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This is the Bloomberg Surveillance Podcast. I'm Jonathan Ferrow, along with Lisa Bromwitz and Amrie Hordern. Join us each day for insight from the best in markets, economics, and geopolitics from our global headquarters in New York City. We are live on Bloomberg Television weekday mornings from six to nine am Eastern. Subscribe to the podcast on Apple, Spotify, or anywhere else you listen, and as always on the Bloomberg Terminal and the Bloomberg Business App. Julian and Manuel of
Evercore looking for deals. Our base case is that the lows of this sell off have been seen and that a recession will be narrowly averted. But the clock is ticking. The art of the deal needs to begin bearing through. Julian, good morning, Good morning. How exhausting is all of this?
You said twenty four hours. It's felt like twenty four weeks. Basically, Look, we knew this was going to be this way.
Okay.
I think if you go back to January twentieth and you saw everything that was done on inauguration.
Day, to expect this.
Is part for the course, really, but again, it is the narrative of.
Several weeks ago.
There were still questions as to whether the Trump administration was willing to tolerate a recession to achieve some of its aims. What we've seen in the last twenty four hours and going back to.
The pivot in early April, is.
That is absolutely not the case, and removing the large left tail outcome in markets has been very positive.
Rewiring the system is difficult. We've talked about it a few times on this program, that you've got both a shock to the cycle and a potential shock to the system. But what we've also seen and witnessed down in Washington, DC is that some of these policies are so extreme, so out there that they're somewhat self limiting, that are almost negotiating with themselves on certain issues. You get the same sense when you look at what's happening down in Washington.
There is an element to that, and again it is is the you know, the shock to the system.
This this concept that you know.
The all in raw number to global way to taris is higher than smooth Hawley. You don't really need to say much more than that, And that is the element of you know, self limiting. But again it goes back to the negotiating style. You know, throw out the maximalist case out there and then see and wait for the other side to start responding.
And we saw that in Trump's first administration.
This is a phrase.
I don't think the president likes this idea of a Trump put. But have we now seen that there is a Trump put and there is a level that they are unwilling to deal with.
Well, I wouldn't necessarily call it a put per se, but again it just goes back to this idea that there's an acknowledgment that the extremity of what they're trying to do and the speed with which they're trying to
do it. And remember all of this is set against a debt ceiling negotiation that has to happen in the next two months, and then further on down the line, the acknowledgement that the traditional historical tendency is for the Republicans will lose the House of Representatives in twenty twenty six, so you have to front.
Load all of this. So that is the shock to the system.
But again, you know there is no wish for a recession, and so you know by that virtue the Trump put itself does seem to exist south of five thousand.
On the end desk, John brought up a great point on whether or not they're negotiating with themselves. Maybe the President is going through the motions out loud, but also behind the scenes there are two three different rivals. This is a cast of characters. In terms of the cabinet. At this moment, it does look like Scott Besson, the Treasury Secretary, is leading the charge on a lot of this.
Is this rally?
Is this relief just temporary? I say, if Peter Navarro comes back into being one of those driving forces.
Well, if you look at the cast of characters, there are some who are more volatile, some who are less volatile. Secretary Bestent is clearly the lower volatility, the vic sub thirty type individual, which is what we have this morning. But again going back to the first Trump administration, that's the way he likes to run it. The court fights amongst itself.
The problem that Jindine, you've touched on it. That's what we have this morning. What do we have tomorrow? You've got a constructive view that goes beyond just five minutes. What does the rest of the year break.
The rest of the year brings progress on the initiatives that have been brought forth. You know, look, from our point of view, if you think about a timeline, what you're going to get on May seventh from the Fed is a we told you we weren't budging.
We're waiting to see more data.
We have every indication that we don't need to move on interest rates now. So by that virtue, you've actually got to put some tariff points on the board between now and May seventh more likely, and you know it seem reasonable to expect you'll start to hear better news.
I think this is an important exercise. You've got to try and get your head through summer. Let's get to the end of the summer and look out twelve months. What does that world look like.
We actually have to project that far out, Jonathan. I mean, investing is only a one week thing now. No, Look, the bottom line here is all of this has been a disruption to the way America does business, no question about that. And what you're hearing from companies now is earning season gets into full swing is how they're trying to deal with it. But the bottom line is is
after they're dealing with it. The last two years of really being incredibly diligent and responsible about guarding and maintaining margins at the corporate America level means there is going to be an ability to make the transition. And so from our point of view, if you're thinking about the markets, the fact that consensus is looking for nine percent earnings growth this year down from fourteen our views, you're still going to get.
Five actually means that, you.
Know, the implication is a, there won't be a recession, which we is our base case, but B for equity markets, that's fine, that's his quote unquote transition period.
What would make you change your mind and think we the US could tip into a recession.
The data would have to start rolling over severely, you know. And look, we do think the data is going to moderate. But again it goes back to this idea that what we have seen post pandemic is a different world pre pandemic. So the sentiment data has been absolutely abysmal, but it really hasn't had any material effect on the hard data.
If that is no longer the case, and we switch back to pre pandemic relationship, which we don't see, and that's why everyone is so much on pins and needles, particularly for the May second employment report and then the weekly jobless data. That's a different set of circumstances. We just don't see that right now.
We're already seeing the data be distorted, though flatted, by some pull forward. We saw that in retail sales, particularly auto purchases, which I find amazing. You're worried about the economy, so you've got to buy car America. That's where we are. I want to understand what the rest of the summer brings once you pull forward activity. Are we going to hit some an pockets in the next few months.
I think there will be.
And if you go back to that last inflation report, which was softer than expected, is that a lot of the distortion was by a decline in price in used cars because people were buying new cars in front of the tariffs. So I think, again, this is one of these things in this higher volatility environment we're living with the data being distorted. But if the overall trend remains intact, you know, our assumption is we're going to be.
Able to get through this without a recess.
So I spick up the pieces. We've done a lot of damage, not just at the index level, but Nathan index. We're seeing some real damage to some big tech names, some high fliers of the last several years. As you look at picking up the pieces what you like this.
Morning, we actually are of the view and this is typical in when bear markets end, is that the things that got sold off the harders, which in this case where the bull market leaders of the prior two years.
Are going to resume the mantle.
Call it mag seven, call whatever you want, but the fact is is that part of the US market's, a large part of the US market's out performance has been driven by technology, and for US, that is a story that has further to run.
Alphabet and it's twenty four rounds of white Julian. It is good to see you, sir. As a wise, Ji and Emmanuel have evercore kitchigs of self gen writing. Less FED independence equals a weeker dollar. Even if we assume the president can't or won't fire the FED chair, the makeup of the FMC can change over time. Kit joined us now for more, Kit, welcome to the program, Sir? Do those words do enough to repair the damage done?
They do enough to stop the move We've had and calm things down. You know, it looked stretched, But no, I think that the heart of the issue is that the rest of the world is dramatically overinvested in US assets and probably now realizes that they need to.
Like not, Kit, we've seen that rebalancing it started, and to your point, the dollar long that's built up goes beyond just a couple of years. It's been built up over the space of more than a decade.
Kit.
How much but rebalancing do you expect to see in the years to come?
How long would be the string? I guess.
I mean, it's still the world strongest economy, biggest economy. You know, they still do great things, So I don't think it'll all get reversed. I do sort of sit and ponder the nineteen eighties when the dollar went straight up on the back of President Reagan's policies, and it gave it all up without the lews US losing its exceptionalism. So I, you know, kind of it could go down in the long run further than I think.
Kid, the Treasury Secretary recently said to me last week that the US still has a strong dollar policy. Do their policies actually match that?
Well?
Yes, well, okay, the dollar is strong. The US has been running fiscal policies that are consistent with a strong currency, not a weaker one. But I don't see how the current policies are consistent with the dollar not losing some of its exceptional.
Strength, except some strength maybe will be lost. But you still think that the US is the reserve currency.
Yeah, Look, we still don't have a candidate or an alternative. You know, we've done We've done gold, silver, the pround, and the dollar in the last five hundred years.
Which is why a lot of people are going to stick with the US dollar.
Kate.
There are questions though about the current account deficit that's currently been ran and how you would track that foreign capital. You're either going to do that through the FX channel through a weaker currency, or you need much higher rates. Is it one or the other or both for you? And how do you think that plays out in the coming months.
I think it's going to be both over time. But I think part of the challenges if domestic capital leaves, for example, you know, the world's biggest net investor abroad, Germany has work to do at home, so they'll attract capital back. Then the US needs to save more at the margin as well. They can't go on running such a big current account deathits can't necessarily run such a commodative fiscal policy, and so I think we'll see a change in the States as well.
The most interesting chart for me KIT is over in Europe, and it's the euro versus China EUROCNY. I think over the last several months has been fascinating KIT, because, as we've talked about in this program, the biggest threat to price stability in Europe at the moment might be Chinese exports. Based on that chart, could become a bigger problem in
the months to camp. KIT. What kind of relationship do you anticipate in between the two trading blocks in the next year or so, What does it mean for this currency pair, and what ultimately does it mean for interest rates to the ECB.
I think it's going to be a difficult relationship at the margin anyway, just because China needs to find other places to export to and Europe is going to be very wary of them dumping in any form into the European market. The challenge that we have at the foreign ex change level is that the yuan, the Chinese currency, really doesn't move very much, so it's static. So if the euro goes up against the dollar, it's going to go up again against the yuan. Kit you said that, no, continue, sorry,
and I was gonna say so. The result of that is that we're getting a very strong euro against the yuan, which is going to deflate Europe at a time when that's not really what they want to do, and it leans against the fiscal expansion, and it limits how strong the euro can stay and get.
You said that the Europeans are going to be weary of the Chinese dumping on their market. Kit, do you think it's enough for the Europeans to put up their own tier walls when it comes to China.
No, I don't think. I think Europe is very aggressively against formal tariffs, so, but I do think that once you've started kind of challenging free trade, that the whole thing is a more fragile edifice. And so it'll with a splinter a bit because we just get all these knock on effects.
Quick final question for your kit, Euro dollar one fourteen. At the moment, we will remember the day's pre negative rates back in twenty fourteen, when they were implemented that summer. We remember how stubborn the euro was, stubborn euro strength. What are we going back to? What kind of world? Kit? Are we going back to the pre negative rate era of say one twenty one, thirty one, forty? How do you think about that?
I can't see how in real terms that the europe can justify the levels of sort of sly, the one thirty one to forty levels, I think they're gone. Frankly, I think we'll see one twenty again. I think that's probably that's the bit I can manage in my head. But the European economy needs to develop much stronger underlying growth to get above that for a lot, to stay above.
That, Kit, appreciate your input as always, sir, Thank you. Kit Jig's there of selk gen danis of Wentworth raising its price targets a three point fifty writing recommitting a CEO and leaving its dogs Roll is the biggest and best possible news investors could have heard. Tesla got back its biggest asset, Musk Dana. I've joined this now for
more Dank and Monica to see it. Okay, so you're saying this is a recommitment other people would look at this and say, well, he's still going to be that two days a week, and that's a problem.
I mean, I view this this was an off rahnd. I mean, however, you want to sort of weave what one to two days. I think this is the beginning of the end for him at duge with Trump Whitehouse, because that was a different musque. On the conference call, that was a different musk. And we've seen actually over the years he dressed it head on, read the.
Room, and we've talked about it. This was it was a fork.
In the road, a moment of truth.
Sure he took advantage of it, and I believe now it's a new chapter.
And anyway, the dark chapter.
In the past.
Let's unpack the perceived problem of the last few months that you called a dark chapter. Some people believe money in fact, that the president and Elon Musk relationship has damaged the brand in the mind of liberals. Want to be very clear about that. Points had the stock. Do you acknowledge that that is what's happened over the past few months.
We've talked about it.
I mean, it's the brand damage is real.
It's been a dark cloud on Tesla's that we talked about anywhere from ten to twenty percent because Tessa became a political symbol.
Why would that change If Elon Musk is still that two days a week.
Again and I don't believe he's a good again. The one two days a week, however you want to like phrase it. My view is, and we talked about in the show, this is the off ram to be like, okay, one two days a week and I'm gone. I'm not saying that you're not going to see him at times with Trump, but we believe this is his taking a massive step back recommitting to Tesla. And look, this was a different Musk on the conference call. This was not
the normal Musk. This is one reading the room, aware of everything going on from a brand perspective, and I believe this it's going to start a new chapter with the brand damage is still going to be there, but I believe at least it will be continued. He doesn't double down, and this was an important time I think would define the future of Tesla if Musk actually doubled down.
Dude, But how does he fix a brand damage? Now, to Jonathan's point, one to two weeks in the White House, he's also still the self proclaimed first buddy. He's still going to be out there advocating for the president.
I think that's gonna be significantly diminished. I mean, I'd be surprised if we sit here one two, three months and that's still happening, even on social media. I mean, he's still gonna say what he wants, but I think even some of that will be diminished. Look, I don't know if it's the board, if it's some of his confidence, but the reality is for Tesla.
Look, that's why this was a code read.
Is this a moment though for Tesla to realize that they actually need to brand themselves as Tesla, not as synonymous with Elon Musk.
I think that's that ship sailed because I think the reality is.
Musk as Tesla, Tesla is Musk.
And so much of that has been a positive despite you know, maybe some critic the last three months.
It's been the reason it's.
Been a dark chapter, not just because of the quarter delivered, but the brand damage and what ultimately Tess became a political symbol. And I think it's a recognition that needs to end.
Where in the world do they need to do the most work to bring customers back.
Well, I think China or China's the hearts and lungs of the growth story. I mean BYD has obviously been very strong Neo and others, and I think China is where you really need to start to turn this around. The brand damage in Europe, I think a.
Lot of that you might be permanent.
And we've talked about potentially twenty percent US maybe ten percent brand damage. And my view is just that's still going to be there, but you had to contain it. You have to start to in terms of autonomous robotics and this was this was a moment, so.
Show me the gross where does it come from and how soon does it come.
Well, I believe a huge part of the valuation is going to be autonomous and robotics. I mean my view, like on Supervised FST, you will start in Austin in June, when you look out over the coming years, I I believe autonomous and robotics will be ninety percent of the valuation of the story over the coming years.
You spend a lot of time with the product. How good is it right now? Full self trying to think.
I mean, I think we're probably what's called seventy five percent that to where you need to.
Be seventy progress half we made so I think seventy five to I see now where we say, twelve months ago, three months ago.
I think we were probably if I go back maybe a year.
Ago, say we're probably sixty percent sixty five. No, you got now technically you gotta get to nine nine point nine nine us to get there. But I believe they're making huge traction. And I think when we get to unsupervised FSD in Austin, it's a huge step to where the story needs to get to. And my whole point is if this was an Intel, a Boeing, okay it's a disaster, it doesn't even matter in terms of but for Tesla, it's my view, along with the video too
best often technology companies in the world. That's what was so frustrating and why we were so loud, because you can't burn the house down now on this. You need to actually focus in the future. And I think that's why that's why that was a different Musk on the conference, cause.
When do we get to the point where we see Elon Musk's realization of Americans really won't go out and be buying cars anymore.
Look, I think that that's still much more of a longer term view.
I mean, I think for decade.
Look, I think that's something that you're gonna have to go past to twenty thirty.
And I'm not a believer in that.
I'm believer autonomous is gonna be a huge piece. Robotics is a huge piece. But that's much more, you know, I think when you will long return. But the reality now, it's about turning it around. It's about containing the brand damage. And it's also it's about must leaders lead? This is the time to lead, and I think I think Must took for him a huge step forward on.
We're not just dowage. He's involved in neuralink x XAI. He is spread very thin. So why do you think all that tension is going to come rushing back to Tesla?
And And that's who much is always going to be. But it's about the political damage that he did, because ultimately it became a political symbol for Trump administration, for Duge.
And that can't happen.
And I think this, I truly believe he underestimated the life of its own, that this was ultimately going to become. And I think over the last few weeks there was a recognition like, look this, this cannot sustain showing forward.
Are you over estimating the leadership accunty has in the SEC test. So this is the question that comes from my blowback subscriber. Let me to read it to you. B Y d If introduced CONTs with double the range of Tesla and a five minute recharge. Tesla has the same caress seven years ago, numb innovation in the range and recharge. They were an also ran in China. Won't you sent back to that?
I'd say, let's talk in six months when we actually start to actually have from an autonomous perspective in terms of new vehicles that I believe are ultimately going to be out there, Refreshes and Musk and Tesla. How many times have been count out? I mean, I can tell you in the last decade, I probably count on both hands.
I remember how many times Speed why DA would count it out as well.
But I'm more posit. I'm not negative on BYD.
My view is just when you look at the opportunity for Tesla, it is going to be really about autonomous and the robotics future.
And I think from.
Musk last night, this this will be a moment in time. Historically, he had a choice. He made the right choice in my opinion, And I think now we start a new chapter, still out with the chop ahead challenges.
But byd has something Tesla doesn't, which is easy access to the batteries. And China has eighty five percent of the lithium. They have the processing to make these batteries and the raw materials. How challenging is that path forward for Tesla and other American EV makers, But.
Also it goes back to Musk in terms of Beijing and in terms of everything we've seen with Giga in Shanghai. I mean the point is, like Tesla is, you know, is cemented in China. It's not like they're just a US car man you're trying to get into China. That's why from a raw material from production, from a vertically integrated perspective. But when you talk about the raw materials, and we've said it like that, that comes down to talk about tariffs and talk about everything. Where where's the
materials coming from. They're not coming from New Jersey and they're come from China. And I think that's also why a lot of things happen in the white house walls cave it in, and it's you could talk fairytale reality. And that's why I also Musca's anti tariffs speaks to some of the issues.
You all the bad things to be the first buddy, but not the good things.
You literally got all the bad things, like all the bad things in a horror show, none of the good.
And that's why we're here where we are.
It's certainly not the conversation we have with you back in November decemba time.
It's a lot different than that Cinderella story that turned into basically Nightmare and Elm Street.
But now we take a new chapter.
Then we'll say it's another famiery tale. It's gonna say it, so my question.
I am here at the International Monetary Fund. It is a very different series of meetings. There aren't the same kinds of banners outside. It's a more subdued kind of feeling. And yet there are people collecting in Washington, DC for the first time since President Trump was inaugurated from all around the world, including the president of the Bundesberg, Jachham Nagel, who joins us, now, I'm so glad to see you, and I want to start with this question of how different are these IMF meetings.
I guess this year, I guess this meeting is a very special one. I think the world economy is in a very delicate situation, and I will use this time here to learn a little bit more of what we can do to make it better, to make the economy running. Have you better understanding what's going on? And there are a lot of There are really a lot of uncertainties.
One of the uncertainties is what's coming from the United States, in particular when it comes to tariffs, and how much that not only is a ramification for the US economy but also the global economy.
How are you thinking about.
Tariffs and how much they could depress growth?
Say in Germany, I.
Said a couple of months ago, when it comes to tariffs, I was of the opinion that this will trigger a lot of problems. And now we see how the problems evolved over the last couple of weeks and months, and so we have to have a better understanding how we can find, let me say, a kind of a compromise, a kind of a level playing field that brings us closer together. Because chists, these are so tervists are not a good policy.
This is for sure.
If they stay.
Is there a sense that it gives you more room to cut rates?
I think, first of all, I guess we have to take into account as central bankers also terrorists.
What does it mean for Europe? I guess when.
We're talking about monitor policy in the US system, we are on a good pass. I guess we can come close to price stability over the course of this year. And this is good news. But there's a lot of uncertainty, and so we said last week because of that, we have to be very cautious. We have to wait what might come, how this uncertainty might evolve over the next week. So we have this meeting to meeting approach, and this, I guess is the best way to conduct monitor policy.
Since the beginning of last year.
Since a peak rate of four and a half percent at the ECB, you've cut right seven times deposit rate of two and a quarter percent.
Is that neutral?
I will not speculate about neutral.
I guess only in a hindsight we really know where neutral may be war or maybe is so I guess I have to look what the numbers, the figures are telling me, and there I see a lot of let me say good news when it comes to the inflation story. When we talk about economic cross there's a lot of more uncertainty because terravices are not good for economic crows.
So the latest news.
That we got from the IMF here we know that this is for Europe not good news. We are in a stagnating situation. So stagnation is the picture for this year. Maybe recession for my country, for Germany, I cannot exclude a slide. Let me say recession this year. So this is what we have to work on, and monetary policy can only give us a good indication when it comes to a good direction when it comes to when it comes to stable prices.
The thread of tariffs has had an unexpected effect in market of actually weakening the dollar pretty substantially and strengthening the euro, which on the margins could actually be a disinflationary force, especially if you're important goods from overseas That would lead to lower effective prices in euros.
Does that give you some.
Breathing room to actually cut rates in response to potential weakness, if that reduces some of the inflationary pressure.
I guess it's much too early to really come to the final conclusion, what does this tariff scenario mean for both sides of the Atlantic. It seems to be, at least from the moment, that the price of that tariffic decision has to be paid in the United States and not in Europe. It seems to be that prices might go up much more in the United States compared to the European Union. When it comes to economic growth, I
think the picture is pretty much the same. It's also a track on the economic growth here in the United States.
Also in Europe.
But I will not speculate about monitory policy and what we will do next in our next meeting.
How much are you watching what China is doing in terms of any trade barriers from the US causing them to export more of their productions, say to Germany and potentially lower prices with respect to an abundance of exports to the countrary, I think.
China is an important player here. This is for sure.
I guess it's not only for US the Europeans, let me say, a very uncomfortable situation.
I guess also for China.
And yes, there might be a scenario that they are looking for new markets. Additional markets was already being a market for Chinese products, but now maybe they can maybe use your more compared to the past, as an additional market. But as I alluded to already, I think it's a lot of speculating. It's a lot of speculation. What does that mean this tarriff discussion? And it's too early to really assess what is the detail in really any aspect.
It's much too early just to add to the confusion. And if you really are looking for any kind of compass and want to just change everything. Germany has been known for the zero depth break and this idea of not raising the deficit any capacity that has changed. We've been talking extensively about spending not only for defense but also for a whole host of different investments. Does that create more inflationary pressure? Does that just improve the growth picture?
How does that sort of influence some of your modeling.
It is important to say that the role of Germany does not change, or that didn't change, because the stabilica anchor of Germany is still there. So, as I said, I think we're living in a very complicated world, so it was necessary from a German perspective to do more regarding defense spending.
Was also clear that we have to do.
Much more when it comes to overcoming our infrastructure issue. So I guess this fiscal package is an important message to the world that Germany is doing its homework and we will improve over time. The economy will do much better over the next years, and for me as a center panker, this is at the end good news.
But is it inflationary?
As far as I can overseee the current situation, it will not be inflationary because we are coming out of a situation stagnation tea maybe a kind of a recession, so it's not inflationary over the next course of the years. It's helpful to the economy, means more economic growth, and this is good news.
One thing that's happened over the past couple of weeks in particular, has been this fear of the United States losing its position as the currency of the world, as well as treasury is having a special status.
And one thing that we've seen in the flow is a.
Lot of money going into German boots as we're the new haven and we're hearing a lot about diversification away from the United States into German assets.
Do you welcome that? Do you think that would be positive.
Well, I think that it is not good news that there's a lot of let me say, doubt regarding the safe haven of US treasuries. Think this is not good news. And you're absolutely right. Some of that money went to German boons. But all in all, we need the US treasury market is a good stable market that gives a lot of let me say, certainty, and we should overcome this turbulent situation and we should give back the US treasure it is safe haven status because it is not
helpful to all of us. If there are some doubts uncertainty around you here about the US treasuring market, it.
Wouldn't necessarily provide a support the same kind of privilege of spending I don't want to say recklessly, but with abundance in Germany.
If Germany were to have that safe heaven status.
I think Germany, and I alluded to that is the stability anchor of Europe. In Europe, German boons is a perfect example for this. And this will not go away. But we need a good US treasuring market. This is so important for the financial markets worldwide.
Speaking of which you're going to be meeting with Jerome Powell, the Fed chair at these meetings this week.
What are you going to ask him?
I think Jarum Paul he is a great guy.
I really admire him what he did over his career in center banking. And so we talk about the current situations.
So the current situation is potentially some sort of threat to central bank independence. That was taken off the table to some degree when President Trump yesterday, in response to a reporter, said that he has no intention of firing Veeder J. Powell and that this was media speculation that was RONA. Mack, not necessarily any real indication that he was planning to remove him before his term was up early next year. How concerned are you about threats to central bank independence?
So what is important to me is that independence of center banks. This is the DNA of center banking, of good center banking. So we shouldn't let me say a question to a certain that this is maybe something that we could see in danger. So independence of central bank is of utmost importance.
And J.
Powley, he is a great center banker. He did a marvelous good job. And I guess this is also seen here in the United States.
Do you worry about some sort of financial instability if that continues to be called into question.
I will not speculate here, but in a scenario that you just mentioned, I cannot exclude such a scenario that there is then maybe a lot of globulence coming to the market if this is in question, and we should avoid that that shouldn't come as a realistic scenario, should avoid that this is of such a danger for the world economy. And so I really hope that there's enough understanding how dangerous this could be.
There's a question about what Europe can do to insulate itself and to draw itself closer, and that maybe some of the finance ministers and central banking chiefs can form something of a closer union to try to fortify themselves away from that type of volatility. Have you seen material steps toward that to try to establish that type of stability in the continent.
Absolutely.
I think Europe has I guess now better understanding that we have to do our homework becoming more resilient.
We have to implement all what.
To be discussed over the years, just allude to the captain market union, banking union, maybe a little bit more physical integration. So Europe has to stand together in these complicated times. But on top of that, also these meetings here, the IMF meeting, Development Meeting, these two three days are so important to all of us to work on international cooperation Module Letter. So the Mulji letteralism of our work is so important in these days.
So I will use these days.
Here in Washington, TC to get a better understanding to convince the partners here that the corporation is key in these days.
In the United States, there seems to be a move away from financial debt or incurring more debt, and there's this concern about the fiscal deficit in a pretty significant way. There is a goal to try to retrench some of the spending over the past few years. In Europe, it seems like there is a move in the opposite direction. We talked about that with respect to Germany, that there
is a greater degree of willingness to spend. Do you think that that is appropriate throughout the entirety of the continent, given the fact that there is this desire to try to rebuild and regenerate a whole host of industries.
Let me disagree a little bit here because I do not see that there is a momentum that we're going away from physical discipline. We have still a good understanding in Europe that we are currently in this complicated situation, so we have to do much more compared to defense spending to compared to the past. But if that period is history, then we have to come back to physical discipline. And this is a and this is understood in Europe, and we will go back to that physical.
Discipline going forward.
Do you ever see a time when you can see zero rates again from the ECB or even negative?
Well, as I said, I will not speculate here.
I think we do what we have to do in.
Our next meeting, and this is this is our mandate, this is our huge responsibility, and we did I guess pretty well over the past three years, and I'm very optimistic when it comes to price stability that mission will be accomplished over the course of this year.
So do you think that you are going to get back down to two percent over the course of this year?
Absolutely?
Okay.
And you don't think that necessarily there has to be any material change whatsoever to policy to get there.
No, there's no autopilot. I think we are decent central bankers. So we'll us did the data and then we will find maybe the right decisions.
You Ukham Nagle, thank you so much for being with us. Jachem Nagle, the President of the BUNDESPEG.
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