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Terminal and the Bloomberg Business app Begin this hour. We're still struggling to build on yesterday's gains as growth worries Linker on Wall Street John Stolfus of Oppenheimer, staining Bullet's writing, we remain positive on equities. The broad rotation, which began in the rally from the S and P five hundred low on October twenty seven, twenty twenty three, has repeatedly deflected volatility. John joins us now for more. John and Mornick,
good morning, Good to see. You've said, is the policy changes? Do the policy changes? Does the policy and sentency change your view?
It so? No, it doesn't.
In fact, we would say, if anything, the policy uncertainty takes us to say, well, this is just about what you would expect. This is something you know, it's it's Monty Python used to say. And now for something completely different. If you consider the difference between the prior administration and this administration, we can't help but think, you know, it's very natural tariff The prospect of tariff wars that could last is very concerning. Okay, to business, to the consumer,
and to governments alike on all borders. But we can't help but think that this is a process. This is the first president. And by the way, I'm not an apologist for the for the Trump administration, nor was I for the Biden administration. This is politically agnostic. It's a business person talking when we look at it. There, for eighty years now, the US has in effact had a very lacks policy towards dealing with tariffs against our products
for decades. We have now exported our production and the result of that is the rest of the world are the producers and we're the consumers. And without us, those other countries would suffer significantly.
They have over capacity.
In Asia, in Europe, they have over capacity in Latin America. This is for years we have been building up the world has been building up capacity to export to the US.
We can pounk the politics. I think you just have to focus on the policy and the objectives. And the objective is pretty click even everything you've said, rebalance the US economy, rebalance the global economy for that matter, and accept in their own words, some disruption a detox. What does that mean for markets?
Well, I think what it means is we have right now we're going to be affected very much by an increase in volatility.
That's quite natural.
We think the way that work to weather it is with prudent diversification that meets the needs objectives and the tolerance to volatility for an investor or an institututions mandate.
But it's it's not something that is indigestible. If anything, it's something that has to be digested at this point because we it's the first time we've ever seen an administration not kick the can down the road in terms of the cost of government versus services, actually rendered the tariff regimes in the in the around the world and could actually once people can meet at the table and
cooler heads prevail. I think work out pretty well. The initial part, there's a lot of political jostling and everybody is working to get their constituency to say stand up for us and whichever side it is. But once you get over that that that human uh uh a lack of ability to get to the down to brass tacks quickly. Once you get to it, I think we get to a much better situation and a reglobalization which would should be good for both developed and emerging markets.
To be clear, I think a lot of people would agree with you, and a lot of people in the business community would agree with you as well, particularly in the United States, who have alluded to exactly what you're talking about. The issue is the near term volatility of headlines and the path to get there some of the negotiation tactics that are making people concerned about how long it might take to actually get to that place. You say that you need to write size expectations for how
certain assets will respond to volatility. Does that basically mean that you think that they should lower their expectations for a whole host of different assets.
We would say it being realistic, it's like near term lower expectations and understand, for example, the sell off that we'd seen in the financial stocks for example, let alone what we saw in technology, Well, they had a phenomenal run last year. So a good place for a haircut or a trim, or even a correction would be amongst those two sectors and others. So just live with it rather than dump and run, you stay with it.
You're diversified. You know what you own, know why you own.
It, and have right sized expectations, and like us, you might be pleasantly surprised over the course of a forty year career.
Well, when you.
Talk about diversification, it's taken on a different meaning over time. There was a question around bonds diversified. There was a question around whether gold was the ultimate diversifier. There was a question with geographies versus sectors. How is your understanding of what it means to be diversified changed in an era where there are some pretty seismic changes going on.
From the policy perspective.
I would say diversification today the approach should be very much like one that is parallel to the one in fixed income, which is considered duration. Here it would be the duration of the need. In other words, are you longed, are your objectives long?
Term for retirement.
Are you a retiree who is a relatively young.
Retiree, how long.
Are you going to need to be exposed to equities to have, based on history, have a greater ability to keep your standard of living. And so we are really at a point now where you know, the old days when the private investor would would appear, they were usually the retail investor. It was cocktail party stocks that they would talk. Now Diday people invest for need because they recognize the fact that things like Social Security will likely not be anywhere near the benefit percentage wise.
What it once was for their parents or their grandparents. When we have this.
Policy uncertainty though, when we see that bleed into the markets, we see pullbacks. Are you advocating people buy more?
Yeah, we actually are advocating dollar cost averaging. We don't say buy the dips, but we say buy the babies that get tossed out with the bathwater. The type of volatility that we are seeing now, we have seen parallels to it in the Great Financial Crisis in COVID. Remember when COVID struck. I'll never forget an April of what was it, April of twenty twenty, wasn't it. April twenty twenty, you had some of the smartest people in the world on shows saying it could be decades before they find
a cure for this deadly virus. To me, you know, and that we had At that time, Trump was in the White House and he said something to the effect of, well, we could have you know, in.
His own inlimit all voice. I'm not going to get.
To him a date the present, but he said we could get it. We could get drugs in a warp tie in warp speed, and we did a short period, relatively speaking, we had it.
We don't wear a mask today.
We had a lot of fair though cross sass there and you saw that in credit to yes, you could make the argument this morning. You don't see that in credit at the moment. I think it was Jonathan Crinsky yesterday. I have btig who said that market bottoms need doubt. Do you think there is sufficient doubt that you can buy this morning?
You know, I wouldn't back up the truck, but I don't have any problem with layering in at this point.
And where would you layer in because there are a lot of babies to use your words that have been tossed out Tesla Panetin in the video. The list goes on and on. Even Apple was struggling yesterday. Where are those babies?
Well, okay, as you know, because I managed ruddy it up and hurry, they don't.
I mean, just describe it.
I give you please me technol information technology, Communications services, which has which has the search engines, the streamers, and the social media. I would also be looking at a consumer discretionary. The American shopper persists at shopping, even though now a discount private label perhaps, but still shopping. Businesses are still doing what they're doing. And so we would look at financials and the industrials. You know, the industrials are so well positioned to take us into the next
chapter of AI. Industrial equipment that needs to be advanced to create all kinds of developments in terms of whether it's the electric grid, whether it's medicine, whether it's just in finance, what it can do to help us get through all the data that gets What.
About the travel names, John, given the downgrades we've seen from the airlines early this suite, what about the travel names?
You know, I would have to say that's not surprising. Airlines have been remarkably strong for a fairly long.
Period of time.
Uh. You know, we've never been big fans of airlines, whether we're at the airport or whether we're considering what to buy, only because of the nature of that business and the ability of the traveler to suddenly stop traveling abruptly or keep traveling much longer, the ability to charge ridiculously high fares. Uh, you know, it's still I haven't been to Europe in years. But my point is is what happens is it's we need to see more competition come in, and that's going to hurt earning.
What's the old joke, the fastest White's become a millionass start with a billion by a length something like that.
There you go, And I think Buffett learned that years ago at one point, think it was it was it US Air. There was some airline that that Buffett took a position and he limped away from it, which he rarely limps away from that.
A lot of people have been burnt over the decades, that's for sure. Johny's going to see you as always appreciated, John steffis there of Oppenheimen. Let's turn back to the tride story. Tariffs. They former New York Fed President Bill Dutley saying Trump's tariffs will be worse than market's thing right, saying markets seem to think that if the President once stopped the damage, the FED will. I think they're too complacent. They'll joined us now for more. Bill, welcome to the program, sir,
great pace, let's talk about it. Why do you think that's too complacent.
I think the problem is that layers are bad for growth and bad for inflation, which puts a FED in a buying Basically, they're missing by more on both sides of their mandate. So I think in the near term the Fed's could basically be on hold waiting for more information. Trump administration making the matter worse because not only are they putting tariffs in place that are much larger than they do during the first term, they're doing it in a very haphazard, irregular way, which is creating a lot
of uncertainty. You know, the decline in merger activity in the from months of this year is pretty striking. People expect activity pick up with the Trump administration. It's actually gone down because nobody knows what the rules of the game are going to be in terms of relative prices. For inputs relative prices for exports. So people are very confused and people are just sitting on their hands.
Bill, as John was just saying, you wrote this line. Market seem to think that if the President won't stop the damage, the Federal Reserve will with rate cuts. Where do you think they have the political leverage to not cut rates at a time when they are seeing quite a bit of potential destruction to the US economic outlook.
Well, it all depends on what happens to inflation, how high does it go, and too does it get into inflation expectations. The inflation expectations are the key issue for the Fed. The second thing they're going to be focusing on how much does the unemployment rate rise. It's not
about job creation, it's about the unemployent rate. One thing that people don't really understand, I think well is the fact that we don't need a lot of job creation to keep the unemployment rate here, because the growth rate of the labor force has collapsed with the Trump administration deep tape or deporting workers. The number of people coming over the borders has collapsed. The growth rate of the
native border population is really slow. So top speed for the US of commune in terms of keeping unemployer rate where it is probably a fifty thousand in the payroll employment a month, and I think people think that one hundred and fifty two hundred thousand, if it slows to fifty thousand, the Fed's going to cut I think that's wrong.
Well, I understand the argument that the FED put isn't exactly there, that the FED is going to come in and cut rates in response to market turmoil. At the same time, there is an argument that some of the terriff related inflationary forces are one time price adjustments that will eventually come down, especially with a weakening economic outlook, and that they can look through that a bit more in place of bigger emphasis on the unemployment rate and
other economic indicators. Do you push back against that.
Well, again, it depends on whether it gets into inflation expectations. The first term Trump, the tariff increases were relatively modest. It wasn't an inflation issue because inflation was running below the FEDS two percent.
Of this time.
The teriff increases our orders of magnitude larger, and it's happening at the time that inflation has been running well above the FES two percent. Objective for four years, So inflation expectations are the key, and one troubling indicator in that regard is what the University of Michigan Household Expectations Survey showed last month. For five to ten year forward inflation expectations, it rose to three and a half percent,
the highest level since the nineteen nineties. So if that is co corroborated by other inflation expectations indicators, that's going to make it much more difficult.
For the Fed.
Bill You're talking about the upcoming economic projections we're going to get from the Fed, and you say inflation will be increased, but the path for the unemployment rate won't change much as labor force growth slows along with hiring. Are you basically saying the Fed and their projections are going to almost pinpoint stagflation.
Well, I think they have to lower their growth estimates given the uncertainty that the terists are causing and the fact that it makes the real income for lowering households very much squeeze, so they're not going to be able to spend very much. They have to raise inflation because the price level of a lot of these important goods is going to go up pretty significantly, so I think that's sort of in the cards. I think what's going to surprise people is that they're not going to raise
their unemployment rate projectory very much. And I think that people maybe be surprised that they're not going to increase the number of rate cuts they have in their forecasts. Last time, they had two rate cuts for twenty twenty five, and I think they'll keep it right there.
Bill, let's just talk about those forecasts. What is the approach to putting forecasts together in a moment like this. How much of a conversation happens between individual policymakers actually with.
Regard to the summary of economic projections, everyone sort of does their own, so this is not coordinated. You are allowed, towards the end of the Federal over Market Committed meeting to change your forecast based on what you've heard from others, but people rarely do that, So these things are really put into place before the meeting starts and hardly ever changed.
A lot of people expect the statement of economic projection not to really move that significantly, and if they do, for it to essentially be irrelevant because they don't know anything. Do you disagree, do you think that it will be indicative of what kinds of scenario analysis individual members are doing and how much they're incorporating policy for their outlook.
I think the reason that matters is the fact that I think people are looking for the FED to sort of come to the rescue of the economy by cutting rays. And you've seen it in the decline and your treasure note heels over the last few months. And I think the Fed's doing a signal through the Summary of Economic Projections and in chairman press conference, is that no, we're sitting on our hands for the time being.
Bill Tompley with the license great pay sample in black opinion. The Common Secretary had Laton joined us now from Washington, d C. It's the Secretary, welcome back to the program. So always appreciate your time. If we could just take a step back and set the table. What are the stakes for today's mate thing between you and Canadian officials.
Well, I think the stakes today, if you take a look at it from the big picture, is the United States said we need to have steel and aluminum domestically in America.
In national security.
You need medals to make bullets, you need metals to make munitions.
You need medals to make everything.
And Donald Trump is very focused on let's make sure the key ingredients that are necessary to defend America are made here in America. And these other countries they just don't pay attention. I mean, how many times do I have to say national security is important? And if you do like the EU, and you respond by putting a terrifying Kentucky bourbon which used to piss off Mitch McConnell, which doesn't really matter anymore, you gotta wonder, really, really do I have to deal with this stuff?
But alas we do, miss the Secretary, Let's get to Europe in a moment. Let's just stand Canada and that will work our way to the EU if we can. For the Canadians, as you know, they've put tariffs on around twenty one billion dollars of US goods. Well, that changed your approach to today's mating.
Well, I mean take a look at that again. Let's take a step back national security.
We put a tariff on stealing aluminum to make sure the dumping countries of the world stop and we can build up our stealing aluminum in America.
And what does Canada do? They put a.
Tariff on sports equipment. I mean, really, this is just its tone death. Listen to the President national security matters, when he calls out things like semiconductors, he calls out pharmaceuticals, he calls out autos. These are things that matter to us as a country. And if you're going to respond to us with sports equipment, you're just not listening to President Trump.
Satary Lonak, how much are the conversations today actually about bringing up the negotiations when it comes to USNCA.
Well, USMCA, we set aside USMCA. So the United States made a deal with both Mexico and Canada that said if you have enough US content in certain products or it's actually made domestically, they can trade between our countries tax free.
That remains intact.
What is outside of that is both things that don't have that American content that are imported from other countries.
So that has a tarrify on it.
And now the President has said, look, there are certain topics I need to have US make in America, and stealing aluminum is key.
I mean we all understand that.
So why not allow the greatest country in the world who completely feeds Canada Canada exists.
Completely feeds off of.
The amazing economy of the United States of America. Let us build up our steel and aluminum so that we can protect ourselves. And by the way, we protect Canada. I think Canada's got sixty planes. Oh yeah, they're really going to protect themselves. They're really They're the lowest investor in NATO. They totally rely on us, and yet they think they need to respond to steal in aluminum tariffs. I mean, everybody is so used to picking off America,
so used to it that they can't even stop. Donald Trump is here to say, we need to be treated fairly, and we need to be treated fairly.
Now do you think this approach, if you articulate this to the Canadians today, will help bring down the temperature?
I do.
I think once you actually breathe and think steal and aluminum, American needs steal in aluminum.
I mean, if you.
Respond like the British didn't respond, the Mexicans didn't respond, you have some countries that actually thoughtfully examine how they do business with us, and then you have people like the Canadians who are in a so you have no idea. You think it's about a trade war. This is their way of getting election votes. And the EU, you know, the EU is just so many years treated us so harshly.
They just can't stop.
Look, their tariffs are way up here and our tariffs are down here.
How about relax. Let us balance it.
We are your largest most important trading partner. Treat us with respect and let's get a little balance. And Donald Trump is out there saying balance, balance, Balance, April second, he's going to describe his balance. We're going to do it together. We're going to describe our trading policy. We're going to describe our balance. But remember semiconductors we need to have them in America. Pharmaceuticals we need to have in America. Cars we need to have in America. And
steal in aluminum come on America. Oh and lumber as well.
I want to champagne things for our national security.
And the one of champagne. So don't forget the why champagne this?
Come on?
That's that, you know, if you make him unhappy, he responds unhappy. But come on, let's get back to the core basics here, which is a trading policy that says America has allowed the world to lean on us to take from us, to grow off of us. And now it's time for a little balance. We've got a two trillion dollar budget deficit. We want to bring certain jobs home. Let the President do the right thing for America. He will respond after we're done organizing things to make sure
the world grows. But today, just remember he's the president of the United States of America.
He's not the president of the world.
He's going to take care of American workers, and it is.
Time missed the Secretary. I just want to make sure that the audience is in on a little jokes there, because they might have missed the post for the President a couple of minutes ago. So I'm going to share it with them and then come back to you in just a second. So the President of the United States
for this out on true social moments ago said. The European Union, one of the most hostile and abusive taxing entire thing authorities in the world form for the sole purpose of taking advantage of the United States, has just put a nasty fifty percent tariff on whiskey. If this tariff is not removed immediately, the United States will shortly place a two hundred percent tariff on all wines, champagnes and alcoholic products coming out of France and other EU
represented countries. So, missus Secretary, just to bring you in, I imagine you are aware of what the President said based on our conversation just now. Have you given the Europeans a warning on this? Have you're given them a time limit to back away? You're taking the same approach you did with the Canadians just a few days ago.
Well, I think the President has made it crystal clear that he finds this tit for tat really abusive and aggravating. Right, His objective is steel and aluminum tariffs. Let him build his steel and aluminum business in America, because that's important. And then you know, they say, okay, we're going to tax whiskey. And I find all this back and forth really off the topic. The key topic is rebalancing American trade. We're going to spend lots of time together, you know.
But the President was totally annoyed that the Europeans did this. And so you go in a year back from someone who emotionally cares about America. He cares about America and he wants to take care of Americans. And why are Europeans picking on Kentucky Bourbon's Roley Gavidson motorcycle. You're saying this is an emotional respects it's disrespectful.
Are you saying responsive we see, well, we see two hundred tariffs and wine, champagne and alcoholic products before April second, when the President says it's the big one and we're going to get the reciprocal rollout.
Well, the joy of my job is that Donald Trump makes the decisions right and the people around him.
We talk to him and we advise him.
April second is when we do reciprocal tariffs and he just he's called.
Out these products. He wants these countries to respect him.
And all of this showed you is that Europe and Canada do not respect Donald Trump and do not respect America's ability to build it steel an aluminum industry, which.
Is vital for national security. Whereas you watched Mexico and you watch the UK be pragmatic and thoughtful and the way.
We're going to deal with them is going to be better. So these are just black and white things. Why would you put against steel and aluminum When you say Harley Davidson motorcycles and Kentucky Bourbon.
It's just illogical.
I think the President is saying, look, I am going to respond, always bigger and always stronger. We will talk together, you know, he wrote that tweet this morning. We will talk together. If that's what he wants to do, we will do that. But the answer is April second, a thoughtful approach to reciprocity and nash security of those products
he's called out. We're going to increase our domestic production of those and have a reciprocal model, and hopefully when I talk to the Europeans, they'll realize that they should.
Take these things down.
Cool these things out, let's properly negotiate.
Do you have plans to speak to your European counterparts today? Of course, like who are you speaking to, say, Ursula Underlion or potentially some heads of companies like Bernard or no who was also at the President's inauguration.
Generally as the Commerce secretary, I speak to the trade ministers.
That's totally how it got.
A lot of companies also, and I know executives have been calling you, Sarah, Is that not correct? They're looking for exemptions. Exemptions carve outs fall squarely in the Commerce Department.
So let's talk about exemptions for a moment.
Steel and aluminum tariffs went in in twenty eighteen, and when we came back into power, the Biden administration had granted four hundred and ninety thousand exemptions imagine four undred and ninety thousand exemptions to steal.
An illuminum tariffs.
I mean, I don't know that our department could actually collate Ford to ninety thousand Christmas cards, let alone four undred and ninety thousand stealing illuminum tariffs.
I mean, come on, it's ridiculous.
So yesterday what we did is we just got rid of all the exemptions.
That's all we did.
The stealing illuminum tariffs were already on. We just said, look, let's just build back our steal an aluminum industry in America to protect America.
It's so logical, it's so important.
And then all we get you get some countries who understand, in some countries who just go right back to old school, and you know, the President's going to deal with them with strength and with power, and he's remembered that they like to respond with a just go after their wine, and maybe they'll pay attention and listen.
The fact is April second.
We're going to go April second, we're going to go with the reciprocity, thoughtful global.
Process, Secretary Lot, It's going to take a while to actually get those tariffs in place after all of the appeals process, etc. After April second, and in the meantime, as all of these discussions around tariffs continue, a lot of businesses are just halting investments. You're seeing consumer sentiment decline, You're seeing their spending activity decrease. Can you give them a sense of when they'll have certainty.
The opposite actually is coming true.
You saw Apple five hundred billion dollars, You saw a SoftBank two hundred billion dollars, Eli Lilly forty billion dollars.
A meeting a.
Company today who sent me notes saying they want to invest sixty five billion in America, the scale by which American companies are committed to invest in America and global.
Company Secretary, when I'm talking about she let me explain to you what I'm.
Taching investments and those are coming well, let me finish, these are huge investments coming to America.
Over one point seven.
Trillion committed in Donald Trump's first fifty days. Anyone who thinks people are uncertain doesn't understand what Donald Trump is saying. He's saying, bring your production to America and you will avoid all the tariffs. Come build in the greatest economy in the world, and you will avoid tariffs.
That's maybe long term, but what we're seeing in the short term is that small business confidence has fall into a.
Four month low.
They say, a high degree of uncertainty about what the regime is going to look like. They talk about likelihood increasing, likelihood of having to increase prices in response to the tariffs. You're seeing this with respect to airplane tickets that are falling off a cliff as of February. I'm just wondering, when you take a look at these types of indicators, at what point does it become concerning to you.
The greatest dealmaker who's ever lived is sitting behind the desk.
In the Oval Office.
He understands that the best way to get our farmers, our ranchers, and our fishermen's produce and products in the rest of the world, which they block it. I mean India blocks our farmers. All these countries block our farmers. The way to grow it is to make deals with them where they have to understand the power of the US economy is that you need to take our products. We want to unleash American ingenuity and the capacity to export and when other countries put giant, giant.
Tariffs on our products.
Let's be clear. You can't go to Europe and see an American car. You can't go to Korea and see an American car. You can't go to Japan and see an American car. But you sure see their cars here. So the concept of Donald Trump saying, hang on a minute, you have got to be kidding. We need to unleash the American economy.
And if we've got.
To teach the rest of the world to treat us with respect, that they have beaten on us, and they.
Have abused us, and their.
Tariffs are so so high that they've got to actually treat us with respect. Bring down their tariffs so that it's reciprocal.
Remember, they will never.
Live with us having the tariffs as high as they have them. So what they're going to do is they're going to bring them down. Let Donald Trump run this economy. He knows what he's doing better than any president who's ever sat at that desk.
Let him do his job.
There's going to be a lot of talking, but in the end, there's going to be the greatest growth economy America's ever seen. We are going to export and people are going to build in America. Those two things are going to happen, and they're going to happen because Donald Trump's going.
To create fair trade.
Start saying the word fair trade, because right now trade in America.
Go look at the numbers.
Un fair, Europe huge, India huge, right, China the highest.
There's no inflation in these countries.
What there is is blocking Americans from doing business there.
And Donald Trump is going to break down those walls.
Let's talk about China. So we heard from a Foreign Ministry official in China who said this that Beijing has done the United States a favor and Washington should have said a big thank you for all they've done to control drugs. And I imagine they're alluding to Fensanel directly, mister Secretary. I just wonder if the President has seen those comments in the last twenty four hours and what its response is to them.
The President, as we have said on April twod, is going to take a holistic approach to everything. March has been the month to reduce the right the board and fentanyl deaths in America, and I hope to god China's reducing the production of the fentanyl ingredients that kill seventy five thousand or top seed Americans, and as the President rightly knows, that number is way way more. We need them.
We need China to stop making the ingredients, and we need Mexico and Canada to stop shipping them into our country. That is March. March is very very focused on that. Hopefully they'll get down and we'll have a good, a good reduced border. Obviously that's so far, so good, but we need to reduce those fentanyl deaths. And then come April, you're going to see us start to focus on.
Lowering tariff away and increasing.
Tariffs at home, so at least we get a little ballance if they want to lower them. Reciprocal tariffs mean take them down and we'll take we'll keep ours.
Den any implication that we do so it ramping up tariffs over the line months on China, Have they given any indication they're prepared to do that? Just to stress test this theory, because taras's been ramping up China over the last ten years now, any indication they're willing to actually step back and do what you're asking them to do.
You know, China is always a separate thinking. You know, the Chinese Communist Party thinks about things in a much, much different way than everybody else. And I don't know how they're going to deal with bringing these things down.
I would like them to bring it down.
They have a huge market, but remember we consume more than two times what they consume. They have a big economy, but they're a production economy.
They sell to us. They need to sell to us.
We are the greatest consuming economy in the world. We are the customer that everybody in the world needs. Now, they put huge tariffs in China because they're trying to build up their consumer production domestically, and that's where they stand. So you don't hear all of you talking about how horrible China is and all the inflation in China and all this sort of stuff.
It's just not true. The fact is America is going.
To build up its industries here, drive down tariffs there. I don't know what China will do, but my expectation is the whole world who trades with us will bring down their tariffs and allow our farmers, ranchers and seamen, allow our production, allow our car manufacturers to export more and grow. We are looking for fair trade. Secretary Trade, Let's say it over and over again.
We got it.
I think it could maybe be a bumper sticker for you. There are reports this week that potentially underway our plans for Shijing ping to meet with Donald Trump.
Are we expecting a.
Meeting between these two leaders either in the spring or early summer.
I mean, look, the President runs his agenda, but from my perspective, when strong leaders meet each other, that is useful and effective for the world. But Donald Trump will make those decisions himself. I am focused on reciprocal tariffs. On April second, I am not in the agenda of who President Trump decides he wants.
To meet Secretary Lutnak or just two minutes away from the latest indicator from the United States, which is PPI data and inflation read and initial jobless claims. You've talked about how the data that we are getting right now is Biden data. At what point does it become Trump data.
I'd say we fully wear the fourth quarter, and we may well wear much of.
The third quarter. But for fourth quarter, for sure.
You know, the American economy, right, a twenty nine trillion dollar economy. You can't take office on Monday and have the news media say, oh, look what you did on Tuesday.
I mean, come on, that's so silly.
So the real way the world works is for sure, the fourth quarter is Donald Trump's quarter, and the third quarter it starts his policies start to really embed in America. So that's the right way to look at it. First and second quarter are Biden's sort of left behind difficulty, and then you see Donald Trump dig us out, build us up, and buy.
The fourth quarter, you're going to.
See growth rates because we got all these companies committing to build in America, get their shovels in the ground, because we get regulations out of the way, start to produce those jobs, start to bring back trade craft. You know, electricians who build giant factories, HVAC specialists who cool those, and then mechanics who fix robots.
You've got trade craft coming back to America. It's going to be amazing.
We're going to have the greatest training program ever because we need to train our great workers for the AI revolution and the tech revolution that is coming that Donald Trump is bringing to construction and development in America, and we need to train our people and they're going to have great.
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