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Bloomberg Surveillance TV: May 30, 2024

May 30, 202434 min
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Episode description

-Robert Sockin, Citi Research Senior Global Economist
-Michael Cloherty, UBS Head of US Rates Strategy-Wamsi Mohan, BofA Securities Senior IT Hardware Analyst
-Lorenzo Simonelli, Baker Hughes CEO

Robert Sockin of Citi and Michael Cloherty of UBS react to US weekly jobless claims that exceeded estimates and discuss whether the Fed should reconsider its short-term interest rate target. Wamsi Mohan of BofA Securities explains why he raised his price target for Dell and how tech hardware companies are poised for success in the age of AI. Baker Hughes CEO Lorenzo Simonelli discusses what's next for the energy sector as new data from the EIA shows the US leading global oil production for the sixth straight year. 

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Transcript

Speaker 1

Bloomberg Audio Studios, Podcasts, radio News.

Speaker 2

This is the Bloomberg Surveillance Podcast. I'm Jonathan Ferrow, along with Lisa Bromwitz and am Marie Hordern. Join us each day for insight from the best in markets, economics, and geopolitics from our global headquarters in New York City. We are live on Bloomberg Television weekday mornings from six to nine am Eastern. Subscribe to the podcast on Apple, Spotify or anywhere else you listen, and as always on the Bloomberg Terminal and the Bloomberg Business App. With us around

the Table, City's Rob Sokin Michael Clart of f UBS. Michael, to you first, your reaction to these numbers this morning.

Speaker 3

Yeah, not much of a signifiant change, So you know, there has been a little bit of slow down and growth from the really hot numbers last year. Still solid composition, still pretty good right now, but do think that we're going to continue to get some slowing as we go forward. I think one of the issues for the raids for out there is everyone's been mesmerized by this rise in the equity market, thinking that strong equities mean strong economy,

therefore high rates. The problem with that is, you know, earnings were solid, but an awful lot of this rally has been AI and other non economic, noncyclical factors.

Speaker 4

So I think that, you know, as we go.

Speaker 3

Forward a little bit, we will see some slowing. We've taken out most of the downside risk in rates after a long time, we're respecting lots of easing, you know, decent recession probability. We priced most of that out, and so I think the market's cheap right here.

Speaker 2

Rub you're looking for some slowing, some big time slum because you've got a right cut call for July. I'm trying to work out what the data needs to look like from here come against July for that to take place. And let's start with payrolls next Friday. How bad does that Friday number need to be to keep your right cut col im plight.

Speaker 5

Yeah, absolutely, And to really get there, as you said, you need some type of nonlinear slowing in the labor market. And right now, these jobles figures, which are some of the best indicators of the labor market, are not really pointing to that. They're still quite quite low, quite stable,

point to a fairly robust labor market right now. Our US team is looking for just a shade below one pin fifty on payrolls, you probably have to see an larger slowing in other labor market indicators and in the labor market more broadly after that to really get that July cut on the table. So I think if their call is right on payrolls, you're still not quite in that danger zone yet where the FED would really be worried about that nonlinear slowing, but it would be a

pretty notable slow down from where we've been. That said, there's a lot of uncertainty around the report. For example, bad weather in April likely depressed April payrolls. It's possible you get some payback in May, so there is some upside risk to that figure.

Speaker 6

It doesn't sound like Robert, you have as much conviction about the July rate cut as maybe a month ago.

Speaker 4

Is that true?

Speaker 6

I mean, are you basically thinking how far before or we have to backpedal on this one.

Speaker 5

It's a tough call, as you said, and you're seeing that obviously reflected in markets. I think to get to that July cut you would need probably some combination of soft enough labor market data and enough decline in the run rate for inflation, that the Fed is seeing progress on the inflation side of its mandate and gets worried about activity. So the bar for that to happen both

of those things is pretty is pretty high. We're still holding on to as I said, we see a lot of softness in a lot of more minor labor market indicators like surveys of small businesses hiring within the PMI reports, But even still, as you said, the bar is pretty high to get there, and I think over the last month it's become a bit more challenged, Michael, from.

Speaker 6

That standpoint, this is something people have been grappling with, and suddenly Bill Dudley is talking about the fact that maybe if you hold rates higher for longer, it isn't going to be restrictive in any way, shape or form, And then in fact we should be talking about holding

rates here indefinitely. In Robert's view of things, and I believe you're sympathetic with this, it's actually not the case, and that if the Fed doesn't lower rates soon, it could actually tip the economy over into a hard landing. How much more are you thinking about that type of scenario at a time where the data isn't cooperating with the FED cuts as quickly, right.

Speaker 3

I think that's more an issue for later in the year, but it is. It does seem to be restrictive right now. We're certainly seeing it in housing numbers starting to soften a little more right there. So some of these most you know, interest rates sensitive sex to the economy.

Speaker 4

You are seeing a bite so you know, does have some effects.

Speaker 3

It's been a little bit offset by the fact that credit spreads are extraordinarily tight and you're getting these other loosening and financial conditions offsetting it. But you know, generally, I think you know it is biting. If you stay here, eventually you'll you'll feel a squeeze.

Speaker 2

My McKay, we wanted to come back to you for a final word on this role looking ahead to John Williams of the Neo F a little bit later on this afternoon. This pace that Lacy just mentioned from built out lay getting everyone's attention the FED things is finding inflation. Think again, even a more than five point five percent the Central Bank's short term interest rates target might not

be high enough to call the economy. Mike, first of all, what's your reaction to that, and what would you look for from mister Arstar himself a little bit like to this afternoon.

Speaker 7

Well, it's something that a number of FED officials have been talking about, including John Williams, who spoke to me about a month ago here on Bloomberg Television and said that he was beginning to think that our star the neutral rate is higher than the FED basic consensus is about six tens of eight percent. And if that's the case, it would have implications for how much the FED funds rate is holding back the economy, and it raises that question that you've heard a number of people talk about

of whether they might have to raise rates. The other option is that we still see lags at work, and we're going to be seeing them hit the economy and bring growth down and bring inflation down at the same time. So the interesting thing I think from Williams would be if he speaks about that, because we sort of know what he thinks, it's going to be like everyone else, that it will take higher for longer to get inflation down,

and we're committed to that. But what does he say beyond that that might make news that could be it.

Speaker 6

Well, Robert and I know that neither of the people who are around the table, Michael Robert, both of you are not sympathetic with that view.

Speaker 4

You believe that there is a.

Speaker 6

Restrictiveness and that we are seeing that come through.

Speaker 8

Rob What would you have to see to.

Speaker 6

Actually go around to the Bill Dudley school of thought?

Speaker 5

Well, you know, as you know, we are seeing interest rates by different parts of the economy at varying speeds. We're seeing ongoing tightening credit conditions, weakening credit demand stresses, and lower income consumers.

Speaker 4

But that being.

Speaker 5

Said, if you look at the data, growth continue overall to hold up quite well, even at rates at a fairly high level, or rate that I would think is

fairly is fairly restrictive. So I would say, if we're going into the second half of this year, and it was mentioned earlier the Atlanta Fed NowCast is running a pretty strong growth or second quarter, if we keep running at numbers that look like that, it would lead me to believe that either rates would have to stay at these levels for a much stronger, longer period because maybe short term our star has risen more significantly than expected,

or maybe even rates could have to go higher from here. So I basically would have to look at the data. If we don't get that type of moderation or cooling in activity. I think I would move more into that camp.

Speaker 9

If you move into that camp, what does that do to your July call? Is that just totally the back end of the year you push it to twenty twenty five.

Speaker 5

I think, depending on how well the economy continues to hold up, we would have to probably push out that call even further.

Speaker 8

That may raise the risk of.

Speaker 5

Some type of harder landing ahead if the economy has to face elevated rates for an extended period. Normally we don't have to face rates at these levels for such an extended period. So basically I would think it would get pushed out towards later this year, and depending on the resilience, you could get pushed out even further.

Speaker 4

Michael, do you agree with that?

Speaker 6

That is just a matter of just if you do see this kind of ongoing strength in the economy, you might have to reset and kind of come around to this idea that maybe rates are not that restrictive at all.

Speaker 3

So even if our star is fifty basis points higher, we're still much tighter than that currently, so you know you're still tight. Anyway, you come up with that In addition for some of this, you know, high FED funds rates forever. I think one of the challenges to that is our star is really just shorthand for broad financial conditions. It says, you know, at a different funds rate over time, everything will average out a certain way if the consensus is right, and we're going to see steepening in the

yield curve due to all this supply. You know, if you have a two and a half funds rate with no term premium, that's very different financial conditions than you know two and a half funds rate one hundred basis point term premium.

Speaker 4

In that case, the.

Speaker 3

Fed needs to have funds rate lower rather than higher to offset that higher rates out the curve. So I think, you know, the hurdle to get right. Heikes from here very very high. Does feel like inflation is going to slow too?

Speaker 2

You and the team SAMD buy bones. Is that the cool hit?

Speaker 4

Yeah?

Speaker 3

I think I think at this level, at the curve, so I think we're more sort of out in the tenure sector. I think that you know, at these levels you've got real yields, you know, at two and a quarter to value there well, just to sort.

Speaker 6

Of building this In other words, you believe that one way or another, inflation is going to come down, the Fed's going to cut rates. What about the other component, the idea of what we've been talking about, the term premium and all of these questions around just the fiscal profile of the country.

Speaker 3

Yeah, over long term supply has a has a huge effect. You know, every time my teenage daughters give me a hard time, I just roll with it because they should be angry.

Speaker 4

You know, all this debt, they're going to herod from us. So you're a better human than I. Carry on.

Speaker 3

But you know the problem is in the short term, the swings in demand, they're so much larger than the swings in supply. If you look back, the biggest supply shock in history was US ran a budget surplus from.

Speaker 4

Ninety eight to one.

Speaker 3

For the first two and a half years of that, the term premium went the wrong way, you know.

Speaker 4

So it's really the demand shifts overwhelmed the supply shifts.

Speaker 3

So if you do these supply trades, they'll probably work eventually, but it's going to be awfully mumpy ride on the way. Very few people will be able to hold that trade to the maturity.

Speaker 9

UBS has pulled Donovan overnight after the auctions said trusting up treasuries. Obviously immediately thought of Lisa, are you saying this is basically something that it's not immediate in the back burner. This is a problem that the market should care about it.

Speaker 3

It's the issue is we just don't know where the breaking point is. And the trouble is it feels like Congress because they haven't you know, they've been hearing about this tree branch breaking for a long time, and so they're sprinting as fast as they can out the tree branch right now. So you know, it's it's we don't know. We're in new territory here. But I think it's really one of those things where the supply you don't trade based off of that, you size your trades based off of that.

Speaker 4

So if the.

Speaker 3

Supply works for your idea, you upsize your risk a little bit. If it works against your trade, you downsize a little bit.

Speaker 4

So it's really more of a tail risk.

Speaker 2

Tends the volume up and down just a little bit. It's an interesting way of thinking about it. When I hear about doom, read about Doom, I think of Bramo too. First thing just Lisa Liz trus Bramo the first Place Psycho, First Place Psycho. We're all thinking about the supposed inflation re outcomes of November, whether it's going to be tariffs, what it might mean, additional supply, fiscal easing coming from

whichever administration we might get. Is it's still too early to think about those things from your perspective, because we're getting guests coming on already at the end of May. Thinking about them.

Speaker 3

No, I think those are real, and I think they're you know, whichever party wins, you're going to see tightening on that side. It's a scale difference, but same direction on those things.

Speaker 4

That said, the reason we're kind.

Speaker 3

Of optimistic about inflation in the near term is if you look at, you know, all of these rental surveys, those peaked and rolled over a while ago, and so we all thought that that meant that OERE, the biggest piece of inflation, was going to roll over to the problem is that those surveys had run well ahead of OER for a long time, and it turned out OER had.

Speaker 4

To fill the gap between those.

Speaker 3

At this stage, it's filled a gap for all the surveys except one, So it does feel like we're finally going to start to see you know, some of this oer start to slow. You know, we can't be one hundred percenture because there's still is one survey that there's some gap to fill, but the preponderance of data says it'll slow.

Speaker 9

Rob to John's point, how are you thinking about twenty twenty five.

Speaker 5

Well, I think for the election and looking at the domestic implications. I know there's a lot of debate about this, but we still think deficits are going to stay pretty large no matter who comes to power. You know, the CBOs projecting five and a half percent or something around those levels for deficits per year as a percent GDP over next decade. I would probably look at that as sort of a floor estimate of whe where things could go.

I think it's interesting when Trump and the Republicans were in power, they cut taxes and boosted deficits, and when Democrats and Biden were in power, they boosted spending and boosted deficits. So I think until the market really tells them this is a huge problem, and it would have to be a lot of market pressure, I think we're going to get large deficits for the foreseeable future, and

then thinking about some of these international components. As you mentioned, I think both parties are going to be very tough on China. I think we saw that recently with the Biden administration's new tariffs on China, and in terms of tariff policy, Trump is probably going to be even more aggressive than Biden. I don't think you would go as far as sixty percent tariff, but I think is ten percent across the board is something we have to take seriously.

But the buy administration is not going to shy away from using them. And then a minimum keeping what's what's there now in place.

Speaker 4

So I think.

Speaker 5

Tariff policy is going to be used or in place pretty extensively. And I think deficit spending is here to stay until markets tell them otherwise.

Speaker 2

Hi, Rob, it's going to say thank you, sir. Roughstock in there city a loveside Michael Clotti of ubs. You know in some of the games of stocks we've seen this year, this one right here, I don't think it's been talked about nearly enough a year today, move of one hundred and thirty four percent. Announcing a partnership with

Nvidia won't hurt to expand this AI services. Let's have this conversation with Bank of America's Wamzi Mohn lifting his price target on down to one eighty and writing this, we expect strong momentum into twenty five given upside from AI service, high end storage, and PC refresh with optionality from AI. Wemnesday, Good morning's here Morne John. What is behind that months to move in Dell? And have you ever been busier?

Speaker 4

It's incredible.

Speaker 1

I I would kind of pose this as almost a hardware renaissance, right, Like, we've not been in a period where these hardware value stocks typically have performed as growth stocks, and it's been a real change in perception in rerating of valuations. And this is happening all because AI at its core is really going to be driven ultimately on physical servers, and physical servers, as we all know from Nvidia's perspective, are in big demand. And who are the suppliers?

Who are the arms dealers for that? Right? So you look at the hyperscaler market, you got the Taiwani sodms. But as you think about AI adoption more broadly at tier two cloud service providers or in the enterprise, that is where Dell really shines, and so Dell's really being able to come up with a great story putting this technology together. And if you remember at GtC, he was the one exact Michael Dell was one of the executives

who was called out multiple times by Jensen. I think that added a lot of street cred sort of to Dell's AI initiatives and the capability of those servers.

Speaker 2

You've listed a bunch of reasons to be constructive AI servers, high end storage, PC refresh. Where does PC refresh rank for you? I'm trying to work out we're about to see this big upgrade cycle. Everyone just saying the desktop's interesting again, let's upgrade the PC.

Speaker 1

Yeah, John, Look, I think PCs are probably just in the order that you described, right, the third order of sort of like the key drivers, because servers as a magnitude of the opportunity is just much larger dollar wise. When you think about storage, they are tied to the high end storage and ibms coming up with a mainframe refresh next year, and Dell is very well positioned.

Speaker 8

And these are the.

Speaker 1

High margins sixty percent plus gross margin opportunity that Dell has.

Speaker 8

When you think about PCs.

Speaker 1

So refreshes, not so much about AIPCS per se. In our opinion, I think that'll take a little bit longer. But we do see the echo of the boom of the demand that came up during COVID. So you had about one hundred and fifty million extra PCs sold in the COVID couple of years, and off that we'd say a third of dot Chromebooks and maybe about forty percent of the remainder were commercial pieces. Those commercial pieces are coming up for a refresh.

Speaker 8

And that's material.

Speaker 1

So when you think about that, coupled with the commercial refresh that's going to be driven by Windows ten end of life, those are two big catalysts that can drive PC units much higher than sort of the flatish that we've seen year today.

Speaker 6

I wish I could go back a couple of years and all the people who are saying the personal computer is dead and really sort of highlights some of these earnings.

Speaker 4

It's not just Dell.

Speaker 6

HP came out yesterday after the bell also beating expectations, is said about ten percent of shipments in the second half of this year are going to be AI equipped. How do you understand who the winners are going to be in thissance of the PC and who the losers are. I'm thinking maybe Apple who haven't maybe adapted as quickly.

Speaker 1

Yeah. I would say that our view on AI at the edge, more broadly speakingly says that when you think about the devices that hold most of the content and the information that consumers want to use and on a daily basis, it's really going to be the smartphone, and we're talking about the smartphone actually becoming dumb more like a feature phone, and the next wave of phones that are coming, which we're calling the intellphones, are really where

the intelligence is embedded. You've got AI agents at the back that are pushing information back to your apps or forward facing phone users.

Speaker 8

And so we think that that adoption cycle.

Speaker 1

Is going to overtake the AI adoption at PCs on.

Speaker 8

The winners and losers on the PC side.

Speaker 1

Right, PC markets consolidated around the large OEMs of Dell, HP, Lenoo and so on. I think that remains it's pretty much status quo. On the Apple front, we think that you know, AI is going to be all across all devices, right, so this is something that Apple is going to do from the back end. They will do partnerships as opposed to just kind of driving more capability at the edge,

and these partnerships are going to be server based. So this is part of the reason why we think that the AIPC story itself is marginal in the near term, because there are not a lot of apps that require that heavy compute power right.

Speaker 8

On the device. And Apple's got you know, it's M four chip.

Speaker 1

And when you think about the way that most people are classifying this AI capability at about forty tops performance, Apple's right there.

Speaker 8

They can handle it.

Speaker 1

But I think that the consumers are going to use much more so on the smartphone side.

Speaker 6

It strikes me that the quicker adopters and the winners in the short term have been the hardware side, whether it's the chips, whether it's the PCs. They can just use what's out there to quickly bring in the capabilities. How long do you think it's going to take before becomes a software story. We sell salesforce fall out of bed after not being able to monetize AI. We've seen that consistently. When does this shift to benefit some of the other players.

Speaker 8

Yeah, it's a great question.

Speaker 1

Look, I think the wave of AI really has started sort of first, I.

Speaker 8

Think in the chip centric.

Speaker 1

World moved on to sort of physical devices servers PCs. I think the next leg is really services because there are I mean, we've spoke about machine learning five years ago and what happened to it. No one talks about machine learning, it's all Jenny I today and no one really adopted machine learning per se in a big way, and there was a lot of help that enterprises needed to even get there.

Speaker 8

It's the same story. Enterprises are going to need a ton of.

Speaker 1

Help to say, you go and procure a black Will server for three million dollars, what are you going to do with it?

Speaker 4

Right?

Speaker 1

As an enterprise, you have to have a strategy, a plan. What is the data that's going to run on it, is the data clean, is the data good?

Speaker 8

What is the training software?

Speaker 1

And what sort of architecture you're going to use. So there are a lot of open questions for which I think the services companies will step in and really help map out that strategy as SI partners or or working with working with the various players in the industry.

Speaker 8

Beyond that, we think the next leg would.

Speaker 1

Be really software and software I think is kind of like you know, plus and minus. I think when you've got very points solutions of software that are you know, deeply seated in with one vertical I think a lot of that expertise is where AI puts that at risk, right, And when you think about that, even in terms of in consulting, even that's been.

Speaker 8

Proved to be true. So the more vertical, like smaller sleeves of.

Speaker 1

Productivity improvements that can come from small places of let's say, like technology knowledge, those are the ones where you can see real disruption, whereas adopting AI within software is a long term story where.

Speaker 8

Companies that are successfully.

Speaker 1

Able to blend that and be much more platform based are going to be the winners.

Speaker 2

There is the word in telephone catching on.

Speaker 8

We certainly hope it will look.

Speaker 1

We've thought about this and coined that it was kind of a fun, fun play on words. But the way we thought about really the concept, right, and it's appropriate to say this here on Bloomberg is context is everything, right and AI phones.

Speaker 8

That is the difference. It is about the context.

Speaker 1

You can go back and have a conversation with an AI agent because it already knows the context of your last conversation. Right, So if you're doing replacing a travel agent with your AI agent. You need the context. You want to come back with more information. It's not usually just hey, book me this and it's done. Give me options, let me look at that, let me come back and give you some more information. Right back and forth of a conversational agent. We think will be handled by the intelephone.

Speaker 2

You're welcome back anytime. Thank you, sir. Moha Banks of America appreciate it. Thank you. The US is leading global oil production for the sixth straight year, according to data from the EIA. Record cash piles by energy giants also fueling consolidation in the space Exceon, Chefron, Coloco, Phillips all announcing new deals this year and pleased to say that with this around the table, it's Lorenzo. Similarly, the CEO of Baker Hughes, Lorenzo, good morning to you, sir.

Speaker 10

Great to be with you.

Speaker 2

Massive consolidation, Chefron, Exon, all the big players in a mix. What does it mean for your world? For services? How are thing it's going to change?

Speaker 10

You know, we've seen these times before as consolidations taken place. What it means for us is, obviously we work with our customers. We get stronger with them as well. And as we see the bigger players get together, we see our opportunities to partner with them on the technology forefront.

They're looking for efficiency, productivity, they're looking for ways in which they can also reduce emissions, and as consolidation happens, we actually see it as an opportunity to really grow larger with them from a shared perspective and introduce new technologies.

Speaker 2

You've talked about this new spending cycle. When you think about new technologies, you're thinking about how to develop existing fields even more or discover new ones.

Speaker 10

It's definitely about existing fields. And as you look at mature assets, solutions, chemicals, ESPs, electrical submissible pumps, doing more with what we have. We know that today seventy five percent of the production is from mature assets, and we've got to do more with those mature assets. Green fields costs a lot of money, and so how do you drive efficiencies productivity with the reservoirs we have today.

Speaker 6

There's been a lot of question around Okay, thirteen million barrels a day in the United States being produced, is that the cap? How much higher could it potentially go? And how quickly could it go? Higher in response to some sort of geopolitical pressure. Given the technology that you're talking about, how quickly could you ramp that up well beyond thirteen million barrels a day?

Speaker 10

You know, I think we've always been surprised. We've been surprised by the shell revolution. We've always seen technology come in, and I think it's hard to predict how much high you could go. We've obviously got to recover depletion rates. Technology is going to be the advantage for the producers. How much more that's a question mark. I think Right now, our focus is on driving efficiencies and also making sure that we're meeting the demand, and the demand is there.

We know that demand is growing globally.

Speaker 6

Has there been more of an emphasis in developing some of the mature acids in the fossil fuel industry and maybe less so on some of the new energies that aren't being rewarded as much by shareholders.

Speaker 10

We're seeing both, and you know, there's definitely a focus across the globe on being able to meet the energy demand, both from a standpoint of of the aspect of providing the energy but also lowering emissions. And so we're seeing both sides grow at the same time. In fact, last year, if we look at our new energy within Baker Hughes, we achieved over seven hundred and fifty million dollars new orders.

This year, we've got a guidance for eight hundred to a billion dollars of new energy orders and we're set for twenty thirty to have six to seven billion dollars. So we're seeing the growth there as well as continuing to see an increase in the aspect of energy demand from the fossil fuels, which requires also lower emissions.

Speaker 6

You said the demand is there. A lot of people talking about artificial intelligence, is some of the chip centers and the kind of energy that that's going to require. I am curious as you talk about new technologies to produce more energy how much of this is going to be through acquisitions versus just sort of organic growth.

Speaker 10

Going to be a combination. There's a lot that's being done with regards to incubator technologies, around direct air capture, around CCUS, also around the micro turbines and net power. When you're looking at clean integrated power solutions. We have a partnership with netpower, which again is the oxycombustion process which allows us to provide three hundred megawatts of clean integrated power, which is a great solution. So I think it's going to be a combination of both. I know

one thing is for sure. We're going to need a lot of technology, a lot of investment, and it's going to be both inorganic as well as organic development.

Speaker 9

There's a lot of consolidation in the industry, but when Baker Hughes comes up, people talk about potentially speculation that you would actually split into two. Is that something you think about as you reorganize the business?

Speaker 10

Now, we've often looked at it, and we actually have a clear strategy with regards to sustainable energy development and helping our customers. And as we look across our two segments or field services and equipment and industrial energy technology, they really go hand in hand with enabling our customers to being able to improve their efficiency, drive incremental production and lower emissions.

Speaker 4

And as we look.

Speaker 10

At increasing energy demand, you need both sides of the house. And I look at a kingdom such as Saudi Arabia and being in the Middle East last week, they're growing

their gas infrastructure. So we're there with regards to our old field services being able to help them with the gas reservoirs, but we're there also with the industrial energy technology, with the master gas system, being able to help them with the development of that pipeline network, being able to help them with the power generation, and so hand in hand. Baker Hughes provides a portfolio that actually provides the full suite.

Speaker 4

So better together for now.

Speaker 9

Yes, I know you have a lot to say as well on LERG and the boom we've seen from LERG. What do you make of this administry putting a pause on permits given the fact that it basically had a promise to Europe that it would be a supplier.

Speaker 10

You know, we're disappointed. We're disappointed with the decision. Obviously, the administration has to make its decisions as it does, and we think that global demand for LNG is still strong and robust. We think that by twenty thirty there needs to be an installed capacity of eight hundred million tons per annum, and we believe that's going to be coming and it's either going to be international projects or it's going to be US projects that take place. We're

still seeing a lot of activity. You've seen the announcements being made in Gitar, You've seen announcements being made by add notquid investments they're making also in Mozambique. So projects are moving forward and we hope the administration releases the pause and moves forward. There's a lot of natural gas within the United States. There's a lot of good projects, and we think it's an opportunity to be able to again provide energy security to the world.

Speaker 2

Do you think some of the aspirations to move away from fossil fuels are realistic? What do you say back to some government officials.

Speaker 10

I think you need to be pragmatic and again, you need a sustainable energy development. There is no doubt that you need to move towards energy abundance as well as lower emissions, and you need to do it in a way that is affordable, secure, and sustainable. And so you need to marry a roadmap that introduces an aspect of let's stop talking about the fuel types. Let's focus on emissions, abating,

reducing emissions. And I think that's the discussions that we're having, and that's why we're focused on the solutions around CCUS, carbon capture, utilization, storage, direct air capture, geofermal hydrogen. That's why we're looking at natural gas as being not just a transition but a destination fuel LNG because it's available today. So let's have a pragmatic sustainable energy development discussion and let's go towards lower emissions.

Speaker 2

At least we're alluded to this. She talked about AI. We talk about in video every single day that stock has had a phenomenal run. The energy demands of some of this are going to be absolutely massive. If you and the team put some numbers on it, what are the additional energy demands over the next few years is going to be from some of these major tech firms.

Speaker 10

Oh, they are staggering. I won't give any specific numbers because they can be so vast, but you look at some of the numbers that you get out there, for example, cryptocurrencies today, you know, cryptocurrencies use as much energy as the country of Poland. As you look at the AI and Generative AI, they're saying twenty percent increase in US

demands for energy just from new data centers. It's going to require a lot of installations of distributed power generation, it's going to require incremental natural gas, it's going to require clean energy. So it's an all of the above strategy. And it's also the use of AI to drive efficiencies as well. So there's the aspect of also us benefiting from the inclusion of AI into the way in which we operate for efficiencies.

Speaker 6

How long do you think it's going to take to build out the infrastructure to support the outgrowth of energy demand by AI that so many people are talking about.

Speaker 10

You're looking at a number of years. And also it's going to require the right policies and the right permitting to be in place, and in particularly in the United States, that's one of the aspects that needs to be resolved is from a permitting perspective, how do you get that resolved and how do you move forward? Also internationally, as you look at Europe, how do you make sure that the regulations are in place. So that's something that they're working for and they're working through Lorenzo.

Speaker 2

You're in an exciting space and it's going to catch up with you. Thank you, sir, Thank you very much. Thank you, Lorenzo. Similarly, there of Baker Hughes. This is the Bloomberg Surveillance podcast, bringing you the best in markets, economics, angiot politics. You can watch the show live on Bloomberg TV weekday mornings from six am to nine am Eastern. Subscribe to the podcast on Apple, Spotify, or anywhere else you listen, and, as always, on the Bloomberg Terminal and the Bloomberg Business out

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