his name. Who is this Mobison guy? And what began really culminating in the Internet boom, the first boom of two thousand and one two was the required theoretical read on Wall Street. He extended this from Credit Squeeze to like Mason now

At and Morgan Stanley. We're thrilled that Michael Mobison could join us for extended conversation today. Do your old essays still hold true today? Those seminal capital allocation essays that you wrote, I'm going to say this twenty five years ago. The math is still the same, right.

Speaker 5

I think the math is the same. And well, I guess I'll lead it.

Speaker 8

Leave it to the readers to actually judge ultimately whether that's the case. But I'll say, Tom, just backing up a little bit. You know, I was very fortunate to be able to with the folks in the Santa Fean institude learning about a lot of these concepts like power laws and increasing returns. Now those things are you network effects? These are all it's kind of common language today.

Speaker 2

Right.

Speaker 8

That was very novel roughly thirty years ago, So I was able to be maybe a slightly bit ahead of trying to implement those.

Speaker 5

Ideas and think about it.

Speaker 8

And by the way, the Internet boom was just like the classic It was a canonical boom and bust, right, and you can see it unfold before your eyes, so you could actually write about it and say, like, we know that ninety percent of these companies are going to go away, but we're experimenting, right.

Speaker 2

You nailed eight nine ten essays in I can't remember. And this is some electrical engineering folks. You don't go semi log, you go loglog and you end up with a hyperbole. Which is that curvey thing you just studied in David at school. You nailed the few would win I believe Amazon was your model there, but on a loglog chart, a few winners would be there. You absolutely nailed that. Is that our future?

Speaker 8

Well, I mean, the thing is the distribution of company sizes is a power follows a power law and I don't I don't know that we know exactly why that's the case.

Speaker 5

So it was.

Speaker 8

True then, it was true back in the nineteen fifties, and I suspect there's no reason to believe it's not going to be true going forward.

Speaker 5

So the answer is yes. The challenge is.

Speaker 8

Figuring out precisely what you said, Tom, which is which companies canna lie where on that power law distribution right, and power law. By the way, power law is it's like it is, it ends up being a straight line when you do it on a log lag. But it's not intuitive when you when you actually run through the numbers, because obviously every log is you're doubling, where you're increasing the same percentage for each tick mark.

Speaker 2

What Momison is saying is not intuitive is I got to see today. That's what that means. I got to get One more question is because girls worried about the present. If that's the case, and if I go to Krugman, who's been very good about monopsimistic tendencies, is there an American capitalistic tendency where the few just get bigger and bigger the exploitation theory.

Speaker 5

Yeah, I don't.

Speaker 8

This is this is another really fascinating thing. If you look at the last twenty years in particular, what our number show, and we do a lot of work on returns on to vesa capal for businesses, what our number show is that the larger companies have distanced themselves.

Speaker 5

From the smaller companies.

Speaker 8

So people talk a lot about large cap versus small cap, but the underlying economics for these big guys is actually quite good. And you know this can well, I'm sure we'll talk about stock market concentration, but this ties into that argument, which is the fundamentals seem to be the case.

Speaker 5

So how does that go on forever? I have no idea.

Speaker 8

I'm more observing than i'm predicting, but the last twenty years have been quite unusual in that and that specific context.

Speaker 4

Well, let's go to the present tense, but I'll stick with with with learning from history as well. And I wonder, as we talk about you're writing on the internet in the past, how much that is an analog to what we're seeing today. How much are you thinking about what happened then as you look at what's happening now with kind of the exuber instant excitement about right, artificial intelligence?

Speaker 8

Right, I look, I think that there's a model, and you go back to the railroads and canals, I mean everyone radio, We see the same pattern every single time. By the way, this is well documented by an econress named Stephen Klepper, formerly a Carnegie Mellon University And basically the patterns is this, you have a huge number of companies.

Speaker 5

Trying out a lot of stuff.

Speaker 8

Most of those companies are gonna fail, but you can think about each of them's options. Eventually, the market in quotation marks selects the technology that's going to win and then everything else they consolidate or go out of business, whatever it is.

Speaker 2

So you have this.

Speaker 8

Experimentation phase and then you figure it out, and then you have this sort of waning of all the all the losers. Yeah, we go through every time you see a new technology come along. And by the ways, funny I was I was with a client this is like two thousand and one, and the guy.

Speaker 5

Says, oh, he just lived through the dot com boom and bust. You know, do you think we've wisened up and that will never do this again? I was like, zero.

Speaker 8

Probability of that. No, not maybe not zero, but basically close to zero. I mean, this is how it works. And so and by the way, as a fascinating side note, scientists said, this is how our brains actually, how we develop our brains, naptic connections in our brain to do the same thing from the time you're born. In timey three, you have the explosion of some naptic connections. Try and also, if you've ever been around a three year old, we

all have been. They're very inefficient little things, but they take in everything right, but then you prune away the stuff that doesn't matter.

Speaker 5

And you keep the stuff that's good, and you go.

Speaker 2

From David get stuck market concentration.

Speaker 4

I remember talking with Michael Hartnett of Bank of America a few years back, he who coined the term Magnificent seven, and we talked an awful lot about the need for the market to broaden out the concerns that we've heard about concentration. We can stay in the present tense, but pull back as much as you'd like here, how much have we've seen that happen? How vital is it that we have that kind of moving back from just a handful of names.

Speaker 5

I just don't know how to answer this question.

Speaker 8

I was like, so I was really reticent to waiting to this topic at all, But I was like, there are a couple of things that seemed.

Speaker 5

To be missing here.

Speaker 8

Number one is just going back further in history, right, So we went back to nineteen fifty The concentration we see today is clearly precedent. It was the nineteen sixties, and why we go back nineteen thirties? That was the basically, that was the standard. But number two is he asked the basic question, if you had a clean sheet of paper and you knew nothing about this, how would you figure out what concentration should be. The reason it's so disconcerned is because we've gone up a lot in the

last decade, But what should it be? And so we said, oh, one way to think about that's the underlying economic profits. Right, economic profits or return on capital times the amount of capital you have. And it turns out, for example, the year end of twenty twenty three, top ten companies were twenty seven percent of the market cap in the United States, and they were sixty nine percent of the economic profit.

If you go back even a decade, they're typically in the high teens in terms of percentage, but they're in the mid forties in terms of economic profit. So not to say that anything is in quotes justified or not justified. So widening out the market, you say, like you'd have to, there should be an economic justification for it, not just this is how it used to be. You should go back to being what it used to be.

Speaker 2

So I'm going to read this verbatim. I put it on Twitter. This is Harvey D. Shapiro in Barons with research from Arizona States. Henrik, that's some blinder. Just eight six stocks accounted for half of the total stock market wealth creation. Over ninety years, less than half of the stocks in the universe generated any returns. Only forty two percent earn more than risk free treasuries. Less than four percent of thousands and thousands of stacks in this universe

accounted virtually all of market gains. Harvey Shapiro, tour de Force and Barons and the guy to talk to about it Michael Mobison with us right now modern portfolio theory and Peter Lynch called it diversification? Is it our evil?

Speaker 8

I mean, it's this is the most challenging thing when you think about acting active management because let's say, so, just just to play back that you said, it's a handful of companies that generate most of the shoold of wealth over long periods of time. Let's say you're a portfolio manager and you're smart enough to have identified one of these and put in your portfolio. Let's say you bought Apple fifteen years ago.

Speaker 5

Awesome. What happens is it becomes so big in your.

Speaker 8

Poor folio that you blow through all of your diversification requirements.

Speaker 2

Will danofsving this fidelity?

Speaker 5

Will Dan, I mean to anybody that's big like that.

Speaker 8

So so it's a funny thing that on the one hand, you see the numbers and you know that, and on the other hand it's very difficult to actually take advantage of it. And by the way, for your own personal account, people can do this, right, even Berkshire Hathaway. I know they sold back their apple steak, but a couple of quarters ago it was fifty percent of their public equity portfolio. You can't run a fund with fifty percent in the largest company in the world, mostly liquid company in the

world right on a viable business basis. So it's a very interesting contrast. But the point being, the fundamental point is this skewness. And by the way, it's not just the United States.

Speaker 5

You go around the.

Speaker 8

World, Best and Bunder around the world Best Best and Bunden did a world in developed and developing markets.

Speaker 5

Best and Bunder did his work with some colleagues around the world. Same as xact pattern. And by the way, we don't know exactly again why.

Speaker 8

This pattern exists, but that's units shows up that extreme skewness shows up over time everywhere.

Speaker 4

I'm curious just about the role of active management today in light of what you're saying. So for the novice or the naive. Why is it still appealing today and to whom is it an attractive option?

Speaker 2

Right?

Speaker 8

Well, first of all, I mean active management is never going to go away, and nor can it go away because it does two things that are vital and by the way, these are very important positive externalities.

Speaker 4

For the world.

Speaker 8

Number one is liquidity. People forget about liquidity. It rears its head when we don't want to see it. And then second ist price discovery. So someone's got to make the trains run on time and deliver the mail, making price efficient. So indexers are free riders. Jack Bogel, by the way, God bless him, would completely agree with this. They are all just free riders. And not everybody can be a free writer obviously in some sort of a system.

Speaker 5

That's number one.

Speaker 8

Now number two, just David, to your point why this has been so difficult is the average mutual fund manager who competes with the S and P five hundred as his or her benchmark, has an average size of their portfolio is smaller.

Speaker 5

Than the market cap of the S and P five hundred. Right.

Speaker 8

Here's the logic is when large caps rip, which is what's happened last day? Seen it active gets really struggles, right, because you're just not exposed now when, by contrast, when small cap does well relative to large cap, active does really well.

Speaker 5

So that would be another thing to bear in mind.

Speaker 8

If you say, well, I think this this contry, you think it's going to go away, and the small caps a gonna do better, We're gonna get more balanced, balanced market. That's actually very good as good a backdrop as conceivable for active management, and we have all the data in the report to sort of back up that assertion.

Speaker 2

Michael Molson Private equity, I just I look at the the new credit and equity, the ill liquidity there, the lockups. It's like VC reducts once over. How's this How's this tragedy gonna end?

Speaker 8

I like that in the in the questions, But no, I don't know.

Speaker 5

I mean I think that.

Speaker 8

You know, we wrote a huge piece called Public to Private Equity States a long term look. We looked at it took a fifty year look at public equities. You know, obviously the story there there are fewer public companies around.

Speaker 5

They're all on average larger.

Speaker 8

So why are there you know, why do we have sixty percent of the companies We did to nineteen ninety six entry question. We looked through the rise of private equity and then the rise of venture capital and how this happened. Now, look, I think that we were we just came through a period of very low interest rates. And if you're running money and you have liabilities to satisfy, you needed to go out on the risk spectrum. And venture does it through speculative companies or young companies, buyouts

to do it through leverage. We've come through that phase and that's done right. So that's an interesting thing, is like what do you need to do to satisfy your liabilities? And then all these things the problems As you know, anytime assets flowed with a certain asset class, it always becomes more challenging to deliver access returns, and so we follow the flows to some degree. Now, look, clearly in venture, clearly in buyouts, there are niches, there are spots, there

are people that will navigate effectively. So just as I don't want to say the whole thing is challenging, but by the same time, and it's a.

Speaker 5

Story that people now understand.

Speaker 4

Thomas done such a wonderful job of framing who you are and what you've done and I'd love to ask you what animates you or gets you thinking about one issue or another. In particular, how do you approach your research? Is what provides the flash of inspiration.

Speaker 8

David builds on my wealth of ignorance. So basically, there's a puzzle out there, there's something I'm curious about I don't understand. And even things like active to pass that we talk to republic to private or stock market contraction. These are things I'm like, I don't really want to get involved with them because I know they're big, big

hunt territory, they're fraud territory. But by the same token, I'm like, I'm not sure people are getting down to the first principles of the basics of all these.

Speaker 5

Kinds of things.

Speaker 8

So I think that's usually what I've done, And then I think a lot about the investment process.

Speaker 2

Right.

Speaker 5

I teach at Columbia Business School, teach do you get along.

Speaker 2

With Abbie Joseph Cohen? And when she says she's dark in the door?

Speaker 6

Is it?

Speaker 2

You know?

Speaker 7

Yeah?

Speaker 5

I mean she's great. I mean she's great.

Speaker 8

We actually have a podcast up there and we had Abby on there and she was great, and so right, she's she's fa so like it does a whole it's a.

Speaker 5

Whole different level. But but the point is that investment.

Speaker 8

So if you say, like from from the beginning of identifying attractive investment opportunities to building portfolios are the process, every part of that piece to mean is fascinating.

Speaker 2

In Mike, here's the heart. We're gonna have to cut this off, fret you. So Michael Bar's did anymore Tiger's coverage? Michael Mobis said, I have to oblige. I'm gonna give you a nightmare. Okay, I don't care how smart you are, how smart I am. Trust me, folks, there's all sorts of company names you can whisper in my ear over money lost. How do you avoid an Intel? Right?

Speaker 8

Well, I think it's this is really hard and intel is you know, this is a case study the framework, and we're talking about how do you think about competitivevantage and businesses. The framework is typically is if a company is making a lot of money doing something, it's very.

Speaker 5

Difficult for them to do us.

Speaker 8

It's Clay Christensen one on what Klay Christiansen wan on one disruptive innovation work.

Speaker 5

And so that's the thing.

Speaker 8

Just to be very mindful of and you know, I don't think I don't know if it's an apocryphal, but apparently Apple Can went to Intel early on say that we've got this thing in the worst call this new phone, like we'd love you to got to build the chips, and they're like, yeah, I don't know. Like that market doesn't seem that big, doesn't sem that profitable. And by the way, this X eighty six thing is killing it for us, right, so you get stuff like that that

comes along. And by the way, Andy Grove was obviously a huge Christiansen fan and actually pivoted the company based on Christiansen's work, So that would probably be the thing to say is and is to take a look and be careful about that.

Speaker 2

I gotta be thirty seconds. The new Intelligent Investor is coming out. I've promised myself I'll read it like I read it, you know, when I could shave. I mean, what's the wisdom from Ben Graham and the crew from years ago that's still true today?

Speaker 8

Gosh, and by the way, Jason's wives and such kpe kill hands such a great guy to do that.

Speaker 5

A few things.

Speaker 8

I think that the two ideas I think most important from Ben Graham. By the way, Ben Graham understood behavioral finance before all this stuff was written down in a formal fashion. Number one is the mister market metaphor, which is this idea that we should always understand that markets go from overheated to under enthusiastic, and so there's and it's often fair, but you know, you get these extremes

and that basic framework I think is really powerful. And the one tom is margin of safety, right, which is if you're long something, always buy something with a lot of accommodation for you to be wrong or for things to bring in away that are not optimal, but margin of safety. Those two fundamental ideas I think will always be around as long as we're doing this.

Speaker 2

Micha mobis in consilient research. Morgan Stanley, thank you so much, your dad. To look at the front pages of Lisa Matteo or Lisa what do you.

Speaker 1

Have, I'm gonna get you fired up because we're talking about work from home. That's right, Okay, So you remember Amazon, right, they have the new RTO policy kicks it in January, five days a week. They want their workers to come back. But it just so happens that they ended this popular benefit for the remote work people. Amazon gave them the option to work for up to four weeks fully remote from any location in the country. They were hired, Yes,

they were hired, kidding. So a lot of people took advantage because during the holidays they did this because they were able to stay with family still work from home. But now Amazon is saying immediately it is done. We're not having that either.

Speaker 2

You live this, yeah, well, life, what do you think.

Speaker 4

I mean, your return to office six days a week. We see you here hunting these halls. You know, in my past job, I was working remote a lot, and there were certainly upsides to doing that, and I was able to travel a little bit. I think radio listeners can be a little bit unaware about where you are that you're able to do so much now, But I do, I did miss and do enjoy being around folks like Utah, and I think that that is.

Speaker 5

A little sacround. It's just too tear to his eye.

Speaker 4

Oh god, my work here is done too early for titos.

Speaker 5

Right continues, Okay, the cyber truck.

Speaker 1

Right, everybody wanted one hundred thousand dollars truck.

Speaker 2

Saw Tucker's the other while I saw Tucker. Tucker dropped the dry clean up at Milton's on Madison Avenue. There's Tucker's kept the harm Oh we kept the kids have the hummer.

Speaker 1

Okay, oh my gosh. Well, you know what it looks like, right, it looks like this futuristic stainless steel. But the problem with the Wall Street Journal says is the owners are complaining because they can't figure out how to clean it.

Speaker 4

When I saw they're not they're not painted right, there's no the one.

Speaker 2

I saw looked filthy full disclosure. Go.

Speaker 1

Yeah, so there is all these online forms are going crazy. One guy is that he spent like five hundred dollars on cleaning products. They're using all these different things. Tesla does say the right way to do it is he used like a soft sponge, but they don't actually recommend that you take it to a car wash. So that's the problem that these people are having. They say, don't wash it in direct sunlight, like there's all these restrictions

about how you keep it clean. So now they're saying, hey, I invested all this money in this truck, and I kind invests more money to keep it clean.

Speaker 2

Dumb questions now so popular they can't make them fast enough.

Speaker 4

Well, I don't know if that's true, but they're very eye catching, even though I hate them.

Speaker 5

They hate them.

Speaker 4

I hate the way they look. But you can't help but look. And I think that's part of the thing with it.

Speaker 2

What do they do to other cars when they bump in the night.

Speaker 5

They're huge? I mean, these things look huge.

Speaker 4

They don't even dent, like, yeah, it's stainless steel. Well it's not stainless, evidently, but it's steep.

Speaker 2

It's not stainless. Okay.

Speaker 4

I heard someone who's using like baby wipes or alcoholic clean.

Speaker 5

It, yes, or windows wind ducks. Yes.

Speaker 1

Next, Okay, all right, we're gonna get you a two for one. Okay, two for We'll start with the White Sox.

Speaker 2

Okay.

Speaker 1

You know their record, right, They're on this trajectory downward, not doing so well. So there was a whole breakdown as to why this is happening. So the plan is that they were gonna tank, suffer some short term pain, but then kind of rebuilt, kind of like the Cubs did, kind of like the Houston Astros did. But it just didn't work out.

Speaker 5

The reason the Wall Street Order book it down.

Speaker 1

They said the reason this is happening is because eight years ago, yeh, then General man Rickon, vice president Kenny Williams. They started this rebuilding project right with the players. But they're saying the rebuilding didn't work because those players didn't amount to a championship team. They said, the problem is in the executive level. They said that when they added their legend Tony Laruss and his manager, they didn't ask the others for it, and they just kind of brought

him in so they didn't have a say. So they're saying that is kind of the reason it's that executive.

Speaker 2

She auditioning for the fan. There go right thirty seven one, Michael Kay listening.

Speaker 4

Tell what do you do if your record is thirty seven and one?

Speaker 2

How do you rebuild it? The way you rebuild is a four or five year Mister Rubinstein's getting the back end of this at the Baltimore Orioles. It's four or five six years. I don't understand the pixie dust, but it's four or five six years, and then it's supposed to click in. Some of that's happening right now with the Detroit Tigers, you know, and I should point out the Tigers end the season against the Chicago White Sox,

and so that's actually really germane to their future. But you know, we'll see.

Speaker 1

Okay, I got to talk the Dreaded Red Sox.

Speaker 2

Meana Chimes just emailed in and said, Lisa, you've.

Speaker 1

Killed that, thank you, the Dreaded Red Sox. That'shere we're going. They are reportedly retiring the blue alternate jerseys.

Speaker 2

Thank god, you didn't like them.

Speaker 4

Do you like the yellow jersey?

Speaker 1

But they're keeping the yellow report okay, yes, okay, so it's the City Connect jerseys. Yes, so they're keeping the yellow, but they're going to get rid of the blue, put a new one in. They don't know what the new one's going to be. So you're going to have the regular Home Whites, alternate Home Reds, Road Grays, yellow jerseys, and then the new City Connect jerseys as a fifth option.

Speaker 2

Okay, no names of the back, thank you. Okay, and just the whole jersey thing, what do you think? Yeah?

Speaker 4

I know you see it in the NBA as well.

Speaker 2

Man. I love the Padres have the military jersey because San Diego it's with the Navy there. It's just so incredibly important. But you know, it's sort of like in you know Pharaoh taught me in the English Premier League. It's there's some real fails. There's some down in flames. Are you doing? Are you done with baseball? You got one, but we're done with baseball.

Speaker 1

For all you soda drinkers out there, I'm not sure if you've tried to do someone, But Coca Cola is ditching the spiced flavor. I hate to break the news to you, but they're ditching it. It wasn't even on the market on story, so it's gone. I guess it wasn't working out too well. But Coca Cola did say they have a new one on the horizon. They won't say what it is, but they did have the Oreo flavor. Oreo Flavor not too long ago.

Speaker 2

Into your house.

Speaker 5

I do not know.

Speaker 4

They were giving them away for free at the Barkley Center when you got off the subway, and how was.

Speaker 2

Yeah, I should point out, and you know, mister Bloomberg is the driver of the truck here. Then he reiterated yesterday at the Earth Shot Awards, what sugared beverages are doing it to diabetes worldwide? Exactly in moderation, I think is where we would stand, Lisa Mateo, thank you for that. This is a Bloomberg Surveillance podcast, bringing you the best in economics, finance, investment, and international relations. You can also

watch the show live on YouTube. Visit the Bloomberg Podcast channel on YouTube to see the show weekday mornings from seven to ten am Eastern from our global headquarters in New York City. Subscribe to the podcast on Apple, Spotify, or anywhere else you listen, and always on Bloomberg Radio, the Bloomberg Terminal, and the Bloomberg Business app.

Transcript source: Provided by creator in RSS feed: download file
For the best experience, listen in Metacast app for iOS or Android