Bloomberg Surveillance TV: April 6th, 2026

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This is the Bloomberg Surveillance Podcast. I'm Jonathan Ferrow, along with Lisa Bromwitz and Amrie Hordern. Join us each day for insight from the best in markets, economics, and geopolitics from our global headquarters in New York City. We are live on Bloomberg Television weekday mornings from six to nine am Eastern. Subscribe to the podcast on Apple, Spotify or anywhere else you listen, and as always on the Bloomberg Terminal and the Bloomberg Business app.

We begin this hour with stocks pushing hire as Marcus keep a cautious eye.

On the Middle East.

Cameron Dawson of New Edge Wealth writing, we see potential for a continued tactical bounce, but we do not see markets is out of the woods for volatility. Cameron joins us. Now, Cameron, thank you so much for being with us. I want to just start with the idea of what dip is biable? Are we looking at something that actually cheap in stocks off to just hold your nose and buy.

Yeah.

We got to the point where markets traded down to nineteen times forward earnings on the S and P five hundred. That's not historically cheap. It's cheaper than it was. Of course back at the end of October we traded to twenty three times forward. But I think the important thing to note is that as of Monday of last week, we did get a little bit over sold on a short term basis, which is why we think the markets

The two ways to look at this.

On one hand, you could say Wow, markets are really complacent. They're not looking at the potential tail risks. The other way to look at this is markets tend to be right and more level headed in looking through geopolitics. And if they're all saying the same thing, well, who am I to fight them?

So where do you stand on that?

So one of the reasons why you can look through geopolitics is usually analysts get too scared too fast, which means that they cut their estimates way too much and then end up having to chase their estimates higher. We have a very simple rule. Markets like it when estimates are going up. They don't like it when estimates are going down. But if you never cut your estimates, it means that you still have a very high bar.

To surprise to the upside.

And that's a big difference versus what we got last year in twenty twenty five, going back to times like twenty twenty two or even COVID, where analysts were so quick to cut their estimates that it created a low bar to surprise to the upside.

Now the bar is still very high.

So everyone is living with that scar.

I wonder if it's even though across different sectors, if it's the same with a consumer that might be facing higher oil and energy prices. If it's the same for utilities, if it's the same, Is it a broad brush right now?

Yeah?

I think the most fascinating thing is that what's been driving earnings estimates higher over the course of the last month has been not things related to the oil or energy shock. It has been the fact that it's been semiconductors.

I have, say something like semiconductors, those chip making stocks, A lot of it has felt very momentumy, and that seemed to be in the driving seat for a lot of the market shakeout that we've seen. To what degree has market positioning reset and more fundamentals will dictate the price action.

Yeah, So if we look at consolidated positioning, which Deutsche Bank has a great measure of that, the positioning has reset to about the twentieth percent, so not nearly as washed out as we got to at the lows during Liberation Day, but suggests that if news were to get better, more people could get dragged into this market. We have seen some positioning resets when it comes to megacap growth as well, which just suggests that again, better news could draw more people in.

We're talking to Cameron Dawson right now, and of course this is a very volatile moment, and we're getting some headlines from Iran from the Foreign Ministry saying that Iran demands the end to the war. Iran continues to go on to say that no rational person would agree to a ceasefire, talking about a ceasefire meaning creating just simply.

A short pause to regroup.

A lot of questions about noise versus signal, and Cameron, I'm curious from your perspective, how you take some of the incurrent coming rhetoric, both from the US, from Iran, from allies, from unreported sources and get a sense of whether we're moving closer to some sort of resolution, whether we're moving closer to some sort of escalation that could lead to wheel damage and facilities in the region.

Yeah, it looks it's incredibly difficult, and I think that last point is probably the most important one, which is that what kind of damage are we seeing that does not allow oil prices to return to their pre war levels. Effectively, we've been arguing it's not where oil prices go, it's where they stay, and if they stay at elevated levels because of this damage, it just suggests that we don't

Absorb an oil supply shock.

If you look at the last three months the average jobs added with sixty eight thousand. Contrast that to twenty twenty two, we were adding four hundred thousand jobs on average, a lot more room with a lot more wage growth to absorb the increase in oil prices.

That's the reason why this week is going to be so important for so many people. The fact that we get core PCEE data, that key magic that the FED looks at and then CPI on Friday, gives a sense about how much some of these gasoline prices, these diesel prices are already plowing into a consumer.

We're spending. How will that affect your view?

I mean, could this be a turning point for.

You in some ways to just understand what damage is actually being done to the US economy.

I think it will be incredibly important. The US economy, after all, is two thirds of overall or US consumers two thirds of overall economic growth, and.

You have to appreciate that.

Over the last year, we've seen a big difference between the growth and personal income, which has been flat to down, versus personal spending, which has been very robust. And the gap between those two has been driven by a willing down of the savings rate, which is made possible by a very strong wealth effect, which is made possible by

One of the conversations around COVID of why the consumer was strong and why markets rebounded was the huge amounts of fiscal stimulus put into the market. This time around, it's also a government that has less room. We're already running large deficits. President Trump just asking for a huge allocation to defense in his most recent budget. How does that alter things with the one big beautiful bill already out there? Maybe in the inability to keep pumping stimulus.

It gives you a lot fewer degrees of freedom.

You're going in with a deficit to GDP at six and a half percent, with yields already higher, and inflation already higher at three point one percent on core PC, which is expected to come in later this week, which just suggests that even if you want to do stimulus, there may be less market appetite to be able to absorb some of that stimulus, which just means that we might just have to take our medicine when it comes to this supply shock.

Stay with us. Mulblenberg Savannah's coming up off to.

This oil flo fluctuating with traders on edge over President Trump's ultimatum for a run and reports of ongoing ceasefire talks. Dan Pickering of Pickering Energy partners, writing talk is cheap and getting cheapers. Threats, deadlines, and promises of deals get pushed to the right.

Dan joins us.

Now, Tan, Dan, thank you so much for being with us. I want to start not necessarily on the noise, but on what's going on on the ground, what you're seeing in terms of the damage, the delays to get things restarted, even if there was some sort of ceasefire or truce in the near future.

Ai Lisa, good morning.

The issue here is the ongoing violence, but it's also the restart time when you look at the shut ins of fields further back up the Gulf, in the Middle East, Saudi Kuwait, Iraq, etc.

I think the issue is even.

If there was a ceasefire, even if there's a cessation of hostilities, you know, the question is how long does it take to get going, And that's going to be measured I think in months, not weeks, and so you know this has a long tail to it that the market's starting to absorbed. But I don't think fully appreciates because of all the news on the front part of the curve.

Dan.

We talked to different officials in the administration, in the Trump administration who said we're taking cues from the forward curve and the fact that forward curve come down comes down in prices are expected to drop significantly by the end of the year. How much do you glean from the forward curve the idea that oil's futures traders are expecting oil prices at least based on the pricing to come down significantly.

Yeah, I think it matters a lot when this finishes, how it finishes. The reality is open the straight prices are going to come down. Triple digit numbers are too high on a sustainable basis if the straight is open, And the question is really where do you settle forward curve right now? Twenty seven to twenty eight is showing prices in the high to mid sixties to me, probably feels a little conservative as we feel the impact of drawing down these inventories. But the reality is triple digit

Well, just now, as pricing stands down to your point in the high sixties, what would be more appropriate, what would look what should it look like to price in risks accurately to the strait of hormuse right now?

Yeah, if we don't open the straits, that the back end of the curve is going to move towards the front right, so we'll take oil into the eighties and potentially the nineties. I think the more appropriate conversation is how complicated is the Middle East after this conflict ends?

If Iran is in.

Charge of the Strait, there has to be some sort of a risk or disruption premium, and that's probably going to be measured in five to ten bucks of barrels. So I think mid seventies to high seventies is probably the realistic number if if we end this with Iran in charge of the Strait?

Is there a demand just diduction at that level?

Dan?

Or is that a price that the world can continue functioning with.

I think it's a painful price, but one that the world functions. So demand destruction is going to be measured in the one hundred and twenty one hundred and thirty hundred and fifty. You've heard some really big numbers associated with that. If the straits open, we don't need to destroy demand. Can demand continue to grow at seventy five or eighty dollars?

WTI?

The answers, yes, wood would markets, the President, etc.

Like?

Prices lower certainly, but seventy five to eighties manageable.

I was rucked by something that fatib Role of the International Energy Agency said to the FT over the weekend. He was talking about hoarding. He said, I urge all countries not to impose bans or restrictions on exports. He went on to say, it is the worst time when you look at the global oil markets, their trade partners, their allies, and their neighbors will suffer as a result. He was clearly talking about a certain nation, did not

Yeah?

The real issue is whether or not these countries are going to release their strategic reserves to offset the shortages. The real question when you're fighting for barrels amongst your neighbors is you know what what price does it take to get that barrel.

To your shores?

And in a situation of shortage, what do people do They do?

Hoard?

They don't want to, they don't want to use what they've got.

They want to.

Acquire more so that they can can stay in the game, if you will, so, right now, we haven't seen releases from Chinese. China's stockpiles in Japan, the US, other OECD countries are starting to release stocks, but it's moving fairly slowly. It's a long process. It will take several months for that to push ahead.

To put this together with what Danny was asking you about, which I think is something that is the key point. We can take a look at the forward curve. When do you start pricing in the risk premium that this is not a one off, this is something that can continue in terms of the geopolitical tensions around shipping and particularly shipping energy of products. I mean, at what point do you see the forward curve in oil futures underpricing that reality that is very much being demonstrated.

The day's coming.

If we continue to have this cat and mouse game of deadlines that are extended and pushed forward and the conflict continues, I think the market stops listening as much to what politicians on both sides of the conflict are saying and just continue to look at the barrels. If the barrels don't come through the straits, the realization that the market is going to continue to tighten, I think seeps in and folks stop believing pieces coming start believing

Got to go higher. The back part of the curve moves up.

Stay with us, multplinbeg Savannah's coming up.

Off to this.

Joining us now is Colonel Wayne Sanders, senior defense analyst at Bloomberg Intelligence. Colonel, thank you so much for being with us. We had headlines earlier this morning from the Iranian side with the Foreign Ministry saying that no rational person would.

Agree to a ceasefire.

A ceasefire means creating a short pause to regroup. How seriously should we be taking discussions of some sort of ceasefire by eight pm tomorrow Eastern time?

I think that from.

A political perspective, everybody needs to be able to come forward and do that. From a military objective's perspective, I agree with the assessment that not a whole log is actually gained by that.

You're pretty much saying.

The US takes their foot off the gas in terms of all the strikes that they have done.

And over the weekend, as.

You saw, Iran was actually able to show some of the vulnerability to close air support assets with the APACHE with the F fifteen as well as excuse me, as well as some.

Of the other close air acts, the A tents.

So that actually shows right now that anybody who's coming to a military side of the house is no, I need to actually double down and achieve more of those military objectives. The problem is that the rest of the world is looking for anything that's going.

To allow some level of a release valve.

And you saw that a couple of times, even during the Iran Israel Twelve Day war, when they came for a ceasefire, they needed to be able to take that time so that behind the scenes they could reach what they wanted to reach.

Colonel there was a report from Israel which it said that Iran still had more than a thousand missiles that could threaten it. What do we understand about the capabilities of Iran to enact that type of pain with this continued missiles, cheap drones that they've had at their disposal.

Yeah, their drone stockpile is still significant, right The Shihet one three six is one of the most long range and effective ones that you've seen actually take a lot of the Gulf States right now, a lot of them have been targeted with the drones. Their missile capability has been severely weakened. But depending on where you're looking at the numbers, yeah, you can see up to almost one thousand.

A lot of the launchers have.

Been damaged, so their ability to actually bolly those things that scale becomes an issue. But right now you've seen a lot of Iran be able to do stuff with just one or two targets at a time. They don't have to launch a lot, they just have to be able to strike their targets.

Well.

When it comes to the proxyes Klonel, this is something that Israeli forces and American forces had said that in past conflicts they significantly weaken them.

Is that the case this time around?

Is has bolas, they have these tens of thousands of rockets to use.

Are they weakened at this point?

I think the number of folks that they have to actually do this, yes, absolutely. The number of hostiles that are involved, yes, The number of infrastructure compared to where they used to be, yes, I think people didn't quite understand exactly how large the proxy force threat around the world was. That's actually been getting mitigated over the past ten years or so, and you're actually seeing a lot of that come from the proxies.

Now.

I actually expected a lot more proxy involvement earlier on. You've seen some of it on the non kinetic side. You've seen proxies tryafor cyber attacks and others as well. But you know, as this continues to go on, it ends up being another lever that i RAN can pull and still provide some level of plausible deniability.

Colonel Sanders, it's been a lot of the weekend trying to figure out ways that this could end that would be palatable to both the GCC, the Gulf countries as well as the United States and Israel. Do you see any path to creating some sort of new normal that would be palatable to the partners in the region and that would lead to some sort of permanent end to the fighting.

I think when i RAN talks about compensation, when they talk about war compensation, I think there obviously has to be some level acknowledgement that says, hey, look, we did the following things to you and I ran. And so from that perspective, we're going to give you a certain

How much are inventories of missiles, anti ballistic missile inventories as well as others of the US is moving to the region. How much is that getting depleted? How much is that going to ultimately be the decider deciding factor of this war?

Who runs out first?

I think I think it's a matter of we have we have several different types right I think the Gulf States right now are looking at different options for some cheaper solutions. You have these systems called apkwus, these advanced precision kill weapons that are a lot cheaper and scalable and able to bring those to bear a lot faster with BAE and with El three Harris and their Vampire systems.

It is something that's of concern.

Even when you look at the naval, the naval superiority that we have a lot of our s M three and SM six that we launched from our naval vessels, those also come into play here.

There is a.

Huge ramp up going on right now in the US, specifically to quadruple production.

You see a lot of.

That with RTX and Lockey to be able to build these, but it does come into costs because it's not something that you can just turn that spigot on overnight and actually bring back those numbers.

This is the Bloomberg Surveillance Podcast, bringing you the best in markets, economics, and geopolitics. You can watch the show live on Bloomberg TV weekday mornings from six am to nine am Eastern. Subscribe to the podcast on Apple, Spotify or anywhere else you listen, and as always, on the Bloomberg Terminal and the Bloomberg Business app