Bloomberg Surveillance TV: June 20, 2024 - podcast episode cover

Bloomberg Surveillance TV: June 20, 2024

Jun 20, 202432 min
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Episode description

- Anastasia Amoroso, iCapital Chief Investment Strategist, 
- Jonathan Miller, Miller Samuel Inc President
- Seth Carpenter, Morgan Stanley Chief Global Economist
- Savi Synth, Raymond James Managing Director, Equity Research

Anastasia Amoroso of iCapital gives an update on markets at near record highs and updates her outlook following the recent rally stating she believes there's a fair bit of economic momentum globally. Miller Samuel's Jonathan Miller reacts to state of the housing market and mortgage rates as Manhattan apartment rents slipped in May. Seth Carpenter of Morgan Stanley reacts to data and shares the impact of impact of global elections on markets saying we're going to see slower growth over 2024 relative to 2023. Savi Synth of Raymond James provides insight on the outlook for airlines and travel going into summer.

See omnystudio.com/listener for privacy information.

Transcript

Speaker 1

Bloomberg Audio Studios, Podcasts, radio News.

Speaker 2

This is the Bloomberg Surveillance Podcast. I'm Jonathan Ferrow, along with Lisa Bromwitz and am Marie Hortenn. Join us each day for insight from the best in markets, economics, and geopolitics from our global headquarters in New York City. We are live on Bloomberg Television weekday mornings from six to nine am Eastern. Subscribe to the podcast on Apple, Spotify or anywhere else you listen, and as always on the Bloomberg Terminal and the Bloomberg Business App.

Speaker 1

Joining us now is Seth Carpenter of Morgan Stanley. We're so pleased to say, Seth, what stands out to you initial job as claims actually having an upward trend or this idea that housing is flat on its back.

Speaker 3

I mean, I think if I take them all together, I'm actually pretty constructive on the US for this year as a whole.

Speaker 4

However, I think it's clear to me that.

Speaker 3

We need to see we're going to see slower growth over twenty two twenty four relative to twenty twenty three, and so the incremental softening that you all were talking about when you talked about jobless claims where they were going. He always came back with some sort of adverb to modify how much it was up, sort of slightly modestly or whatever. So it's not as though things are falling off of a cliff. I think for the housing sector

it's really important. The supply for single family homes is clearly constrained because anybody who's got a two and a half or three and a half percent mortgage, they're staying put, and so the supply, as Mike was saying, is constrained. On the other hand, monetary policy has always worked through the housing sector primarily, and I think builders have to be a bit cautious because they got to ask themselves where is demand going to be, and so what does

it mean? I think it just means all cumulatively together, we're getting that modest slowing in the economy. We think things should slow down. We think inflation's coming down as well, and taking together that allows the FED to cut But I don't for now see any of these data as being harbingers of just doom somehow that we're going to go off of a cliff anytime soon.

Speaker 1

Well, we can find plenty of people who probably do find it doom saying, and this sort of question of a tipping point has often been thrown out there Neil data saying this is a time to cut race, because if you don't, you never see a linear increase in unemployment. You never see a linear kind of weakening in the

jobs picture. What gives you comfort that we're not seeing the precipice of some sort of market increase in unemployment at a time where we are seeing an inflection higher in jobless claims.

Speaker 3

Well, we've also never seen an economic recovery from a global pandemic like the one we're living through right now. So as we were coming out of the pandemic, there were lots of frictions, lots of dislocations, lots of things trying to sort out where to be. Businesses were running shorthanded for years at a time, and so now we're seeing them settling into Wow, this is staffing closer to what we're going to want in the long run. And so that kind of readjustment from a truly unprecedented shock.

I think we're now starting to move into the more normal stage. So to say that we haven't seen this situation but four is true on the other hand, we haven't seen this situation before, and so drawing massive conclusions about whether or not this sort of pattern is telling us something. I think we want to be super cautious not.

Speaker 5

To ask you to draw a massive conclusion, but can you add just the retail data we got from earlier the week into this that there does seem to be some price fatigue. So you have companies who are not as worried about labor shortages and now their margins are starting to get squeezed.

Speaker 3

Absolutely, so we think of this as all going in the same direction. If we look even the full quarter for the first quarter, where we have all the data for the quarter, durable goods spending quarter on quarter was negative. Non durable goods inflation adjusted was flat quarter on quarters, So where the residual strength was for the consumer was in services. That's exactly this sort of slowdown that we've

been expecting to see. And I think the retail sales data again overweight goods, sort of shows you know, the consumer is not dead. The consumer hasn't stopped spending entirely. The consumer hasn't said that's it for me, I'm checking out. Instead, what they said was, yeah, we've already bought lots of lawn furniture, We've already bought lots of computer screens, We've already bought a home office three times over.

Speaker 4

Maybe it's time to cool down a bit.

Speaker 6

Two issues you just brought up there. One is consumers and they're concerned about higher prices so becoming more discerning. But also what's going on in the labor market. Two issues that you say are the biggest when it comes to you a selection tariffs, which many would say inflationary, and also immigration. How are you looking at twenty twenty five.

Speaker 3

With a lot of trepidation because lots of different things could happen. I agree with you when clients ask us questions about the elections, Immigration and tariffs are two really important things I would say to the earlier conversation about have we ever seen a situation where the unemployment rate drifts up gently over time?

Speaker 4

It's not very common.

Speaker 3

On the other hand, neither is the kind of increase in the labor force that we're seeing from immigration. That's not very common either, And so in lots of ways, though, gentle ride in the unemployment rate that we've seen four percent unemployment, I'm will enough to remember when four percent was considered pretty good.

Speaker 4

So we did see a rise.

Speaker 3

On net but a big chunk of that has been coming at least over the past year from increases in supply, and I think immigration matters there. And so with the election, we put out a piece of research for our clients over the past week or so, and you could see a range of outcomes of what happens to the labor force depending on policies that go to get put in place in there. I just think the range of outcomes in the election is vast, and we have to be

super humble about what's going to happen. You could see big constriction in the labor supply, which would be adverse for growth and could be inflationary. Or you could see things sort of status quo, a little bit of a reduction, in which case the economy gets to trundle on.

Speaker 6

We have to be humble or the fetest to be humble. How do they think about these kind of contential massive changes while they're deciding whether or not they're going to make a cup before.

Speaker 4

The year end.

Speaker 3

So I think humility is called for all around, particularly for anyone in economic where we're not particularly good at it. On average, we need to practice humility a lot for the FED, they're going to have to sit back and wait on the policies. I do think if we listen to J. Powell, if we listen to sort of where our analysis is that monetary policy is currently restrictive, they can come off of the peak now this year and not have to worry about having done too much in

terms of easing policy. I think as we get into twenty twenty five, though, they probably do need to think a lot more about what the election outcomes mean for policy, fiscal policy, tariff policy, all other policy, immigration policy before they can have any sort of conviction about which way they need.

Speaker 4

To go with policy.

Speaker 1

I asked Terry Wiseman, is this fun? And he just said, no, is this fun for you?

Speaker 3

This is, I have say, one of the most challenging macroeconomic environments to do forecasting in. And it's a double edged sword because, on the one hand, very hard to do forecasting when there's so many cross currents in so many situations that you haven't seen before. On the other hand, maybe it's a good time to be a forecaster because nobody else knows what's going on.

Speaker 1

Either well, The reason why I ask this is just simply because when I try to put together even the themes to really hook into, I'm not sure which takes pre eminence. I'm not sure if it's the rate cutting cycle, I'm not sure if it's the weakening, or I'm not sure if it's some of the disruptions that are causing inflationary increases. I don't have a sense of where the

balance of risks are. Is it that any cut rates you have a resurgence in inflation, or as if you don't cut soon enough, you fall off a cliff into recession. I can make a good argument for any of these, and I believe it. So how do you sort of plan with any kind of long term forecast When the likes of Muhammadellary you're saying, if you don't have that type of long term forecast, you're going to have a mistake and you're going to have just volatile markets that are going to essentially break No.

Speaker 3

So I think that's fair. Lots of volatility in the real side of the economy and in markets. I do think the time horizon matters a lot. So some of our clients are very short term focused and they're say for the rest of this year.

Speaker 4

I feel pretty constructive.

Speaker 3

I don't see a scenario where the US really falls off of the cliff over the course of twenty twenty four. I do see inflation coming down over the rest of this year pretty substantially, and with that, I do see the FED cutting getting beyond that. To the mid medium term outlook, I think the uncertainty absolutely goes up. I think the elections are a huge component to which way things go, and I think it is impossible to have

high conviction. So the best thing investors can do, the best thing policy makers can do is to think about all of the outcomes contingently and to try to come up with your best set of scenarios. And then you will end up in one of the scenarios over time. But you really have to do a lot of advanced planning. This is one of the reasons why when we talk to our clients we try to say we're.

Speaker 4

Not going to tell you.

Speaker 3

We're not going to predict what's going to happen.

Speaker 4

With the election. That's a mugs game.

Speaker 3

However, if we think across the different plausible scenarios, hear what the key outcomes would be for fiscal for tariffs, for immigration, and then here's how you should try to think about.

Speaker 4

Plan for that.

Speaker 5

Just to add to this, because this idea, it's been a criticism of the FED that they're not being more clear in their outlooks. They keep saying we're waiting for more data. There are people been clamoring who say, no, give us something concrete, give us a clear direction. But what you and Lisa were just describing as one where there is not a clear direction. So how would you

rate FED communication in this environment? Should they be giving us scenario analysis, should they be giving us more clear forecasts? Or is it right just to say, look, we need more data, we don't know right now.

Speaker 3

Yeah, I think, especially the way you framed it, when some of the FOMC members sort of ask me questions about how they're doing, I actually think under these circumstances they're doing a pretty good job. The quip I like to give them is be as clear as you can be, but by all means, be no more clear than that. And I think they would be doing themselves a disservice.

They'd be doing markets a disservice if they tried to be precise at a time when you can't be precise, and I think that would be false precision.

Speaker 4

I think would be false confidence.

Speaker 3

And so when the world turns out different than expected and they have to change course, which is exactly what they should do, everyone will complain, Oh my gosh, you told us you're going to do one thing, and now you're doing something else. So just buy Nvidia.

Speaker 1

Organ Stantley, thank you. Savvi's site of Raymond James joining us. Now, Savvi, what are you expecting to hear from some of these investment meetings, the latest being from Delta at a time where it seems like there is an ongoing divergence between people going across Atlantic versus domestic.

Speaker 7

Yeah, even in the domestic market, you know, things are really strong.

Speaker 8

Is this good demand?

Speaker 7

There's a little bit of oversupply, And I think that's the difference between the Atlantic and the domestic markets is we're still kind of getting back to you twenty nineteen levels in the Transatlant market, whereas capacity in the domestic market has surpassed that.

Speaker 8

So demand is really strong. But you're right, there is still strong demand in the Atlantic.

Speaker 7

Despite you know what we looked at last summer as being maybe pent up demand.

Speaker 6

Tom a pricing standpoint, Do you think that domestically you can get you know, cheaper airfares the way you're not going to be able to get going transatlantic this summer.

Speaker 7

I do believe so, and I think you're seeing that in the data. We've seen pricing being a little bit softer. You saw airlines in the first quarter really pull back their growth a little bit.

Speaker 8

But as we got into.

Speaker 7

The second quarter and heading into the summer, you're seeing a high single mid to high single digit growth in the domestic market, and that's kind of creating, especially if you're willing to have flexibility in some of those off peak days or times there.

Speaker 8

Are some better pricing available out there.

Speaker 7

But as we're heading into July, we're definitely seeing fair strengthen here.

Speaker 6

When you look at the domestic market, who's winning this space especially we are seeing cheaper airfares.

Speaker 8

Yeah, I mean, I think consumer wins. There's a lot of kind of optionality out there. The fares are coming in better. You'll hear a lot of.

Speaker 7

The executives say that we're seeing record revenue, and that's true. I think this is probably the highest revenue this industry has seen.

Speaker 8

The problem is we also as having record costs. You've seen a lot of.

Speaker 7

Labor costs increases, few well stable, which is great news for the industry. It is still higher than what it was in twenty nineteen. So there are airlines that are kind of struggling a bit more. I think those airlines exposed to corporate demand, especially large corporate demand that is starting to see a nice recovery here. I think they'll stand out better heading into the summer season.

Speaker 5

Sabbi Lisa has been talking about how we're expecting a record travel season, especially around fourth of July, and the ability of airlines, whether they're ready for whether they have enough updated planes, and what the airports will look like. Can you just contextualize the chaos that all of us should expect if we're planning to travel this summer.

Speaker 8

I always be ready.

Speaker 7

The thing with summer is you have these thunderstorms that just pop up from nowhere, and then kind of winter storms. You can see it coming, you can prepare for it, and that's the issue. Air traffic control centers, especially in the Northeast and a little bit Florida, are still understaffed, and so the risk of disruption is greater when there are events, and you know, summer means there are going to be storms somewhere, and so just kind of be flexible.

But I think airlines have done a lot to help address that. You've seen, you know, some airlines just to change the way they build a network. Some airlines just taking advantage of what the FA has loved them to do and kind of bring down capacity in the Northeast to make sure.

Speaker 8

That there's reliability. So I do expect this to.

Speaker 7

Be a better summer than we've seen for a couple of years, But it all depends on the weather.

Speaker 8

So I would say, kind of be prepared and flexible.

Speaker 5

You're giving me like a little bit of confidence, So I feel better about this. Zevihia. How about this Spirit, United and Jet Blue all delaying their analyst days.

Speaker 4

What's going on?

Speaker 8

They all delayed it for very different reasons.

Speaker 7

So United, you know, they had that FA review and they just didn't feel like that that was the right time to do it.

Speaker 8

If you look at Spirit.

Speaker 7

It sounds like they still they are trying to come up with a standalone business plan and there are some initiatives that are trying to roll out, and maybe that's taking longer.

Speaker 8

Maybe they think that the.

Speaker 7

Bondhold bondholded discussions might take a little bit longer and want that behind them. But generally, look, there's just a lot of uncertainty, whether you look at supply chain, whether you're looking at the economy, and I think airlines are feeling much more comfortable to do their investor dates towards the end of the year, when they'll have better.

Speaker 8

Clarity on twenty twenty five.

Speaker 7

Even when it comes to what the aircraft deliveries that they can expect, it's better to provide.

Speaker 8

That towards the end of the year than doing closer to the summer.

Speaker 1

Sally Sythe of Raymond James, thank you so much for being with Jonathan Miller of Miller Samuel writing this. When the Fed does cut, I suspect there will be an outsize pickup in sales, even with only a twenty five basis point cut. Many it would be buyers have been waiting two and a half years to see easing rates.

Jonathan joins us. Now, this to me, Jonathan, is really one of the most interesting questions, and I love having you on as always that there is this belief that when you cut rates, you can do so in a way that isn't going to reignite animal spirits. How much of a rate cut you see only twenty five basis points of a rate cut as reigniting a lot of

interest in the housing market. So how does that factor into pricing in this idea that we can get a soft landing with rate cuts given the backdrop that we have right now, well.

Speaker 9

I think that outsized response to the twenty five basis point cut or a modest cut of some sort. You have to think of the last two and a half years have been this era of pent up demand that suddenly the sort of legs are cut out from under the housing market and people that were in the process of thinking about it were stopped on the tracks, and everybody's waiting. And the problem with the waiting part is that when if you have a rate cut and this surge of an activity, I think you're going to see

prices rise again. That the only way for more supply. That's been one of the reasons why we've had such price growth is inventory has been very lacking. We are seeing inventory come in, but we haven't seen the same

amount of demand respond to it because of rates. So when you see rates cut you're going to see a surge, at least in the short run, you're going to see a surge in demand, and that's going to keep prices elevated, which has sort of broken all the rules of economics, where we're talking about record price and mortgage rates are more than double where they were.

Speaker 1

There was a theory out there that when the Fed cuts rates, that's actually going to cause more volume to come on to the markets. You'll actually see more houses go out there, which will actually cause prices to fall because you'll actually get price discovery in a way that we haven't had for four years.

Speaker 4

Why don't you believe that?

Speaker 9

So let's take a market like Miami, and there's been lots of discussion about inventories coming in. Over the last year, inventory has risen about thirty eight percent, so you'd think, wow, you know, prices are going to be challenged, But that inventory result of after that increase is still twenty five percent below pre pandemic. So when you look at the percentage of inventory growth, and we are seeing it, and it is good for consumers in the long run, but

it's not enough yet. That there was such an incredible deficit of supply that sort of you know, a high percent or whatever the local market number, you know, the sort of headline grabbing increase in inventory is still coming from a record low, and it's not it's not even I want to say, it's not even close. But it's still well below long term norms. And that's the dilemma, you know, it's sort of you know, everybody's waiting for

rates to to to become more affordable. But in the meantime, I think we're going to see price growth, and so someone waiting for a lower rate, you know, another you know, another fifty basis or even more, Uh, they're going to be disappointed because I think two or three years from now, prices are going to be higher than they are now, even with more supply coming into the market. For example, in a lot of suburbs that we track, bidding wars, especially in the New York metro area are forty to

fifty percent of the closings. So what does that tell you about supply. It tells you that it's extremely low. It's not the same in every market. Some markets have more supply than others, but it is still a challenge in housing right now is supply and the FED you know, if you look at what happened this spring, this is a very underwhelming spring market, right. I think consumers were expecting, you know, this is you know, rates are going to come down and we're going to see this sonic boom

of demand. But rates until the last few weeks have really been sort of stuck at an elevated level, and you're not going to see a lot of You didn't see the surge that everybody was expecting this spring, and now the consumers are you know, I don't know if anybody's taking the forecast seriously because it's like we just keep setting the rate cut date two or three months from now.

Speaker 5

If you are one of these people who had been hoping for that twenty five basis point cut to be the thing that ignites things and not just ignites things, but to Lisa's point, makes housing prices going down. Asking for a friend, when does that moment come? How long will it take for enough supply to come online that actually you see some relief.

Speaker 9

I think it's three or more years. I think it's not a couple of quarters. I think it's a long process because rates were too low for too long during the pandemic and literally existing inventory was wipe clean off off the earth basically, and we're coming from a very low point and that's a challenge. And in fact, in this period, new development or new construction, which is only ten percent of supply, is where we could see faster supply coming into the market. Except but that's only ten

percent of the market. The other ninety percent is based on organic growth, and it's starting from a very low point, and that's the challenge.

Speaker 6

Can we talk about the rental market in New York Manhattan? Prices are actually decreasing?

Speaker 4

Why?

Speaker 9

Yes, actually Manhattan. So the way to think of pricing in Manhattan on the rental market is it's almost like it's a choppy I don't know if you call it a bottom, but it's this one month, it's up, one month it's down. It's been like this for about six or seven months, but still remaining at very elevated levels. In fact, rents right now are about twenty percent higher than before the pandemic.

Speaker 1

So I guess that when you put all this together, this is actually kind of a counter to what the FED is saying. They're saying that actually when they cut rates, they're going to be just adjusting things and that inflation will continue to go down and that rents are just a lagging indicator and that they're coming down much faster.

From what you're saying, it sounds like that's not the case, and that when they cut rates, they're going to reignite some of the price increases that have kept inflation where it is given where rents fall in terms of waiting in the inflation metric, Is that true? Is that kind of how you see So.

Speaker 9

That's how I see it. But the sort of the bigger question mark for me is that sort of initial burst in activity of a modest rate cut. How long does that surge or that pent up demand last? You know, is this a six month phenomenon? Is this a long term phenomenon? You know, that's the question in my mind? How long will this hold up?

Speaker 1

Jonathan Miller, It's always wonderful to see you. Thank you so much for being with us, Jonathan Miller of Miller Samuel At a time when people around this table are inquiring minds about rents and buying home.

Speaker 6

Two out of three are two out of three are?

Speaker 10

Some people have a locked in mortgage of about three percent, But whatever.

Speaker 1

And Asasia Amrosovi capital saying this, our market's becoming too stretched. The answer is definitely a yes, near term, and I think it's time for a breather after a monster rally we've had since Abook twenty second and a Stasia joins us. Now, so are you bearish or are you just basically acknowledging that, Yeah, things feel pretty heady, and so yeah, things could happen.

Speaker 11

Look, you have to trade this market. You have to take a week to week. And you know, if I look at video right now, if I look at the NASDAK, if I look at, for example, the relative strength indicator, it has been screaming over bought for probably the last week or maybe a little bit longer. And when you have this condition, you know something is inevitably going to happen, and you're going to have some consolidation, You're going to have some pullback. So yes, I do think the trades

like Nvidia and the NASDAK near term are overstretched. But that's why I really emphasize, Lisa the word near term is because I do think they are fundamental catalysts that are propping up this rally, whether it's in semiconductors or something else. And I don't think those fundamental are going to dissipate near term too much exuberance, for sure.

Speaker 1

The problem with this idea that fundamentals are good. Sure, but how do you price out the kind of gains that we're seeing. How do you price in one and a half trillion dollars of market cap gains in less than a year for a company with a business model The yes seems to be hinged to the future, but that is not necessarily tested in terms of longevity, right.

Speaker 4

But you can see it in the data. You can see it in the numbers.

Speaker 11

You can see it in the spending intentions, for example from hyperscalers and also other companies and other governments trying to build that artificial intelligence.

Speaker 4

You know.

Speaker 11

I don't think it's a coincidence that the stock is rallied as much as it did when you have I think in the last quarter you have a four hundred and twenty seven year over year increase in data center spending on Nvidia chips. So that's what I mean by fundamentals,

and I don't think that's a one off obviously. I don't think it's a couple of quarters, but it might still be into twenty twenty five that we see this surgeon spending on artificial intelligence, because let's face it, this is the biggest, you know, megatrend that we have today, and you're either going to implement artificial intelligence or you're

going to be left behind. And that's why everybody from a hyperscaler to I think a smaller fintech company, you know, to probably a logistics producer, all of those companies are figuring out how to embed AI, and you can't do that without those core.

Speaker 5

Chips, even though some of the fundamentals are there. If I wanted to build a really successful trading strategy this year, what kind of would have been simple? I'd get all of my best quant friends together, which you know I have many, not really, you know, and put together an equity momentum strategy. In fact, that strategy has done so well market neutral momentum that it's the best year from it for two thousand and seven. So it's clear that

a lot of algos are writing this wave. I'm worried about the bots.

Speaker 11

Should I be well, if the trend is your friend, you know, you shouldn't be right. But the question is, you know, what's going to derail this at the very moment, and actually this is something that we're thinking about as we ponder the second half.

Speaker 4

Of the year. What are the risks?

Speaker 11

You know, one of the risks is that maybe growth is too weak. The other one is growth is too strong, you know. The third one is maybe in Nvidia or artificial intelligence doesn't deliver a nearer term, so I think, and of course there's politics. There's the elections in France and the United States. So if any of those things present a hiccup that I think that's when you worry about the unwinds of those trends. But I think the comfort level in the market right now is that those

are periphery risks. But we are, and we've been talking about this, we're in the sweet spot right now because you know, if growth is strong, that's great for all sorts of trades. If growth is weak, well, guess what the FED is going to step in and actually cut interest rates. So that's why I think so many investors have been sticking with the trades that are working.

Speaker 5

Even so, even if growth is strong, you look at what some of their earnings estimates are for next year. We're at fourteen percent, I think is the latest consensus, which would make it the strongest year for S and P earnings since two thousand and eight, if you get rid of some of the COVID weirdness from twenty twenty one. Does that make sense to you or do we need to reckon with something different if there is a tinge of slowdown in this economy.

Speaker 11

Look, this makes sense to me because one of the things I'm encouraged by, beyond their artificial intelligence, you know, momentum, is that I actually think there's a fair bit of economic momentum globally. You know, for example, it was all about the US consumer really holding out the overall global economy. We still have the US consumer, but we now also have the global economy that's pacing something like four percent growth versus point eight percent that we saw just a

few months ago. We also have the global manufacturing momentum that's really picking up in the United States and China and Korea, Taiwan, Europe. So that's a whole lot of to Lisa's point, broadening out that I actually think is playing out beneath the surface.

Speaker 6

Based off the retail sales that surprised the downside earlier this week, are you concerned at all about cracks in the US consumer.

Speaker 11

You know, it's the story of that bifurcation. Unfortunately that continues to play out. And for example, when we look at the spending intentions and the perception of prices across the consumer cohorts, and fortunately the lower income consumer is seeing that price pressure and is therefore lowering the spending intentions.

Speaker 3

You know.

Speaker 11

So that's that's one thing that you don't actually see the same dynamic in the higher income consumer.

Speaker 4

You know.

Speaker 11

The other thing that's happening, of course, when you look at credit card default rates for example, that's the same dichotomy. We're seeing some of the normalization and the lower income cohort and those delinquencies rising. But that's not the case, for example, when you look at American Express and you look at those default rates. And the last thing I would say, look, retail sales are important, but it's not

your entire consumption basket. You know, it's what you spend at some of the online shops and brick and mortar and you know, gas stations. But when you think about what, especially the high income cohor is going to be spending on, it's entertainment, it's travel and you're seeing very strong momentum in those parts of the economy.

Speaker 6

I also want to ask you about the politics of Europe, because you have a call on this. You think now is the time to actually pile in.

Speaker 4

I do.

Speaker 10

I do.

Speaker 11

We wrote a piece and we called it the Summer of Europe. And you know, I don't think it's just a summer trade. You know, I think beyond the politics. I'll come back to this in a second, but beyond the politics, I think there's a lot of strong economic momentum that's playing out in Europe. If you think about Europe, in the last couple of years, you had a spike in oil, in natural gas prices. You had a spike in mortgage rates because fifty three percent of those mortgage

rates are adjustable rate mortgages. So there's a lot of pain that has occurred for the European consumer. But you fast forward to today and we have one rate cut that's already in place, hopefully more to come. And so I think the peak pain from mortgage rates is now behind us in Europe. And so when I look at the real disposable income and the forecast that we have for this year and next, they're supposed to pick up relative to where they've been last year. So that's why

fundamentally business confidence is recovering in Europe. And I think there's a lot to like from the economics. And then you know, when you look at prior election cycles, for example, twenty seventeen, we did see that volatility picks up into the election. It's likely subsidies thereafter, So I think there's enough precedent to say that election volatility should be bought.

Speaker 1

Do you think that basically travelers going to single handedly support the European economy. I'm just so well, I mean.

Speaker 11

I don't know about you, but you know, as far as everybody I talked, seems to be heading to Europe this summer, right, and obviously there's data to support that as well.

Speaker 1

Yeah, well, I mean, I'm just wondering how much this is actually going to help. When you put out all together what you're saying, it seems as though you're not bearish on Nvidia, but you're not bullish particularly at this point in order to sort of see a massive surge. Basically, don't get out, but it might be a little late to get in, and that basically right now, the gains

are to be had elsewhere. Is that basically the way that you would frame it, that independent of all the uncertainties of rate cutting cycles and elections, that right now, if you just follow the economics, things aren't that bad.

Speaker 4

They're not going to get that bad.

Speaker 1

The broadening out is going to work, and some of the really kind of expensive trades might need to pause.

Speaker 11

For Yeah, that's right. I think there's some rebalancing that can be done in the portfolios right now. I don't think you should wholesale get out of the video or the the Nasdaq trade, but maybe just maybe you want to pair back some of those gains that you've had in the position. It may you want to reallocate some of those parts of the market that actually consolidated over the last couple of months and have not participated. And so things that I would be looking to is partially

consumer discretionary, consumer finance. I mentioned this some delinquencies arising, but they're actually you know.

Speaker 8

Pretty well in check and normal.

Speaker 11

You know, you may want to look at an industrial's sector as well, because actually the manufacturing momentum is rising, and manufacturing apswing typically lasts about nine months, so I'm not satying getting wholesale out of the winners, but peel a little bit back and reallocate to the broadening out trade and.

Speaker 1

Then I seed. Also my speed time for vacation. Have a great time on your vacation. On the other side at the Shamrosi Capital.

Speaker 2

This is the Bloomberg Sevenants podcast, bringing you the best in markets, economics, an gio politics. You can watch the show live on Bloomberg TV weekday mornings from six am to nine am Eastern. Subscribe to the podcast on Apple, Spotify, or anywhere else you listen, and as always on the Bloomberg Terminal and the blimp buck bestess out

Speaker 7

Mm hmm.

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