This is the Bloomberg Surveillance Podcast. I'm Paul Sweeney along with Tom Keene. Join us each day for insight from the best in economics, geopolitics, finance, and investment. You can also watch the show live on YouTube. Visit the Bloomberg Podcast channel on YouTube to see the show weekday mornings from seven to ten Eastern Remark Global Headquarters at New York City. Subscribe to the podcast on Apple, Spotify, or anywhere else you listen, and as always on Bloomberg Radio,
the Bloomberg Terminal, and the Bloomberg Business App. I don't know what's happening here. This economy looks darnstrong. We got some data last week, particularly the jobs front, that just shows you how strong the economy is, and it just kind of getting people increasingly saying, maybe this feeder reserve does not have to.
Rush too much.
Let's check in with somebody who who knows this stuff better than we do. Jennifer Lee, Senior economist and Managing director at BIMO Capital Markets. Hey, Jennifer, we got some really strong economic data last week. I mean that jobs report just kind of blew out expectations, and then we have to fit chair. Last night before the Grammy's on sixty minutes saying there were no rush to really cut rates here? What do you think the Fed is kind
of doing? Here is a digest a lot of this economic data we've been getting.
Well, good morning, and thanks for having me on. I got to tell you, it's like, just a few minutes after that number came out on Friday, my first thought was, are we even talking about rate cuts anymore? I mean, do we even need to? I mean, that's I'm glad that I'm not the only one I was thinking that
way because I thought, what am I missing? But I think it's it's the whole you know, those keywords of being patient and what was that where that he kept using over and over again after during his press conference was being confident and being confident that inflation is coming down to two percent, etcetera, etcetera. He needs, They need a lot more confidence that you know that that inflation again is coming back down to target before they actually start to raise rates and of course or start to
cut rates. And of course this kind of number throws I think everyone off, you know, off completely, so you have to sort of, you know, read it, get this a little bit. Reading the communications a little bit, but sort of keep the story on path about rate cuts coming, but just not sooner rather than not, but later, of course, not rather than sooner.
Yeah, Jennifer, recalibrating those rate cut expectations. When do you think the Fed start to pull the trigger. I'm just looking at the warp function WRP on the terminal pricing in right now, in June than July and September. What are you making of that?
Yes, that sounds good to me. So we haven't you know, we were again, we were debating this on Friday as well, but we're going to stick to our July rate cut for the for the first move. You know, we had always, you know, wondered what we were missing, why the market was thinking about March. But you know, I'm glad, I'm actually quite glad that fencechair pell sort of put all those concerns to rest went by dismissing March last week.
But we're going to stick with our July rate cut to be the first move, and then four moves in total during the years, so one hundred basis points in total for twenty twenty four.
Hey, Jennifer, you're looking around the world and it seems like the US economy is kind of the exception.
Here rather than a rule.
We've got continued weakness in Europe, even including the you know, obviously the most important economy over there being Germany. China just well below expectations. Does this surprise you that maybe the US is doing as well as it is, giving that its main trading partners aren't.
A little bit I'm gonna say, I'm gonna make that a little bit makes me a little bit concerned. At the same time, you know, again, I'm just always wondering, you know, what's what's going to come down next? Is going to throw everybody off. But you know, it gives support to the IMF last week and the OCD this morning, you know, raising their global growth prodcasts for this year and sort of study for twenty twenty five on the back of a strong resilient US economy. Remarkably resilient, I
think was what the IMF called it. And meanwtime, you know, it's and it stands and start contrast with what we're seeing in China. But you know, roughly four and a half percent growth this year in Europe, which I think is just barely just struggling to even grow. You know, we're looking for about a half percentage point increase this year. And that also shows up when you're looking at the
different central banks. You've got the FED who's still again talking about great cuts but being but sort of pushing it off the start date further off into the distance. You've got the ECB debating, you know, whether or not they're probably going to go in June, by the way, and then of course the Big of England who just ditched their tightening bias and Governor Bailey said that point blank, and now they're talking about when rates are going to
come down. So it's a very much different discussion is taking place around the world among central banks.
Jennifer ben Emmons just told us basically kind of reiterating j Powell's point that the bigger concern, biggest concern, if you will, is geopolitical risk. How are you taking that into account? Just given the continuing wars going on across the pond, that.
Is probably one of those, you know, those big sources of uncertainty that you know that all the data in the world are not going to be able to predict. You know, you've got not only just like the actual war itself, but of course the economic impact in terms
of inflationary impact. You know, it may not be what we saw back you know, in terms of supply chain issues, not what we saw back in the during the pandemic, but it's still having an impact, especially with you know, very few ships going through the Red Sea nowadays and going around Africa instead to get from Europe to China or around the other way around. So that's adding another
ten days last time I checked. You know, all the ships are all using oil as well, so it's all it's not an ev it's not you know, they're not using battery batteries to runder ships. So this is all potentially inflationary, not as much as what we saw back in twenty twenty, of course, but this adds a lot of pressure I think on what center banks are watching again, not only just the word themselves, but the economic impact.
Jennifer, I've seen the US dollars kind of rallying here a little bit in the last several weeks, I guess, expectations that maybe the FED won't be as aggressive as maybe we originally thought and cutting rates here. How do you think about the currency markets and the dollar here?
So the current America has been like the one of the most toughest things to call over the past few years. It's it's been always, at least last few years, it has been very much of a strong US dollar story. Now this year, we're still looking for the US dollars to weekend some much just you know, in theory, when you know the Fed starting to cut rates, that should take some of the wind out of the US dollars sales. But you know, I think I said this before. I
think it's all about perception. If all the economies around the world are slowing, but the US is slowing the leads or at the slowest pace, if you know what I mean. You know, I think that would actually give support to the US dollars. So even though it's going to you know, we look for the green back to weaken somewhat, I don't think it's gonna be weakening as much as we had originally anticipated, say a half a year ago.
With payrolls out of the way, with as Paul pointed out, uh J. Powell kind of kicking off Grammy's Night, what's next?
What is on? What are you looking forward to?
What do you have in the days weeks ahead that can really drive this market.
I think it's going to I mean, it's not like a work a record, but it's all going to be coming back down to data, all the keys, all the key numbers. We can't only just look at, just like with payrolls, you know, you can't just look at this one report on its own. But it's for the inflation
data for sure. We're looking at CPI and even producer prices just as an indicator of prices coming through the pipeline, and certainly the PC de flavors, and of course consumer spending, the all important consumer spending numbers again not just retail sales, but the all inclusive PC report, just to see how broader spending patterns are. You know, I think overall, you as long as you have strong jobs, you're still going
to see solid fundamentals below. The US consumer, you know, they don't have to spend spend all their all their hard ar and serving the savings right away. But at the same time, it gives them support that it puts them away for a rainy day, and that will help them, you know, that will actually help support the US economy going forward, as opposed to you know, just having everything spent all in one quarter.
All right, Jennifer, thank you very much, As always, Jennifer Lee. She's a senior economist managing director of PEMO Capital Markets, located up there in Toronto. Nobody better to talk to geopolitics than Mick Molroy. He's a co founder of the Lobo Institute. The Lobo Institute consults, advisors and teachers on current and future conflicts.
His resume is just extraordinary.
Former Deputy Assistant Secretary of Defense for the Middle East at the US Department of Defense, former Paramilitary Operations officer at CIA, I've heard of them, and a former US Marine Infantry officer for like I know, twenty six years. We thank him very much for his military service. McK moulroy joins us. Hey, Mick, it's heating up. Perhaps. I think the risk for a lot of folks shares we think about the Middle East is seems like the scope
heare might be expanding. Where are we right now and what are the risks do you think in that part of the world.
Great to be with you, guys, and I just returned from Israel, where I was in a lot of discussions on these things, these topics, and of course Secretary Blanken is in the region right now and he's going to be pushed on several things. Of course, specifically to the war in Gaza. He's going to be talking about the needs of transition to a lower intensity combative situation, and of course Israel still has their strategic aim to military league defeat Hamas, but that is not going to be
done anytime soon. He's going to be talking about the need for increasing umanitarian aid. And then to the point of her question, this is a conflict that has already expanded across the region with the Huthis attacks in the Red Sea, in the Gulf of Aden and the near continuous attacks on our forces in Syria and Iraq. That might continue and might have to be even more of
a substantial response that we've seen in so far. So there is and then lastly, i'd say when it comes to expansion, there's always a concern of Hezbollah in Lebanon and expanding that to include two front war in Israel. So this is something that is it's a tinderbox. I would argue that it's already happening. The question is whether we can invent this from becoming a war that's directly between the United States in Iran, and that's to be determined.
I would say, yeah, what canon should be done in your view to prevent that from happening.
So there's a fine balance when it comes to our responses to these attacks, for example, both against commercial shipping and our very naval forces that are there, and then these continuous attacks against our positions in Iraq and Syria.
I think the administration has now decided that they have to be more forceable because they're obviously not reaching the level deterrence that they wanted, and those attacks are now going after I think IRGC positions, that's the Iranian Special Operation Forces that works with the APPROXY forces in Syria and Iraq, but it might eventually include targets in Iran.
And I think the non answer from National Security Advisor Sullivan recently on the television when he was asked that question is means to me that they are looking at that in the future if they cannot do deterrence any other way.
In terms of deterrence, Mick, you know better than anybody kind of the assets the US has in that part of the world. Do we have the assets and capabilities to really deal a serious blow to the Huthis and try to get some control back in that part of the world, whether it's the Red Sea in other parts.
Yes, we do. We have not only the assets that we've pushed to the region, but we have considerable assets for example in Ledade, in Qatar, in Baharain with our fifth Fleet of Central Command. And we of course have the ability to project power better than any country in the world, perhaps in history, so we can we have the assets that we can certainly surge to get more assets there. The question is what is the balance between responding forcefully enough to get Ran to change its calculation
when it comes to their support for proxies. And yes, they have different levels of controls of each of these proxy forces, but ultimately they keep providing the very weapons that are being launched at our troops. So I think the indicator of whether we have reached deterrence is if that stops. And I also would say that if it continues, that means they intend these weapons to be used against our forces, which to me means they're complicit in these attacks.
And Nick, we were talking to one of our DC editors a minute ago about some of the aids and hurdles that are going on on Capitol Hill. How does that impact what's going on with Israel, Ukraine, Taiwan and China.
So they are tying of course, as you know, a lot of these security assistant packages together. So Ukraine absolutely need to continue to support Ukraine. They are decimating one of our most significant adversaries in Russia, right, So that is something that I think is clearly at the United States interest. It isn't charity. Obviously we should also support
partners because that's what good partners do. But this is also on our interest and that shows, like Taiwan and China, that we are a good partner and we stick with our partners. So I think how we act with Ukraine will have an effect on China and a Taiwan situation.
And of course the aid specifically for the Middle East, it's both for Israel and at last I've read is like a ten billion dollar ear mark for Gaza when it comes to humanitarian aid, and I would assume that it would also be for reconstruction after the end of combat operations. All of those things are incredibly important both to support a partner in Israel, but also to really recognize the level of a human crisis. That's going on
in Gaza right now. There needs to be much more humanitarian aid going in there, and it's going to be needed for the foreseeable future. But there also needs to be a reconstruction effort, as Gaza itself has been essentially decimated.
Heynck, I'm probably like a lot of people in that the news flow coming out of the Middle East has kind of pushed Ukraine on the.
Back burner a little bit.
Can you give us an updated assessment from you know, your sources about how this thing can play out here? I mean, are we gearing up for another spring offensive? I'll be back into that narrative. Is there any sense that there can be some movement? It's been such a long time now.
Right so we are at somewhat of an impass, somewhat of a stalemate, if you will. But it's important to point out a stalemate doesn't mean that the fighting hasn't subsided. There's considerable fighting going on in Russia is losing a lot of soldiers and equipment every day. I think what Putin is looking at right now. President Putin's looking at our level of support and what if anything would change if they're in the presidential election. That is what he's
hoping on that we cut our aid. Obviously, the European Union, our European allies have stepped up and need to continue to step up, but the United States also needs to match that. It's very imperative that I think the Ukrainians get these significant weapons systems like the F sixteen fighter jet, like long range artillery the attackers. That is really what's needed for them to have an effect, be able to go and continue on this counter offensive and take back
to Rain. If they don't have that, it's essentially going to continue in this stalemate. It's going to be a tick to tack for a long time, which of course we don't want. We want them to start making gains. We want to help them start making gains so they push putin into a corner where he is looking for an exit ramp right now, he's waiting to see what we do.
Yeah, all right, very good, Nick, Thanks so much for joining us. Always appreciate getting the benefit of your wisdom and experience. Mick Molroy, he's a co founder of the Lobo Institute, a career full of international experience here on geopolitics, and boy, there's a lot to talk about.
Right now, Let's go to Laurie Cavacina or Cavasina.
She's head of US equity strategy at OURBC Capital Markets Royal Bank at Canada.
But we've got the Canadian banks covered today.
Hey, Laurie, thanks so much for joining us here. You know, I'd love to get your perspective on the market snapshot right here. We had a really strong November December for risk guss at stocks, bonds ripping, a decent January. I mean, let's let's let's be honest. Do I just keep riding this thing? Do I just keep writing the big names that have worked for me?
What do I do here?
Right?
So thanks for having me look. I think to some extent depends on your time horizon and your risk profile. I think the big move in November December was absolutely deserved. We baked in a lot of good news on twenty twenty four, including the idea that the FED is going to start cutting I think that January we saw, you know,
sort of the markets do well for interesting reasons. We saw the bond yi old move back up if you look at the ten year and that really supported the growth side of the trade, which is the bigger you know, market cap weight in the index. So it kind of brought an end to the broadening out that had gotten people excited in November and December. But we went up for slightly different reasons, and I don't actually think that earnings has given us too much of a reason to
go up. Nevertheless, the market has kind of muddled through. I think where we sit today is sentiments at a particularly sort of stretched point. That being said, my work does suggest that valuation should be supportive at the end of the year, that as inflation continues to moderate, if we get better economic data in the back half of the year and interest rates come down just a little bit, we can support a pretty robust pe multiple in the market.
So I think we may have to ride out some volatility. I think we're going to pay the price for all that you know, big move that we had in November through January. But I think you wouldn't want to buy that dip. So again, are you going to try to play for every little tactical turn or you're just going to kind of, you know, ignore the noise. Most people I talked to you are probably in the latter camp, and.
Laurier when you're looking at buying the dip is that on individual stocks, are we looking at buying? You know, the cues if we see the NASDAC come under some pressure.
So you know, I've given edge to small caps and value on the year, and I do think that the Magnificent seven, I guess now we're talking about the top five. You know, I think they've outperformed for very good reasons. That being said, I think valuations are highly stretched. If you look at the top ten names in the S
and P five hundred, we're sitting at peak valuation. If you look at positioning, crowding on the CFTC data, if you basically just look at what is owned in the Nasdaq futures in terms of byside positioning, we've actually broken above twenty thirteen twenty fifteen highs. So I think we look quite stretched. And I think you look at things like small caps where the valuations are about average, You've got positioned at three year highs but nowhere close to
all time highs. I think you've got a lot more room there to run. I do think for that part of the market and this broadening out to really work, you've got to see economic expectations improved. So far, we're only seeing people really inch up one que numbers. We're not really seeing a broader improvement in twenty twenty four numbers as a whole, and you really need the ladder
to get that broadening trade to work. I'm in the camp it probably can simply because I think economics xations have been consistently too low and I think we're in kind of a post crisis PTSD in the economics community.
So, Laurier, when you screen this market here, are there any sectors that kind of jump out of you as either really attract them on a momentum basis of value basis kind of what are you talking to your clients about these days?
So I think sectors are really tough. I think that you're more looking at opportunities in individual names and industries within sectors. That being said, I'm a strategist, so it's my job to pick sectors. I still think financials look really interesting here, and the reality is is that the market is not going to broaden out unless the financials participate.
But I think you've got good valuations. You've actually started to see improving earning's revision trends, and this is also a sector that does well when the animal spirits are coming back in the economy. I would also point people to things like utilities and healthcare if we're really going to have start a shorter term pullback in the market. I think you've got pretty reasonable valuations there. And I
also like energy as a hedge in my portfolio. It's a sector that really, you know, is a beneficiarrea of ramping inflation and ramping interest rates. We think those things are going to reverse this year, but if there's a risk that we're wrong, we love the valuations there and just kind of putting all macro aside. We love the
dividend yields. We think there's a lot more discipline in that part of the market, and so there's a lot more interesting stuff at the stock level if you can kind of get away from some of the big macro trades.
Well, looking at you're mentioning, you know, financials and energy, different kind of drivers there.
Right.
One of the things we were talking about was the exposure to China and how china kind of revamp could drive the likes of energy and some other parts of the market.
How do you think about.
Deploying capital here in the US with some of those geopolitical concerns and uncertainty still at hand.
So I would say whenever China comes up as a big risk factor, it feels like tech is the first area people look at in terms of having some exposure in the risk and a second one, frankly is materials. And that's because if you run screens of companies with high exposure to China, there aren't a ton of you know, not every company discloses all their country level revenue, but we see we tend to see those sectors pop up quite a bit. So I would say those are two
areas to think about. I think consumer staples is another one that you can think about. We often, you know, see greater disclosure on the geographical revenue in that space as well.
We're about two hundred and thirty companies out of the S and P five hundred have reported here any any kind of themes you see here.
LORII, so far.
Sure.
So we read a lot of transcripts. On my team, we've been writing up, you know, sort of what what we we think is going on, you know, at the end of each week, and we'll piece it all together at the end. But I would say the most interesting thing I've seen is number one commentary around the FED generally seems to be emphasizing the positives associated with the fed's pivot in the fall or or you know, the fourth quarter, or the benefits of just having greater certainty
in the monetary policy outlooks. So that's one thing that's jumped out. The second thing that's hunt out is that all the macro backdrop outlook discussions there are kind of two camps, the people who are tilting positive and the people who are tilting negative. I was kind of surprised one company last week, actually, I mean, they just kind of went down the deep rabbit hole of all the risks we've got out there and used the word dismal to describe the whole thing, and that seemed a little
extreme to me. I think things are a little bit more balanced, But I'll tell you at the beginning of last week, I was sort of struck by the fact that clients I was talking to seemed a little bit
more in doubt on the soft landing thesis. And that's been a shift from what I've observed in recent months, where it felt like the soft landing crowd was really growing and I just sort of looked at all these comments that were coming in from the companies and saying, well, the fact that corporate America is not exactly on the same page and you're just getting such a murky, muddled outlook discussion. I felt like that was starting to take
a toll on investors themselves. Then, of course, we got just a rash of positive economic data mid to late weeks, So we'll see what my conversations are like this week. But I do think it's had an impact, to be honest.
You know, Laurie, just crossing the Bloomberg terminal right now is a headline SNAP plans to cut global headcount by about ten percent, And it seems like we've had, you know, more than a handful of these announcements over the last several weeks, and it kind of reminds me of this exact time last year, when we had some of these big tech companies announcing layoffs and then at the end of the day, the job market was just as strong
as it's ever been. So when you see an headline like SNAP cutting global headcamp by ten percent, plus all the other headlines we've seen over the last several weeks, how do you kind of put that into context.
It's a great question we did. We spend a lot of time looking at the challenger data, and I'll just give you the disclaimer, I'm not an economist, so don't hold my feet to the fire. But you know what we've kind of stumbled on something last year, which is that if you looked at the industrial sector, the layoffs were pretty minimal. And we think that was because back in COVID in twenty twenty, they did GFC style you know, or sized layoffs, similar kinds of layoffs to what they
did back in the tech bubble. Just really some of the most extreme periods of layoffs that have happened in industrials. The COVID layoffs match that. But then you look at financials, you look at technology, these sectors where they sent everyone to work from home during the pandemic, they don't really
do that many layoffs. And so we think whether we were looking last year in the first quarter at all the tech layoffs, or if we're looking at the tech and financial layoffs that have been going on, you know, so far this year, it's really because there wasn't a lot of cleanup in those industries that happened during the COVID period, so there's kind of a pin up need to restructure and right size the businesses. I am watching
what's going on with industrials really closely. We're not seeing the major breakout in those layoffs yet, but we do want to keep an eye on that because we have had a few companies come out and talk about that. For now, the Challenger data is telling me to kind of ignore the news headlines a little bit, that it's still fairly concentrated in these sectors that had some overdue cleanup. But again, we do have to watch you just make sure that's not brought me out.
Yeah, no, you mentioned the potential for overdue cleanup. What are the things that had come up on a call with an investor a few weeks ago? Was he basically said, in his view, these job cuts are a way of expanding margins. So that's one thing to keep an eye on.
All Right, Lurie, thanks so much for joining us.
Lori Calvacina, she is head of equity strategy at RBC Capital Markets. All Right, today's firm pritage headlines, Alis Matteo, what stories do you have for us here this morning?
Sure, we're starting with the Financial Times. It says Iran using two of the UK's biggest banks to evade sanctions. Now, this is documents that the Financial Time saw. It says Lloyd's and Santanti UK it provided accounts of bridges to British front companies secretly owned by a sanctioned Iranian petrochemicals company that was actually based near Buckingham Palace. Now let
me break it down for you. It's petrochemical commercial company and that was part of a network that the US accuses of raising hundreds of millions of dollars for part of the Iranian Revolutionary Guards Corps and also working with Russian intelligence agencies to raise money for Iranian proxy militias. This is a lot to take in. But the petrochemicals company, it's British subsidiary. They've been under US sanctioned since November
of twoenty eighteen. That's what they're looking at. So these documents are showing that since then, this company has used companies in the UK to receive funds from Iranium front as and he's in China while hiding their real ownership through quote trustee agreements. It gets a little confusing, but the main gist of this is it's all coming because you have the Royal Air Force. They're joining the US
air strikes against Iranian back hoothy rebels and Yemen. So it's a lot to take in as this right now is going on.
I mean, these are real banks, real names. I mean, you know Lloyd's Banking Group. Sometimes they're the Bigture. I mean, these are major institutions here. So they're supposed to be complying with these sanctions, correct, correct.
But that's they were supposed to be since twenty eighteen. But now they're saying, well that might not have happened.
And they're saying basically, we can't come in on individual accounts.
Right, okay, all right, well very good. What's next?
All right, so we're going to the Wall Street Journal. They're talking about Spotify accounts. This I didn't know. So if you have a shared music account Loggin because you don't want to dish out the extra cash for the premium accounts. It's caused a lot of family battles because when you play your music. Let's say I'm listening to some soothing, you know whatever music, and all of a sudden,
Metallica starts blasting, you know it switches things over. It's because someone on your shared account change the music.
Do you have Spotify?
I don't have Spotify. I have I have the free account, so so I can't relate.
He's the demo here?
Do you got too much money on it? If the Apple Family Plan? Because so with Spotify, my understanding is if my dad plays Metallica, Metallica comes from my phone. With Apple, if we share an account and I'm listening to say Zach Bryan, my dad starts playing Metallica, my music stops playing. So after going back and forth and I'm paying for it, I was kind of like, hey, dad, you've covered a lot of things.
I got the Family Plan.
Just make sure you use it because it's fifteen bucks a month, so it's not nine ninety nine.
So all right, so you have Apple, I have Apple on Apples and so if one if a feat is playing for one person, you as the second person, don't get your feet, you get nothing.
So if we're both.
So there's only one feet at a time, it kept me simultaneous feeds.
Going to all the family members, so I'd be on a walk.
Well, with the family Plan, you're playing paying for separate accounts, so it's slightly different.
But if we're.
Sharing my individual sharing individual, and I'm listening to music on a walk and my dad presses play, he overrides me, and if I press play, I override him.
Well, that's probably the way Apple and Spotify want it, because they don't want you sharing, right, they.
Want you to pay for the bat pay for the family plan. The dumb thing is is that I pay for Apple Music and my fiance pays for Spotify because she likes their playlists. So we're supporting two companies spending Probably I don't want to know what the banker in you says, but I probably shouldn't.
Be doing well.
Yeah, well, I listened to free over there radio since I took fifteen radio companies public back in the day. But and maybe a little satellite serious XM kind of thing.
That's it. But I'm not paying. I don't know.
It's just causing problems because you have like yoga instructors who are doing a class and then all of a sudden, their husband clicks in and their yoga class.
That's a great part of that delicious though.
That's my question.
How would you Well, she's the other story in the Wall Street Journal this yoga instructor kicked her husband off or both boyfriend off. You've done because anyway she came and your dad exactly all right, Now I am. I stand for my five hour shift and radio, yes, five hours, you know, breaking every union rule in the book.
And I think that's better. But I don't know what do you? What do you got?
You got a story here from the Washington Post, And you're right, it is.
Better because I always admired you for that.
I was like, man, I when I was managing a business in Bloomberg, we had to pay. There's a period of time, maybe six, seven, eight, nine years ago when all the rage was getting the stand up desk, so everybody wanted to stand this. That's fine, but it costs me like two three thousand dollars to my budget every time we had to install. And I'm like, and the kids would do it for like a day or two then go back to sitting.
But it is, it's and the research shows it. So this is from the Washington Post. It says people who spend most of their worktime sitting were found to be at least sixteen percent more likely to die earlier than normal than those who don't. Sit as much, and so the sitters there risk from dying cardi vascular disease. It was thirty four percent higher than non sitters. So you
see the difference there. How can you help well, they say to add more leisure time physical activity, So go home, maybe hop on the peloton for it says fifteen to thirty minutes a day. Back and help out all right, standing tables. Like you were talking about taking a break every thirty minutes. I know my watch tells me when I have.
Just when I'm back.
When I'm standing too much.
I'll tell you, hey, Rich, I get take a break, buddy.
Yeah, you can tell them take a break, and it says take a break every thirty minutes, Paul.
So there, yeah, go okay, it's well Tom he comes back.
So we're gonna have to work that into the holes. Are you a stand or standing.
In the standing desk? I bounce back and forth. I do want one of the treadmills, though. I have friends who are with the big work from home. They have the treadmill. You have it go like a mile and a half an hour, so nothing too crazy, but you're getting steps in.
This is the Bloomberg surveillance podcast, bringing you the best in economics, geopolitics, finance, and investment. You can also watch the show live on YouTube. Visit the Bloomberg Podcast channel on YouTube to see the show weekday mornings from seven to ten Eastern from our global headquarters in New York City. Subscribe to the podcast on Apple, Spotify, or anywhere else you listen, and as always on Bloomberg Radio, the Bloomberg Terminal, and the Bloomberg Business app.