Earnings, Tariffs, and Markets

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Joining us out with our interview of the day without question is liz Ane Sanders icondic at Charles Schwabs spend there for at least I think it's five years, seven years, something like that. Joining us in studio Lizzie Saunders today. Okay, forget about all the equity discussion. I want to know the act of your Twitter feed. Yesterday your Twitter feed

Well, I'm not creating most of the charts, you know, that's Kevin's domain. If I had to create, it would be you know, from the terminals with crayon. So thankfully I've got a great uh pair of folks with Kevin and Adrian who do the charts. But you know, there are there are days where weeks happen, and this week is one of those unbelievable weeks.

When I get breakfast at Sarah Bass in Central Park South today and do like a four hour conversation on this moment at hand, I got brain crude under sixty dollars a barrel global slow down, US slowdown? Is that what you model in? Yeah?

I think what we're seeing now is there was a lot of debate in the onset of the escalation of the trade war as to whether the growth hit would come first of the inflation pop would come first. And it looks like the growth hit, YEP, maybe coming first.

So Liz, we've got the S and P five hundred. I mean that good news.

Bad news is we're down ten percent from the high early in the ear, but the good newses were ten percent higher.

From the bottom. What do you make of this? What do you think we should be doing here?

I think what we're seeing in the month of April, particularly since the low, is a sign that the retail trader is still very active. They're still in the by the dip mentality. You've got tech BAC and the leaderboard on a month to date basis even though it's toward the bottom on a year to date basis. Vand Track tracks what retail traders are doing. And that's in start contrast to hedge funds and other institutions and CTAs that

What do you make here of earnings?

Right?

Guess we're almost halfway through the earning cycle. Ie, I see a.

Lot of companies probably doing what I would do, which is like, I don't know what's going on at there, so I'm going to pull my guidance or give you some ranges or some scenarios.

What are you taking away from earning shot?

I think companies have put themselves into time out, you know. Earning so far for first quarter a little bit better than expected, not quite the beat rate that we've seen over the last year. So, but that's through March data. So it's the guidance are lack thereof that I think is really important. And it is starting to feel a little bit like the early stages of the pandemic, when at that time you've had a re percentage of companies got and solved together.

Is institutional under owned in the MEGS seven that retail owns up.

To their eyeballs in many cases yes, because of certain funds requirements that they have a max on the amount they can hold percentage wise in any individual stock. Even some of the sector exchange traded funds are limited are limited, so they they're by default can't get couldn't have developed the same concentration problem is what was embedded in cap weighted in Texas the.

Charon at the University of Delaware a few years ago, Liz Anne Saunders read Securities Analysis. This is a Seth Klarman version. I actually read the first edition, which starts with railroad stocks and the Reason I bring us forward by Warren Buffet, Graham Dodd and Coddalhealth two out of colaun of this good work out of Columbia Lizzianne and I read this cover to cover a few years ago, and out there Lizzyanne is a terminal value. I am

Can I plug our version of May Day today? Yes, so we are launching today the inaugural of be an annual event called national in Day. May first is purposeful because what it means in our world is that was the year fifty years ago or the day fifty years ago on May first, where the sec ended fixed Commission, much of Wall Street decided to raise commissions and Juck Schwab himself said, yeah, let's lower them.

It was revolutionary, that was.

But the day is about encouraging everyone to at least take one day a year and educate themselves about investing and learn a bit more, become engaged and you want to empowered investor?

Why did that?

How long time?

This at the top of the interview. I'm running at a time here and mister Schwab deserves some love here for really what he courageously did there. I mentioned Arthur Levitt is well, so today is your May Day. It's a number one mistake the media makes in short termism right.

Now, asking people like me the question should investors get in or get out. I mean, that's just shame on anybody that that's not investing, that's gambling, not just on a moment in time, but in two moments.

And is back to the humor, but the sadness folks of America missing out on the Lizone Saunders great bull market, the joke of the triple leverage all cash fun The fact is it's not funny. It Can you come back like soon?

Yeah?

You know, I mean I love being in here in person.

Have you seen Robert Plant this summer or you know, we got any tour guy with the floods.

If he decides to pair back up with Page and John so cool, Jason speaking, well, they are, they're on speaking terms. Plant doesn't want to do it.

The only reason they go out is when somebody gets divorced and they have to pay for it. I mean, that's you know.

You know, there was rumor that Sir Richard Branson offered them almost a billion dollars a number of years ago to just do two concerts and wanted msg here. Wow, And it was apparently Robert Plant that said, wow, I.

Know, there you go. Folks are surveying Bloeplin Sanaders. I would look for her in Birmingham with Ira Jersey at the Aston Villa. Was it pan Terror's playing?

I know that's a big show.

Lisa Mateo, Lizzie Sanders. They love Pantera.

This is the Bloomberg Surveillance Podcast. Listen live each weekday starting at seven am Eastern on Apple cor Play and Android Auto with the Bloomberg Business App. You can also listen live on Amazon Alexa from our flagship New York station. Just say Alexa play Bloomberg eleven thirty Right.

Now, Daniel Ives joins us, and he's the greatest thing about Ives is when he's right, he doesn't do the rhyme right and right and right thing. He just moves on to the next analysis. So I'm going to go CEFA on your Dan. I joining from Webb Bush.

The thing I don't get is the terminal value of revenue growth for these juggernauts. The media is out one quarter, if we're lucky, three quarters a year, The streets out two years. I was trained to go out five or even seven years. Do they have persistency of revenue growth out to two thousand and thirty two?

Look?

I think, for really the first time, maybe ever big tech because of this AI revolution, the visibility and the demand that they're seeing gives them what I believe is almost hypergrowth into the next call it five six, seven years. And I think that's that's essentially what we're seeing play out here, whether it's on digital media, whether it's on cloud, across the board, even in the tariff uncertainty, Big tech Rock of Gibraltar. I mean, it's playing through as we see it.

Hey, Dan, I'm looking at a Microsoft.

I mean, here's a three trillion dollars market cap company, stocks up t pre market.

I mean, it's just amazing here.

Talk to us about what's got the street enthused tier about Microsoft this morning?

Well, first off, I mean think about all the rumors abandoned data centers here and there that well, how about them apples? Right? You don't see I don't think those a banded datas. I think that story is gonna disappear, right because the reality is like Azure two hundred bits

Dan.

Prior to the beginning of this year, all we talked about was AI for the past couple of years, and for the last you know, four months, we've talked about nothing but tariffs.

How is the AI story unfolding? Now? Can you give us an update?

Yeah, look, i'd say, and we talk about it. You know that that Tom reference. In the last few weeks, like all of our checks, I mean, we've we've seen some almost acceleration and a lot of the AI spend because I think companies are basically saying like this is you cannot touch this, because this is really what's driving the strategic shitter view of a lot of these coms

I got a return on invested capital, Folks, that one of the best screens in the Bloomberg terminal is w acc Way did the average cost a capital study. It's what's called a stern Stewart study from a million years ago, and I got a persistent twenty five percent return on invested capital for satchin company. Dan eives. I got revenue pre pandemic of one hundred and twenty six gazillion. They've done a double to where we are. Now do they get out to I can't believe I've never said this number.

I mean, I think four fifty to five hundred. I mean it's it's hit able because just given I don't see what's gonna stop it, just given where companies are going and just to I mean, you put in perspective today like you only have two percent of US enterprises that have gone down the true aipath. It just should that's just US. None in Europe none, really, I mean outside of China it's minimum in termed agent. It just shows where this is going on. Despite obviously tariff uncertainty.

Hey Dan, We're going to get our good friends from Cooper Tino. Apples can report after the close here today.

What are you looking for?

I know like they're not going to give guidance, right, I mean, I'd be shocked, and I think I think the big question for them is the quarter itself actually is pretty strong and even something that could be pulled forward. The big question for them is like, how do you navigate coming out with iPhone seventeen in a typical cycle with these tariffs? What are you waiting for from the administration?

Is there?

And I think that's the question. Does the timing get the way we've talked about for Apple obviously being bullsh you know, for a ducade, this is you don't look at over the next three months. You got to look as you know, as tom Owi's reverence, you got to

Tom Apple's gonna have over one hundred billion dollars a free cash flow.

Yeah.

I mean, well, Dan, what do they do here with this free cash flow here?

I mean, look, M and A has obviously been minimal to that the way that they viewed in kuper Tina, it's it's basically from an R O I C. It's about to buy back and it's about ultimately how they how they're going to continue return that to Cheryl right. I mean, you.

Notice you don't see this on Bluebird Radio, but you see it on YouTube. What I've does is he's at some golf courses. He in Arizona.

I don't know where he is.

I'm in an area airport.

He drops in the wet bush backdrop of some class hotel room. He's like in a motel five or a Motel four somewhere instead of some two thousand dollars a night golf course in Scott's you know, one of the places sweeties been. Dan. I look at the belief here, and what I see more than anything is mag seven is under owned by disbelieving institution chefs. Retail America loves Apple. Okay,

I think, well, I can nailed that retail, stuck with it, institutional. They've hit the exit and I think they got and they've got scared out a lot of the mags haven a lot attack and now guess what's going to happen over the coming weeks. They're they're going to have to double down. And I think that's why I think the run here that we can see intact over the next three four weeks, especially as we go through I think

Hey, yes it is Aaron Judge.

Happened even a better year this year than last year if that season impossible exactly? Hey, Dan talk to us about Tesla and I think a lot of people are probably most interested in Elon Musk. We haven't heard from him much over the past month or two on the Doge front.

Where do you and I know you've been very very.

Public and very outspoken about suggesting that he really needs to get back to his day job at Tesla. What do we know about Elon Musk and Tesla these days?

Yeah, and then obviously you know the Journal article of j obviously a board denied. Then that came out last night about you know, looking for a CEO potentially, Look, the reality is a must. That was a code red situation and it was the most important comments call he ever had to do, and he handled it. I think

And your community across the nation. This morning, and of course on YouTube, Dan, I's with us with Webbush looking over here to see the Secretary of Treasury and conversation. I believe with Maria over at Fox Furs will monitor those headlines from the Secretary of Treasury. It seems Paul every time he speaks is that press conference the other day, he moves the markets.

Guys, Hey, Dan, just on the EV front here, I mean there's a lot of I guess, fundamental concerns here.

If you're a Tesla investor, I guess just from the car business.

I know Elon's trying to have your focus on other areas, but boy, by D and the Chinese operators are just really tough, aren't they.

Yeah, it look b what I mean we've seen in firsthand in China. You know many times BYD has done phenomenal and but I think it's not a mutually exclusive in other words, like Tessa is going to be also successful in China like they have been when it comes to the EV market. I mean, Paul, I think ninety the future value of Tessa is going to be autonomous about it. I mean that's my.

And and Dan just just to be clear here, the board at Tesla thinking about a replacement.

That's not even that's not even thought of. Is it really?

Again?

Keene came, he didn't want to do it, so after he was after he took his hat out of the ring, there was there was no one left. Look, I think, but Paul, they had to do something, whether it Tesla denies or they had to do a warning shot. It got to and we talked about with you guys while on the ship. They it hit. It hit that moment, true.

Dan, I got a minute left on Tesla. Have you been in one of the Chinese EV's have you you know, you're such a hitter. Have you been like in a B Y D yep? Are they are they nice? Are they like?

No?

They're they're there so that you go, what are.

They like you? He doesn't. Michael bar Ives doesn't even know what a ugo is. It's sort of like a pinto. I wish I didn't know what you go, Jives, what's the quality of a Chinese EV? Look?

I mean by d high quality, I mean I think even someone like Sweeney would take that to the golf.

Course where I go, Dan, I thank you so much, your trooper. I can't say enough about the hours Paul, you mentioned the hours he works.

You're listening to the Bloomberg Surveillance Podcast. Catch us live weekday afternoons from seven to ten a m Eastern. Listen on Apple, Karplay and Android Otto with the Bloomberg Business app, or watch us live on YouTube.

Leland Miller is a China basebook. Where's thrilled he could join us this morning? What's the thing in the zeitgeist on the China US US China trade war that's not talked about enough?

Well, I think too much is being made of the idea that she can't come to the table and Trump can't come to the table because each of them has to have the other one go to the table first. It's in the boat interest of both these countries to eventually move towards some sort of negotiation. That doesn't mean that the negotiation is going to move to anything, but the terriffs are in a very very high level of both directions. They don't even serve an economic purpose past

So the tariffs are sort of arbitrary at a certain point.

If the President wants to come to the table say look, we'll bring things down in return you do some things for us, that certainly is a possibility if he's feeling economic pressure, if he's feeling pressure to sort of coalesce the Republican Party in one direction towards towards the tax bill as well. So there's a lot of pressures that are building up as we get towards summertime, they're going to sort of change the dynamics around the tariff discussion.

Lee, then, can you give us a sense of where you think China is in terms of its relative strength in negotiating with the United States.

Give us a sense.

Of how things are in China and how they might impact its ability to negotiate.

With us well in a vacuum.

The United States has much much more leverage over China than China has of the United States because the size of the of the of the trade surplus that that that China has the United States. And I think that the idea here is if that were all we were talking about, there is there's a very good chance that the United States could just weigh this out. The problem is there's a lot of other things going on in

So how do you expect this to play out? Leland?

I mean, do you expect a meeting between President Trump and President She? Do you think maybe it'll just be trade representatives hammering out something, just the meat and potatoes kind of stuff that always happens.

How do you think this might play out?

Well, Trump clearly wants to get in the room with she, and she doesn't want to get in the room with Trump because he's worried that will do something to embarrass him, that he'll say that something's happening, or and then he'll go back after she agrees. So there's there's a cadence

Involved Leland Miller to China, Beijing, where it's just thrilled that he's with us. Okay, here's the reality, folks, And Paul knows this. When I say I went to China, it's the airport a Mercedes. Maybe you go two miles, three miles Shanghai, a little longer some fancy hotel, a fancy office. Yep. Then I get in the.

Cargo back to the airport and I've been deep into China.

Leland Miller. I want to go deep into China right now? Southwest of Beijing. I guess north, a little bit west rather of Shanghai, and I'm gonna I think I'm mispronouncing it. Shang She's Sha n Xi, huge manufacturing appliance place. What do they do, I mean, when they're out of a job, are they like starving? Or is there a social net in this trade war for people deep into China and all those manufacturing jobs.

Well, there is a social safety net, but there's also a lot of pain. So we're seeing right now manufacturing in China is actually under a lot of duress. The economy outside of manufacturing is actually looking more resilient than it did earlier this year. You know that if you look at the PMI has just reported all these things happening in manufacturing. We had that data last month and so we saw a huge fall off last month. We saw the end of most of the front loading happened

Okay, so classic economy and a command control economy, I get that. The classic economics. Here, they're gonna give a surplus spur to the people of China, and the only outro there is a depreciation of the Chinese. You want? Is that just? Is that a Leland Miller certain to happen?

Now, I don't think it's certain at all.

As a matter of fact, I don't think they want it to happen unless there's a break the glass emergency. So one of the problems with just appreciating your way out of this. Yes, it would help manufacturing, it would it would badly hurt consumption. It would be a political disaster for China around the world because there'd be countere valuations, there'd be a enormous amount of political friction from that, especially for the United States, but but also for everywhere else.

Don't be a stranger, Leila Miller. Thank you so much, China BASEBA.

This is the Bloomberg Surveillance Podcast. Listen live each weekday starting at seven am Eastern on Applecarplay and Android Auto with the Bloomberg Business app. You can also listen live on Amazon Alexa from our flagship New York station, Just say Alexa play Bloomberg eleven thirty.

He's joined us before and for all of you across the nation and your commute on YouTube across this nation, Canada and Mexico, around the world. The New York City mayoral primary, the Democratic Party primary, because there's like twelve Republicans within the tri state area. I'm kidding. The answer is, it's a really interesting study on a budget standpoint of what to come. We've had in a number of the candidates joining us again. Brad Lander joins us. He's a

The mayor that Eric Adams. The budget that Mayor Eric Adams put out yesterday is preposterous. It makes no allowances for the likelihood of an economic downturn, no allowances for the likelihood of federal budget cuts. He doesn't put one penny in reserves, and it's got a one point four billion dollar deficit in the current fiscal year. So yes, this is him trying to campaign even though he long

Give us it. Just a sense of the state of the city right now from a financial perspective, where are we?

Yeah, so before the tariff threats, we were actually in pretty good shape. Private sector jobs back up above the pandemic for the first time, commercial vacancies starting to decline. Now too much growth in low wage sectors healthcare and social services, but some promising signs. But if the tariffs tip us into an economic downturn or a recession, that'll blow a big hole in our budget. If there are a big federal budget cuts to course services, that'll blow a big hole in our budget.

Do you at this point anticipate the federal government cutting back support of New York City for example?

Yeah, going two different ways. Look, the budget that they've set the framework up for is going to cut money to all cities and states, leave politics aside, and that's you know, money for school lunches and money for healthcare in our public hospitals. And then yes, I mean Trump is clearly aiming at cities like New York, and that's

The land or distinction, like a lot of most people grew up in one zip code, you know, on this side of that side of Central Park or one of the boroughs. You grew up in the shadow of kmox out in Saint Louis, you are different because you actually understand there's other cities out there, just like New York. How bad is this going to be for Saint Louis or for Dallas or for a very beleagued crime ridden in Chicago.

Look, this is going to be a challenge for every city. If you lose the federal funding that pays your school lunches, or the money and your public hospitals, or your housing vouchers there were you know, New York stands to lose eight thousand housing vouchers. I don't know how many Saint.

Louis President Trump have the power to do that. Does he have the power in two thousand and seventy five to say, Trump to city drop dead?

Look, you know these eight thousand housing vouchers he's already said he's going to cut. He absolutely has that power. That'd be eight thousand more homeless families if we don't do something about it.

Right outside our front doors here on Lexington Avenue, we've got these big cameras on Lexington Avenue for the congestion pricing.

What's your view on that? Where are we on that?

It's a great step forward. You know, I was one of the people. I've been fighting for it alongside Mike Bloomberg since two thousand and seven when the governor put it on pause. I convened the litigation coalition that got it off pause by bringing two lawsuits. And now we've got one hundred and sixty million dollars more headed toward fifteen billion to invest in modern signals, in subway elevators, in platform barriers and station gates. Is it better faster

North to sixtieth Street, Park Avenue looks like downtown in nineteen ten. It's like jammed up outside the congestion or am I right on that?

There have not been big traffic backups, even on the edges of the zone. Honestly, it is working better than anyone expected. Foot traffic is up, business is going well. This is one that I thought would be good. It's even better.

Redlander, with this New York City controller and may oral candidate here, what do you do up to the June primary? I mean, well, what's the do you in this fractured cultural New York City? I mean, I don't think it's a city of a Beam or David Dinkins or others. Now, how do you campaign in this modern age?

Well, first, you go everywhere, and it's an amazing city. Yesterday I was out in Brownsville, I'm up in the Bronx, I'm in all the as many neighborhood as I can be personally. Of course, I'm up on the air with TV ads next week. You're doing radio digital, You're getting out on every single place. I love being here.

It's fun.

New Yorkers are amazing. They're very diverse. They tell you how they feel. They're pissed off about how much how expensive it is, and how expensive housing and childcare are. They want to feel safer on the subways. So they love hearing my plan to end street homelessness for folks with serious mental illness.

What they want solution?

I mean, Tom and I we've been in this city for a long long time.

Lisa as well.

What does the city like New York do on that. Look, it's only about two thousand people who have serious mental illness and are sleeping on subways and streets. We can connect them to housing and services with a better continuum of care and a model called Housing First. I put out a plan to do it.

One of the.

Themes we're hearing from all the candidates, including your bread, is the basic idea we need more police officers. You're a liberal, how do you meet the Staten Island block It says we're three thousand short now NYPD? How do we affect that change?

Yeah, I mean I'm honest about it. I do think progresses myself included. We're slow to reckon with rising disorder coming out of the pandemic mental health crime, crime crime, mental health disorder. But look, we're now, you know, fifteen hundred officers down and by January first, it'll probably be two or three thousand. So I have a plan to recruit and retain officers underpaid. Growing the NYPD Cadet program. Well, my big idea is, let's grow the NYPD Cadet program,

Say a two year old NYPD officer can go out to the suburbs for more money, right are they? Frankly, the nurses, the teachers, everybody else. It is the pay grid of New York City. Underpaid is a general statement. After X years, it's.

Very expensive to live in New York City. That is a huge part of the challenge. That's why I'm focused on housing affordability. I've got a program called Homes for City Workers that'll invest pension funds alongside teachers and cops and double the home they could afford. So if they could afford a four hundred thousand dollars mortgage pension fund invest alongside, they can buy an eight hundred thousand dollars home,

Brad Lander, thank you so much, New York City Controller.

This is the Bloomberg Survey Lengths podcast. Listen live each weekday starting at seven am Eastern on Applecarplay and Android Auto with the Bloomberg Business app. You can also watch us live every weekday on YouTube and always on the Bloomberg terminal.

Now the newspapers, here's Lisa to two.

Okay, so we all know how AI is being used for so many things, right, so here is another.

Use for it.

It's helping job seekers find new careers, not just a new job, but an entirely new career. So you have AI tools from companies like Salesforce, Google, LinkedIn. They're helping workers basically sell their skills, tailor their resumes to new areas, identify roles that are kind of under the radar that they wouldn't have.

Thought about before.

It's already in positions, and people in positions are already using it within the company. For example, Salesforce has this AI tool called Career Connect, so it analyzes their skills, right, it recommends roles internally that they might not have thought of. And then you have LinkedIn has one too, Google has career Dreamer.

Is Salesforce just to pick on that wonderful shop? Do they also use AI for career exit? Are they using it to get rid of people?

Oh, that's a good question. That's usually yeah, it's usually the word to get them in, but not.

To get them out. That's interesting. I mean, it's amazing.

What a I couldn't use stock movers exactly?

Well, I don't know.

Maybe I do give those emails from like your LinkedIn and stuff.

Hey this job might be good for you, you know, But suggests yeah, but I'm like I don't think so. Yeah, but it.

Kind of like opens up their eyes, like you know, you're like, wow, I never would have thought of that.

I got a LinkedIn email. This job would be good for you. It was a lifeguard in Philadelphia.

Next, okay, we'll stick with tech, will go to eyeball scanning technology. Okay, I don't know if either of you would be up for it, but it's from the company Tools for Humanity start up for COVID or no, why would that?

Part of it is like Star Wars.

Straight out of Star Wars. So it's starting this week people in like six cities San Francisco, La Atlanta or some of them, and you can scan your eyes using this spherical orb device at certain locations. So it's basically to verify your identity, prove someone is human because there's so many aid fakes out there. Okay, so that's why they're doing this. And what's really interesting is that they're using it also for dating apps because there's so many

Age verification on Tinder in Japan, they're using it for oh my god people. So honest, I know, I guess on these apps.

I mean, you know, I'm twenty six, No you're not, you're sixty college.

What's your major?

Yeah, that's exactly.

So it was okay, So we've heard a lot of stories about, you know, the big money that CEOs make, right media and CEO paying the s and P five hundred hit a high of sixteen point four million last year. But the Wall Street Journal is saying a lot of these heads of the companies they'd rather just pass on the position than deal with what's going on in the

That trickle down effect.

And that's that's basically.

I think a lot of these CEOs that made so much money on their style over the past five ten years that they're like, I'm done, you know, and particularly in a time the economic times, we have the uncertain to hear, what's a managed through.

It'll deal with it.

They don't want to deal with it.

A lot of them are saying they're empty nesters. Some are saying, you know what, I'd rather be a consultant and just we've done with this.

So it's got to get up every morning, go on. The landscape is changing.

Lisa Mateo with our tech newspapers this morning. Thank you so much, greatly appreciate it.

This is the Bloomberg Surveillance podcast, available on Apple, Spotify, and anywhere else you get your podcasts. Listen live each weekday, seven to ten am Easter and on Bloomberg dot Com, the iHeartRadio app, tune In, and the Bloomberg Business app. You can also watch us live every weekday on YouTube and always on the Bloomberg terminal