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Breaking Down Retail Sales and Higher for Longer Rates

Jun 18, 202433 min
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Episode description

Watch Tom and Paul LIVE every day on YouTube: http://bit.ly/3vTiACF.

Bloomberg Surveillance hosted by Tom Keene and Paul Sweeney

June 18th, 2024

Featuring:

  • Jeffrey Rosenberg, Senior Portfolio Manager, Systematic Fixed Income at BlackRock, discusses immaculate disinflation, nominal GDP, and how much longer the Fed can go on higher for longer rates
  • Dana Telsey, CEO at Telsey Advisory Group, reacts to retail sales and discusses consumer health
  • Ruchir Sharma, CIO and founder at Breakout Capital Partners and Chairman at Rockefeller International, talks about his new book on capitalism and gives his outlook for the US economy and markets
  • Bloomberg's Lisa Mateo with her Newspaper Headlines


Get the Bloomberg Surveillance newsletter, delivered every weekday. Sign up now: https://www.bloomberg.com/account/newsletters/surveillance 

See omnystudio.com/listener for privacy information.

Transcript

Speaker 1

Bloomberg Audio Studios, Podcasts, radio news.

Speaker 2

This is the Bloomberg Surveillance Podcast. I'm Tom Keene along with Paul Sweeney. Join us each day for insight from the best in economics, finance, investment, and international relations. You can also watch the show live on YouTube. Visit the Bloomberg Podcast channel on YouTube to see the show weekday mornings from seven to ten am Eastern from our global headquarters in New York City. Subscribe to the podcast on Apple, Spotify, or anywhere else you listen and always I'm Bloomberg Radio,

the Bloomberg Terminal, and the Bloomberg Business App. Jeffrey Rosenberg joins us now with Blackrock, and it's not in a FED day. We're all lathering about the FED, so Jeff, we're not going there right now. Jeff, what are you doing in a system system systematic bond portfolio, a mixed multisector bond portfolio when spreads are priced to perfection? What does your action plan is? Do you adjust into the second half?

Speaker 3

Yeah, it's a great question, Tom, because you know, spreads are not particularly attractive. You know, we're at or through mid cycle tights, so there's not a lot of kind of anticipation of price performance from spread compression here and so generally it's a more defensive positioning because you've got more downside than upside. But your upside is basically the carry, and the carry is attractive mostly for the total yield,

less for the spread. You know, So we've been allocating you know, less than we would otherwise be to the lower end of high yield. There's a bit of a different story there, and a bifurcation, really big bifurcation kind of mirrors the bifurcation that we see between say, you know, small caps large caps in the equity world, and that bifurcation is kind of double be's to triple c's. That's where you really see a very different part.

Speaker 2

Of the market.

Speaker 3

So you got to play a lot more defense in that part of the market. It is pricing appropriately for the default risk aggregate. The default risks are very low, so we feel pretty good about the spread exposure that we're taking. We think you can take that spread exposure. But again you got to think about that as as carry and not price appreciation.

Speaker 2

Paul Sween the here it is the Bloomberg Total Return Fund, the old Lehman Index, Bloomberg has it now. It's definitive a breakout price up, yield down. I got a little better price performance and the total return index exactly.

Speaker 4

Tom Jeffery got his master's in computational financier.

Speaker 2

Curdie Curdie Melon.

Speaker 4

I mean, that's meth right.

Speaker 2

He sat there one day and he looked at Tepper and he said, should I go robots or Temper? And he went Temper. He went Tepperate.

Speaker 4

I mean, who doesn't computation finance MC Carnegie mellon way too much? Meth so, Jeffrey, Tom was calling out earlier today he noticed that the Home Depot comes to the market with a ten billion dollar debt offering. They had forty seven billion dollars in demand. Talk to us about the investment grade market. People are just dying to get paper and get yield. Is that kind of where you take away from a deal like Home Depot.

Speaker 2

Yeah.

Speaker 3

I mean if you look in the credit markets, and I talked about, you know, probably the weakest part of the public credit markets, which is kind of triple C part of high yield, But if you talk about investment grade, it's a very different story. And really again this mirrors this kind of small cap large cap story in terms

of what company's interest rates sensitivity is. Right, A lot of questions about, you know, where is the bite of higher interest rates being felt, and it is really this kind of bifurcation that we're seeing, and the investment grade side is really well prepared and well positioned. Partly that was because we had such a long peer period of zero and low interest rates that allowed companies to really

fortify their balance sheets extend debt maturities. Most of the investment grade cap stack is in fixed rate debt with long maturities, and so you're seeing very strong interest coverage performance even in an environment where you'd expect some degradation given the increase in interest rates, and there's just not that much rollover that's happening. So the fundamental side of

investment grade credit risk is very supportive. You have a tremendous amount of demand and you haven't had an incentive and this is the first case in a very long time, you haven't had an incentive for issuers to kind of front run or front load I should say front load.

They're refinancing. What they're doing is they're pushing it out obviously because the coupons that they have on their balance sheets are the lowest ones that they're going to have have, So it's reducing the amount of kind of rollover issuance that you would otherwise have. And so when you see these new issues come to market, there's just there's just a lot more demand for them. As you're highlighting in the some debot case.

Speaker 2

John Templeton years ago, there will be a shortage of bonds. You say, demands insane. Paul correctly brings up home depot where we had one hundred I can't remember now, we had like a one hundred and thirty seven b pick up in the forty year yield from what was expected, a lower yield, a more attractive return because of demand. Jeff Rosenberg, is there a shortage of bills, notes and bonds?

Speaker 3

Well, Tom, we got to be a little careful about about that, because you know, we're going to switch the lens from corporate issuance, where balance sheets have been you know, strengthened, they've extended debt maturities, they've been relatively conservative, specially on the investment grade side, and then flip the lens to

the government side, US treasure issuance. We have a very different picture, and obviously that's the fiscal debate, the unsustainability of fiscal policy, the increasing amount that the private sector will have to fund that issuance, and the eventual raising of treasury coupon sizes you know, been hanging out kind of in bills here, But we're going to have some pressure eventually. We think that pressure will show up in the back end, and it's not going to be a

case of too little supply. It's going to be a case of the markets having to digest ever increasing amounts of supply, and that we think, you know, is going to end up being a pricing story for the back end of the curve. So it's going to be a different story than what you're talking about here for the investment grade market.

Speaker 2

And Jeff, the next time you're on, I want to talk about medig Lean and Miller, who at your Carnegie Mellon invented how we think about capital structure. But just simply to say, are we going to see new corporate bondation wins like what home Depot did yesterday? Yes, this week looks like a thirty billion dollar week. Is one of the reports from Bloomberg.

Speaker 3

Yeah, I mean in terms of optimal debt structure. I think, you know, particularly again on the investment grade side, a lot of companies you know, got to the right point given the prior interest rate tax regime. Another thing that we're going to talk about here, you know, as we moved through the election and the fiscal policy debate is

corporate taxes. And you know, it's the proper tax rate and the deductibility of interest, you know, and and and there were some changes in the tax code that limited the deductibility for highly leveraged firms. That changes the optimal default point. But for investment grade companies, as you see that tax rate goes up, you know, you may see you know, some more attractiveness in terms of issue ins and that can shift how much issuance we're getting.

Speaker 2

Are that tax we're out of Jeff Rosenberg never enough time with Blackrock, thank you. We have in the studios the number one voice and retail and we're gonna go to luxury because that's what's out there.

Speaker 4

And Tom another CJ.

Speaker 2

Lawrence, Yeah, I know, she's gifted. I mean, she's gifted.

Speaker 1

C J.

Speaker 2

Lawrence and all that. Dan, I'm gonna cut to the chase. The Lewis Viewton store at fifty seventh Street in Fifth Avenue is a gorgeous modern white glass store of windows that I can't afford our No wants to bulldoze it and build a new building. Five people have said why why?

Speaker 1

The reason why companies, especially luxury companies, reinvest because the ante keeps going up and you have to be able to give new experiences to that luxury consumers that they'll pay those dollars for those luxury items. Look what he's got across the street. He spent a fortune on Tiffany. The Louis Vuitton store hasn't been touched in years. Right, if he needs to be have another brand that is on the same part you have to invest.

Speaker 2

Is luxury the AI we don't talk about. I'm looking at Aermez's estimated forward pe. It comes down Paul to forty seven times earnings. I mean, help me here with the effervescence of the luxury business.

Speaker 1

Is it in Nvidia like it feels like it is for one reason, the creative products that they have, but the continued expanding customer base. Baby boomers, one of the wealthiest generations, is passing down that wealth to millennials. You look at the Chinese consumer and see what's.

Speaker 2

China doing right now? It's a bloom bloom. I know you're the only one I know optimistic on.

Speaker 1

China now, not optimistic on it. You were still having very cautious trends out of China where the Chinese are spending, or within China or within other local Asia regions. Not seeing a return really to Europe. You're not seeing a return to the US.

Speaker 4

Yeah, I see that when I walk walk to Penn Station every day. I don't see them on Fifth anyone.

Speaker 2

So if you're gonna walk to Penn Station today to sit on this chair, you're are you taking this Korski home? Yeah? I might have to.

Speaker 4

I might be going to Hoboken today. Little problems with Penn Station here today, Dana, talk to us about the US consumer. Here, we got some retail sales numbers say a little bit weaker than forecast. Talk to us about I hear there's a bifurcation in the marketplace with the consumer.

Speaker 1

So overall I call the US consumer and today's numbers definitely highlight it squishy. We have a squishy US consumer, and frankly, it's every income level where we've seen a moderation and spend and we've seen that trade down. Look where the big sales increases are coming. Same store sales increases of better than three percent at the off pricers like TJX Ross Stores Burlington, they're getting the benefit of the trade down. And you take a look at the

discounters they're getting that too. But overall, luxury sales are moderating. If you have newness and new trends, it's working.

Speaker 2

Tom.

Speaker 1

You're gonna like this wide leg denim jeans. The wider, the better, and that's the trend out there.

Speaker 4

Got better than skinny jeans.

Speaker 2

We go to surveillance, Fashion Icon and Lisa Mattel. Lisa, we're going to see you in wye jeans.

Speaker 5

Correct. I was told by my daughter that I am not cool because I wear skinny jeans. I have to go with the wide leg jeans in today.

Speaker 2

See what you learn on surveillance, rich make the single best idea with data and and and Lisa today, Paul continue, So if.

Speaker 4

I look at a Walmart, for example, what am I seeing at the Walmart basket? What's in a Walmart basket these days? Is it more essentials? Let's don't discretion.

Speaker 1

So think about what Walmart is. Nearly sixty percent of their business is grocery. Wow, so you're getting grocery in there plus the other merchandise, and it's a combination of both. And you're seeing consumers today, even with essentials, they're trading down to private label. I've heard about the pet stores recently. We're consumers for their pets. They're trading down to private label goods for their pets.

Speaker 2

Even we'll talk about single best idea, but I want to talk about the big money that everybody that follows surveillance follows with luxury. I remember, I think it was Laura Piano. It was like a billion dollar transaction. It changed the industry. This is years and years ago. Todds of Italy, which I would say is pretty conventional brand, spend over four hundred million dollars on a shoe brand

nobody knows in America Roger Vivier. Explain why someone spent four hundred million dollars on a shoe that basically no one knows in America.

Speaker 1

Because what they see is the opportunity and acquire Roger Vivier. They feel that they have the creative talent to enhance the brand, open physical stores and distribution and make it a global brand. And they feel that their insights into the global customer will help drive that brand. When you think of brands that are smaller that where can you grow? I mean, I think one of LVMH's most significant transactions of the past few years has to be Tiffany. And look how they're reinventing.

Speaker 2

Is that working for them?

Speaker 1

Yes, they're getting more profit out of Tiffany. It's catering to a younger customer. Now they're modernizing and updating the stores and capturing a wider customer base.

Speaker 2

Tom Roger Vivier.

Speaker 4

It's on East sixtieth Street.

Speaker 5

Can go there and check it out today.

Speaker 2

Yes, she was there yesterday. It's why I brought it. Is it promotional right now? Now? I walked in the door and said, I'm saving you money? And is luxury promotional right now?

Speaker 5

Now?

Speaker 1

Inventory levels are lean for luxury. It's not promotional. The changes you have one of them raising prices like Chanelle. The others are holding and they're working on newness in order to drive demand.

Speaker 2

I don't have it in front of me. I'm sorry, I'm not brief done it but Dana Telsey, did Chanelle just throw somebody out on the street and they're going to bring in somebody new for design and all that looks.

Speaker 1

Like someone new is coming for over thirty years. No, it is not me.

Speaker 2

What does Chanelle need to do to recapture what they have?

Speaker 1

I mean, they're doing pretty well in terms of the gains they had, but I think overall the continued modernization and cut out the big price increases. They're not our mes. Yes, they're a luxury brand, but you can't go to the ilk of something.

Speaker 2

And Valentine and all the other outrageously expensive ones are all going to pull back prices.

Speaker 1

No, they're not pulling back prices. They're at the right level. Chanelle one higher than everybody else trying to capture a mez and our mez is in a different league than anybody.

Speaker 4

I didn't know that single best idea anybody talking to your clients about this the target.

Speaker 1

There's a couple that we're talking about Bathroom body Works and the inflection point to growth in the second half of the year. We're talking about t j X and the continued drum beat of increasing market share and increasing gains. We're talking about Costco because of the market share at gains. And we're also you know, we're talking about you talked about Denim Jean's, We're talking about Levi's.

Speaker 2

You're in San Francisco right now saying we got to go why jeans for Lisa Matail?

Speaker 1

Yeah, and it's working. Not only are they doing wide legs for Lisa, but take a look at their wholesale business where they've strengthened the distribution channels that they're going through. They're doing outfitting top to bottom with lifestyle, buy a shirt and buy the Janes, not just one, and they're capturing more of the women's customer.

Speaker 2

And finally, the miracle that is Abercranbrie and Fitch. Are you kidding me? How did they? I mean it's like GameStop? How did they do? And this is legit? How Dana Telsey over on Fifth Avenue they had Hunky Boy out in the street lined up. That all went away. Then what's happened doubled?

Speaker 1

Then what happened? Fran Horowitz came in as CEO she was there since twenty fourteen. Promoted to CEO. COVID gave her the time to assess data the store wasn't working.

Speaker 2

What do we do?

Speaker 1

She took a look at where she wanted her customer to be twenty five to thirty five? What do you need to give them? Outfits not items? Where do you need to sell it in stores that are inviting? Took away the fragrance, turned up the lights and now you can buy outfits and you wouldn't know it's the Abercrombie the past.

Speaker 2

One final question, No, no, I'm just amazed by one final question. I think it's supportant for our Boston audience, good morning, But across this nation? What is the pixie doest of TJX? How did they execute where so many others failed?

Speaker 3

You know what?

Speaker 1

They're people. They have the tenure of talent that have relationships with brands and merchants that they're able to assort the store better than others, capturing a wide price price assortment, capturing better brands and a value and opening compelling stores in great locations.

Speaker 2

What are the department stores that your heritage, your heart and soul is Bergdorf? Goodman?

Speaker 1

Is it?

Speaker 2

Is it around in five years?

Speaker 1

I think Bergdorf will be around in five years. I don't know who's going to own it. But I think it'll be around in five years.

Speaker 2

Do we still want to shop at department stores or we you know, is is Lisa going to be over at whatever? It's vivier today?

Speaker 1

You need new life to be breathed into the department stores because otherwise, what would you do?

Speaker 2

What would you do to your burg Lisa put the windows back on Fifth Avenue? That was Daylight, our original.

Speaker 1

On Fifth Avenue? Burgdorfs has What would you do to Burgdorf? I mean to Burgdorfs, I'd almost take a look at my customer base, invite them in capturing that younger customer base. Have events in the store and see what exclusives and limited collections designers can give so that you can only get it at Burgdorfs.

Speaker 2

Would I know by them.

Speaker 1

That's what it feels like. Would be the one look at lots of Mauritane in Paris. If you visit a lost of Mauritane in Paris, We're going to it's beautiful.

Speaker 2

Absolutely, We're taking the show to Paris in the fall.

Speaker 1

I'll join you.

Speaker 2

proNT right at the top of front on the old restaurant.

Speaker 5

Which is unning.

Speaker 1

Yes, it's done.

Speaker 2

Kill that. Don't use clothes. I mean, all the kids, Lisa, they want to go to you. They don't want to go to or whatever. They want to go to hand me down store.

Speaker 5

The consignment shops because you can get the great deal, the great brands for a lower price and old is new again. There you go.

Speaker 2

Okay, Dana Telsea, thank you so much.

Speaker 4

Thank you.

Speaker 2

It's great. And if Paul said, what what Telsey Advisory Group did? I remember the first day she came out, I was like, yeah, you know whatever.

Speaker 4

Well, it's interesting, Thomas. You know, there was a period of time, maybe fifteen years ago where a lot of animals left his cell side because they changed the business rules. Elliot Spitzer all that with the investment banking took a lot of the economics out of the business. Whole lot of animals went to the cells, went to set up their own shops. I'm talking dozens of ir number one animals.

Speaker 2

Yes, I can.

Speaker 4

Count three or four on my hand that are survived and thrived. Dana's one of them surviving, yeah, and and and thriving. You know, it's just it's a tough business.

Speaker 2

You should see her do a channel check like in your mess. Oh my god. The whole place that the staff freezes comes in the door. They just.

Speaker 4

Job their jobs, go to the malls and go to store and I don't know, and they do that on like that Friday after Thanksgiving.

Speaker 2

It's seventy percent of our economy. Are you bullish on retail quickly?

Speaker 3

Yeah?

Speaker 1

I think there's opportunities in retail. You know why singles come on see? I mean it definitely is TJX. It's going to keep moving higher.

Speaker 2

Dana, thank you so much.

Speaker 4

Just had a nice run.

Speaker 2

This is a joy. It's a three hour conversation with Russier Sharma with a book talked about what went wrong with capitalism. Can't say enough about it. Hugely readable, like all let's work you redefine the commodity super psycle years ago holds court at the Rockefeller Foundation. It's been way too long. Come back again. We'll do a two segment interview to talk about fourteen other things. Megan Decai at LSE has a definitive book on the success and failure

of Marxism called Marxist Revenge. The exploitation is still in the air, and there's a lot of people out there that feel with capitalism. What went wrong with capitalism is an exploitation of so many within society. Is that where we are today, back with MAGNETSI and Marx.

Speaker 6

No Tom, I make exactly the opposite point in the book, which is the fact that capitalism is no longer being allowed to work. What we have today is a very distorted form of capitalism. Capitalism at its core is supposed to be pro competition, pro churn, pro creative destruction. Instead, what we have today is a capitalism that is viewed

as being pro big business, pro incumbent. And what I do in the book is to trace how over the last one hundred years capitalism has been distorted systematically, decade after decade. So in terms of what we have today is in a way of socialized risk for everyone, most gallingly for the rich, which Bernie Sanders of course called socialism for the rich. But I think that it's socialized risk across the spectrum. And so therefore we have a very distorted form of capitalism. That's the thrust.

Speaker 2

So if we have Trump Biden, let's assume that Biden is going to continue the theme you're talking about, Can Trump bring a second term Trump? Can he bring an adjustment to a more constructive capitalism?

Speaker 6

Well, Unfortunately, the evidence doesn't say so based on the first term, because what did he do in the first term? Some of the stuff that I think sounded very good, like let's do deregulation in terms of the fact that for every two for every regulation that we put in place, let's withdraw to instead. By the end of the term, Trump had instituted as many regulations as past precedents. As I say in the book that one of the most telling statistics is that over the last twenty years, America

has instituted three thousand new regulations a year. That's really a huge increase, and it's withdrawn in total only twenty regulations over twenty years. So this is a spectacular sort of increase in the regulatory environment. But it's the suite of government habits that as speak about in the book, including the spending as a share of the economy, which we all know about, the bailout culture, you know that

we speak about. So I think that you know, it's the suite of government habits, the micromanagement of the business cycle. And I think that that is what we need to understand that what we have today is a very distorted version of capitalism, very different from anything the founders had in mind, and very different from even the kind of capitalism that America practiced three or four decades ago.

Speaker 4

Talk to us about protectionism, because it seems like the US or the West versus China, whether that's it's broader than just a technological cold work, seems like it's much broader than that. How do you think about how the West should deal with China these days?

Speaker 6

Well, in terms of the West is doing what it is, which is in terms of raising protectionist barriers and stuff

like that. But I think that the bigger problem I have with the Biden administration is that they're invoking some of China's bad habits, including, you know, having an industrial policy now, and I feel that this misunderstanding of what's succeeded in China, and also the fact that we you know, we are once again spending more government money on stuff we don't know whether it's going to work or not.

So we've had this massive stimulus, massive industrial policy. So I feel that we know that we still are in awe of China at a time when the Chinese growth model has faded anyway. So that's what I find is the great contradiction of the plan, and instead we are wasting billions, if not trillions of dollars on allocating capital. Once again, the government's involvement is just increasing with an

industrial policy. So what we have to as I keep saying, is that it's like, whether it's because of China or using that like excuse, it's become another reason for the government to get more involved in the economy.

Speaker 4

So, you know, you mentioned kind of the deficits in it that I've been I'm sixty years old. I've been hearing about that my whole life.

Speaker 2

Right, is it a problem now? Is that an issue now? No?

Speaker 6

I think that's a very relevant point. So therefore in the book, I don't I show that that's not the central problem that I'm focused on, because I know that it's a lot like crying wolf, because you know, for the last thirty to forty years, there's been so much talk about this under Reagan, you know, like we switched to deficit financing and through even though he did nothing really to cut on spending. So I agree with you that this is this book is not just about deficits

and debt. It's about the suite of government habits. It's about the regulatory culture it's about the bailout culture which has you know done. It's the micromanagement of the business cycle. So it's much more than that. But yes, what's happened now with the debt and deficits is that because it's thinking is crept in that it doesn't matter. We have now taken this to a different level. So now we're running deficits of six percent of GDP in the middle of a full employment economic recovery.

Speaker 2

I'm going to bring this full circle with your career at Morgan Stanley and over to Rockefeller International. On their website, they have a memo of nineteen forty seven where the Rockefeller family stepped up for India which was basically in complete chaos in nineteen forty seven. We've had Rajan on from Booth School, Chicago the day after the election in India. Now, is this a new India where it's not only Modi but Gandhi and the Congress Party can actually make it

a two party government? Is that what we've learned in the Indian election?

Speaker 6

Now, I think in the Indian election, what we've learned, Tom is that India is very much a federal nation, which is that the states have a lot of power. I know we here like to simplify it a bit by thinking about it as the center and Modi, but even when Modi was in power, I think in India the states have a lot of power, just like in the United States a lot, and we sort of overplay what the influence of the central government is and underappreciate

what the state governments in India do. So I think that in India the big success story which could be is one of compares to federalism, but different states of competing with each other to get more investment, attract more jobs, create more infrastructure. I think that is the real India long term story is.

Speaker 2

A Rockefeller International. Are you based in New York?

Speaker 6

Yes, if you can come by more often, I'm very happy to come by and speak about it currently. As I said, my focus is obviously, you know, like on the book, but happy to chat about anything.

Speaker 2

No, of course, for sure. Sharma, thank you so much. You did a look at the front pages around the world, Lisa. You send me the list, which I've already forgotten because I'm in a heat wave. But it was brilliant.

Speaker 4

You know.

Speaker 5

What I like to is that we always have this conversation about colleges and the system and how much it costs. So this one really So you remember when the University of Arts in Philadelphia closed down, left all these kids in limbo, which.

Speaker 4

It's been around forever.

Speaker 5

Yeah, like one hundred and fifty years.

Speaker 4

Yeah, okay, I know this one.

Speaker 5

Yeah, So so it left these kids. The problem was that a lot of the colleges had already cut off admissions for the fall, so these kids were left in limbo. But it's not just you Art's I mean, enrollment is falling enrollment causing other schools to close their door. But this is the point I wanted to point out. This is from the State Higher Education Executive Offices Association. They say nationally, as many as half of students whose campus is closed, they don't go back to school, and that's

a big problem. The others who do go, they lose credits and then they wind up paying more money somewhere else because they lost those credits.

Speaker 2

They have to Yeah, they love the credit thing and the family can do that they basically had to do with.

Speaker 5

And you pay more, well you're paying more.

Speaker 2

But there's there's a lot of schools that say that's not We're not going to take that course. We're not going to take that. This is a really important idea of Paul, because there's such a focus, particularly on the East Coast. Good Morning, East Coast on twelve schools or maybe one hundred schools, and there's a zillion other schools out They're going, Okay, how are we going to pay for the faculty? I know, do we really need athletics. There's a lot of that going on.

Speaker 4

And if they don't have an endowment or big enough endowment, they're just so dependent upon the tuition that they have.

Speaker 2

Well that's a stick in Europe. The European schools are basically broke, and so they want Americans badly. I mean, that's I'm speaking.

Speaker 4

You know, you said, you know, kids around here in the Tristate are going down to the SEC schools that you know, the Alabama's the LSUS because they'll pay full out of state tuition and the states love that. So that didn't happen in my day.

Speaker 5

But anyway, now, Okay, so companies trying to get workers back to the office. We've always been talking about this. They've been offering free mails, yoga classes, all these kind of things. Parties. Okay, but The new tactic is to get workers back to the office by getting rid of hot desking. I didn't understand what this was until to rend the artic. It's a thing. It's when people share desks,

so you don't have a perms. You come into work with let's say your laptop, and you have to find a desk, and it's like this scramble and search for a desk. It's sparking some hygiene concerns. People are saying they don't like it. They have to wipe everything down. They don't have their fancy chair, you know, they have to search for a chair. So a lot of companies

are changing this. They're trying to give workers back that permanent desk, you know with the family pictures and all that kind of thing, to make them feel like it's home again.

Speaker 4

So it's kind of like the anti we work, you know, correct, Yeah, exactly, Okay, so that we work. It works for a lot of companies. You know a lot of companies that works great for it, but for some other companies you need your own space.

Speaker 2

I may I suggest that everybody's overthinking this and it's just with the pandemic, there was no commute right and that's where they're commute. Yeah, on behalf of all of Bloomberg's surveillance. We're commuting pro exactly. We want to commute. Good morning, Apple car Play and Android play in the Bloomberg Business app. It's free for your commute. We'll make your commute safe. Thank and better. Thank you for that promotion, Lisa.

Speaker 5

Next, check all right, football's Christmas games on Netflix. How much are these ads going for? Okay? This is according to Adweek, five ad packages for pro footballs Christmas games on Netflix will each cost at least five million dollars. They're categorized by when they air, but each package has to include at least eight thirty second ads for each company. We're talking about Gatorade, Bryzon, bes A, Microsoft.

Speaker 4

These are super Bowl almost pressure, yeah, because if you.

Speaker 5

Think about it, I mean the Super Bowl. What's seven million for a thirty second spot during Super Bowl fifty eight? So it's close to it. But they, you know, they have a choice. They can go to the Chief Stealers game that's set for one pm Eastern and then you have the Ravens Texans at four thirty pm. But you're just starting to hear about how much people are going to pay. Companies are going to pay for these ad packages just for Christmas Day. It's going to ruin my Christmas Day.

Speaker 2

Okay.

Speaker 5

We used to say I want to watch movies. Now I'm stuck watching.

Speaker 2

Does the Detroit Lions play on Christmas Day? Is excuse?

Speaker 4

Thanks Thanksgiving?

Speaker 2

Right? Are they Thanksgiving? No?

Speaker 5

No chief stealers?

Speaker 3

Bringing on the lawn?

Speaker 5

Sex?

Speaker 2

Maybe two games? Okay, you got anything else or that?

Speaker 5

Oh yes, okay, you know we had a guest yesterday. He was talking about how our kids wanted to be social media influencers. So I that stood out to me. And I found an article today that actually says they're not making much money, so she can go and show her kids. This article from the Wall Street Journal. Platforms are given out less money for these influencers. Brands are being pickier, TikTok possibly shutting down in twenty twenty five, all these things going against it. How much are they

really making? There's Neo Reach, it's an influencer marketing agency. They said last year forty eight percent of these creators earned about fifteen thousand or less. That was about it. Yeah, and then you had maybe thirteen percent who did like one hundred thousand.

Speaker 3

You know.

Speaker 2

So if dad says go get a real job.

Speaker 5

Yes, tell them to go to the Wall Street Journal. Read the article, send it to your kids.

Speaker 2

Lisa Mateo, thank you so much. The newspaper report, Lisa Manteo, thank you so much. This is the Bloomberg Surveillance Podcast, bringing you the best in economics, finance, investment, and international relations. You can also watch the show live on YouTube. Visit the Bloomberg Podcast channel on YouTube to see the show weekday mornings from seven to ten am Eastern from our

global headquarters in New York City. Subscribe to the podcast on Apple, Spotify, or anywhere else you listen, and always on Bloomberg Radio, the Bloomberg Terminal, and the Bloomberg Business app.

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