Growing Policy Uncertainty Leads to Market Unease - podcast episode cover

Growing Policy Uncertainty Leads to Market Unease

Mar 10, 202538 min
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Episode description

Watch Tom and Paul LIVE every day on YouTube: http://bit.ly/3vTiACF.
Bloomberg Surveillance hosted by Tom Keene & Paul SweeneyMarch 10th, 2025
Featuring:
1) Lindsey Piegza, Chief Economist at Stifel, reacts to Friday's jobs figures, previews CPI, and talks about how tariffs could affect US growth. President Donald Trump’s protectionist policies and cuts to the federal workforce have dented confidence in US economic outperformance. Trump said at the weekend the US economy faces “a period of transition,” while Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent earlier warned of disruption to growth.
2) Henrietta Treyz, co-founder at Veda Partners, joins to talk about a potential government shutdown and more tariff talk on deck from President Trump. House Republicans announced a spending bill to keep government agencies open through September 30, which may lead to a confrontation with Democrats and potentially a government shutdown. The bill's passage is uncertain, with some Republicans and Democrats expressing concerns about various aspects of the bill.
3) Derek DeCloet, Managing Editor with Bloomberg News, on Mark Carney succeeding Justin Trudeau and the latest on US-Canada relations. Carney has won the race to become Canada's next prime minister, taking over from Justin Trudeau, amidst economic uncertainty due to US President Donald Trump's trade policies. Carney, a former central banker, has pledged to protect Canada's economy and sovereignty, promising to keep retaliatory tariffs on US goods until the US shows respect and makes credible commitments to free and fair trade.
4) Kristen Bitterly, Head: Wealth at Work at Citi, discusses why it's important for investors to remain constructive at this time. It comes as strategists across several firms including Morgan Stanley, JPMorgan, and RBC have also tempered their bullish S&P calls for 2025.
5) Lisa Mateo joins with the latest headlines in newspapers across the US, including older Americans turning to Blue Collar jobs, big Costco TVs, and high prices for a French classic.

See omnystudio.com/listener for privacy information.

Transcript

Speaker 1

Bloomberg Audio Studios, podcasts, radio news. This is the Bloomberg Surveillance Podcast. Catch us live weekdays at seven am Eastern on Apple CarPlay or Android Auto with the Bloomberg Business App. Listen on demand wherever you get your podcasts, or watch us live on YouTube.

Speaker 2

Now with Steve Chicago. Lindsay Pigs joins us. Lindsay, how do you define recession if it is an NBER, what's a Piegsa recession look like?

Speaker 3

Well, I think we're looking for two consecutive quarters of negative growth. But frankly, when we get to a non accelerating economy, it was growth falling anywhere near less than one percent, you're kind of flitting hairs at that point, thank you. The economy would clearly be struggling with inflation still very elevated.

Speaker 2

At this point, you nailed the elevation. How do you feel about economic growth? Can you even look out three months, nine months, a year and a half, given everything hinged on policy?

Speaker 3

Well, it is very difficult at this point. When we look at in hindsight, we see that the footing for the US economy is still very solid, consumer spending, businesses still investing, but there's an incredible amount of uncertainty and volatility coming down the pipeline, which could very easily shake away that solid putting that we've seen in the economy for quite some time now.

Speaker 4

So, Lindsay, is stagflation a concern?

Speaker 3

Actually, staglation is the biggest concern. I don't think a recession or an outright decline is really my primary focus. But a period of stagflation, as the FED lack of commitment to rating in price pressures could eventually choke off the upside potential for the US economy, leaving us again we're splitting hair is whether or not we fall into

negative territory. The risk is that we could grow slow from this two percent take to one percent to less than one percent, with nominal price pressures still up at three ish percent. Of slow growth, elevated prices the very definition of sagsulation.

Speaker 4

So what are you seeing in the labor market here today, lindsay, because that's kind of the front lines for how people are feeling about the economy.

Speaker 3

Well, the labor market is still somewhat solid, but showing signs of volatility and uncertainty. Now, most of the weakness that we have seen has been the result of treasic weather events, the fires in California, unfavorable weather scenarios, and

the mid Atlantic and the East Coast. But there was also a sizeable decline in services hiring as of late, which could in part reflect the fact that the federal government has made moves to shrink the size of government, reduce federal employees, several government contracts, and so this could be the tip of the iceberg in terms of that downward pressure on the labor market as a result of these new initiatives.

Speaker 2

I mean, Lindsay pigs with us with STIFA for a lengthy conversation here this morning. She was fabulous last year in gaming out a feed that would stay higher on their rate because of Inflation's Paul mentioned stagflation really front and center. What do you observe from the distance of

the Midwest. I mean when we say slow down or and I totally take your point, Lindsay, on one percent is a recession for two thirds of America, three quarters, whatever, But is it a good slowdown or a service sector slowdown?

Speaker 3

It would be a servant sector slow down, which has really been the engine of the economy at this point. So I do think that if we saw that precipitous decline in activity broad based activity. It would primarily be a reflection of that pullback in services, both on the hiring side but also the expenditure side. And we've already seen consumers exhibit this rising level of concern amid a very uncertain outlook, pulling back on what they're purchasing over

the course of the past two months. So really setting us up for a potential self inflicted, if you will, downturn in terms of consumer activity being sidelined as a result of this tremendous amount of uncertainty coming from fiscal policy.

Speaker 4

So lindsay, have you guys changed your GDP forecast here recently?

Speaker 3

We haven't necessarily changed our forecast, but we have added to the downside risks to our forecast. It's still too soon to say exactly what the impact is going to be of the latest initiatives from the Trump administration, but I do think that the downside risk to growth, the upside risk to inflation, we're starting to see that spread increase, which could compound a less favorable outlook for the economy, at least in the near term.

Speaker 2

How does the stock market fit in if you look at any core first term economics, major non economics, major text the stock market, Lindsay Biggs shows up about chapter twenty three. How do you fold a declining stock market futures now negative eighty down, futures negative forty one, the vix out almost three big figures. How does that fold into confidence in the animal spirit?

Speaker 3

Well, I think that reinforces the concern and the lack of optimism that the market has right now for the US economy broadly to continue to perform without this ongoing rank propelled by the consumer, which again really propped up the economy over the past couple of years. So this underscores the uncertainty and the volatility and the lack of confidence that investors and consumers have looking forward over the next couple of quarters.

Speaker 4

All right, so lindsay, what do you think we'll see some of this? I guess just uncertainty in the marketplace caused by in part by some of this talk on tariffs, talks on change of immigration policy. Will it be in growth GDP numbers or will be in an inflation? Where do you think we'll see it first, if at all?

Speaker 3

Well, it's going to take some time to filter into the inflation numbers. So the tariffs that are enacted today are going to take probably two to three months to filter into the inflation numbers. So there is a sizeable lack in terms of the growth aspects. We would expect that more of a near term reaction, consumers reacting in

anticipation of those potential increases. We would also see businesses at the start of the year already increasing inventories, again in anticipation of that potential implementation and potential impact of Paris. So I think we're going to see that in the growth numbers first and foremost before we actually see the realized impact on prices.

Speaker 2

Lindsay Northwestern University in Chicago. They have their acclaimed transportation center right now. The transportation center between whoever wins a Canadian election and President Trump is a bridge between Detroit and Windsor, Ontario. You've got a visceral knowledge of that. How do you describe de mere mortals the trade tension across that frozen river.

Speaker 3

Oh, it's quite intense. But remember it was not long after that traff was announced that the Jump administration did grant an exemption for the auto sector for a period of one month amid massive pleas from several large automakers that these tariffs would cause severe supply chain disruptions, could result in significant price increases. So the sense of immediacy in terms of that rollback that exemption period really underscores the sensitivity and importance of that relationship.

Speaker 2

Okay, the really side, we get to April. I mean the Red Sox are winning the first week of April. Season's over by fourth week of April, Lindsey Piegs, are we going to see? Do you just assume with the dynamics and knowledge and facts you have right now that you know Ford or GM or Stilantis Chrysler's get un dial one eight hundred Trump and say we're laying off X thousands of people on Tuesday. Is that what we're going to see in May or June.

Speaker 3

Well, we certainly could be, and it could be used

as a negotiating tactic. But at the same time, the Trump administration has been clear that a period of adjustment is expected, that that temporary disruptions are expected, And the bottom line comes down to the Trump administration wants to be able to level the playing field, and if that comes at the consequence of the auto sector, I think the administration may be willing to sacrifice that, at least in the near term, to ensure a better, longer term trade agreement with our neighbor.

Speaker 2

I'm making the number up, folks. I'm not qualified they're going to sacrifice twenty thousand jobs in the greater pigs of Midwest to get some national thing done. I see no history that that's occurred.

Speaker 3

I don't think that we have to go to the extreme where we see a complete shutdown of the industry. But maybe there's some room for negotiation. That the tariffs that were put in place, the twenty five percent, maybe that's too elevated for the auto sector. Maybe we see some sort of exclusion as we saw with Canadian energy, which will have a lower tariff of ten percent. Maybe the Trump administration that would be willing to negotiate lower.

But again, it comes down to the resolve of the administration to enforce these tariffs to ensure a longer term, more even playing field with our international trading partners. And I think that if some jobs are lost, if some uncomfortability for the economy occurs, I think the administration is willing to take that medicine.

Speaker 2

To the editorialize yeah, my head, Yes exactly.

Speaker 4

Hey, lindsay, given all this backdrop here that we've been talking about, how's the US consumer these days?

Speaker 3

Well, the US consumer is on relatively solid putting if we look at their financial condition, when we look at the amount of debt accumulation, yes, it has rammed up massively, particularly with credit cards, at one point to trillion dollars in terms of outstanding balances. But when we put that in the perspective of the health of the balance sheet, so the ratio of debt payments relative to disposable income,

we're still talking about a multi decade low. So the ability for the consumer to continue to spend and borrow is certainly there, but the willingness is beginning to get shipped away again amid all of this uncertainty of these different policies coming down the pipeline.

Speaker 2

Doctor Piegs, thank you so much. My Economist of the Year last year. She absolutely nailed a FED reticent to cut interest rates.

Speaker 1

You're listening to the Bloomberg Surveillance podcast. Catch us Live weekday afternoons from seven to ten am Eastern Listen on Applecarplay and Android Auto with the Bloomberg Business app, or watch US live on YouTube.

Speaker 2

Hendriet of trades with us right now, She's spend with us almost daily, wicked intelligence with VEDA partners on what's going on in Washington. Henrietta, I got any ways to go, and folks, I'm not going to mince words. The tape is terrible. This morning, Jeff steined Dan Diamond the Washington Post top story. Everybody in Washington reads it. Trump touted sweeping tariff DOGE plans, then watered down how long can the White House sustain action, and then watered.

Speaker 5

Down apparently in perpetuity. It's happened effectively since January twentieth, when he front ran his trade team in the Oval Office that night, said tariffs were coming February first, immediately pushed that out to February fourth, kicked it to March, kicked it to later in March, and now here we are on the cost of the week where we're going to get stealed aluminum tariffs both at twenty five percent.

Tyreff's on dairy and lumbar coming in from Canada, which you're going to be massively disruptive and get huge pushback from the home builder industry. I think there's going to be a continued probably four year long fits and starts on the trade front, four year long.

Speaker 2

She's depressing, So I need something.

Speaker 4

So, I mean, Henrietta, should we expect any type of discussion, rhetoric commentary from our good friends in Congress about global trade.

Speaker 5

Yeah, I think that that's gonna tick up. One of the things that's really noticeable to me in this Republican bill. You were talking about the prospects for a shutdown earlier. There's no bailout for farmers in this package, and if this bill passes, that effectively means there won't be any further subsidization of the US agriculture industry until late September.

That's a really long time to weather what is about to be a fifteen percent tire from China on all of our agriculture sector, and then tariffs on eighty six billion dollars worth of goods, mostly pork and beef, fruits and vegetables, orange juice, things like that from Canada as soon as March twenty fifth. So there's a big headwind come in the agriculture sector's way, and that's going to start to spur members to start talking that what.

Speaker 2

Is the response of Henrietta TRACE's Washington to economic slow down sort of kind of like recession or actual National Bureau of Economic Research recession.

Speaker 5

Man, this was incredible data sets from President Trump over the weekend, effectively acknowledging that the five trillion dollars in tax preferences that the Republican Party is going to write is writing right now, will not be stimulative, will not be enough to offset the potentiality of a recession driven by global tariffs for the first time since the nineteen thirties. So I think that was a real showing of President Trump's hands and the cards that he's hearing from his

economic advisors behind the scenes. The problem is that Ambassador Lthheiser and his current Trade and Commerce secretaries and Treasury secretaries support the tyreff for agen to support this whole idea the tariffs are the way to get everything that we want. So I think that's really striking and everybody should sit with that for a little while.

Speaker 4

And you know, over the weekend, Henriette, I was thinking about just the political calculus associated with terrorists. If I'm in des Moines, Iowa, Okay, maybe I'm not a farmer, and there's maybe you know a handful of big farming conglomerates in Des Moines, Iowa, but everybody in Des Moines, Iowa, in some way, shape or form, is kind of impacted by the health of the of the farms in Des Moines, Iowa. How is this politically doable for President Trump and his administration?

It would I would think it would be very difficult for them.

Speaker 5

You know what's interesting. I feel like it's doable for Trump and the administration because he personally is so popular. Who it's not doable for is the House and Senate Republicans.

So I would take Alaska as a perfect example. You have states like Alaska that are heavily federally subsidized whose you know, veterans are being fired three hundred and thirty one veterans just in Alaska alone already from DOGE before they even get to this big swap of eighty thousand veterans they're planning to fire, and the big sweep of

federal employees they're planning to fire over the summer. You have these individual Senators and individual House members in swing districts or those votes that have gone back and forth, and those members are already illustrating that they can't whether it's storm they've canceled town halls. Democrats are sort of gleefully pointing that out and holding their own so that those disaffected boats come and speak. I don't think that it's a problem for Trump. I think it's a problem

for the rest of the Republican conference. And that means they have a year to get their legislation enacted, and then they'll get shall act in the midterms, which is normal.

Speaker 2

Hendriada quickly here. The Washington Post talks about firefighter training at FEMA canceled. Bloomberg's got stories of this, that and the other canceled this INFORBS aviation safety at risk among those cuts. Is that true? Do you perceive that the cuts are drifting into airplanes landing at Denver?

Speaker 5

That is absolutely true. It's definitely the FA. I mean they're cutting everything from that to the Weather Service. So yes, across the board, indiscriminate, completely ad hoc and inconsistent. And then even adding to the uncertainty, there's reporting out this morning saying, hey, yo, give us your your personal email address and your personal cell phone address, and we can call you if we mistakenly fired you. So I think

there's just a lot of disruption. The jobs reports numbers to be a real up and down for the next couple months.

Speaker 2

I got that email from Bloomberg this weekend. Hend here to trace. Thank you so much our Most Valuable Guests Most Valuable Player award Yes for Early two thousand twenty five.

Speaker 1

This is the Bloomberg Surveillance Podcast. Listen live each weekday starting at seven am Eastern on Apple Cocklay and Android Auto with the Bloomberg Business App. You can also listen live on Amazon Alexa from our flagship New York station, Just say Alexa Play Bloomberg. Eleven thirty oh Canada.

Speaker 2

Derektor Kluitt joins us now Executive veteror Managing editor of Bloomberg News in Toronto. Here on the path forward, Okay, Derek, the Democrats the Liberals won. It's Mark Carney, ex Governor Financial Monetary Guy England, Canada. The Conservatives are there if there's an election. Who's ahead in the polls?

Speaker 6

Well, currently the Conservatives still have a lead, but it has narrowed a lot. When Trudeau was kind of, you know, on his way out, very unpopular Prime minister at the end of last year. The Conservatives led in most polls by more than twenty points. And now if you look at the polling that takes into account, this is prior

to yesterday's vote that made Carney the Liberal leader. But where pollsters were asking theoretically, who would you vote for if Carney was in the race, Conservatives have kind of a narrow lead, about thirty three percent of decided voters, and the Liberals would under Carney have about twenty eight percent of voters. So it's going to be tight, and there's going to be, you know, probably an election campaign coming soon.

Speaker 2

I can just see us up in Autawa, Toronto and now and now we go to the key swing state whatever, what's the Ohio of Canada? Like like Carneie and excuse me, I don't know how to pronounce it because I'm an ugly American. Who's the Conservative Canadate again? Derek Pierre, Pouliev, Pauliev, Paulijev and Carney where's their Ohio? Where's the swing state? Among the provinces?

Speaker 6

I mean, this gets this gets decided really in the suburbs of Toronto, the suburbs of Montreal, and the suburbs of Vancouver. The Conservatives have more or less a lock on most of rural Canada and much of the West. The Liberals, you know, historically and certainly under Justin Trudeau, were extremely strong, and you know in the core centers like day on downtown Toronto and and you know in certainly large parts of Quebec. So this is this is the way to think about this is more like it's

it's the suburbs of Philadelphia. That's the Ohio of Canada.

Speaker 2

Bucks County, Don Mills is the Bucks County.

Speaker 6

That's right, That's right, Derek.

Speaker 4

What's the feeling amongst the average Canadian about what's happening here in the US and how we're kind of interacting with you guys in terms of tariffs and rhetoric and out of this administration.

Speaker 6

The first word that comes to mind is anger, and I mean that it's outright anger. There was a poll last week that was published asking Canadians how they view the United States, whether it's an ally country and enemy country or a neutral. But the first time, I think ever ally and enemy are equal. Thirty percent of Canadians believe the US is an ally thirty percent say enemy, and most of the rest say neutral. And that is you know, I think a year ago those numbers would

not have looked anything like that. That is entirely because of the trade war and the fifty first state taunts and justin Trudeau. I mean, every poll that you see shows just a huge level of opposition to anything like a fifty first state idea. It's an eighty to ninety percent range. It's similar across the country. There is there is no political appetit up here for discussion about any type of union union with the US.

Speaker 2

Good morning on your community across Canada in America. Derek Kluette with us right now from Bloomberg News in Toronto.

Speaker 4

Puskre what do we expect to hear from mister Carney here in the coming days and weeks and months of his you know, going forward.

Speaker 6

It's going to be a really fast transition from Trudeau

to Karney. The two men will meet today. We expect Carney will be sworn in probably by the end of the week, and that he's really going to try to drag the Liberals from the left much more to the center, to be a more business friendly face, more focused on growth, and that he sees a sort of his you know, his pathway because because he you know he won the race because he's seen as the economic guy and we're if not in an economic crisis, then on the precipice of one.

Speaker 2

What is the nature of the election. I mean, you've got tenure at the Globe and Mail, which I read pretty much every day. Good morning to David Shrimman writing for the Globe and Mail and the Boston Globe. Is well, Derek. How does the election differ from in America? Like does Celine Dion show up the Wednesday before the election? I mean, how does it work?

Speaker 6

It's an extremely quick election. Yeah, when we get when when we get into a general election, it'll be about six six weeks long. Uses the British parliamentary system and you can have, as as Justin Trudeau had for most of his time, a sort of semi coalition government where you have to where you have to pull together neo multiple parties if one party does not get fifty percent

of the seats in the House. So it'll be quick, and I think this one will be will be quite personal and nasty because there is a lot of animus built up between between Pierre Pouliev and the Liberal side.

Speaker 2

Michael Barr wants to know do They campaign by like saying, if I'm elected, I'll save the Toronto maple leafs. I mean, you know, how does Derek could Carney or the other guy say I'm going to fix the Toronto maple leafs or is that the un remarxible.

Speaker 6

Mark Carney is a huge Edmonton Oilers fan, so I don't think he has any interest in saving the Toronto maple leafs.

Speaker 2

Are there any liberals in Edmonton?

Speaker 6

Actually Edmonton is Vonton is the most liberal part of Alberta by far. They do, they do have one one seat out there.

Speaker 2

Did they trot out like does Bobby or get trotted out? I mean, I mean I saw the Gretzky up war with Canada in the series in that but you know, what should we look for in the election? Kissing babies at hockey games or is there a different approach?

Speaker 6

Well there will be some of that, but you know, Canadian politics is a more understated affair, you know, compared with with US politics. I mean, what what what what you will see is you will see the Canada. It's just over and over, just like they were over and over again in the seventh Swing States. They will be over and over again in you know, in Mississauga, Ontario, and you know, and and the suburbs north of Montreal,

and in Richmond, British Columbia. You know, because most of the three hundred and forty or so House seats are kind of already decided. It's going to come down to, you know, probably sixty or sixty or seventy swing seats. But Canadian politics is also volatile. Stuff can move really quickly.

Speaker 2

I got twenty seconds. Derek Sparta wants to know if he does a road trip sending Lisa, Michael bar Paul Sweedey and Media Canada. Should we go to Toronto or Ottawa to do our show up there?

Speaker 6

You should one hundred percent come to Toronto and we'd love to have you.

Speaker 2

See.

Speaker 4

We love Canada.

Speaker 2

It's amazing. And then with the we didn't even ask him what Looney's going to do. Derek, thank you so much. Derek de Claude was just huge journalism experience.

Speaker 4

One person in my life that has anything ever negative to say about Canada.

Speaker 2

No, we love Kenneday we're talking. I'm not on speaking terms of Lusia, but I am a.

Speaker 4

US at a big portion of Canada viewing US as enemy it's just so disappointing.

Speaker 1

This is the Bloomberg Surveillance Podcast. Listen live each weekday starting at seven am Eastern on Apple Corplay and Android Auto with the Bloomberg Business app. You can also watch us live every weekday on YouTube and always on the Bloomberg terminal.

Speaker 2

Right now, mister bitterly with us with a city group out of Notre Dame. Just exquisite academics out of Notre Dame, and we're thrilled she could join us this morning. We have a taxware investment up twenty percent two years in a row. Now we have all this emotion as well. Are you taking profits? I mean that's in the old days what we used to do. Now we have wealth. Man, what are you doing about the tax situation? If everybody's got ginormous gains on their portfolio.

Speaker 7

Well, I think the really interesting thing for US investors is that there's plenty of strategies that are tax aware where you can actually do that rebalancing without necessarily having to take the gain.

Speaker 2

Probably do that.

Speaker 7

So basically, what you can do is generate passive losses within portfolios such that if you want to rebalance, you're not actually penalized for rebalancing and then following the benchmark index. And there's even more innovative strategies because in a bull market, it's going to be difficult to actually continue to generate those losses unless you're adding capital every single month, and so what some of the more innovative strategies are doing are using futures and options to be able to do

that as well. But that being said, Tom, I think your question is more around looking at the market that we're in and actually saying where should you have exposure, and that is something we did some substantial rebalancing in Q four of last year when we were just looking at we couldn't have predicted deep seek or anything like that.

We're just looking at the outsized representation of the mag seven and saying we see earnings broadening out this year, so let's be a little bit more balanced in terms of our equity exposure. And we also diversified internationally. So if you are someone who came into this year where you have fixed income exposure, you have international exposure, you weren't overly exposed to those megacap names. Well, you're not happy right now seeing some of the uncertainty and volatility.

You're pretty well positioned in terms of being able to weather this storm.

Speaker 4

What are you hearing from your clients just in the last several weeks with this sell off in the markets, We're off in the s and P of five hundred, you know, seven eight percent from the recent highs. What are you hearing from your clients? Is there a level of concern panic? What are you hearing well?

Speaker 7

When you look at how the market is reacting, I think very simply, it's been a pretty orderly selloff. You can even see that in levels of the vics. I think our investors in wealth management we are lucky because they're long term capital and so they're really playing the long game here. But I think the big question on the table right now is we started this year from

a position of strength. You could talk about the broadening out story in US equity earnings, you could talk about the six and a half trillion dollars in cash on the sidelines, inflation coming down, even the fact that FED funds have peaked. And now the question is looking at this economic data that's coming in, particularly when it comes to sentiment, consumer confidence, as well as the employment backdrop. People are wondering all of these details are they telling us a different economic story?

Speaker 2

Forty eight seconds before we go to the market opening. What does buy the dip mean?

Speaker 7

To Kristin Bitterley, I think by the dip means we have not yet capitulated. However, there are opportunities, especially right now, large cap quality free cash flow generating names. If I'm buying the dip and actually not just picking a moment from market timing, but going on the way down, I would lean into quality free cash flow.

Speaker 4

So there you go, quality free cash flowing.

Speaker 2

Are you allowed to give us a name? Or do you go in the time out here?

Speaker 7

If you do that, well, I mean single stocks, Unfortunately, I would go into the timeout chair.

Speaker 6

Tom.

Speaker 7

What I will say from a sector perspective is you can look at some of the just go From a size perspective, large cat, profitable free cash flow, even some of the dividend grower type names would be beneficial as well.

Speaker 2

Kristi Bitterley with us here on managing emotions. Is cash a constructive holding right now?

Speaker 7

I think it's part of a portfolio in terms of maintaining liquidity and being able to buy into some of these opportunities. I think the thing that you always run into, going back to this concept of market timing is for investors who believe they're either all in or all out, that is not productive.

Speaker 2

She's killing me. You're a Notre Dame. You're killing it. Show me one minute in economics at Notre Dame where quote market timing unquote worked.

Speaker 7

It never worked market timing. That's the thing is if the stats are actually on average, if you miss the two best days in a given calendar year, you erode your perannum gains by nearly eighty percent. And so the reason for that is you tend to have clustered volatility in the market, where essentially the sell offs are followed

by some of the best days. And so what we tend to see is if in this type of environment, if you're very nervous, if you go all out and you're in cash, yes there's some attractive yields there, but those are temporary. Your long term earnings are certainly going to suffer.

Speaker 2

Shout out Ryan Detrick today out on Twitter had a great tweet on this Paul Sweeney about the x number of days single days like the day's duke loses in basketball, The single days if you're not in the market when it moves. Miss Bitterley's number is eighty percent of your gain eeveroration.

Speaker 4

So we've heard that before. So we've seen a lot of policy driven uncertainty in the marketplace over the last couple of months. Are you suggesting to your clients look past that focus on the long because you can make short term recession calls, you can make inflation calls, stagflation. There's a lot of concerns short term, but you make the call to look past it.

Speaker 7

So what I would say is the number one concern that our investors and the number one question that they really have is I think coming into this year, there was comfort in terms of when President Trump won the election. There was this overarching concept of pro market that SMP five hundred is a barometer for success and the ten

year below five percent. I think some of the most recent commentary where taking a victory lap because yields have come down and what that means for mortgages and other parts of the market are causing people to question a little bit. But going back to what I said earlier, asset allocation has worked in these markets. That actually is something healthy and it's something that we haven't really seen

over the past couple of years. So correlation fixed income equity, the lack of correlation there is actually working in your favor. So diversification, asset allocation are where to be.

Speaker 2

Do you own a tesla like a car?

Speaker 7

Do I actually own a Tesla myself?

Speaker 2

No?

Speaker 3

I do not.

Speaker 2

I do not. It's painful. Missus Keane was on the phone with somebody that owns a Tesla. Wow. Yeah, it's like depreciation city. Tesla down fourteen, it was like a two fifty three indication. I didn't even mention it to forty eight on Tesla right now? Is it five?

Speaker 4

And I still bak you baby baq function Bloomberg quote.

Speaker 2

Five zero percent. Yeah, it's working out.

Speaker 7

But even if you look at that, the rally post the election was so extreme, so that volatility to the upside, you're gonna have to have some of it to the downside as well.

Speaker 2

Well. Back to September exactly, That's how I look. We're back to September twenty twenty four. Notre Dame March madness. Come on, no, I.

Speaker 7

Know, I was just at Notre Dame last week. I was, I was Our women are faring better than are men.

Speaker 2

So yes, football season, Christy there is better than good. Kristin Bidderley, thank you so much. She is with Sidney Group.

Speaker 1

This is the Bloomberg Surveillance Podcast. Listen live each weekday starting at seven am Eastern on Apple Corplay and Android Auto with the Bloomberg Business App. You can also listen live on Amazon Alexa from our flagship New York station. Just say Alexa play Bloomberg eleven thirty.

Speaker 2

We need some joy. The newspapers Lisa Monteo, Lisa make us last.

Speaker 8

Well, see now, I'm gonna make you not last. It's not such an upfeat story, Okay, It's a look into the job market. It's just showing how more older Americans are turning down to blue collar jobs and side hustles because they're getting squeezed out of the white collar jobs. They're saying their age salary expectations, they are being beat out, you know, for my younger workers. So they're going into

truck driving custodians. Some are taking part work as security guards uber uber eats on the side because a lot of them actually still have debt from getting their masters, so they still have to pay off longer.

Speaker 2

Yeah, retiring it.

Speaker 4

Somebody might do it at sixty one back for example, somebody might try to retire at sixty one. Yeah, no, they can't.

Speaker 8

They can't, just because you have to save up more. And look at how much you have left.

Speaker 2

And now we're getting out to work. Long sitting in Prague, the Czech Republic, having a lovely like moonlit dinner out on all by myself, out in a little cafe, and everyone around me was older than American. This has got to be pushing twenty five years ago when Matt Winkler sent me over there, and the answer is, I predict thousands of retires in America will go abroad. Tip of

the iceberg here right now, it's just brutal. And I make no bones about it, folks, I can't afford to retire, like you know, fossils like me are like you're kidding me. Mister Bohmberg, good morning, how are you, sir?

Speaker 8

Next? Have you ever had beef?

Speaker 2

Yes, there's a little place on your duff Fien, right by a hotel Dabisson. Of course, the best beef burgunna I'll take. And it's they use costco utensils. It's like cheap. It's like it's the rooster it's called but that's.

Speaker 8

The point because it's cheap. Okay. So there's this restaurant in Paris. It's called stick with me here Le bon chartel. I'm going in Paris. It's been this destination for like cheap French food since like eighteen ninety six. It was on the Netflix show Emily in Paris, so it became popular again. But theirs is in American dollars ten dollars and eighty cents, and they've kept it that way for four years because they want to make it more affordable

to people. But they're saying it's harder for them to keep that price because everything is getting expensive, the electricity for their restaurant, you know, the wages for the staff, the price of the beef. So what they're doing instead, it is when prices soar too much, they'll drop certain items from the menu, like the beef.

Speaker 2

You know.

Speaker 1

It is.

Speaker 8

Sometimes they'll take it off for like a week, and then they'll bring it back, you know, because if it gets too expensive. But I need to try this, it sounds delicious.

Speaker 4

I haven't been in Parison a long time.

Speaker 2

I need to get I mean, I.

Speaker 4

Got it, but where's the Europe now? One a wayste I missed my.

Speaker 2

Want to trust Europe. Yeah.

Speaker 8

And finally, Tom, I think I'm gonna have to go for the super big card at Costco because usually I keep mine to like a one cart.

Speaker 2

Maybe I'll have another, but they I've seen you two cards.

Speaker 8

But they have the big trolleys, and I think I have to go for it because they're massive one hundred inch TVs. They're hundred hits one hundred inch. Do you need a TV that big? I don't know. But they're about fifteen hundred to about thirty five hundred dollars that's the range for them, and they're so much hotcakes and they're suddenly like crazy, people are buying them up one because social media made them popular and people started boxing these because the box is like ungodly, like it's huge,

and so people started posting this. But they're saying, which interesting is that the shift in Costco, Like the people who come through the store are now wealthier, so they're putting in a lot more of these higher end products into Costco now, like a four hundred thousand dollars diamond ring.

Speaker 4

They get TV's everywhere at the shop rate on Root thirty five on wall Tonship. They have yeah, those big massive TVs to stay there by the checkout.

Speaker 2

Oh yeah, I'll take that.

Speaker 3

I don't get it.

Speaker 2

Yeah crazy, It's fascinating. Lisa wan Tello, thank you so much the newspapers this morning.

Speaker 1

This is the Bloomberg Surveillance Podcast, available on Apple, Spotify, and anywhere else you get your podcasts. Listen live each weekday, seven to ten am Easter and on Bloomberg dot com, the iHeartRadio app, tune In, and the Bloomberg Business app. You can also watch us live every weekday on YouTube and always on the Bloomberg terminal

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