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This is an honor right now. Dan Matthew joins US now chief Economist atwo point seven to two Steve Cohen shop and we're thrilling there and we can make jokes about one Sodo and all that with the New York Mets, except this is too important of a conversation. So you know, you're sitting down with mister Cohen and he's looking like I got to write out seven hundred million large And so did you say, quote this data Steve suggests some scope for a pickup and real consumer spending growth over
the next what is it fifty one years late? I mean, did you pitch Steak Cohen an optimism on American economic growth so you could sign the great Sodo.
I'm afraid I didn't give him specific advice on that signing transient economic Let's go.
Let's go to the heart of it, which is whether it's one Soto or any other sports type or business planning. It's based on animal spirit. Do you see nominal GDP falling down to some distress level?
Not at this point.
No.
I think the momentum is quite solid in the economy right now. You know, there may be some headwinds next year, depending on how much tariffs are put in place, how much immigration restrictions are put in place, But as of right now, the momentum in the economy is quite strong.
Hey, Dean, did you and your team when you woke up the day after the election and we saw we have President Trump coming back to the White House. We now have a pretty solid red wave, I guess in the House in the Senate, did that change your economic outlook for twenty twenty five at all?
I think the main the main things that I'm concerned about is the magnitude of the tariffs and the immigration restrictions, Because you know tariffs do you know? Virtually any economist will tell you tariffs will lead to price increases and slower growth. So we're just gonna have to wait and
see how much those are put in place. Immigration restrictions also mean slower growth in the labor supply, and that means either job growth is going to be slower, or it means that the labor market is going to tighten much faster than it has been. So those are those are the things that I'm concerned about looking forward.
So given that backdrop, what do you think your Federal Reserve is going to do here in this December meeting and then maybe that in that first half of next year.
Yeah, so we think that the Fed will cut next week unless you know the CPI and pp numbers point. PI numbers point to a really ugly core PC reading for November. But if that's sort of in line with where it's been that, I think the Fed does plan to cut him and they will do so. But we also think they're going to switch to a quarterly pace of great cuts starting in Q one, So they'll they'll slow down the pace of cuts and just watch to see what happens on the inflation front.
Dean, the macky economics is a Stanford economics in the whole heart of Boskin, Taylor, the other giants of Stanford, even over in the financial side with Bill Sharp is get out of the way and let us grow. So if President elect Trump says to Steve Cohen as he's trying to get seasoned tickets because of one Soto. If President elect Trump says get out of the way and let the economy grow, does that ring true to you that that could happen.
I think the economy is growing quite solidly right now and that will continue absent any shocks. So I think that, you know, the momentum is quite solid. Consumers have strong wage and salary income growth, correct, profits are very strong. So the setup is quite nice for continued growth as long as policy in a sense doesn't interfere with it.
Yeah, but I got to go pe Peterson on you, the late great p Peterson, Dan Mackett, whether it's charge card debt or the fiscal debt of the nation. Are we grossing up our debt? While? Will you enjoy the Macki boom?
I mean, there is a long run fiscal issue in the US. You know, we're running deficits that are too high in general, and they don't seem to be coming down in a significant way, and it doesn't seem to be a major part of the agenda for either party at this point. So I do think that's that's a
long run issue. It doesn't seem to be a short term issue that's preventing investors from buying treasuries at this point, you know, So that will be the true test is when investors say we think the debt is too high right now, they're not saying that the ten year treasure yield is four point one five or something like that, and so it's not as though investors are bulking at buying treasuries.
Dean, what's your view of this underlying US consumer here?
We're kind of right in the holiday period.
People are buying out there, buying gifts for Christmas and han Aga and all the other things.
How do you view the consumer these days?
I think the consumer is in quite solid shape. Wage and silar income is growing something like five and a half percent, and inflation, headline inflation has fallen down to you, on a short term basis under two percent. So real
income growth, labor income growth is quite strong at this point. Plus, households are the household wealth to income right now is higher than it's been at any point in the seventy years prior to COVID, So households are wealthier than they've ever been on average, and they have strong income growth. So that's why I think consumer spending has been strong and will continue to be so going forward.
Dean, when you're at the stadium, because you have to go to ten games a year to keep your job, do you sit in the Clover seats? Oberman sits down there the clover you know, the Clover Club seats right down like row one, roll Ford? Is that where you sit?
I have sight in those seats at times. They are very, very nice seats.
I love it, Dan Mackie, thank you so much. I love busting his juts. It is great. May I point out, folks that doctor Mackie has bulletproof academics from his time in Barclays. Mister Cohen saw that and said, bring that lad over to point seven to two. And he's delivered the goods for mister Cohen and giving great macroeconomic analysis tied into the policies of America. We hope to see mister Mackie at the Clover Club seats.
Yes, you're listening to the Bloomberg Surveillance Pod cat Catch us live weekday afternoons from seven to ten am. Easter Listen on Apple car Play and Android Auto with a Bloomberg Business app, or watch us live on YouTube.
Last time she was in I learned a lot plain and example, Monica Gerer joins US executive director, had a US policy at Morgan Stanley Wealth and there's like eighteen things to talk about here. But I'm sorry, I going to rip up the script. Greg Vllier over at AGF Toronto comes out today with a blistering summary of what we all know. But I guess we're ignoring two trillion dollar budget deficit. How will that impinge on policy? How?
What is the constraint of a budget deficit that is up two hundred and forty two billion more than in the same period last year.
What's a constraint?
Means that they're going to have to actually deal with it. And I think what's interesting about this incoming administration and Congress is that there's a lot of commitment to actually getting a budget through. We've been living on continued resolutions over the last year or longer, and essentially with the reconsideration of taxes as well as tariff revenues, et cetera, they're going to have to actually come up with a full budget package that is going to have to take
the deficit into consideration. So the constraint is how much do we add to the deficit and how do we make up for those losses?
Do you see any ability to go forget about cutting deficits and all the you know, the people that want to do that. Everybody's just not going to happen. Can we flat line?
Can we flatline? Most?
No?
I would say if you're thinking about I'm thinking about what flatline means right, if we're thinking about faith in US treasuries and the global marketplace, I don't think we're at a critical tipping point yet. They have to consider the impacts of deportation and immigration policies, as well as how griffs could impact inflation, and then package that in with tax cuts and how they're going to negotiate spending cuts as well. And then that's going to get you to a place of you know, are we are we
in the in the red or the black? And either any way you shake it, we're going to add. It's just how much. And even if you're looking at say a trillion dollar deficit over edition over ten years, that would be on the on the bright side and the glow. It's about essentially making sure productivity is strong as well as managed management of inflation and that's going to keep global investors right, still turning to the to the dollar,
still turning to US treasuries. So, yes, taxes are important, deficits are important, but it's about sort of the management and relationship to productivity and inflation. And I think that those three prongs sometimes get missed in the in the soup of the discussion.
You're head of US policy of Morgan standingly, wealvalth management. What's the first one hundred days going to look like this new administration? I mean he's gonna have of the House, the Senate, Yes, very narrow majorities, but still majorities. What can this administration get done to first hundred days?
You think, if you're looking at the executive branch, there's a lot that they can do.
Right.
Immigration is day one that's going to be a real change. We have to think about how much that looks like if you're thinking annually about three hundred thousand people get deported from the US already, If they're looking at a four hundred thousand number is what they've most recently cited, that could be an addition, that could be net one hundred thousand more. So those are very different outcomes when
we're thinking about near term growth and growth prospects. The other thing they're going to focus on with day one is tariffs and especially the way that we negotiate and reconsider our relationship with Mexico. So one of the things I've heard from DHS is it relates to immigration, is that they're going to be focusing on Central Americans, not necessarily Mexicans, because we need them for mining commodities, rare minerals, et cetera. So this is going to be a dynamic
first one hundred days. The Doge effect that people talked about, I think that's much later, because they're gonna use those first hundred days to come up with proposals before Congress actually considers them, and then we're gonna see the first writings on the wall of what those tax and budget conversations look like. So I think first hundred days is really about creating right the path forward and that map that we're going to follow through twenty twenty six and twenty twenty seventh.
Are we gonna have a messy confirmation process for some of these appointees and that could derail maybe some of these policy.
I think they're getting ahead of it right. This is the sort of the quickest we've seen in recent history of folks being put forward and then dropping out of contention for secretary positions. This is of record rates of turnover before the administration even.
Gets into office.
The critical thing here is that Trump is putting forth his personal picks and then responding to the limits that are being presented to him in Congress. So the Senator John Thune as majority leader is incredibly important in the Senate, and it's essentially creating this barrier right to some of the more outlier appointees. And he's saying, if you don't get you know, if they don't necessarily meet basic standard of background education understanding, we're not going to confirm them.
And the fact that he was actually voted on right by GOP members right to become the Senate majority leader, that means that folks are interested in maintaining a certain amount of independence and legislative authority in the Senate.
And the time we've got left, I've got to go to your earned experience. On the great City of New York. We just had a huge crime that's the focus worldwide, but far more of that is just running the city into twenty twenty five. When you look at the concerns of our fiscal policy, here, what's at the top of the list. For Monica guer.
We're thinking about fiscal policy, the first thing that comes to mind is, you know, management of the broader agencies when you're talking about, you know, the most recent crime. I think that that's top of mind for a lot of folks and making sure that the city is safe. Now from a fiscal perspective, top news headline right is congestion pricing right? And are they going to be able to bring in enough revenue? Are they going to be able to actually implement it? On jan five? So we're
going to be watching that. I think I think that they can do it right.
There's engineers they're modeling off Stockholm in London. Our taxicabs are third world compared to London. Isn't there like a bargaineer of alternative transportation that we're supposed to have like Stockholm and like London as we implement this good congestion text.
So that's the that's the thing is that you need to for the way we're thinking about the MTA and the way the state is focusing on is that we need to get the congestion tax first, get those revenues in and then they can secure that against debt. That canal build out and help.
You said, with all your experience, is that doable?
I think it is. I do think it's doable. I think that the I don't know the ins and outs of the implementation for taxis maybe what they're going to do is have everybody download an app. I don't know what that looks like. That's the easiest thing I can think of. I don't want to speak on behalf of the city and the statements, but I do think that
there are ways to get there. And if you bring in five hundred mili is the latest, uh, you know, guestimate of what they could bring in, that is worthwhile considering the losses that the MTA has experienced.
Were we on subway?
I mean to me, I'm a subway writer every single day for forty five years. I think it's the greatest mode of transportation in the world. I think minority there. How is the MTA these days just broadly.
Defined probably defined. I think they're still struggling with some of those you know, COVID losses, and they're going to be looking to essentially patch patch that revenue. They were already in a budget in balance prior to COVID. It just made it worse, and so something like congestin rising might be necessary to essentially keep service at a level that's tenable and then go beyond. So if they're able to actually use that revenue to secure billions in debt,
then you have a robust capital plan. But they have to find that revenue, and I think that that could come from congestin pricing.
Thank you for that, audible, Monica Guerrez with Morgan Stanley on US policy. We should mention also that shield the position of Director of Capital Budgement and Budget and Economic Development for the City of New York, among other dudies.
This is the Bloomberg Surveillance Podcast. Listen live each weekday starting at seven am Eastern on Applecarplay and Android Auto with the Bloomberg Business app. You can also listen live on Amazon Alexa from our flagship New York station. Just say Alexa play Bloomberg eleven thirty.
Joining us right now, Ellen Wald, Senior Fellow of the Atlantic Council, And what's great as we look at the complete total turmoil of the Eastern mediterrane and I don't even know where to start him and transfixed by it for five days, six days, we've had some great I guess, including yesterday. Ellen Wald is definitive for one volume on
the Saudi Royalty. Saudi is just absolutely definitive, and of course on oil and that Ellen I get out the distance from Latakia and the Russian port, and I get over to Tripoli and to brook In, Libya, and the Russians have to move eight hundred miles to reset up their bases. Perhaps what is the significance of that to the Arab world that Russia, ally of the former Syria has to move. What's the so what of that?
I think that so what is that there is an opportunity here to fill a small power vacuum that had been filled by Iran and Russia. When Iran turned around that oil tanker just as Assad, news that Asad had left Syria hit, that was a sign that they are not supporting this regime anymore. Russia retreating another sign. I think that that it's both a lack of resources I think on the part of Russia and also a strategic
decision here. And that says to me that there is an opportunity here for Saudi Arabia and also the Gulf States to potentially move in. They've got money, they've got fueled, they've got aid, and they could be the definitive, you know, the definitive force in the new Syria, and this is an opportunity they may not want to let pass them by drama.
For some of this is Peter O'Toole is t E. Lawrence going mental over Sykes Pico and the partition of Syria. Five six, eight years later from that you have the true partition of Syria. Do you just assume, maybe led by the Saudis, we're going to have a new partition of Syria.
That's an interesting thought.
I think one of the things that we've learned is that despite the fact that all of these borders and all of these lines were drawn, you know, by the British. Although although the Sykes Pico Agreement, everyone forgets that there was actually the Sykes Pico Sizanov Agreement and that Russia was originally part of it. So Russia's got a hand in that too. Is that these lines are actually here
to stay. As arbitrary and you know, bizarre they may have been, they're here to stay, and so I don't think that Syria is going to be divided or any any.
Different or the borders will look all that different.
I do think that the reason Israeli encroachment in the north of Israel to kind of extend their buffer there is interesting and could be a source of tension in the future. But I do think that Lebanon is going to remain Lebanon and Syria will remain Syria. What it looks like and how strong of a state it is remains to be seen.
Ellen, I don't know.
I'm pretty surprised that with all the turmoil we've seen in the Middle East over the last year and now most recently with Syria, I still got bread cruded like seventy one seventy two dollars a barrel.
I'm surprised it's not a lot higher. Should I be surprised or what's going on there?
Well, what's interesting is that, yes, it's an important and a major event in the Middle East and definitely injects more instability into the region. Despite the fact that Asad Assad's rule was not what it once was and that he was a very brutal dictator, he was still a fairly stabilizing force. At the same time, though Syria's not a major oil producer, it had enough oil and natural gas to satisfy.
Its own needs, and they.
Exported a little bit, but it's not a major producer.
And I do think that at this.
Point, really what we're seeing is that analysts are much more concerned with, you know, troubling economic forecasts and also these forecasts that supply is set to grow in twenty twenty five, in this potential for a supply an oversupply, and they're much more focused on that than they are with, you know, with what's going on in Syria as a destabilizer for the oil market.
You know, Ellen, I playoff serj veker Lenko's work at Carnegie and Dolmen for International Peace, and the basic idea here is we knew OPEC plus, which I guess is Rio talk to Moscow is that dead.
Okay plus is not dead. Okay plus seems very much alive.
The fact that they were able to put together such a comprehensive agreement and a complicated one as well, to stave off these planned production increases, I think shows that there's still a lot of negotiation going on. There's still a lot of open lines of communication, and opek plus is still alive and kicking. Although for every month that they push off the plant increases, the pressure is going to grow to eventually put that oil back on the market.
Ellen, I'm a big fan of the TV series Landman on Paramount Plus, So I feel like I'm an expert now in the US oil and gas industry. What are our domestic folks, our friends down in Texas, in Louisiana and Oklahoma? What are they are they still pumping the maximum amount of oil they can?
What are they doing down there?
So right now we're seeing US production at some of its highest levels ever.
I mean, we are currently the largest oil producer in the world.
The question is how long is that going to be sustained, particularly now that the region down there is dominated by large international oil players. We're talking Chevron and Exon are are really dominating now that they have bought out some of the small and larger players in the fracking areas.
So I think that their concerns. For example, Chevron says they want to focus on free cash flow, not production, not drilling, and I do think that we will see we are likely to see a pullback in some respects, although there's still going to be you know, strong production coming from there. I know some concerns have been voiced about the fact that, you know, the easy oil in
the Permian is just about used up. But you know that doesn't mean that there's no oil left and that we're not going to be producing from there for.
A long time.
So is there a glutt or warl.
I don't think we're quite in glut stage, but there's the potential to get there.
We're in a pre glut phase.
I think what's been great in just in the last again, in the last ten years, the US going from a net importer.
Yeah, exactly. Who talks about peak oil?
I talked to Ellen Walder like twenty years ago, and I'm going peek ohil pekah pieces shut.
Up, Tom, Yeah, watch law man, that's Ellen.
When do we get a new book? When do we get an update?
Come on, when do we get a new book? That's a good question. Not not not yet.
But we've definitely got some interesting other other things in the in the you know, in fire right now.
Very cool, Ellen, Netflix is looking for that. Ellen wald with us, your senior fellow Atlantic console her one volume. Saudi really can't say. Oh, thank you, ay Saudi Inc. I'm sorry I did it for the Netflix series.
They changed it.
From Saudi in shorter Saudi. Yep, exactly right.
This is the Bloomberg Surveillance Podcast. Listen live each weekday starting at seven am Eastern on applecar Play and Android Auto with the Bloomberg Business app. You can also watch us live every weekday on YouTube. And oh, he's on the Bloomberg terminal the day.
Look at the front pages. It is the Lisa Matteo Hour.
Lisa, what are you all right?
We gotta go to Juan Soto and the Mets.
Right.
Thank you to Ari for pointing this article out, big shout out there. So, yes, the Mets offer the most money for Juan Soto right outpitting the Yankees by about five million.
But really it could have been than that. No, it could have been more than that.
See it could be the perk of a suite for his family. That could have been the game changer, because the post is saying that Mets over Steve Cohen, he gave that green light for Sodo and his family to get cid he field for his family. The part of the deal the sweet. Okay, that's what he wanted. He wanted this sweep. The Yankees wouldn't give it to him.
See like above thirty.
Es like sixteen tickets.
This is sweet in the railing and they serve food.
The fancy this anywhere at City Field from eight from about thirty two hundred to about thirteen thousand middle Coll's hunting on the game.
He runs the place.
Okay, Well, here's the thing. I mean.
The Yankees don't give sweets to the Derek Jeter, h Aaron Joe. They pay for it now, discounted rates pay for it. So they didn't want to create this precedent, I guess.
So yeah, they're willing to do the discounted rate. But you know he said, no, I want it as part of my deal.
Yes, exactly.
The only question to me is it towards home plate from Scott Haven's uh suet or is it out farther down third baseline.
Yeah, that's good, that's a good I don't know exactly where it is. But any kind of sweet is nice. Yes, next, but it is it's pretty price. But the Yankees eight to twenty thousand, that's sweets.
Are all sold. I'm not sure.
About the Mets. Maybe now they will there you go, yes, good point. Okay.
This is from the Wall Street Journal to two most dreaded words when you get a text is when someone texts you call me, Oh boy?
Does that annoy you?
Like you don't know the urgency, you don't know how important it is.
So that's to say that it's all over social media.
Now.
The whole call me thing.
I get it because my son texts me call me, and I'm has, I'm going on my phone and like something's wrong and he wants to know where the peanut butter is, you know. So it's like it doesn't it doesn't work. So they're saying you need to change up the text. Okay, you say, please call me, no rush what you do? Okay, please call me when you can, okay.
Because nobody calls anymore.
Well, it takes a few extra taps. People of the thumbs, come on, just put the extra worring.
It's amazing how the behavior has changed.
It's absolutely Remember back in the day, when would you call your parents Sunday Sunday like your.
School yellege, I would on Sundays and they.
Had rates and lower rates like at nighttime on a Sunday night to call it anyway. So I even even now on Sundays, I try to reach out to the kids across the globe.
Oh you do, even though they didn't call you for your birthday?
Yes, exactly, yeah, exactly, daughter.
I might bowling the apple here up twenty six percent this year. I mean, we're all. I mean, I don't know what percentage of our phones are Apple, but our behaviors really changed.
Yes, yes, it's really really strange.
Yeah, a lot of people texting.
They also say that the younger people complaining because they're getting those call me texts from their parents who don't realize the text etiquette, and they're.
Saying, Mom, you can't just text call me like, you have to tell you whatever I want to. There you go, there, you come in charge.
You work for me. This is like doctor Phil.
Yes, trauma.
Stirn up some controversy. Okay, global ad sales.
They're actually set to top one trillion dollars in twenty twenty four thanks to online advertising sites like Alphabetz, Google, Meta platforms, Amazon. This is a report from Buyer Group Group m SO, Google, Meta, Amazon share. Total globe global ad revenue now at forty one percent. But there's a reason for the boost in sales, and it's not because of political advertising.
That wasn't.
The whole thing behind the boost is because of like the Paris Olympics, that was a big boost for it.
Those ads supported.
Tiers where people are paying more to see the ads. That's another thing, because they want to save a few bucks, so they'll pay more to have to see the ads. And also you have streaming services Netflix, Comcast, Peacock. They're also good news because you had comcasters showed the Olympics on broadcast TV but also cable and then also on on Peacock as well.
So global ad sales yep.
Topic one and again the number that you mentioned, Lisa, the digital players, Google, Meta, Amazon, digital advertising, so they're totally share advertising years.
Why should this trend stop?
I don't think it will stop because actually, if you're an advertiser, it's never been better to advertise now because you have really.
Good solutions for you.
It's instead of buying an ad on a broadcast network which you have no idea who you're reaching, if it's your demo or not. Now with these digital advertising platforms Google, Google, Meta, Amazon, YouTube.
All that kind of stuff.
You have much better information about who your audience is. It's targetting better, it's more valuable to the advertisers.
And they're allocating more and more money.
So it's and we saw yesterday, Tom, you were out of yesterday omnicomp, big ad agency buying into public group.
Two dinosaurs mating.
Yep, exactly right.
I just what if I go when I try to order something, and I've got to go because you go to see who Steve Cohen's buying next, And about two hours later I get an email from the people, did you forget something?
Yep?
That's sort of like weird it is. Do you have anything else?
In fifty seconds?
Yes?
In fifty seconds? Is it for the gen z ers I know you have in your household? Okay, gen Z twelve to twenty seven, that's the age.
That's the age.
Yes, that's the age.
They're becoming gen G which is for giving.
They're very giving. That's what this.
I knew this was.
They're very giving. Apparently this in the financial times.
Here's the reason why, because they're going to be the recipients of what financial I just call the Great Wealth Transfer. Okay, that's when the retiring boomers pass down the trillions of dollars do their assets over the next twenty years.
And here's a great lead sentence in this Financial Times article by Mariyan and Willingham. Generation Z has been raised on a cocktail of climate panic, internet activism and viral celebrity.
And that's why they want to give back.
Can we just get one of them to read a book cover to cover.
Yeah, they don't read, but they're giving.
They're giving. We're giving to Lisa Matteo. Thank you so much the newspapers.
This is the Bloomberg Surveillance podcast, available on Apple, Spotify, and anywhere else you get your podcasts. Listen live each weekday, seven to ten am Eastern on Bloomberg dot com, the iHeartRadio app, tune In, and the Bloomberg Business app. You can also watch us live every weekday on YouTube and always on the Bloomberg terminal.
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