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This is the Bloomberg Surveillance Podcast. I'm Tom Keene along with Paul Sweeney. Join us each day for insight from the best in economics, finance, investment, and international relations. You can also watch the show live on YouTube. Visit the Bloomberg Podcast channel on YouTube to see the show weekday mornings from seven to ten am Eastern from our global headquarters in New York City. Subscribe to the podcast on Apple, Spotify, or anywhere else you listen, and always I'm Bloomberg Radio,
the Bloomberg Terminal, and the Bloomberg Business App. We welcome all of you across America and around the world, and particularly all of you listening in Indian now to without question, our Bloomberg Conversation of the day on the historic moment for the Indian people. Rugg Rojin is at Boot School. He's O School. His financial book on the Crisis of seven eight won every award fault Lines. He is one of our great financial professors and of course a former
head of a Central Bank of India. Far more importantly is always Rogin out front. He has a book he is delivering Breaking the Mold on his India. It will be a definitive two hundred and seventy pages. Look for that from Princeton University Press. Shortly, Ragu, thank you so much for sending me the PDA for the book. I'm going to cut to the Chase Professor the final sentence
of your book. They cannot have any more excuses. What are the excuses Modi has now and what does he need to move India to a new prosperity.
Well, we have an election. The results have been coming out and I think it's a splendid result because it tells the government it needs to change course. The old course was unviable and we can talk about that. Of course, markets seem to be disappointed. We can talk about that
also why markets are reacting negatively. But I think what is happening today is really, in the long run, really good for India because it forces India to choose a different course from the one it has been on, a course which has led to much wider unemployment and distress than needed in the country.
Is this an election result that you see will bring the technocratic and elite South together with a more emotional and historic North. Does it bring the polarity of India together or do we have a more separate India in twenty twenty six.
No, it's it's actually a win for democracy, and that's good for India because what democracy does is it allows the different paths to essentially express themselves and to negotiate.
The problem earlier was India was trending towards a more autocratic country, a country with one leader who was who are a larger than like image, and that unfortunately meant that the JP leadership wasn't listening, wasn't listening to the economic news on the ground that people were actually suffering hardship, wasn't listening to the broader sense that you know, the weaponization of various instruments of the government to put you know,
opposition party leaders in jail was simply not jelling and it would have taken India down a course which was ruinous in the longer run, maybe in the short run benefiti of the big, big business groups. And that's why the market is reacting adversely.
But I think this is good Rock and Rogen with us with Musco Chicago. We welcome all of you on YouTube worldwide and particularly in South Asia. My colleague Damien Sassar, Professor Rogin, Professor Rajen.
You have mentioned the concept of an authoritarian democracy and how India is moving into that sort of bucket. Talk to us a little bit about what this election means for India and what it means for Numerendro Modi and some of his policies on labor and whatnot.
So I think the key number to look at in this election is the bgp's own seats in Parliament. They almost surely will fall short of a majority, which means that they have to actually take the support of other parties convince them to stay on board, which means they have to be much more sensitive to a broad based set of policies. Now, the PGP has done some very good things during its stint in power. For example, it has improved the investment in infrastructure and you can see
Rhodes airports highways becoming much better in India. That's good. However, what it has not articulated is a sensible policy for broad based employment, and that almost surely requires policies on human capital, how to skill up the workforce, how to bring you know, industry together with universities and so on to get people jobs. So the frustration with a BJP has been mass unemployment, which is, you know, in an
authority regime. They simply don't even acknowledge the fact that unemployment has been growing and is especially amongst the youth. So what this election has done is essentially given them a cold shower of reality that people are not happy with your policies and that will force, you know, if the BJP does come back to power after negotiating with allies, it will force policies which are broader, more inclusive, and more sensitive to the needs of the people. That's a good thing.
This morning an extended interview with Rock and Roger of the Buschool Chicago for those joining in America. A shock a result or beginning of results, I should say, in a Delhi election assumed to be dominant for mister Mody and it was decidedly less so my colleague Damian Sassar.
Professor Roger, and I want to take you back to your former role as director of research at the IMF. You're familiar with workers' remittances, the role they play in India, I mean the role they play globally. Eight hundred and sixty million of remittances in twenty twenty three, India is fifteen percent of that. Talk to us about what this election means for the diaspora outside of India about the flows of capital into India. Is it's going to change things at all?
Well, I think it's It can actually be good news both from the perspective. Remittance is will continue regardless of who's in part. This is more you know, a lot of money coming from the Middle East, some from the United States and Europe for people to their families, and that will continue that there's no reason why that would be disrupted. What is interesting, however, is foreign direct investment has been slowing into India over the last couple of years.
Some people argue that one of the reasons it has been slowing is that, you know, people are worried about arbitrary government policy, to the extent that a more democratic dispensation at the center creates more stability about government policies, especially it limits the weaponization of the tax authorities, of
the investigative authorities. Business actually will feel more comfortable, I hope, and I think it is quite possible that private investment, which has also be on the down as well as foreign direct investment, could pick up slowly as it sees policies emerge which are more comforting.
Professor, within your new book, breaking the Mold, And I guess the answer is for every central bank. The raging vogue now is to pull climate change into some form of monetary policy mandate from whatever the nation is. Climate change is reality in India New Deli today, I believe the high of one hundred and eleven, one hundred and fourteen? Fair nit, who's counting, Professor? What does India do and what does Modi do to immediately break the mold on a climate change out of control?
Well, this is precisely what the book is about. Can India afford to become another China? Does the world have room for another China? Becoming a manufacturing giant? And that was the direction the more the government was trying to go in offering massive subsidies to capital intensive manufacturing and it you know the reality is that China's already there. There is very little place for another manufacturing giant, especially given the protectionism that's right in the world. But India
has a card up its leave. It actually is doing far better in services exports, which is much greener, much more sustainable and You're seeing a huge growth in skilled services exported to the rest of them, whether it's telemedicine, consulting, chip design, lots of new areas opening up. India accounts of five percent of global trade there. That's good.
How do you unify a nation with over twenty languages? We in the United States are in a panic. I mean, there's two languages in Chicago, the Cubs in a white Sox. That's a different story. But ragu, how do you unify towards a new India around twenty disparate languages?
Tom, It's more than that. It's twenty official languages, which means they have enough people speaking it, but there are six hundred additional dialects and languages. It's a vast complicated country. And the only way it's unified is through democracy, because democracy allows each each community a voice. You talked about twenty twenty six in in India, that's when the parliamentary seats get reapportioned. When there will be a move to have new seats in parliament for the more populous areas.
That has to be done by consensus, and what I'm so glad about is that it will be done by consensus. Because democracy has re established itself in India and they will have to negotiate how that reapportionment helps. So India is more politically stable as a result of this election, is also going to be a greater friend for the democracies of the world.
Yeah, Damien, I know one of your focuses is on India Russia, and of course it goes back to Neyhror's visit in nineteen fifty five to Russia and all the responses through the sixties of James John Kenneth Galbray think Kennedy trying to reaffirm an American presence from a distance.
That's absolutely right. And Professor Rajan, I'd really like to hear your opinion on the relationship between India and Russia. Obviously, they've been a big consumer of Russian barrels of Russian oil, and if you look at the tenure and the correlation between the Indian tenure and Brent crude, it is pretty strong. It has been since two thousand, So talk to us a little bit about that relationship India and Russia.
Well, India sort of tilted towards Russia when the US tilted away from India. India and the United States were quite friendly in the sixties, but then you know, as the Bangladesh situation developed, the US tilted away from India, and that's when Russia moved towards India. There was a strong friendship through the sixties, seventies and eighties. India buys a lot of military hardware from Russia, so it has
been attended that has changed. India increasingly is buying from the West, you know, from France, from the United States, and that relationship is strengthening. So this is a work in process. India understands increasingly Russia is going to be dependent on China, which is unfortunately. At this point the relationship between India and China is one antagonist.
Soago, I've got time for one more question. I have to interrupt and be rude. If you are called upon by mister Mody, will you serve the Indian people within his new government.
Well, I think that's an unlikely prospect. You know, my sort of inclination is whenever there's a government I can agree with, I'm happy to work with them. I've always been open with advice. Let's see what happens.
Rogert, thank you so much. We're really anticipating breaking the mole two hundred and seventy pages from Princeton University pres look for that from Professor Rogin the Bout School, Chicago. It is legendary at the University of Virginia. The largest birthday party ever in the history of the University of Virginia was on the lawn for Kate Moore. It was only eight nine, ten years ago. Joining us now this morning, Kate Moore from black Rock and our global allocation team.
Kate Moore, Happy birthday to you.
Oh thanks Tom. I must say it's great to be twenty nine again.
We're we're all work as SaaS. The only one getting away to the Kate Moore's Damien Sassa is cottenshiseled and doing thirty six holes on the golf course. Kate Moore, I want you to measure the level of xuberance right now. I see a lot of fancy technical studies that say we're just not as exuberant is nineteen ninety nine. Do you buy it?
Yeah?
I don't see a huge amount of exuberance. Actually, let's just talk about exuberance. Over the course of twenty twenty four, right, we had gotten to a pretty excited place by the end of March. Obviously, stocks were putting up big gains. At people who had been skeptics around the resilience of you as economy had to throw in that towel. It seemed like everyone was afraid of being underweight or under risked.
And I think a lot of that has faded. You know, we had a tougher April, and now we've had a lot of cross currents as companies have reported earnings, you know, some good news and some just okay news, and lots of unexpected sort of changes in the macro environment and in the policy rate expectations. So I would say we're just in a kind of a lukewarm but not negative, but a lukewarm state at the moment.
Happy birthday, Kate, and I agree with you. Things are far more asymmetric. I mean they're not as asymmetric, the far more two sided. Given the movie we've seen since.
April, you're saying there's an asymmetry between thirty nine and twenty nine.
No asymmetry there whatsoever. So miss Moore King dollars flexing its muscles yet again, right, I mean, let's be real here. I mean, this is not a US exceptionalism move. This is a risk off move. Every single currency in G ten and EM with the exception of the pound, is now down versus the dollar to date. Talk to us about king dollar in the current environment.
Yeah, we've had a modest overweight to the dollar throughout the course of this year. Not a huge bet, but just kind of an expectation that US economy was going to be stronger than some of our big trading partners
and therefore kind of justified. But I have to say, I think there is a little bit of a risk off element to it, as you suggest, and there is also an understanding that the US economy is very resilient and quite a lot of them both consumer although that's you know people that did debate that, but the consumer data and the corporate data is still really strong. So you know, I'm not a great currency forecaster, but I wouldn't bet against the dollar at least in the next few months.
Just in folks, I really want to bring this to your attention. After Damien talks to Kate More of Blackrock, we're thrilled to go to Delhi and we'll speak to Derek Wallbank of Bloomberg News on the stunning election. Damien.
Well, let's stay here, Kate. Let's stay with the US. Let's stay with US equities, right. I mean, we've had some pretty big moves in Telco and it year to date. Do we lean into that. I mean, if we had this risk off move off, things sort of settling in here, I mean, is it you know, is this a buying opportunity?
Yeah, Damien. One of the things I will say is I love that the leadership this year is really being driven by fundamentals. I mean, I know there are skeptics out there saying these this run can't continue. We know the companies that are performing the best are those that are putting up earnings during their earnings reporting, have affirmed guidance and oftentimes raised guidance and set higher expectations. These are companies on a really solid path, in some cases,
on a secular path, separate from the business cycle. We're not in a position where people are just kind of hyping up or speculating on what may happen in the future. This technology is here today. These companies are delivering revenues and they're printing cash. So because of that, I would not fade the leadership of these big cap tech anytime soon.
Yeah, But Kate, I mean value and quality are both down as a strategy here to date, right, I mean, I think it's been the low vol factor. I mean, I'm not going to get into all that because everybody calculates these industries a different way. But equity, I mean, that's a four percent year today, and I mean it seems to be there, seem to be you know, some technicals that work here now.
Yeah, there are a lot of technicals. And actually we pay very close attention to positioning and sentiment to try and time our entry and exit into different positions. And we've been using options pretty aggressively. Given the ball market, you know, we've been given a lot of opportunities to buy very cheap fall and to sell all when you know it was a good opportunity quickly, Kate, we're.
Out of time. But what's the sentiment did you see among fancy people like at hedge funds on big tech? Is there a big tech bet or have they pulled away?
I think they're constructive for the most part. Of course, it's going to depend on this segment. We haven't seen huge shorting of the big names. In fact, no one wants to really stand in front of that train. Whether you're a mutual fund investor, a retail investor, or a hedge fund investor. I said, as long as these companies continue to have the fundamentals, Tom, I think it's going to be an important part of your portfolio for the balance of twenty twenty four.
Twenty nine. Candles Kate more Heavy Birthday, Thank thank you so much for joining us. Folks. We have Julie Norman on just because of time in this vamp that we just did in Stanley Cup hockey. I'm not going to harass her about Baltimore Orioles best team in baseball, but seriously, this is the courage of Julie Norman of the University of College London. She is, without question, one of the experts in the world on a difficult word, terrorism and she has taken on the challenge of a book on
the political history of Gaza. Professor Norman honor to have you with us this morning. What is the political future of Gaza?
Oh gosh, Tom, I think that's the question that is on everyone's mind right now, and it's certainly the one that I think Biden is really trying to push Netnahu on these days. You know, Biden put out this ceasefire plan ostensibly approved by Israel, but part of that was to get the ceasefire, and part of it was just to get Netanyahu's starting to articulate what a day after might look like in Gaza.
Well, okay, but importantly everybody's running for election and posturing for their domestic politics. Is the American relationship with Israel changed? Whatever the future is oft in Yahoo or Prime Minister Sasa or whatever it is, is the future changed in American Israeli relations?
You know, I think there's two ways to answer that. One is governmental relations with Israel. And I would say, at that level, whether it's president, whether it's Congress, we still see very strong support for Israel pretty much across
the board. Obviously some exceptions within Democratic Party representatives. I think where we're seeing the shift those with public opinion, obviously with young voters, young citizens in particular, and really you know, on the more progressive wing, with the Democratic Party more broadly now split essentially fifty to fifty on leaning more sympathetic towards Palestinians and more sympathetic towards Israel.
So I do think that trend is going to continue, and it's one that lawmakers will have to grapple with is you know, incoming years a bit more than they have in the past.
Doctor Norman, I'm curious to hear your thoughts of what's going on south the border. We had an election in Mexico, Claudie Shinbaum, Jewish former mayor for the city for Mexico City, at thirty percentage point. When is president, does that change Mexico's relationship with Israel at all?
Yeah, it'll be interesting to see. You know, obviously very notable that she is not only the first woman, but the first Jewish person to hold that office. But she has made statements before that you know, she doesn't agree with Zionism. I think she does identify in fact as like an anti Zionist. So she seems to be, at least up until this point, upholding what Mexico stance has been as being very pro Palestine, you know, showing their
showing their dissatisfaction with Israeli policies. But again, she's been towing the line of her predecessor up until this point, and I think we're not really sure what many of her policies are going to be in general simply because she's been simply a kind of walking the party line, and once she's in office, we might see some changes.
I'm getting that same feeling, doctor, I mean, just the uncertainty surrounding what her appointment means as president. But you know, let's shift gears. Let's talk about Ukraine. Let's talk about the I'MA funding that they received last week. I mean, that's good news, but there's another sort of summ and other fundraiser books with Biden talk to us about US Ukrainian relations. I mean, what do we expect there?
Yeah, So, you know, I think it's a tough spot for Biden right now. Obviously he got through the big aid package, you know, two months ago. That was a very long time coming. I think that's going to be the last big infusion of military aid at least that we see going to the going to Ukraine anytime soon. And as the war goes on, I think Biden's getting to a point of just as is the what is the endgame here? What is all this going towards? And I think those conversations are starting to happen more.
Professor Norman, do your claimed expertise and I'm not saying this to be Snyder snarky. I think it's a serious question. Is Hamas defeated or trending for defeated? How do you gauge that? How do you measure that?
Yeah, so this has obviously been one of Israel's main objectives, and the US right now is assessing that Hamas has been sufficiently depleted in the sense that they couldn't carry out a massive military attack, they couldn't govern effectively, that sort of thing. At this point, I would just say, though Hamas is so many different actors all at once. They're a military operation, they are a political party, they're a social movement, and there's a lot of just everyday
people who identify as Hamas supporters. So I don't think the movement itself is close to being wiped out. And honestly, I feel like many that after the guys of war, they will probably be able to recruit quite effectively, or a group very similar to them will likely be able to recruit very effectively.
And doctor Norman talks to us a little, just a bit just about I mean, look, I can't believe I'm saying this.
Russia.
Russian relationships with the West with the US specifically, I mean, talk to us a little bit about, you know, what comes next for the country, what comes next for its relationships with the former Soviet states. I mean, I'm thinking Armenia, I'm thinking Azerbaijan, I'm thinking you know, I'm thinking quite frankly, you know, Luzbekistan and a lot of the sort of step out of China. You talk to us a little bit about what's going on there.
Yeah, sure, so, I would say, you know, obviously, I don't think things will change with the US, at least within these next six months, at least during the Biden presidency and with the Ukraine War, But with much of the rest of the world, including former Soviet estates, including much of the global South, you know, they have viewed this war very differently than the US. They have continued, you know, trading with Russia, taking advantage of cheaper prices
and really trying to kind of straddle both lines. So globally, I feel like Russia is actually still doing fine with man with many states, and they will probably continue on that trajectory as as anti Western sentiment increases.
Unfortunately, professor, we've got forty five seconds left since you bleed Baltimore Orioles Orange with the new ownership. Should the Orioles be aggressive at the trade deadline?
Oh, I mean I would just say I put all my trust in David Rubinstein, like whatever he thinks is best, I will like trust. He's brought a lot of graphics to Baltimore and we're all just super excited.
Nailed it. Professor Normany just knows how to get back on the show. Julie Norman, thank you so much and really anticipated as our most serious history about the political history of GAZAOK for that. We'll have a substantial set of economic data at ten o'clock and our economic indicators always brought to you by Commonwealth, supporting more than two thousand independent financial advisors with the solutions they need to grow a thriving business. Commonwealth go where you Grow. Visitcommonwealth
dot com to learn more. We thank Commonwealth for their real commitment to what we're doing here as well joining us for a peaceful conversation that the Damien the day is.
The interview of the day.
Oh, I don't know about the interview of the day, but let's get back to sanity and what the markets are doing. Lindsay Roster with US multisector Investing Goldman Sechs Asset Management. Which category of multisector is your most vibrant study right now?
The most vibrant study would be structured product. What's interesting about it is it isn't a market that you can just buy it all. This is a market that you absolutely have to be an active manager in billin colos and even in commercial mortgage pack security.
For the mere mortals out there, identify what structured product is. It sounds like I'm buying skyscrapers that are bankrupt? What structured product?
Hopefully not skyscrapers that are bankrupt, although there was actually a you could say a default in office based in New York recently. But really, what structured product is is a bucket of assets and there is a structured overlaid that allows you to have trunching, so splitting off the stuff exactly, and different levels of it have different protection
levels or what they call fancy jargon credit enhancement. So if you're the highest part of the capital structure, you're going to have the most credit enhancement that comes typically with less threads. Hey I'm a Philly's girl, but I'll let you go with the analogy.
That's kind the white sox the lowest true. How would you respond to the argument.
I mean, we all know about the one point seven trillion dollar private credit market, and we know about you know, the marketing that goes around that that these are. You know, they have tighter covenants, they're safer that you talk to us about the recoveries on first been loans, I'm hearing that recoveries on a lot of that debt are not going to be as high as what you might otherwise find in the public markets.
Yeah, so it it is really going to be collateral specific. But it goes back to again where I started with active management. You want to make manager who is really thinking about what they're investing in, and so you can look at broad numbers like what are recovery rates? Are they going to be lower? I would say, find your manager. Find your manager who's going to do the right job.
And again, the big thing that's different between public credit and private credit is that private credit is less liquid and what I mean by that your ability to get your money every single day less. So in the public markets we have daily liquidity. With that you get a premium. By the way, though, in the private market too compensate you for.
That, Lindsay, I want to channel one of your former colleagues a chapter the name of Sam Finkelstein now at Citadel I believe, a senior PM at Citdeley joined Griffin Dunn down in Miami, a former emerging market.
Fly A manager.
Talk to us about the role of emerging markets in a multi asset diversified portfolio.
Yes, so you want to be able to look across the globe into all asset classes for opportunity. As you're both aware, it is a great opportunity set right now. From a yield perspective, we've got yields that we haven't seen. There's income and fixed income. We've heard that story. But you really want to go out there and find the right place to get risk adjusted returns because spreads are really tight. Emerging markets have been definitely an outperformer year
to date. What's really driven that is that the double B and single B market has been open for financing, which is new. But we think about emerging markets as a piece of the puzzle, and there is a lot of high risk, a lot of election risk. I mean, certainly we've got election risk in the US. We don't have to get into that, but their election risk in
emerging markets as well. We are finding more opportunity actually in the US right now when our portfolios are tilted more to the US in a multisector fruit.
So, Linda, I'd love to ask you about the US elections, but we only have you for a limited amount of time and I need to channel Clive Asna's here your g sam factor in disease. We talk about Carrie, we talk about value quality. What factors do you believe as an investor you should be leaning into in the current environment.
Yeah, it would be idiosyncratic factors. You want to do the right work here. If you think shout.
Out there from what Gold say? Now you know it's idiot idiosyncratic carriage. An idiosyncratic factor is the kids are out of school and it's killing my bank account. Go what do you got tom?
It means you got to do the homework right. You got to figure out is this a company that's going to pay you back? And that's really the point with bonds? Are you going to get there?
But I'm kidding, but Damien as a really important question, folks. Does the factor shift and adjust and the waiting shift I want to go back to one of your observations, which was what's called the money Tower, the Michell New York tower on Broadway at fifty five and sixty. Now, you know, we get the Pinatis Blackstone. They paid a thousand of square foot or whatever. Ten years ago it was a different mood and we see all these haircuts
going on. Now, come on, that's got to be an opportunity for you or Goldman Sachs advising big foreign money. When does the big foreign money show up to buying train wrecks like the money Tower. I'm broad seventeen forty Broadway.
When when they can make money on the investment?
Is that now?
Well, it depends based on the forward. When you think about who are the tenants, what's the leasing opportunities? Just like you think about a normal corporate company, you know, what's what's the forward, What's what's their growth opportunity? Is this an exciting place to be? What's the quality of the space that you're dealing with. If we think that it makes sense and we think that the price is right, then we can advise and help. But I think the big thing right now is that there are a lot
of assets trading at the wrong price. And so if you just passively buy the world right now, you're you're going to get burned. You need to have an active manager to help you.
Source within the fancy talk world. Damiens Hour and Lindsey Rossner, the answer is you're waiting for price rationalization to occur.
That's right back to spreads being really tight. We're waiting for the right time to get involved. That doesn't mean we have no risk on our in our portfolios.
You got to keep this and you gotta keep there.
There is some Carrie. I think. What's also really interesting are there real val opportunities. And I'm going to give you one that's not necessarily in my bond portfolio. But right now you can go to France and see Taylor Swift for two hundred dollars. The prices start in the US two thousand plus global market. Vote with your feet, find the opportunity Taylor Swift in Paris. You know what my sister did, and I'm not going to blame her for not taking me. We have a phenomenal relationship because
you went with a bunch of friends. They had a great time.
Now we're thinking about going on Argentina.
So let's go say that we got Mohamedelarian.
You may have seen Taylor Swift, Mohammed ray.
If Riley from Saint Louis went and Lindsay's sister went. Wasn't an Was everybody in the audience American in Paris?
There were there were there were many many Americans there.
Yes, email it on YouTube live chat. Please did you go see Taylor in Paris and save us from one mark Lindsay.
You know you mentioned some of these less liquid segments of the fixing market is offering value, and you know, when I think of those areas of the market, and obviously for you guys at g SAM, you know these markets, you know who holds the bonds, you know, but I get a little bit fearful because for me, this the
whole private credit. You know, these little clubs, these little syndicates, and then you hear what's going on with Vista, and they're kind of, you know, fighting with each other because again, everybody knows who holds the bonds, and you can kind of show preference for one club at the expense of another. So talk to us about those dynamics and how that changes the playing field for you as an investor.
Yeah, the dynamics are the same ones that have always been a portfolio construction. It's all about sizing and it's about understanding your liquidity profile. And while yes, private credit has grown, this concept of figuring that out and how to get out on the right spot on the efficient frontier isn't anything new.
Thank you for joining thanke you for having to hold you conversations. Multisector investing barely describes. It's the nuances of piecing together where we are right now, particularly within commercial real estate. This is a Bloombergs Surveillance podcast, bringing you the best in economics, finance, investment, and international relations. You
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