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Bloomberg Terminal and the Bloomberg Business app. Tawson's slock of Apollo, writing the consensus expects inflation to rise in the US but fall in the Eurozone. Tawson joins us. Now for more, Towson, Let's focus on the US side of things, and then we can get to a more global dimension. Let's focus on the US with the tariffs in mind. Is it too early, Tawson to expect those tariffs to show up in the day of this morning?
No, it's not.
What really is the key is you hear is that there is indeed going to view some upside pressure on inflation.
And what's most critical.
About this is that it's all about the behavior among companies.
How do they respond to teriffs.
Do they pass on one hundred percent, will they pass on fifty percent, or will they pass on nothing.
If they pass on nothing, of course.
Then terraffs have to be absorbed by the E and the PE ratio and amy by earnings. So it becomes very important the data prints today and for the coming months, and we should expect to see some upside pressure on inflation coming from terrorists. But it's also the upside pressure we're watching that's coming from what's going on with the dollar. The dollar is down quite significant since the beginning of the year. This is also beginning to creep in as
a risk to the upside for inflation. And finally, the other thing that's also beginning to become risk is that the restrictions and immigration we saw last Friday some upweight pressure on wage inflation. This is also something that's an upside risk to inflation over the coming months. So the bottom line to a question Jonathan, is that we should expect to see from a number of different forces upside pressure on inflation for the next several months, including in the data today.
Will it be sustained beyond the next several months, tossing as you alluded to. As you indicated, that is the key question right now, the central question for a lot of people in financial markets. What is on your dashboard that guides that view.
Well, my dashboard is to type ECFC, go on Bloomberg and look at what the consensus is expecting, and that will tell you that CPI is expected to go up from two point six to three point three by the end of the year. So that's roughly a half a percentage point increase in inflation. And that's the same for
core PCE and for headline PCE. So the issue there is that we should expect to see this take quite some time because it all depends on the company's behavior in terms of when do they begin to implement higher prices on the back of inflation going up. And that is something that in the profile of inflation onambiguously pushes
us up above three percent. And this is very important because the starting point if we had started with inflation today at one and a half and we had half of percent, then we're going to get much closer to the feeds target. But the problem is that the levels we're at two point eight of inflation today is already at a level that is.
Significant above the FED target. Too.
If you add a shock of lifting another half of a percentage point to inflation, that really complicates the FED job and therefore makes it very difficult for them to cut breaks in the environment whether there's so much upweight pressure on inflation.
So turstin in all other things being equal, world, right, when you slap a tariff on the price of those goods move up.
I think that's clear.
There are some offsets though, potentially, and I'm interested in your thoughts there. One, right, energy prices have been lower now for a kind of sustained period of time, so there's some disinflationary potential there. Also, the ISM service number last week came in below fifty, and so there's some
signs of slowing in the service economy. So how do you think about some of those potential offsets and do you think they're enough to maybe stunt the impact of what you're expecting from a tariff perspective.
No, you're right, from a growth perspective, lower energy prices is certainly helpful. But coll PCE and co CPI of course excludes food and energy. So from the fests perspective, they would likely focus on that there is general upweight pressure in the broader measures of inflation excluding food and energy and to your services. It's right, and if I B has been showing some upside pressure also on the
expectations to inflation. There's also some measures of course of inflation expectations, both for the University of Michigan and the Conference Board that is also telling you that infaced expectations are way too high red to where the FED would
like them to be. So you're right, there are some nuances in terms of yes, that different things going on in some of them, especially survey based data of what's going on with inflation, especially when it comes to household expectations being very very high.
So combined, I would.
Still come to the conclusion that I worry more about the upside risk. This is also what the FED has in their own forecast, That's what the consensus is forecasting. That's also what we're forecasting. So for what is word, I still think that the overall risks. Yes, surveys may show that ism was a little bit weaker when it came to prices paid, but the bottom line is that the tailwinds coming from tariffs coming from a lower dollar,
coming from restrictions and immigration are just pretty strong. And that's combined with at the same time a slowdown in growth, partly because of teriffs of course also weighing on sales for companies, but also slow down in growth because of the.
New factor that's emerging.
Nearly consumers are beginning to take a hit now because student loan payments are restarting, and people are beginning to take a hit on their credit scores if they don't pay their student loans.
So the New York Fad is estimating that's.
A much as six seven eight million households that now are at risk of no longer being able to get credit. So that's a hitlint to growth, while we at the same time have some upward push on inflation. So that's taflation in a nutshell. As the baseline scenario that we view as the most likely case at the moment.
A Tellston that final point is so important. Our consumers in a position to eat tap and it's the labor market tight enough for them to demand the higher way just to fund it. What's your assessment of that situation now?
So one way to assess that is once again to go to you a Bloomberg sho need to look at the red Book same store retail sales that went up a lot just immediately during the Liberation Day weeks when we had, of course a lot of people that were front loading their purchases. But in the last several weeks, the same store retail sales date up on Redbook has started a show and seeping lower. We're now below five percent in numbers growth for same store retail sales.
We are watching that trend very very carefully.
And this is weekly data that comes out every Tuesday at nine am that will tell us something about is the consumer really in such great shape as the balance sheet would be saying, or are these headwinds, especially headwinds coming from terres headwinds coming across the border, especially from the student owned problems that are beginning to emerge, And they only really.
Started emerging here in ME.
And we are worried that the US consumer could begin to slow down, and we're beginning to see some signs of that trend downwards in the red Book same store retail sales data.
What you're describing is potentially a nightmare for the Federal Reserve. You talked about the dynamics planing out in Europe. The ECP has been reducing interest rates now for a number of months, Tolson, where do you think it leaves the federal reserve at a time when I hear a lot of people saying they should just sit this out, sit this out for the summer, and maybe sit this out for the rest of the year.
That's extremely important because this issue is, of course exactly that. If you have higher infletion, the FITCH would be hiking. If you have lower growth, the FITCH would be cutting. So which one is it? Does the fit like apple's like oranges? How much weight do they put on inflation growing up? How much weight do they put on growth slowing down? And the dual mandate is torn in two completely opposite directions. That's why the easy answers to that for their I from SEAM members is to say we're
not doing anything but executory. Your point, Jonathan, what if the inflation data does start to move up much more? Or on the other hand, what if growth starts slowing down more. It's a really difficult spot for the vetter to be in because monetary policy works with a lack If I'm sea members will say that's as much as
well to eighteen months. So it's almost impossible for them to catch this falling knife because we just don't know at this stage whether the growth slow down will dominate or whether the rise inflation will be dominating it.
Tolston provocative stuff. Appreciate the catch up. Tolston slocktair of Apollo. If we can build on the conversation with a perfect guest, Bob Diamond, the founding partner of Atlas Merchant Capital and the former Barclay's CEO. Come on, I got to see you, Marrin Jonathan. I'm good, it's going to see you, sir. Let's just recap things. Where are we right now, big sety thousand foot view of the bank in sector in America? How are thing's shapen up?
You know?
I think I think just kind of the back and forth and on the one hand and on the other hand from Herman suggests pretty much my view, which is kind of a balance, you know. I think we'll see a turnaround in deal making in advisory in the second half of the year that was a bit slower than people expected in the first half. I don't think Wall Street will repeat the kind of trading performance they had, which was it was kind of like Christmas in the
first quarter for trading desks with all the volatility. But I think, you know, I think it's it's a good environment, so no big warning signs. I think the as you said, the report from City that at long lost provisions are a bit higher is not surprising. I would be very surprised if they're more than a bit higher.
An okay environment for the big banks or for the smaller banks as well.
Well, it's a great environment and for the smaller banks. And as you know, we're very focused on regional and community banks. We've done our first clothes in an investment strategy for that sector. We think that the four and a half thousand regional and community banks one, they're incredibly important to the economy. They do over half of the lending to small businesses and family owned businesses. But four
and a half thousands probably the wrong number. In many of the smaller, more private community banks that are so important to their communities are frankly just too small to succeed with higher technology costs, higher regulatory costs, higher compliance costs. And Jonathan, what we're seeing is with a focus of our banking expertise, our integration expertise. The CEOs of these
banks want to take part in consolidation. The opportunity to increase ROE through cost synergies, particularly on in state transaction, is terrific. So I think in addition to that, as you look at the go forward business opportunity, we have higher rates, they're probably trending somewhat lower but not too aggressively, and very high demand for credit. So the environment could not be better for a strong regional bank today.
We often hear that in tariffs and rates act as overhangs on potential m and A and consolidation. But stepping back, there's also a tremendous amount of disruption going on at an industry level. AI is disrupting many industries. You still have this transition in terms of office in real estate post COVID, you have the energy transition, and we'll see what happens with reshoring.
So would you argue that.
Disruption in above itself is going to lead to more industry consolidation and M and A across various sectors.
Yeah, I don't think that's a bad hypothesis, particularly with AI. I think looking at financial services again, which is kind of our expertise and our focus. It's nothing but positive in terms of in the first stage, greater efficiency and even where there's been that disruption in the US kind
of the US economy around uncertainty and tariffs. We have a couple of broker dealers that were invested in overseas Panmore Gordon in the UK and Kepler Chevro and Peraspace, but really focused on Europe for equity sales, trading and research. They both had record earnings in the first quarter for flows from US investors into the UK equity market and into the European equity market. It's incredible to me every time we see these disruptions, it's like the markets are
reacting almost before we're ready to do the analysis. So those are first quarter numbers at Paranmore Gordon and Kepler Chevro and their records for the firms in terms of flows from US investors into the UK and into Europe. So it's amazing how agile the investors are.
I was going to follow up and ask you about that because I know you have a very global experience throughout your banking career, and it's also just stunning to think about how soon the January American exceptionalism thesis turned into sell America after Liberation Day. Do you see those trends in terms of flows and sentiment moving away from US markets continuing or is it more of a kind of a near term LIP.
I think there are reasons to continue.
So one of the reasons is it's been a big, big divergence almost since two thousand and eight in the Great Financial Crisis, certainly in banks, but really in equities in general. The outperformance of US equity markets has been very, very clear relative to the UK in Europe, so you
had a bounce coming. And I think one of the catalysts for that is this administration's kind of gave a boot in the butt for the European to say, we really have to focus on spending, we really have to focus on private sector, we really have to focus on the economy growing. And I think the attitude change across Europe and the attitude change in the UK toward private sector's success business profitability has been positive for them. So I think the US is still like the leading economy.
It's so you know, the financial services industry is so deep, it's just such an impressive machine It's not a negative on the US necessarily. I think once we work through the uncertainty around tariffs, we'll see the strength. But a bounce in Europe and a bounce in the UK was coming.
Do you still see the policy makes from this White House's pro risk, pro growth?
I think I think, to me, Jonathan, the single thing that investors are looking for right now, well is that one thing. But if I if I picked one out at certainty and I think, you know, calming down the situation with US and China would be a very big part of that. So I think think the announcement today, if if we move forward with solving some of those situations.
I mean, keep in mind, if you go back like ten decades then you know, tariffs were like two and a half percent on average, they got up to twenty five or thirty percent with all of the all of the noise. If they settle around five or six percent, you know, I think we have you know, we have confidence again, and we have certainty again. I think we'll
bring we'll have deal making comeback. So I think this is a big moment, and I think what's been recognized is that China actually has some pretty strong.
Cards rare earths is one of them.
But you know, as you look at the latest numbers, China still had a increase in exports. Exports to the US were down thirty percent, but exports to the rest of the world were up eleven percent, So overall their exports.
Were up more than twenty percent.
Of the Internet right, so less than ten percent of their exports are to the US down.
This is something you talked about. The last few months have revealed the leverage that the Chinese have this time around, maybe in a way that wasn't really enforced several years ago in the president's first term.
Yeah.
Absolutely, and I think there might be some positives that redirect and re order some critical security based industries, technology, pharma, medical supplies, etc. But I think the theme that I'm just hearing from Bob is one we just talked about with Ed earlier, which is.
This unintended consequences.
We've given a kick to Europe to start spending and maybe in many ways created better growth opportunities for them that they wouldn't have taken on earlier, much like the deepseak analog.
Bop, does that mean that you're more focused on the US as everyone starts to look, how swear, But maybe the better opportunities here now.
Relative to the last three or four years.
I think the opportunities in the UK and Europe are there. But Jonathan, one of the things we felt in Atlas Merchant Capital was one of our real competitive advantages in financial services is we are focused on the UK and Europe in the USA US. Prior to COVID, we had done just as many investments in the UK and Europe as we've done in the US since COVID has been US US US, because that's where the opportunities are.
So I would say it differently.
I hope we continue to see opportunities here and US regional and community banks writ large, that's a phenomenal opportunity in the US.
But if you give us more opportunities.
For growth in the UK and Europe than Atlas Merchant Capital is going to be very, very busy, And then that's the direction that looks like we're going on.
Just give us the number quickly again, what are we at now regional banks in this country? Four four and a half.
Four and a half thousand, and it's probably the wrong number.
And you've got just come a down to wall I.
Think three years from today market down will be at one to two thousand.
It's a punchy go, that's for sure. You could be a big part of it. So you've boways got to see it.
Good to see it.
Thanks for and I appreciate your time. Pup time in there of Atlans merchis merchant capital. It's with me around the table. Greg Peters a PHM. Seth competer of Morkan Stanley Seth. Just your first take off the back of that data not in line with what you were expecting.
Now, that's exactly right. We were expecting roughly with consensustead of be up, you know, two or three tenths on core. I think one thing that's important to remember though, is there are lots of moving parts here. We had already seen lots of swings and things like used cars before. We are coming into this year on a deflationary trend or disinflationary trend, and so you know, I think we got to just take this as one month's worth of noise.
The other thing though, is it's still early game. So when we look at what happened before with tariffs, it did take two or three months before you saw any sign of the tariffs and the inflation data, and so I think this is still the beginning of the game, not the end.
Of timing and sequencing is really important. I know you've done a research because I've read it. The data this morning you called it noise and not signal. What was the experience of the tariffs in the first term under this president and the timing of the sequencing of things, the hits inflation then the hits of growth, and why should we think it's going to be the same this time around.
Yeah, I mean, I think that's what that was. What's really tricky is it does seem like the inflation comes from the tariffs after two or three months, the hit to growth comes after two or three quarters, and so that mismatch in timing I think makes it hard for markets, but very hard in particular for the FED. I think in twenty eighteen, one of the big changes then versus
now is that it was mostly focused on China. If you look hard in the core consumer goods data, you can see the effect of inflation, but it was transitory. Then we have every reason to suspect it'll be temporary
this time. But the numbers are bigger now. All around the world tariffs, bigger tariffs on China, Modlo, whatever sort of deal comes out from London, and so we think there's a big difference there also mudding the waters though we know how much front running there was before the tariffs coming in, So is that going to change a little bit the pricing dynamic easily could do?
Greg, would you fight any excitement this morning around this pro And.
I would agree with Seth.
I mean, it's way too early to make any kind of determination around this particular number. You know, the one question I have for Seth though, is, you know, how do you think about two components, a housing component, which is key because that also feeds into growth, and then the service sector, which is basically a measure of wages and labor health. So, you know a lot of investors are excited around services disinflating, but that's actually kind of
very much a double headed sword. How do you kind of think about that?
Completely agree, it's a double edged sword, and I think it's complicated. I think from the housing it's a national phenomenon and it really will reflect the tightness in the labor market there. We've been expecting that to continue to drift down close to pre COVID rates, you know, month on month, maybe not going below it, but getting close to where it was before. For the rest of services, though, I think we have a counter vailing force that needs to be more on people's radars when it comes to
policy effect on the economy, on markets. Everyone's been focused on tariff's, tariffs, tariffs, tariffs, tariffs. Don't forget we've got immigration restriction. Immigration restriction matters a lot. We think prior to COVID, the run rate sort of break even rate for non farm perils was probably one hundred and ten hundred and twenty k. Twenty twenty four, twenty twenty three, that run rate went up to two hundred and forty two hundred and fifty k. It's going to drop to
something closer to seventy five. That's a meaningful restriction and a growth rate of the labor supply. And people here should remember what it was like coming out of COVID when it was hard to find workers. You saw hotel buildings, for example, where like the top ten floors, for example,
were just left vacant because they didn't have staff. I think those sorts of staffing shortages are very plausible and that could be putting upward pressure over the second half of the year for the services outside of housing.
Not much pressure right now if you are just joining us. A downside surprise on headline and core CPI month over month, it came and at zero point one percent the meat and estimate, our serve at zero point two on call taking out food, taking out energy. It came and at zero point one against the meat and estimate zero point three. The case standing bhyd Mike, I want to come back to you. You've been digging through the details. What's the
sourceit this downside surprise. Where's the surprise coming from?
Well?
Overall, John, it looks like goods prices did not rise. They were flat during the month, which is not what was expected. Services prices were down. Gasoline prices fell two point seven percent, so that had a big weight. The thing that did prop up inflation was as you've guys been talking about housing, but a couple of other areas that did surprise. We saw a slight rise in home furnishings about a two tenths of eight percent, but apparel is down by four tenths That was expected to rise.
And here's the real surprise in these numbers. Used cars and new cars both fell in price by half a percentage point. The expectation was tariffs would drive those higher. Airfares were down, as people kind of expected given the travel fall off that we've seen, down two point seven percent. So there are some surprises some non surprises in here.
Oh.
I was going to mention John, you were talking before the number came out about the cost of Hulu and all those other subscription services. They were up six tens of percent, one of the larger rises in the CPI this time. I think maybe what we're seeing is companies selling out of the inventories that they pulled in. That could be one of the explanations for not seeing kind of the tariff effect that we thought of.
Ami McKay, Thank you, sir. We're all faiting that price pressure on the hoarly side of things, that's for sure. I'll talk about that another time. Note down Seth. What did you make of that explanation?
Yeah, I mean, I think what Mike said was there are a lot of different components that are going in lots of different directions, and I think that's exactly where we've been for the past call a year, where the underlying trend before the tariffs hit was a downward trend, but boy was it not. Uniform is all over the place. I think the car prices point is a really important one.
If you look at the month on month changes of both new autos and used autos over the past call it twelve months, you'll see some big swings in both directions, and so again the noise versus signal. The noise is very high right now.
See some swings right now in the equity market and in bonds to equity futures ness session highs going into the up and bow about fifty minutes away. The equity market is positive by four tenths of one percent. Just move to the bond market. Though, this interesting move here compared the two years to what their thirty years doing this morning, people like Greg would call this a bull steepner running at the front end of the curve. You're dropped by six basis points and a thirty year basically
doing nothing. What does that speak to?
This speaks to everything we were talking about, which is, you know, all the concerns manifest in the thirty year right So the front end is driven by fed polsing and the back end is driven by a lot of other factors, and there is this pesky auction later this week, and so I don't really see a skill for that to rally into that auction. It normally cheapened up beforehand, so I expected to continue to cheapen up beforehand.
A thirty year supply coming tomorrow afternoon, ten year maturity isshumin debt the treasury a little bit later on the south of need too, so yield to a lower at the front end of the curve. We're down six basis points on twos. That unlocks some dollar weakness. You wrote dollar right now one fourteen seventy five. Joining us now to extend the conversation on places, say it's David Kelly
of JP Morgan Asset Management. David, it just went your initial reaction to the DAYA we got about ten minutes ago. Was that a surprise to you, sir?
And not too much of a surprise. As we were going into this, into this print, we were looking at a lot of the different industries and there's a sogginess in the economy which is really preventing prices from going up.
I mean, one of the things that I was struck by was that both airline fares and hotel lodging were down, and that really jives at the fact that, you know, people flying and people staying at hotels in terms of occupants rates have both been very solidly down for weeks, if not months here, and then at the retail level, I think, you know, I think it's just like businesses
and consumers are eyeing each other nervously. Consumers, you know, feel badly about the economy, not sure, and retail is just out of the nerve to raise the prices they absolutely have to, but I think the tariffs will mean they absolutely have to in the next few months because a lot of these retailers work off tight margins. So I think it's I think we are going to have a further delayed to the delayed reaction to these tariffs.
But if the current level of tariffs stick, we do still expect this inflation pressure to rise over the months ahead, and I think by the end of the year we're talking about a CPI about three and a half percent a year over year, consumption of later north of three percent a year over year, even though it's taking some time for this to materialize.
David, here's a counter point. It comes from no data of Runmack this morning, who said, if tariff's rates the up and core good prices aren't up by as much as the consensus thought, it implies more margin squeeze of retailers and less price pass through. Why isn't that just going to be the sustainable story for the next several months. Why does it have to get worse.
Because the retailers won't be able to do it. I mean, these margins are tight, and what they're doing is, you know, further existing margin, existing inventory. They paid a person a certain price for it, and they're willing to you know, even though inventories are going down, they're willing to accept current margins. But as they have to pay for the new inventory and mark up on that new inventory, I
expect that we will see those higher prices. So it's because margins are tightened the retail businesses, and I think it's just it's going to be very very hard for retailers and auto dealers and so forth to actually maintain low prices at the prices of the stuff that they're buying goes.
Up, David, if they're not in a position to wait it. A consumer is in a position to pay the higher prices. Do you see a labor market that's tight enough to demand higher wages to fund that move.
Well, we are seeing a site tightening in the labor market because you know, as your previous guests, we're talking about that this I think this immigration suite is beginning to hit and I think it's very very much below the radar because a lot of these people don't really admit to being working at all. But there's a shortage of labor which is getting worse, and I do think that's going to put a floor under wages. And now for consumers overall, you know, this is a tax on
lower middle income consumers. I mean that's what tariffs are. There are tax and imports of goods, and that hits low middle incum consumers. So it depends on the tax
bill a bit. But if, assuming the effects of the tax bill don't kick in ont later, then I think the squeeze is going to get worse over over the course of the year and you're going to see weak consumer demand and so you're gonna have a combination of an economy which seems to be pretty sluggish, say the third quarter, but also prices which are registering pretty high year of year increases.
Devid, I've got to ask you where on earth does that leaf chairman pal and this fighter reserve.
I think I think they have to wait and see what happens with this this tax bill. You've got tariff inflation that's going to be followed by stimulus inflation unless they water down this this tax bill. And I think he's I think he's right to wait and see him. I also think that given how high the stock market is, you know, he doesn't want to be responsible for causing a further party in the equity market and pushing acid
prices even higher. So I think the FED is going to weigh and wait and wait, although they know what the tiff story is and what the tax story is. At that point they can assess the economy. But until that point, they've really got no reason to ease.
David Kelly if JP Morgan Asset Management, David, thank you. Seth. You were following that conversation. Do you share that opinion that Fed's going to sit this out?
I do think so.
I think right now there's no urgency for them to move. I mean, you saw the year on year number, even with this downside surprise, the year on year number was two eight. I haven't seen what my team has sort of done for the translation to core PCE, but you're still probably talking about something like two and a half percent.
And so, even though that's well below the peaks we saw coming out of COVID, two and a half percent still a half a percentage point higher inflation than the Fed's target, and to date we haven't seen any deterioration in the labor market. So I think it's a very difficult proposition to argue the FED needs to cut in June. Why not take the optionality, sit and wait. They can communicate their inclination to have the next move be a
cut through their dot plot at the upcoming meeting. That seems fine, but I don't think that any urgency on their part to move if you've got.
A clean rate on their reaction function the amount of move, but you have a decent understanding of how they would move based on incoming information, So I think so.
I think the simplest version of this, and this isn't going to be, you know, groundbreaking, is they've got two mandates. They have to worry about growth and employment. On the one hand, they have to worry about inflation on the other at any point in time based on the current side of the data, and then your best guess as to where things are going, which one's the bigger problem, and react to that one. And so right now, the bigger problem is very clearly inflation. It's come down, but
it's still above target. The labor market to date is fine. Where things going well, we start to make forecasts, we think inflation's going to go up from here. They probably think inflation's going to go up from here, but we don't know that yet. But until you get that confirmation,
there's no reason for them to move. If we're right and inflation does go up, like I think is the consensus, before the labor market starts to slow, before spending the economy starts to slow, well, that just reinforces the idea that in fl is the bigger problem of their two mandates.
And so we've been saying for a while, don't count on a rate cut at all this year, because if inflation keeps drifting up before the economy cracks, makes it easy for them to just sit on their hands at the current level of policy rates.
Correct patter is sitting on your hands through the summery is one thing. Through the air is another. You've expected them to sit on the hand street twenty five.
You know, it's data driven, of course, that's my out. But we've been kind of penciling, penciling into cuts just to get to kind of the top end of neutral. But it's a complicating factor. I think it's how you position the inflation. Clearly they're going to be hesitant to use the word transitory, but there is this belief that it's a one time shock and you have to look through it.
But you know, my.
Read is that they will prioritize growth. You know, if you just kind of think about it, you know, in a matrix, if growth moves down hard, I think we're sure inflation is following, all right, So I think they're worrying about and prioritizing growth over inflation. But they can't tell you that because they need to be credible on the inflation. So you have the kind of actions, yeah, look through, you know, and kind of read in between, which is difficult to do.
Is that another way saying Governor Willa has a luxury that cham and Pound doesn't have.
Yes, you know, but but you know, but I think it's right. And you know there's some politics there too, right, so it's but but you know, our belief is inflation rolls over.
I'm sorry, growth rolls over.
I think they'll respond to that, even though inflation remains, you know, well above target.
Greg, this was smart, It's going to say, as always, greigt pity staff. Page'm alongside set company of Morgan Stanley Set.
Thank you, sir.
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