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Patiently waiting is Francis Donald really can't say enough about her contribution to the measurement of American GDP.
The first thing I did this morning.
Francis, after the shock of the airplane crash, is I went to the Francis Donald page, which is Atlanta GDP now, and it's there at three point seven percent, etc. And I just say to myself, it doesn't feel like a three point seven percent economy. This is your wheelhouse. What kind of GDP growth are we in now and into the next two three quarters.
So maybe there's two questions there. There's what's our forecasted number and then what is actually the trend growth underlying? And we are still very much in heavy distortions from tariffs.
This is the number one issue facing all forecasters is that we've had massive front loading of activity into Q one and you might remember that created distortions that led us to the downside, and now we have some offsets coming through from that, and yet underlying the surface, we're probably growing around one and a half to two percent. This is not a recession type of environment. It's a sub trend type of environment that'll be enough to inch
that unemployment rate a little bit higher. But I've said this on the show before, Tom there are two Americas happening right now. Two American economies. There's the economy for the wealthy Americans and then there's one for low and middle income Americans. They're very different.
Paul's looked at me, said, tell you're rude. Maybe I should properly introduce you, ladies and gentlemen. Francis Donald, she is chief economist at RBC.
Was that okay, Paul? That was good? Thank you.
We saved ourselves. CPI yesterday came in a little bit benign. I think it was the term I heard most used yesterday. What are you looking for at the producer level today in terms of inflation?
Well, thank you for asking that question, because yesterday was all about why isn't tariffs in the CPI data yet? We were not expecting the tariffs to be in the CPI data yet? Might remember back in twenty eighteen with washing machines, took three to five months before we saw it show up. We talked a little bit about that front loading lots of inventory builds over the past few months. Those inventories have to be depleted before we start seeing
that show up in CPI data. But the question is, and I'm sure you've asked it to many guests, how much of this is going to get transferred from producers and importers into consumers. And those metrics are very different. So CPI is one measurement of price pressures that will grow in the US economy, but we have to use a dashboard, We have to use a basket to understand
which sectors are being most impacted and which consumers. Again, consumers very differently operating right now, are going to actually see those pressures come through?
When then, do you think we'll see it? If we'll see it in some of the numbers.
In terms of inflation, we get a couple more months, so later this summer we might see that flow through. But here's the thing. When I look at inflation, yes, we care about tariffs. Tariffs could be as much as half a percentage point on top of CPI. But I'm worried about inflation anyways. I'm not worried about growth in twenty twenty five. I'm concerned about some of the structural
pressures that will mechanically push up inflation. I'm concerned that that oeer that's shelter based on some of our models, is going to stop falling. We had goods deflation and disinflation. We're not going to get that anymore. So there's upward pressure on inflation heading into the later part of this year. Tariffs or nor tariffs, and as we talked about before on this show, I'm worried about some of these bigger
structural issues in play. A very tight labor market that's not because the economy is booming, but because America needs workers, not jobs, very big government spending inside this pipeline in play, and that wealthy consumer. So I get to high twos even without and play. And if we just focus on tariffs, we're going to miss some of the story underneath.
What's that do to economic growth for the US here going forward? I mean that it seems like the recession talk is off the table. I haven't heard that too much in the last month or so, but still should we be concerned about slowing economic growth in the US.
Well, maybe this is blasphemy for an economist, but I'm totally opposed to the recession no recession call being the defining element of your outlook, because you could have negative point one GDP and it be a recession and plus point one and it not be. The truth is this is not a great environment for most companies and households. So, yes, you'll have a job, you don't have to worry about losing your job. You've got to worry about your grocery bill.
You got to worry about rent prices that are coming up. Those savings are not as high as they were before. And even though there is wage growth, it's decelerating. So this is a muddle through type of environment, and that's going to be more problematic then. Actually, sometimes I would prefer a short, quick reset recession and a reacceleration. This is not what this is.
Francis Donald with us with RBC, and we will continue.
We welcome all of you. On a very sober Thursday. A horrific plane crash in India. We just heard from Danny Lee and Bangkok. It seems to be now no survivors will have to get more details on that, but we'll have more coverage. John Tucker leading our coverage here out on YouTube and Bloomberg Podcasts, and of course Lisa Matteo working on this as well, and Michael Barr always on the news. We welcome you on your commute across the nation. We welcome you on YouTube. Subscribe to Bloomberg
podcast growing each day. In Francis Donald's Canada, Good Morning, Serious XM Channel one T one that older technology hugely popular. Francis, I want to synthesize this Thursday away from this terrible plane crash. The fact is the dollar is on the precipice. Now, I don't want to overplay it with dollar gloom, but the fact is I'm looking at the Bloomberg launch pad and there's ten there. The Wall Street Journal out bed this morning on the trade sorry that Anne Marie Horden
covered in London. This gets to the larger problem with mister Trump's teariff strategy strategy, that is, he doesn't have one calculate the uncertainties of all these things that are bouncing off of into the math and the certitude of our economy.
Can you get.
There well, there's all sorts of measures of uncertainty, and no surprising, whatever measure you're using is at an all time high. And what that means for forecasters but also for businesses. My clients, the CEOs that I.
Talk do you hear from them?
What I hear is we have to risk manage around downside and upside. We can't have one scenario that we base our business operations on. We have to plan and prepare for a wide range. But this uncertainty, it is not actual policy that is problematic here, although yes, there are some elements of it that are problematic. It's what is the game that we're playing. We cannot write the
playbook until we know what the game is itself. And so forecasters and businesses are actually operating with much ward wider set of scenarios available to them.
So you go into two forty five Ulette Avenue.
I'm pronouncing that correctly.
I'm not.
Windsor, Ontario.
Windsor Ontario.
Yeah, I think it's it's sort of like edge of French, but it's in Ontario.
I don't know.
I'm lost, RBC branch in let in Windsor, Ontario. What's the confidence there to invest I.
Don't see it.
Well.
Interesting, you chose windsor Windsor has one of the highest unemployment rates in the entire country candidates at unemployment rate, but then if you were to head to the beautiful island of Victoria, BC, you would find that the unemployment rate is three percent. What is this? This is what tariffs do and it's happening in America as well, which is that you're going to have sectors within the global economy, the US economy, the Canadian economy that are operating in
very real I'll go back on my recession. No recession common, very real recessions. So this is going to make policymakers' lives very, very difficult because you can't ease rates for one place that's at eleven percent unemployment and high rates for another place where it's at three. So what we're trying to look for in a lot of the economic data right now in the United States and elsewhere, is do we see any evidence that there's bleeding outside of
those specific trade sectors into the broader economy. We don't see that now, and we don't anticipate that that's going to happen.
Interesting, but it could.
So when we look at a lot of this data, from inflation to growth to jobs. There's two types of diagnosis. There is this sort of toxic cancer contained or has it mustasticized. That's going to be the defining element between does the United States end up in a much worse situation this year or can it be relatively well contained? Transitory, temporary, all those words we're not supposed to use.
Francis, Thank you so much.
French stunted with US chief economists at RBC to gets started in the morning here in the American economy makers lots of economic data, that important CPI data. Yesterday it was a PPI this morning the business a set of data onto retail sales.
I think is tuesday.
I'm guessing, yeah, Tuesday. Francis is looking at me, dummy. You should know that. Thank you Francis for that.
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This is an honor.
My book of the Summer Within the Game is Kenneth Rogoff of Harvard University, our dollar, your problem. And what's so great is the academics of rogue off is so much the same but at the same time different from the prodigious abilities of Richard Claret of Columbia University at PIMCO, the former vice chairman of the FED.
We're honored that he could join us here this morning. The dollar is weaker.
Our audience just simply sees euro one sixteen into one forty three. There's a crisis of confidence. The Wall Street Journal in an editorial today, skewers, that's the right word, folks.
Skewer is the.
President on his trade policy. If it's our dollar, your problem, whose problem is it?
This morning? To see the dollar at the precipice.
I think there are a couple of things here.
First in agreement, Canada is remarkable and it's a fantastic book that the dollar is a reserve currency. People hold it because it's a store of value. It's useful in trade and financial markets. It delivers privileges to the US lower borrowing costs. Me more importantly, the ability to borrow a lot more. Tom, I do think we want to
put this in context. I don't see and I don't think Ken does based on what he's written, I don't see the dollar losing that status in the next say, five or ten years, simply because there's no viable alternative. But that doesn't mean the dollar is ever higher and ever stronger. So even a dominant reserve currency can have higher and lower bye and we may be in a period in which the dollar is trending down, not just against the year, a lot of currencies.
When you were at Columbia, did you work with Hyman Minsky? Was he before you?
Yes, Hymon Minsky was before he was before you.
You were the im Mondel Mendel, and I was with Professor Mundel, but not Mince.
I know this is this is sacrilege.
But how does Richard Clarida link every central bank wants gold into our dollar confidence? And frankly over to a June eighteenth meeting, Claire, I've never said this Clarida on gold.
Well, let me say this.
This is I'm following this pretty closely because the purchases in the official data, the purchases of gold are large, and they've been they've been picking up. I'll share an anecdote with you. I was in Asia ten years ago seeing a very sophisticated official investor, official institution.
And we were talking about gold even then.
This is like twenty fourteen, twenty fifteen, and that was in the context of Kiwi Infinity. And I said to him, well, why invest in gold. You can buy an inflation indexed security. It gives you a hashid against inflation. And he looked at me and he said, gold doesn't default. And so I don't think the US is going to default either, but certainly we have seen that allocation. And again talk
about back to the future. I mean central banks have been holding gold as a reserve for hundreds of years, and so we're sort of getting back into that mindset.
So, Paul, if gold doesn't default like a gold wedding ring and a divorce, is that?
Do you want to comment? No, thank you Rich.
As a professor of economics at Club, you when you have your class or your module on teriffs, how do you present tariffs to your students?
Great question.
Well, in the throughout most of my career, which dates back to the nineteen eighties, tariffs have really not been front and center. So I have I actually typically did not teach on tariffs. I have I have brushed off on if I were to teach it, how I would teach it. And what's interesting if you look at MPER working papers, there's probably been a half dozen working papers in the last six months on tariffs, and in the previous forty years there were.
One or two zero.
So it isn't interest to picking up. But the short answer is, tariffs of the scale and scope that we're talking about now in the US are something we haven't seen in decades, and they have implications for the economy
across the board. They generate revenue for the government, they divert some trade into the US, they onshore some investment, and so to actually take tariffs at the level that we're seeing now, say ten percent, seriously, is a pretty complex modeling exercise with a lot of moving parts.
So I'll leave it at that.
So as we think about it here, we haven't seen rising inflation. No, we haven't seen materially slower economic growth. We see a lot of the surveys at the University of Michigan and so on. Yeah, cite some concerns, but we haven't seen in the hard numbers. How do you think about the hard data versus the soft data, which is something that we've now been introduced.
To great question, and let me just say up front, you have to acknowledge that in the last four prints, the January print was more ugly, but February through May in the CPI have been coming in much better than expected. A lot of folks, including me, thought we would begin to see some of the tariff show up in the CPI report we got yesterday because it's for the month of May, and in the month of May, the government was collecting a lot of tariff revenue and it did not.
And as you mentioned, the economy seems to be holding in at roughly trend growth, the labor market holding in so so far so good. What it does tell me is, at minimum, we're not seeing in the data that US companies are using the tariffs as a reason or excuse to raise prices preemptively. We may see that once tariff's going to go to in fact more broadly, but yeah, so far, I think you have to acknowledge the US economies holding up quite well.
The former vice Chairman of the Federal Reserve System, and a good conversation here with Richard Clarida this morning, always with Columbia University, and of course Pimco as well. Trotting out yesterday, I'll give the ft credit. I can't remember quite where I saw it is the John Edwards chart of two Americas. It is breathtaking on consumption seventy sixty nine percent of GDP whatever fifty x percent I believe is that forer de style. It is shocking what upper
quintile is. It is shocking what the bottom third is not consuming in America? Does Clarita economics work in the polarity of the American consumer?
Are we so bipolar?
By Barbell if you will, Yeah, the normal fed talk doesn't work.
Tom, It does work, but you have to recognize that.
As I think I've said on this show before, I think the simplest way to think about it is that two thirds of Americans live in a home that they own, and around that percentage directly or indirectly owned stock. So if you own your house and you own stock, you've had a great run for five, you know, fifteen, twenty thirty years. But if you don't own your own house, you don't own stock, you've been falling further and further behind.
And that's at least a third, maybe more of the country that is a factor in terms of the nuts and bolts of how the economy functions, how monetary policy is transmitted. So yes, Claria economics works in this world, but it only works if you acknowledge the divergence in those two parts of the economy.
Rich, if I'm your Federal Reserve, I'm taking this summer off. I'm going to the beach. I'm not doing anything because that data doesn't mean I have to do anything. Is that a fair strategy here?
Well, I certainly don't think they're going to do anything next week.
Come I'm going to talk it up.
The FED sides comets do anything next week, but there will be a press conference, and I think the Chair may use that as an opportunity to signal the direction of trouble. You know, one thing I've picked up on in the last week or so is FED speak not only from Chris Waller, but also President Bostic and President Goulesby. That does indicate at least to me that the Committee may be open to what some have called a good
news rate cut. So I've been in this camp, which is the Fed's only going to cut rates if something breaks the unemployment rate goes up. GDP contracts again simply because it looked like with the initial tariff announcement the inflation hit would be so substantial. But given the better inflation data, and as I would point out, basically Clarida Galley Gertler monetary policy rule right now would have the FED cutting rate already, And so I think there is
a case for them to begin to consider that. But I think the inclination probably will be to take the summer off and the time we got left.
And I won't turn this into a Columbia dissertation, but let's go nineteen fifty one McChesney Martin. We basically yanked the Federal Reserve.
System away from the Department of Treasury.
We have a president who wants to yank it back. What stops President Trump from putting in FED leadership? Fed governors that understand the buck stops at the Treasury Building and not at the Eagles Building.
Great question, one that I thought about and lived through to some extent. I'll make a couple points.
One.
The President does nominate FED officials, but to be confirmed requires a Senate confirmation process. The Senate is not a rubber stamp for FED nominees, and so I think that's important also to candid I think the market will have a say, and particularly for for FED chair and I don't think this will happen. But where the president to nominate someone who the markets believe would not be committed to price stability and would not be a primarily independent I think you'd see stocks down, rates out.
Okay, but now I want to have I got cut.
I gotta cut you off. This is too important to clari. Are you going to get a twenty five basis point, pop Y Honor if we end up with a Trump chairman, or are you talking about a stick where we get out over five percent? Rogue offf even hinted towards six percent given selected events.
Not a twenty five basis point, you, Honor, A tangible a lift, yes, yes, and weaker.
Risk assets stocks, credit spreads, higher.
Yields, higher get I just don't think it would stick because I wouldn't want to be a nominee coming into my hearing with that market reaction to my to my The other thing, I'll say, tomm And it's a little bit wonkish, but look I'm on this show so I can be a little bit of a warm is Congress occasionally Congress knows what it's doing. And back in the thirties when the Federal Reserve Act was modified and amended, it was amended to disperse the authority for raising and
lowering rates away from the chair towards a committee. So it's the green span FED, it's the paler Fat, it's the Bernanke Fed. But by statute, rate decisions are made by a majority vote of a committee. Five of the twelve members of that committee are reserve bank presidents who are not appointed by the White House. Seven of them are obviously upper fullstering governors. And so I do think that the system has an intelligent design, and so I'm not that concerned about that outcome.
But if it were to happen, I think Ken is right.
If Catherine Man of Brandai's holding court at the Bank of England, does the Bank of England get it right? In a more fractured and spread out debate versus green Spanning and certitude in Washington.
A various stute comment because not all central banks have similar cultures. In fact, I remember a conversation with a senior back of England officials said that he actually viewed it as a as a feature, not a bug that in their system the governor occasionally is on the losing side of an interest rate vote. The descent, the culture of descent there is much more accepted than at the FED.
There are descents at the FED.
We've actually had some from some governors recently, but that is a difference.
Yeah, brilliant Richard Claire to thank you so much.
Thanks for making jimco and of course always with Colombia economics.
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I don't think Richard Clarita would be offended the giant of DSGE at Columbia Academics if I said this is the most important conversation of the day for Global Wall Street. Very difficult morning here with the plane crash, and Ian Lincoln joins us with the Bank of Montreal. They are the definitive Canadian bank, essentially the Bank of England, the Central Bank of Canada. Going back one hundred and fifty
one hundred and seventy years Demo capital Markets. Ian Lincoln, you have a shockingly dense eight paragraphs this morning, unfixed income. Do you reaffirm here with a cacophony of the moment a disinflationary vector? Can we drive the ten year yield under four percent? Price up, yield down?
I actually certainly think at this stage lower rates below four percent tenure yields will emerge as the path of lease resistance. Look at CPI yesterday, and as long as we don't see a material regime shift higher in realized inflation over the summer months, then by the end of the year we're going to see that disinflationary trend re established and presumably the FED back on the path of normalization.
My question of the morning, including to Professor Clareda. Let me go to professor Lingen. How does a week dollar fold into this? I have BBDXY folks, the Bloomberg Dollar Index, which is wicked good math. Good morning ninety nine FM in Boston.
It's a wicked good series. Em Lincoln and I have weak dollar.
But does that correlate with the Lincoln call of lower yields?
Well, I'm not redicating my call on a return of the dollar to prior strength. But if we do take another let's say, three five percent lower in the value of the dollar, that means we're going to be importing more inflation, and so that means the core inflation series could be stickier than we're expecting. So it's a challenge to lower rates, but I don't think that it will definitively drive that story given the trajectory of inflation at the moment.
Ian what's your view of the consumer? Heres Again, seventy percent of the US ECON comes from the consumer as opposed to manufacturing. What's your view of the consumer?
Here?
At the moment, the consumer appears to be on surprisingly strong footing. We know what happened during the pandemic. Anyone who could locked in a super low thirty year mortgage rate a fair amount, and so there was a fair amount of capacity to consume. Now we're up against a rare moment for consumers where the dollar amount spent on mortgage interest is equal to the dollar amount spent on
non mortgage interest. So that means that a lot of net borrowers are starting to feel the pinch of higher rates. In a way that we haven't seen in history, and that's a key index that we've been watching.
If rates are higher, what happens. I mean, again, a lot of folks have a lot of credit card debt, they have a lot of mortgage debt.
I think that that's precisely the issue. Rates are higher. People need to make choices in terms of what they consume. If we find ourselves faced with the another leg higher of inflation, that means in real terms that the consumer is going to be able to contribute less to growth still for the same nominal amount of growth. If prices are higher, you have negative or a drag on real growth. Cloth that's going to be the biggest risk.
And to close the loop here, I've got twenty seconds to get into important economic data. So you're just suggesting a lower real yield. I mean, the basic idea is the fear of a higher real yield is unfounded.
Sustainably. I think that that's right. I think real rates are going to move lower between now in the end of the year, certainly in twenty twenty six and beyond.
And across the board. I have a disinflationary and a worse labor market tendency in this thirty this Thursday data.
Does it shift the FED?
I think that what it does is it keeps the FED from signaling fewer cuts in twenty twenty five. If there was a case to only suggest it between tenty five basis points worth of great cuts this year, I think this solidifies fifty basis points. So on net, it doesn't shift the FED, but it does leave them somewhat nervous and for the summer summer months for sure.
Yeah, what's the greatest headwind to this US economy? Here? It seems like I'm looking at the inflation data today, it doesn't seem to be at least now inflation.
I agree, it's non inflation. Frankly, I think that the one major uncertain one major headwind is the uncertainty introduced by the trade war. The rules keep changing, and as the rules keep changing, business leaders are struggling to know where to invest capital, struggling to know where and when to hire, and so they're simply staying on the sidelines, and that uncertainty can compound. And that's the biggest headwind and fear that I have at the moment.
Dan Lingham, thank you so much, greatly, greatly appreciate that this one of the demon capital markets. He reaffirms a lower interest rate called price up yield down.
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Join us now.
Incredibly well timed with the uncertainties out there, particularly on moving steel around and stuff like that. He's with Mercury at Resources antime. Posner is with us in the studio every time he's on. I wish it was longer.
Longer. Let's squeeze us in right now.
What are we missing in the steel debate besides the romance of the nineteen sixty two steel.
Strike or that and the actual doing of steel? Where does America fit in right now? Yeah?
Do we have a couple of hours at this point in time? Good morning, So going to be back and well, we saw recently a couple of weeks ago, the announcement of the partnership quote unquote partnership between nip On Steel and US Steel. So that's the big news in the
steel industry. And at that same announcement that President Trump held during at his visit to US Steel, he announced new tariffs to go into effect, moving it up to fifty percent on import steel and aluminum, which was a bombshell for the industry off the cuff, and that was going to go in ef fact, that was a Friday when he was at US Steel announcing that new partnership and investment that we don't have any details on yet, by the way, but it was told that we were
going to start seeing import steel and aluminum tariffs moved up to fifty percent the following Wednesday, so we sprung
into action. The workload between that Friday announcement and the Wednesday and acting of the tariffs was pretty frantic on our front, working in dealing with our domestic steel business UH logistics and supply chain business and the import steel business that we do to rush steel imports off ships that were already on the water and import to clear them before the new fifty percent tariffs went into effects.
So we oversaw the move the deployment of import steel at ports that where it was not supposed to be coming off of just to customs clear ahead of the new fifty percent tariffs, So we have steel out of place in a bunch of places.
Fifty is a big number.
It's a big number.
What do we import a lot of steel?
Is this going to impact?
Who's going to impact? How's it going to impact.
It's a big number.
Yeah, it's going to impact you, me, Tom, Yeah, exactly, everybody and everybody else.
Steel.
Do we import a lot of steels?
We import a lot of steel? Is not enough?
Import it because it's better for us too import it versus to make it here, or we just can't make it here.
Yeah, I'd say that's a more philosophical question. Of course, we want to have steel making capacity in the States for national security reasons, So I don't think there's anyone that would that would say that that's not a good idea.
The fact of the matter is, as soon as those import tariffs were announced first twenty five percent, the domestic steel mills raised their prices sufficiently to take advantage of that, so that that hits us all in terms of inflation and consumer spending and so forth right, and import steel was still able to make sense even with the twenty five percent because of the domestic race.
Can I continue with dumb questions of the day. Is the time to do it?
This at the time?
Is steel steel like a steel comes out of the romance of the Mangahela River in Pittsburgh or New Core on some field in the middle of the Midwest somewhere, or Texas.
Whatever I'm dumb on this is that the same steels from South Korea?
Yes, same basic steel, right, there's different lots of different grades.
Types, specialties and stuff.
Raid steal a steel, correct, right, it's made with iron ore, It's made with metallurgical coal.
So you have a betage you're having a coke with President Trump? Right now? What's the Anton Posner intelligence steel strategy?
My strategy? And I guess I'm announcing my candidacy for mayor Well no, not today, but anyway the other day, right, I know when was here. But anyway, here's the thing. We all want more investment in American industry, whether it's steel, whether it's aluminum. We could talk about aluminum for another two hours also, but it can't investment. It's not going to happen based on a tweet or a truth social right, how's it gonna happen. It's going to happen by putting legislation.
In effect, it's going to take rolling up the sleeves in hard legislative work.
So we need a.
State policy to compete with the state policy of South Korea.
Right, state policy to incentivize actual investment. You can't have LB credits. There's credits, there's support on energy, there's working with the unions to make it, there's infrastructure and supply change. Can't we do that because we're in a cycle where our election cycle is based on sound bites, right, So I'm I'm gonna get a little bit get a little
bit off on that area. But you know, we're competing geopolitically, we're competing against countries that don't have elections, right, and that can make five, ten, twenty five year strategic plans on critical minerals and steeling.
I went to launches with new Core two lifetimes ago. Yeah, and there was a complete panic about steel dumping. Is there steel dumping going on right now?
Sometimes?
There?
Sometimes there is in certain types of steel and markets. It's very it can be, it's very special. That question time is very specialized. You might be talking about rebar, might be talking about wirerod coil or hot roll coils, bar it's a big baras like tomorrow, you want to just get.
Regular.
Note tell tell the intern from Duke to wake up in there. Maybe we can get in time back here.
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