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This is the Bloomberg Surveillance Podcast. I'm Jonathan Ferrow, along with Lisa Bromwitz and Amerie Hordern. Join us each day for insight from the best in markets, economics, and geopolitics from our global headquarters in New York City. We are live on Bloomberg Television weekday mornings from six to nine am Eastern. Subscribe to the podcast on Apple, Spotify or anywhere else you listen, and as always on the Bloomberg Terminal and the Bloomberg Business app.
The President saying he has preferred fed Share candidate, but is in no hurry to make an announcement. Mark Banna, Bank of America joins us now for more. Mark, I am curious from your vantage point and good morning, how relevant you find all these comments job.
Owning the Fedger Reserve.
What's your takeaway when you hear President Trump continue to talk and really bash fetcher?
Jerome Powell, good morning, Happy New Year.
I hope you had a nice holiday with you your family.
So our take is that we've heard this so many times before, and what we're really interested in is who is the individual going to be? What is their preference on policy broadly, and then will there be any further turnover or change within the Federal Reserve.
It is a committee.
We do know that it takes a number of individuals to move the needle on FED policy and impact interest rates, and we're really trying to figure out who that's going to be, what their preferences are, and how does the committee composition change. So we, just like the rest of the market, are waiting for guidance on this. So we do think it'll come relatively soon. As you know, at the end of January, that's when Stephen Moran's term ends.
He can stay on, but we do expect that as his.
Term comes to a close, we will get the nomination for the next FED chair. If it is an outsider, a e not Bowman or Waller, then they're going to likely want to be confirmed by the end of January, and then they will join the committee serving in a bit of a shadow chair capacity, and we're going to learn a little bit more about what their preferences are on rates and what that means for the general outlook for policy in the near future.
Mar good morning, it's this guy. Is it important if Powell when he steps down, leaves entirely entirely or continues to retain a seat. Is that going to be important and how pivotal could it be?
Yeah, it doesn't matter a lot because it influences that composition of the committee. As you know, it takes seven voters for any action at the FED. And if Powell chooses to stay, which would be historically unprecedented, then it will mean that there's probably less willingness to cut rates aggressively. If he leaves, it'll give the Trump administration one more seat in which they can potentially remake that committee and
potentially then advocate for lower rates. History would suggest that Powell will step down, but this is indeed his decision, and if he goes, it's just going to mean one more vote for potentially lower rates and reference to likely overweight the unemployment side of the Fed's mandate versus the inflation side of the feds mandate.
And look, when we think about the outlook.
For interest rates over the course of twenty twenty six, we do think that the FED composition is extremely important, and that's one of the reasons that we do believe that the distribution of risk to the rate outlook is kewed to the downside, we do believe it means likely lower rates. It's deeper curve, lower real rates, higher inflation, lower volatility, which, by the way, I do think is quite a story for the end of twenty twenty five.
That doesn't get a ton of airplay, but that low ball environment is so important for US rates, for US fixed income more broadly, for elements of the dollar, elements of the commodities trade and the goal trade that you were talking about before, and that FED composition does very much influence the outlook for rates and the outlet for VALL and we do think that that's going to be a very very relevant theme as we start twenty twenty six.
Mark, I was thinking about this as well this morning. The move index that you guys create been tracking lower throughout the back half of the year. What I don't get is if I have a more volatile FED, if I have a more volatile FMC, why doesn't that translate into a more volatile market.
Can you explain that?
Yeah, So, the way that we think about it is that there may be disagreement within the FED, but as you get the shift in composition at the FED, what it does is it just narrows the range of potential rate outcomes, and as you increasingly staff the FED with individuals that are going to be advocating for at worst rates on hold or potentially lower rates, what it does is that just further trims the potential that rates will
be moving higher. And as you narrow the range of outcomes, that does mean that VAUL should be moving lower and lower. Rate VAULT does touch a wide set of financial markets, and we do think that that's going to be a key and persistent theme over the first half of twenty twenty six. As you get later into twenty twenty six, the range of outcomes widens, there's midterms to consider and
just natural uncertainty that that rises with time. But in the first half of twenty twenty six, we do things that VUL will remain low, and that's going to keep financial conditions quite easy, and that's going to be generally supportive for the growth backdrop. As long as you have FED that's not hiking, then you've got really only, you know, either.
Stable rates or lower rates to seriously consider.
I can think of all the metals traders out there listening to this conversation and saying, but gold it's telling us something.
What is it telling us?
The idea that copper has been on a tear, that silver has been on a tear, that you have seen a depreciation of the dollar, and frankly and underperformance of US assets in relation to some of these precious metals.
Do you think that this is telling you of some kind of inflationary impulse that will come out in what we're seeing with respect to steeper yield curves and even if it's not volatility, that that will grind wider throughout the year and potentially put a cap on some of that risk appetite.
Well, we do.
I mean, look, we think it's going to be a dynamic that is characterized by very strong growth, by inflation, albeit sticky that generally gets overlooked in favor of driving a continued strong labor market and keeps it all out. All of those things will be very, very supportive of growth, and I do think that metals are very consistent with that right now. Doctor Copper, as you mentioned, certainly is telling me that growth is going to be very strong
globally over the course of twenty twenty six. What we see in gold and silver, there's no doubt some technicals that are at play there that drove the very very sharp spike in silver and then slight rebound or slight decline that we've seen over the last few days.
But I do think that there is a bit of a debasement concern there.
I e.
Central banks, especially the FED, that may be a little bit more dismissive of inflation than they've traditionally been, and that should mean weaker dollar, should mean lower rates, and that again should be tailwinds broadly for financial conditions.
All of this points to a better growth backdrop.
All of this points to a very supportive backdrop for activity and continued easing in financial conditions of the course of twenty twenty six. We think the biggest risk do all of that is inflation. The biggest risk is that the FED has to consider raising rates at some point over the course of next year. We put very low
probability on that right now. The market does as well it seems, but that would be the biggest shift that could potentially throw a wrench into the low ball and easy financial conditions and high overall base metal price conditions that we are currently seeing today.
So next year we're going to see the one big beautiful bill. In some of the tax cuts that people are already expecting, we could potentially see two thousand dollars checks sent out.
To different individuals.
There is a concern about budget deficits, especially if AIPA is overturned.
What happened to bond vigilantes? Are they of sleep? Do they not exist?
Is that going to be a story that's going to come back in twenty twenty six?
It could right now. You're right, Lisa, that the market is very unconcerned with that. If you look at asset swap spreads in addition to VALL, they tell you that
the bond vinchil Anti concerns are very very low. We think that they remain at bay and a big part of that is due to changes that we are seeing with US Treasury issuance changes very technically that the FED is pursuing in terms of these reserve management purchases and the addition of liquidity that we're seeing to really better anchor repo rates in the Fed's target range, and potentially changes that are happening on the regulatory front for banks
and as well as dealers. There's also important market structure changes, very technical in nature that I won't go into in great depth, but you're going to get cross margining benefits, you're going to get something called collateral and loo. All of these things we do think will be supportive of increasing dealer intermediation capacity. And what that will mean is that you're just going to have a better environment for risk taking and fixed income, specially in the treasury market.
And that should mean that you don't get these type of bond vigilanity concerns in a big way.
It helps a lot.
The Treasury is really only increasing issuance at the very front end of the curve where duration risk is very, very minimal, and what that should mean is that that will limit those concerns of bard and vigilantes from really taking off despite all of the headwinds that you just mentioned.
Well, can I come that question from a different angle. I'm talking a little bit about market structure. There is an increasing more we're seeing the treasury market being held increasingly by private foreign holders, right and the data you look at, the ticket data that supports that when you get shifts in sentiment, does that mean that you're going to see those shifts in sentiment being amplified because traditional reserve managers although kind of more stable position, private owners don't,
and therefore are likely to change opinions and more dramatically once once the ground.
Shifts under them.
If we do see some sort of a change in twenty twenty six, if inflation is a problem, does that mean the magnitude of that shift is going to be even greater?
It certainly could.
Now when we think about ownership of treasuries, you rightly highlight that private foreign demand has been remarkably resilient despite all of the concerns that were evidenced over the course of twenty twenty five. But when we think about for private foreign demand, I really think of it coming through two different ways, One through let's say the more traditional asset manager or real money investor, and then the second through a highly levered let's say relative value hedge fund
type trade. In the real money sector. We think that that money should be pretty stable, that should be pretty sticky, And that's largely because when we talk to global investors, what they frequently reiterate is just that there's not a lot of great alternatives in the global fixed income markets away from the US dollar fixed income and if you want relatively risk free assets, like you get in the
treasury market. The size of the market, the depth of the market is really unparalleled, and so many investors feel like, well, they might not want to be in dollars, but they don't have many other good alternatives, so they have to remain there.
Now, where we do get a little.
Bit more concern is when we think about the relative value and highly levered let's say hedge fund positions. Those investors are worldwide, but there's a high concentration of those investors, especially in the UK. And what we do worry about there is anything that could potentially trigger elevated volatility and subsequent deleveraging That could come from the repo market, it could come from a very volatile macro environment, and we
do worry about the concentration of ownership. There is potentially exacerbating volatility if it were to rise meaningfully. Now we don't think that'll be the case in the first half of twenty twenty six. We do think that low fall inflation, it's moving generally lower, a FED that's at worst on hold, if not cutting, will characterize the market in the first
half of twenty twenty six. But that concentration is in data risk that these market structure and regulatory changes should help limit that risk in the near term.
Stay with US multile impag Savannah's counting up off.
To this.
Investors looking ahead to fresh data in the new year to get a clear read on the US economy, Constance Hunter of Economist Intelligence writing, the US will face a bumpy road. If twenty twenty six were a fairy tale, it would be a mashup of chicken little and ugly duckling to talk about this story to Constance joins us, now, do we have a sense of how clear the data
has been so far? In other words, have we gotten any tell from the data in November and December that has been muddied by the government shutdown.
We've gotten very little data that's showed the impact of the government shutdown. The first piece of data would be the Job's data that we received earlier this month, and of course that shows that the number of people who took the early retirement packages that came into effect in October. But of course we know that the October collection for both jobs and NCPI had flaws, so there's not a lot there, And honestly, I don't think that matters that much.
What matters is how the interplay of the risks and the tailwinds are going to interplay in twenty twenty six. So of course we have tailwinds in the fact that we have really strong consumption in the US. The Q
three GDP report was solid. If you had a smooth road ahead of you, that would absolutely be the ugly duckling right where it turns into a swan, and everybody thinks it's beautiful, But of course there are potholes in the road, and that acorn that falls on Chicken Little's head may in fact mean that there are more acorns than that. The sky may fall right, So we have the whole situation with trade, so not just that the IEPA tariffs may be overturned, but the US MCA is
up for renegotiation. And remember these agreements that have been made are not trade deals. It takes decades to negotiate trade deals, and so there's still a great deal of
uncertainty there. And then, of course, as we've been talking about all morning, is the geopolitical uncertainty, whether we're talking about the Middle East, whether we're talking about China Taiwan, which is now of course saber rattling to send a message to Japan, whether we talk about China making breakthroughs in the Arctic, whether we're talking about strikes against Venezuela.
There's a lot of political.
Uncertainty on the horizon as well.
So con says this to me.
There is the unknown unknown, right, which is the geopolitics, and then there's a known unknown, which is whether we see any kind of resurgence in the labor market or whether we see a resurgence in inflation.
Which do you think is the bigger risk some sort of.
Resurgence in inflation or a real substantial deterioration in the backdrop for the jobs market.
So you know, I don't know that they're mutually exclusive.
And you know, you had the Stephen Marin interview playing earlier and he talked about it depends if you have a surgeon demand, but you also have a surgeon, and supply we don't think there's going to necessarily be a surgeon to apply. One of the really interesting things about the Q three GDP report was all of the corporate profit information that was contained in there. So basically the measure that's that's sort of similar to retained earnings rose
thirty three percent. Quoter a q Q three over Q three, so year over year in the third quarter, firms retained a huge amount of earnings, and we saw in the data that they didn't hire, They really slowed hiring. They absorbed some of the costs of the tariffs. They also front loaded those tariffs right by importing at the end
of last year and beginning of this year. And we really think that that that something has to give there, Right, So firms don't keep thirty three percent retain year over year retained earnings, they invest in capex, they pay them out in the form of dividends, or they hire more people.
We think some combination of those things will happen.
In conjunction with them passing on higher prices. In addition, we're going to get the tax refunds from the One Big Beautiful Bill Act. So the first quarter GDP data and all of the data leading up to that release of the first quarter GDP is going to look fairly strong after coming off a pretty weak Q four because of the government shutdown. Right, So it's going to be
a very confusing data landscape. And I think people have this idea that the tariffs are behind us, and that the the uncertainty from tariffs are behind us.
That is not our view.
We think that that uncertainty is going to prevail next year. And again, one of those signals from that high retained earnings shows that firms are paralyzed. They're uncertain what are what are they going to do with this profits? And I think that's the big The answer to that question is going to be the answer to the contour of the economy.
Okay, let's let's break that down a little bit.
Consons.
Can the FED continue to cut with inflation sounding as sticky as you make it sound.
Well, I suppose it could, depending upon the makeup of the FOMC. Is it likely to in the first half of the year. We don't think so. We think that there will continue to be descents and that the FED will will hold rate steady for the first half of the year.
On the other hand, if we see.
Deterioration as a result of higher tariffs, and if firms margins compress in the second half of the year, then we could very well see two rate cuts in the second half of the year, especially as the pass through from tariffs is likely to have dissipated by that time. But it's a big unknown when and how firms are going to pass on tear frates. We also don't know
if these tari frates are the permanent tariff rates. We know that the administration likes to move things around as a matter of strategy, right, so there's a lot of uncertainty in that realm.
Stay with us. Mulpleinberg Savanna's coming up off to this.
The stocks going nowhere as traders trim bets on megacap tech stocks heading into the end of twenty twenty five. Data Doria Investment joins us now Data. You did some work on what a Santa rally actually is, looking at how often you usually see gains.
Why is it not working this time around?
Yeah, unfortunately it's not.
I mean, of course, we have nothing to complain about, right that this has been another double digit year, and you know, the economy has remained very strong in spite of kind of taking some crazy hits. So when we look back across the course of the air may not hit that twenty percent. It's not looking good at this stage of the game.
But it's still been.
A phenomenal year in markets, and I think, you know, it might be too much to expect at this point, you know, and stocks don't really have a catalyst, right there's you know, to your point on you know, kind of FED meeting minutes coming out later this afternoon. We'll get some interesting content there, but you know, and jobs
be who are coming out. But I mean, where things stand today, there's not a huge amount that's going to happen in the course of this week that's going to kind of drive stocks forward.
I think we.
Probably have to be happy with the phenomenal performance we already received this year.
That probably is too much to ask for people waiting for extra gains to put into their stocking at year end. There is this question though about whether we are seeing a true rotation, and that's what you're seeing this morning on the margins. I mean, it is tepid, Let's be honest. It's not exactly an active trading session. But you are seeing the outperformance come from the rustle two thousand and
you have seen that over the past three weeks. Is that something you can kind of sink your teeth into and say it has lasting power?
We'll see.
We certainly have economic data point that suggests that the FED saying that there's one R eight cut coming next year is low. Right, we know FED Fund's futures already thinks that you know, we're going to have more than that if employment keeps weakening, if inflation kind of stays somewhat cool, it's hard to imagine that the FED doesn't cut more.
And if the FED cuts more, that's great for small caps.
And so I think to a certain extent, some of that might be filtering into you know, the expectation set for that part of the economy. Look, I'm a strong believer in having that kind of diversification in the portfolio
to begin with. I mean, obviously large caps have outpaced small caps this year, but I think if you take a step back and look from just a broad diversification theme, we've had a phenomenal year for diversification, right, International developed, emerging market stocks thirty plus returns, so as good as it's been in the US market. If you had a diversify outlook in your portfolio, probably did better.
And small caps are around fifteen percent.
This is not a bad outcome, right for spreading your dollars, spreading the risk a little bit, particularly when we know the large cap index is so concentrated, it's so heavily dependent and top heavy on you know, certain stocks. So whether we're rotating into small caps or you know, we're seeing some of the effective interest rate chatter, I think it's a great thing to have that kind of diversification in your portfolio.
Dana. Let's dig into that a little bit more. Does the dollar continue to weaken in twenty twenty six? You just talked about the fact that maybe the Fed continues to cut That would imply maybe it does.
Yeah, for sure.
I mean, obviously the dollar has been kind of a release valve here over the course of the last year, and you know, notwithstanding that, you know, we don't know for sure what's happening with inflation, right we see a report that came out the data we know, because of the shutdown the data, there's questions around that. We want to get back to a place where we're collecting data very effectively efficiently as we used to and getting what we feel is a really solid look at what inflation
is doing. And that's obviously going to have a huge impact on where the dollar goes in twenty twenty six. For sure, you know, to the extent that we have interest rate cuts, you know, and by the way, this is just sort of to a large extent, getting the US on pace with the accommodative policy.
We've seen it in the rest of the globe, you know, throughout the year as well.
So this isn't you know, it's not to say that this is terministic, but we have zumer inflation goes and yes, interest rate cuts. Of course, if they're significantly more than expected, we'll have that impact.
Dana, you talk about the diversification trade in dollar terms. If I'm a dollar investor, I made thirty percent in the foot Set one hundred this year, twenty five percent in the cat care on the DAX has delivered nearly forty percent, the Spanish market is delivered nearly seventy percent. Are those kinds of numbers for US investors going to be available next year? How much emphasis do I need to put on the x US part of my portfolio?
I think, you know, the starting point from an academic perspective, right, if nothing else, first principles here, the starting point is what.
Is the global ratio? Right?
So MSCI AQUI all country World index. That gives me a great starting point for where I potentially want to have international stocks. Now, of course, you know, coming from a place where it's retail investors, it's advisors needing to keep clients discipline in their in their portfolios, which is sort of job number one.
You know, you have to measure that to a certain extent.
If US as gangbusters next year and they're measuring against the S and P five hundred index, it may be hard to keep them in place if international stocks don't deliver. So to a certain extent, there's a behavioral question here around how much can the can the person tolerate what are they looking to as the benchmark against that portfolio. If they're looking to a world index, I think the starting point being the world you know, that Aqui index
that includes emerging markets. But if they're not, if they're really tied to a US view, then maybe you have a little bit of a reduced you know, diversification heads there with international, but it's not as big in the portfolio as otherwise would be because the client just you know, if US does poorly, they're expecting their portfolio not to do as well.
But if US outperforms, it's tough for them to kind of stay put.
And you know, these are just kind of the behavioral considerations, and I'll again say, I think small caps have a place.
You know, both small caps and value stocks over time have outperformed.
We haven't seen a lot of that in the last several years, but I think some of these fundamentals, these first principle fundamentals are good not only for the potential to outperform over the long haul, but also for diversifying.
Again, what is a very.
Concentrated, top heavy you know index at this point, and most people have that in their portfolios, right unless you have a massive tracking error to the index. You have a ton of AI trade, right, a ton of big tech.
Well, the diversification trade is sort of taken on new meaning every single year is people try to cry the death of the sixty forty portfolio. I just wonder how much you have seen a true shift toward precious metals as a diversifier at a time where you've seen an incredible run so far this year.
Yeah, no doubt people sort of it was this Barbell kind of approach right to how people were putting portfolios together, and so you had I want to not miss out on the AI trade, but at the same time, the ballast of my portfolio becomes gold or even silver. Now at this point, I do think what's happening in the retail space as well is more diversification into these sort
of alternative asset classes. And a lot of that is happening because of product innovation in the space, so not only commodities, not only precious metals, but private equity, private credit in particular, and a lot of that's happening because there's vehicle availability that allows retail investors through things like interval funds.
These are point and clicks.
You can't get out of the fund as quickly as you can in generate a standard mutual fund, but you can get in and you can get access to a different return stream. We all know there's correlation there. It's the mark to market that kind of makes that correlation look lower than it is. But at the same time, you are getting access to companies that you're not going
to get in the public equity markets. And so what we're seeing in the retail space is massive interest and sort of to your point, diversifying that sixty forty and doing it with alternative assets now that they're more accessible to the average client.
Stay with us. Mult Blomberg Savanna's coming up off to.
This, So turning to the labor market picture, we want to speak with Nicole. The show of Zippercrudo, who wrote the low higher, low fire environment that defined much of twenty twenty five will persist into early twenty twenty six, but with a crucial difference. Employers are preparing for growth, not just survival.
Nicole joins us. Now, Nicole, thank you so much for being with us.
So let's get into that this idea that you could start to see a revival of a labor market that has been pretty mora bound for the second half of this year.
Whatever movements we see in twenty twenty six will be gradual. This is going to be slow and steady wins the race here instead of any sort of dramatic surge that could reignite inflation pressures. We will see hiring activities slowly start to pick up as clear kind of comes into view around policies like inflation and tariffs and how these factors are going to continue to impact employers into the new year.
Nicole, Who's going to be employed in this next phase. Is it going to be graduates? Is it going to be workers on AI data centers? Kind of where is the growth going to come from.
We're not seeing AI really reshaping where people are working. We're really seeing AI right now impacting the labor market in how certain roles are showing up. Workers who are able to utilize AI to increase productivity, to streamline their processes,
that's where we're going to see the most demand. And we're already seeing employers start to focus on upscilling their current workforce and employers who are able to remove unnecessary barriers to make it easier to integrate AI into their workflows and to train employees on how to use those tools properly. That's where we're going to see the biggest hiring bumps in the new year, Employers who are really going to be able to take advantage of those movements.
When we look at the new grads side of the house, we have seen, you know, obviously this is a really challenging labor market for new entrants. There is evidence from some surveys that we've done at zip Recruiter that employers are eager to hire more new grads into the year, more early early talent into their pipeline. That has kind of been missed over the last couple of years as focus has been shifted away from those higher tenured roles into earlier processes in the labor market.
What does this mean for wages?
Wages will likely start to stagnate across twenty twenty six. We've seen wages and inflation kind of converging together over.
The past several months.
As inflation continues to cool, wages will likely continue to come down.
From where they're at.
We saw around three point five percent annual growth in the last labor market readout, and well we see that continuing to slip a bit into twenty twenty six as well.
How much nicole Are we starting to see the employment picture move away from healthcare at some of these defensive areas that need bodies.
And go to more growth areas.
I'm thinking of services, I'm thinking of manufacturing.
Are you starting to see any of that shift whatsoever?
Quite the opposite.
We're still seeing healthcare being the dominant industry, as well as construction and other manual labor and skilled labor trades. Healthcare is going to continue to dominate throughout twenty twenty six and beyond, especially as US population continues to age.
There will be more demand for.
Healthcare services, especially support roles like nursing and home health aids. As we're seeing the population demographics kind of point towards a more bulk in that workforce for the future, so we will continue to see those manual and skilled trades kind of pushing up the labor market, and the cyclical cycles of industries where we look at manufacturing and retail, those are going to continue to stay stagnant while while employers are figuring out.
How tariffs are really going.
To be impacting their business lines moving forward.
Taking a step back, Nicole, when we take a look at twenty twenty five, a lot of people will say this was the year when suddenly the labor market was buffeted by a secular trend with artificial intelligence and companies not wanting to hire, particularly entry level jobs because in entry level positions because they could see potential efficiencies with technology.
Do you have any evidence to back that up. Do you think that that's going to become an even greater story in twenty twenty six.
I don't, and I don't know that there's a lot of evidence that really points to AI being the actual reason, whether that's in the headlines or not being the actual reason for a lot of the slowdowns and hiring we've seen.
It's a convenient excuse for low hiring.
Given a lot of the other factors going on in the macro environment that are impacting businesses right now. Now, when we look ahead to twenty twenty six, you know, there's a lot of room for AI to continue to reshape how workers show up to their jobs. But there's so much work that's not able to be taken over
by AI, especially not where we're at right now. So this is still going to be a gradual pickup to where we see AI really you know, hitting its stride and taking over a lot of the automated tasks in the workforce.
But that's not necessarily what we're seeing right.
Now, Nikole.
The FED has delivered a series of right cuts which were labeled insurance cuts. Insurance about relating to a labor market that was apparently slowing down. A well, those insurance cuts required and B if they were acquired, what effects have they had.
Unemployment has been rising throughout the second half of twenty twenty five, so the cuts intending to stabilize unemployment, you know, did come at the right time. But the goal of those is to stimulate more hiring. Activity, and we have not seen that happen yet. We haven't seen businesses be able to translate those lower rates into actual hires and more job growth that hopefully will come in the next
couple of months. This is also coming at a really challenging time, as you all know, with this big kind of data blackout and murkey data situation due to the
government shutdown. So as we look ahead to next week where we're anticipating a new Job Support and and JOLTS report to look at how openings and job growth look towards the end of this year, that will really help to clarify, you know, whether or not we're actually seeing those cuts to do what they're intended to do, or if we're still seeing a lot of stagnation as tariffs and sticky inflation continue to take hold of employers.
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Mm hmm.