Inflation and Tariffs in Full Focus for Markets - podcast episode cover

Inflation and Tariffs in Full Focus for Markets

Jul 14, 202536 min
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Episode description

Watch Tom and Paul LIVE every day on YouTube: http://bit.ly/3vTiACF.
Bloomberg Surveillance hosted by Tom Keene & Paul Sweeney July 14th, 2025
Featuring:
1) Ben Laidler, Head of Equity Strategy at Bradesco BBI, talks about the sustainability of the US equity rally and staying in the market. Stocks fell in early trading as the Trump administration escalated its trade war, with investors bracing for economic reports that will offer an early read on the impact of tariffs.
2) Rep. Jodey Arrington, Republican Congressman from Texas and Chairman of the House Budget Committee, talks about the passing of the Big, Beautiful Bill and his involvement in getting his party on board as well as Texas flooding.
3) Jane Foley, Head of FX Strategy at RaboBank, talks about the yen carry trade amid liquidity concerns in Japan and also discusses a weak dollar. Japanese bond yields spiked as the pressure in the country is being heightened by the looming election on July 20, with concerns over governments spending beyond their means also applying to the UK, Europe, and US, according to the text.
4) Henrietta Treyz, co-founder at Veda Partners, talks about incoming tariff headlines as President Trump's tariff strategy comes into focus. President Trump's weekend threat to impose tariffs on the European Union and Mexico is testing market resilience, following a series of escalated trade measures against multiple partners.
5) Lisa Mateo joins with the latest headlines in newspapers across the US, including a WSJ story on "Superfake" luxury handbags and the NYT report on the federal government adding new limits on student loan borrowing.

See omnystudio.com/listener for privacy information.

Transcript

Speaker 1

Bloomberg Audio Studios, podcasts, radio news. This is the Bloomberg Surveillance Podcast. Catch us live weekdays at seven am Eastern on Apple, CarPlay or Android Otto with the Bloomberg Business App. Listen on demand wherever you get your podcasts, or watch us live on YouTube.

Speaker 2

And the Equity Americans Now is someone who has been a confirmed believer in American capitalist and Benjamin Ladler that joins at Brudesco BBI. Ben to tariff's matter and the confidence to hold equities.

Speaker 3

Yeah, I think they do. Unfortunately, I think we'll do a bit of a reality check here. I mean, I think tariff complacency is high. I think the Trump administration's emboldened. I think the traditional Trump puts uh frankly nowhere in sight, and that's just I think feeding this this loop and maybe further inboldening the administration. So yeah, I think we'll

do a bit of a reality check. It doesn't make me particularly bearish, you know, looking further out, but I would certainly mind the gap a little bit in the short term.

Speaker 4

What do you think we're going to get from earnings here? Ben Again, We're going to kick off tomorrow with Jamie Diamond and JP Morgan and some of the other big banks. What do you expect this quarter from, you know, the corporate American.

Speaker 3

Yeah, so I'd be focused on two things. The good news is that the expectations are very low three four percent earnings growth. That's a very low bar, which I

think everyone's going to easily beat. The less good news, and I think the focus of earning season is going to be on the company guidance, especially with all this tariff uncertainty that I think is where the sort of rubber may hit the road a little bit and we're going to maybe get some less good news from corporate I do think this uncertainty remains very corrosive for corporate America for investment plans, and I would expect to hear a little bit about that from the earning scourse.

Speaker 4

Do you think the markets here again we're looking at the US equity mark. It's at our near all time highs here again retracing the selloff from a liberation day?

Speaker 5

Is that too much?

Speaker 4

Are the markets too complacent about the potential economic headwinds from tariffs?

Speaker 3

Yeah, I think we've become too reliant on this taco narrative. It's a sort of boiling the frog scenario. I mean, I think we're going to wake up potentially in a month or two's time and find out that somehow Trump has walked us up from ten percent taris to twenty percent tarifs, flipping the sort of narrative on its head.

And I think that will have an impact. It's a question I think of when, not if we may start to get a little bit of signs that tomorrow in the inflation print and the PPI print the day after that, and then the guidance from companies. But it's still early. But that's not fool ourselves. It's it's definitely coming.

Speaker 2

It looks then at the terrace and right right now yell budget labs at eighteen percent and they may model it in to a nineteen thirty four equivalent. Anybody that's studied this knows that's impossible. Does Bridesco, and particularly with your Latin American excellence, do you have a number that's doable? I mean to me, if we were at two or three percent before, is five percent doable? Dare I say eight percent on a blended basis?

Speaker 3

Well, I think the market has sort of made its peace with you know, something like ten I think the reality here is, though we may end up at double that, And and to your earlier point, the market's at twenty two times earnings. That's above average. The vix is at sixteen. Last time I looked well below average. I think that's just a very vulnerable you know, setup as I say, I'd probably buy any significant weakness, you know, looking further out,

I wouldn't want to bet against corporate America. I will certainly been buying the rest of the world, where you have a sort of double discount of sort of cheaper currencies and cheaper evaluations. But yes, I think this could be our sort of long hot summer with a bit of volatility.

Speaker 2

This is a ben I've ever heard. Are you in ken.

Speaker 3

I would certainly be holding a little bit of cash ready to buy that dip which I think is coming. And I would certainly be looking at the rest of the world. I mean, I think the rotation narrative remains in place. I think this is worse news for the United States than it is for the rest of the world economically, and I think the rest of the world has buffers that the US doesn't have. The US still has this double premium of an expensive currency and expensive

equity markets, and the rest of the world doesn't. As I say, I wouldn't want to bet too much against corporate America. I'd be looking for opportunities any sell off in tech and healthcare. But I do think, I do think we've taken the Tacho narrative too much at face value. You know, right here, I think there are you know, the Trump puts are still out there, They're just further away. I mean, I think there's maybe a new one you

alluded to earlier of the sort of American stomach. What's going to happen when your coffee or induce your sugar, your beef is all fifty percent more expensive. You know, time will tell and we will find out.

Speaker 2

Ben Leader, thank you so much.

Speaker 1

You're listening to the Bloomberg Surveillance Podcast. Catch us live weekday afternoons from seven to ten am Eastern Listen on Applecarplay and Android Otto with the Bloomberg Business app, or watch us live on YouTube.

Speaker 2

This was scheduled and to be an interview of Joy talking about the House, the Budget Committee and all. Jody Errington is from the Texas that a lot of people, particularly Northerners, don't know we fly into DFW. Maybe we've got a wandering understanding of San Antoni and down to the Mexican border. But the northern Texas of Abilene and Delbert McClinton and Buddy Holly's Lubbock is just not talked about. Mister Errington is of the nineteenth district in the House

of Representatives and with the Budget Committee. Jody Errington, thank you so much for joining bloomber Well.

Speaker 6

What a beautiful introduction. My folks in the food, fuel and fiber capital of the world would be would be very pleased and proud by that introduction.

Speaker 2

It is three hundred and some miles down eighty three south to Kernville. There's people making that drive today. This flood has turned the nation upside down. Give us an update, sir well.

Speaker 6

It's unimaginably heart wrenching for the families who've lost, especially their children overnight. A wall of river that rows almost thirty feet in less than an hour. That area is prone to flash floods. We have a ranch about three miles up the road from Camp Mystic, which is at the epicenter of this, but we've never seen anything like this.

I don't know how you could prepare for it, but we're all praying for that community and those families, and there's still folks missing, and I know the governor's committed to, you know, not ceasing the search and rescue until everybody's found.

Speaker 2

It's Atlanta, States, Rise less Federal. You had a horrific winter storm. The swinter storms, folks in northern Texas are glacial. I mean they're like back to the ice age and the answers in nineteen twenty one, Lollock and Avelene was absolutely leveled and you dialed one eight hundred FEMA to get assistance. Is the FEMA of twenty twenty one the same as the FEMA now?

Speaker 6

Well, I hope it's much improved, but I'm not sure that's the case. I think the President's right to push that down at the state, local level, not necessarily the resources we're taxed on it one way or the other. I just think folks at the local and state level are probably best to handle it.

Speaker 4

So Congressman talked to us about this legislation that is a big success story for the Trumpet administration. I know you had a big hand and it talked to us about what this spending bill of this tax bill. What does it mean for this economy do you think going forward?

Speaker 6

I think it's significant and it couldn't come at a better time. I know there's some uncertainty with the tariff realignment. I think that will work out in a very positive way when we get these new deals and we have reciprocal trade relationships with folks, so I'm supportive of that. In the meantime, we have supercharged the growth that we saw from the first Trump tax cuts by making permanent, for example, business expensing for R and D, capital interest expensing,

the pro growth provisions there. And then just tax relief to working families, not just the marginal rates, but improving the standard deduction and making it permanent. And then of course there are several working working man provisions. Tax on tips, no tax on overtime. Families with children get a supercharge of child deduction.

Speaker 4

How does it impact maybe people in your district, some a rural district, for example, the folks in your district, they here a global walltery here at bloomber we talked tariffs all day every day. Did the people in your district did they think about that or how did they think about some of the economic issues that you're trying to address in your bill and maybe the president's trying to address with tariffs.

Speaker 6

Well, on the bill, it's just more money in their in their pockets, right, that's a good thing for them, and they recognize it.

Speaker 5

On the on the other piece, you got ag and energy dominate. Yeah, I mean it is the.

Speaker 6

Largest oil patch and cattle feeder system and in the world. And so they understand unfair trade, they understand that it's not sustainable, and I think they're all in to support this president getting to that even competitive playing field.

Speaker 2

I'm looking for folks with this. Jody Arrington here from Texas, were thrillies with us in nineteenth congressional district of Northern Texas. You know, I look at you. You slipped by in the last election. You win eighty percent of the vote. I mean, they gotta do better next time. The president took Texas with fifty six percent. I don't know what you know off the top of your head what he took in the nineteenth congressional.

Speaker 5

Lesson me, less you Okay, So we're going to get him up there, okay.

Speaker 2

But the bottom line is, at least they had this for Michael bart today, student loans are going to affect Texas Tech. They're going to affect your Texas Tech. How do you balance the Trump mantra of tear the federal government apart with those eight hundred and forty two kids at Texas Tech. They can't go there this fall. I'm making it up, folks, they can't go there this fall because of the student loan shifts he's proposing.

Speaker 6

Well, I think the fact that we have all of this student aid and not targeted necessarily the people who need it, I think is an inflation area, has an inflation effect on the cost of education. I'm a former vice chancellor at Texas Tech.

Speaker 2

That's my alma mater. And the larger they do with the walk on football players, they give him like a fancy job. What was it like and you walked down? I mean with Patrick Mahams on the field, when you walked.

Speaker 5

Down, I would never have a chance.

Speaker 6

I couldn't even catch the balls that he throws today. But this was under the Spike Dyke's era, where just about anybody in their body you could fog a mirror, could walk on and and in fact, I didn't play football in high school. And when the recruiter asked me when we sat down right before my physical, He said, what did you play in high school?

Speaker 5

I said tennis? And he thought, old man, I want to see this question.

Speaker 2

Cowboys are chiefs, you know what.

Speaker 6

Cowboys over the chiefs. But I'm a college football guy. I'm not really interested. And we're losing that uniqueness in college sports because of Beniel's another conversation. I think we're destroyed.

Speaker 2

Another D one powerhouse, Duke Cosman.

Speaker 4

One of the key topics and key issues for President Trump and in his election was immigration. You come from a state that is boy that is right on the front lines of immigration. How do the folks in your district think about it? I mean a lot of these folks that come over, they pick our agricultural they build our homes, they do all that kind of stuff.

Speaker 5

They bust our tables.

Speaker 4

How do people in your district think about it?

Speaker 6

Well, I think they appreciate the fact that we don't have Americans that would do the jobs that are needed in the fields. As you mentioned in agriculture. Probably the same could be said in the in the oil patch. But I think they first and foremost wanted security and from a return to law and order from the chaos. It's been devastating and I'm just there with law enforcement. I'm telling you, the gangs, the drug activity exponential.

Speaker 5

Over the last four years.

Speaker 6

So in order to have the conversation that we need to have about legal immigration and making sure we have a win win situation with people who want a better life and filling the jobs that we need to produce the food, fuel, and fire, we had to do. We needed a president with the will to do what is being been done by this president in terms of border security, but there's more to be done on the legal side so that we can continue to facilitate the economic.

Speaker 2

Okay, including agriculture, which is a small matter from apling to love it to cut to the chase. Henrietta Tre's beautiful analyst was on earlier and says they're almost hiding the president's langeductedness because Jodie Arrington has to get re elected in November of twenty twenty six. What's your Republican Party in particularly the Texas delegation look like after President Trump?

Is this like a moment and you guys shift back to you know, hating Lyndon Baines Johnson or you know what does the framework look like after Trump.

Speaker 6

I think President Trump's philosophy and focus on America First is here to stay. I think it's here to stay for all the right reasons, and I think it resonates with all the Republican districts, certainly in Texas. I mean, it's a ruby red state, and so putting our ag producers first in trade, putting our families first in allowing them to keep more of their money, putting the safety of our families first.

Speaker 5

Again, We've been at ground zero in.

Speaker 6

This border crisis for several years now, So.

Speaker 5

I don't think it.

Speaker 6

I think it remains the America First agenda into the future, and I think that's a good thing, and I think they will support that.

Speaker 2

Does he understand H two A program and dairy farms.

Speaker 5

I think he does. I think he does.

Speaker 6

In fact, he's the one that led me did that well. In the first Trump administration. You'll recall he actually pushed our party to a deal in fixing H two A.

Speaker 5

It was called H two C. It was a reform, it was a.

Speaker 6

Much improved reform along with giving legal status to Dhaka. He pushed our party outside of our comfort. It failed ultimately because we didn't get a Democrat to support it.

Speaker 2

We continue with Jody Arrington of the nineteenth Congressional Diistic. This is Northern Texas. Paul did an all night or Friday and Saturday. Did you watch all of land Man?

Speaker 7

Oh?

Speaker 5

Yeah, I'm all in. I know everything you know about oil.

Speaker 2

And gas when you see Landman? Is it fiction?

Speaker 3

No?

Speaker 5

I think he's pretty true to form.

Speaker 2

Actually, yeah, for better for worse.

Speaker 4

So it's funny when you think about Texas and energy. Obviously you think about the oil and gas, but you guys also have tons of wind farms and solar and you kind of lead the nation all of those things. So how does the folks out in your district? How did they think about, you know, fossil fuels versus you know, alternative energy? I guess is the term?

Speaker 5

How did they think about that?

Speaker 6

I think most folks are for all the above. I just think it's how you get there. Accelerating R and D for example, where we accelerate the amortization. We make that expensing immediate and permanent in this tax bill, as long.

Speaker 5

As it's technology neutral.

Speaker 6

I don't think they want the government picking winners and losers. I think they see the good that could come of renewable resources in the future. Obviously fossil is finite, but after the natural gas shale revolution, we have an ocean of this great resource, and so we don't want a distortion. We don't want regressive inflationary energy policies. We want it even playing field. But no one's averse to all the above,

including renewable. It's just how aggressive we've been a at accelerating with tax benefits for renewable while b over the last four years being hostile to our bread and butter, which has put a lot of people on the defensive.

Speaker 2

Question, how do you respond in the bill that Paul mentioned that the huge benefit goes to the wealthy, granted the wealthy on a percentage basis or paying a lot of taxes. How the middle class of Lubbock and Abolene fair in this bill.

Speaker 6

I think they believe and have experienced that the value of the tax breaks that we extended from the first Trump administration in seventeen are greater among the lower and middle income folks than the upper upper income, and in fact, the top one percent pay a greater share, and in fact, the top ten percent of the income owners in the country paid seventy percent of all the federal bills.

Speaker 5

Now they pay seventy five percent.

Speaker 2

You're in a Paul mentioned this earlier. You're in a house. You guys are riding tall. Maybe you lose House, Senate president here over the next two four years ago, what's your response to how the Democrats have been so ineffective off of the election. You barely won the House. We witnessed that, you barely won the Senate. Good morning, Vice president advantage, we witnessed. We witnessed that. I mean, are you surprised that the Democrats can't get their act together?

Speaker 5

I am?

Speaker 2

I mean, I'm in the land of Anne Richards. I mean, she was iconic.

Speaker 5

I am. They are still wondering why. I don't know.

Speaker 6

I think they're so used to being against President Trump and making demonizing him that that has become And then you've got the left that has overpowered their party to the point that it's going to be really difficult to break free from their agenda that is disconnected from from mainstream Americans.

Speaker 2

Why are you in New York?

Speaker 6

Well, I'm here to tell the good news, the gospel of prosperity and security and opportunity that is going to come when you get the right policies and set the right conditions. We've done it, and I want people to know that help is on the way.

Speaker 2

If if we do a remote from Abilene, all we're the Lukes's Love Texas.

Speaker 5

This guy knows his Texas. He knows his Texas well. You're well choed anytime.

Speaker 2

Jody, thank you so much for joining us. Today's an nineteenth district the Real Texas at Delbert McClinton and one Buddy Holly from years ago. Jody Erinton, thank you so much.

Speaker 1

This is the Bloomberg Surveillance Podcast. Listen live each weekday starting at seven am Eastern on Applecarplay and Android Auto with the Bloomberg Business App. You can also listen live on Amazon Alexa from our flagship New York station. Just say Alexa play Bloomberg eleven thirty.

Speaker 2

This is going to be a good interview now, it's a critical interview. In fact, it may be our interview of the day. Joining us now from London, Jane Foley joins US head of Foreign Exchange statu to Strategy and tariff theory at Robobank. Jane, Robobank, with all of its centuries of tradition has to have a radar on the tariff dynamics. How is the chure now? The thirty year French bond in price has declined over seven percent since

Donald Trump's inauguration, with a markets seizing in Europe? Is this different than Liberation Day one, say April third?

Speaker 8

Oh yeah, well, good morning Tom, Well, good morning everyone that you know it is. There's a very different feeling. And I think we can really extrapolate from what you were just hearing from your former guest, you know, straight back into the bond market, straight back into to foreign exchange. The market is just not as worried right now as

it was on April the second. Now, you know, in agreement with your your previous guest, if we are in for a shock then on August the FIR with significant tariffs, say thirty twenty five percent tariffs for Europe, well the market is not necessarily priced for that, and that could certainly send you know, significant amount of gloom. Particularly you know, you consider the Eurozone economy. You know what is Germany

facing right now? Well, it's always been facing pretty high energy cast labor market shortages, and then of course you put on top of that at the possibility of tariffs at a time with the exchange rate is is really quite strong. Well, you know that is not a pretty picture, and certainly the market will be worried.

Speaker 2

Fancy excuse me, Jane, I'm thinking I'm talking to Francy Lacuah. I mean they both went to Wimbledon. I'm sorry, Jane, I'm looking at the linkage here between your litmus paper pH in exchange and I got log convexity in the French thirty year bond price down big time. Mister mcclah has gone ooh la la uh Jane, how are they linked? And does it mean dxy back to one hundred Paul gets euro back to one oh five before he goes

to Rome. I mean, wor's the accelerative tendency right now into Trump's second round of tariffs.

Speaker 8

Well again, you know, the market doesn't seem to be that concerned. The market seems to think that what Trump is saying rap right now is a negotiation tactic. So you know, it's looked at what Trump has said, what Trump has pulled back on, you know, since April and decided that the thirty percent tariffs, so he was warning about at the weekend are just a threat and won't necessarily be pushed through. So if they are, if they do stick, how August the first, you know, that's going

to be a massive, great, big shock. Now in terms of you know, the French market particularly, we had over the weekend, even warnings from macran or Macron or promises that they would step up the sense very significantly. Now that of course is in tune with the political sort of win that's been blowing over Europe for some months now, but it's not clear how that would be funded, how that fits into the French budget that we were all so concerned about, you know, just six seven months ago.

So you know that there are lots of question marks over the growth out looks for still Europe. They already were, but if you land, you know, thirty percent tariffs on top of that, these rise more significantly and on top of the budgets in most European countries, with perhaps the exception of Germany, there were still considerable doubts. So these are all things that the market is not pricing for that the US he isn't reflecting right now.

Speaker 2

I agreeative, I agree, Paul. The Euro's not shown at the equity markets. JP Morgan tomorrow. Guess what James Diamond's.

Speaker 5

Going to say, We don't care.

Speaker 2

I'm looking at a chart of the thirty year French piece in its log Convex price down, well, yield up. It's moving, it's moving a vengeance.

Speaker 5

Jane Foley.

Speaker 4

Is it a time to buy the US dollar here?

Speaker 8

Yeah? I think it probably is. That the dollar is the best performing D ten currency in July. It's still performed really very poorly from the year to day. But you know, if you look at what's happened with the SMP in a series of all time highs recently, if you look at TAM premier even you know, on the long end of the treasury market, it's come off those

April highs. So there's a lot of calmers that you know, we've been discussing this month, and yet it's only really in the last week or so that the dollar has begun to, you know, pick up a little bit of steam. And I think with the SMP at full time highs, I think we've got a question whether or not that rotation trade that we saw in the first five months of the year out of US ass whether or not

it's just pausing whether or not it's it's stopped. But there does seem to be a lot more optimism now with respect to the relative resilience of the US economy and with the market and have short US dollars. I think the dollar can recover some ground right here.

Speaker 4

One ten year oh I love, Yeah, I'll take a one ten year old come September. Japanese, yen, Jane. What's the Bank of Japan doing these days?

Speaker 8

Well, that the Bank of Japan, I think, is sitting watching and waiting, and that in that respect not that dissimilar to the Fed. You know, the market is concerned because the market is watching these CPI inflation rates in Japan above three percent, you know, looking fairly firm. But the Bank of Japan is looking at its own measures of underlying inflation saying, yeah, you know what, these are

still quite benign and therefore is taking its time. But you know that there is a cost of living pressure issue in Japan that is you know, dripping through into the politics. It has been quite a while, is she by the prime minister very unpopular? He could be about to resign if the LDP, you know, lose its position, lose that majority in the upper House elections at the weekend. So there's a lot of stuff going on. They would like to have, you know, a friendly trade deal done

with the US administration quite soon. That doesn't seem to be coming.

Speaker 6

You know.

Speaker 8

We three months ago Japan was expected to be one of those first countries, but that does not appear to becoming. The Japanese electorate not in the right frame of mind to see Japan give up too many concessions in its point of view to the US.

Speaker 2

Jane Foley, thank us so much for the Morning Brief with robber Bank on a Monday. Jane Foley had a foreign exchange strategy.

Speaker 1

And this is the Bloomberg Surveillance Podcast. Listen live each weekday starting at seven am Eastern on Apple Corplay and Android Otto with the Bloomberg Business app. You can also wat us live every weekday on YouTube and always on the Bloomberg terminal.

Speaker 2

What Henrietta Trace knows she goes on the political campaigns. When you're invaded partners, you don't go from town to town, you go from diner to diner. And she knows in Manchester you go to the Puritan back Room, which is Greek New England food. They invented the chicken tenders there. Henrietta always has the chicken tenders with a coconut add on. That's what you do when you're from New Orleans, you know, Henriette.

I look at the granular politics of the moment. New Hampshire has been democrat since twenty ten is a general statement. I mean, what does the tensions of papas, of Puritan back room all of New Hampshire was shahen returing, What does it mean about this absolute certitude that Trump could win a third term, how the Republicans could maintain power? How fragile is it on a July Monday.

Speaker 7

Well, first of all, I do love it contenders, so thank you for the opportunity to talk about those.

Speaker 9

But secondarily, the Republican conference.

Speaker 7

Does have some pretty serious headwinds at its back when it looks at the thirty five seats that they're defending on the House side, which Shaqim Jefferies is coming out, you know, sort of guns blazing about him the weekend,

he was even in Louisiana talking about it. And then the sentences where they're trying to shore up runners who can either stay in the race or staunch retirements but members do not want to be there, whether it's Shaheen Susan Collins in neighboring Maine, Tom Tillis in North Carolina, there are a host of members. Joni Ernst is on

the perennial list of will she won't she. The Republican Conference is going to have to spend a lot of money next year to stay in these Senate races that they've been able to hold on to, but that are going to come under serious dress, especially with the One Big Beautiful Bill, which has a seventy one percent disapproval rating amongst independents, and tariffs, so there's a lot of headwinds.

Speaker 4

Speaking of tariff, Henriette, I mean, we're getting close to that August one deadline.

Speaker 5

I'm not really sure.

Speaker 4

What that means. But one thing we're not seeing is we're not seeing a lot of trade deals, are we?

Speaker 5

Why is that?

Speaker 7

No? We have no deals, We have no text of any deals, and even the one that we sort of have is really more of a framework.

Speaker 9

That's the one with the UK. What's happening here and.

Speaker 7

What we are seeing increasingly from the foreign nations that we're trying to negotiate with, whether it's Japan, South Korea, or the EU. Is a litany of issues. First amongst them is the two thirty two tariffs. I can't negotiate a temporary IEPA rate when I have a tariff pending on pharmaceuticals of like two hundred percent, which is what

President Trump discussed in the cabinet room last week. When I have tariffs on automobiles, autmobile parts, copper and all these components that could come on and rise at the

President's discretion, and those are permanent tariffs. So it's not really in your best interest to be negotiating a temporary IEPA rate of you know, let's call it twenty twenty five percent, even though that is highly putitive and well above the original you know, two and a half percent tirefreight that we had going into this administration.

Speaker 9

But the two thirty two is a the lig bit.

Speaker 7

And then you look at Brazil and you see, oh, well, we don't like your political here, so we're going to launch a Section three on one investigation into you over extensibly the digital services tax. But we could tire if

now anything coming in from Brazil. And that's the That's just two of what I listed in my report over the weekend of seven different items that foreign nations are considering when they address this administration and negotiate these trade deals that are obviously not forthcoming.

Speaker 2

Paul, did you read Hendria this report over the weekend.

Speaker 4

I am reading it right now. I just called out to Lease and metized that this is unbelievable.

Speaker 5

Every week she packs it.

Speaker 4

With unbelievable detail.

Speaker 5

It's crazy.

Speaker 2

It's just so conjunctuous, it's unbelievable.

Speaker 4

So, Henriette, if I'm a country and I don't do a trade deal, okay, tariffs are going to go on. But if I'm the president, I don't think tariffs are really polling that well with Americans. So what is the administration.

Speaker 5

To do here?

Speaker 7

Yeah, the the tariffs are really a problem for the gene Janes of the world, for the members that are up next year.

Speaker 9

As Tom points out, Trump is not up again. He doesn't have to run ever again.

Speaker 7

The third term stop is really just to stave off disappearance of being a lame duck. But the reality is that the Republicans in the House and the Senate are the ones who have to run, and they're going to be in a situation where the American public. Eighty seven percent of Americans are concerned about higher.

Speaker 9

Prices somewhat or very much. That's a crazy number.

Speaker 7

So they're preposed, whether the tariffs are hitting or not, to be flipped out about tariffs.

Speaker 2

The Street's sort of saying, I'm going to voice this for Global Wall Street. MS trays Besson is once again going to have to go in and set on the couch and say, mister president, back off from liberation two. Is that gonna happen?

Speaker 7

I mean, Scott Besson just said in what Aspen last week, you'll mess around and find out, except with different words. You know, I don't know how comfortable that couch is going to be. I think that the administrator talks about generating three hundred million dollars in tariff revenue and we're at one hundred now, so that math means more tires.

Speaker 2

Henrietta, we can't wait for the New Hampshire primary. Michael Barr will lead our entourage to the Puritan back room for the chicken tenders. Parmesant, Oh nice, it's there, yep, good morning. Chris Pappus in the Papist family, decades of dedication seriously to Manchester New Hampshire and their wonderful business up there. I'mrinna Trace. Thank you so much.

Speaker 1

This is the Bloomberg Surveillance Podcast. Listen live each weekday starting at seven am Eastern on Apple Corplay and Android Auto with the Bloomberg Business app. You can also listen live on Amazon Alexa from our flagship New York station, Just say Alexa Play Bloomberg eleven thirty.

Speaker 2

Back from Chicago, Lisa Matteo. Do you start with the Chicago Tribune?

Speaker 5

I do not know.

Speaker 10

I should have looked into it there for the.

Speaker 2

Time article on Deep Dish pizza.

Speaker 10

No, but it was fantastic. I am starting with a Wall Street Journal. This is the look into the super fake luxury handbags. Okay, we're not talking regular fake. This is super fake fake. Yes, these are mean. They go beyond you know, you think fake. Right, you pick them up on the streets, Paul, you've talked about it, right, and you go where in Chinatown get something. But the counterfeiters are making them look as good as the real thing.

And the thing is they're not cheap. You're going to pay between five hundred and five thousand dollars for these super fake bags. People get them on WhatsApp, telegram, they come straight to your door in like a branded box. They're paying influencers to promote them. So now the younger.

Speaker 2

Audience in Chinatown on a curve.

Speaker 5

This is beyond.

Speaker 10

This is a big money deal. Yeah, they're saying it's hurting the economics of the luxury brand and.

Speaker 5

Super fu See.

Speaker 10

I don't know if I can justify paying over five hundred dollars for a fake.

Speaker 9

Bag that we're still talking.

Speaker 2

Yesterday and there was chaos and I think it was fifty fourth Street and it was the Chelsea lads getting on buses. Yeah, hundreds and hundreds of people. Missus Kean went mental. Wow, she saw a Minie Kelly on them getting back next.

Speaker 10

Okay, so this is for moms and dads who are getting ready to send their kids to college. Right, that's my daughter getting ready. A change is coming into how much you can borrow for college and grad school two from the federal government. So this is starting July first, twenty twenty six, parents will be able to borrow only twenty thousand dollars per year or sixty five thousand and four, you know, a grand total from that Parent Plus program.

And then you get to the grad students, right, so they'll have just over a twenty thousand dollars annual cap on those federal loans, one hundred thousand total. And even you look into medical school, law school, they have a cap of fifty thousand per year and then two hundred thousand the total limit. So the question is where do you go.

Speaker 2

Exactly, I mean all of us are living it. We know all of our people nationwide it on YouTube, Paul are living in I mean, they're just the gap here is these teenc ween see numbers versus what it actually cost to put a chairub one years through school.

Speaker 4

I don't this is a huge issue, But I don't know when people are gonna really rebel on this whole thing. It's just the economics of higher education.

Speaker 2

I believe the admonistration wants to force the colleges to lower the cost, which is kind of sounds great. The gap between the numbers you just gave, it's huge and the reality is just genuine.

Speaker 10

And then where so where do you go? You know, go to these you know, private student loan lenders are that what interest rates are they going to charge? And what does that mean for families? So that's a big us. So one more this was in screen Time. He put together look as Shaw he put to get us some lessons from the first half of the year, and he focused on Netflix. They report, you know, earnings later this week.

But so Nielsen said, Netflix, Amazon, Apple, Right, they're the account for the five most watched streaming shows so far. But he says, what's happening is that Netflix is starting to lose its share of streaming because as you have companies like you know, Amazon, Apple, Hbo, Max, Hulu, Paramount, like there's more and more and more, and they all have shows in the top ten so far this year, their share the top shows is slipping, but it's still more than any other service combined. I mean, you have

to look at it kind of that way too. But he said, one thing to keep an eye on are these free advertising supported services like YouTube, the Roku channel to be they're stealing those viewers from broadcasting cable, so that can give some competition to can't say.

Speaker 2

Enough about screen Time, folks. It's hugely entertaining. It's got music in there and everything. He's super informative too. Yeah, and the movies were still the Paul screening here, Yes, Lisa.

Speaker 1

Tiff This is the Bloomberg Surveillance Podcast, available on Apple, Spotify, and anywhere else you get your podcasts. Listen live each weekday, seven to ten am Easter and on Bloomberg dot Com, the iHeartRadio app, tune In, and the Bloomberg Business app. You can also watch us live every weekday on YouTube and oh ways, on the Bloomberg terminal

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