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This is the Bloomberg Surveillance Podcast. I'm Tom Keene along with Paul Sweeney. Join us each day for insight from the best in economics, finance, investment, and international relations. You can also watch the show live on YouTube. Visit the Bloomberg Podcast channel on YouTube to see the show weekday mornings from seven to ten am Eastern from our global headquarters in New York City. Subscribe to the podcast on Apple, Spotify, or anywhere else you listen and always I'm Bloomberg Radio,
the Bloomberg Terminal, and the Bloomberg Business app. Now we're thrilled to have for you, and you know I call it from October to October's ago the Yardnni and Kompora Market Ralph and Kampora, the technician and ed Yard Denny of Yale with economics and markets called this great bullmarket and we're thrilled at mister Ardenny, Doctor Eodenny could be in our studios today. Where is your SMP target And with the report of disinflation and sluggish retail sales, does
that make you move it up? Can we make some news here on SMP six thousand?
Well, I've been actually getting a lot of people asking me, am I going to raise my numbers? And I thought my numbers are pretty aggressive about a year ago.
Yeah, but you're on surveillance now, so we got to make some news.
Well we were fifty. You know, my target is still fifty four hundred. I still use it, but it's a bullmarket, you know. I can't time it exactly and precisely, but I think we're heading towards six thousand by next year and sixty five hundred the year after that. So that's a twenty five percent increase.
My great theme, and I say this to the ds Edyard Denny, ed Hymen and others. My mantra from my father is corporations adapt and adjust. Right, How are corporations adapting and adjusting to ed Yard Denny's roaring twenties?
Well, I think you're seeing a tremendous amount of spending on technology, not just number one. Well, you know, if you look at capital spending in current dollars, fifty percent of that now is going to technology capital spending. And that's an understatement because it doesn't include things like trucks. I mean, why would truck be you know it? Well, the truck is the device, and the logistics software is
what runs it. There, everything's technology. So my pet theory here is that when you look at the stock market, you have to think of every stock as a technology company. They're either making it or using it. If they're not using it, they're going to lose it.
Yeah, that's a great point.
How can this retail sales number our Jersey was suggesting, that's what the market's focusing on. Again, the Retail Sales Control Group came in it negative zero point three percent. Consensus was where positive zero point one percent last period was actually one percent, So.
A real fall off there. What's your view of the consumer ad and how do you think that the well looking at.
The conser I think it's important to remember when the these numbers come out that it's merchandise, it's goods. And what's been interesting is we had this buying binge coming out of the pandemic lockdowns and people couldn't buy services, so they bought a tremendous amount of goods. And then they they didn't stop buying goods, they just didn't increase their purchases. So purchases of goods is still at an all time record, I had just been kind of sluggish flat for the
past couple of years. Meanwhile, services is absolutely booming, as we all know if you go to the airport for example, or restaurants with you Amana.
Grey here in this room, folks ed Yard Denny with this here with futures up twenty seven off of sluggish retail report in Netflix right now, there's this spectacular black and white series called Ripley. I saw it, you thought yes, another one early in it is the communication that you and I knew years ago pre technology of the mom Blanc meister Struck one nine really nine hundred dollars. It's a big, ugly mud block that only the rich kids had.
That's when we were in school. Now we've got yesterday, Google coming out right with this incredible and gene Monster was plus plus on the new search to new AAI the technology in your controversial call of Roaring twenties? Is it about AI? Do you believe in AI moving the Dow above forty thousand.
I think so much money is being spent on AI that a good percentage of that is going to pay off. I think there is a certain amount of hype. I think open AI where it's open to the internet. I think that's going to turn out to be a very big disappointment. It was for me when I signed up for it and hoped that it could write my daily briefings, and I had to spend the whole day correcting its errors. But I think as long as companies put in just their company data, it's going to turn out to be
a supercharge. And nobody's even talking about supercomputers anymore because the GPUs, when you pile them all together, they seem to be fast do the job. They seem to be fast enough. So look, I think the stock market started to discount the roaring twenty twenty scenario on November thirtieth, twenty twenty two, when OpenAI introduced chat GPT and now all of a sudden, utilities our AI plays. Copper is an AI play.
So I look at eminem theory, you know, and I've never been a big fan of the certitude of it. I think it's really squishing. There's a lot of problems, but the bottom line is on use of capital. The new rage is again share buybacks. They're exploding. Ediard Denny on the support that share buybacks give to the bid is that constructive or is it ephemeral?
Well, it is what it is. I think it's real money, and the money is going to buy these stocks back. So I think it's certainly another factor behind the stock market doing quite well.
Edgar Denny with us with your Denny research. He just had a new hire. We'll talk about that later. Tom Keen and Paul swenia across this nation with features of twenty five. He's going to get us down forty thousand today.
I think probby he.
And Alex Steele will see that later on. Paul a ten year real yield down to two point zero seven percent.
Yep, we've had to pull back again at the ten year. Just trading here for spot three six on a ten year ed. So, are you surprised that this s and P. Five hundred that this stock market has done as well as it has this year up ten percent or so in an environment where the rate cut environment has really become barrassed.
She went from six cuts today, one or two today, whatever it is.
No, I'm very encouraged by that. It shows that the economy can live with these interest rates, the stock market could live with these interest rates. These are normal interest rates. The fed has really normalized. We're back to where we were before the insanity period, from the Great Financial Crisis to the Great virus crisis. So normal is good.
Normal is good. So it's been earnings, I mean earning.
Earnings are doing just fine.
Okay, Ed, you'r dourney with us, folks. We're going to continue daing to Telsea on deck here in about fifteen minutes. Generous of Ed. You're doney to be with us this morning. Our economic indicators and they move the market this morning. Thank you to Commonwealth for their commitment to Bloomberg surveillance. The indicators brought you by Commonwealth supporting more than two thousand independent financial advisors with the solutions they need to
grow thriving business. Commonwealth go where you grow. Visitcommonwealth dot com to learn more. For those of you not in the game, why are we with Ed Yardenny because he made an incredibly lonely fundamental economic call two octobers ago to say you should own equities in America. And he does this always with a more long term basis as well. I want you to speak to the trillions of money that's out there right now, and yet it's joined five percent and there's a taxes or whatever you know, have
to go into the net net. But the bottom line is they are they read ed Yardnny or listen to you intrepidation give them the confidence to make the first marginal investment.
Well, there's a tremendous amount of money and money market mutual funds, as you said, and people have been very comfortable earning four and a half five percent in these instruments. But that is kind of a it is a short term instrument. It's a short term place. It's not a long term bet on prosperity, which is what equities are, and even some corporate bonds certainly are a bet on
long term prosperity in the economy. So I think I've got nothing positive to say or negative to say about people who feel that they want to not take very much risk. I think, by the way, it's great that interest rates are back to levels or people who don't want to take risks don't want to be in the market Sweeny's.
Doing, Yeah, I mean up and coupons.
So I mean, what sectors in the equity market do well in an environment? Where are the ten years? I don't know, four and a half percent.
I think the answer is becoming all of them. Who would have thought that the utilities are our plays on artificial intelligence, and suddenly copper is is another way to play information technology. So I've been recommending information technology, financials industrials, but the market is clearly broadening at back to I think we're seeing some excitement in smid caps, even emerging markets.
I mean, we've got global stock markets at an all time record high excluding the US, and the US will be at a record high very shortly on Friday.
And folks like you know full disclosure. I mean, everybody that comes into us, we protect the copyright of all their work, as we do with that your den. But I really want to emphasize that your Denny Research has very accessible short notes. I mean it's a price of like two martinis. You know, it's like well, okay at the Carlisle. But you know your Denny's live in large with some great publications, and I urge you to look
at them if you design concision in your reading. The doom Clue publishes on Friday like clockwork to get through the entertainment of the weekend. They're humbled. What do you say to the doom What did the doom Crew get wrong to me on an isl on basis is they're completely focused on the parlor game of the FED, and they're not focused on the dynamics of the broader world, which is the real economy, which was gospel at Yale a few years ago.
Yeah, I mean, I had to unlearn a lot of things I learned at Yale. Quite honestly. It's very canesy and in its orientation. But I've become, like the FED, very data dependent, and I try to look at the big developments, and I think where a lot of economists missed is the demographics. We've got baby boomers that are retiring and they don't have a lot of them don't have a mortgage, they don't have college tuition payments anymore.
They just have lots of time on their hand, and they've accumulated enough money to go on cruises and go to restaurants and check into the hospitals every now and then just to make sure they can keep going.
Exactly looking at us, I don't know, you know, I don't know.
I got to do one more question here, and this is an audible folks, on my part, we had surveillance always look at the great journalists run even over the desk. Star Keepney has been on fire. I should say there was a guy at the Journal named Wallerstein who did some great, great work on macro. Right, he's died and gone to heaven and he gets to work for ed Yard Denny. How would God's name did you get Eric Wallerstein to lose the dark trade and come over and make it, you know, get a real job.
I offered him a job. He took it and it was a done deal, like an.
What's he going to do for you?
Well, he's going to do everything that I do. But his background is he worked on the fed's Open market desk, so he's a real whiz kid when it comes to the fixed income markets. So he'll certainly give us a lot more depth than that in that area. But other than that, you know, all hands on deck and he's another great hand on deck.
Let him go to the Lisa Matteo Media School and then we'd love to have him in Doctor Yard Denny, Thank you so much. And can I say this, I'm gonna put Ben Laydler in this group, Ralph and Kompora. There's a few others, but ed Yard Denny, like nobody has called this great bow market of October of I think it's two thousandial securities.
I mean the CJ.
Lawrence was green ink, right, it was like a green ink.
You'd sit there, got the same thing.
With a pencil in your hand, and Yard Denny's got the same c J. Lawrence and it was like, you know, Ed Hyman like sort of invented, and Yard Denny came along and gave it this whole twisted twist. It was better when it was printed. Am I right?
I don't know. We're high tech now, so I'm not going.
To agree with that. Okay, Edgiar Denny, thank you so much. I can you thank you for your support of what we do. We go to Dana Telsey of the Telsey Advisory Group. She's been waiting listening to Eddie R. Denny as well. Dana, a pretty moldy control group. Is that a trend? Is it? Is it a weaker retail sales trend that you and Joe Feldman have to work with?
Yes, it is. It is a weaker retail sales environment.
Do you have a consumer who's much more cautious and discerning than they've ever been in the past, you're seeing greater clarity to margins and profits than your are to sales, given that inventory levels or lean and the consumer in all income levels have moderated their spend of touch certainly what you and I talk about Tom with the uber high end like your mess of the world continue to spend, but beyond that we've seen will be definitely more cautious
in what they're spending. And retailers are aware of it, right, I mean.
I mean Red Lobster with some challenges to say the least, even though Mike McKee is you know, Mike mcke's are like three days a week having the lobster in stake special. Of course there some byproducts in the steak. But are we going to see a workout here in retail, in middle retail, the middle department stores in the lower ranges, Dana Telsea, are we going to see a rationalization of stores?
I think we've been seeing that. Look at Macy's announcements of their store closures that's out there. You haven't had many companies on the watch list, but you have had announcements of closures. Ninety nine cents only stores going away expressed closing a bunch of their stores, So it's getting more productive. But the interesting thing for all the closures, there is more demand for space than there is supply. I'm sure if you walk around Manhattan, we're seeing a
pickup in occupancy. We're seeing more news stores. Come. This weekend is the International Council of Shopping Centers Convention, where the retail real estate audience gets together, and I think we're going to continue to hear of more demand than supply because retailers are investing in those footprints, because consumers want that social entertainment of going to a store, and they could buy online and pick a store.
Also, I mean, Paul, the retails convention, that's like the plumber's convention. How about that square footage at the Short Hills mall?
Exactly?
All right, So Dana, what did you expect to hear? What are you going to be listening for from Walmart tomorrow? You know, is they report the results and you know, because we always feel like we can get a pretty good sense of how the consumer's doing out there.
That's what I want to listen for. I want to hear how the consumers do them. I want to hear how they're planning inventory. I want to hear about category performance, discretionary versus essentials. I want to hear about costs. How are they managing labor costs, remodels they're remodeling stores. What are they seeing on those remodels. I want to hear about e commerce, and I want to hear food and
gros rate versus the other categories. I think there's a lot to learn about the overall consumer environment from Walmart Trace tomorrow.
H Dana. One final question here, Thank you so much for being with us. What the market's moving? We got to migrate to market market chat Dana. Which part of retail is the greatest opportunity three years out? Is it luxury? Is it the beleaguered middle ground? What's the part where you say, thirty six months from now, this is going to provide total return.
I think luxury will provide total return. I think the Chinese will come back to spending. I also think the strength of off price and the continued share gains they have, I think it was a continued opportunity there, Dana, Tom's not the brand.
I got eight more questions about the time. We got to get you back here soon as well. Else see the Telsey Advisory Group. Maybe we'll touch on luxury with their next time around. We had to get our surveillance meme correspondent to bring him in. He's been such he's just so in demand by the media. It took us days to get it. You know, why did you bring in our victim?
Maybe he became a star along with his other meme stocks. Back in the day he study the kids.
They got their laptops up trying to make a trade after they talked.
To right the pride of Syracuse Belly Lipschultz, Market's reporter for Bloomberg newsh.
What's going on? Are we back?
I kind of understood the meme stock phenomenon of twenty twenty one. People locked down in basements stiinless money, trading stocks to have fun.
What's driving it today? Do you think?
Well, so today we're excluding today looking at the last three days. I wrote a story yesterday about how the fingerprints of momentum quants are kind of all over this And when I look at the retail flows on platforms like Fidelities and interactive brokers, more sell orders of game Stop than to buy. Like investors who bought the stock over the last three years and held onto the shares.
They's selling pressure there that didn't exist back in twenty twenty one, when short interest was one hundred and forty percent. Now it's close to twenty five percent. So the dynamics are very different now than they were back in twenty twenty one.
What did Hello Kitty do?
Raring Kitty?
Oh?
Sorry, right, come out at ten o'clock. They know what you're talking about. I have no clue. What did Hello Kitty do?
The Roaring Kitty ex account posted a meme on Sunday night, which, essentially reading between the lines and looking at what the meme stands for is essentially getting locked into a game. So the picture was a character or a drawing leaning back and.
Pushing forward, heating forward. That jump started, that sent the mark.
We tear apart short sellers out touting their shorts. They're Unamerican, they're illegal. Why is this any different going long than the short seller's getting beat up?
Not really.
I mean that's kind of the thing, Tom, when you look at the different arguments around different stocks. Everyone has their own case to be made. So the fact that a person on Twitter Free world only is posting memes NonStop and stitch together videos and the stock react.
To Neil Young's next song, meming in a Free World Billy.
So again, let's go back to who's buying this stuff? If it isn't you know the kid in his basement with his computer. Do we get a sense of who's buying? Because I saw some real volume trade over the past fday's tens of millions of shares.
Yeah.
When I talk to people who advise hedge funds, they say that the blueprint and kind of the playbook was laid out in twenty twenty one, that some of those momentum quants who trade strictly based on trading volumes and momentum are getting in and out of the stock. That's why you're seeing so much money being traded. Because again when I look at Fidelity data, for example, back in twenty twenty one, by orders, we're outstripping those of cell
like at a thirty to one clip. Wow, they're more cells than buys right now on So it's very different.
I got two questions. First, it's technical for those fancy heads from people, What is the setup that they're using to take fifty dollars a year? It doesn't matter the stock. Are they going long to fifty one. Are they looking for fifty two? Are they trading in pennies decimals?
I think everyone has their own different strategy, and so I think for the most part, the idea is it sounds super elementary buying, but gets buying. So you buy the stock and then see the next momentum fund buys the stock. So then you already have plugged into your algorithm. You buy it, for your example, at fifty and then you take in that profit at fifty two. But if you have your computers reading that the stock's going to keep going, then you wait for a cell signal then
to get out. So they're buying early and selling early.
Bill Gross, we published today that my good friend Bill Gross is out, and I'm gonna explain to slowly folks. He's doing options where he's writing them out, taking in a pre looking at the idiot volatility and hoping that the stock will go down. Did I do that? Okay?
That for the most part he's hoping that the stock trade's flat. Okay, So so for he's doing that for both GameStop and MC. He did it for Trump Media. It's really and when we were when I was talking to him through one of his pr people basically saying the expectation is that there's enough money that you can take both sides of the trade as long as it doesn't plunge or absolutely rip.
Again, he's just taking cash, just.
Taking in the premium while the children play.
Exactly, Okay, So let's all right, that's enough for the meme stocks. Your other meetings is IPOs. We heard from some CEOs this week from around the world speaking that they're pretty optimistic that the IPAL market this year is better and they expected to remain pretty solid.
Tell us about the IPAL market.
This year, what have we seen so far, how's the volume, how's business and then what's the outlook.
Everything has to be better that when you're coming off the worst year in more than twelve years. So we've seen volumes for the most part. Taking up the comps actually got a little bit more difficult because this time last year Janj's ken View carve out happened. That price a few billion dollars in paper, but we've seen three deals greater than a billion dollars. Viking Holdings luxury cruise line has done quite well, up seventeen percent from offer price.
Omor Sports, which was hotly debated up about sixteen percent from that price, and then Caspy, which is a Kazakhstan app A lot of debate around that. But we've seen Reddit and Rubric and ul Solutions, who makes the does safety testing, a number of kind of companies coming to market and for the most part.
Being well received.
And we've seen a number of companies considering whether they want to go now or wait until after?
Are we back to our profits or ibitar we're blind to that. They're just looking at gross gross growth.
Now so far removed from that.
And that's the big issue when you talked to venture capitalists is that they have a lot of companies that they need to get out of and start to take return money to their LPU, and the market's not ready for that.
Who decides the next meme stock? Who chooses? I mean I looked at like fifteen names and there really is there's no correlation, Paul that I can see why in there?
Well, that's and this is this is where the.
Existential debate of a memestock comes back.
Like AMC and GameStop, bed Bathroom Beyond back in the day, I think we're true memestocks. Heavily shorted companies that were rallying just because people posted actual memes on.
The internet bed bath and beyond robin Hood.
Some of those are heavily shorted names that are just getting your typical short squeeze and maybe a gamma squeeze if people are flipping out of the money call options. But it's not what I would classify as a company.
If I say gamma squeeze, they put me in the Survin Boxy Bailey Trots the King's English guy.
All right, So what's uh, what's next here on your beat? Because I'm thinking.
Spin offs, IPO, SPACs, I mean, what's the next big thing?
I think people more and more conversations are centering around spinouts and car outs. A number of public companies considering IPO in particular units. We saw and we have seen recently and continuing over the last few years, investors wanting skinnier companies and more focused stories.
So we saw that with J and J Kenview.
We saw that with a number of companies Kellogg creating Kelenova and.
W K Kellogg or yeah, w K kel Logg.
So breakups are back in vogue, and that's one of the things we've been watching.
When we talk to em bankers.
So then he's I get it. He's migrating from our meme reporter over to our matrimonial reporter.
That's right, you say, Rory, Yes, I know too bad.
Bailey Lipshalaltz have that for you, the breakups reporter for Bloomberg. I learned a lot. Seriously, it's great. I don't get it. I just totally don't get a Bailey thank you. In the King's English Year, your data. Look at the front pages brought you buy the Lisa Mateo Show, the Star the Lisa Mateo Show. With our newspaper study, what.
Do you got?
Well?
All right, this one stood out to me. It is from the Wall Street Journal cheating on workplace drug tests hitting the highest.
Rate in more than thirty years.
Okay, this was a study Quest Diagnostics. They took urine samples from twenty twenty three. About thirty one thousand drug screens out of five point five million shown signs of cheating. So the percentage of samples that came back positive about the same. But people are tampering with it. Mar you
know marijuana laws have changed things like that. How they're cheating, they're using someone else's urine, they're using animal synthetic urine that you can actually buy online, and they're using that so in valid tests up forty three compared to the yearboot.
You were that, so you can they don't test for weed anymore, right, because that's legalized.
Right.
It depends different states, that's what its so different.
States government rules. I see what's going on.
Yeah, so that's why there's these gray area now, so more people are cheating, cheating on the tests what they're finding. So I thought that was interesting because this shows the workplace is kind of changing too in that way.
Yep, absolutely, sorry, interesting stuff.
So you were talking about the entertainment, right, so I want to keep playing on this and streaming services, Tom, you're gonna like this. The latest Nielsen data shows YouTube giving streaming some competition for viewership. Okay, so it shows ten percent of the time Americans spent in front of TV screens last month was on its YouTube smart TV app. The top position went to Disney. Actually Disney plus Hulu, ESPN all the same. They took eleven point five percent.
So you had you had you know, YouTube at ten, you had Disney at eleven point five. I mean two You see the difference.
Yeah, I read it so carefully and it's really coming on and what's amazing, and we're living this every day folks out on YouTube subscribe to Bloomberg Podcast is the combination of YouTube It's where we are, folks, and YouTube TV, which is totally in Paul. That's sports like like they've got come on. They got the money to get that NBA dealer.
Partner and they have films, produce series, sports, live events.
Like what do you have.
What was most important to me on this story was that for the first time ever, Nielsen is tracking broadcast viewership, cable viewership and streaming viewership.
I took them fifteen.
Years and now we're there, and so now they can do it by the show. So what the streaming services are saying to the actors and the writers, I'm going to pay you based upon the viewership to your show because I can now measure and.
Just as you know, everybody knows this, but the search engine, the knowledge base of YouTube is scared. I was searching David Sandborn for our songs for the day and instantly I head up all this stuff that Google found of David Sandborn in the Great Sex. What do you got next?
So the streaming services are actually up in the end. They're trying to offer content from top celebrities, musicians, comedy. So Walt Disney came out and they said their streaming platforms added Bruce Bringsteen to list of artists that are producing shows. So his documentary is going to be out October. We're on Disney Plus and Hulu. But Disney's they've already had, you know, Taylor Swift, Beyonce, they've done Billy I yet Bungo, Yeah, not on but yep, yep, and then and it's not
just music music ardens. Comedians are big too, drawing in crowds. So Hulu has acquired the rights first santi comedian Jim Gaffigan, who's really popular and hilarious. But so his uh show The Skinny that's going to debut November twenty second. But it just shows how much there there's grambling to.
Like would I would argue it doesn't exist. It does not exist. Eric, we got to.
Get Maffa, We're gonna get Rich Greenfield on, we got to get some bran, We got to get some of these animals.
I still pay Cable.
I don't know why you got one.
Yeah, one more. Tom Brady's roast.
Do you remember that?
Right? It was on Netflix? Okay, I missed this.
Yeah, the most watched TV program on Netflix the last week was his roast. Now he's saying he kind of regrets it a little bit because of the way it impacted his kids. He was thinking about that, some of the jokes and some of the things like that. Nothing about his kids, but you know, they were poking fun you divorce and things like that.
So he was actually one.
Of the producers, the executive producer of it. So now we're kind of backtracking.
Question just how much was he paid for that? Yeah? Now I think people say fifty million dollars? Really, yeah, I have not five vote five. I don't know.
But what would make Tom Brady go through that, go through this? And I'm not even sure if Tom Brady fifty millions worth it? But I mean he did it the knucklehead, some dealer I remember.
I mean, you guys are too young to remember this, but I remember the rage of the Rose years ago, like Don Rickles and Dean Martin and I used to sit there and look at him and go, why are they doing this? I never got it. I'm sure we have people listening and watching who love these things? And I just Damien loved it.
Yeah, Damien was all over, But.
I just I never got him when I was a kid. And you know, like I can sympathize with mister Brady.
It's like whole bullying session.
You got one more or what I've done?
No, we are down for today.
Lisa Teo, thank you so much. On the newspapers there, don't forget folks a Lisa Matteo's show, the Upfront. Are they just they're on fire? Yeah, I mean Lisa Matteo Upfront are Oh yeah.
My family always says we should be a.
The merch bag. Yeah, the swag bag for the Lisa Matteo Show.
Yep.
But Kenny yogurt you know, that's what you get, yogurt and spoon. Thank you, Lisa Matteo, thank you so much. The newspapers today. Reddy Green on the screen, Paul, this is exciting thirty five minutes. It's like a job for report.
This is important.
I mean, I think you know if you're the Fed watcher, it's it's where it is. Inflation January February March a little bit hotter than expected, and what are we going to see in April here because a lot of folks would like to see a little bit of a cooling in that inflation print. Maybe give the Fed a little bit more leeway to cut rates.
Do you know that our newspaper report is so popular they're making a podcast out of.
The least Wow.
That you should see it, folks. I mean, seriously, how she puts this together. She's got like twenty newspapers, she puts it together. This is the Bloomberg Surveillance Podcast, bringing you the best in economics, finance, investment, and international relations. You can also watch the show live on YouTube. Visit the Bloomberg Podcast channel on YouTube to see the show weekday mornings from seven to ten am Eastern from our
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