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Question or interview to day Jean Beavan out of Princeton, all of his good work at Black Crack, and of course with his Montreal heritage, with a real understanding of Canada. We're doing Canada in this half hour. Stay with us, folks. It's going to be interesting, Jean Lescott, get away from Canada first to the moment at hand. What I love about your note is you talk about time. You talk about the x axis. President Trump's x axis is a little different than the leader of China's x axis, isn't it.
Yeah, I think totally.
I mean, there's, uh, there's a speed at which things are happening right now that is, you know, unprecedented lots to figure out. Ninety days is a short period of time, and you know, I don't it doesn't seem that China, for sure is is on the same time frame right now.
So there's there's a there's a bit of a gap there. We'll see how that gets resolved with.
All the resources of black Rock has. When you hear the word negotiation, the President loves to say this negotiation. We're working towards a deal, are they, Jean.
Beava, I think you know, one one of the key things that we've come to a conclusion now is, you know, trying this negotiation, trying to understand what will be the tit and tat steps along the way, it's probably like a futile exercise.
I think. I think we need to think more about.
Like what are the kind of you know, the forces that will be at play that would shape the outcome.
No matter what the intent or the negotiation tactics are.
So we think there are some mutable laws at play here that you know, you cannot break.
And so that's what we try to focus on.
One is on the trade supply chain wirring that cannot be kind of on one overnight or very quickly, so that's gonna play into the shaping the outcome in the near term. And the other is the dead level in the US that's going to be a constraint as well.
John, I think you know, most of our viewers and listeners grew up in a world where globalization was the backdrop for global trade, global free trade.
Is that over, Well, it's gonna be evolving for sure, based on you know what what what is being contemplated here. I think you know, again, this this, these are decades in the making, and you know it can evolve. I don't think it's going to feel very different here from now. We're very linked, we're very intertwined.
Uh.
And again there are these immutable laws, right so, I mean we've built this you know, international trade framework for many decades.
Uh.
And you know there's no way to flip and close Crain account deficit and at the same time rely on foreign investors to finance.
Thirty percent of the debt.
Right So those two things, you know, you cannot one and not the other. And so that that's kind of these forces that will be there. I think, so globalization is being rewired. It's going to look different, but I think.
There's going to be a version of globalization that's going to still be very much there.
And I guess Jehan as recently as the beginning of this year, the I think the discussion among most investors was about the US economic exceptionalism visa via the rest of the world.
Is that now over?
Yeah?
Well, that is certainly the big question in every comline conversation. I spent a week in Europe last week, and you know that's the starting point of all conversations, especially since we subscribe to this, to this idea that like europ inequities would be outperforming for fundamental reasons that is being tested, that shaken, certainly, and that's not a given for lobal rassers.
I do think for US, we focus on what we call mega forces like ai UH and think about where they're more likely to play out and quickly and generate profit. And that still leads us to see the US as as a place where we're going to see return over like a one two year horizon. But clearly it is more uncertainty now imanating from the US, and that is denting that that teases that exception.
Can I go nerd?
Jean be sure?
Okay, We're gonna go nerd right now, Folks the Global Wall Street, you can do this with doctor Boven of Blackrock Sean. What if I'm fascinating here is the media is fixation on OMG, It's all over we're all gonna die.
And the other side of the coin is somehow we're gonna get back to what we did pre Trump and what I'm thinking of here out of Princeton, and there was all sorts of great work there is we get almost a dampening function to and in between this a sign your sotal dampening function of this complex real GDP trade and all where we just moderate over time after some new middle tendency between doom and gloom and the
American exceptionalism. We do is that where we're heading is to some middle tendency out there somewhere.
Yeah.
Well, I think that's another way to talk about these what I've been talking about, these immutable forces. I think we you know, we it's very easy to get stuck on the fact that uncertainty is high. I think this is the word that is I still not cannot pronounce it properly, but that's the word that This is the most often mentioned these days, uncertainty.
And I think this is easy to stop there.
I think, you know, it might not be the outcome that people would have liked that's gonna come, but I think we're going to get more clarity the smoke's gonna come out. There are forces that will shape what's gonna happen, independent of independently of like the opening gambits, we're gonna hear and I think this is what we need to focus on. And it's kind of a middle ground that will will discumber, of course in the next few months.
Jean Bovan with us with Black Crock on this moment that we're all living futures negative seven the vics. Paul noted under twenty eight yesterday at twenty eight point three six. All right, now we welcome all of you on your commute across North America. Good morning in Mexico City, Good morning in Canada, and of course on YouTube, growing each and every day. Subscribe to Bloomberg Podcast. Lisa Mataloe humbled by the growth there. It's absolutely it's because of her newspaper paper.
Second, yeah, you know, absolutely, no question.
Jean, let us switch to Canada. I was supposed to do a seminar with you in Toronto. You couldn't make it. You were with Martin Sant Louis trying to get the Canadians into the playoffs, and Jean, I look at this moment in Canada and I think we can look at it as the liberal tradition of Quebec and Lower Canada, Upper Canada and then out to the west, a far more conservative tradition some would say, almost trump like in its nature. How will Canada move forward after this election?
Well, you know, I think the the.
The Canadian experience over the last two months, uh is is another kind of testimony of the unprecedented the world we live in. Things have been completely upended compared to where they stood, you know in January. Uh and this is entirely driven by uh, you know, what's happening south of the border.
So that has.
Completely uh changed the political calculus in in Canada and uh we see that elsewhere in the world.
Right.
So I think this is we'll see what happens on Monday, but clearly this is about how Canada we'll deal with the US going forward. It's about how it's gonna kind of rewire itself given the evolution uh and you know uh and one of the big questions will be on how internally, uh they are able to increase competitiveness between and across provinces, because we know that trade barrier between provinces are higher than with the US, So there's an opportunity there, I guess to explore.
Are you optimistic that Canada can find a new productivity as America has.
I've been working you know, on commissions and things like that for the last thirty years and Kenda trying to think about how we increase the productivity and the king productivity which is.
Still is not resolved.
But I think I do think that, like you know, increasing trade across provinces and reducing those barriers is one way.
To do it.
I think that might also give an impetus to to spend on things that you know, we were relying on other partners due to supply and so that could create as well some some opportunities in Canada. So you know, I'm not I'm going to be skeptical until I see it, but you know, they are their opportunities.
Well, John, you're you mentioned you're over in Europe speaking with black Rock clients recently. What are they viewing How are they thinking about the US, the US markets, the safe haven nature of the US. Are they viewing the US these days?
When I was exactly there during the week where this kind of came to an head, right when we saw the ten year and through the year, like move like very aggressively up on over the course of hours and days. And I think that that certainly cut the attention of investors.
And I think.
What's happening here is like and it's a natural tendency. Right when you're facing something you don't understand and it's out there, I think you tend to go back home and stay closer to the home base.
I think this is.
Exacerbating a bit of the home bias that is a natural you know, we've been talking to clients globally for years about like you need to reduce your home bias, you need to diversify internationally. Well, in an environment like this, it kind of goes in the opposite direction and reinforces it.
So that's certainly something you could pick up, I think.
At the same time, and I do think that you know, people understand that like treasuries has been taken as the safe as asset in the world and unquestionably, uh and now you know, people ask.
Questions about this. So I still think this is you know, this is this is.
At the margin and uh, you know, this is an immutable force that we uh, it's a freshole equilibrium. But we in the US cannot afford you have a term premium that blows out because the debt will become you know, unmanageable and so on. So I think they'll at the end of the day that's going to be contained. But the fact that people are asking those questions it is certainly notable.
Jean, thank you so much. Doctor Bovan with Blackrock thrilled that he could be with us today.
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Brian Kingston is hugely qualified. He's got a fancy title with the Canadian Vehicle Manufacturers Association, but he's all also, I got bulletproof academics led by Carlton University on trade and on what it means for auto manufacturers. What is the biggest conceit myth thing we get wrong, Brian about that bridge between Windsor and Detroit.
Well, look, I think the biggest myth that we see there is that this bridge and the bilott of relationship in auto between Canada and the US primarily benefits Canada when the fact is we're so deeply integrated over sixty years and now the United States actually has an automotive surplus with Canada. And what many people don't realize is that Canada is the largest export destination for US manufactured vehicles by far. The Americans send more cars to Canada
than they do to China, Germany, and Mexico combined. So we're deeply integrated and we effectively build vehicles together.
What is the tone of the layoffs right now? Over a beverage of my choice, I'm noting Volva laying off. I believe it was nine hundred people. But give us the immediate Thursday morning state of the labor economy in this trade war.
Well, look, it's all about uncertainty at the moment. Automotive is a huge sector in Canada. We've got over one hundred and thirty thousand Canadians directly employed in manufacturing, but if you look at the broader industry impact, it's closer to half a million. And there's just no clarity on what the path forward is right now. I mean, the
tariffs are on, then they're off. The interpretation of the tariffs changes consistently, so for anybody in this industry, it's just so difficult to plan right now, and of course that has a huge impact on the labor market.
Okay, one thousand, Henry Ford's center drive Yep, and Google misspelled it. It's center. They misspelled center. I don't understand that this is in Windsor Ford Motor Company, Windsor Engine plant, Paul. Imagine the conversation in there this morning.
So, Brian, when you talk to the k and manufacturers, what are they doing today? How are they planning? How are they are they just kind of how are they just going day to day?
Well, what we're seeing is because of the uncertainty, it makes it very difficult for companies to move forward with investments, to deploy new capital, of course, and Canada has received over forty billion dollars in new auto investments since twenty twenty, huge reinvestment into the industry. A lot of that's related to electric vehicle production. So there are some big, big projects underway or on the books, but until we have clarity on the tariff situation, it's very difficult to proceed.
And just to give you a sense of how expensive these tariffs are, we're estimating that US based manufacturers are going to incur about one hundred and seven point seven billion dollars in cost if they remain in plate So what makes it hard to move forward with any project?
We're talking with Jean Beavan, Blackrock, you know, Montreal, Brian, it's a city up to the right, it's up this Saint Lawrence. We're talking with Joe Bovent And to me, the basic idea is this word negotiation. I don't know what it means. What if whoever the new Prime Minister of Canada, what if they just say no to President Trump, We're not going to participate in this trade war. What are the consequences for Lower Canada and Upper Canada?
All the consequences are are massive. I mean, the Canadian economy is so highly dependent and integrated with the US, you know, and that goes back to we had a bilateral trade agreement initially then NAFTA and of course now the US MCA. And because of that, all of our supply chains are on a north south basis. So it's not as though Canada has the ability to diversify and do it quickly, pivot to Asia Europe. We are truly
connected with the American economy. So you know, I think negotiating with the US day one for the incoming Prime minister has got to be the top priority. And for auto over nine eighty percent of what we build in Canada goes to the United States. That's how the industry has that we found it.
That is zero amazing, Brian.
What does all this uncertainty within the auto industry mean for the transition to electric vehicles? It seems like it was kind of sputtering anyway. People were unsure about the demand. I can't charge so on and so forth. The prices are too high. Does this make the transition to EV's even more difficult? Is that what you're hearing from some of your manufacturers.
Yeah, it definitely does. I mean, first of all, we're anticipating because of the terrorists that vehicle prices could go up by as little as forty seven hundred US dollars, but could increase up to over ten thousand US dollars. And for EV adoption that's particularly problematic because evs are more expensive. It's still a new technology, and so you price gap in Canada of about fourteen thousand dollars between
a gas powered vehicle and an electric vehicle. So now you throw in the economic uncertainty that these tariffs are creating the potential for a downturn, which obviously has an impact on new vehicle sales, plus a price gap that could even widen because a lot of the battery components come from other parts of the world which will be impacted by the US reciprocal tariffs. And it doesn't add up to a good situation for ev adoption.
Got one, This is brilliant, Brian. I got one final question, whether the Canadians are going to Myrtle Beach or Palm Beach. It's over, isn't it.
Nobody's traveling right, No, I mean, the the numbers that we're seeing are just phenomenal. Some of our major border crossings, you're seeing travel down in some instances over forty percent. And so Canadians have really taken this personally. We're so closely tied to America and it's been such a strong relationship that a lot of Canadians just feel really kind of saddened by what's going on, and so they're canceling trips. So it is having a big impact on the tourism industry.
We look for just speaking to you again. Brian Kingston's President of the chief executive officer the Canadian Vehicle Manufacturers Association and is closely affiliated with a VAMP Forum, which is a wonderful economic effort up at Canada.
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Hugh von Steinas with you yesterday with Oliver Wyman. When Hu von Steinas wants to understand sanctions, there's one person he turns to joining us now from Oliver Wyman in Washington, Daniel Tannembaum. He's been a huge support for all of our efforts here. Just you know tannabomb one oh one, Dan Tannerbaum. Has sanctions against Russia been successful?
Well, Tom, thank you for the intro, and it was good to see Hugh on yesterday. I think sanctions on Russia have played a role, But I think the challenge we've seen, particularly since Trump has taken office again, is the US really hasn't been driving on sanctions policy much at all. When I talked to my clients in the European Union, in the UK government, they're really not getting
the same level of engagement. So without the continued usage of sanctions and then the enforcement of them for those who would violate them, it is hard to say that they're actually effective.
So, Daniel, you're done in Washington, DC, the IMF meetings here, What are our trading partners telling you about kind of where they think the next hours will be, days will be, in weeks and months.
Well, I mean we talked about this at Davos. Cautious optimism I think has shifted into just pure fatigue at this point. I think we saw the market spikes over the last few days with the announcements related to China. But my anticipation last night was we hadn't heard from China, and obviously we did over and their reaction was we're not actually talking. So everyone's really looking for smooth air, for some degree of a clear path forward, and I just don't think we're seeing that yet.
Dan, at George Washington University a few years ago you took the courses. Is brutal. You think you're going to go in and get an a tannabomb. Was lucky you got out with the C plus negotiation three to two tannabomb. When President Trump says he's negotiating, is he negotiating?
Well, that's the question. I mean, there are certainly some talks going on bilaterally with different trading partners post liberation Day, but China's made very clear we don't know what you're talking about. And that is a bit of the question
right now of where is this discussion happening. Some countries are certainly having them, but remember all of these deals in ninety days was always going to be a tall order, and China is the one that probably requires the most attention, more so than anyone.
So, Daniel, are we literally going to be trying to negotiate seventy odd trading negotiations and deals and all that kind of stuff?
Is that what we're Is that our strategy.
If you're to listen to people like Peter Navarro, Yes, because we're not doing this in any sort of block form. These are really one off trade deals where we had kind of broader alliances where you could impose trade on a broader scale. So that does seem like what may happen. I hope there'll be broader blocks that come in for some of the discussions with USTR and other parts of the government, but that is a bit of the question at this point of how they're going to navigate all of these.
Now, Dantannabam, I want to come back to that discussion of doctor Navarro with some real criticism. I would say, within the Zeit case of doctor Navarro and Paul, would you say he's been sidelined the last week or two.
Yeah, I certainly have not seen him as much as we had it right.
I could never see Dantannabam's sideline norigy. Mister Tannabob's going to stay with us with Oliver Wyman here as we get this key claim data out here, we say good morning to all of you across the nation on your commute. The kept goods orders and non defense exit they come in and they're a little I'm going to call them a little shaky as well, and claims are spot on survey once again, Michael McKee absolutely nailing it that DOSEE doesn't have much to do with claims because claims come
in post severance. We have a two hundred and twenty two thousand statistic a non revision as well, So pretty much quiescent claims. Here is somebody waits the cracking of the job economy. All of our economic data, our study of it, including Michigan sentiment tomorrow up on a lot of housing data next week. It's brought to you by Commonwealth. Join over two thousand independent financial advisors. They're taking control of their growth with advisor centric support and future ready technologies.
Grow on your own terms with a partner dedicated to your success. Go to Commonwealth dot com to learn how We're going to jump back to Dan Tanabaum with Oliver Wyman. His claims came in quietly, a non event d'An tanabam, just the summation of all the corporate officers you talk to. They're talking to you about sanctions. What are you listening for from corporate America?
Well, they're not just talking to me about sanctions. We're spending a lot of time talking about broader trade policy. And right now, the question that people are asking, even though they know the answer they're going to get, is where do we go from here? And I think that is the real question people are craving. The market is craving some degree of a clear path forward, whether it's
more broadly on trade, I mean the topic of Russia Ukraine. Admittedly, it's been very quiet here in Washington this week on the topic, despite the fact that there were nine more people killed in an attack on Kiev last night, and the US is busy trying to put pressure on the Ukrainians for a deal, and not the Russians who were the one firing the missiles in Ukraine. So it is a bit of an odd time at the moment. But I think a lot of companies are standing by waiting
for some degree of a clear path forward. We're going back and forth so quickly now.
I mean, this is really really interesting. And of course here's the tweet from President Trump as he listens to Dan Tannebam. I am not happy with the Russian strikes on Kiev. Not necessary and very bed timing. Vladimir all caps stop, exclamation point. Five thousand soldiers a week are dying. Let's get the peace steel done, Dann. That wasn't in your textbooks at George Washington. I mean this, you know I'm going to go back to angry beavers. I mean,
that's where I learned my international relations. Dan Tannabam, this is nuts. We had a palm Sunday set of murders. We had the missile attacks last night in the heart oft Kiev. Why are we doing this, Dan tannebomb.
Well, and you know, it's wonderful. The President was pissed at Putin a few weeks ago. I think we saw that on one of the Sunday morning shows. But he needs to actually take action against Russia. There have been two major moves that the US has made on Russia since Trump has taken office again. One was by quietly extending Biden error Russia sanctions a week and a half ago with little fanfare. The other was actually by not doing something and letting an energy waiver expire to ban
the trading or financing of Russian energy. But the President needs to be more active on actually using the considerable power that the US government has to put more pressure on Russia and those supporting it.
Mister tannab I'm really honored to have you here as we get that tweek from the President of the United States. Daniel Tannebaum is with Oliver Wyman.
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Tina Fordham joins US now with Fordham Global. For say, when she was in school a few years ago, there was no course on how to interpret tweets. Tina Fordham Vladimir Kamma all caps stop, exclamation point. That's what we got from the President of the United States today. How does this move forward? Do we move our foreign diplomacy of Kissingerian real politic of those against Henry Kissinger? Do we move it forward by tweet?
You have no idea how painful your words are to someone. I mean, I've had the immense privilege of interviewing Henry Kissinger a couple of times before he left US, and I am a great admirer of his colleagues Malan Albright and other is you know, yes, we are. This is the tictokification of global politics and it's definitely not helping investors in business leaders or global leaders work out how to deal with United States, although it will cause jubilation in some quarters.
So I don't know, Tina is is it as simple as to say that the era of US economic exceptionalism is that at risk here?
So I mean that expression which has become part of investor parlance. US exceptionalism, of course predates this period by a very long time. The US is the exceptional nation, you know. So that goes back to manifest destiny and this idea of the US as having this, you know, all of these special privileges before we got to the dollar having exorbitant privilege. It is hard to see how this trend can be reversed in an enduring way. Quickly said,
that's me being diplomatic. I think Ken Griffin said something with a bit more alarm in his remarks. But as we're talking about sorry secretaries of State, I was thinking about Madlon Albright and the US as the indispensable nation. We're seeing the consequences now of the US deciding it doesn't want that job anymore.
What's so interesting here is in the business world, somebody will comment on your own Powell, and I guess we have adults within the administration counseling the president. According to reports, including our Josh Wingrove, Sir, maybe you don't want to say that, maybe you want to back up in the teen of Fordham World. Are there adults within our diplomacy or frankly at the Pentagon advising the president for example, on Ukraine? Sir, maybe you don't want to say that,
back up? Where's Rubio on this?
It certainly appears. I mean, experts were not in the room a long time ago, and serious people are marginalized. And when you have these what can only be I guess leaks about Scott Bescent having to wait until Howard Lutnik was in a different part of the White House to get the President to write out a tweet. This is where the CEOs that we talked to are starting to say, Okay, this is not three dimensional chess, if it ever was. This is haphazard.
So what do you advise your clients here is it? I mean, I'm just looking at the markets. It's been selling stocks, it's been selling the US dollar, it's been buying gold, I guess, But I mean, what are your discussions with your clients like these days?
I mean, in practical terms, this is an extremely difficult time to be the CEO of a company that has to get any goods from anywhere else. You know, there is no question that it's complex. What we are seeing is the you know, the natural impulse is to say, let's wait and see, let's wait for a bit more clarity to emerge, for the dust to settle. And there's always this temptation, isn't there to say, you know, right, musk is up or out, or so and so is down.
This is noise. I think we're moving out of the era of trying to read the president's mind and get in his good graces. We saw some side deals, whether it's Columbia University, my alma mater, or some US law firms, but we're starting to see more assertive pushback. Not across the board. Harvard can do this. Perhaps some other companies are are you know, in a position and feel they have influence on the discussion, But the pushback is starting.
Tina, thank you so much. Too short of visit Tina Fordum with this Fordum Blue Foresight.
This is the Bloomberg Surveillance Podcast. Listen live each weekday starting at seven am Eastern on Apple Corplay and Android Auto with the Bloomberg Business app. You can also listen live on Amazon Alexa from our flagship New York station. Just say Alexa play Bloomberg eleven thirty.
Right to it with the newspapers. Here's Lisa Mateo.
Okay, yeah, we all know, right the gold market surgeon. Remember at top about thirty five hundred dollars an ounce on Tuesday. So one hot spot for precious metal collectors. Can you guess where it is?
Imagine?
Yes, Costco Costco telling you gold bars, coins, They sell them online some of the store. But here's the thing that's different now, it's shoppers. They are cashing in on the company's rewards for gold purchases. So you had the Costco executive members using the Costco City credit card who could see a net reward of about one to two
percent of the purchase price. So they're buying thousands of dollars in these gold you know, coins or bars, and they're getting that little incentive that little cake back.
Does she have a deal? We don't know, I.
Mean, ZiT down.
Did she number new kat Kirkland address?
So next?
Okay, for those of you out there who have a child who's graduating the class of twenty twenty five, some pretty bad news that the job market not looking so bright. The Wall Street Journal kind of looks into this with a couple steadies. Employers are now expecting to hire the same number of graduates and they did last year, and that's really down because it was supposed to be a
seven point three percent increase. Another report showing consulting firms or actually planning to hire fewer graduates, and those are the ones like the potential first employer for a lot of college grads. So that's another thing that's falling back. So they're just saying that the future out there is not so bright right now as of this current.
The history of this, folks, is when it goes, it goes. When you get more difficult unemployment numbers. It's not some glide path. It's like suddenly, boom, I wonder if that's where we are in thirty three minutes next.
Yes, yes, and we missed this yesterday, but a big milestone for YouTube twenty years old yesterday, so it hit this milestone celebration. It's really taken off. The first video upload was yes April twenty third, two thousand and five. It wasn't really exciting. It was just this man standing in front of an elephant exclosure at the San Diego Zoo. Take a listen to it.
So here we are one of the elephants. And cool thing what these guys spent is that they have really really really long trunk trunks.
Told you're not that exciting, but the guy was actually one of the platform's founders who left the company two thousand and six. But it just shows how it's grown like it has. You know, it's given TV a run for its money, right the platform has rising stars. People go there for reviews. I know, people check out vacations, hotels, restaurants, things like that. Even music videos, especially guys.
This one.
It was the first music video on the Internet to reach one billion views op.
On Coardam Stars Condam Star, Yes to.
Me Racket Now.
That is South Korean singer rapper Side That was one of my favorite jams July twenty twelve. It was incredible, one billion, the first to hit one billions.
Today because you had a sugar gelato? Is that what this is about. It's incredible. That's going to be in my newspaper. And they came to me just over fifteen months ago and they said, Tom, we want to do YouTube internationally and I said, yeah, whatever, And I've been absolutely mumbled by the international growth of what we're doing. We say good evening to all of you in Asia Gham style. Remember the ham stock? Where did that come from?
South Korea?
Yes, good morning in South Korea?
Why did you give us?
We say good morningredible? That's wonderful, Lisa Mateo, thank you so much the newspapers.
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