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We now turn to Claudia sam without question my Economists of the Year for two twenty five or impact her informed debate off the Simmer role. Of course, all of it, you know, really focused on Jackson Hole, and she had a dinner at Jackson Hole, folks. I couldn't go to it because a golf stream was leaving Dodge. But Claudia Sim with huge influence here in twenty twenty four, so I got to go just to the ratios and I look at the unemployment rate four point one percent, the
quiescence there. The revisions are a little more less enthusiastic than maybe what we saw twenty nine days ago. I'm just looking at you know, there's eight nine six statistics here, manufacturing payrolls negative six thousand, and the revision features up twenty three, now up twenty there's a little bit of a pullback, and the equity MARKETSIVIX twenty two point zero eight. Paul Sweeney always going to the two year yeo Apolic comes in with a vengeance.
Here, that's the point one two percent.
Yeah, four point one two percent.
So again the revision's time just from the last month, changing non farm payrolls, we were at two fifty four now revised down to two twenty three, so a little bit weaker. But again the headline today twelve thousand changing non farm payrolls. Consensus was one hundred thousand. But again the economists have been warning us that, you know, we had the hurricanes, we've got some various strikes, and that's going to make this number, you know, a little bit tough.
This Yeah, and again the net revision is a negative one twelve.
So it's easy math.
I take twelve thousand positive minus one twelve is a negative one hundred thousand. Claudius sim is going, and why am I dealing with these financial media tools, she joins us right now, I mean the value here, Claudie, is going to be am I correct massive revisions thirty sixty even ninety days out.
When not even necessarily revisions, we could just see next month's number be a big, strong positive, right, kind of unwinded. They're really we had two major hurricanes and we had a strike happening in the period that we're trying to measure jobs. It probably really was a hit to the jobs. Now, I will say I feel pre vindicated. My substack piece this week that was the preview for this was talking about this could be our negative payroll print, and it's
it's not negative. So I was wrong on that one, but it is this was a low print. And the argument there is even if we had even if like the reality is we're kind of moving along at trend growth, which is a little under two hundred thousand, like that was the pace before the pandemic. Well, you get one hundred thousand knocked off because of hurricanes and the strike, which was Governor Chris Waller's as sestimate of what that effect would be. And then you take into account that
these are survey estimates, they are imprecise. The BLS tells us that always the confidence interval around an estimate is over one hundred thousand jobs. So we really that number, that twelve thousand we got today that could be entirely consistent with the labor market that's growing at Trent and frankly, the un employment rate staying low. That really goes in that court.
Let me get out that.
This was more disruptions.
Let me get out front.
It's November one, so it's not tacky. If I was saying she was our economist of the Year in September, that would be tacky.
But come on November one.
Neil Dutta last year killed it with his optimism on three percentage GDP. Claudius, I'm killed it this year, charging the debate here on our labor economy. She's a New Century Advisors, Claudius, I'm SIA next month joining us right now in studio Ellen Zenner, she runs an Apple iPhone Like no one do you need an iPhone sixteen to go through the data faster?
Now normally going this.
Is my work phone.
I am a Android Samsummer.
Yeah, I'm that age guys.
Yeah, as I'm forced to use an iPhone and I only know how to check email slow motion.
Lisa Shllett has the iPhone sixteen pro Ellen Center with us now, of course, with Morgan Stanley's Global Investment Office. You linked consumption into labor like nobody I know. We had a buoyant consumption number are we taking it all from savings and is it a fake labor economy?
No, not at all.
I mean, look, new data that we got some weeks ago showed that it turns out we've spent a lot more than we thought, and savings was still higher because income numbers are just been revised up that much.
So we still got income that's really robust.
And I agree with Claudia that there is still a lot of disruption in these numbers, and this probably is consistent with a labor market growing at trend, and so we're still producing enough income to support consumption. I mean, look at consumption of lower income consumers. They are really going to love these lower gas prices that frees up a lot of buying power as well. So still yeah, yeah, and wage growth is still healthy while inflation's coming down.
So you got real wages that are positive, You've got gas prices that are lower, and so you're getting some support coming back for lower income households as well.
So you mentioned the average hourly earnings on a year of a year basis four percent. That's pretty solid, right, I mean, give us a sense of historically where that number typically comes in.
Well, that number, so look average hourly earnings in this report. It's a tiny sample and it can be distorted from month to month depending on what hours worked do so it's a calculation thing. And so four percent average dollity earnings on you over your basis, you would say, gosh, that's a little bit higher than what would be consistent with the fed's two percent goal. But you look, I'll get the Employment Cost Index, which came out this week.
That was Yellen's favorite measure. It continues to be the Fed's favorite measures moment. It's a much more comprehensive measure of wages and labor costs. And that is absolutely right now consistent with the fed's two percentle which means that yes it is.
It is healthy. So you're right, it's healthy, but it's not too.
Amazing, not too fast. I'm bringing it up while you're talking.
ECI from five percent five percent into three point nine percent year of year nowhere near back to two point seventy five percent, sort of pre pandemic as well. You know, we should talk to her about hourly earnings. In the effect of the Yankees defense, I.
Mean, and I want to talk about the Yankees, I can't. I turned it off at the eighth inning on Monday. I turned it off in that last game.
I was just I was disgusted.
I choose a third row with Ellen.
What do you think this Federal Reserve should do with data like this?
Here to any other data we've seen over the last several weeks as a get together, next week cut cut?
Yeah?
How much?
Yeah? Twenty five?
Okay, Yeah, the the the economy's fine. And every time we get great data, the market wants to pressure and say, well, the Fed doesn't need to do more here, but what is cheripalganas stress next week? Yeah, the economy is fine, the economy is great, so let's keep it there. Let's keep it there. And look, we've got ample room to cut. We don't know where neutral is, so we're going to
baby step it there. I mean, they're in a great position, having started the cutting cycle before the election, so they're in a great position. If there's some something that impacts the outlook for the economy, you can speed up rate cuts easily, you can pull rate cuts forward. I'm more in the camp of the risk of more than less from the Fed.
We are so thrilled, folks, So this job stay covers.
You have Claudia sim with wis constant hundred before with Eiu and to have doctor Sam with us, and then Ellen Zendner Lizaye Saunders is on deck looking at the equity market response, particularly out beyond the election, and then Ira Jersey will uh show up with us? We don't care at all what Irah thinks all we want to do is talk about Astonville.
I thought it was all you.
Want to do is have a man on the show, because it's an all woman This is the all woman warning.
You know, I don't think there's any you know, we didn't do that diversity.
It's about diversity.
We it just worked out that way.
How I would it just so happens all the women are the experts. It just worked out that way.
As tough as.
Nails, Ellen, How about the consumer here? I mean the consumers employed, the consumers getting wage gains, inflation's coming down.
How do you feel about the US consumer these days?
I think the used consumers is it's I would say great, except that we still have a lot of our eggs in one basket. The wealthy consumer is still driving the majority of spending. But but like I said, I'm encouraged at some of the developments for lower income groups that we're continuing to create jobs, wages are growing.
This is import We're going to stop here, gas price. This is really.
Important, folks. We're going to take the Morgan Stanley continuum me here right now, let's take it into death siles tenth of economy. The pandemic stereotype is the rich did well, no surprise there, and the lower one and two death siles were benefited because they were taking care of the rich. What does that death sile construction look like into Q one twenty twenty.
Five, so well, the hope is that that the spending is diffused more across those death siles. So before COVID, the top the top quintiles, so the top two death stiles represented about forty percent of consumer spending. That bumped up to forty five percent of consumer spending. And it's stayed there.
It's still there.
It's still there.
The top two quintiles are more than sixty percent of consumer spending. And so what you want to see is we start to have some share come back to lower income households because they're contributing more broadly to consumers.
But you haven't seen this yet. Into the election.
Haven't seen it yet, right, and that's important right into the election. Yes, we haven't seen any to interpolate.
Those death sile analysis to say that the haves have a GDP of four or five six percent real GDP and the have nots are near recession.
Well, the have nots have been in recession for a couple of years. I would say that they're emerging from that. What delayed them moving into recession was that incredible savings cushion that they received when we put in all the stimulus during COVID. Once they spent through that savings, but still we're dealing with extraordinarily high rent inflation, food inflation, energy prices inflation, you know that, and wage growth that
was not outpacing inflation. That's when they were in recession, and you could follow companies that cater to them and the troubles that they were having. You could see it, and the products consumers were buying. It was all being supported by wealthy. We don't want to have our eggs in one basket, right. We want consumer spending to diffuse more.
Broadly across households.
We want all households to participate in the expansion, and so we do have some positive developments here. Wages are growing on an inflation adjusted basis, the gas prices to all of that, right, they've still got very high cost of living just in terms of housing costs. As the FED cuts rates, you know that the market prices in the whole path of Fed cuts immediately. Fed even hints at doing something. What doesn't move yet until they actually
cut rates. Are the rates say that you pay on your credit card debt, and it is younger and lower income households that revolve a lot of that credit card debt. And so as the Fed continues to cut rates, that's going to take some pressure off of them as well.
We're talking Pennsylvania swing steak Gurz out there trying every beer today. Have you ever brown trout fished in Pennsylvania? Like real, it's like nineteenth century trout fishing.
Have you ever done that?
Yeah, that's that's where we go for small stream fishing. Small stream and a half foot rod is perfect, a flick of the wrist, It's very easy.
Small streams.
The brown trouts are fierce there.
Really.
Yeah, you're going after out west.
Yeah, compared to ten inch twelve inch little brown trout.
Fierce they're fears, fierce fighters.
Catching release or like we cook in thechen release. You're not cooking a cot release.
You're not cooking up three of them, you know, surf Elzabone. Saunders would be charged. She'd have the grill going, yeah, out.
There doing hey, maybe maybe a brook trout here?
And where's your secret stream in Pennsylvania? Don't give this the name? But what which beer is it?
It makes no sense.
Tom.
You said the word secret. What's your secret stream? And it's no longer a secret anymore?
See Ellen Saner, thank you so much for jobs today. Let's move on to someone constructive. Okay, Alen Xander with Burgocilli.
This is great, Claudius, I'm Ellen Zetner here with your job market inequities improve a perfect security into Liz and Saunder wouldn't know a brown trout if it hit her over the head, Liz Anne, I look at futures up thirty, I look at the mag seven hysteria. Liz Anne, I'm begging get us into Q one twenty twenty five.
What is our commitment to equities?
Well, I do worry a little bit about some some froth in the market. Although you've had some weakness that might ease a little bit of that even outside of traditional investor sentiment measures. You know, the consumer competence report that came out, which was better in terms of headline confidence, also had a record high percentage of respondent saying they thought stock prices would be higher. So you see another
behavioral data. So as I think between now and the first part of twenty twenty five, especially now with twenty five estimates coming down for earnings, my biggest concern is just that back of a little bit of frauthy sentiment all l sequel. I think that means if you get any kind of negative catalyst, I don't know that today's weaker jobs report would be that because of what in first for bed policy. That to me is the background risk heatting into twenty twenty five.
To my essay of the year two years ago, which was a brilliant effort by Lawrence MacDonald on the wall of money that was out there in twenty twenty two, liz Ane Saunders, is there a wall of money still out there trying to find a warm place.
Well, A lot of people point to the six trillion plus in my market funds as some wall that could come into the equity market. I'm not sure I agree with that assessment. I think that a lot of that money is pretty sticky. A lot of that money came in because of higher yields and out of riskier areas, whether it's on the fixed income side of things or
in the equity side of things. And actually, if you look historically at the early part of cutting cycles, money actually continues to flow into money market funds, not in the opposite direction. So I don't view that as some imminent wall of money that could find its way into equities. I think that's probably a good chunk of that is pretty sticky.
Luzanne, what are you seeing from earnings so far this quarter? We had started off strong with the big banks, We've had a bunch of tech earnings. What are you seeing and what do you think the market needs to see from earnings?
Well, this is obviously a big week with five of Magnificent seven reporting, and in terms of Meta and Microsoft, at least a quick glance, they didn't look bad. But at the expense side of things, I think it's the monetization story that really kicked in in the second quarter.
I think it's continued in the third quarter. Reporting season, which is the vast amount of expenses associated with AI, not just among the director indirect AI players, but across the spectrum of industries and sectors, and maybe the time gap between those investments and the monetization thereof, either from a revenue perspective or a productivity perspective. So I think we're continuing that theme and it helps to explain some of the weakness like yesterday and tech.
We're going to go CEFA inside baseball. Right now, Lizzie and I am apoplectic over this simplistic income statement analysis of the financial media.
You got to pull.
In profit, distribution of profit, use of cash is the buzzword, and even into improved balance sheet dynamics. Are we slaves to a simple income statement analysis or do you see more out there when you look at free cash flow, free cash flow growth and what it means to a dominant balance sheet.
I do see more of that out there, especially as you move away from the dominant cap weighted indexes like the S and P and the NASDAC and you go into some of the smaller cap indexes within say the
Rustle two thousand. I think that's where you do see that factor differentiation that is more acute, whether it's high interest coverage versus low interest coverage, or zombie companies versus non zombie companies, profitability type factors to your point, Tom, high return on equity, strong free cash flow, And as you know because we've talked about it a ton on this program, is I think that factor orientation, maybe not instead of a sector orientation, but as an overlay to
that sector orientation, I think has been crucial and I think will continue to be crucial. There's much more consistency in performance at the factor level than there is at the sector level.
Well, you just heard their folks as gospel, liz Ane Saunders. What are the factor constructive tone of MAG seven?
Which factors benefit meg seven?
Well, they are the most part very strong cash generation companies, and not just the MAG seven but the megacap tech tech related kind of names. They really took advantage of the rate backdrop that preceded the hiking cycle. And in most cases, many of these megacap companies are earning more interest on their cash and they're paying interest on that. They're not at the mercy of where we sit in
this cycle. The one thing I want to say though about the mag seven is the moniker was created when those were the seven largest stocks in the S and P five hundred. Last year, they were not the seven best performing stocks, but they were all very strong performers. That's not the case this year. They're not even the seven largest stocks anymore. Tessel's not even in the top ten anymore. You have to go down to ranking number three hundred and fifty three within the S and P
five hundred to capture all seven of those names. If you look at the top ten best performers in the SMP, only one of them is in the Magnificent seven, and it's not even the best performer. The best performer is the utility. So I think we have to change our mindset. We get wrapped into these monikers in these groupings, even if they fail to represent what they did when the idea was first created. Berkshire Hathaway is now number seven. I haven't heard anybody suggesting that gets put into the
MAGS seven. So a broader thinking around market construction.
Lizen gotta leave it there. We look forward to getting you on again soon. Lizzie Saunder.
Of course at Connick with Charles Schwab.
This is the Bloomberg Surveillance Podcast. Listen live each weekday starting at seven am Eastern on Applecarplay and Android Auto with the Bloomberg Business app. You can also listen live on Amazon Alexa from our flagship New York station Just Say Alexa playing Bloomberg eleven thirty Jessica Taylor.
She is exquisite on Senate Dynamics and she publishes this morning.
Jessica, thank you so much for joining us.
Love the cook political report telling people to shut up and subscribe. At the bottom of your note, you've got a bar chart of money made, money earned, money coming in versus vote. What's a correlation of money coming in Nebraska Osborne and Fisher? What's a correlation of money coming in to electoral outcome?
Well?
I think that when you have a state like Nebraska, this very Republican, and you have Dan Osborne, who's an independent, trying to stress that he's not a Democrat, even though a lot of the outside money coming in to help him is from outside democratic groups. He's been able to control the airwaves and set the narrative. We even see his latest ads running against deb Fisher there in a state that Trump won by twenty points. Making an out overt appeal to Trump voters. You know, he's the most
unique candidate of this cycle. And the Nebraska I did not expect on November first to be talking about Nebraska at all. You know, he's underscoring his blue collar roots. You know, he says that actually, for him, the one hundred and seventy four thousand dollars the salary of a senator
would be a pay race. So I think that's breaking through with a lot of people when we look at where the economy everything is, so no one would know who he is if he was not able to get this money and to get his name out there.
With your Senate focus, I want to get you into the Amy Walter timeout chare. With your Senate focus, can you frame out probability of a Republican Trump sweep.
I mean, I think that if there is going to be a trifecta, it will be a Republican one. And that's simply because the Senate is overwhelmingly favored to go to Republicans. My final Senate analysis is publishing maybe momentarily on our website.
I see it. It's out, Oh, it is up.
Okay, we predict that Republicans will pick up two to five seats, which gives them a majority of anywhere between fifty one and fifty four seats. You know, we came into this cycle with Democrats having to depend twenty three seats to just eleven for Republicans. Republicans are going to pick up West Virginia. We know that they're favorite in Montana over Democratic Senator Shared Brown, and that gives them to fifty one. So it just means that, you know, do they add Ohio where the race is neck and
neck Shared Brown could defy the odds. And when they're even in a state that Trump carried twice by eight points, those other Blue Wall states Michigan, Wisconsin, and Pennsylvania all remain very close in toss ups.
So I just have a.
Hard time seeing, you know, they Democrats need to float Nebraska. But even though you know, Osborne says you Wood and Caucus with Democrats, Texas is the one. So there's just far more paths for Republicans. And then I think that if we're seeing Republicans win in Wisconsin, Pennsylvania, and Michigan Senate races, that means that Trump has won those probably, so that means that he's won the presidency, and I
think also, you know, the House is very narrow. It's a true toss up, but I think that probably as the presidency goes, as the House goes. So just because of the way the Senate math is, I have a hard time seeing Democrats winning the majority, and so that would preclude them from a TRIFACTA.
I think, how about the House, Jessica, what racist should we be looking at for the House of Representatives?
Yeah, so New York and California feature some of the top races, and you know those are not presidential battlegrounds, but Democrats suffered from lower turnout in the midterms. They're hoping that higher residential turnout helps them. And there are some races that we've you know, moved toward Democrats in California, but some Republicans are still hanging on there, sort of
running ahead of where Trump is in those states. There's a couple of open seats in Michigan seventh District, for instance, the open seat that Alissa Slockin is leaving to run for Senate, and Tom Barrett has been has been raising a lot of money, you know, even though Democrats are spending heavily there. We see that race as slightly favoring him. And then you know, if you're looking for early seats
on election, I see how they go. There's a couple in Virginia, Virginia second and Virginia seventh district that are also very tight that could give us an early indication of how the House is going.
Charlie Cook has an absolutely brilliant essay here folks out in the last couple of days on the lack of land slides like we used to have a dearth of land slides. He goes into, you know, item by item, the closeness.
Of these races over.
The years, and as you know, Jessica, Charlie goes to the surprises. What's your biggest potential set the surprise.
I think it's Texas CRUs Yeah, I mean Democrats have pulling that shows this race hide other public polling does not. I still think those like you know, Cruse had a very close race in twenty eighteen. He actually very much benefited from it being a midterm year where the Republican governor Greg Abbott had a far better turnout machine. I think that Cruz is very vulnerable on abortion. You know, we saw Harris go there last week to sort of
emphasize the state's very stringent abortion laws. In fact, you know, while other states are able to have referendums to overturn the Texas does not allow that. And you know, just this week there was the story of a woman who was denied care after a miscarriage and she died. So I think those are very much in focus right now. And this is what I you know, if Democrats have a better night than expected, I think it probably has
to do with it. You know, I'm cognizant of the fact that in twenty twenty two the polling actually underestimated Democrats. And if Democrats have a better night overall, if Harris does, if some one like Colin Allread in Texas does, I think it's because the potency of abortion and the Dobbs issue after Roefel is still very powerful and is driving a lot of voters, particularly female voters.
Jessica Taylor, thank you so much for quok political report her focus on the US Senate.
This is the Bloomberg Surveillance Podcast. Listen live each weekday starting at seven am Eastern on applecar Play and Android Auto.
With the Bloomberg Business app.
You can also watch US live every weekday on YouTube and always on the Bloomberg Terminal tier.
And our I call be on the Sikorski out west of Pittsburgh, I might say towards Indiana. University of Pennsylvania. David Gurra joins US now off of Wisconsin. He's the one who said to me times shut up. It's Arizona that matters. But now there'll be the trek east for David Gurra. He will end up Paul Election night, sixteenth Street, Philadelphia.
Monk's Cafe is this is They.
Serve four hundred beers including Iron City Beer, and David Girl will be there.
I want to go to Connor Lamb.
Okay, conservative Democrat ran against Fetterman, lost out in the wilderness now of democratic politics. What is Connor Lamb's best outcome in Pennsylvania Tuesday night.
That's a great question. I mean, I think this is going to be another tight race. And you know, I, as you say, just came back from Wisconsin where the candidate whom I was following there, Tammy Baldwin, was talking about how she's in a fifty to fifty race. It's on a razor's edge. We've been talking about this as it's manifested itself in the polls over these last many months. But these candidates are living it and this has been
a long slog for them. But nobody's taking anything for granted here, I think in these final few days, and something bastood out to me as I was there on the campaign trailers. The attitude is every vote matters. And we've talked a lot about these kind of mythic undecided voters.
That's not who these folks are focusing on now. It's getting people who have voted in the past but might not have last time or the time before that, to recognize that it's important to get out there, mail that ballot in or go to the polls in person.
I mean, I put boxes of Amazon outside my door last night so the kids wouldn't trick or treat there.
I mean, Paul, And that's how antisocial I am. David Gerd is knocking on doors matter anymore?
You know?
I talked to a number of Tammy Baldwin supporters, some of whom are in unions. They're being organized by their unions to go out. Maybe not even live in Wisconsin, they live in Minnesota, or they live in Illinois and the strategy has changed. It's not just kind of randomly knocking on doors. They're being targeted, you know, go to this Democrats house, go to this person who has voted for us in the past and might do it again.
They're not doing the kind of cold knocking where it's going to be a Trump supporter who's going to show them off their front law. And they're really again trying to get those who are been committed in the past and might be but yes, and what the refrain was is explain why you're doing it, why this election is important, and seal the deal at the end. Try to get that person to say, you know what, great to talk to you. I'm going to show up at the polling place on Tuesday.
How touch you feeling, Paula. They knocked on you.
I havn't knocked on my door, thankfully. They're welcome to the Jersey Shore anytime. David, if it is a real story to get the vote out, is there a feeling when you were in Wisconsin or that maybe one side is doing a better job than the other, has got a better on the ground apparatus.
We know more detail about how the Democrats, how the Harris campaign is approaching this. They're very forthright about how much money they have and how they're deploying that across the country. But the Trump campaign, in its memo to interested parties, as they put it, say that they have a very strong ground game. They're confident in how that's going to play out here over these these next few days. But when you look at the sheer number of people who are out there on the pay role, it is
the Harris campaign that has the edge. And you see that just in the way that the candidates are approaching this race. Yes, Kamala Harris is doing big events. Donald Trump is doing big events, but I think it's safe to say he is relying more on the spectacle and celebrity of these big, big arena events than she is. Thinking that's going to trickle down to voters and get them animated.
You know, David, as you know, all the experts are telling us this is a toss up here. Just when you're on the streets in Wisconsin, does.
It feel like a toss up? Does it feel that tight?
Yes, it feels extremely tight. You hear that from the candidates, you hear that from those who are organizing for them. You hear they're from the voters themselves, who are fatigued, tired of all the ads that are everywhere, the ads that are on TV, the ads that they're seeing on the side of the road as well. I mean every other billboard is a political ad, either from the candidates or one of those political groups. So they're inundated by it.
But there is this broad recognition that in that state, in particularly Wisconsin, but also Pennsylvania, things have changed, the terrain has shifted. It's a closer race than it has.
Been the day.
David Charlie Cook right in a gorgeous essay here like two days ago as well. He talks about the lack of landslides, and then he's got a fifteen line paragraph going from Bush Gore all the way through to Trump twenty sixteen, then on the jee Biden, and he's talking about the narrowness, the reality of the narrowness. So, Pennsylvania, is it going to be ten thousand votes?
I think it's going to be extremely close. And I know that there are some skeptics who say maybe the polling is wrong or there's something about it that's not quite right. It's going to be a wider margin. Yet what we do have in Pennsylvania. Which is interesting is some visibility into these early votes. You know who the state sent them out to and what parties they're affiliated with, and which have come back, and so you see Democrats
having an edge there. Fascinating the story this morning, We've covered it, The Washington Post is covering at New York Times covering it this morning as well, is the role of white women in the country broadly, and in Pennsylvania in particular. It's a real difficulty for Democrats to claim them as supporters. And we look at the last election,
Trump had them by a margin there. You look at the one before that, Hillary Clinton was the candidate and still wasn't able to secure them to the extent that Democrats wanted them and needed them to do. So that is a big push for the Harris campaign for Democrats now is to go after that thirty percent of the electorate, which is frankly a party electorate who does show up on election day, does get to the polls.
Do we know who the undecideds are?
Like when you're on the streets in Wisconsin, does somebody have a sign around their next.
They're ordering the spotted cow at the bar and Yeah, No, I mean, I think that we have some vague sense of who they are, but I think that they're a rarer bird, and we've been led to believe, you know, I think that again for many months, that's who we thought these campaigns were targeting. At this point in the game, I don't think that. I don't think they've given up on them, of course, but I think that there is just such strange mystique around what may be motivating somebody
like that to sit on the sidelines. As long as they have that now, it's like that's not where they're placing their rest.
So do you anticipate at eleven o'clock at night you're gonna be on either your dogfish Head Rodenbach Crimson Crew, or you're gonna be looking at your Crooked Stave member Barry Sierra twenty sixteen beer.
I need Thomas my Ama.
You're gonna be on with AMH at eleven pm. And they don't have a clue.
Right, Well, Look, I've been in touch with all of these election offices across Pennsylvania, say what's the plan gonna be? Most of them have these online dashboards and they say come nine o'clock Eastern time, Wall Street Time. For those in the audience, they're gonna begin putting those unofficial results up, we might have a good sense of where things are headed directionally. That evening they're not going to call my bed is, they're not going to call that race for
several days. Officially, there's going to be a lot of uh, you know, very very specific counting of votes, and then I think there is the spectrum sort of legal action that might come in in the days that follow them.
Twelve dollars chicken, liver, moose with pickled mustard seeds, house made jam, and a.
Beer of your choice.
Nice.
I mean that's I did have a butterburger in Wisconsin and some cheese curds at Culvers. What is a butter butterburger is a Culver's tradition. It is a buttered white bread bun.
With the burger.
I was told to get it. It was it was you survived, slaked my hunger. I survived.
He wasn't meats and exactly in Rome, cheese steaks in Philly.
Travel seriously, yeah, down to Philadelphia and we're going to spend Monday and Tuesday in those you know, fabled suburbs County in.
The lot fifteen seconds. Six weeks ago you said Arizona matters, still matters.
Still matters. But now I you know, I have to say selfishly, Pennsylvania's the state to watch.
I'll be watching it.
Look for David Monk's cafe Philadelphia election. Now probably you know, I assume Borro.
Will go down.
I can put it on your card right tw of course, now it's on HTTO rheto keep for.
DMX is in charge of all amongst cafe that receipts.
This is the Bloomberg Surveillance podcast, available on Apple, Spotify, and anywhere else you get your podcasts. Listen live each weekday seven to ten am Eastern on Bloomberg dot com, the iHeartRadio app, tune In, and the Bloomberg Business app. You can also watch us live every weekday on YouTube and always on the Bloomberg terminal.