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Eric Fannastron, we start strong, Chief investment officer at Wizard Asset Management. What a tumultuous weekend. The emotion, the President's tweet and everything else is well, what are people actually doing well?
I think, Tom, if you look over the past couple weeks, this is not the first couple of days that we've had whipsaw action coming out of the White House in terms of how aggressive the posture is going to be, and or on and corresponding whipsaw action in the way markets are responding. You know, you open the show talking about OILBA at one o eight. It's not at ninety the way I think about it. It's at one oh eight,
it's not at one thirty. If you do a basic back of the envelope on how much the oil price should be moving, if we're really in for a persistent period of straight disruption, I get much higher numbers and That's why I'm pretty worried looking at markets that are still.
In the car that was really in the Zeitgasis. Ye, it was the pros like Eric are all one thirty one, forty yep, you know in a Wong's model and two hundreds.
And exercise impact. So as the chief investment officer and asset management is, what's the conversation you're having with your portfolio managers these days?
So what we're looking at is the disconnect between where where economic fundamentals are telling us that oil is going to go, that companies that are linked to the oil price, the companies that are link to other non oil imports coming out of the straight are going to go, and
what markets are saying. And we're still concerned that markets are much too sanguine about these shocks, much too sanguine about inflation in general, in an environment where the fundamentals on the ground don't seem like this is wrapping up anytime soon.
Yeah. I mean, I think when it first all started five weeks ago, it was always a concern of not too concerned in the near term. But if oil is higher for longer, then we have concerns about inflation. Then we have concerns about economic growth. Potentially, it seems like we're longer now. It seems like this is higher for longer now. I'm not sure when it starts impacting you know, economic data.
That's right, Paul.
And this is what worries me is markets have been trained, over years of geopolitical disruptions to always bet these disruptions are in the short term. And by the way, if you've been investing alongside that, if you've been just betting against every big geopolitical disruption, you've been rewarded over the past twenty years. So people think that's the smart thing
to do, is always bet against the shock. What we're seeing now is the shock is lasting longer than a lot of the optimists set up front, and that requires a bit more tactical decision making from investors.
So are you guys dialing back risk? Are you reallocating to safer I guess sectors in the market, What are you guys doing?
Well, what we're doing is focusing more on bottoms up idiosyncrat investment stories, identifying the individual companies that are likely well placed to be resilient to supply chain shocks, rather than betting with the whole market to improve quickly on some downturn.
We don't think it's covered right here.
Well, we're betting on companies that we think are have robustness in their supply chains that are going to be able to handle the near term disruption, even if it persists longer than the overall markets.
Say what about MEG seven? I mean, one of the great themes I'm seeing and I don't have an opinion on this, folks. Is some people saying to borrow the phrase, A few are saying load the boat, and others are saying, boy, you better do a new review of a repriced mag seven. Where are you on that?
So your first two questions, Tom, the combination of them is exactly why I think markets this year are so interesting. We're dealing with this negative supply shock that's coming from oil markets in the Straits. At the same time, we're also dealing with a historically huge positive supply shock from optimism around what AI is going to deliver, and the mags and are benefiting meaningfully not just recently but over the past couple of years from that optimistic supply shock.
It's hard for investors because they don't know how to manage these supply dynamics. We all grew up in markets worried about demand. It's the fact going to stimulate enough, Government's going to spend enough. This is all about supply too much, constraint too much AI.
I mean, Paul, let's be honest. April fourteen, twenty twenty six. Two things happen, JP Morgan starts the yearning SS and off and that's it for the Red Sox.
Yes, I know, for your restues there, Tom, All right, So Eric, what is the AI call here? I mean, let's let's just get away from the war for a second and focus on the fundamentals and what the One of the fundamental questions for the marketplace for the last three years arguably was AI. And I think that it went from being let's just buy anything remotely associated with AI. Now it's kind of the market's trying to differentiate a
little different winners and losers. How do you approachiate that big, big theme.
Well, look at Lizard, we're very optimistic about the reality the AI is going to meaningfully chase not just our working lives, but our investing lives for the rest of our professional careers.
It's easy to look.
At valuations of AI names today and say they're too expensive, you got to just back off. But I still think investors, you know, white collar employees up and down the income struct from across and across industries haven't really found them the transformative nature of the technology still, even a couple of years into the into the hype.
I just noticed on the screen JP Morgan twelve months trailing of forty two percent. This market doesn't feel like we're celebrating that. Maybe, you know, with all the trauma out there and this weekend as well, there's this gauze of negativity and the answer is a select group of equities have really performed. Yeah.
The way I think about it is that supplied demand dynamic again that the corporate earnings are seeing continued robust demand.
September into Q four, Q three.
Well, I think it's been the story the last twelve months. I'm actually a little pessimistic about how long that's going to last this year.
Single digit pessimistic or z it won't let that in the house single digit.
Yeah, I think we're seeing I think we're seeing a meaningful slow down in households and band it's coming from a slower labor market and it's coming from slower wage growth, and I think that's going to be tough to reconcile with the levels of consumer spedding we've seen in reci years.
What are we doing in the bond market these days? I mean, you could sit there in to your treasury oly three point eighty five percent. That seems like a very nice return for very little risk. Do I take credit risk on above and beyond that?
Well, here's where I go back to the inflation story, right because I am I am shocked that interest rate markets, that treasury yields in long term and in the short term haven't been more responsive to the inflationary dynamic we've seen over the past couple of months.
Oils.
We talked about oil, oils, a lot of it. Oil is not the whole story. There are also non oil imports coming out of the coming out of the Gulf that are going to be supply constrained, that are going to drive the inflation numbers up in the near term. And I'm surprised that we haven't seen long term, long term inflation expectations. I look at you know, five or five year break evens, the the market metric that used
to be very cool to watch for inflation expectations. Now I feel like no one pays attention to anymore, very sanguine about the inflationary path from here, and I think central banks can't afford to be that sing wine over.
The coming years. And I think we're god see more upward pressure on rates that Eric is to give us a nice start, Dana, I've scheduled here at about fifteen man is starting strong into seven o'clock hour. We say good morning, and across the nation the way you choose to listen to us, Good morning, Nathan Hager ninety two nine FM, Dodgers Radio in Washington, we say good morning, ninety two NINEF. But in Boston Bloombrig eleventh three to zero.
Here in somewhat frigid New York as well, Poss meeting with Eric Astro.
So Eric, I'm just looking at our good friend Torsten Slock from Apollo out with a note. Sure talk talking about gold and the reasons that went up and maybe the reasons it's gone down here, maybe just because people need liquidity in other parts of their portfolio, so they're selling gold. How do you guys think about gold here?
The way I think about it generally, is if if you and I are talking about gold fall, people are watching too much gold volatility, then things are probably not running very smoothly in the global supply chain picture. And I think just the focus on gold, more so than what the price is doing, is an indicator that people are very worried about the pipes of the global economy's
ability to deliver goods and services. And that's the same thing we're seeing in oil markets, same thing we're seeing in global food markets.
So how do you think about these? I mean, I think with this war, I'm not sure where we are in terms of our ultimatums here for Iran here, but it feels like it's gone longer than expected. It feels like I may go even a little bit longer here. Is there a positioning here that you guys feel comfortable about for the next three to six months?
Here?
Am I getting more conservative in my positioning? Am I just taking cash? What am I doing here?
Yeah?
So to a first order, at Lazard, we're not focused on trying to time the macro events. We don't think that's our edge, And I would humbly point out that those who do things their edge have seen some egg
on their face recently. What we're trying to do is identify the companies from a bottoms up perspective that have enough robustness on their balance sheets to tolerate prolonged periods of uncertainty on margins pond Tom, we are leaning against aggressive expansion into risk given that oil dynamic.
I did a survey with an intern into a survey for US over the weekend. They used AI did they how many people are waiting for healthcare to move? Let's begin with the why Why hasn't the healthcare sector moved?
I think the healthcare sector is really emblematic with some of the broader some of the broader demand dynamics we've seen in the US. Because within the healthcare sector, what we haven't seen that you would normally see at this point in the cycle is more R and D investment, more capital expenditure to really strengthen our ability to deliver
improve health care services. You haven't seen it. I think it's because business leaders are still pessimistic about the consumer's ability to really deliver persistent robust demand.
What's that better reserve doing here? I mean, I'm looking at the WORP function. I don't see much movement at all.
It's just shirt. I don't know.
Yeah, the way I think about it, the FED managers demand and everyone's talking about supply right now. I still think the big story is how calm markets and particularly investors who are pricing for FED action when you're looking at the work function, how calm they are about inflation. And I still expect us to see a bit of an upward turn in some of those pricing forum pricing for monetary tightening over the coming years.
Next two meetings, folks. April twenty nine. The end of this month seems distant away given all the war news, but there is April twenty nine. In June seventeen. I need to get in trouble on a Monday. You know that was a jaption. I'm doing my Easter thing and like God looked down at me and said, get Eric in trouble on Monday morning. That's a great way to stir Or's egg. And Adam Posen has framed out a
higher interest rate environment. Yeah, not the scale the magnitude they're talking about, but given all the events were sobered by this, what happens if we get a Posen or ZG five point two percent thirty year bond five point five percent thirty year bond, what actually happens?
So I think the main point of their piece is that the reason what's gonna the big trigger that's going to get you to those higher bond yields is this inflationary uptick. We've been doing the wage push with exactly
inflation from labor markets coming wage. I know you did talk right, would I would have questioned it, but that that inflationary impulse which has you know, we thought that was likely to be the case before the war, Yes, And what happened in the war was we pour gasoline on the inflation outlook, right, And I think the I think both from the oil and food sectors, we're going to see continued up ticket prices that are going to put even more pressure on long termials.
So what's the for the remainder of twenty twenty six? What's your what's the call here? Is it the you know, I'm just wondering if people are going to be buying the dip here like they've been buying the dip for the as you mentioned last twenty years.
Yeah, the big the big story is we think investors should spend less time focused on are you going to buy the dip? Are you going to sell the spike?
Because that's a very hard call to make.
So we figu where our portfolios are going to generate alpha, where we're going to deliver returns from our clients. It's from the bottoms up, it's from identify the companies systematically and fundamentally that are going to be robust to these geopolitical environments.
Eric, thank you so much, really really great to get us started. Eric, mister van Nostrin, he is with Lizard Asset Management. Stay with us. More from Bloomberg Surveillance coming up after this.
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Scott Demago picks up the piece of Senior Vice president pet of Fixed Income Alliance Bernstein. I guess just simply on what I would call bonds, but of course it's bills notes in bonds. What is the to do as we launch into April? A wonderful research notes, Scott. But you know, if I'm not panicking, if I'm capturing a coupon. What is the to do?
Hey, good morning Tom, Good morning Paul. Thanks thanks for having me. I think that to do here is to focus on duration. And you know, as this war has progressed, as you said, the past thirty eight days, we've seen the market really start to worry about inflation, and we've
seen that cause bond yields to sell off. We think we're getting to that point where the market's going to start worrying about the growth impact that higher energy prices have, and that's going to cause bonds to rally as we go through the second half of the year.
Does it matter what kind of bonds Paul's I am. He says credit risk, but boy, you know, do you just run to full faith and credit?
Yep.
Yeah.
We think there's value in investment grade names right, we sat good a good week for investment grade.
Last week.
We've seen yields in ig move out towards five percent, which historically has been a pretty attractive levels.
The faults remain low.
There should be a good environment where investment grade, especially and even parts of high yield should perform, should perform well, I think it does matter. There are going to be some central banks overseas that are going to be forced to hike interest rates as we go through a higher inslationary period, and there'll be other central banks, like we think in the US and Canada that will have a lot more patients and be able to potentially lower rates, if not keep rates at these levels.
Scott, what do you think of all the new issues coming out of the technology sector. It's not something that the bond market sees that that often, but boy, there's been a ton of flow coming out of those big tech games, and I'm guessing Alliance bursting is one of the first phone calls that the underwriters make.
Yeah, we definitely see our share of that activity.
I would say what a very positive dynamic is that these companies are coming, these hyper scale ors. They're coming with much bigger deals now. So rather than drip on the market every three months or six months and put that fear about the issuance that's coming, they've tended to do at least in the first quarter, much bigger deals. Do them across the maturity spectrum, do them across currencies right in both the US and in Europe, And I
think those deals clear pretty well. And as since the technology sector has been trading better in both IG and high yield in the US.
What do you think your federal Reserve is going to do here given all these crosswinds here Scott, with the geopolitics as well as just the fundamentals.
Yeah, I think they're going to sit on their hands for a little while and watch to see how this progresses. We had a good jobs number on Fry, but if you look at the last six months, the US economy has been averaging about fifteen thousand jobs. So we think the jobs market is kind of, you know, just ticking along at a fairly static level, which is a good thing to feds in a good place.
Do you see any lessening of this issuance? It seems every story I hear from helping Emily Graffeo and the restaurant in bonds, there's this huge demand to buy new paper. Is that going to sustain.
Yeah, we think so, as long as yields are at these levels. Again, IG at five percent, high yield at seven thirty seven forty deals are coming. They're pricing with a bit of a concession. There seems to be a lot of cash on the sidelines right seven point eight or so trillion in money markets. We think these higher yields will find buyers and the market will will keep clearing.
Scott, how do you think about just fixing come opportunities in the US versus rest of the world.
Here, Yeah, we think, I mean, we still like credit in Europe. We think that you know, that market's repriced a bit. The credit fundamentals remain very solid in Europe. So we have been picking up some US sorry, some European IG and European high Yeald names. We think in the US the emerging markets US dollar emerging markets are offering value here as well as you know, parts of that single B and double B part of the high
Yeald market. So there is a lot of opportunity. This repricing that we've seen in the past thirty or so days is creating some attractive opportunities.
Then bring it over to the equity market. Are you in the Campscott, with all of your expertise that your world is a value right now to interpret what to do in equities?
You know, talking to our equity colleagues who just sit across the floor, you know they're looking at us saying, look, as long as high yield spreads and credit spreads in general, they stay pretty well anchored. They stay optimistic on you know, what's happening in equity, so earnings continue to remain pretty robust.
We'll have to see what the next couple of quarters brings after this conflict in the Middle East, But so far with credit spreads anchored, you know, at these still fairly attractive levels, that's giving our equity colleagues, you know, a breath of relief, Paul, to me, this is.
The heart of the matter over the weekend. It's like so many of the recent wars. You know, I get the news and all that, then people like you and me. But the answer is it's removed from the investment financed dialogue. It seems to be like the private credit issue is way more important to the street right now.
Yep, you would have thought, how about a year, Scott here as we step back here in is twenty twenty six a year where Tom and I just clip coupons or can we get some capital return as well? How do you think about that?
I mean, I think the majority, we think the majority of your return is going to come from clipping clipping that coupon. But if we are right and the economy slows and we get into the second half of the year, the Federal Reserve can reduce interest rates one to two times.
We think you can.
Get some spread tightening, some lower interest rates, and you can get some capital appreciations as well.
The corporate market offers value.
You know, the muni market's repriced quite a bit the last two or three weeks, So we think the muni market, especially the long end, also offers values for those you know, US US clients.
So I mean in the muni market, you bring that up. I mean for the folks in the you know, high tax jurisdictions, the tax equipment yields are just really attractive. So how does that figure into your overall on occasion.
Yeah, for those I mean, you know, as we as we allocate capital, as we look at opportunities, we have a pretty complex set of algos that actually look at each client, what's they do they pay, what state tax do they pay, what federal tax bracket are they in, and we actually calculate expected returns at each bond, at each for each bond, you know, based on that unique
client circumstances. There is a lot of value out there, especially with the long end of the market where you're talking about, you know, tax equivalent yields, you know, pretty close to ten percent right in many cases. So you know, that's an area that we are encouraging clients to move into.
But it's a it's a bit of an orphan sector right now.
Scott, thank you so much. Was it a joint, Paul, to have like a rational conversation.
Exactly with a fixed income get away from all those people want to talk to fixed income people cocktail parties now, Tom, I mean, after being shunned for years because they had no coupon, now they're like pretty popular people.
Scott Demasia, that's popular. Alliance Percy, thank you, Thank you so much. Stay with us. More from Bloomberg Surveillance coming up after this.
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Dana's joining us on qual a Lumpar and of course with Webbush Securities. Dan explain what you learn traveling to the Pacific rim I mean, if anybody can do this with Ai it's you. Why do you have to go there?
Yeah, Look, you have to have feet on the ground to be talking not just to investors but companies. I mean, what's happening in Taiwan? What does memory look like in Korea? Are there shortages because of the straight the boys? These are the things and we've talked about in the show for many years, like it's what I believe, it's the only way you can navigate this environment to understand what demand looks like, and you know, trying to be understand some of the power that we're seeing.
What have you learned? The clear rumors here is there's a filter down from one hundred and nine dollars barre of oil into technology. Do you observe that?
Look, I'd say it right now, there's one clearly sentiment. It's a white knuckle environment for tech. But when you look at demand to supply in terms of just what we're seeing in terms of demand in Taiwan, it's robust. It's robust not just for an video, but it's robust for memory and for the components. And what that ultimately means is that's going to be bush for the hyperscalers.
And look the backdrop is obviously nervous, but you know, I just think it's very important in these environments to understand what the trends are because this will pass, and when it passes, you know, tech stocks. I continue to believe that's where you want to be positioned, especially in some of these cell offs that we've seen.
Dan, what's the conversation you're having with clients over there in Asia about some of the I guess structural concerns about software stocks in general, software as a service stocks in particular. How do you frame that after your clients?
Yeah, well, I think that's it's as negative as sentiment as I've seen software, and not just in the issue, but I think you're just across the world that I've seen probably going back ten years or more, because right now there's no every investor. They're focused on Semi's hardware
and no one wants touch software. And I continue believe that is a massively disconnected narrative from the reality of what we're going to see in the use cases from Microsoft to Oracle salesforce to service now and I think we're going through one of those periods here where these stocks are on massive seal. In my opinion, relative to where we see them heading as part of the AI revolution.
So how do you try to differentiate between potential winners potential lose in the software space, Dan, how do you step back and assess that?
Yeah, I think to some extent, I'll call it a good AI ghost trade in terms of anthropic and some of the worries about that these LM models anthropic in particular is going to basically unseat software. So I think if to separate between, are there some companies that could
be at risk? Yeah, of course, like to some of the pure please, but when you look at install based in trench stack players like Salesforce Service Now, Oracle, Cybersecurity, crowds, Tright palle out the look we talked to the customers, how are they going about architecture, how are they building these use cases? And that's where plunteer again again continues to also stick out positively.
From qualmum permanently as you, Dan ives with us, thrill he could be with us to get our Monday I started, Dan, Paul Sweeney taught me this MSFT equity EE, which is the earnings and estimate screen for beleaguered Microsoft forward twelve
month PE twenty one point two six. I mean, I know you're gonna tell me it's a bargain, it's a broken record, But we really want to understand Dan ives the durability of their margins down the income statement, given these shocks into Q three, into Q four, into the first quarter of twenty twenty seven, is it possible to guestimate that?
Look, I mean, when I look at Microsoft right net, we're talking about multiples in a free cash flow basis and on earnings that we haven't seen you going back eight years, ten years, you know, relative to where I believe, and I think from a margin perspective, it's ultimates free cash flow type of growth that's going to be in the mid to high teens next two to three years or higher than that. It all comes down to ten percent of their base have upgraded or gone down the path for AI.
If we're ten percent.
Right, this is a five hundred to five point fifty stock. If we're Ba's case right, it's six to six fifty. That's that's how I think it continues to be the most disconnected stock in tech period, right.
Paul, the debt load three point three percent, it's just backbreaking.
Hey, Dan, talk to us about cybersecurity here, how do you think about cybersecurity in a world of AI, because it just seems like, boy, the risk could be just exponentially higher.
Yeah, Paul, the budgets are going to increase some five percent of it to ten percent next two to three years. Because the surface area, if every person has any if every person has five agents working out there for enterprises, that's just going to expand the surface area. So what that means cybersecurity the budgets that much more strategic, that's not going to be unseated from anthropic or and AI.
It speaks to our view CrowdStrike, pow out, the checkpoint rubrics like these are names that are going to have massively bigger opportunities than they do today.
But it's another.
Example that the AI ghost trade is a black cloud over the sector.
So, Dan, what are some of your channel checks in Asia? What are they telling you these days? What are you learning over there?
I mean, if you look demand, the supply quarter of a quarter is accelerated, and that's not and that's really because you're seeing more and more enterprises go down this path. And I think what you're seeing is the deals are getting larger. You're seeing shortages when it comes to memory and components because it's a memory supercycle that's going on.
And with that speaks to our view. We're in year three of an eight to ten year build out and despite all the white Knuckles are seeing with Iranic, that's not changing that this fourth and Dush revolution's happening.
I got to get one question in here, Dan Briefest here and some of the parts on Apple, given their global plan of manufacture.
Look some of the parts in what I view as like a worst case scenario three twenty five. When I think best case scenario, I mean we're looking three seventy five to four hundred, and it just looked on this is one like obviously they were way to the game of AI. They couldn't do it internally. Now they'll they'll all by not putting cap backs hours they ultimately won
by accident. And I think Gemini is going to be the sort of pillar there and the consumer AI revolution is going to go through Apple, and that's why this is the name. Seventy five two hundred dollars will ultimately be the upside as they monetize AI. This is another one just you know, massively sell off based on what we're seeing in terms of the environment.
It's safe travels, Dad, safe, safe travels for all of us. A team observing this rises with Wedbush, of course, you've seen him with the industry of claim Stay with us. More from Bloomberg Surveillance coming up after this.
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Joe Mazzola joints US head of Trading and derivatives strategist at Charles Shrub Joe, what are you writing in a memo this morning? For ten am this morning? What's the Mazzola memo looked like?
Well, and I want to talk about kind of what we saw in March from our investors, and that was basically a little bit of de risking, guys, de risking versus broader disposure I think, or exposure. I think that you know, investors had a couple of choices given what they saw in the market volatility and the choppiness, and that was either you know, try to pick a rebound, like we've kind of seen over the last couple of years, you know, buying into the dip or you know, stay
invested with tighter controls. And they looked like they picked a little bit more of the latter than the former.
Are there certain sectors that they're favoring, Joe, Because we did see a rotation kind of starting late last year into this year before they ran conflict, where we had maybe some investors selling some of the high tech, high high value names for maybe some more cyclical stuff. Are we seeing that continue?
We did see that in March, so industrials and financials, you know, you can make the case that those are definitely cyclical sectors. They saw the inflows. Interestingly enough, technology saw outflows, but then the other one would be energy, And I thought that was interesting just kind of given what we saw with the overall oil oil market and
the makeup of the movement and energy overall. I mean, it's really kind of the only that utilities are really the only upper forming sectors in terms of relative strength
given the entire market. But it looked like our investors maybe saw that as an opportunity to maybe fade some of that move you know, you had some stocks up thirty forty fifty, some of the services conglomerates, and you know, one of the top fives on the list urd that sales was occidental, which I don't think I've ever seen in the three years we've done the stacks.
Joe, what are your clients? What are the schwop clients when they buy? Did they buy ETFs? Did they buy individual names? Do they buy funds? What did they buying these days?
So really interesting guys usually in the top ten. So what we do is in published top top five, but you know, I look at the top twenty five, so in the top ten, you tend to see one, two. You know, sometimes on a very distant, very distant lists, sometimes you'll see three. This time we saw five out of the top ten were diversified ETPs, which was really
interesting to me. And that kind of goes back with that theme of wasn't really de risking as much as it was diversifying and instead of maybe trying to pick some winners, they wanted to stay investors, wanted to stay involved in the market.
Just didn't you know.
It was one of those months where there was such choppings, so it was hard to kind of pick the winners, stay involved but diversify a little bit. That's what we saw.
We start strong this hour Joe Mozzola with us Charles Schwab, head of Training and derivative strategy as well. Is there a bet on the market right now, Joe? Like the fancy institutional people, Paulo's on this charge and like long short in the CTAs and the rest of it, are they placing bets or they hunkered down?
You know what I would say, Tom, is that coming into probably mid March, you saw that the majority of institutions were hedged. You know, I look at something like skew on the S and P five hundred around ninety five, ninety six percentile. That's actually started to wane a little bit. These last couple of weeks. We've seen some of those
hedges come off a little bit. A lot of that had to do with the roles that we saw in some of the end of March hedges that kind of move forward into June, so you know, they tend to
be quarterly, So a lot of that came off. Some of the GAMA exposure, some of the short dam exposures specifically with the marketmakers the dealers that kind of rolled off a little bit, so I think that's had something to do with some of the some of the benign movements that we've seen over the last couple of days in the markets, where yes, you know, futures have moved, but intra day we've seen some of that come down
a little bit. We've seen the vis go from about thirty one thirty two down to about twenty five where it's at right now. And I think, guys, we're all this kind of waiting on pins and needles for the next announcement, in the next global macro announcement. When we ask our our investors, hey, you know, what what are you waiting for in April? Like what's kind of scaring you?
Or you know, what's what's driving your investment, and they're saying, look, there's just so much geopolitical risks out there right now that we're getting a little bit more bearish.
Joe. I mean, I guess with some of this, when we see the selling days, it just to me, at least, it doesn't feel like there's panic out there, right are you what are you seeing in your flows data? Because point nobody sees more flows than folks at Charles Swamp.
Yeah, you know, we use that that term capitulation, and I would agree with you, Paull. I don't think we've seen that yet. I think that uh, you know, up until until we get back above maybe that two in a day moving average. Looking at technicals right now is a little bit difficult, you know, for some support levels.
You know, I look at things like relative strength and it's just really difficult to use that or look at something again RSI to say our market's over sold once again, I think you need to be in a longer term bullish market. I don't know that we're there yet. We might, you know, we might get back there this week, and you know, all this becomes noise in a couple of months.
Who knows, but.
There is, uh, you know, there is this kind of conscious optimism. And that's what I would say is what we're hearing, for the most part, uh from from our investors. And what we tend to see is, you know, the difference between what they're doing and what they're saying. So what they did in March is, like I say, it
wasn't de risking as much as it was diversification. But going forward, and this is what's interesting, we always ad them, you know, what do you, what do you see for the month I had and in April, what we're seeing is kind of the highest level of bearishness that we've seen in a while.
Now.
We haven't necessarily seen that inequity outflows, and you don't You're not just seeing that in terms of SCHWAP, but just the whole market wide. You haven't seen a ton of equity outflows. But I think that there is just this this this cautious optimism that we don't know what the next shooter drop is going to be.
Joe Masol, thank you so much for the brief, very valuable. Really appreciate it.
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