Global Markets Gear Up for 2024 Election - podcast episode cover

Global Markets Gear Up for 2024 Election

Nov 04, 202443 min
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Watch Tom and Paul LIVE every day on YouTube: http://bit.ly/3vTiACF.
Bloomberg Surveillance hosted by Tom Keene and Paul SweeneyNovember 4th, 2024
What would YOU like to hear about on Bloomberg? Help make shows like ours even better by taking our Bloomberg audience survey. (https://bit.ly/4eIFhe5)
Featuring:

  • Ann Selzer, Iowa pollster & President at Selzer & Co., on her most recent poll showing Kamala Harris leading Donald Trump in the state
  • Jordan Rochester, Head: FICC Macro Strategy at Mizuho, offers his reaction to last week's jobs report, talks about the Fed, and gives his outlook for how markets will react to the US presidential election
  • Bob Woodward, author and former Washington Post reporter, on Donald Trump, Kamala Harris, and his new book "War"
  • Lisa Mateo on newspapers

See omnystudio.com/listener for privacy information.

Transcript

Speaker 1

Bloomberg Audio Studios, podcasts, radio news.

Speaker 2

This is the Bloomberg Surveillance Podcast. Catch us live weekdays at seven am Eastern on applecar Player, Android Auto with the Bloomberg Business App. Listen on demand wherever you get your podcasts, or watch us live on YouTube.

Speaker 3

And selser the young Turks will say invented the business and she changed the national dialogue this week, and thank you so much for joining us. Full disclosure, folks, I work with in years ago with Bloomberg News, so I just want to get that out of the way. And how has polling changed with the advent of the cell phone.

Speaker 4

Well, first, let me say that the industry was invented by George Gallup, who grew up in Jefferson, Iowa. So the Iowa lineage is strong. I'll give you that question about cell phones. We didn't really need to dial cell phones until two thousand and eight, but now they are a routine part of our practice. That is, we draw a random sample of cell phone numbers and of landline numbers, and it's as easy as it ever once was in some phones.

Speaker 3

Paul Sweeney and I compare our phones. Paul got fourteen calls this weekend I got ten calls this weekend. We're not answering the phone. How do you account for that? In Iowa? As you say, Harris could win.

Speaker 4

You know, what I like to say is for every one of you, Tom that is not answering your phone, there's a doppelganger who who does answer their phone, and they reflect what it is that you would if you talk to us. You know, I'm kind of teasing there. We have a response rate that is better than the natural national average. What it says on your phone is unknown caller, So it doesn't say possible spam, It doesn't

do anything that might tip you off. And if you do answer, the first thing that you hear the interviewer say is that they're calling from the Iowa poll. And I think I give that great credit for our ability to get a good cross section of Iowans.

Speaker 5

And talk to us about your latest poll. What's it tell you these days?

Speaker 4

Well, it was a shock, believe you me, when I went into the office after the first night of interviewing. No one would expect that Kamala Harris would have leapfrogged over Donald Trump into the lead. We had seen her move in the September poll from where we were measuring Joe Biden as the nominee back in June. But and this is really just a continuation of that. She now leads by three points. I think forty seven forty four, right, who.

Speaker 5

So what's driving this strength for vice president?

Speaker 4

It's a and it's a continuation of what we saw in September, which is the difference between June and September. Were more people, dramatically more people saying that they were likely to vote. That measurement would be I'm going to definitely vote. If you just say probably, we don't count that, and that that increase accounted for Kamala Harris's bump. So less than one percent of people went for Donald Trump when thirteen percent went for Kamala Harris. And that was

the difference between June. It was an eighteen point gap in June, a four point gap in September. That continues with our October poll in that the demographics more likely than average to say they will definitely vote or that they've already voted, are strong Harris demographics. It's women, it's college educated, it's younger people, it's older people as wells of voting. If your age sixty four and over is like ninety four percent. That's a really big number. And

she does very well with older Iowans. In fact, her she wins by twenty points with Iowa women and just fourteen go for Trump. The margin is fourteen for Trump if you journey. One thing crystal clear about the importance of older people is older women. Her ratio of win in women age sixty five and over is two to one. Interesting, that's a huge part of her success.

Speaker 3

And Seltzer where us folks, of course iconic with a des Moines register and now on her own she is the polster that the polsters study in terms of accuracy. In all We're thrilled to have here Bob Woodward with us later in the hour and Seltzer, I want to go on. I mean, I get des Moines and all that, and aims, okay, fine, Chickasaw County. I'm two counties in

from the Minnesota border. It shows all of the political turmoil that Bob Woodard's written about for pushing fifty, here's here Barack Obama and then a huge swing to Trump. What did you learn in your polling about the Chickasaw counties of Iowa.

Speaker 4

Well, the Chickasaw counties in northwest Iowa. Those are still that's Trump territory. It's just that the margins aren't quite as big. I don't have data down to the county level. I wish somebody would pay me enough money that I could do that, but sorry, we got Okay. We can look at congressional districts, and this is really fascinating. The first congressional district which is now south east Iowa, so it includes Davenport and County south of that, it also

includes Johnson County, which is the University of Iowa. And Marionette Miller Meeks is the incumbent. All of our congressional representatives are Republican. She won narrowly by six or eight votes the last time. She's being challenged by a University of Iowa professor. And the talk about abortion has been the critical element of this campaign. The Democrat is leading

the incumbent Republican by twenty percentage points. So Iowa has a six week ban on abortion that went into effect this summer, and I think that that's responsible for the big gender gap with women, and I think that's also why Democrats may be doing better this time.

Speaker 5

And just from a historical perspective, how representative is Iowa for the overall United States? Chairs you think about your polls and the work you see.

Speaker 4

Well, if you're asking me to extrapolate, if it's happening in Iowa, is it happening in Wisconsin? Which is people make the assumption that we're very similar. I have made the argument that they're not that similar. Iowa has had a very strong Republican party that recruited good candidates, gotten good candidates elected, such that there is only one Democrat elected at the state wide level, and all of our Washington delegation is Republican. Both houses in the state House

are Republican, and not by small margins. That's not the same way in Wisconsin. It's a little more mixed there. So I think what Iowa, if it is representative, it is that there is more going on under the surface in terms of the abortion issue, in terms of perhaps Trump fatigue that is turning this state that no one expected would shift blue into a state that might.

Speaker 3

And so so thedent. President Trump went after you this weekend after he didn't like your poll. I believe there was a period long ago where you did a poll that favored Trump and he loved you, then well, I want you to speak to people like Lisa Matteo, Michael Barr, Paul Sweeney Toime Keene exhausted by the single point certitude of your racket. When you look at the modern day cacophony of polling, the disrespect or throw aside of margin of error, how does ANCELSA react.

Speaker 4

Well, keep in mind the margin of error works both ways. So if you want it to say that the race could be closer than the numbers reflect, the race could also be equally likely a wider margin for the winner, and people forget that and it says though they want it

to be close. We say that our best estimate is exactly what the numbers say, and any other estimate like well it's a virtual tie, is an inferior estimate, and that just the best, the highest probability of what's true are the actual numbers that we get.

Speaker 3

So I get a.

Speaker 4

Little you know, it's a point here, it's a point there, and people are wanting to make meaningful statements about that. I think that's been exhausting in terms of the other poles. So that my poll was not one point, and that my pole. You know, now is the leap frog for Harris. I think people are wondering if it's a canary in a coal mine, and that other states might be seeing similar things happening, but the methods of those polsters might not allow them to see it.

Speaker 3

Well, get this question and a listener just emailed it on.

Speaker 5

Tariffs and curious if tariffs are having an impact on this pole. I'm not sure farmers like tariffs.

Speaker 4

Well, when Trump instituted the tariffs, there was concern about it, but he was able to pull some money out of a different part of the budget and reimburse farmers for money that they had lost, so they ended up okay. I don't know that they're eager and excited to go back into tariff war because Iowa produces so much in the agriculture sector that it has to have foreign partners foreign markets for export. And that's been the case since Krushchef came to Iowa to learn how to do what

Iowa does with agriculture. This is back in the nineteen fifties, so they rely on foreign trade. I think they're probably nervous about it. When we tested tariffs back when they were in force under Trump, the farmers and the rural areas were going along with it. They liked their president, they're going to support it.

Speaker 3

And we got to leave it there. Of course, I remember your work Eisenhower Stevenson in the early fifties before Khrushchef showed up in Iowa. She is and Seltzer. She changed a political dialogue this weekend across the nation. Huge response on YouTube from Republicans and Democrats to her work and Seltzer of Iowa.

Speaker 2

You're listening to the Bloomberg Surveillance podcast. Catch us live weekday afternoons from seven to ten am. Easter Listen on Apple car Play and androyd Otto with a Bloomberg Business app, or watch us live on YouTube.

Speaker 3

The Tots are losing to Aston Villa. I mean they're just not getting it done, all right, and they take Sun the Korean out Tots fire it up and crush. I say, crush. Jordan Rochester's Aston Villa. I thought he'd cancel on us joining us now from Queen Victoria Street, Jordan Rochester with Miszuo looking at the broader perspective, but of course also his chirm on fixed income. Jordan, you're sitting with Dominic Constant and Steve Shuddo, how do you

play the election? Where's the Jordan Rochester opportunity?

Speaker 6

Well, it's clear to me, Tom, what's doing the next twenty four to forty six hours, which is whatever the trunk trades were do the old it and Friday was really painful after NFP because we've got a bit of a mess. But broadly speaking, for most of last week and so far today, we're seeing the dollar lower, we're seeing rates rally, the curve flatten, and we're seeing the probability of Trump's soften. That wasn't based on a view

that Trump's not going to win. It's just what I call the pre event trade coming to an end, which is we've had this build up of Trump's odds. We've had a very strong run in the dollar thanks to the macro as well. But people go to lighten up into the event risk. They want to take profit and be ready to react because it truly is fifty to fifty.

I lean towards saying Tom, the macro will still say buy the dollar whoever wins, but we're gonna have that knee jerk dollar lower if Harris wins for you to take advantage of it or you're going to miss it if Trump wins.

Speaker 3

Now, well, Missouri synthesized Jordan. This is important. Synthesize what Constant is doing in rashudo over in New York with what you're doing with London. Does that set you up for our resiliency in a higher interest rate regime?

Speaker 6

Well, I think with what Steve Reshouda has been talking about, the US is really on fire in terms of growth where things are with the labor market compared to Europe and Peers. So that's why we have I think we're gonna have a divergent monetary policy story. Maybe the Fed are not gonna be raising rates, that's a bit too farther stretch, but they won't be cutting rates as much as Europe needs to and will do. The UK is

kind of in between, so that's naturally dollar bullish. You just then have these tariff policies by Trump versus non tariff policies by Harris. That really widens up to where we get to. So if you have a Trump victory, you're looking at one oh three in euro dollar. That's a big swing from where we are now by year end. Or if Harris wins, you're going to see euro dollar back to one twelve, So this huge binary outcome that

the two sort of candidates will lead to. But then once we get to those equilibrium points, so let's say December, I think next year is still gonna be about us outperforming even if Harris wins.

Speaker 5

So Jordan at you know, running their fixed income, commodities and currencies. What are your clients across those asset classes. Are they hedging themselves going into tomorrow or they just taken the longer term saying, you know, I'm not too worried about the near term political. How are they playing it?

Speaker 6

I think, yeah, I think everyone's worried about the near term political because there's that gap risk, and I think a lot of people don't want to ruin their year to date p and ls as well. You know, we're just a month or so away from getting to that period where you lock in for the annual reports. So you're seeing a lot of people d risk. You've seen a lot of people uncertain, a lot of people saying the words I don't have an edge in this. The

polsters don't know what it's going to be. The sort of modelers like Nate Silver don't really know what it's going to be everything says fifty to fifty. So you see a lightning at the risk. You're seeing business activities slow down, you're seeing volumes slow down. I think that today's one of the quieter days so far in the

past week or two. But then everyone's ready to gear up once you know the outcome, because you it is an event that's difficult to predict, but still I think very tradeable after we know who's in the White House.

Speaker 5

So the dollar, though, I mean you go out six to twelve months, is there a bare case for this US dollar in your mind?

Speaker 7

There really is.

Speaker 6

There is a bare case, and it's one that a few charts say it's there, it's live, which is when the Fed got really dubbished on fifty basis points. It's if those impulses come back. And one of the charts that really screams that we've got a problem is the Conference Boards a Consumer Confidence which asks the question are jobs plentiful or are they hard to get? And if you plot that versus the United States unemployment rate, it is amazing at predicting where the big turns are going.

All the way back I think to the seventies and right now it says that unemployment should be on a five handle. Now, COVID's ruined many good charts, and we know unemployment is not on a five handle.

Speaker 7

It's four point one.

Speaker 6

So we are far from where that signal is. Is that signal wrong or is it right? And we've just been staring at it for a while and ignoring it.

Speaker 7

I think the signal might be wrong.

Speaker 6

I think this time around the fiscal impulse in the US and all of the COVID charts that have come to a silent death, I think this might be another one to add on top of that pile. But you know, I might be wrong, and the Conference Board is screaming there's a problem, and that leads to the US outperformance changing, FED cutting by more than what's expected.

Speaker 5

So what do you think we're going to hear from the FED this coming Thursday?

Speaker 6

I feel like the FED and maybe the Bank of England as well, if they could, they'd hide under the bed sheets to just get through this week because it's pretty difficult for policymakers. You've got the FED who's got to have questions about, you know, what is the change in politics mean for their outcome? Their outlook they're going

to say it doesn't matter. It does matter if you have tariffs with Trump, and it does matter if you have large fiscal And I think back to twenty sixteen, we were at a very tepid stage of the hiking cycle, and when Trump got in, we did see an acceleration in rate hikes. So it could be the case that if Trump gets in these cuts that were seeing from the Fed, I think we'll see a twenty five basis point cut, then maybe doubts about whether they go ahead

in December or January. That's kind of where we're at.

Speaker 3

Excuse me, Jordan, You're in the miszouo, which means I have to ask about Japan. Is Japan tradeable or is there so much uncertainty, including with the LDP challenges politically that you can't you can't get a visibility on yen out to the end of Q one twenty twenty five.

Speaker 6

I think it's very tradable. The politics has been very surprising. Essentially, what we've seen is the LDP stronghold on Japanese politics has weakened. They're quite likely to be either in a minority government or in a coalition agreement with other parties, and we still don't know the outcome of that. The twenty sixth of November is when an outcome needs to be determined. There'll have to be a vote in Parliament

to say if we're going ahead or not. I think what could happen is we might have a coalition partner that leads to more dubbish policies on the boj might lead to less hawkishness on the yen, and it might lead to more fiscal spending.

Speaker 7

So that just all spells dolly and higher.

Speaker 6

The main problem with the politics though, humans can be flippant Tom, and if we get to one sixty and dolly yen, do we see efics intervention Again? That's when it becomes really untradeable because who wants to take the other side of the of the mof But I think for the time being, dolly en high's easier if Trump wins. When we get to that one sixty level, we have to have a scratch and think, oh we're gonna have intervention here.

Speaker 7

I think no, Given the politicals.

Speaker 3

Very quickly you're linked into gold. I mean, I know that's off your remit, but if I get a one sixty yen, what does that do to gold in the Pacific Rim.

Speaker 7

Well, it's the same story.

Speaker 6

Gold's been one of the largest that performers this year because of the situation with sanctions, risks and tariffs. It's detached from real yields in the US, it used to be perfectly correlated for most part. If real yields and Dolly and gold split, who's the buyer and the buyer has been central banks. I think it's something that we're going to see faded, so gold suffers. If Trump doesn't win, it will definitely be a long term story of central bank.

So clearly the buyers here try and avoid potential sanctions down the line.

Speaker 3

Joining you twenty seconds, Tottenham top five team this year.

Speaker 6

Now Aston Villa is this was just a blip, even though we lost four nil against them last year at home, which I went to that game and decided not to go to yesterday's game for a good reason.

Speaker 7

What was what a screamer by Totonham. I've got to.

Speaker 3

Say, obligatory soccer talk. We had to do that for New York City after the marathon. Jordan Rochester with Miszuu, thank you so much, greatly appreciate it.

Speaker 2

This is the Bloomberg Surveillance Podcast. Listen live each weekday starting at seven am Eastern on applecar Play and Android Auto with the Bloomberg Business app. You can also listen live on Amazon Alexa from our flagship New York station Just Say Alexa playing Bloomberg eleven thirty.

Speaker 3

Joining us now on this selection, Eve, Bob word It's four hundred pages. The book is War. He's done many many the interviews on it. It is an insight into the Biden administration. I love what Robert Gates has said, who's served both political persuasions on Woodward. He has an extraordinary ability to get otherwise responsible adults to spill their guts to him. Bob Woodwards joins us on Election Bob. This weekend, I discovered someone in the key house so

who had not seen all the president's men. I tried to explain to them that I was interviewing Robert Redford on Monday. In that movie, you show up with mister Katie in the courtroom and you say, my name's Bob Woodward. I'm from the Post and I wanted to ask you how you happened to come on this case. The rudeness and direction of Redford's questions is appalling. It's shocking. Where did you learn to ask questions so abrupt, so direct, so as Robert Gates would say, they all spill their guts?

Where did you learn that skill?

Speaker 8

Oh? Well, well, look that morning I got called to the courthouse. This was the morning of the Watergate burglary. I've been covering night police for nine months. And I go to the courthouse and income these burglars dressed in business suits. I had never seen a burglar in a business suit. I've never seen a well dressed burglar. And the lead burglar announced reluctantly to the judge that he'd worked at the CIA, and I what CIA business suits?

Five burglars? Elder? I mean, it was just like, oh, how do you not followed this story?

Speaker 3

I want to drive the conversation forward, Bob, on this election eve for a nation some would say, fighting with its concept of democracy. In the epilogue to or, you have a brilliant two sentences. Often I have said, only half jokingly, that when I wake up in the morning, my first thought is, quote, what are the bastards hiding? Unquote? So let's get two answers. What is mister Trump hiding this morning.

Speaker 8

Well, Trump is making very clear who he is, and it's two it's so visible. Let me just give you an example. I'm sorry this may sound a little boring, but it's right at the heart of your question. The people Trump when he was president chose to be close to him, people who've spent their lives defending our country. And let's look at what these people that Trump picked for key positions say about Trump. Now, former Chief of Staff John Kelly, you know, one of the most respected

people in the military. This was Trump's selection to be the chief of staff at the White House. Kelly says of Trump, He's an idiot. It's pointless to try to convince him of anything. He's gone off the rails were in crazy town.

Speaker 3

Bob. Let me ask, also to your wonderful quote, what are the bestards hiding? What is Vice President Harris hiding into this election?

Speaker 8

Well, I think there are actually things that we don't know enough about. I had some time to work on how she deals with lots of issues, and it's very Let me get the right selection here, because she is tough.

She is the person who goes and has meeting with net Yahoo, which I got the notes of and really get This was July twenty fifth of this year, just a couple of months ago, and she is she could not be tougher with net Yahoo, and the notes show her saying the following in a closed meeting with bb net Yahoo, I'm disturbed by the humanitarian situation in Gaza. People are starving. There are four thousand people per toilet.

She really gets on him about this, and then she goes out in public and doesn't pull any punches and says, I'm not we cannot look away and become numb about what is happening in Gaza, and I will not be silent. I'm sorry, I'm giving a long answer.

Speaker 5

No, it's excellent Bob stepping away here. As we think about this election here, I can't help but wonder thinking about your work, your earliest work back of the Washington Post. What has become of the GOP party. It seems like it is now clearly the party of one former president dot Donald Trump. Is that the new GOP going forward?

Speaker 8

Well it is at the moment. We'll see. I know lots of Republicans and I know some who will say kind of public, oh, I support Trump. I like Trump because he's the force and the party. But privately it's thumbs down. They don't like Trump. Look who is Trump? This is the question that people need to answer. He doesn't like advice, he doesn't like democracy, doesn't like the Constitution, doesn't like truth.

Speaker 3

Joining us, Bob Woodward, we will continue with mister Woodward. We said good morning to all of you across the nation on this election eve. Onunder four hundred pages, War by Bob Woodward is simply a look into the Biden administration, framed by Netta who and putin Zelensky and of course Vice President Harris war spent out some time now, Pauls, when you pick it up with Bob Woodward, please.

Speaker 5

Bob tomorrow obviously election day, what will you be focusing on? Is it a state? Is it a certain candidate? Is it an issue? What are you going to be focusing on going into Well.

Speaker 8

I need to look at what happens in all the polls say it's razor thin. So who knows. I hope and that people will look at the candidates, particularly he was president for four years. He has said some things in this campaign that really and he really shows what's at state in this election. He is a danger to democracy. He is a danger to the United States. Why go back.

My first interview with him was thirty five years ago when he was a real estate king in New York City, and then and even in interviews I did in the Oval Office with him when he was president. He's driven by instinct. He's got this idea that his in stinks, what his gut feel is is perfect. That's the way to go. Yeah, both Yet run a government on anyone's in stakes, you need a aim, you need some alternative views. And Brump is locked, as we know, locked into himself.

Speaker 3

For the nation. In the selection of Bob Woodward joins us of course forever with the Washington Post. Bob, I had to do something for the youngest afterthought a while back, I had to look at her Vietnam paper and that, and like a lot of us, you were in NROTC at Yale, and I was doing another act out at the time at Boulder. I completely avoided reading or thinking

about Vietnam. And I enjoyed Max Hastings, you know him well from a Telegraph and his one volume on Vietnam as well, The Crucible, The Modern Democratic Party, McGovern and HHH in nineteen seventy two. The legacy that Vice President Harry.

Speaker 8

Hs being Hubert Humphrey.

Speaker 3

Hubert Humphrey, thank you. But the legacy that Harris carries forward. Do you see her as a change agent for Democratic Party theology or as the critics would say, Obama version four.

Speaker 8

Well, look, she's tough. She's going to President's school. She's very lucky in a sense, the country is very lucky that Biden, who was vice president, wants himself and didn't like to be cut out of things. He's made sure that she really is getting a graduate course in the presidency. She's at the meetings, the discussions, the debates. There are lots of signs of two qualities, independence and determination. And I think that that is a good thing. That's not

a political judgment. It is what I was able to do in the reporting about what her course of going to President's school is. She's got a national security advisor named Phil Gordon, who is really experienced. Billy goes back a long time into the White House and the State Department and brings a lot of knowledge. Who's Donald Trump's national security advisor? His mouth, he will say whatever he wants, whatever springs in. That is the danger.

Speaker 3

We face, Bob. What one final question that dedicate for my lifelong friend and reporting partner Carl Bernstein. Do you guys talk a lot like is there a Bernstein? What would take on where this nation is going right now?

Speaker 8

Well, we do talk all the time, three four times a week, for sure. We saw each other recently we did an appearance together and just a few days ago in New York City. The question here is who's Trump? Who's Harris? One important credential that Harris has is the Secretary of Defense. Austin has a lot of respect for her. I describe new scenes in the book about what Austin has done and how he's been very tough with the

Russian defense minister. Showgu and there's some transcripts I have that are in the book and you can see exactly what they said to each other. So there's hope. But to be a president and deal with this world situation now would stretch. Anyone would stretch. White Eisenhower would stretch. It is a very dangerous time. We've got to get it right and we got to be careful. And Trump

is not a manager. Trump is not a person who really understands what the national interest is because there is a blockage, and that blockage is he only cares about himself.

Speaker 3

On the selection. We continue with Bob Woodward in a few more minutes with miss We're in celebration of his book War in the twenty books or so before that is well, we welcome all of you across this nation and Apple CarPlay, Android Otto, and of course this new technology YouTube. Paul, there was no YouTube. No, there was not when the Watergate thing was going on.

Speaker 5

No, exactly, Hey, Bob, if President Trump were to lose this election, is there an air apparent? Does trump Ism remain a political force? Is a jdvans Er someone like that out there in the wings?

Speaker 8

I mean, I mean, that's you know, that speculation. I don't know. What is very interesting is to listen to Trump in the last couple of days. He's in a very sour mood. And I think it was yesterday or the day before he said, and then this is the man who wants to be president again. He's very dark, very profane comments. And he said, this is a crooked country. Now imagine somebody, this is not a crooked country. It may become one if he becomes Pressenton.

Speaker 3

Bob Woodward I gotta ask one final question, and this is immense respect, and you know, we get a huge response. Republicans hate you, Democrats love you. I get it, folks.

Speaker 8

Bob Woodward with no, no, that's just not I know lots of Republicans who don't follow, don't march in line with Trump.

Speaker 3

Well, I'm running out of time, Bob Woodward, but he got one final question, with great respect for your career. Should newspapers endorse presidents.

Speaker 8

Well, then that's obviously up to them. At the Washington Post. There's a big controversy about the non endorsement. Now the Washington Post I know very well for over fifty two years. Is I say it's strong when the reporting is strong, as it has been now, I think it's been magnificent, and the editorial page should deal with the strength of that reporting. The editorial page needs to deal with reality, and the reporting is real and incredibly strong. To ignore

it is to ignore reality. Not a good thing for any institute, right.

Speaker 3

Bob, Thank you so much. Bob Woodward on the selection eve across the nation, of course, foreverwhere the Washington Posts, the book is war.

Speaker 2

This is the Bloomberg Surveillance Podcast. Listen live each weekday starting at seven am on applecar Play and Android Auto with the Bloomberg Business app. You can also watch us live every weekday on YouTube and always on the Bloomberg terminal.

Speaker 3

Look at the front pages that Lisa Matteo our Lisa go.

Speaker 1

I know I forgot how to do this orund it's been too long, But since we're talking so much about election, I figure i'd start here. This is the Washington Post. It's saying this shift from election day to election season now because more people are casting the vote early so they see the difference.

Speaker 5

Quick number check.

Speaker 1

More than seventy four million people have already cast their ballots as of Saturday, and that's nearly forty seven percent the total number cast in the twenty twenty presidential election. So a lot of people doing it. So the experts are saying it's more election day has become this like more like end to voting rather than kind of the kickoff.

Speaker 3

What's your earliest memory of like going your parents and going.

Speaker 5

Yeah, definitely going into the definitely going into the polls with my parents back in the day.

Speaker 3

I'm sure my dad always.

Speaker 5

Went down to Republican side, you know, right down the thing. That's what he probably did.

Speaker 3

My father would pick me up and I got to pretend I was closing the handle thing, yep, and then you'd watch him click click, click, and maybe you could do one.

Speaker 1

Click as well.

Speaker 5

I think with technology we should know, like by eight o'clock tonight. But why we're doing write in votes? I have no idea which I did by that. I mailed it in.

Speaker 8

Did you vote for Taylor Swift?

Speaker 5

T Swift right in? But I just think there's no technology in the moment.

Speaker 3

Promise, where's my relationship with my kids or frankly with the dogs. If I'm doing a stupid write in ballot sterilized in the kitchen with the martini in my hand, That's not the way we did it. No, we're removed from it, Lisa.

Speaker 1

Yeah, and it kind of reminds me of how Black Friday used to be this big thing and then now it's become like.

Speaker 3

We'll talk to Bob Woodward of the Washington we'll host what you got?

Speaker 1

Yes, okay, So why your grocery bill is becoming so expensive? This is from the Wall Street Journal. It really breaks it down because it goes to the distributors and they're saying that's the main reason, because you have the food companies are saying higher cost higher ingreding costs, labor costs. But the companies, a lot of the smaller food companies are saying that it's the distributors, you know, the ones that take the products from the store from the food makers.

They bring it to the store, they sell it, and they ship them and they charge a lot of these extra fees, like a fee for launching a new flavor, a fee for getting a promotion at retail, a fee for if they supply too much product and it goes bad, there's a spoilage fee that they charge, you know. So there're a lot of these smaller food companies are saying they're stretched, like they don't know what to do because this is the and what they have to do is

raise the prices. And that's the reason for it. It's the distributors out of the issue.

Speaker 5

Well, the food makers had some nice profits over the last several years because they were they told your right in front, and the quarterly earnings were able to raise prices, you know, the protic were able to raise prices and because our maybe because our costs went up, but the wholesalers. I didn't even think about that, Okay, Yeah.

Speaker 3

I mean there's private label sales hit record in twenty twenty three.

Speaker 5

We do a lot more private label than we ever did before.

Speaker 3

Yeah, you wonder where that'll be in three four, three four or five years. Very good?

Speaker 1

Nextly, okay, So, if you want to learn to talk like a banker, there are a lot of terms you need to know. And this is a business insider finance speak, you know, Wall Street lingo. So they asked a couple of industry insiders who came up with this list of words. So they said, for example, bakeoff. Bakeoff has been nothing to do with flowers.

Speaker 5

So many bakeoffs exactly right, and one of my clients had a bake off, I'd be very upset. No, no, no, no, no, this is my business. You're my business. We're not opening up the competition. You know who was here calling on you every month for the last five years. So bakeoff there happens.

Speaker 1

Didn't know they compete to the This like chosen as an advisor by a client. Color is another one, talking about pink or blue? This one okay, okay, So it's often used when bankers are asking for more of something like I want more color from you. Tell me more basically more information, more information.

Speaker 5

So that's color.

Speaker 1

Boil the ocean?

Speaker 5

Have you heard that one? No boil the ocean?

Speaker 1

Okay, because you can't actually boil the ocean, right, So it basically means someone doing a little bit too much or making something more complicated than it has to be. So no, no, no, you're boiling the ocean, like just break it down. You're being too complicated. So it has like a lot of these different terms that are pretty cool. So they want, you know, if you want.

Speaker 7

To be in the loop.

Speaker 1

Okay, so that's what these are.

Speaker 8

Used to be.

Speaker 5

In the loop you used to be used to be.

Speaker 1

But you still know these, like you know the bank off there you go, you're six five trust fund.

Speaker 5

I still have a whole room full of our desk full of loose sights, which about one hundred and twenty of them.

Speaker 3

Yeah, they still do, they still do loose.

Speaker 5

I don't know because they don't do. I mean I saw I just saw an old Wall Street Journal line line around the head the tombstone in the world. I mean, that's the first thing you went to in section see to see if your deals Tombstone made it was, Yeah, it was just like exactly last one.

Speaker 1

Yes, the future of footwear is spray on sneakers. Not sure if anyone in the bath On more thies for twenty six two point mild, But it's a Swiss sneaker maker brand. It's called On So it made with spray. So basically it's this new technology. It sprays the upper part of the sneaker onto this foot mold and it's done by a robotic arm. Okay, so the whole idea behind it is that you don't need to stitch it.

It takes three minutes to make the shoe, and it could be the step toward automating an industry because the sneaker industry is very labor intensive, so it could be a change to the sneaker making industry. There costs you about three hundred bucks each, but now they're trying to bring the cheaper options in. But as they start to get this technology going, don't know it's supposed to fit like a sock. Don't know the support level or anything, but a spread on sneaker, I don't know.

Speaker 3

I'm I don't know where to begin with this other than I sat transfixed on a bed in Cape cod at two am one night, and there was a new mic, Lisa Mateo. Thank you so much for the newspapers. Are we doing this tomorrow special election day coverage? Thanks so much.

Speaker 2

This is the Bloomberg Surveillance podcast, available on Apple, Spotify, and anywhere else you get your podcasts. Listen live each weekday, seven to ten am Eastern on Bloomberg dot com, the iHeartRadio app tune In, and the Bloomberg Business app. You can also watch us live every weekday on YouTube and always on the Bloomberg terminal

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