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Fed Easing and Tariffs

Aug 25, 202537 min
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Watch Tom and Paul LIVE every day on YouTube: http://bit.ly/3vTiACF.
Bloomberg Surveillance hosted by Tom Keene & Paul SweeneyAugust 22nd, 2025
Featuring:
1) Ed Yardeni, Chief Investment Strategist at Yardeni Research, joins for an extended discussion the equity rally, his S&P target, and Jay Powell's Jackson Hole speech. Policymakers are grappling with inflation above their 2% goal and a labor market showing signs of weakness, with a high degree of uncertainty about how these factors will evolve, according to Chicago Fed President Austan Goolsbee.
2) Henrietta Treyz, co-founder at Veda Partners, joins for an extended discussion about Congressional priorities as leaders soon return to Congress and the outlook for tariff policy heading into the fall. Making matters harder for policymakers is this week's PCE inflation gauge, which is forecast to show the personal consumption expenditures price index rose 2.9% in July from a year ago, the fastest annual pace in five months.
3) Gennadiy Goldberg, Head of US Rates Strategy at TD Securities, joins to discuss the interest rate path post-Jackson Hole. The Federal Reserve's Jackson Hole symposium was a tense affair, with Chair Jerome Powell signaling an interest-rate cut as soon as the next policy meeting in September, despite clear divisions among policymakers.
4) Lisa Mateo joins with the latest headlines in newspapers across the US, including a Business Insider story on a Harvard professor's concern about AI and a WSJ story on saving to support children financially when they reach their 30s.

See omnystudio.com/listener for privacy information.

Transcript

Speaker 1

Bloomberg Audio Studios, Podcasts, radio news. This is the Bloomberg Surveillance Podcast. Catch us live weekdays at seven am Eastern on Apple car Play or Android Auto with the Bloomberg Business App. Listen on demand wherever you get your podcasts, or watch us live on YouTube.

Speaker 2

We got to get to one of the key bullmarket indicators. Ed your Donny Joints.

Speaker 3

Ed, what's the name of your dog?

Speaker 4

Well, Max, Max's always likes to show up here. And for those of you on radio, the Max indicator continues to see a bullmarket.

Speaker 3

Max is snoozing on the couch. Max on the market right shoulder. And because he's his head is closer to the armrest. That's any bullish indicator. Paul. Max's signal get us going, Yeah, he's very mellow.

Speaker 5

And thanks so much for joining here. Eventful Jackson Hole. Last week Tom Keen and his team were out there reporting on that. What did you take away from FRED chairman j Palse.

Speaker 4

Well, I think what was important and what the market sense was that he didn't say something he had earlier this year, started saying that we are in no rush to lower interst rates, referring to the Federal Open Market Committee, and at Jackson Hole on Friday, he did not say we are in no rush to lower interst rates. He basically said, well, we maybe were ready to make some adjustments here, and the market heard that as FED put

is coming. And what was interesting is he also didn't mention that, oh, by the way, between now and the September sixteen, seventeenth meeting, there'll be more economic indicators, and those indicators are very important. There'll be two inflation indicators in peril employment, and they might change the change everybody's mind about what the FED should do next.

Speaker 5

Yeah, I mean, I think he suggested that maybe the labor dynamic of this economy is taking a little bit of precedence for the FED visa VI inflation. But boy, he can't discount inflation perking up because it just we had more tariffs announced today with the furniture. So how do you think about inflation.

Speaker 4

Well, he himself said that tariff effects on inflation can be sort of a one shot deal.

Speaker 3

Said.

Speaker 4

The problem is if the tariff implementation isn't one shot and kind of gets spread over time, that could continue to create some inflationary pressures. I think what also is missing in the discussion here and he didn't discuss it, is that there's some indications that services inflation. Maybe if it's not heating up, it's certainly not cooling off. I

think what tariffs have done. If they've stalled the progress on getting down to two percent and now we're kind of stalled at three percent because durable goods inflation has come up, and that's clearly an indication of the tariffs and one of the.

Speaker 2

Great triumphs of the Ardent and folks. I'd link this with the great technical analyst Welthanka, for it is the belief in revenue growth, in earnings. I mentioned nominal GDP, the animal spirit of the nation at your Denny member at Jackson Hall that I have in eighteen twenty years before. If we get an elevated nominal GDP through real growth or inflation for a stock market, does it really matter which is pushing nominal GDP up?

Speaker 3

We just go, don't we? Yeah, revenues or revenues.

Speaker 4

The PE time Z is done in nominal terms and the E is in nominal terms, so that's correct. We look at the revenues and then we look at earnings, and the implication is profit margins. And what we see in the data is that the first and second quarter earnings were remarkably strong, much stronger than expected that they usually is a positive earning surprise, but there was particularly

strong in both quarters. And now during the second quarter, we have earnings on the S and P five hundred at an all time record high, and no wonder the stock market is an all time record high. Of course, it helps that the valuation multiple is elevated at twenty two. But I'm thinking the bill market continues here on earnings, and I think that earnings will continue to push stock prices higher.

Speaker 2

Bottle that, folks, and whether you agree or disagree with Edgar Denny, go to the beginning of that conversation where he's agnosket agnostic on why we have buoyant nominal GDP. This is sacrilegion the modern days, Paul, And I'm sorry, doctor you.

Speaker 3

Denny is correct. Nominal gets everything going. That's right.

Speaker 5

So we did they have pretty strong earnings here. How do you think about our earnings strong enough to support this market going forward?

Speaker 3

Well, I think so. Here's my arithmetic on that.

Speaker 4

I think by year end we could get to sixty six hundred on the S and B five hundred, that's not that far off, and I think we can get to seventy seven hundred by the end of next year.

Speaker 3

And my assumption is that by.

Speaker 4

The end of this year, when we're thinking about what earnings could be next year, we'll be looking at analys talking about three hundred dollars per share, and then at the end of next year, I think they'll be talking about three hundred and fifty dollars per share. Multiply those by the current twenty two multiple and evaluation marketable and you get sixty six hundred and seventy seven hundred.

Speaker 3

The tech moment that we're in, ed Yard Denny.

Speaker 2

Does that change the way any of us calculate our so called terminal value? If we have a see if a one oh one five year view or seven year study of terminal value is a new terminal.

Speaker 3

Value out more, just as we think we're going to grow so much.

Speaker 4

Well, I think that if you just kind of take normal assumptions of what the economy can deliver and has delivered in the past, you get to ten thousand on the S and P five hundred by the end of the decade. That's the end of twenty twenty nine, and the assumption there is that earnings expectations get up to four hundred dollars a share. And again that's all pretty straightforward, consistent with the kind of growth rate of six seven eight percent that we've seen in earnings over the years.

And if we get better than that, the market I could very well close even higher than that.

Speaker 5

And how concerned are you, if at all, about some of the concentration we see in this market. A lot of folks are saying it's just too too concentrated here with some of those big tech names.

Speaker 4

It doesn't bother me at all other than the fact that you know, it's I haven't been concentrated in my own portfolio like that. It's it's hard to be that concentrated to own thirty percent of your portfolio. And seven stocks is not exactly diversification, but it is what it is. And the ETFs that reflect the S and P five hundred obviously are in fact divers are in fact showing the concentration of thirty percent market capitalization accounted for by

the seven stocks. You know, there's stock markets around the world that are very concentrated, have been concentrated for years and I think there's nothing terrible about what's happening here. And by the way, if the Fed in fact doesn't listen to me and goes ahead and lowers interest rates, then we'll continue to see the broadening in the market to smidcaps.

Speaker 3

See her Denny is a governor vice chairman. Shure it'd be too much, folks.

Speaker 2

I use the famous Secunda interpolation calculator on the Bloomberg at your Denny said, end of the decade, Paul ten thousand, SPX, folks. Are you ready. I've never done this before. I've never said this before. Paul dow seventy thousand seven zero yep, seventy thousand, end of the decade, Ed, your Denny.

Speaker 5

We're at forty five right now. Hey, Ed, talk to us about just kind of where else in the marketplace that you find value here? Is that to the except people are looking for? Hey, I just need to find some decent value here, and I don't need to chase the hottest thing out There are certain sectors out there that you like.

Speaker 3

Well.

Speaker 4

I still do prefer the large caps over the smid caps, but you know, I also pay attention to what the market's doing and respect what the market is saying, and clearly there's a move here towards cheaper stocks. So therefore people are looking at the smaller and MidCap sector. Within those, I would kind of focus on the sectors that we like in the large caps, which would be information technology,

industrials and financials. So I think you can look in that part of the market cap segment to find cheaper stocks. I mean, the S and P five hundred is twenty two forward pe the large cap, the MidCap and small caps are at fourteen fifteen. So yeah, there are certainly a lot cheaper we're just kind of waiting for their earnings to improve. The problem I had with smid caps is they keep getting snapped up by the lodge caps

every time. You know, you never get to own a Microsoft because before it before it becomes a Microsoft, to get snapped up by Microsoft, the leverag is up its technologies.

Speaker 5

How about in a fixed income space, ED, how do you think about just the allocation stocks and bonds these days?

Speaker 3

Well, I think bonds are basically where they should be.

Speaker 4

I think we've normalized the bond yield where it was before the Great Financial Crisis. So I'm thinking that the ten year bond yield should in fact be about four and a half percent plus minus twenty five basis points, and we've been in that range really since the beginning of the year, and I think that's kind of settling down. So if you're very a conservative investor, I think you can buy yourself a ten year treasury and feel fairly comfortable that you know, if you have to sell.

Speaker 3

It early, you're not going to take a hit at your Denny.

Speaker 2

On index funds, Paul and I were looking at the ownership of Nvidia before, and of course it's hugely index fund based. I mean, in the old days of CJ. Lawrence said, your Denny it was individual stocks. You actually know perhaps what you were buying your Denny index funds? Is it made our thinking sloppy.

Speaker 4

Well, it's you know, I have a kind of a realistic view of things, and my motto wants something like this is it is what it is. The ETFs are here to stay. I think you can certainly argue that they've kind of mucked up valuation because if somebody says, you know, I want to be in the market, and all they do is jump into the s and P five hundred, they are contributing to the high valuation of the Magnificent seven because it's so concentrated. But it is

still a market. There's still plenty of people who can trade it one way or the other, and so I think the market is still efficient. Paul, get one worry in here. Max needs this morning walk exactly.

Speaker 5

Hey, yeah, talk to us about the US dollar here. The Bloomberg dollar innex is down still about nine percent from its high earlier in the year.

Speaker 6

What do you make of that?

Speaker 4

I think I'm getting a sense that I'm just one of the only bulls left on the dollar. Let's put it this way.

Speaker 3

I'm one of the only.

Speaker 4

Strategists looking at the dollar. That isn't it the bearish There's so much bearish talk about the dollar. And yet when you look at the Treasury data on monthly net capital inflows the past twelve both through June, we had a record inflow into the US equity market by foreigners that's on a net basis of over six hundred billion dollars. And you look at all capital inflows, they were one

point seven trillion dollars over the past twelve months. So foreigners didn't get that that memo, that You're supposed to be selling the dollar and buying the euro, but that's what somebody's been doing that And I'm thinking that, technically speaking, were probably at the bottom of a of a channel that's still got an upward trend to it. So I'm not giving up on the dollar. I think it's still going to remain a vitally important currency.

Speaker 3

Edgar Denny, thank you so much.

Speaker 2

Just thrilled with your effort for Edgear Denny's important nodes. Go to your Denny Research. We greatly appreciate it.

Speaker 3

Stay with us.

Speaker 7

More from Bloomberg Surveillance coming up after this.

Speaker 1

You're listening to the Bloomberg Surveillance podcast. Catch us live weekday afternoons from seven to ten am Eastern Listen on Apple Karplay and Android Otto with the Bloomberg Business app, or watch us live on YouTube.

Speaker 2

We are strong here at the end of August forget about the summer. Dildos Henry out to Trey's wanders in the Door and joins us here for an extended conversation. Okay, if you go to eight sources, there's what you do with VEDA partners. I look at Amy Walter summing it up at the political report. The Jerry Mander uproar is about, so what will Latino voters do? Who's winning the high ground for twenty six and twenty eight with Latino voters.

Speaker 8

I don't know that there's a high ground to be one right now, but there definitely is a regret trade on the Trump side, and you're seeing a migration, which is very normal for any majority party.

Speaker 9

To come back.

Speaker 8

So I wouldn't say that Democrats are winning per se, but Trump is not continuing to win.

Speaker 2

Do you look at the multiple state Jerrymander debate and say I have a winner or is it an unknown unknown?

Speaker 8

I think it has to be a permanent state of wartime, and I think that these gerrymandering redistricting cases are going to be a constant source of what we see as long as the two parties remain as competitive as they are. When you have margins that are this slim in the house, you kind of have to keep up with the Joneses, and so whatever Republicans do, Democrats are going to do, and vice versa.

Speaker 5

Henry, it it seemed like the market, at least the equity markets, to put the trade concerns kind of in a river mirror. But then I see President Trump announcing major tariff on furniture, So I forgot all about that sector stuff that could be material. Talk to us about like what's going on at the sector level, because I thought all this was in the rearview mirror.

Speaker 8

Yeah, I think the whole street would like it to be in the rear view mirror. But I honestly, and I know this is a lot to say, I think the second half of this year is going to be more volatile on tariffs than the first half of this year. And that's because as soon as this week, if not in the next couple weeks, the Federal Circuit Court of Appeals has been to rule on whether the President has the authority to maintain these AIPA tariffs, which is where we're getting two point seven trillion.

Speaker 9

Dollars worth of revenue happens.

Speaker 8

Well, it's widely anticipated that the courts are going to side with the Court of International Trade, which determined unanimously that Trump does not have the authority to impose these tariffs.

So what must happen thereafter is the President has to pivot to Section two thirty two and three zero one tariffs, which is where the furniture announcement came from So for clients, what I've said for the last couple of weeks now is watch to see if the administration starts to launch new investigations on a sector basis, And they launched two

last week win turbines and furniture. And it's because the Department of Justice is aware that they're very likely to lose this case and the entire IEPA structure will be upending.

Speaker 3

So is the simplistic phrase, it doesn't go to the Supreme Court?

Speaker 9

It doesn't, it does?

Speaker 3

It will?

Speaker 9

I mean that's the expectation if they choose to take it up, Yes, which they will.

Speaker 5

I mean, the Trump and the administration they're on a winning streak here. I mean, they've got tons of momentum. It just feels like, so why wouldn't they take everything to the Supreme Court.

Speaker 8

They're certainly going to try. They're obviously telegraphing that this is going to be the biggest disaster since the nineteen twenties if they don't have this continued tariff authority, which is ironic because obviously that's the last time we had tariffs of this magnitude in the first place. But the administration is definitely prepared to go to the Supreme Court, and they're very likely to lose at the Court of Appeals. And it becomes is this a constitutional legal case or

is it more about politics? And that's where you're winning sort of argument comes in.

Speaker 5

So, I mean, I guess investors here we should not get too complacent. Is that kind of what we're saying here? No, because the stock market's setting all time highs here and it seems again the market seems so discounted that risk here a little bit.

Speaker 8

Well, I think the number one thing I'd say is that when Powell says we could see tariffs be a one and done kind of event, think about what's happening. We're getting deminimus changed for I don't know the fourth, fifth, sixth.

Speaker 9

Time this week.

Speaker 8

We're getting fifty percent tires put on India. Now we're having additional tires put on furniture. Those tariffs are going on countries that we already have fifty percent TIFFs on, whether.

Speaker 9

It's India, China, Vietnam.

Speaker 8

I mean, the sector analysts are the ones that are really going to struggle for the back half this year.

Speaker 2

What is Henrietta Tres's inside story on the body language from a collective White House. The perception is it's all about President Trump. I get that, But are the cabinet members and the advisors are they working?

Speaker 4

Is one.

Speaker 8

I think it's everything everywhere, all at once. If you are a cabinet secretary for Defense or the IRS or Treasury or wherever, find an issue that you can seize on and blow it out of the water, whatever you can do to draw attention to whatever your issue is of the day. We're looking for all news items, all headlines at all times.

Speaker 5

Midterms, I don't know, it's a year away. What's the current thinking about midterms?

Speaker 8

Heare current thinking is basically the default to conventional wisdom, which is that on average, the majority party loses twenty four seats in the House. And I think Democrats are more and more excited about the opportunities that they have in the United States Senate with Sheret Brown and Ohio, with Tom Tillis dropping out in North Carolina, seeing Susan Collins in Maine, they launched a new candidate in the

last couple of weeks. Everybody's excited, ready to get into the election probably be a pretty high turned out event.

Speaker 9

So do you feel that the Senate's in play barely?

Speaker 8

Yeah, want to be too optimistic about it. I would anticipate that Republicans are still the majority next year.

Speaker 9

And in the House, I think the House should flip.

Speaker 8

Just statistically, they should flip by anywhere between you know, five and twenty five seats.

Speaker 3

Take us back to Civix one on one, What does that mean for the president?

Speaker 8

That means indictments, That means all day, every day, oversight, investigation, subpoenas for every cabinet, secretary, every official. You'll usually see massive turnover in an administration in that scenario, but Trump's life gets very uncomfortable, which is obviously why they're trying so hard to redistrict Texas for example.

Speaker 2

Well, you're so savvy at this, and Paul's got eighteen questions I should cut in by hand. Is he a lame duck the first Wednesday of November twenty twenty six?

Speaker 3

Yeah?

Speaker 9

Absolutely.

Speaker 8

If Democrats win the House the second they're sworn in, over it's over.

Speaker 9

Yeah.

Speaker 8

But you know, in this administration, he's doing so much with tariffs and executive actions that even though he's already a lame duck president, already the last administration that he'll have. It's, you know, guns blazing all the way, no shortage of activity.

Speaker 5

So is there any sense that the Democratic Party needs a just a fundamental redo to really challenge not just President Trump here, but you know, maybe the President Trumps supporters, that the MAGA supporters, and just that that that branch of the Republican Party which seems to be in such control of that party. Is there sense that the Democratic Party needs a complete rebrand?

Speaker 9

Absolutely?

Speaker 8

And I think they're having that fight, and they keep launching new little child balloons.

Speaker 9

Something's got to stick, but they're trying.

Speaker 3

Henrietta Trees with a.

Speaker 2

Saveta partner, thrilled to ever in the studio here to get your last week of the summer started futures at negative twenty, the Vicks of fourteen level pulls back fifteen point one four.

Speaker 3

But there is a cadence in August cadence to it right now, a lot of good economic data coming up this week. How's the mayor?

Speaker 2

Yes? Is there an the national interest in the mayor race of New York City? Mister momma DONI I guess trouble work in the bar this weekend.

Speaker 8

I saw that I don't think I could bench one hundred and thirty five. I'm pretty sure that's not what I trained for. But yeah, no, I think that there's a lot of interest because of the attention that it's captured in New York City and the number of you know, extremely high net worth, very involved social advocates in the finance world even that really want to see this race go in a different direction. When I go to client meetings and I'll be doing that all week, we talk

about it a lot. People feel very intently about it and making sure that there's some other direction.

Speaker 9

People get excited.

Speaker 5

All right, it's September. I don't have to worry about my government shutting down. Soon's what's going on in Washington when the folks come back from their recess.

Speaker 9

Yeah, I do think we have to worry about a shutdown.

Speaker 8

I'm at twenty five percent ons that we shut down on October first.

Speaker 9

That's really high for me.

Speaker 8

I'm usually fade that whole noise, and I'm at five percent ordinarily.

Speaker 9

But this year, to your exact point about.

Speaker 8

Democrats not having a message, Chuck Schumer got you know, steamrolled for not shutting the government down when he had the chance. In the first quarter of this year, and I think this is the next best opportunity. It also serves to gum up the works for the majority party, so the minority generally likes to have really short lived crs.

Speaker 9

When we get back, we're.

Speaker 8

Going to debate something called the National Defense Authorization Act, which is roughly nine hundred and thirty billion dollars of spending on defense, which will complicate you know, the FEDCE nomination of Stephen Miron. There's a lot that they need to do.

Speaker 3

It goes through the pacifics of this.

Speaker 2

Again, if the Democrats are in the minority, they can affect a government shutdown.

Speaker 9

Yes, exactly, yeah to our global audience. Sure.

Speaker 8

So the senator, the Republican senators have fifty three seats, and you need sixty votes to keep the government open. And it's usually this very contentious debate, and everybody hems and haws and fights about pork barrel spending and you know, individual military bases in their distracting. You get a very protracted, long debate about how to fund the Department of Education

or Justice or commerce. And the minority party is in a position of power because they're going to need to deliver probably what will be ten to twenty seats, especially on the House side. Hakiem Jeffries is going to be responsible for delivering the bulk of the votes for whatever government funding bill they passed.

Speaker 9

He doesn't want to do that right well, which which is why you shut down.

Speaker 5

But I mean, but do I want to who gets the blame for shutdown there? Is it the majority party or is it the Democrats who in fact did not deliver the votes.

Speaker 8

Historically the president takes the blame. The longest shut down in history was under President Trump. You shut it down for thirty five days in that war with Pelosi over Christmas. It's usually the Republican Party just because they have been the ones who were willing to shut it down. Democrats generally believe that the government is here to do good, so they like to keep it open.

Speaker 9

But we'll see if that holds this time around.

Speaker 2

Have you been in Washington for the National Guard? Do you have an anecdotal observation?

Speaker 8

I have not seen it, not live. I hear a lot about it. My friends are all there, but I haven't been there since it got launched.

Speaker 3

No, you're on recess, that's.

Speaker 5

I mean, it just seems like the Trump administrations on a role. Yeah, any way you look at it, He's winning almost everywhere, in every facet.

Speaker 10

Is that the feeling?

Speaker 3

Yeah?

Speaker 2

And Greg Vaillier's note this morning, he's piercing. He says there's a complete underestimation of support the nation is giving him for some of these topics.

Speaker 3

Is that true?

Speaker 8

That is absolutely true. I mean I lived down in Louisiana. I was out in the Marsh and grand Isle all weekend. I mean, you see Trump flags everywhere you go, Trump flags for twenty twenty eight.

Speaker 9

The support is very real.

Speaker 8

Even as they're paying the tariffs, even as prices remain high at grocery stores, they do not care. And all these opportunities to win are well translated.

Speaker 3

This is a joy.

Speaker 2

Come back again when you're on recess. Henrietta Trees with his holst of Veda Park and just lover work.

Speaker 3

Stay with us.

Speaker 7

More from Bloomberg Surveillance coming up after this.

Speaker 1

This is the Bloomberg Surveillance Podcast. Listen live each weekday starting at seven am Eastern on Applecarplay and Android Auto with the Bloomberg Business app. You can also watch us live every weekday on YouTube and always on the Bloomberg terminal the.

Speaker 2

UNADI Goldberg Joints US now head of the US Rates Strategy TD Securities. First thing I did this morning. It was mentioned repeatedly at Jackson Hole. The Japanese thirty year twenty year gives way, price down, yield higher, The United Kingdom thirty year guilt a new high, new recent high, going back decades and decades, price down, yield up.

Speaker 3

Can the same thing happen here?

Speaker 11

Yeah, I mean certainly could. I mean, it's why you've got the US Treasury talking about issuing a lot more at the front end. You know, they're not looking to issue a lot more thirty years. In fact, I'm surprised that Sexuary Vestment hasn't pulled out that trump card, which is basically threatening to decrease the size of twenty and

thirty year auction sizes. That's something that they could undertake if they feel like supplying demands out of balance like it is in the UK in Japan, and those governments are already talking about issuing fewer long end bonds.

Speaker 5

So we heard Fed Cherman Jpal definitely go a little bit dubbish last week. How do you think the Fed's going to proceed with their easing cycle. Is it twenty five here, wait and see how the data is another twenty five, wait and see how.

Speaker 3

The data is.

Speaker 11

Cautiously, I would say, you know, it's interesting. This cutting cycle sort of breaks the mold of most cutting cycles. Usually it's you know, escalator up, elevator down on rates. This is quite the opposite. It's elevator up, escalator down. You know, they're very cautiously cutting rates. I think they do it very very gradually, you know TD we're thinking September, October, December cuts, then switching to a quarterly pace. I think we usually when they start to go, they want to

go more than once. They know one twenty five basepain cut doesn't do much. But I think they're going to keep a very close eye on the data. If the data doesn't tell them that they should be cutting, they can pause, they can skip meetings. This is going to be a strange one.

Speaker 2

Is it in the market or will there be a shock in bonds? Is this unfolds like the shock we saw inequities on Friday?

Speaker 11

Well, it's eighty eighty five percent price or September right now, the pricing for the rest of the year, there's about thirty five basis points or so priced in, so call it fifty sixty percent of each of September, October, and December. The market knows that it doesn't know, and that pricing

is going to get refined as we get closer. The problem is we're all looking at the same data prints over and over and over again, and every time we get print, the market adjusts and then we move on to the next one.

Speaker 2

If your scenario works out, will there be a shortage of longer dated paper?

Speaker 11

I think we're far from that, To be quite honest, I think there's We're far from a shortage of long data paper. I think that's why the Treasury is issuing in the front end. They view the demand as being one higher there. It'll bring rates down, but it'll you know, what's known as bull steep in the curve, will bring all rates lower, front end rates faster, the long end will simply lag. You know, I don't think long end rates go higher, but I think they come down.

Speaker 3

I have real trouble with this jargon, like I've flunked it three times. In the CFA is at a bull steepener? In what way is that bull meaning? Good.

Speaker 11

So all interest rates lower, but the front end really leading the way. So you'll have kind of five year and under rates really dropping down much faster because they're responding to FED rate cuts. The long end will come down as well, just because of term structure of interest rates, but it'll come down at a much lower pace, so you'll still have longer dated rates relatively elevated.

Speaker 3

I listened to that point and I still couldn't pass it on the exact.

Speaker 5

I think I think I got it. As an equity guy, I think I got it. Ten year treasury yielding four point two eighty percent?

Speaker 9

What do you think that is?

Speaker 6

Year end?

Speaker 11

We're thinking four percent by your end, so we're a little bit lower, not too much. We've got, you know, three rate cuts penciled in, like I said, and that's the thing. Most of that will be in the very front end of the curve, So five years and under, I think that's where a lot of investors are hiding out at the moment. Nobody really wants six cent out into twenty and thirty year space. But there's been some defying. You saw the twenty year auction last week went off

fairly well. You know, there was a concern that nobody would want to take it. Now you're starting to see a little bit of difying depending on the valuations.

Speaker 5

So the Fed are they focusing more on the labor market at this point and feeling like inflation's kind of in check or is that how they're thinking about it.

Speaker 6

That's really the shift to jackson Hole.

Speaker 11

If you look at the minutes of the last meeting, which came out last week, and then we're instantly dated because they thought the onus is really on the inflation data and that was the risk Powell's remarks, as jackson Hole basically said, well, now the labor market's at risk. Inflation is not quite as much of a risk as we thought. It is still very much a risk. Let's

be frank. The Fed is not committing to anything. They're watching everything, but it's really on the data to dissuade them from in September rather than persuading them to.

Speaker 6

Cut in September.

Speaker 3

Wait, I don't know.

Speaker 5

I just see like all these teriffs, including just the furniture thing that came out of nowhere. For at least for me, that kind of feels like inflation to me seems to be a real concern and I'd be maybe sitting on the sidelines, but I guess the pressure is for them to do something.

Speaker 11

Well, really, what really matters here is services inflation. We know goods inflation is going to be hit. We know, you know, all these trade disruptions are going to hit that good side. If that starts to translate into services, So your barber starts to increase the price of haircuts because the razors are more expensive. Right, that would be troublesome because that really feeds through into the economy in unpredicted ways.

Speaker 6

They don't know yet. The next one is going to be a little bit hot, but we're expecting that to calm down a little bit over the next couple months.

Speaker 2

One final question, TD is Toronto Dominion wonderful? Great to seats that make believe that garden you know, the TD, like it's the TD arena, right.

Speaker 3

Yeah, the food is awesome.

Speaker 2

I gave it speech up there last year and went in and like the food is like the dive divers the leaf's loss.

Speaker 3

You know it's appropriate. Canedy Are Canadians buying less US full faith and credit paper?

Speaker 11

Interestingly enough, no, we did see foreign investors generally shedding US holdings back in the April data. The data since then has basically showing you a full bown rebound. No one's really you know, that sell America trade that everyone was talking about for months and months, it's not really going on in it is the hedge America trade. That's what's happening right now. So you hedge the foreign exchange

component of it. You still buy the assets, but you realize the dollar is probably going to continue to offten a little bit, and you hedge that dollar exposure.

Speaker 3

That kid McCormick at TED Securities, I don't know. I mean, are you guys modeling a week dollar?

Speaker 6

We're thinking of a slightly weaker dollar, so about three to five percent lower by your end. You're hedging out your trade exactly.

Speaker 2

That's too much thinking for one. This has been brilliant. Seriously, Goodnightni Goldberg. He is with Ted Security. He's talked her on a dominion. Can't say enough about his work on full faith you credit.

Speaker 3

Stay with us.

Speaker 7

More from Bloomberg Surveillance coming up after this.

Speaker 1

You're listening to the Bloomberg Surveillance podcast. Catch us Live weekday afternoons from seven to ten am Eastern Listen on Applecarplay and Android Otto with the Bloomberg Business app, or watch us live on YouTube.

Speaker 5

Got some newspapers here with Lisa Matteo. Tom, I mean it's been I mean people just want this forget about all this stuff. We do want newspapers, Lisa Matteo and.

Speaker 3

Then stock Mores. It's just too much. We have to talk to man. Yeah, continue newspapers, what do you go, let's go. H.

Speaker 9

This one's from Business Insider.

Speaker 10

Okay, so it's saying a Harvard professor he's talking out about how AI is.

Speaker 9

Doing more harm than good in education.

Speaker 10

So this was a really interesting read. His name is Alex Green, and he's telling Business Insider that it's undermining the relationship between teachers and students. And the reason why is because it's saying there's this loss of fundamental communication skills like knowledge and reasoning. Like you have some students complaining that they write this twenty page paper and then all they get back is like these tiny little comments

and then a mediocre grade. And they're saying that teachers are using chat GPT to review their their twenty page paper get the comments.

Speaker 9

So that's one side.

Speaker 10

Then you have the other side too, or it says that you know, the students are losing communication skills, but he also points out another factor that AI could start hurting their career opportunities too, and he said it's frustrating for him because it's his job, it's a teacher, to help them get jobs.

Speaker 9

So that's yeah.

Speaker 5

I don't know how this whole it's a giv.

Speaker 3

Education.

Speaker 5

Yeah, I don't know how they're going to manage it.

Speaker 2

I find it an immense value. But I see the kids, including various offspring I'm identified with.

Speaker 3

You know, I'm sorry, they're just not working like we work.

Speaker 10

I guess the creative aspect of it you kind of lose because you just type it in and say, hey, tell me to do this too.

Speaker 3

You got three chapters. By Monday morning, there will be a quiz and that's gone. Yeah, I don't know.

Speaker 9

Yeah, it's a different it is.

Speaker 10

Okay, this next one, I'm not sure if you've seen the movie, but a big milestone for an animated musical that was released by Netflix.

Speaker 9

Take a listen.

Speaker 10

Okay, that is Capop Demon Hunters. Okay, Ken Faliot knows all the moves to the song. Okay, So just in case you missed it, it's about this fictional female pop group. They're facing off against a rival boy band who were actually demons, so that's a competept behind. It a debut on Netflix Bake back in like June twentieth, and it did so well that Netflix decided to release it this past Saturday and Sunday in theater as a singalong. Okay, it was the top the box office in North America,

if you can believe it. Variety says expected to gross up to twenty million dollars over the weekend from that. And in case you miss it, the singalong version is actually coming back to Netflix starting today. So they're really like, really, you guys know what's going off of this. Let's it's K pop Demon Hunters.

Speaker 3

We'll do their music tomorrow.

Speaker 10

But it is, but the soundtrack top Billboard and Spotify charts and it's not a real group.

Speaker 5

Now, I mean, what is the demo here?

Speaker 6

Say young kids?

Speaker 9

It's it's young kids. I think teens. Yeah, Like my sister said, her kids are into it. My daughter's not, but some some are all right. But it's a huge, huge hit, quick one. Okay.

Speaker 10

A lot of stories about the housing market, right, so this is a growing trend. More buyers are asking to stay overnight at a home before buying it. Yeah, they're like a sleepover. Okay, it's like a test drive. Okay, there are there. It could be a price for it. One buyer agreed to pay two months to one hundred and fifty thousand dollars each month that he stayed because it included the staff, to the cars that were on

the property, that kind of thing. But some people just do an overnight for free, and they're saying that this is becoming like a real thing that people want to start giving a little the house.

Speaker 5

Short state, because I'm very close to the train tracks and it's not the sound of the train itself, it's the dude blowing the horn on the train.

Speaker 10

So if you would have known that beforehand, Okay, see see you learn these by staying in the house.

Speaker 3

Lisa Mateo, thank you so much. That was a golden report.

Speaker 1

This is the Bloomberg Surveillance podcast, available on Apple, Spotify, and anywhere else you get your podcasts. Listen live each weekday seven to ten am Eastern on Bloomberg dot com, the iHeartRadio app, tune In, and the Bloomberg Business app. You can also watch US live every weekday on YouTube and always on the Bloomberg terminal.

Speaker 3

Inga had pried

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