This is the Bloomberg Surveillance Podcast. I'm Tom Keene, along with Jonathan Farrow and Lisa Abramowitz. Join us each day for insight from the best an economics, geopolitics, finance and investment. Subscribe to Bloomberg Surveillance on demand on Apple, Spotify and anywhere you get your podcasts, and always on Bloomberg dot com, the Bloomberg Terminal, and the Bloomberg Business App. Right now, we're going to dive into this. This is really important.
I'm gonna give you a little bit of visibility here. There are people like men Deep Singh and our Anniragrana who actually walk in offices, sit down at desks, and work. Their hallmark their guidepost is a guy named David Cutler. Dave Cutler was legendary at Digital Equipment Deck years ago
in Maynard, Massachusetts. They stole them to the West coast of Microsoft is one of the founding forces behind something we all do, Windows and t Man Deep sing joins us now and knows Dave Cutler the giant of Microsoft programming. This is about Dave Cutler's. All this is about is this kid Autman can bring the meat over this Microsoft well Okay.
I think in this case it sounds like the CEO was too overconfident and didn't really talk to his executives and you know, the board, and you come to a point where he was making all the decisions about the future of the company. And look, there's no doubt the market is real. I don't think, you know, you can compare it to a Tarranos or one of the hypes here because there are so many other competing companies that
are trying to do the same. The CEO really wanted to move fast in this case r and clearly the board and the executives weren't, you know, in line with them.
There will be forty phone calls made today, mister aman Brockman. I believe it is joining him as well. The attributes they will use to sell a given really really supervite, first in their class and and everything. One of these whiz kids, what are the attributes they sell to say, join us at Microsoft.
Well, so clearly Microsoft is the compute infrastructure that's powering all the open AI lan come.
On stock options. Is it mariners tickets? What? What what gets these guys to move their their slide role over to Microsoft.
I mean that could be an exit, but I can't imagine Microsoft really going out of the way to attract talent. Look, they hired Sam Altman, and they will leave it on him to figure out which of the engineers really he wants on his team at Microsoft and how to get there.
Should they make a year, we're.
Talking about over a million dollars for all of these engineers. So clearly, yeah, that's.
Why is this guy so important?
So he was the face of open AI and think of you know, chatchipt as the verb when it comes to generative AI. That's why it got so much traction, and he was the face of the company. But clearly there were a lot of engineers behind the scenes that were part of the development and they weren't on board with his approach. They had concerns around AI safety, and that's one thing that I think everyone needs to think about in terms of, you know, the roadmap for when
this technology will be deployed. There's a lot going on in terms of developing it, but in terms of really changing your production environments with generative AI, it could be a few years. And that's where I think and not everyone wasn't sync.
If they were more concerned about safety on Friday? Are they more or less concerned this morning?
Now?
Is it Microsoft?
Well, so, clearly the talent loss is a big concern, and that's where the board got it wrong the way they went about it. And clearly, I mean, from all we know, OpenAI could lose almost half of its value just because of the fact that they lost the CEO.
But does it raise a question about policing of some of the these developments at a place that is focused just on making money the bottom line, and when expectations are pretty high in the market.
Well, so look at the development of you know, chat, GPT and all these large anguage models. It's pretty expensive and for any startup to sustain themselves. Right now we are talking about you know, billion dollar R and D budgets, So how do you sustain it? So I don't blame you know, Sam Altman for trying to be ahead in terms of monetization and thinking about it, but not having your executives on board about your thinking or your board. I think that's where you got it wrong.
Well, but I guess I'm wondering from a humanity standpoint, if we're going to go with some of the ideals that they're talking about and the fact that the board was concerned about bots that could kind of take on a life of their own and give all sorts of information online. We're already seeing some sort of emblems of that. How much does that just get magnified with a move to Microsoft that doesn't necessarily have a nonprofit board trying to espouse these values.
Yeah. So the Google approach so far has been They've been very protective about, you know, what they release, so they have been very conservative. A lot of people have actually blamed them for being slow and not releasing their Gemini Large Anguige model. But this sort of validates a Google approach that you have to take a measured approach when it comes to releasing these models, whether it's open source or proprietary. I think we know open AI was
even though it's a nonprofit, everything is proprietary. Well that's I think this brings into focus what should be open source and what can the community work on it collectively, And I think that's on the table now that SAM is moving to Microsoft. I won't be surprised if they go with an open source approach because such an Adellas focus has always been on embracing open source since the time he took the helm.
We've had this conversation already a few times this morning. Let's finish there. We've reported this some oltmums trying to create some kind of rifle too in video. How seriously should we take that? Now he's got to see the Microsoft, I.
Mean Microsoft and now a new chip of their own last week, right, So clearly Microsoft also has ambitions in terms of developing their chip. But at this point of time, I mean now they have to think about what is the IP that Sam can create over the next six months. Can he develop a large ananguage model that's equivalent to chat GPT in the next six months Because it's proprietary, you know, that's not coming over even if he hires the engineers. The engineers have to build it from scratch,
and data availability is in shortage. They can't get the same amount of data that they had before.
Tough question. Microsoft's up about one percent or so in a pre market. If open ai was trading in the pre market, where would it be right now?
I mean at least fifty percent down?
You think that hard?
Yes, because now their IP is gone, I mean, especially with Sam coming over this site, Microsoft has to redo everything from scratch until unless the board resigns and Microsoft ends up acquiring open Ai. That's a plausible scenario. But if they have to build it from scratch, now we're talking about a very long timeline. I mean, Google it's clearly ahead in terms of developing their model.
So everyone's saying the Microsoft is one. But if they've got to write down that stack by fifty percent, have they won?
Well?
So, I mean, I think talent acquisition is one thing I do think when it comes to large and wid models. I mean, there are a couple of open source large and AID models, but you could use that to build yours on top of it. I don't think you know, you can replicate what chatchipt had. Again, I go back to the verb analogy, because everyone thought about you know, generative AI and chat Gipt as synonymous.
Mante, thank you sir for the update. Manti Singher Bloomberg Intelligence.
Joining US is on the short list to be the new Minister of the Economy for the Argentine Republic. Andrew Hollenhorst joins US Chief US Economists. It's City group. Before we get to the serious stuff at hand. How do you save cultural human city grow with your incredible Latin American experience. There no other bank has that experience.
How do you save Argentina?
Yeah, I mean, I think it's what we're seeing in Argentina is what we've seen a lot of places across the globe, which is this kind of anti establishment, anti anti institutionalist trend that we're seeing in policy making. And when you look at the inflation rate in a country like Argentina, you can see why people are looking for a change.
How are we've seen so alone now in a constructive policy out of the pandemic? How a loone will American policy be in twenty twenty four?
I mean, I think one thing that really strikes me when you look at US policy relatives to the rest of the world is the deficit in the US. This is a country now where we're running six seven eight percent of GDP deficit in a world with a very low unemployment rate. There are very few countries that can
do that. The US may be the only one, maybe some other examples that can just consistently run large deficit like that and continue to provide generous fiscal support, so that it's just a very different situation for the US.
Big data point in this week jobless claims, let's go there. You mentioned this in your research at some point. This loosening of the labor market is an unwelcoming deterioration in the data. Are we close to that on jobless claims?
We may be, And I think that's yeah. I think you said it earlier. We're getting some conflicting data here. You have the unemployment rate that's up about half a percentage point over the last few months. If you just look at that data series in isolation and don't try to kind of explain away what you're seeing there, and that's what we tend to do as economists. That's what you've seen before every recession. It looks very much like the path into a recession. Now the jobless claims have
been low, they're still low, but they're a rising. So I think that's the difficulty. We're waiting for data that will confirm one of these narratives and you just don't have the data in yet.
No Death of Anislas mancro had this great phrase in the last couple of weeks, soft landing, Navanna. A lot of people are embracing that soft landing divner. Are you still anticipate in this dual mandate the feder Reserve is going to be in conflict in the coming quarters.
I think more likely than not it will be, and that's just based on the history of what we've seen in cycle after cycle. It would be great for the FED, it would be great for the economy if you just had this wonderful Nirvana like scenario where everything kind of slowed on the same schedule. If we had had a different inflation print last week, we'd be having a very different conversation now. And I think that just shows the extent to which this market is focused on the very
recent data. So we had softer inflation print, we have job those claims that are coming up a little bit that looks like something that could be consistent with the soft landing. But are you going to get some data that starts going in different directions. Probably, and this is probably going to become a lot more difficult for the FED.
But just to build on that, is there an inherent conflict in your belief of a growing chance of a hard landing of a recession but also sticky inflation.
Yeah, So I think that's the real difficulty, and that's what we haven't seen really in decades where you have inflation that's still running above target and you have growth that's weakening. Now, maybe they're going to happen together, And maybe they happen together and kind of just the right quantum so that you get the soft landing. I think it's a possibility, But the more likely scenario is that we'll have these kind of going in different directions where
inflation probably stays stickier and higher. One issue with inflation and the way that the FED is conducting this policy is inflation is going to lag what's going on in the rest of the economy. So even if the economy starts slowing down, job market starts loosening, you'll still be running inflation that reflects where the economy was six months ago or a year ago, and six months or a year ago is very strong.
So are you saying that the Fed won't be kind of rates as much as people think next year because they won't be able to justify it given more inflation.
Is Yeah.
I think that's really the risk here, and it could happen a couple of ways. So you could have this scenario where the activity data is weakening, but you still have inflation that's sticky and high. On the other hand, even if we're on something that ends up looking more like a soft land trajectory, eventually there wouldn't be a lot of urgency for the FED to cut rates in
that scenario. I know, theoretically, if inflation comes down, and I agree at some point the FED would be cutting rates, that could take a very long time before we would actually get those FED cuts.
I need to ask you about the linkage from your UCLA and the Giant Almanac in Alvitor William Sharp, who was a student up at Stanford, eventually to you, which is the risk free rate? You absolutely nailed the increase in rates. Do you have any clue where the risk free rate is in twelve months.
Yeah, Like we were just discussing, it's going to depend on the economic scenario, and I think you have to be open to economic scenarios here. We do know that we're in a world where inflation has been higher, has been more volatile. We know that the correlation between equities and fixed income has flipped. Essentially, you have equity prices that are falling at the same time bond prices are falling. That means we'll probably be some more term premium in there.
That means you'll probably have a higher interest rate all LSEQL, so if anything, that risk free rate is probably going to be higher.
And to what changed? What changed? What changed about the fundamentals of things that's going to lead to this different outcome now relative to pre pandemic.
I think the single biggest thing you can point to is what's different in goods inflation. And I think that's what we're all not looking at enough right now because we've had a big disinflation and good so I think it's easy to kind of look at that and say, well, we've kind of returned to this pre pandemic goods deflation and that's what we had pre pandemic. Goods prices went down over time, and I think anyone who's been out buying things over the last couple of years certainly the
experience is not. The goods prices are down now. Some of that was specific to the pandemic. Some of that's not going to continue. But what will continue is this kind of topping out of globalization, maybe going the opposite way in terms of globalization, and that means that stream of low cost goods it's just not going to be there in the same way that it was putting downward pressure on goods prices. So I think we can expect goods inflation going forward.
So this is a secular call for you. It's not a call about the cy cope.
So that's a secular call. Yeah, I think that we're the idea that inflation now is higher, more volatile, that the economy is more subject to supply shocks than demand shocks. These are structural, secular changes.
Andrew Kreig, to get your perspective on things, Thank you, buddy, it's going to say you, thank you. Good to your houn Hoste.
There is no perception to what nineteen seventy five was. It was when a governor from Georgia wandered up north, delusional that he could actually win an election. At the same time, Ricky Skaggs, Tony Rice, Jerry Douglas and others were doing a seminal album in bluegrass JD. Crow In the New South nineteen seventy five. Terry Haynes remembers this. He remembers the shift of the Old Seuth to the New South. In honor of the first Lady Terry Haynes.
What was the battle that the two Carters had when they invented the New South.
Well, the battle that went on was the idea, and this is middle Watergate post Watergate, the idea that an insurgent could actually shake up Washington. I mean, that was the selling point for Carter. You know, he managed to make that case. He won by a little over President Ford. But then he ran into the realities of Washington, where Tip O'Neill and others took him aside and said, no, actually, this is the time where we get to make the
policy and you get to sign the bills. And one ended up happening was basically a three year Democratic food fight that weakened Carter greatly, not least because Ted Kennedy ran against him, and that ended in President Reagan's election.
Is this Democratic Party now any shade or idea of what the two Carters knew?
Yeah, some of them are. But I think that President Carter would likely be uh, you know, unhappy with the progressive direction, largely because I mean he would be aspirationally progressive, but the idea that uh, you know, they they couldn't win on a particular platform would not be helpful. And uh and he'd see the politics I think very very differently than the current group does.
Who do you think Terry is going to be the torch payer for the Democratic Party in the next four to eight years.
Oh, you know, beyond Biden. I mean, there's going to be a lot of people that are going to fight that out from from Governor Newtisom uh to Governor Whitmer of Michigan.
Uh.
You know, there will be four or five others that will try to pop up. It's going to be very interesting the battle for the soul of the party. The problem is, uh, relevancy. What you've got on the left and on the right is a world where the primary system rewards purists and at the same time, the money out there, the money and the energy, rewards purists as well. So there's a huge middle in the country that feels
unserved on a lot of levels. And that's I think that's the basis of a lot of the tensions you see politically.
Do you think that's the reason why President Biden hasn't stepped down and allow somebody else to run in his stead?
One reason? Yeah, I mean, but you know, Democrats are you know, the the old order never passes quietly, I think historically, and what you've got is in. Biden is by and large the old order, somebody who you know, got there on the promise of centrism, of return to normality.
And and then when you've got in that is you know, the pull and tug between the Centrists and the progressives, and you know that's not the direction the Democratic Party's going, and they're going for good or real and the progressive.
Terry Haynes, who's the Nikki Haley of the Democrats right now?
Oh Nikki Haley. Goodness, there isn't one on the radar screen everybody else who's thinking about running when independent. Witner's probably the closest to that, But I don't think there's a close analog.
When you talk about President Biden and some of the poll numbers recently, I'm wondering, given the foreign policy consideration, how much is the lack of popularity going to drive some policy decisions on his part in the coming months. In other words, does it reduce his support of Israel and change any of his Middle East policy?
I don't think it changes on Israel. I think he gets a little bit tempted on China. The Chinese have been dangling a great deal that you know, if you'd be a little bit more reasonable on Taiwan, We'd work with you one in the Middle East, we'd work with you one rushing Ukraine much more overtly. And you know, so I think he's a little bit tempted in that direction.
But you know, the way the White House sees this, and I was following your comments earlier, the way the White House sees this fundamentally is, you know, it's a race against somebody, and they think that people will end up reluctantly pulling the lever, but actually pulling the lever as much to avoid the likely opposition as anything else.
Harry, do you think China would be happy with another Biden term?
Happy?
Yeah?
I think short, because what China very likely sees is a lot of mud living through a lot of a lot of pronouncements about new policies chips, security and the like, but not a lot of follow through. I mean, there's a headline on the South China Morning Post this morning saying, you know, America is building all these chip factories, but the federal dollars haven't started to flow, which is true.
And you know that's been a year or more after the Ship's Bill was passed you know, one of the things that the United States has got in terms of a large problem is follow through as procurement is actually becoming the arsenal democracy here at this particular.
Point, Terry, appreciate your insight. Thank you, sir, Terry Haynes. Theare of panchea policy.
So, you know, we sort of snoozed off with Jane Foley in London last time we saw her.
Maybe we could do better.
Why don't you.
Bring in Jane here with big moves a checkond.
We did not fall asleep, It just seemed to be rangebound. And now we've actually broken out to one oh nine. The low that we got over the past couple of weeks was just a bit ago at one O six seventy seven one O four sixty seven on October third. This has been a big move. Is at the beginning of something more, Jane Folly? That's really my question? You know, are we going to start to see more protracted dollar weakness?
Oh?
You know, this is I think really exciting, you know, and I think we're at a really equivocabal point. And of course that started with the CPI data, and of course right now we've got to question will is this a little bit over extended. But you know, one thing is for certain. You know that the dollar has a pretty good inverted relationship with with risky assets, say they're
emerging market stocks. So basically what that says to us is that when interest rates in the US go down, well, risk appetite globally goes goes up and people move the money out of dollars. So we know that. What we don't know is if the market's got the timing right about you know, the interest rate cuts coming from the Federal Reserve next year, are we going to get some pushback up? We're going to get more pushback about that. You know for the next few weeks. Is the data
going to be a little bit more choppy? And I think that's probably what's going to happen. We will get some choppiness there. So we're probably not on a straight line. But it does appear that we are a really pivotabul point, which might just be a little bit more protracted than many people hope it's going to be.
Jane with the multi decades at Robo Bank of Hedging, is there a bet within this range bound market that will allow for acceleration or convexity of moves. Is there inability here to be surprised by big figure moves?
Well, there's always an ability to be a surprise, and you know we've seen a lot of them now. But we know that the central banks are a data dependent and therefore you know, we don't get the forward guidance there for perhaps the more scope to be surprised by all of this. And of course you know you mentioned the elections, this huge amount of elections in twenty twenty four.
I mean, I think it's it's there's a figure like I think countries with a collective population of more than four billion, half of the world's population will go to the polls next year. So it's not just the US. We've got a lot of the EU and Taiwan and so many really pivotal places. So there's a lot of scope I think for you know, excitement to be injected.
Okay, I love this, Jane, give me a big figure move, give me your pair where I can make a Bramo like five six big figure move into June of next year.
I think you probably look at the Swedish chrona for one that's just started to turn around, that had huge amount of weakness street for the last couple of years, that's beginning to turn around, I think, coming back even against the Euro. You know, if we look at the Aussie dollar, if the risk appetite does pick up, and of course that's the big if it will eventually, but you know, this could be a protractive time of the market, you know, trying to pick out and maybe knocks back
from data, knock back from the fad. But perhaps if we go you know, towards the latter half of next year, I think the Aussie will do really quite well because the fundamentals in Australia are really quite good compared with many other countries in the G ten. But of course that necessitates a pick up in China too, So you know, China is going to be a really important part of this risk appetite story and how it emerges in twenty twenty four.
Well, Lisa, that's right where I wanted to go, which is Ausie off Pacific rim going. If I don't know who you play Aussie sing Doll or Aussie China and leave that to adults like Jane Foley, But to me, Australia always has a modest surprise here. Plus they wanted cricket, they'd be such an asull as India. So the long cricket, you go long to Aussie.
I'll leave you to the cricket updates. But just sticking with the Pacific RIM, there is a question if you want a real big surprise, maybe Japan is the way to go. And that's what PIMCO is doing, going into the Yen expecting that maybe a bit of softening in the stance of the FED, and even ray Kut sort of gives an opening to move away from yeld curve control. Are you buying that?
You know, I think it will happen, but I'm still not too excited about the pace. Yes, I mean I think the real story for twenty twenty four will be Yes, more unwinding of view curve control. But it's when are they going to be able to hike interest rates? And I listened really carefully to the comments from New Adia just a couple of weeks ago. He's still really very cautious. And then we had some very disappointing GDP data from Japan.
Of course that's what we need. If we had better growth in Japan, we'd all be a lot more confident that they can move away from from negative interest rates. So we need to watch the economic data, and as long as that's sort of disappointing, I think it's still difficult to get too excited about the pace at which this unwinding net will come. But we have started all Japan has started the process of this unwind from a
very accommodative monetary policy SETU means. What the question is is how fast can they really go?
Jane, Let's get away from G ten, let's go to something different. Finish on this. How does a country experiencing more than one hundred percent inflation get rid of his currency and replace it with the US dollar? Jane, I'm sure you and the team we've given this some thought. How's this going to work in Argentina? If this is the road he wants to go down.
Well, I mean that's what he said, dollarization, you know. And I think what they probably do is probably just use the dollar a lot more in trade at price things in the dollar and just piggyback off the back of the FED much more credible interest rate to ability. So it's just that piggybacking of the Fed as much as they possibly can. But this is not going to be an easy dynamic, as I think we're all aware.
Going to mean nothing easy about this. Jane, Thank you, Jane Furley there of Rabbit Bank.
Full disclosure. I am a member of the cars on Foreign Relations. I can't say enough about his publics service back well to World War Two, starting with the Kenonessa and other great moments along the way. And I remember, I'm going to say, fifteen years ago when the CFI, the consult Foreign Relations are the courage to reinvent themselves digitally. It is one of the greatest successes in anything we
do this in international relations. The website of the Consolan Foreign Relations, which is the foundational intellectual input of Richard Has. So what do you do when has exit? The joy is it's Michael froman president of the Consulate Foreign Relations to say he's former US trade representative, barely describes the miles he has clocked on airplanes for this nation. Michael, just thrilled you could join us this morning. Congratulations on
the new effort with the Consolen Foreign Relations. It's a little busy out there, Michael. What are you focused on right now?
Well, we see the return of great power politics with Russia at war. The emergence of a competition, multi dimension competition with China, and of course you've got the war in the Middle East breaking out, and global issues like pandemics and climate change still to deal with. So there are a lot of issues on the global agenda, a lot of demands for cooperation and collaboration, precisely at a time when there's also a lot of fragmentation.
So it's a very challenging period.
There is a bipartisan toned the console on foreign relations. In this new Foreign Affairs magazine, your work with President Obama. There's mister Gates, Secretary of Defense, with an important essay in your Foreign Affairs magazine. Is it a bipartisan debate in Washington or is our politics so fractured we're not having a normal CFR debate?
Well, clearly the country is more polarized politically than it's ever been. I think when it comes to foreign policy national security, there is a bit more of a non partisan or bipartisan debate going on. The center left and the center right, I think share a fair number of perspectives, and of course then there are a wide range of perspectives in both parties as well. But right now, whether
it's Ukraine or the Middle East. I think the majority of both parties are very focused on providing the necessary support, and when it comes to an issue like China, there's a very strong bipartisan consensus that we need to be very firm with China and reset the relationship.
Focus on that master of proman. Just taking a look at what happened last week, do you think it truly was more of a success than maybe many people are giving it credit for.
I think it was a success in that the goal was to stabilize the relationship heading into twenty twenty four, when you have elections in Taiwan and elections in the United States where the China issue.
Is clearly going to play a role.
And I think they both achieve that in terms of not just talking because we shouldn't can views a meeting or a conversation with actual progress. But they did make actual progress on issues like military to military conflict management, on fentanyl, on climate change, and on really trying to reset the relationship going into next year. So President she gave a speech in San Francisco which frankly could have been given seven or ten years ago. There was no
wolf Warrior diplomacy in evidence. There was no reference to the challenges and conflicts that have defined the relationship over the last few years. And I think there's a real effort on their part for their own reasons that the Chinese wanted to make sure that we have a more benign international environment looking ahead.
They want the appearance of at least some sort of back to the future and when it comes to the business climate, but there's a real question about how much that really carries through. There was a little discussion about them buddying up with Iran as well as North Korea, and particularly siding with them with respect to c and
issues in Ukraine as well as in Israel. Today Russian delegates excuse me, Chinese delegates are meeting with urban nations to try to discuss what's going to happen in Israel. Do we have a sense of where they stand on this, of what they are going to argue for.
I think China is trying to figure out what its global role is beyond economics. It did play a role in witnessing the normalization of relations a bit between Iran and Saudi Arabia. That was a limited agreement around not bombing Saudi oil infrastructure it has offered its help in Ukraine, but given the fact that it has a friendship without limits with Russia, that help is not being particularly welcomed
by the Ukrainians. And in the Middle East, of course, I imagine the parties in the region will be seeking out support wherever they can, and capitals around the world, including in China, I think to the degree that they can play a constructive role.
Of course it should be welcomed.
But that means really playing a role in providing a public good that they've never really done before. China has been amazingly disciplined about pursuing its national interests narrowly defined, and if they really want to be a global power, then they also have to help provide for some of the public good.
Michael, you are more identified with TPP than anyone I know. The failure of Transpacific Partnership something you work on. The fact is we are deploying four military basis to the Philippines, two in Kegayon Isabella and that long skinny island down towards the South China Sea Palawan. Is our military doing TPP for us? Is that the actual TPP is the military expansion of America to the Pacific RIM.
I think one thing that's clear is that the more that China asserts itself across the region, the more the countries in the region want the US to be present and engaged. And they're looking for our engagement in a military security sense, in a political dimension, but also in an economic dimension. This is the most economically dynamic region of the world, and they desperately want the US to be engaged there, not just as a military power, but also as an economic power.
Michael Froman again congratulations new duties at the Council on Foreign Relations. He is the President of the cf Subscribe to the Bloomberg Surveillance podcast on Apple, Spotify and anywhere else you get your podcasts. Listen live every weekday starting at seven am Eastern on Bloomberg dot Com, the iHeartRadio app, tune In, and the Bloomberg Business app. You can watch us live on Bloomberg Television and always. I'm the Bloomberg Terminal.
Thanks for listening. I'm Tom Keen, and this is Bloomberg