Elon Musk ≠ Warren Buffett, Kass Says

looking at closely. NBC Capital's chief economists joining us here in New York. Tom, good morning to you. Good morning gentlemen. How is everyone? Everything is great, and we're wondering how gradual great hikes for now? How long for now really is? For now is at least until the end of next year. Um. You know we that this has been our long standing call. Uh. And finally I think the market is starting to buy into it a bit more. They're still not quite convinced

on nineteen. But you'll get two more hikes this year, and you'll get four hikes next year. Uh. And I look, it's not a heroic case. I mean, I think this is what people forget. Um, if you have economic activity that's accelerating. UM, labor dynamics that continue to suggest that the consumer is going to be in very good shape. Uh, then I think that will lend itself to the FED continuing this process of normalizing rates. So I don't think we're going out on a limb. It's great uncertainty shared

by many about UM. If you took a twelve month rolling view of the economy waking up in nineteen looking ahead full hikes. Yeah, In fact, what I would say is economic activity actually doesn't look very different in nineteen than it does right now. And here we are with a year where you're going to see four hikes. So interesting. Yeah, yeah, So I think that's the sort of the right framework

to think about it. In UM. You know, look, if we were if this was any standard economic expansion and we were here in your ten then yeah, you would make the case the FED was basically about to sort of stop the process. But it's actually I would say that the real risk is that you actually see more hikes, not fewer hikes from this FED. Well, let's just take the forecast from the street. The Magian estimate for growth next year is about two and a half percent. It's

one eight percent. Where's obc on that. Um So for this year, we're right around three percent. For next year we're also around three percent. Um So, again just sort of the idea of continuing the expansion. We actually don't forecast beyond sort of the next two years. UM So I will not get myself into compliance trouble by saying anything about that. But nevertheless, Uh, look, I would tell you that if you want like a sort of a clue for where you're going to be in if there's

we don't see any fundamental deterioration on the horizon. This is really interesting going into the Federal Reserve decision. A lot of people have made a lot out of the fact that the Federal Reserve is at odds with this administration. That sustainable three percent GDP growth just is not sustainable. You're on the side of the administration, then you think it is sustainable. Yeah, So let me not say I'm taking sides uh particular debate exactly. I don't want to

be on the side of any administration. But what I would simply say is, uh, yeah, look, I think that three percent is relatively easy to achieve as long as labor market dynamics continue. To improve much as we see them improving. But you know what I would say is getting north of three percent. Boy, do I think the hurdle is very high for that. UM. I don't think you're gonna see anything close to four percent on a

sustained basis. But interestingly, we here we are with a four four handle growth number in Q two, and guess what's gonna happen in Q three. You're going to see another four handle. So I think this allows the administration to actually take a victory lap around four percent. We don't think four percent is sustainable, UM, And not to bore your listeners, but the reality for next quarters four

percent is it's just an inventory snap back. UM. You know you're gonna get It's gonna add one full percentage point to growth UM consumption all the while will be around two and a half percent. And every business person listen to this school and Percelli's not okay. September twenty six, November December nineteen. Then we go into next year January thirty, March twenty May one, June nine. I'm looking at the cost of money a two year yield two point six

seven percent. If I get a PURSELLI three or four rate increases. Where's my two year yield come May one, two thousand nineteen. Yeah, so you're looking at a really like an incredibly flat yield curve. There's no question about it. Part of the problem, particularly if you just think about

like sort of the term structure more broadly, UM. You know, if you think about UM, you know the thing that really does the driving from a back end of the curve perspective, ten year yields in particular, you know, you tend to have some inflationary impulse that really tends to push UM back end rates a little higher. The reality is we just don't see a lot of inflationary pressure. But if are you talking about a three fifty on the two year yield? Right? Yeah, exactly, So if you

what does that do to business? What does that do to nominal spirit? So here, let's just make sure we sort of hash out this whole thing. So we have by the end of next year, we actually have funds at three fifty UM and we have tens at three seventy five. So you're looking at a completely flat yield

curve again and business spirit. So what I would say is, if we continue to print these job numbers, and we continue to print firm wage pressures if M I S M is able to continue to hold up, which again, let let me be clear, I'm not I don't want to make a sound like these are guesses. Um. We have every reason to believe that they will. Um, then so too will the corporate psyche. I'm just wondering what the rest of the bank i'bviously think of this? Cool?

Where's your credit scene? What are your credit scene thinking? If you can just get the front end all the way up to three and a half percent, what's min incentive to take risk with high yield as taught as it is right now? But tell tell me where we are in the cycle? Right? Tell me like in noords, I don't think it's a single variable equation. You can't just simply say, hey, by the way, but um, you know yields er this, Well, that's not that simple. Tell

me what else is happening? Right? If everything else continues to move along at a reasonable pays, then everything shifts higher. Um. And I think that's the right way of thinking about So basically, Tom and just to dig date Princy with thinking about this, you think there will be a big supply side response in the U. S economy. Then yeah, So it's funny if we think about sort of the

notion of aggregate demand UM. Aggregate demand is obviously always a function of what's happening from a labor perspective, right, It always comes back to labor um and so if you're able to continue to push labor firmer, which which let's keep in mind, we are now actually getting to the tightest part of the labor cycle right now, um, which guess what happens at the tightest part of the

labor cycle. Wage pressures really accelerate. So then you all of a sudden have an additional catalyst for aggregate demand. So you think productivity picks up because people are gonna have to invest and tell you productivity already is picking up. Now again, is it to the point where we want to see it? Yeah, I mean, you know, that's a debatable point, but the reality is productivity has picked up. And I would further add think of it this way.

Right now we were I would say all the pieces are in place to actually have a really nice little CAPEX run here. One commercial industrial UM lending standards have eased, and that tends to lead outright lending. Um too. If you think about where we are from an equipment perspective in the United States, the average age of equipment in the United States is about ten years old. That's actually

very old as US by US standards. So that would also suggest that at a minimum we could be on the verge of a replacement cycle in the United States. Companies are flush with cash. How many companies have we heard now say, hey, by the way, on the back of repatriation, remember how we said we were going to use that for stock back backs. Um, yeah, we're actually gonna use some of that for capex too. So I would say the pieces are in place actually to have

that scenario playoff. We go on. This has been great, congratulations on your wage and hill over the last twenty four months has been great thought provoking stuff this morning. Yeah, and I don't think anybody's prepared John for a three percent, let alone three quarters, three thirty three sixty, never mind of the four hand or we saw in the previous quarter. In this quarter, that would be something, you know, I would say that John, can we agree that that's an

outlier course, It's not like cool. But Tom picks on something quite important. Many people are focused on the export numbers fading in the next quarter. What they haven't picked up on, and I haven't heard much of, is the fact that the inventory number the previous quarter actually canceled out the contribution from trade in the last quarter. And Tom, I guess that's your point, is that yes, export might trade and that it might fade in the next quarter,

but the invatory build is going to offset it anyway. Yeah, you get uh. In fact, it's a one full percentage point increase from inventories loan, which is just astounding. And again, make no mistake, we don't think a number like that's repeatable, which is why, as I said earlier, we don't think four percent growth is going to be sustained. You'll shift back down closer to you know, roughly three percent, which is still above a lot of not the gloom crew,

but people. It's above the crowd on the rest of the street. We can say that with some conviction. You can just see it in the estimates. Are you gonna be ready, John? Today? For one of my other properties, which is the FED decides, I'm gonna watch unlike the real yield, I do watch you when the Fed descide. I just watch it. It's smart. But you don't watch me. You watch Diane Swant, Jeff Rosenberg, Scarlet, Yeah, exactly, and you're sort of on the side getting frustrates. I'm way

on the side. Yeah. You know, Scarlett's got Scott coming in. That'll be good. Scott miner coming in. It's very good. Scarlet food. As tough as nails. I mean, she's brutal, she she's got she elbows me time shut up. Nothing is more basic and more foundational than mining and international mining. With an important conversation now and the state of mining and China. Here is are John Faraoll, Good morning, guy's John Sebasti and Jack the See. I've reattends out joining

us now from London. Ja. It's always great to catch up with you, and I have to say, out of all the executives that I speak to, you have a really unique inside into what is going gone with China. When we first met, you run the copper and cold business, building up a multi billion dollar trade with the country. A lot of people trying to understand what's going on there now, jus and I'm just wondering what your insight is. Yeah, I think well, first of all, let's let's say a

few words about the results today. As you know, we we disclose our first half result. Very strong performance seven point two billion dollars of returns the clear today to a shoulders including two point two billion dollars of interim evident which is the highest in the entire water and for a six year history of the company. Now, um to your question in terms of outlook, is the outlook is pretty positive in ration to China is as far as we see it. And remember we have multiple entry

point in ration to China. We're selling I know, we're selling books like we're saying, copper and so on so forth. Today it's absolutely clear that they could be is slowing down as expected, as forecast. At the same time, is you saw a few weeks ago the Chinese government deciding to put some similars into the system. So today when I look at the other books have in China, as I said, either in nine or books a copper and so on to force, I do not have any concerns whatsoever.

So the Chinese situation, as far as we see it is pretty good. My personal experience of it is, you know, I go there maybe three four times a year. UM. Last time I met with Chao, the chairman of SASSAK, who controls most of the issues in China, it was pretty clear in his discussion that the restructuring of the sea industry, the restructuring of the alimnium is here to say, which means that China will continue to buy high quality product and it's a great piece of news for realt

into well j S at the moment. Though, just to talk about China a little bit further, do you see them hitting an inflection point where they do start to boost in terms of amount by shifting towards stimulus and pulling away from de leveraging. It's not a scenario you can see playing out. Yeah, I think I think it could happen. It could happen. Absolutely. I think they've been

able to manage the debt level in a pretty good way. Um. You know, I'm one of the most optimist person inneration to their ability to manage a debt level, and I've been saying it on this program a few times in the past. Today, I'm not concerned about the ability to manage that at all. Um, the economy is still growing, you know, six point seven percent as they manage to deliver in the second quarter of this year. If you look at it by any kind of other standards or

the geography, it's a massive number. So today China is You're growing, It's not going as fast as they used to be. There's still lots of raw material and Riotintol is very well placed to benefit from it in many ways, though real tints are also in the eye of the storm when it comes to the trade story, JS many people with points to the fact that the second largest aluminum producer outside of China, the biggest exporter of aluminum

into the United States from Canada. That puts you in a little bit of a point attention at the moment, Jazz, I don't see that tension in the numbers. Do you have the confidence that it will stay that way? Well, let's be absolutely here. I mean, let's give you an example. It's absolutely here. We are very strong player is in alumnium. You know that the bulk of the almnium were produce in Canada is sold in the US. We represent around one third of all the alumnium or should I said

aluminum consume in the US. And today there have been no issues whatsoever. There have been no matter of impact in ratio to the trade and the tariff ands on so forth, because the way the pricing works, it means that the type today are made by our customer and the end user in the US. That's the first aspect. The circle aspect is we need to step back. You know, the best interests from the end user in the US is to have access to a low cost, reliable source

of alumium. And some people would say access to a green source of allmium. And today the alemium smelter that we have in Canada are the best now, not even in the first quarter of the costcove there in the first design. And if you combine death this with two things. One is the hydrol base, so it's a sore set of water and that's in terms of energy. And the second element, if you think about the partnership we signed recently with Apple and we've Alcoha to develop in the

TANNEL technology for aluminium spelter. Pretty soon there will be the greenness of the greenness across the industry. Very low cost, very reliable source of aluminium, very green. I believe that is in the best interests of the end user in the US. To have access to this metal. So today, to answer your question, ineration to trade between the US and Canada for aluminium, no issues whatsoever suggest today it doesn't matter what I throwout. You seem to be very

optimistic and confident. Let's talk about the elephant in the room. When I woke up this morning and came into the office and switched on the Plumberg terminal in saw London traded, the stock was down hard. The stock is still down by almost four percent. What is your rdom What's going on with the stock this morning? Yeah, I mean, let's be clear. I mean, first of all, is the entire your mining business or mining industry was down in this morning when I okay it as well. That's one aspect.

The second aspect is, you know, let's step back. You know, I'm not driving this company on the back of the share place of a few hours of trading in London or wherever in New York. Will see when he opens. You know, this is a company which we have been there for world for six years. We just deliverse seven point two billion dollars of returned to the shoulders, including the highest dividend in the entire history of the company.

We have a sound business. What is very important, and back to your previous question, there is uncertainty in the marketplace. So what we need to do is to have a very resident business case on the back of bound sheets, on the back of the quality of our portfolio, on the back of the quality of a performance, in order to make sure that we deliver on our commitment to a shoulder, which is to deliver super returned in the shop medium and long term. And what we've deliversed this

morning seven point two billion dollars a return. If you think about what we didiver last year on the foll year, which was just below ten billion dollars, those are big money, big ticket items. Were just deliving on our commitments. So let's see what the share parace does does in the coming weeks and months. I've got sevens late left jas and I've got two questions for you. The increasing costs cost inflation is looking like a little bit of a

problem on the margin. Didn't say it in the Anglo numbers. Why do I say it in Rio? Well, I think what you've see in real is two things. First of all is we did acknowledge that inflation was coming back fast, and we acknowledge it as early as NOBIL December, whereas maybe some of our computers have not done it. But the simple aspect is we've taken actions early on. That's what we call our MiNet to market policulary program. And all in all, what you see to there is the

ability to maintain or EBD margins. And you saw forte BD margin which compares to fourty four percent on the full year business last year nine point two billion dollars of EBD seven point two billion dollars of return to the shoulders today. Final question, Jess, and I'm going to leave the most antagonizing question until last, because then you get to leave and I don't have to deal with it. You've just promised seven billion dollars to invest us. You've

basically said this more to come. The stocks still down, there's no real sign of growth coming from this company. The critics would say, this mining company, which should be very cyclical, it's just become a utility. It's become boring. Why is that a good thing? Jacks hold on. We have to be clear. Our commitment to sholders is verst important. We have committed to the very super return in the shop medium and long term. That the first point, and

we had to re establish our track record. Like the rest of the industry, last ten fifteen years of the industry have not been very good. Last couple of years for us have been very good. We did a ten billion or last year and with Diverse a seven point two the first six months of this year. Now at the same time is we are very clear that growth has to be an element of all strategy because if you don't grow in the mining business, you disappear because

of depletion. We have some attractive growth options. We were one of the if you maybe the only one investing at the bottom of cycle. Think about the investment we did in in the are in all last year. Think about the investment we are currently doing in book Site in in Queensland. Think about the investment we're doing in Copper and goal in Mortgola at this point in time. So we have some growth option in our portfolio. Um what is very important for is is to focus on

on growth which is of high quality. And my view is the old mantra value of a volume. It's better to deliver a few projects but do them very well on time, on budgets. In the safe manner than trying to pursue too many things at the same time and an average performance. All mantra is about value of a volume. All mantri is about creating value. Four shoulders on. Mantra is not about being big for the sake of it. It's also Bastin Jack the CEO. Every since j has

always grit a catch up with you guys. Back to John Ferrell, thank you so much, greatly appreciate that this morning in conversation on mining on China and on real attentive for INSTED. I believe we're going to Tesla right now. Yeah, we are going to Tesla, and Tesla planning to invest in five billion dollars in a possible Chinese actory. This is a nice Bloomberg scoop. It's according to a person

familiar with the situation. And this of course comes at probably an inopportune time because the trade war in the US, which makes establishing production in China more imperative for the electric car pioneer. So I'm not sure whether it's actually a supplying tape problem or whether building a factory in China gives it the edge because then it can export

to the region. If trade concerns were to escalate joining US now is Bloomberg's Asia and Needs Desk editor mL Brian in Beijing, who can kind of, you know, cut through the noise to to make sense of all of this emma? Is this a good move or it is a bad move. It's not to supply parts, right, Is it to actually build cars in China that then they can export regionally? Yeah, that's right. So it is to

build an entire cars Modelisque Dance in China. It has sort of been speculated about and in train since before the trade war really hated up, but Elon Musk didn't really seal the deal to build is factory in Shanghai until a week after that first round of tariffs from the Trump administration on thirty four billion dollars worth of

Chinese imports came into force. So it did look as though Tesla was acting on that because the cost of exporting its cars to China increased when China retaliated against that Trump move. So it does look as though they are trying to really secure that local manufacturing base and

what is their second largest market in the world. Um and I talked to me a little bit about you know, financing or do you do you think or are we in our reporting do we think that they're going to Chinese money to help finance this or is it money from abroad? Well, that's how understanding that they will try and finance at least part of this within China, which is quite intriguing. It's a big amount of money. As

you've said, five billion dollars. Tea has under four billion dollars in free cash at the moment, so I guess they'll try and do this via loans. Elon Musk has said that he doesn't want to issue any new shares or bonds, so I guess they might look to loans to do this. But it is quite interesting that they will try and tap the local market here to build

this factory. I think I think you just hit you hit the heart of the matter, which is they really don't want to dilude an issue new bonds and new equity. How does this fold into state owned enterprises if they do loans, is Mr Musk looking for some form of you know, traditional foreign j V or is he looking for some linkage that literally makes it a state owned enterprise. Our understanding is that he really wants to go it

alone here in China. It's been a he don't want you just told me he doesn't want to do bonds and stocks. You sound like Elon Musk and I can't It's gone. He can't have it both ways. Which way does he want it? Well, in terms of I guess ownership stake in the factory is what I mean. He wants to sort of out own it outright. But yes, if you are going to raise the money here in China, then it does open the prospect of state owned enterprises,

state owned banks, state owned other entities being involved. That is a factor. Yeah, very smart. I'm gonna thank you so much, m O'Brien with a reality there that somehow I don't think we're going to hear in the TESLA conference call today. Now, let's talk banks and this trade standoff between the US and China maybe heating up again. Bloomberg understands that the Trump administration will propose more than doubling its plants terrorists on two billion dollars of Chinese import.

Now this comes and it reports that the offices of Treasury Secretary Steve Nuchin and the Chinese Vice primarily Hey, are privately discussing ways to re engage in negotiations. So how is the trade tensions actually affecting markets and investments or joining us now from an exclusive interview is Andre. He's the president of the Investment Bank at UBS and of course, in the second quarter the investment Bank, also led by Rachel, delivered a stellar performance, led by surging

equities and effects trading. So welcome to surveillance Andrea, and of course congratulations on your last quarters. Overall. How do you see the markets, um, you know, improving from now on? Or we can see more volatility? Is equally to be good volatility? Or is this is this kind of central bank normalization still utopia? Well, obviously we have a strong underlying economic growth and that will continue with the US

continuing to boom. Emerging markets are still quite resilience, and I'm holding Europe and the UK a little bit less good. But I think the market dynamics are quite different. We have seen a lot of volatility and a lot of influence from UH political events or politically driven events. You talked about trade wars, you you can talk about Brexit, you can talk about a lot of other things like that that will continue to move the markets. We think

the markets are actually quite complacent, quite leveraged. We don't see a lot of buying activities, so if we have some reaction, it can hurt. But we are overly positive for the second half of this year and we're prepared for it. Would you worry most about the second half of the year, So it's not a kind of sudden correction of the market. Well, I think we could have some some whip effect from from some of these events.

I mean, when we talk about trade wars, everybody is concerned, but at UBS we we have actually prepared a set of scenarios and we do think it could take anywhere between fifty business points and point out of global growth in the worst case scenario. I don't think that that is fully priced in where could be positive or negative.

But if you go into a Q three, which is notably less liquid because people are on holidays and everything else, and you have some of those comments, the reaction we've relatively limited buying activities supporting it could be quite significant. That does not mean it doesn't bounce back later, but it does mean we could have some bad surprises. What do you think markets are complacent? Is it because actually there's a lot of passive investment, and so it's very

difficult to price in. Or is it that traders are young or that, or that we've just never seen anything like this before. I do think there are There are a number of factors. One, we have a wall of cash that has been absorbing any correction within a certain period of time. That continues. If you look, privat actually have over a trillion to invest and they're driving M

and avis here. That's cash. We Secondly, people have leverage because people who haven't have actually on the performed and that continues um and the underlying economic is solid um, it's booming. So all of that is positive. However, all of that is already pristine into stock prices. It's already pristine, and people have have not been able to make any money from being negative. They have made money from continuing

to be positive. That's what concerns us. We've seen it in a number of cases where we have reactions on a specific stock or on a specific situation, people bleed because there is no absorbing shock. Having said that, as I said, we're going to see more volatility. Were expecting two three sample back, but we expect to finish the year up. Okay, but you're not predicting any way, shape or form or recession, right, a recession that would be the end of the cycle, coupled with the central bank

mistake or anything like that at this point in time. Absolutely, Now, what do your clients ask of you? Well, I think it's the difference between an economy and a background that is very valiant and mark kits which are a lot more volatile, And how do you navigate that? And specifically in Europe and in the UK, um events that are keeping this geographic care of this block behind the US and the emerging market blocks. So what's I mean if you look at M and A and deal flow in Europe,

how's how's that going? Actually, that's going quite well. People think they can extract synergies, reposition of their portfolio, improve their prospects, become more efficient by merging and taking out cost or refocusing the way video business. So that has been quite good. And actually we're said to have a record year this year and European particularly is driving that that trend um. So I do think the fundamentals are

quite good. It's just that day after day the market environment is quite volatile and and and and filled with uncertainties that we don't know how to price. How do you price trade wars? How do you price Brexit? How do you price protect anysome? How do you price um events in Italy over the budget? You try to price them, but actually it's very difficult to forecast and to adapt to it. And I thanks so much for joining us. That is Andre, the president of UVS Investment Bank, the

tweet of the day two days ago. You think of the president, you think of you know, different celebrities and the like thirty six on the front nine today my best nine holes ever. Back nine not so great, too excited. We welcome Douglas cast with hands of steel. What was it like, Doug on the twelfth hole? After you did a thirty six on the front nine, I didn't care anymore, To be honest with you, you didn't do it. It was in the tournament as well. Yeah, you didn't do it,

Tom Watson, like you did uh in Brittany. He focused just by the way. This thirty six on the front nine occurred at the South Florida Science Center and Aquarium Mini golf Course and wes pob Beach, Florida. I prefer talking about golf of the Yankees who were seven games behind in the win column and three downs column. We call that doing the mets se Doug cast of Sea Breeze, Uh partners, Yeah, Doug. I want you to remind our listeners who was a Screenberg? And why should you? Why

should everybody remember how to sell a big position. A Screenberg was the legendary and iconic chairman of the board of bear Stearns um he Um, he left the board. He left his championship well before, I might add the problems rose in two thousand seven and two eight and

his idea and he had many many um. I wrote a piece on Real Money and a load of my Real Money posse Um in which I which I talked about some of his legendary quotes, and one of those quotes that was about selling and when you have to sell something, you go on the floor and you say, I have this to sell. What could you do? Why is that important? Now? It's it's dangerous. Well, it was important then when you had people manning the specialist boots.

It's less important today. In fact, you could create a flash crash in a market dominated by a passive funds including exchange trade of funds and of course, the machines and algories which control the quantitative strategy. Doug, I've never asked this question before. I did not ask of Mr Greenberg. I thought be to impolite. Let me ask it of view with your heritage on the street. Would Bear Sterns have gone under if Mr Greenberg had been younger, more vital,

and more in charge of the company, more engaged. No way, Jose, Why not now? Um? He would have been you know, read that piece about his his missive about controlling costs and making sure about the quality, the quality of what's on their asset, the asset side of bear Sterns balance sheet. Um. He was a stickler for details. Yes, and it appears that the management that followed him were not so. Yeah, Doug, let me switch gears. Here. Do your important tweet that

you did on Elon Musk, Mr? Is it iron Horn? Him helped me of green Light. Okay, we're talking folksed Doug cast and a lot of people go after Casts. And I'm going to protect him here because when you're Warren Buffett and you want one mouthy guy on the street with enough smarts and experience to go to Omaha to actually ask intelligent questions you asked Doug Cass That's what Mr Buffett did with all its philanthropy over the years. Would you go to a TESLA annual meeting to ask

Mr Musk questions? UM? I think Warren Buffett is the most sane, um value added intelligent investor in modern history. UM And I think, by contrast, Elon Musk is off the reservation. So UM, I you know I spent seven hours asking Warren questions and the annual meeting at two thousand fourteen and m and Omah of Berkshire hathaway. I was respectful and courteous. I did months of research with my analysts about the sort of questions I wanted to ask them, the structure of those questions, UM and Chap.

Both Charlie and Warren gave wonderful responses and and responded directly to my questions. UM and I suspect that if I did the same at a TESLA annual meeting, I would not get quite the same response. I don't think you might recall his his his conference call following the last earnings in which he dismissed analyst and was extremely rude and court. You would never see that from Charlie Warren, I think you wouldn't be allowed to eat the peanuts

at the annual meeting. Correct. And in the case of Berkshire, hath the way the the cherry coke and the peanut brittle our investors being compensated for taking risk in the market right now? Now, I think tops are processes and we may very well be in that process. Now, Um, why do you believe that well? In the search of value? Uh and comparing it to the risk taken? At its core is the marriage of a contrarian streak, which I

think I have and a calculator. Um. There's an adage wolf Street adage that says tops are bottom of tops of pro bottoms are events at least most of the time. And if you look at an ice cream cones profile, the top is generally rounded and the bottom is V shaped. This is how tops and bottoms often look in the market. UM. I think that it's important to gauge the possibility that the market may be making an important topic. It's even more important PIM to distill, based upon fundamental inputs, what

the markets reward versus risk is. And there are growing fundamental and technical list of signposts that suggests the market is in the process of making a top and that the risks store for the rewards. Have you sold long positions? I've sold everyone. Last Monday I sold I did something so extreme I've never done before. I sold everyone of my equity long positions. I do have some trading lungs which I put on in the interiment of a like CBS um but but um uh. I am materially out

of the market in the net short position. Now, well, we're gonna come back with Doug cast. It's really nice that you can continue with us in this half hour because I know he's booked at the South Florida Science Center and Aquarium, West Palm Beach, Florida Mini Golf Course. Have you ever been there, Doug. You've been there, right to the center, not the mini golf course, not to the mini golf course. Very good. We're gonna come back with for those for those of you part slices just

past the windmill. Thanks for listening to the Bloomberg Surveillance podcast. Subscribe and listen to interviews on Apple Podcasts, SoundCloud, or whichever podcast platform you prefer. I'm on Twitter at Tom Keane. Before the podcast, you can always catch us worldwide. I'm Bloomberg Radio