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Joining us now we start struggling. A really wonderful Friday with Sebastian Page had a global multi asset share of Asset Allocation Steering Committee. Tro Price acclaimed author the best book on diversification I've seen in his new book is out as well, The Psychology of Leadership. I want to go to Jain's Nordvik. Damien came walking and screaming about with exante data and the single sentence from ends into the weekend is strategic shifts are in motion. What's in motions page?
You know, the last forty eight hours, it's about the thirty year bond and it's gone up above five percent. I think that's a lot of hoopla about not much. If I look at the long run chart, you know, like Damien, it's a long weekend. I'm actually looking at charts and I'm interested.
If look at the.
Long run chart of the thirty year yield, it's actually not that far from five percent.
Right, Well, I mean look for me, I think Ira Josie said it best our us SO chief rate strategist. He said, you know, the mark to market loss of putting a negative carried position on the thirty year. I mean, if you think thirty years are going to go up on austerity or whatever you're you know, whatever you're thinking. You know, it's just it's not a profitable prese mean, the negative tract.
This is great, But the real issue is why is the dollar tanking? You know, on the what does trow price say about a new structural week dollar?
So short term on our platform, we're C two on the dollars. C two means we're actually bullish short term on the dollar. But Tom, this is the question of the hour because if you look at April right by the way, the stock market was flat in April, or close to flat, if you can believe it, despite what happened during the month. But if you look at what's
been happening with the dollar, it's unusual. Because economic theory will tell you when you put tariffs on the best way for the exporting country to offset them is to devalue their currency, so you cheapen their goods to make up for the tariff that is paid at the quarter. The market work, and for a while it looked like economic theory was working and the dollar should be stronger.
But then it's not behaving that way. And second thing is even in the middle of selloffs I think April, third, and fourth and huge market volatility, as Tom would say, you know on the Vick spikes, Well the dollar was not necessarily the safe haven in all this volatility.
Well, Tom, I'm disappointed, and I'll tell you why, because Sebastian came in this morning and it didn't bring in LinkedIn sensation daughter Olivia, and you know, I'm disappointed that she's not here, by the way, I know it's early. First sherobably a school, but you know, Sebastian, you're going to probably take Olivia to Europe. And I know one of your trade calls right now is you're bullish on international act I'm sorry, really European equities, let's be clear here,
and it's not because of the value component there. It's because of the momentum of the dollar cell off.
So talk to us a little bit about that.
On a month of a month or quarter of Is there some longevity to the styllar weakness on a quarter of a quarter basis.
Here Damien love that question. Love even more of the reference to our financial education video that I've been doing with my daughter. They're all over LinkedIn loving have a look. She's really interested about compound interests. By the way, behind the scenes, she still wants to spend more than she probably should. Look on Europe, we're long European equities. I think this is a shorter term view for US six to twelve months. Longer term. We're not in the camp.
I'm not in the camp of this is the end of US exceptionalism. US tech is a force to.
Be reckoned with.
But right now there's still a valuation advantage for European equities, even if you neutralize the sector effect. You have stimulus, you have dovish central banks. You have a banking sector that's doing pretty well now they've escaped.
What kind of European stocks I mean, are we buying Nesle or we buying BMP Perry book.
So our stock pickers those that implement our slcation strategy, like industrial healthcare and banks that banks are at one time book one times book value. Before the financial crisis in Europe there were two times book value. They struggled limping out of the financial crisis and with negative interest rates, that's not good for banks. Now we're in a positive interest rate environment, they're still trending around one times book value. So we like those.
So, Tom, you see what Impassion's done here. He's taken what is effectively a value call, but he's wrapped it up in a big fat momentum swing here in euro dollargy.
I agree that right back to what you were saying, I mean, it's a huge gamble about the momentum.
I mean it's it's not right now. I mean, look at the euro relative to and by the way, I
mean it's on the i of the beholder, right. And if you look at emerging market currencies, for example, nineteen of twenty one of our versus you know, the dollar this year, but only three are up versus the Euro this year, So you're really leaning into the factor, at least you know your your currency strategist are leaning into the fact that you know there may be a little bit of like again, some legs to this euro strength here, just because it's the best of the of the rest.
I guess well Themian Bloomberg Surveillance Radio is the only show where I can get a little bit more quantitative and theoretical. That's why Tom is my absolute favorite host and anchor.
Are okay you non linear right now?
Well, a lot of things are nonlinear in markets. Markets are more nonlinear than they've been historically. If you look at tails on both sides, the left side and the right side, positive and negative. But what it's going to say is valuation and momentum when they align together. Yes, historically that is a much stronger signal than either signal working alone, and that's been studied across markets.
We welcome all of you across the nation. Good morning on Serious XM. I was lectured, did an event with Pimco. It's a small startup money on the West coast. Sebastian page of t row Price. How about those orioles that endorsements really working out this year? Anyways, folks, good morning across this Memorial Day nation. Damien Sassar and Time, can we welcome you. I can't say enough on a sleepy Friday as you get into the weekend, the markets are
not sleepy the dollar dynamics right now are extraordinary. Berry King Green and Damien Sasa are in the eight o'clock hour that got Ducky bumps over that on YouTube. Subscribe to Bloomberg Podcasts. Thank you for that, just growing each in every day. Damien sas are to Sebastian.
Page, well, I just think it's about growth expectations here in the US, right, I mean, they really are falling. I mean, and so you know, the question is how far do they go or how far before the FED catches up and wakes up to this. So I'm just curious to hear what you know. Your great expectations are for the great Fed expectations are sorry through the end of this year, but more importantly in the first half of now next year. It's just how deep do we think the terminal FED funds rate can go?
You have to account for the possibility of an upside surprise and inflation when you answer that question. It's not just about growth. That's why it's tough to be the FED.
Right now, that's right, I'm going to stop the show, folks. I'm interviewing Damian Sassar and Sebastian Page. Horse and cart does inflation go up as the cart because the horse is the dollar weaker, the debt and the deficit bigger. How's that sequence work to get higher inflation.
Well, I'll hit that first, And it really comes down to whether the hard data catches up to the soft data and the resilience of the US economy and whether or not this can all play through. And I don't think we've really gotten a whiff of what a fourteen and a half percent effective tariff rate, because that's what we're talking about exxanthy right if you talk about China forty percent plus the sectoral and that's up.
From two and a half percent from three to fourteen, right, right.
So I mean like, I don't I don't know what that looks like, and I don't know what this US economy looks like in that environment, and so what the market I guess if I had to get asymmetric on you, I think the asymmetry is to deeper cuts.
You know when they do.
Come Sebastian, Damian, Sebastian, I'll get they're both the great tie up in Quebec. Sebastian, when when I did Quebec go for Kearney, they sort of did. Didn't that Edmonton? They did? Good morning Prime Minister Kearney Sebastian. Very importantly here do the Americans get more inflation because of what we see now in currencies and with the Build Better America BBB bill and all.
It's part of it on imports. So you're today we're running at two point four percent inflation. If you analyze the monthly prints, that's not too bad. The one year swap is looking at three point three. So the expectation is that inflation's coming up. I think there's a risk to the upside because of commodities. Some commodities are trending up, precious metals and soft commodities because of wages.
About thirty three dollars.
Just the towers alone, right, it's you know, you would know better than I. Just what is the impact of these terror I mean, what is it going to do to inflation? To prices here? I mean Walmart cost conounts, is earnings next week? I mean we're not going to get any look, but they're certainly going to, you know, talk around some of that stuff. And it's just going to be interesting to see you right in the especially the input prices I mean and you know, all that stuff is starting to trend to act.
Okay, So Tom, this is like we're having our mini asset allocation committee here, because in our ass location committee we have bulls and bears, and we have debate, and now we're neutral or close to neutral between stocks and bonds. But now Damien is sounding a bit bearish here, so I'm going to give Devil's advocate the other side of it. Earnings growing thirteen percent this quarter relative to the same
quarter last year. The FED more interested in cutting than hiking, and growth, yes, is slowing, but most of it is in the soft data. There's been a massive drop in the soft data. But if you want to look at one data point on hard data, I would look at claims, and claims are still in the low two hundreds. People are not getting fired, right.
We've heard this this week. I really can't say enough, folks about the anecdote that we see that America is vibrant and busy. At least the upper third of people consuming is they can. There's a wonderful book out now, The Psychology of Leadership by Sebastian Page. This comes after his tour de force on All the Traps and pitfalls of diversification for parents at home falling apart because the
Brady kids are getting ready for summer. What is the psychology of leadership for parents to get through this summer with teenagers?
You know I have two teenagers, so that question hits home.
Tom. I'll say to that question, I'll.
Say this, people underestimate how important it is to have long term goals, to think long terms. And I think that applies to the younger.
You got to give your kids the gift.
Of long term, the long term goal and thinking long term and and guiding your actions day to day based on what you're trying to do long term.
Is it okay that the older teenager walks in, says nothing and closes the bedroom door discuss.
I mean, for me and my experiences, when you come down to the kitchen and your daughter's they're eating, and I say, oh, hey, what you eat and then she goes stop badgaming me and she just runs out the door. So I understand what you're talking about. And she's beautiful anyway, don't get me started. But we all have our experiences there. I think we have to take this back to the job market, because you make a really, really really good point. What will it takes a bashing page for payrolls to
come off here in the US? I mean what I mean what and when? I mean like, when do you if it were going to happen and we had to play that scenario out, what should we be looking for?
What are the first indicators there?
So of the lagging labor market indicators, the least lagging is the claims. So I would look at claims and right now they're holding in.
Do you have a statistic on claims? Was a tip point? Is it two sixty to eighty?
Look the long run app riche on claims is three fifty. I know, so they can go higher. They can go higher, But that is potentially the least lagging of the lagging labor marketing. Edvans and oilers bullish on the Oilers, Sebastian page of Quebec and sure book, thank you so much.
He is the t road price.
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Barry King Green at Berkeley Professor Ike and Green, thank you so much for joining Bloomberg this morning. Barry, I've got to go back to you start just staying in France, and you must read for any kid getting into the game. Exorbitant privilege is Donald Trump furtthering away. Our exorbitant privilege.
Is I think the dollar has been tarnished significantly since Liberation Day. It's safe haven status is eroding more quickly than before. I've long thought that the dollar would have to share the international stage with other currencies. I didn't think that would that process would accelerate so grammatically this year.
What is so important here, Barry, is a legacy back to the nineties of the unexpected. I was with you at a G seven meeting in Singapore, hugely historic, a lifetime ago. Then we were worried about the shadows in the unexpected. Now Here in twenty twenty five, what is the unexpected? You're studying at Berkeley. What's the surprise out there that concerns you well?
I think that the markets have responded to the ninety day pause in the UK deal by thinking that the period of elevated uncertainty is over. And exactly as you said before, a few minutes ago. Tom, the uncertainty and the spike in the VIX continue. We haven't really seen that spill over into distress in financial markets, but I think that distress could be coming. I think what's happening in the cryptosphere could spill over and to mainstream financial markets.
There's a lot to worry about that hasn't materialized yet.
As very King Green looks at the long term, we must consider the data check is Professor Eiching Green states of vix's out now four big figures twenty four point five four, the SPX futures in negative ninety three now futures negative six twenty six, and dollars weaker. Barry a privileged to bring you, Damien SaaS Hour of Bloomberg Intelligence, truly expert on the interior dynamics of em currencies, Damien.
Professor Eicken Green, you discussed this world of international capital mobility, and you know you talk about US its ability to run trade deficits in order to provide foreign reserves to the rest of the world. You know, just how much longer can it continue to do that? I mean, and what other currency might serve that role if the dollar is no longer you know, as you rightly point out, the world reserve currency.
We're accelerating toward the cliff where the appetite for US free use abroad begins to cry up. I think we're already seeing hints of that in financial markets, at which point there will be a reluctance to acquire and hold and use dollars by secral banks and other investors around the world. But the answer to your second question, Damien, who can step up to provide that international liquidity if not the United States? The answer for the moment is
no one. That there aren't enough high quality eurosecurities available to the rest of the world. China is still a small player financially, despite all the chatter about it growing role. Non traditional reserve currencies like the Aussie dollar and the Canadian dollar too small to make a difference. So I think we're staring down into the abyss of a global liquidity shortage.
Professor I can Green. The dollar bulls would argue that the US military comes into play when you're thinking about the dollars reserve status. Talk to us about you know, the fact that the last seventy five years we've been free of war, there's been global financial security in the form of dollar reserve assets. Talk to us about the case for dollar bulls. Does it still hold up well?
For the last seventy five years, our alliance partners have held and used dollars, partly as a show of thanks of goodwill, partly because they believe the US will be a reliable steward of their balances. Those alliances have been called into question. When and whether the US military will be deployed to defend our security partners is now up in the air, so is the appetite for dollars.
Agreeing with us at Berkeley here on Global FX, I'm going to turn to the US debt and deficit here in a moment off of his iconic twenty twenty one book on our Public Debt. But Barry, first, I have to ask you, and I'm not going to say what's a question you would ask god Besson. It's far beneath you to act like a journalist. If you were at the White House today or at Treasury, if you were sitting there with a Secretary Treasury, what advice would you
give him? Given the president that he serves well.
Number one definitively takes some of the more hair brained ideas off the table, taxing foreign holdings of US securities. Number two get more serious about addressing the deficit problem, which is getting worse rather than better. And number three camp down the uncertainty around crede policy.
The golden fetters, globalizing cap I love Hall of Mirrors, the Great Depression, Great Recession, and the uses and misuses of history. But the book very I can greed to stop me cold complete tangent. I thought in defense of public debt. Everyone of every political persuasion is apoplectic right now. It's the very log linear growth of our deficit and our debt. Are we becoming japan Like? Are we reaching a tipping point of too much debt, too much interest expense?
Yes, the tipping point is coming. That book made the point that public debt can be useful in an emergency, in a financial crisis, in a war, in a pandemic, when you have to mobilize all available resources. But when the emergency passes, you want to restore the government's capacity to borrow in the future. And we did the first part. We did not do the second.
Professor I can Green, my chief USA interest rate strategists, Ira Jersey, and we were just talking, and he discusses this new class of bond vigilantes that they're taking the reins, that they're rebuking fiscal large ass that the psychology of global government bond investors has shifted, and rather abruptly at that. What are your thoughts there?
I think your interest rate strategists are exactly right. I think the US government has had a lot of leewaight incur debt to run deficits, the backdrop being that it is going to remain financially reliable and prudent in the longer run, and there is no evidence of the latter. There is no strategy for stabilizing the debt to GDP ratio and bringing down the deficits. So I think investors are really looking at treasuries in a very different way than they have in the past.
Professor Aiki, We've got to move to the markets of folks who are blowing up the show. Given everything we see, I can grieve driving the vix out to a five handle twenty five point one four, the dowdown six hundred and thirty points. Barry Ike and Green and Ken Rogoff mentions you in my book of the Summer our dollar your problem. He mentions Ike and Green, like two thirds of the way through the book, where did our moral compass go, the calvinistic heritage of this nation to at
least try to pay our bills in God's name? Barry, Ike and Green, where did that drift to? Well?
I think it's drifted into the land of non facts, where everyone can any everyone can assert what they want about the state of the national finances. The Congressional Budget Office, which states the truth or the closest to reality we have, doesn't carry the weight on Capitol Hill or in the White House that it deserves that it should.
Verry, I can mean honored to have you today. Thank you so much for joining Bloomberg, and we are fortunate to have you on this today of market crisis. Professor Eichingreen at the University of California at Berkeley.
This is the Bloomberg Surveillance Podcast. Listen live each weekday starting at seven am Eastern on Apple Cocklay and Android Auto with the Bloomberg Business App. You can also listen live on Amazon Alexa from our flagship New York station. Just say Alexa play Bloomberg eleven thirty.
We try to find a sense of calm with Emily Rowland. She agreed to come on if I wouldn't mention the Boston Red Sox, where thrilled she could join us from the John Hancock Company. This morning, Emily, the panic here over the weekend at kitchens at barbecues is going to be sell US big stocks like Tariff, Layden, Apple. You disagree.
You know, when we think about what's going on with markets right now, Tom, investors are really trading on feelings and not facts. This is a sentiment driven market, whether it's sell everything US, whether that's stocks, bonds, dollars. But when you look underneath the hood at the facts, earnings growth most importantly to US and the US. We just saw Q one earnings come in at fourteen percent. Nine percent is what analysts are penciling in for the year.
You look over at Europe, earnings growth this quarter was negative eight percent, and analysts are revising down earnings estimates to around three percent in Europe. You look at the front, the macro backdrop, and the United States growth is holding in the city economic Surprise index is actually perking up. The hard data is coming in positive. We're seeing the opposite happen in Europe as their data is coming in. Weaker growth is struggling overseas. Yet you've seen this massive
capital rotation out of the US into Europe. We would fade it and use those proceeds to invest in the United States.
It's so opposite. So many of the actually think she actually thinks the reds sucks are going to win ten in a row in August.
You know, And I got to ask you, and I just said it before. Two to three cuts are pricing before the end of the year by the Fed. And the Fed's made no secret about its asymmetric view on policy rates and inflation. Is there a possibility that the Fed can move more aggressively before the end of this year.
Well, I probably not, especially given some of the fiscal developments that we've seen. I think one reason that the bond market is repriced for fewer rate cuts this year is because now we may have this fiscal thrust coming through as a result of this big, beautiful bill that's potentially coming through Washington. So the more fiscal stimulus you need to do, are that your plan to do the
less monetary policy stimulus that you need to do. So we're seeing a big shift on that front, and I think that probably pushes out the FED to later in.
The year and the big beautiful Bill. Margaret Brennan of CBS still scheduled to be with us at the top of the nine o'clock. Our Craig Moffatt on Apple will be with us. He's been canscious. Mike Green will join us. Some simplified asset management as well. Damien, please to Emily.
Rowland, Emily, US GDP growth expectations have fallen off a cliff. I mean talking looking just at Q four our year over year, I mean, my goodness, I mean it just fell off a cliff here. And so I'm just curious to hear your thoughts about the dollar. I mean, what are your thoughts on the dollar here? I mean, what are you guys seeing on a forward basis? I mean, is the end of the dollar's hege money at risk here?
No, we don't believe in the death of the US dollar. That narrative does tend to resurface every few years. The dollars still the world's reserve currency. We've seen this really notable dynamic where yields have backed up at the same time that the dollars weekend. That almost never happens, and I think it is a result of the sentiment around sell everything America.
With the US.
I'm not saying we're great, but we're sort of the cleanest shirt and the dirty laundry. From an economic growth perspective here, that should actually bring a flood of dollars onto our shores. Other central banks are cutting the US is on hold for now. All of those traditional dynamics that we look at suggest that the dollar should not be experiencing weakness, and that line.
That optimism is like what you would hear from Bill Gross, the founder of PIMCO. He used to love to talk about the cleaner shirt. And the other thing I would say, Emily to your Boston college is one Pte Lynch at Fidelity years ago said you have to stay the course, explained people petrified or bewildered or confused, how to not panic and take the four to oh one k to cash.
It's so important. Peter Lynch lives right down the street from me here, and another great investor, of course, Warren Buffett, said recently, just don't bet against America. When you think about the incredible innovation that these companies in the United States have. We have a massive overweight to high quality companies. A lot of those are found in the US technology space. And when we think about what really drives markets over time, I think one of the most important things to remember
is stock prices follow profit. We are investing in companies, not countries, and we want to think about where can you find that earnings growth engine. And as we look across the world, we're still finding in the US. Yes, sentiment can be a powerful force over time. Momentum can be a powerful force over short periods of time. We do not use momentum and sentiment in our investment process.
We use cycle analysis, we use fundamental analysis, and right now we want to gravitate to those high quality companies, most of them are found in the United States.
Emily Roland, thank you so much.
This is the Bloomberg Surveillance Podcast. Listen live each weekday starting at seven am Eastern on Apple, Colock Play, and Android Auto with the Bloomberg Business Up. You can also watch us live every weekday on YouTube and always on the Bloomberg terminal.
We get a.
Huge response when Joel Lavorgna joins us. There's just no other way. Thank you so much for thanking time this morning. Short, did you speak to the president last night?
I have not.
No, I haven't, but thank you for having me, and.
We have a lot to talk about.
We have a lot to talk about. Help me here, Joe Lavorna, with the presumption of our global Wall Street listeners worldwide across this nation, that Besson will walk back the president's enthusiasms. Is that a strategy.
The president has a negotiating strategy which I would argue has been largely successful.
We probably will disagree on this.
Ratings folks not known CNN had this. Thank you CNN. His ratings have gone up in the last ten days.
Well, I'll actually you know me, well, I will say something else. If you look at the polling Tom polling that's been good in sixteen, twenty and twenty four take Rafts Mussin for example, Pauling as of last night had the economy moving in the right direction at its highest reading in sixteen years.
So there's a lot of good stuff here.
So I don't think there's a you cried, Well, this is a negotiation and the intent and desire is to read on shore and manufacturing high value out of here, So that will ultimately be the President's the president's decision, and Secretary Best will follow that.
Joe, Damian wants to get inbod I got to follow that up as well. So we have a negotiating tactic the Secretary Treasure with David Weston here in exactly two hours. And then do you just presume there'll be some make nice nice delay where we get a sixty day ninety day delay.
Maybe, or there'll be a deal tom there'll be a deal that come on. Well, let me say a framework, because people talked about the deals.
I got all this pushback to President's not going to pivot. You can't get a deal done. It's a framework for a discussion.
I'm optimistic that it will be resolved in the US's advantage.
Should I define framework for you? A framework is where you're in negotiations to get afterthought, to empty the dishwasher. That's what a framework is.
Joe, I'd love to get your opinion on the dollar as the world reserve currency. And the reason I ask it is this. I actually had long been a proponent of the thing that you know, the dollar. It's almost a bad thing for the Fed. It almost makes the Fed have to make decisions that are not necessarily based on the US economy alone, but the rest of the world writ large because of the dollars influenced the world's
reserve currency. Now that it seems to be and again I'm not calling for the end of king dollar, but you know, some of the shine seems to be rubbing off of it. Here do we think does the president does the administration think that a weaker dollar is good for America?
The administration does not want to lose this reserve status, and certain instances the dollar is artificially high visa these certain countries, but in general no. I think if strong dollar is reflective of the fact the US is basically the strongest industrial economy in the world from a GDP perspective. Perspective, however, your Bloomberg audience and Tom Kean will love this. The problem with the FED is this abundant reserve approach to operating monetary policy.
We've got abundant reserves.
I would move away from that and go back to the older system with the balance sheets smaller.
Joeli Varna with this with SMBC Nico Securities part of the Sumatoma Group of Japan, I can talk about Jamands here in with this Damien Sasa this morning. Welcome across the nation. The doubt negative. My eyes are family, Damon, Yeah, I think it's negative three thirty seven.
Right now, DJ, I mean we have to ask you about Japan, the boj's role in the global financial system, the systemic risk of it being the net creditor to the rest of the world. And you know now what we're seeing with inflation ticking up in Japan. Do you think there's any real risk that a lot of that those offshore holdings are going to need to be repatriated on shore now now?
And you don't see I mean, because well we were worried about Taiwan a few weeks ago. It's a nice Bloomberg article. I give you guys a plug. And how long did that last? There was issues last summer, was on why we had a big move in the nick I and JG B eials. By the way, j G B eyals had been leading this recent rise higher, but it's also been globally, which is also like want to push back against the narrative that the market's selling off.
By the way, the market's exactly where it was a week ago before the Moody's downgrade.
The surprise downgrade.
But this isn't about the budget being big and causing the market to sell off. So again the narrative I think is incorrect. But no, I'm not worried about systemic issues.
And why are we worried about the budget then.
Because that's just that's just the easy, low hanging fruit, simple narrative that people don't really have to think.
Center GDP, I mean we on equivalent debt and deficit.
The well, the thing is the numbers that are coming from CBO. Moodies apparently use CBO's numbers. Citizens sure it can be for a responsible budget. They all use the same numbers. I don't think they're correct. I mentioned this maybe the last time in that's all.
The present, that CEO's data is not correct.
That the forecasts are unbelievably pessimistic assuming one point eight percent GDP growth the next ten years.
So as Malpass would say, it's the growthiness that's not in there. Granted you can't predict the growthiness, but you're saying we're going to have a sustained growth rate to get us through.
Well, let's say let's say we had growth at say two and a half percent. That's I think we could be three, but let's say two and a half. That's an extra two trillion revenue to tariffs. They're going to raise two hundred billion this year. That's going to account for something over the next handful of years that won't even be in the numbers because it's not part of the official scoring.
I'm going to say, everybody listening, whatever your political persuasion, this is a really, really valid study away from the debt gloom. Do you grow your way out of the problem that's worked for a few decades to.
Say it worked in the late nineties.
Yeah, Damien.
Well Joe, I mean I have to ask you about the disconnect between the alt from the hard data here in the US and whether or not you think there's you know, something coming around the next corner. Do you know what I'm saying there? I mean, I know, this US economy has been exceptional, it really has been. I know it's resilient, it really has been. Earnings have been super resilient, and I agree with all of it, and
it can continue. But I mean, you know the whispers that the hard data is going to catch up to this drop in sentiment. I mean, do you believe in that or do we have it reversed? I mean it's the yeah, so I would say. So what I did is I went back and looked.
Because the weak data was telling us recession in twenty two and twenty three, it didn't happen. And then some of the data recently has suggested the same. I remember that, so of course, so I what I did is I went back to look, let's look at some of the harder, high frequency data. How did that perform in twenty two and twenty three. What's it look like now? Is saying recession? No change to our sales are strong, motor vehicle gasoline demand is strong.
We've heard this joke.
Yes, you've heard this claim. So no, I don't.
The hard data will turn sorry the week data.
The soft data rather will turn up. Hard data will stay firm.
On a Friday for Global Wall Street, a great lineup in the back half of our Joelivorna with us with SNBC Nico.
This is the Bloomberg Surveillance Podcast. Listen live each weekday starting at seven am Eastern on applecar Play and Android Auto with the Bloomberg Business app. You can also listen live on Amazon Alexa from our flagship New York station. Just say Alexa play Bloomberg eleven thirty.
With Lisa Mateo.
The newspapers, Okay, let's switch gears.
Totally.
Yeah, this one's in the Wall Street Journal. So you guys, we've heard a lot of stories about college players making big money playing sports like basketball, football, right, but not sports like golf, tennis. Softball is a big one.
Okay.
We now have softball's first million dollar pitcher.
Wow getting paid.
She's getting million?
No, I wish, but it could.
Be the last one. So let me get so. Her name is Niejerray Kennedy. I hope I'm not mispronouncing that. I'm sorry if I am. She was pitching for Stanford but transferred to Texas Tech, who's booster collective paid her one million dollars.
I believe.
But here's it could be the last because there's this new set of rules that could restrict how much boosters can pay college athletes. It's likely to come in the coming days, but it's for for low priles profile sports.
Bloomberg Business Stores. Damian comment on this, With all the work you do with Scarlett.
The average NBA WNBA player gets paid one hundred and forty seven and fifty dollars a year. That's a w NBA professional basketball player. And you're telling me this college wonderful softball.
Tillion dollars just tied into Vanderbilt in Miami. Do you see name image like this school like Vanderbilt absolutely everywhere.
I mean, the rumors are Cooper Flagg got paid, you know, a couple million dollars to play for Duke last year. You know, we got get Paul Sweeni back in here. But you know that's that's what you're up, the endorsement kind.
Of we're going to interrupt newspapers right now. Lisa, you're living this in real time for our audience across this nation. You have a gifted daughter. You're living it. Do you think this trickles down from ten famous schools like Texas Tech and Stanford to one hundred and two hundred and three hundred other schools.
I've just seen like the pressure on the young kids, like all the pressure they have now, like oh, I have to perform, Like I got to post this on social media.
I gotta post this.
You have a batting in your backyard?
I do, yeah, I know, I know.
All the extra coaching sessions.
Yeah, I know, I know.
Okay, happy Hour, It's Friday, right, Okay, memorial.
Were coming up? Continue?
Okay, So in these stories of people drinking less more, people ordering mocktails, Okay, that's the hot new thing. But a lot of those people are starting to go plane. There's just too much. They're paying fifteen dollars for juice and soda and sero, and they're saying, what's going on? And I get it because we go to the bar, the restaurant and I order a mocktail for my daughter. I'm paid fifteen dollars for it. My drink costs lesson and had alcohol in it.
What's going on?
I don't think my wife would like me very much if I participated and drive you liar sober October? Are you really doing? I don't think she'd be able to put up with me.
Can slip one more? I can?
Okay.
So the Mission Impossible Final Reckoning that comes out today, too big, you know, movie weekend for the holidays. Tom Cruise actually really did get an aircraft carrier for the mission. The Pentagon granted him his crew access to the USS George H. W.
Bush.
For the movie, they spend like three days on it, so it's a really incredible.
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