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We start strong with Frankly Folks. The most important interview of the day. Acid allocators are Diamond does and every firm's got ten twenty thirty people loving. They want to get out there and allocate your assets. Steve chiveron is it federated federate inter medicine? He does it with a shocking clarity and directness. Are we over diversified right now? O wise?
One depends on where you're investing. I think in the US, I think investors are about right. I think being overweight the US. I think that home bio is actually appropriate right now. And I think the non US equity outperformance of the first half will prove to be relatively short lived.
I was in you say the worst is behind US.
Worst of the tariffun certainty. Yeah, I agree, I think it is, and I think you're in a de escalation phase there. I wasn't surprised by the presidents kind of slapping around of Europe on Friday. There was a little bit of complacency I think, both amongst the negotiating parties and the market that you know, once he had de escalated, that was it and you could kind of slow walk it. So he needed to kind of shock the system a little bit. I also wasn't surprised when that had its
intended effect and he pushed back out to July. But Tom talking to investors outside the United States, they were shockingly under allocated to the US. You know, you have folks on the mainland with maybe only twenty percent in US equities, which is sixty percent, seventy percent of the global market cap of the kind of MSCI world or MSCA country world. And so I think there's still buyers
to come into this market. And I think the most likely outcome here is a slow Sole crushing grind higher in US equities that will pull the skeptics in over the course of the year.
Sol Crushing Grind that was on Everston Lincoln Palmer's third album, Crazy Crushing.
There's a reserve going to do here, given some of the economic data we're seeing here and some of the I guess some of the uncertainty that from the tariff discussions.
You know, look, I find some of the rhetoric uncertainty out of the Federal Reserve a little surprising. I get wanting to be patient. I think that's right. I think if you think thoughtfully about any impact of tariffs, the impacts are much more severe on growth than they are inflation. And I think you have an economy that has slowed in a consumer that's under some pressure. So I hear them talk about patients, I think they're going to cut this year. They just don't know it yet.
You have an advantage of adults, it federated. Are people old and grizzled? I mean, you're doing asset allocation and that and your clear memo is by American, by technology. Is that what your portfolio managers are doing.
That's what we did this cycle. I mean, you know, we said at the beginning of the year I was on this show that we were strapping ourselves to the mast. We weren't going to get caught in the emotional you know, turmoil, and that we wanted to add to equities through the distress. And we did and where we added Tom was in large cap growth. You got the mag seven and the large cap Growth index somewhere around six multiple points below
it's three year average. You don't pass on a six multiple point discount with companies that are generating the kind of cash flow and growth that those companies are. And so that was the buy this time around. I'll tell you I still think and I know it's been waiting for goodou, but I think the second half story is going to be ones where small caps and cyclicals assert themselves as well.
So what do we we had the U that downgraded, I mean, does that kind of call into any question recession risk here? I mean? Or we're just kind of a slowing economy grind higher.
As goes the US consumer goes the US economy, and as goes the US labor market goes the US consumer.
You know.
And here's the thing, and here's why I don't buy into the kind of recession views. Companies had a wonderful excuse if they wanted it to lay off workers last month. They had terriff uncertainty, they had growth slowed downs, They could have slashed their guidance.
They didn't.
They pulled it in some cases, and they didn't take it. And I think this is the lesson of twenty twenty when folks, you know, companies fired folks and then it took them three years and thirty percent more to hire them back. And so unless you see that labor market break, I don't think you have recession on the table. I'd also say Paul, that you know there's this there's this wonderful romanticism around the bond vigilantes, and that's what's pushing
yields up. But that doesn't explain German bunniel. That doesn't explain Japanese government bond yields. And if that really is a story of three separate bond market issues, would you rather buy the bond when they're raising debt to buy bullets, or would you rather buy the US treasury where they're raising debt to stimulate.
I don't care. The reason we hedge in is I want you to talk about it is a new way. I did this the other day at a fabulous meeting with your good competitor PIMCO, and we talked about all these new derivative instruments. Federated and your good competitor, PIMCOH Fidelity and others are incredibly vanilla you avoid the derivative plague.
Right now, we got lots of buy right strategies. Everybody's got a buffer thing going in that tell me about asset allocation and the solution being all these gimmicky investments.
Yeah.
Look, I think for very specific client needs, whether it's enhancing income or you've got real risk aversion, you know, derivatives can play a role over the long run in terms of building sustainable, quiet wealth, if you will. The story is about staying invested. I mean everything around that
is just behavioral. It's about staying invested. So the question is how do you understand the client, how do you understand what their what their risk tolerance is, and then build them a long term asset allocation and then be tactical enough tom that you don't whips all your way out of returns, but you provide the client with enough comfort to say, Okay, we're not just sitting here blindly. Because at the end of the day, the story is
really simple. Just because it's difficult doesn't mean that it's complicated. Investing is difficult because it's hard to stay invested, it's hard to stay unemotional, but it's not nearly as complicated as we make it out to be. That's just us making ourselves feel better that it's hard.
See how he gets he just ramps it up there. Sure he gets a totally mental engage like stand up. That was brilliant. I think we're going to use that on single best idea to Steve shiveron Thank you so much with feeder airms. What you just heard there, folks, Karanzi.
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He is definitive as a public service of the nation. Nicholas Burns joins us now with this work across our State Department, our diplomacy for decades, culminating and extended to her duty as ambassador to China. We welcome Nick Burns of Wellesley, Massachusetts this morning.
Nick.
What I loved great about your eight day work week in China was there you would be working doing the diplomatic thing in Beijing, and then you get on the train here's a caption. Folks, most people in China. Folks like me, we go to Hong Kong, Shanghai, to blocks of Beijing, and we say we went to China. Nick Burns has done further. We crossed the Yellow River at Hanan at one hundred and ninety one miles an hour
on the high speed train. What do we most get wrong, Nick Burns, about the inner China that you experienced, Well.
Good morning, Tom, and it's great pleasure to be with you after a long, long stretch. You know, China is a multifacet society. On the one hand, you have the Communist Party of China, major competitor of the United States and military, tech, economic, human rights ground. So I had a you know, kind of a combative relationship at times with that government, and we had to be aggressive in
holding the line. On the other hand, the other job of being an ambassador is not just to the government of China, to the to the one point four billion people of China. And I found the Chinese people outside the Communist Party to be extraordinarily entrepreneurial, to be very very hard working, creative, innovative, and very civil when you met them. My wife, Liby and I didn't encounter any direct anti americanism when you're talking to the Chinese people.
I encountered a lot of it when I work with the government of China, and so we decided that, you know, we had to travel in China to get to know party secretaries, governors, business leaders, universities, and we went most often by high speed rail because they have a magnificent trains and that's how you get to know people on the train and see the countryside and get to understand the country.
Do we have a knowledge behind those red doors in Beijing? Is it like when we were with the Russians before the collapse where our intelligence was lacking. Is there's a mystery to ji in the government or do we actually have a handle on what's going on? Well, I'd say two things.
First, you know, we had daily contact with the government of China, and you I spend a lot of time with a Chinese leadership, with ministers, for instance, and so you do get to know them. But the party, the Communist Party, which is so powerful right now, is very good at being opaque and Chinese politicians, political leaders do not reveal the private side of them of their lives as they do in the United States and most.
Of the rest of the world.
So there is a lack of transparency there and sometimes it's a guessing game. But we did our best, obviously and working with them to get a sense of what their motivations were. You know, we were as I said before, I figured about eighty percent of my job was competing with China on behalf of the United States, and maybe twenty percent was working on climate change and working on fentanyl, which is a critical issue for US and on the
cooperative side. And so this is not an easy relationship for the United States.
Nicholas, how do you think that the Chinese government wants to proceed with the US? Do they want to engage with the West or are they comfortable? And what's kind of becoming I guess a new Cold war, certainly technological Cold war between China and the West. How do they want to approach it?
That's such a fascinating subject. On the one hand, given the fact that China has the world's largest export economy and manufacturing economy, they have to have ties with the United States, Japan, Korea, and Europe because that's the market for their economy and that keeps their GDP growth rate up, So there is a sense a part of China inc. Which wants to be integrated with the rest of the world.
But you're right. I mean what has emerged over the last several years is a very close strategic partnership between China and Russia and at times when they're on in North Korea as well, and that's a formidable set of countries. What they're trying to do, which Chijinping is trying to do, is offset the real strength of the United States in global competition, and that is that we have alliances in the East Asia with Japan, South Korea, the Philippines, Thailand,
in Australia. These are treaty alliances and that gives us a weight and leverage over the Chinese that they don't have, and so they've tried to offset it with these other relationships. But Russia and North Korea and Iran are not the economic powers that Japan. Certainly is that India is as a partner of the United States. So I think that's our big advantage. Maybe that's the number one lesson that
I learned or relearned as ambassador to China. I'd also been ambassador to NATO that we have to count on our allies, and we have to be respectful of our allies and build those relationships. That's the best way I think to deter the Chinese.
Well, that does not perhaps is the view of the Trump administration in terms of how the Trump administration is treating US allies. Here does President she in the Chinese government view that is potentially an opening to weaken the US, I guess influence globally.
I think they do. You'll remember after April second, when the President made his President Trump made his major tariff announcements, the Chinese were very quick to say, to the Japanese and South Koreans in particular, let's all get together the three of US, China, South Korea, and Japan against the United States. Of course, Japan and South Korea would not have it, but they're seeking. The Chinese are seeking those openings.
And as the United States in a way diminishes our faith in our alliances, the Chinese see that's a real vulnerability for the United States. As we demolished USAID, the US Agency for International Development, I think was a major mistake to fire eight thousand people in two weeks. That doesn't make much sense. The Chinese swooped in and began to tell countries South, listen, if the United States is not going to work with you or help you, we will.
And so we're in a battle for global influence against China, there's no question, and we need a usaid, We need our alliances to be compared in that battle.
We continue with Nicholas Burne's ambassador to China here up until the recent months, with all of his work in American diplomacy as well. We all await a book. I'm sure it's coming out here in two or three years, and we can find a free time to do it, Nick Burns, just as simple as I can. As you mentioned allies earlier, is Vietnam our ally?
I think Vietnam not in the strict sense of the word. When I use the word ally as a diplomat, it's a treaty ally, a military ally like the NATO countries or Japan. Vietnam's a partner, and it's a country that the years China has had to live next door to China for all of its history, has a difficult, complicated relationship with China. So Vietnam wants to be our military partner, but at the same time, like all the other countries
of Southeast Asia, China's their lead trade partner. They have to live with China, and so the Vietnamese are engaged like the Malaysians and the Singaporeans and the end it's kind of a balancing act between the United States and China.
So how will this play out in the you know, you can call it non multilateral, pseudo bilateral, unilateral Trump approach to McKinley trade history, I mean, I mean, I don't understand how we battle the natural leakages of a bilateral agreement. As trade goes to Vietnam, trade goes to Malaysia, trade goes to Mexico for that matter, that's a given right.
Well, you know, I think there's a little bit of a contradiction I would say in President Trump's policy. On the one hand, President Trump is right to use tariffs as a way to try to push the Chinese to be more fair minded in the way they treat American companies because they mistreat American companies. The Chinese and President Biden put major tariffs on one hundred percent on Chinese
evs for instance, on China just a year ago. But the problem is when President Trump went out and put those one hundred and forty five percent tariffs on China. He also put tariffs on Japan, South Korea, European Union, Canada, and Mexico. Those are our natural allies. They all have the same problems with China as we do on trade. I think it would have been a better strategy to we have really forced on China and had some and
coalesced with the Japanese, South Koreans and Europeans. It would have given us more weight at the negotiating table with the Jenese.
Nick Burns, I've got to ask you about my essay of the year three years ago. You were off in some train somewhere having a long weekend with the panda's outside check do Kai. I'm not going to butcher the pronunciation Nick Kaiji c Ai xia acclaim Chinese dissident wrote for Foreign Affairs magazine and essay the weakness of Jijingping.
I was thunderstruck Nick Burns by that essay and the idea of almost the thugism, the simplicity of the Chinese government are they what's the process you witnessed as ambassador of the parochialism of the Xi regime.
Well, I remember that essay as well, and I was impressed by it. I would say this, Dung Chow Ping's great insight after Miles's death half century ago was that China could not afford one man rule. Mao nearly ruined China with the Culture Revolution, and so Dung practice collective leadership.
That's all gone.
Now China's back to one man rule, and the one man is Shixin Ping. And on the one hand, he's experienced, he's obviously very smart, he's very ambitious, he's very strategicly directed in terms of Chinese power. But on the other hand, he surrounded himself with people who have worked for him in the past. There are no peers around him. No one's perfect, and so you see Shixin Ping making some
considerable mistakes. I'll just cite one. He went after the Chinese tech intre in twenty twenty one twenty twenty three, so that a lot of the tech entrepreneurs who made China wealthy, like Jack ma of Alibama, were banished from the country. Jack mad lives in Tokyo. So you see the weaknesses and some of these strategic eras because you don't have people around him to say you know, that might not be the best thing to do to question him.
And I think, you know, as I've participated in our own government, we're always better when you have people around the American president who can say, you know, mister President, I know you want to go down that road roade A, but road B is going to be the easier place root for you. That doesn't happen in China nowadays, and
you know, it's kind of a closed leadership. He does travel a lot, but he's never lived overseas, he's never been in business, so you see some of the limitations in Chinese decision making.
So where does a Commnis party under Ji go from here? I mean, he's been in office for as long as many people can remember. What's the consensus about how the leadership in China plays out? How much longer does he stay in power? Does he enjoy the support of the people, what's next?
Well, you know again, Dung Chaoping's practice was that general Secretary is of the Commonist Party, the President of China would stay in office for no more than two five year terms, so ten years. And that was the case for forty years, and Chichin Ping is now well beyond that. My own impression is that he's probably president for life. He's a Since I'm sixty nine, I can say he's
a relatively young man at seventy one. But still, you know, when people get close to eighty, you know all bets are off in terms of health, and so you got to worry about well, you have to actually be concerned about stability when your leader gets older. And there's no root of secession, there's no transfer power prescribed in Chinese law. They're going to have to make up happens when xin Ping leaves power and how he leaves power.
Nicholas burns with us an extended conversation. We continue with him for a little bit more. Heir Paul swinging in time keen across the nation. Good morning, as we speak to our former ambassador of China. How he did his first diplomacy at the Duck Pond in Wellesley, Massachusetts a few years ago. What was your first day like, newly minted, four languages, fancy degrees and there you were You were not wearing bermuda shorts and socks in Mauritania, were you?
What was your first day like in Mauritania?
Well, referring to my first job overseas for the US government nineteen eighty forty five years ago in the Sahara Desert. I was an intern, hoping to then take the oath of office and become a full fledged diplomat. And so they sent me to this tiny outpost, New Walkshot, Mauritania, where we had a two person embassy, and I was the second person, you know, doing all the different jobs. And it was fascinating. I mean, I must say I had wanted to go in the US government in college
and grad school. And when you finally get in and you stand beside the American flag and you're there helping to preside over July fourth celebrations, there's an immense pride in serving our government. And I hope that you know, with all the attack federal government by Elon Musk and others, I hope people listening to us will know that the civils, the foreign service officers, the military officers, we all take an oath to the Constitution.
So what do you need? Nick Burns from Marco Rubio, here's a guy. Everybody adores him. He's one of the few people in Washington. It's not worth a gazillion dollars. Marco Ruby of Florida, he's serving in the crucible of the emotions of President Trump hour by hour. What is your counsel to, Marco Rubio for those kids starting out in the most coveted job in America.
That you can believe that young people who join and middle aged people the federal government are non partisan, take an oath to be nonpartisan. It's actually a law, the Hatch Act of nineteen fifty two. And I served across I served Republican presidents and Democratic presidents. I never asked any of my colleagues, hey, what party do you belong to,
because it would have been really inappropriate to that. And what bothers me about the mass firing of our civil servants in Washington is that there's somehow this suspicion that they're all Democrats and progressives, which is absolutely not the case. People just want to serve the country. So I do think, respectfully sectary Rubio and President Trump, they've really weakened the ability of the United States to put good people in the field on the military side, on the million side.
Paul, get one more question in here, but I forgot to tell you Paul Burns's people said, we can't ask about the red sox.
No, we don't.
Ask so Nick, just real quickly here, what's the view of the people you talk to outside of the US government, in foreign governments, what's their view of the US these days?
Well, I think, you know, there's a sense that the United States is withdrawing from I would say, what made us create our alliances. So people in NATO are really worried that the United States is no longer going to be.
The leader of NATO.
The Ukrainians are worried that We're going to leave them high and dry to face the Russian War a machine. The Japanese and Filipinos are wondering will the United States be there if China continues to press against their borders. And so I think the United States has become kind of a risk our government. It's the unpredictability of our government. The seesaw back and forth in terms of what the leader says, our leader says, and that worries me. I
you know, listen, I'm going to patriotic American. I want President Trump to succeed in the world. I want his government to succeed in the world. Who wouldn't if you're an American citizen, but I think there's a disquiet and uncertainty about sometimes the direction that our government is heading, in part the other terrorf issue.
Nick Burns, thank you so much generous time with us this morning. Investor Burns, of course to China and the Mauritania a few years ago.
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Paul and I both agreed we desperately need to talk to Jane Foley. She's at Rabobank. Absolutely definitive and cross currents of the foreign exchange market. Jane is a weaker dollar vector in place.
Well it would appear to be so. I mean, you know, it is going to be difficult for the Fed because the weekid dollar is a course inflationary. But what we appear still to have is an awful lot of investors really really evaluating those dollar trades, those po pro dollar trades really of the last few years when everyone was
very much of the with buy America. Right now, it seems that the theme for this year and it's still ongoing, is that people are reevaluating options elsewhere, whether or not that be defense in Europe or you know, Japan, and with the Japanese JGB market perhaps a little bit topsy turvy at the moment, but certainly Japanese assets have been you know, on the radar again of investors this year.
And I think the weaker dollar is just a mimicking of this commentary that we've been hearing, you know, quite a lot that you know, buy America. The story of the past few years has been really reevaluated.
Okay, Jimi and s sorry, taught me how to do this. I brought up Taiwan dollar, a boy, Korean Wan and sing dollar. I'm sorry, Jane. Those charts are elegant strong, Singapore strong, Taiwan strong. Career. What are the ramifications if they break break through to new currency strength versus the dollar.
Well, they don't necessarily want that, you know, this is that be of significant mover and executic pressure, you know, on their economies if that were the case. But certainly that's been an idea which has been very much caught up in you know, speculator's minds over the last few weeks. Clearly we do need to see some of the progress made on trade deals between the US and a variety of other countries for this type of speculation, you know, to be put to better at least to have, you know,
a little bit better of an anchor. So that's what we need to see. There's been a lot of speculation as to whether or not currencies are would form part of these trade deals, whether or not the weeker dollar that Trump has been talking about in previous years is going to be part of that, And that's what the market is is sort of a little bit frightened about.
But certainly, you know, I would have thought that if Trump wanted a week a dollar to make American experts cheaper, which has been part of his manager you know, for a long time, he would want that under his control. And and I think what we've seen recently this year is not a dollar weakening because you know, Trump wants it to weaken. It's been a dollar weekening because market investors have been reevaluating the value that they're now seeing
in US assets as opposed to assets elsewhere. And that's not necessarily what the treasure you want.
Well, I'm not going to sing dollar. This from the second week of April, it's been a five percent strengthening of Singapore dollar. It's a wicked elegant chart. I went to logs for Jane Foley. You know, that's the way we roll, and it's our two standard deviations strength here the trend is in place. Weaker US dollar.
Week or US dollar see that in a Bloomberg Dollar index are still plumbing some lows here, Jane. A lot of Americans are getting ready to come over to Europe for summer holiday. Here, they're not like in the euro here at one thirteen. How high can a euro go here?
Well, you know that of course is a big question. If we go back a month or so. There were some views out there thinking, oh, you know, your a dollar is a course you know for one twenty this year. I still think that one twenty is a fair way off. I mean, we've got to consider this from the ECB's perspective too, or from the Eurozone perspective. I mean, think about Germany. Yes, there was that loosening of the debt
breaker a couple of months ago. Yes, you know that really has reinvigorated investor interest and you know, defense, infrastructure etc. In the outlook for German growth in the coming years. But you know, the bundesbankers warn that Germany you could still see recession this year. Most big forecasters think that that boost to German growth won't start until next year. And we've still got the headwinds possibly of trade wars
coming through as well. So if Germany sees recession this year, well you know these heb definitely you don't want to see a Euro strengthening significantly. And I think if we did see the Euro, you know, ratcheting up at a pace from these sorts of levels, we could see a more duvish ECB to try and counter some of that move. So yes, we might see one twenty. I don't think
going to see it this year. Would we see it by the end of next year, well, certainly, colk, But that would, of course, we depend on how that growth engine starts to work in Germany and the rest of Europe too.
Boy, I got a lot of pounds sterling coins and script scrolling all away. You know, all all my jewors here too. It's up Tom, like eleven point four percent.
Is this is the folks, This is why you watch surveillance. Michael bar Lisa Matteo Paul. While you were yapping with Jane, I did what Jane does every day. I looked at an air mess tie. I go over to Paris. Yep, take United fifty seven, go over to Paris. And that bow tie right now is two hundred and forty euros. If it's one point fifteen, if it's one point one
point five, it's two hundred and seventy six dollars. And if it goes to one point two zero, Jane Foley knows it goes to two hundred and eighty eight dollars. That's real. I mean that is real money. That is twelve dollars increase because of Macron. There's no other way to put it. And get one more in here to Jane Fowley while I prep the tire, I'm not going to buy.
Yeah, I do not think so. So talk to us about the pound sterling, Jane, what's the story there?
Well, of course, we did see that stronger than expected CPI inflation data last week two, and we saw retail sales managing to a bit a bit be hit my
robust too than the market had expected. And of course, if we go back a couple of weeks before that we had the GDP data for the first quarter coming in a little bit more robust, and of course there's been the news that the UK did manage to sign a trade deal with the US and also in the same week with one in India as well, So there has been a fair amount of better than expected news
for the UK. I think that has given Sterling a little bit of a fillip and we see that and setting in in cable, you know, above the recent range, and so Sterling's had some decent news. Now that's not to say that we are not going to have those headwinds. We know that growth this year and it's still going to be difficult in June. We've got the Chancellor again. She has to do a spending review in June.
That's going to be.
Tough because UK dad is so high. So it's not all plain sailing, but Sterling certainly has seen some benefit recently.
Have you recovered from Tottenham winning the Europa Jane? I mean it was too much.
Well we had the Crystal Palace winning a big match. Did you see that it's my local team. Well that's just a road from me, so that was pretty good.
Have you watched ted Lasso or they filmed the TV show at Crystal Palace.
I didn't see that though, so much to watch for me.
You have to watch ted Lasso. You'll love it. They filmed in Crystal Palace. They're you know, I mean Crystal Palace one on What's Next? World's going to a mess? Jane Fowley, thank you so much, greatly appreciate.
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Huge response from the Hendry out of Trace is on let's bring it in with Veda partners here on the madness in Washington between the left, the right, the center, and four other flavors. So well, Henrietta, quickly here. You were on a number of times ago and you said sixty three congressional seats are in play. Do you stand by that or is it a different number?
If I'm not mistaken, it's actually sixty nine. That's based off of the Florida First and Florida.
Six special elections that happened two months ago or so, and it puts at risk basically any district that's our plus five orient Jeffrey's view R plus ten or more.
Very cool. Let's move on just as the new slow is extraordinary. I think America, including Tom Keane, is ignorant about the nuances of the GOP Senate. We love to parse the House. We know that story. How divided is the Senate for the senator from the Dakotas, This is.
An interesting question.
Kevin Kramer, who I assume we're talking about, or he could be speaking about later. Thune is different in that there are members who are actively benefiting from things like the Inflation Reduction Act, from the clean energy subsidies that came from a purely Democrat only past bill, who are extraordinarily opposed to the president's tariffs but are unwilling to rain him in.
And the Senators from the Dakota's represent that faction.
So they are out there, you know, going to Canada trying to pass legislation to almost provide something that the Republican Party can talk about that is not related to the tariffs and not related to the President's maybe more social items on his agenda, and that's really what they're representing right now. When you say Dakota's that's who I think of.
How about just in tariffs in general, Henriette, we have again, once again, we're seeing this playbook play out time and time again, announced big tariffs, big headlines, and never more them back as it relates to Europeers, what's the how do you think this whole tariff thing is going to play out? Because it has been the number one item on the President's agenda since.
They won, since the nineteen eighties.
My view is that Liberation two point zero is coming. Liberation Day two point zero is fast approaching, and it doesn't have to just be July ninth.
Think about what is coming down the pipe.
Number one, we have sectoral tariffs across pharmaceuticals and semiconductors.
The comment period is over. Those tariffs could hit at any moment.
The pharmaceutical sector and the European Union are heavily concerned about those tariffs hitting in the next two to three weeks, if not before.
Those would come in.
If history is president at twenty five percent rates, that's what the president has tariffed.
Aluminum, steel automobiles and everything else on with the national security tariffs.
So those are pending, and there are a litany of those that will come for the remainder of the summer to the rest of this year across lumber, copper, trucking, air jets, cargo, et cetera. Then we have July ninth, and what's happening already is that even nations that we are close to or should have trade deals with, as suggested by Secretaries Bessett and Lutnik, are nowhere near completion. Indeed, South Korea, the one that I anticipated or I understood
Lutnik and Bessett. We're talking about weeks ago when they started saying trade deals could be announced, you know, just a week after Liberation Day, are nowhere near completed. They have an election on June third, and they're saying they need a delay beyond July ninth. The same is true for Japan, who doesn't even have a date for their
election yet. So when I think about what's coming down the pike for investors, it's more tires, both sectoral and a hike specifically with the EU above their current ten percent rate, I think the President's itching to get to twenty at least, if not higher, as evidenced by his forty eight hours of considering fifty percent.
How does all this CAFF talk, How is it playing out politically? Is there any feedback, any polling that people care? Are they concerned that the fundation is going to hit?
Let me stop and say, this is the question of the more than's the key questions.
I'm so glad you ask.
You know, we cover all kinds of macroeconomic policy items, and we can talk about wonky stuff like current policy baseline or carried interest, tax rates. The American public understands tariffs. What's shocking to me is to go and you know, go to my local grocery store. See the front page news and the side advert is for buy your appliances now before the tarifs hit, buy them now before President Trump implements Liberation Day tarifs.
I mean those are front page news items in states like Louisiana. The American public knows what taris are.
They know for sure that they are now tax cut, and they know that they're coming.
The history of this with McKinley taking it back to someone that the president worships, Henry, it to Troy's McKinley quarters or years after his heavy tariffs repealed them. Do we even get to heavy tariffs or do you just assume Hill verbally retrench retreat at some point like too.
I feel really startling that we need to stop.
I know I just did it, but like we need to concentrate on the fact that these tariffs are on. Y'all have some great reporting and charts in the Bloomberg terminal today about exactly how much money is coming into customs and border patrol just now for this month. It is just starting to hit. Those prices will be passed on to consumers, whether that's at Costco or Walmart. And as I mentioned, the American public, Republicans, Democrats, and independents
have a very negative view of these tariffs. They don't like when you know, Peter Tomorrow comes out and says these are tax cuts.
We know that they're not. We know that inflation is real, and now it's because of the tariffs.
I got to do this morning. Henry Ritta, thank you so much. I just can't say enough about it. We're Kenny of the Trey's there and the key item there at the beginning, she's taken out from sixty three to sixty nine seats in play as we go to the mid terms of two thousand twenty six.
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He's the newspapers with Lisa Motev. She and I are doing battling prime stories. Her stories are uglier than mine.
It's a stressful time, let me tell you, especially for the girls. Okay, so we have this trend right wealthy people buying sports teams. Well, that could be taking a little bit of a time out because the house builder we've talked about is targeting tax breaks for team owners. So what it does It includes the tech to the tax fot. It could cut in half the tax write off that is potentially worth hundreds of millions of dollars to some team owners. This according to The New York Times,
I mean NFL, NBA, other major leaguers. They've been able to write off like the entire value of their team's quote, intangible assets, player contracts, media rights, sponsorships over fifteen years, so now that could change, And what they're saying is that maybe that could stop cooling this trend of wealthy people wanting to buy teams because they won't get as much of a tax.
So we've heard this before, Paul, Right, yep, sure you know this circles around Yep.
Been there, It's been there, it's been there.
I watched some ball this weekend, and I'm not sure I understand the correlation of money to it, other than there's teams that are loaded and there's teams that are not.
Well it's I mean, they've the NFL.
They brought private equity.
Now invest in the NFL, so that's we're having to ten percent of these franchises.
So we're seeing a lot of that in the NFL. Is there a week group like in Major League Baseball p there are week teams, but no week franchises. The values is so cool. It's not Chicago White Sox, you know.
I mean, I just kind of feel like, even if you're in a small market like Jacksonville, you know, the value creation there is extraordinary. So we'll see, all right.
So we go from sports, Yeah, I can okay, Okay, business trips. Okay, you mentioned you have one coming out right, Okay, I have one coming up next week. Tom's here.
No, We're going to the nation's capital to the National Shores, the Gay Lord Resort down there just outside of DC for an event. Alex Steele and I will be there.
Very cool. Yeah, so you pick up.
You're that business trip right next week, I'm going to San Francisco. Tom's staying here, yeah.
John Tumer is going nowhere.
So the golf So you're the one that has a golf streams.
Okay.
So the question that's coming up from this story is do you bring a plus one on your business trips? So that's the question blended travel right, leisure is like a big thing now business leisure. But a new study is saying that gen z ers and millennials they're more likely to bring a friend or spouse, and they say that they won't tell their boss because they're afraid what their boss might say. So then they have their friend or spouse kind of dipping and ducking and hiding the boss.
On the trap.
But they're just talking about this whole idea, and it brings a question like would you bring do you bring a spouse? Or a plus one on a business trip. Is it okay? Some companies are actually saying they encourage it because it makes things more enjoyable and brings stress level down.
So yeah, I got a plus one?
You got it?
Okay?
Sure, the going down to DC.
And you're not a gen z and Rolani.
Trend, do what I want to do.
I'm at that point in my life when this.
Is it's more stressful.
You think it's more stress Yeah, because look if.
I in London for five days and take plus one with me, she's like plus Bond Street plus. Let's go over to Dublin the Guinness, Let's go look at some museum and get you know, a zillion dollars. You do, it's definitely more stressful. That's one more.
Okay, Big Memorial Day box office. Not sure if you went out to the movies, but a lot of people did. Three hundred and twenty six million dollars in North America. That's between Lilo and Stitch and the Mission Impossible movie. Big, big, big. The theaters needed it. This was like kind of boosts that they wanted.
Yeah, I mean it's I think as we get farther and farther from the pandemic getting a little bit closer to normalization. I'm not sure normalization is pre pandemic levels, but it's gonna be a it's gonna be a continue to be a big, big, important window for these movies.
The newspapers Lisa Manteo a strong start to the week.
This is the Bloomberg Surveillance Podcast, available on Apple, Spotify, and anywhere else you get your podcasts. Listen live each weekday seven to ten am Easter and on Bloomberg dot Com, the iHeartRadio app, tune In, and the Bloomberg Business app. You can also watch us live every weekday on YouTube and always on the Bloomberg terminal