August Jobs Report and Rate Cuts

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Joining us now.

Claudius Sam of course for their work at the FED for many years and definitive on the American economy. Here we are twenty two thousand is the headline number distant from the old number of one point fifty being healthy? How close did we come to a negative number exchange in manufacturing payrolls revision negative actual statistic negative twelve thousand.

But far more it's about moving forward with a FED.

Claudius Sam is with us with New Century Advisors, Laudia this sets us up even more, is Anaalog and Stephen Englander and Claudia Sam have said for this important September nine revision. When you see this tepidness including non farm three months moving average of twenty nine thousand, how do you interpret what we may see with a big negative revision September ninth?

Right, So first I say, just from the data today, this ought to be able to convince people with the FED who were on the fence about doing a rate cut. This really does speak in terms of it's time to start adjusting interest rates downward. I think it still fits within the This is a risk. You know, there are a lot of reasons that job growth could be slowing because of labor supply, and it is very consistent to see that and the unemployer ate tick up.

Not you know, it's not jumping up, it's moving up.

But this really does firm up the case that Powe made in Jackson Hole and Chris Waller has been making about it's time to start cutting. But I think I still think this data is in line with a gradual pace of cutting. The data that we will get next week on the Annual Revision that is a preliminary estimate for the level of employment in March of this year.

So it's important information. We'll be watching it.

But in terms of kind of you know, adjudicating what's happening right now in the labor market.

It's not going to be that helpful.

All the two year yield almost back to those April low yields.

Yeah, I'm keeping an eye on that, Tom Claudia. To the extent that this data today maybe does prompt this FED to move later this month, how do you think the cadence of their subsequent moves will be for this.

FED, the cadence is going to come off of the data.

I think we have to remember we are still an environment where inflation is elevated and we are likely to see CPI prints that you know, firm up in.

The coming month.

So I still think in a best case where the economy is just moving along, we're in a slower growth place. So this is not, you know, a super place to be, but we're probably going to have some push and pull of the employment data and the inflation data, and so I don't necessarily think we're set up right now for a full cutting cycle, but the data will drive on this one.

We welcome you across America around the world. It is Bloomberg Surveillance on YouTube. Subscribe to Bloomberg Podcast for your office, for your home as well. Growing each and every day somebody can be able to toime. We listened it to YouTube in the car. They do it to their cell phone. I don't know. I mean I only got an iPhone five, so it doesn't it doesn't work. But they do it

So, Claudia, the FED obviously data dependent as we know, but now they also have to deal with maybe some outside external political pressure. How do you think that's affecting this Federal Reserve these days?

In terms of the decision that they'll make in September, it should not be affecting them.

They're going to look at the data.

They still have a majority of people on the FMC that are you know, adhere to and they all unanimously agreed to their updated framework last month, and that's all about data and all about looking at these risks, and so in terms of the decision, I don't think that changes anything one iota. In terms of the concerns in and outside of the FED, they are just I mean off the charts right now like this, this really the FED could be very different FED in not even a year from now.

Okay, Claudia, I got to ask you this question because you're probably the only one I know who read cover to cover a history of the Federal Reserve Alan Meltzer in nineteen thirteen to nineteen fifty one. Did you read that entire book.

It's a very good book.

It's a very shame.

She's the only one I know who read like fifteen hundred pages. Here's my mail, Okay, my mail is this Tom. You idiots, you fancy urban idiots and bow ties. We're in recession. How do you interpret, Claudia, the percent of America that is living recession right now?

So you know this is this is a tough one and it's really a question not just for the FED. You know, there are there are demographic groups that have unemployment rates in the best of times that look like recessions for other demographic groups, and we have some real structural problems and differences in our economy.

The fence tool with interest rates is a really weak tool.

So the best thing they can do, and it helps everybody and particular those on the margins, is to keep the economy as stable as possible, keep inflation low, keep unemployment low, you know, and that is their mandate.

But that's a bigger mandate that goes beyond the Fed.

Claudia, you're foundational to us. Thank you so much for being the bedrock of our job today. Surveillance correction. Claudia, when she read Allan Meltzer, it was only eight hundred and ten pages. Ah, gotcha, doctor sum Thank you so much of Michigan and the Fed and New Century Advised his biggest fight ever had with Alan Meltzer.

He said, time you have to aggregate the economy. Okay, you can't. Can we can?

We security to equities all I think we should. We've been doing feast income all morning. The bond market, we're looking at the two year come in on the certitude of a rate cut thirty year bond four point eight one percent. We're bond free, joining us now Amy Wi Silverman had a derivative strategy at RBC. Okay, we're partition into the halves the AI boom and a lot of people we really ugly in this Job's report in slow down,

Is it like thirty stocks and everything else a little bit?

Yeah, Tom, So you know, it's it's always comes back down to that concentration risk. You see that spread between equal weighted versus index weighted, and that spread keeps getting wider, and I think we keep getting that hope that that will narrow. You know, we kind of came in with the September scaries, but you know, post this report, I'm curious what the market does because we kind of were well positioned for this, and I'm curious if we go back to everything as it was.

What's a positioning when you look at SKEW and particularly this thing gamma where you know, people are looking at the speed of movement.

So I think this is really important post Liberation Day Tom September and October specifically, SKEW super steeps really high demand for hedging and term structure really steep. Now we're here like we're here, and so my big question is do we capitulate first or do investors because to some degree, you know, like we were kind of looking through these now with these data points and I just think back

Parents call you up and we got it right, you didn't.

So in your marketing and derivatives market, are investors are they buying protection? Are they skewing towards more risk position? What are they doing these days? What's the sentiment?

So they were very well set up specifically into this tenor they were well hedged. And the one thing we learned from April second is that you can be well hedged and well monetized, but you can not be right on the velocity up. So that's my question. Now, I think we kind of protected our left tails. We kind of knew this was coming to some degree as well. Telegraphed that that non FUM payroll straddle break even was was like we five seven percent. It was like a

Does your market care about the fed?

Independence of the FED?

Maybe some pressure that the FED maybe getting from the executive branch. Does the long term option market that they care about?

That they do?

And you know, it's interesting if you think about the first tantrum the market had, it was mostly around the comments Trump made about firing pals. So the market didn't like that. Right then we kind of fast forward to cook there's less of a reaction, but to me, it was like all part of the same reaction. The thing that I wonder about is, you know, people kind of

On job Zay. We digress to the equity markets.

We do that with futures pretty much stable off where they were two hours ago pre jobs report. We're up point seven. Excuse we're up point five on NASDEK one. That's where we are right now. Futures up nine, SMP futures up nine and aiming with Silverman dazzles us from RBC Capital Markets. Okay, trend following the CTAs. I'm looking at a very very famous growth successful morning Star five star fund and it's getting right up Bucker Stupp near

I definitely think on the margin it's important to watch, and as you said, it's kind of getting filled up. And at the same time, you know, there's a lot of kind of seasonal weakness that you get the September scaries, and then on top of that you see retail weakening, and I think that to me is why people have

Does your market have a view on valuation? Concern about valuation, not worried about it? Like, well, if I have a concern, I can hedge it away. How does valuation come into your market? The derivator's market?

You know, I remember being in a client meeting recently and we always it's like no client meeting is filled until you talk about AI and concentration valuation. And the client just said, like, has the market ever really traded off because of valuation? So meaning not that it's good or bad, but has that actually in and of itself been a catalyst the same way that like really strong concentration a couple names have been a catalyst. And that's the thing about the market is that that's not like

You and I kneeled at the altar of Peter Lynch, and what he's going to say is, look, every ninety days, they show up and they deliver revenue report down the income statement, earnings report. Let's modernize it over to free cash flow with all the abilities of OURBC. Do you see a breaking of the model September thirtieth into the October earning season.

I don't see it.

I don't think so. And I think this is what I mean by like, it has felt very telegraphed, literally since April May of this year, that we were going to get some sort of draw do some sort of September scaries and failure, you know, whatever it is. And so my question is, if we've all been so well positioned for this and that gets monetized quickly, then what

What are you hearing from your clients? You know, your shoe box in the room. I mean you can hear a pin. There's like quantitative finance prass to shut up, don't ask a question. What do you hear from your clients?

You know, the big question I get asked from them, is all the positioning data right now would suggest that there's kind of weakness and demand the next few months. But the question is, especially on the retail side, has there been some sort of tectonic shift where that just doesn't apply anymore? And it's really interesting because every time, you know, we just had our summer interns. They're all gone now. But every time I talk to interns, my favorite thing to do is pull them and be like,

Have you talked to Taylor since secret and the engagement?

No?

You know, I worry she's not going to tour because she's engaged now and she's too busy.

Like, is she going to tour for shows?

No, she's not.

You know, I'm very disappointed in that we got her Cavier.

Ball from Scully and Scully Wow went over on Park Avenue. I mean they have everything, beautiful, guest, what do you get them? I mean they have how many houses between the two of them?

A puppy jersey short gut.

You know to see Amie with Silverman. Thank you, so don't get her another caviar ball. We've got that taken Amy with Silverman. RBC Capital Markets here were the markets pretty much stays just off the shock of a twenty two thousand statistic on non farm payrolls four point three percent unemployment rate. We need an update from the interactive broker studios. The Bloomberg Business Flash on jobs Day, Lisa.

Mantaoe, you got it in this business slash brought to you by Oracle Attention growing businesses. Oracle offering to cut your current cloud bill in half if you move to Oracle Cloud infrastructure for new U customers with minimum financial commitments. See if your company qualifies at Oracle dot Com slash Bloomberg. So yes, we have a mixed look on Wall Street. This is after US got job growth. It cooled considerably last month. Unemployment rose to the highest since twenty twenty one.

Announce you there, you got it.

Do that for you.

That is your Bloomberg business.

Lash Paul and Tom are remodeling.

The thirty seven hundred gold. I think you have to. I mean, there is nothing stopping this thing. What does it do for prices at Tiffany's.

It can't be good.

You got to pay up. The talk about elasticity, Yeah, exactly, Lisa, Lisa, thank you so much, Lisa Mattaylor.

The other report, I'm watching NASIK one hundred futures up seven tens of a percent all in all, advancing here off the jobs report, the vics fifteen point zero seven Bloomberg surveillance on this job's day with day after day's support from Commonwealth. Commonwealth join over two thousand independent financial advisors. They're taking control of their growth with advisor centric support and future ready technologies. Grow in your own terms with

Is it a normal rate cut?

I don't know if it's a normal rate cut or what we've historically been used to, because I think we're pulling a lot of levers.

We're kind of back to that.

Same field of the beginning of the year, that we're getting so many policy moves from the administration at once, How do we weigh through them? What is the impact which hits first? And I think we're in the same thing. The market's digesting we've fired the BLS chair where we're pulling all of these strings with the FED. The market's

Brian Jacobson annex Wealth Management out with a note here a fifty basis point cut is back on the tables. That's one interpretation of kind of some of the data points we saw here today. So Christina, you sit here with the two year treasure yield at three and a half percent. It's not the four percent we had before, but still pretty solid. How do you think about treasuries versus credit risk?

Here.

Yeah, So I think the treasury market, we still think that the thematic remains the same, that the curve should be steeper, and the front end has done a lot of work. As you said, we're all the way to three fifty, But does it probably continue to perform here because the questions are are we getting just this slow down or is there a real risk of breaking in the labor market? Right Like you've had a lot of

For sure.

We still like steepener so being short long end bonds. I think that's a global phenomenon. And then credit markets are tight, and they have been tight. I mean, that hasn't stopped money from flowing it And you look at the massive pipeline of supply that's come to start September well absorbed with ease.

Thank you.

I mean, to me, that is the absolute headline is the wall of money com money. Lawrence MacDonald, who wrote an essay courageous essay on the three years ago, here's.

My reality, and I think it's unknown. You live this every day.

The Bloomberg Total Return aggregate index on price basis has advanced sixteen percent from the gloom of.

A number of years ago. We're easily three quarters.

Of the way back to the peak before the huge, huge collapse that was out there. Kem. Rogoff's given us a debt and deficit austerity view the street and investo saying you can buy, you can participate in the market. How do you manage the fears out there of the debt and deficit long.

Term look, So, I think it goes back to weighing those two things within credit. We look at credit across the board and we think it looks tight, and so if we're going to hold credit paper, we'd rather do

That's where I want to go to the dollar here. I mean, I've seen my stock market bounce back. I mean a lot of other risk assets that bounce back, but the dollar is still eight nine percent below its earlier year peak. Is that just because the dollar is maybe over bought in the new year with President Trump, animal spirits, all that kind of stuff, or is it telling us something else?

I think it's a combo, and I think you have to take a step back and say we're coming from it ten year dollar bull run, and are some of these big thematic things changing for us? It's been all of these building blocks all mean a structurally weaker dollar. We're talking about tariffs, which are attacks on the consumer. We're talking about even again, we've talked a lot about

Right now. For those of you, hold on two hands on the steering wheel if you're driving right now, Chris Kinney Camp many of invesco with a clinic. Okay.

The vanilla spread is the difference in yield between the two year and the ten year. That's what the media quotes. Most people don't know what the dynamics are. The four box out come you can have with two numbers moving up and down. Maybe you look at the two year, the ten year, the two year, the thirty year. The adults like Christina look at the difference in between the ten year and the thirty year. Christina, it's a moonshot in twenty twenty five. At thirty year bone extending way

Steps which way, steps back, or snaps further Bringay.

That's a dynamic of that looks shot. Yeah, steepness.

I mean, we've steepened a lot this year.

We've certainly steepen more in cash and treasury space than in the swap market. I think swapscurves are still kind of not kind of giving that. But if you take a step back of historically you talk about curves that are two hundred three hundred basis points, when you talk about two tens and we're still not there is.

There a road? I'm not back to normal.

No, I mean, and again you're coming off post GFC zero lower bound, this different dynamic. So are are there perhaps things that are different that you don't get to a three hundred four hundred basis point stepness? But can you be sleeper?

Sure?

How does a bond person lift the stock market?

She's single handed with the market right now, Nasak one hundred up eight tenths of a percent because of Christina cat Minnie.

Thank you so much, Christina.

Really treasure having you here on job day to go from Rebecca Patterson to Claudia Sam Christina cat Menu.

There it's adults on Global Wall Street. Stay with us.

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You're listening to the Bloomberg Surveillance Podcast. Catch us live weekday afternoons from seven to ten am Eastern Listen on Applecarplay and Android out all with the Bloomberg Business Up, or watch us live on YouTube.

My book of the summer hugely successful for Ken Rogoff, was Our Dollar Your Problem.

I put it out last night.

Is a summary along with Rick Atkinson's wonderful second volume on the American Revolution, The Rogue offf Revolution, as he has done with Carmen Reinhardt a decade ago and through his career, is to consider our debt, our deficit, our battle with austerity. Professor Rogoff joined some Harvard this morning. Ken, Thank you so much. Congratulations on the book. Give us an anecdote, Ken of the success of the book. I want every economic student to read it.

Are they?

Oh, as people are starting to read it, they're really enjoying it. I'm getting all kinds of emails, letters, not to mention countless reviews where people has sort of been surprised that it's so fun to read.

It's great.

At Lisa noted the grace slick is in the early pages. You's got jes in there early. Okay, Ken project Syndicate, A blistering essay. Foreign Affairs Magazine, a blistering essay. This time is different. Are we finally unraveling our debt and our deficit to crisis?

Well, in my book, I thought it would take five to seven years.

On the current track, we are.

I think Trump, as you said earlier, as an accelerant.

You know, it's certainly not a sure thing.

A lot of it goes around what are the underlying interest rates? If we go back to the zero interest rates, real interest rates of the twenty tens up through twenty twenty two in the pandemic, Well, sure, that is a free lunch. I mean you can spend and you basically don't have to pay anything. That's what all the I call them antiosterians were absolutely convinced. And some very smart people you had them on your program, followed this. I

Paul's got eight questions he wants to jump in here. But the answer, Ken Roguff is I'm auditing X ten with Jason Furman, so I did a fancy logarithmic thirty year bun We get to the Ken rogan Off six percent thirty year bond, Paul late next year, like autumn of the next year. Ken, do you still model a six percent yield for the United States of America?

Well, I think a six percent ten year treasury is more likely than a one in three quarters treasury that we had for a long time.

Absolutely.

I mean, it's very hard to predict interest rates, but I think there is likely to go up as down.

Professor.

I've been in this market since for thirty five years, and we've been talking about the national debt and deficits every single year, yet nothing changes. And I guess I've been told by others that say, hey, as long as people continue to buy our.

Treasury bonds, we're okay.

How do you think about that?

The question is at what price? We've gone through this period where interest rates have gone down and down and down, and our death you know, has gone up from maybe thirty percent of GDP in nineteen eighty to sixty percent to ninety percent to over one hundred and twenty percent, and the interest rates had been coming down until they didn't.

That's what's changed.

What do you what would you if you were sitting in Congress and you had a couple of folks on both sides of the aisle with you, what would you suggest they do to address this issue?

Well, why don't you at least give a try to running a two to three percent deficit instead of a six or seven percent deficit. You know, while you organize. I mean, you know, the solutions are well known. You could improve the tax system, their ways to make it more efficient. We don't have a very efficient system would be the understatement.

Of the year.

They are all kinds of suggestions for improving growth, but I think sort of a sober thing to do would be to at least not run what we call a primary deficit, means above and beyond the interest payments, which right now are about three percent of GDP.

I just want to drop in here with an important announcement separate from ken Rogoff, and we're thrilled you're listening to us across the nation today and indeed around the world and in a fractious United Kingdom. Angelo Rayner resigns is US Deputy Prime Minister. I'm not going to go into the nuances because I don't understand it, but there has been an uproar and the Labor Party wrapped around the Deputy Prime minister. She resigns and also will resign

Growth, so Ken, as we think about just kind of global economic growth here and we've got we're now in a world of terrafs, reciprocal terrorffs, all kinds of barriers going up the global trade.

As you step back and.

Look at it from a thirty thousand foot level, what does that mean to you for kind of global economic growth?

Well, I think near term, you know, the growth has held up better than anyone would have guessed with all this noise going on. That's been a surprise. Now we may find you're getting the labor data today and you know it wasn't as good as we thought it was, and it's hard to know what's going on. I might interject, you know, labor jobsday has always been the big number because it's the most reliable number that we get sort of in real time.

Maybe now and.

Going forward, it's not going to be considered as reliable.

And I don't know what we're going to look at. Can I look at your book?

And I want to bring this back to a summary of all the crises across Ken Rogoff's The Young Academics is just it's amazing shows up for a job interviews in a polyester suit? How did that go?

Ken? Rogoff?

You showed up in early in the book Young Rogueff, chess guy shows up in a polyester suit?

How did that go? Ken?

It was my Rhodes scholarship interview, and I had just never worn a suit.

I never bought a suit. I didn't know what it looked like.

So I had this sort of it was really beautiful colors, you know. I looked like I was probably some kind of entertainer. And everyone who was else was wearing gray blue suits. And I tie it in later to when I go to Poland playing in a chess tournament, and I'm describing how they their suits are awful because they have, you know, centralized planning, and they're looking at my so and saying, oh my gosh.

Do all Americans have such great suits? Can I look at Ardella?

Your problem speaks of crisis just as a general statement, and I'll let you work off it. How close are we to the collective fears of global Wall Street of August nineteen ninety eight, the unraveling of various em crises Ecuador, Mexico, and the rest or something tangible like the IMF bailout of the UK many decades ago.

Well, there are lots of small countries in crisis. In fact, way more than in a long time. I mean, the World Bank reported that almost half the developing and low income countries were basically in default. We have the Sri Lankas, there's always Argentina, Lebanon. I mean, there's all kinds of countries that are in trouble. I should say Argentina is doing much better now, but of course it has a pretty big debt problem. Those often are the Canara and

But you know, I don't know what it would be.

It would not surprise me if we did have a major country run into big problems, which could run anywhere from you know, a Latin American country to Japan over the coming year.

Ken given kind of that uncertainty global uncertainty, this federal reserve is really in a tight spot here. And not to mention the political pressures on this federal reserve, what do you make of the kind of how the Feds kind of been working here the last several months and maybe what it'll do over the coming.

Well, the big call is actually not whether to take the SHORTERM interest rate down half a percent or a quarter percent or when to do it.

The big call is where are we headed.

If we're headed back to these very low interest rates, which some very smart people think, I mean, this is a debate, then they have a lot of room to cut without triggering inflation.

They'd sort of be moving the market to where it should be.

On the other hand, if that's not the case, which I believe and I think by enlarge the Fed staff is very skeptical of the lower forever review, then they need to be cautious. It's so hard to read the data. The combination of Trump, AI and everything makes it very hard to know what's going on.

You can comment, honey, our singing, and this is of course working with Jorgensen at Harvard and many other giants on I'm going to call it for the dynamics of productivity. And there's a school can down the street where I think they came up with total factor productivity.

I can't remember quite, but.

On productivity, the great theme of our liberal state is productivity and technology to the rescue.

Do you observe that or is that over emphasized? Well, it's certainly not overemphasized. It's very important.

It's sort of hard to know how to make it come and how to make it go away. I think Wall Street obviously has been very excited about AI their air pockets, where the productivity has been very clear. I do think some of what we're seeing in the high Wall Street prices reflects labor share falling, profits and businesses share rising, which means it isn't growth.

It isn't all growth.

Some of it's just a reallocation that has a very different political implications.

Of course, Ken, congratulations on my book of the summer. I just can't say enough, folks, whatever smart.

Ale of kid you've got, I don't care how they're smart, Like rogueoff, they're dumb Liking the answer is cover to cover two hundred pages.

Our dollar, your problem.

It is the arc of ken Rogoff's career and the view for it as well.

Kenneth Rogoff, Harvard University. Stay with us.

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Join us selling US jobs for twenty summer.

You joined us with all of her work at Bessemer, Trusted Bridgewater and at the Council on Foreign Relations. Here's what I want to know, but dying to talk to you. How efficacious will FED rate cuts be? Or is our economy terrasenal in such a jumble that a series of quarter point cuts won't provide the salvation.

We're used to.

Good morning, and that is exactly my fear. So when we hear members of the administration saying rate cuts are needed, the housing market will swing. Those were Trump's words were in a different regime. Inflation running core PCE, running it close to three percent instead of one percent or one and a half percent. We had extremely low inflation the last twenty ish years, and so the FED didn't have to worry about that. It could focus on the job

Of the yield curve.

You just gave liquidity to the market and you help create jobs. Today is different. If we cut, yes we're going to provide liquidity. Yes, that helps the discount rate for equities, but it doesn't necessarily translate into a swinging housing market. I think the risk goes the other way.

So as we step back here, I mean, what do you think the Fed is really focusing on the labor market inflation, trying to balance it makings front and center.

Yeah, I mean they are trying to balance it. They're very worried about inflation and inflation expectations rising. It was bad enough the hit they took after missing it a couple of years ago. They don't want to do that twice. At the same time, there is more and more data coming out suggesting the labor market's cooling, and what they want to avoid is that hockey stick moment that we've seen historically, when you know, slow, moderate job reductions become

Unemployment rate.

I mean, you know the consensus here, Rebecca's four point three percent. It's a little bit higher than last month, but I don't know, it still feels like full employment to me. What do you think the number is that Fed's looking at.

Yeah, the big story with unemployment rate is that it's and Powell talked about this at Jackson Hole last month, is that you have fewer net new jobs being added, but you also have less supply of labor, and so those two things together are helping to keep the unemployment rate relatively flat.

So because you.

Normally don't see this huge decrease in labor supply that's coming from the immigration deportations and lack of new immigrants, that's usually not a factor. So a non employment rate goes up, it goes up. We know what that means today. Again, we're in a different regime.

So as we step back here, put it all together. When you talk to investors. How much risk do you think they want to take out there when they think about all this cross winds out there and geopolitical issues, and what's the risk appetite? What's the sentiment out there?

I mean with equity markets, earnings beat a low bar, but they beat right and stocks are near all time highs now. I think a lot of that is retail investors. I think a lot of that still is investors who want exposure to the more structural trade themes like AI beneficiaries, global defense, and infrastructure.

But that is still.

Creating wealth for consumers which allows them to keep spending. So I think the risk appetite is there. But I think gold is sending us a signal up thirty five percent year to date. You know, I worry that we're going to have a Brexit moment, that everything is fine, fine, fine,

So we got a technological revolution.

I was busting Ken Rogoff's chops at the guys down at MIT got it right.

High tech at Harvard is you know, can we get a defenseman to play hockey?

So, Rebecca, the bottom line is we've got an ambiguity here, which you studied your expert at.

And then if rates go up it's ambiguous, maybe we do okay.

But if there's this huge political effort of rates going down, what is the ambiguity? What do our listeners and viewers have to look one way or the other way.

So rates going down in part because of a politicized fed to me means yield steepening continues. So the short end goes down of the curve, but the ten year, the thirty year treasury yields go up. That undermines the housing market, it undermines auto loans. It's going to be something that hurts the consumer. So I think the AI story I wrote about this at CFR's website earlier this week. It's not just AI hurting jobs next year, it's AI

Rebeccam Partison, thank you so much. I stay with us.

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She returns Lisa Manteo with the newspapers.

Good morning, Good morning, all right, so we've been hearing about this big UFC cage match right taking place at the White House South Lawn. Well, the Wall Street Journal has a few more details about it. They say President Trump's owner, Ivanka Trump, she actually practices Brazilian jiu jitsu. She is a UFC fan. She's going to be part of the planning process. Lasers and fireworks are going to light up the sky. It was supposed to be fourth of July, but yeah, too many conflicts obviously, so it's

It's a big thing.

We've heard a lot about UFC and the growing popularity, popularity of the sport.

And the White House is hell.

You know, tennis matches, t ball fields, pick up basketball games, but nothing like to this size. Give people in your household, I do, I do, yes, And it's going to bring up a whole conversation for another day about where to watch it.

How big is Connor McGregor. Is he like a ginormous steal?

Uh?

Yeah, he doesn't fight as much anymore. He's become like this movie star in a way too, But it is, It is huge and a lot of people.

Follow it, and yeah, I love your saint, Pierre.

I'm more of a boxing person, but that's okay, okay. So NFL season kicked off last night. The Eagles beat the Boys, right. But for the first time ever. What's different is that NFL fans could watch every in market game on their TVs without pay TV subscription, So that was a big thing. The question is, now, how did you watch the game right cable streaming?

What did you do?

So Business Insider clenched the numbers to see what was a better option, and they say cutting the cord would only save you a tiny bit cash. Okay, so there's a new analysis. So if you subscribe to every streamer that carries pro football, you would only save ready a dollar and three cents.

Am there you go? Is it worth it? That's all the last decade. Yeah, because you listened to it. Okay.

So NFL fans, okay, here's what you knew. You would need Paramount plus Fox one to watch the in market Sunday afternoon games on CBS and Fox. Then you need Peacock to watch NBC's Sunday Night Football. Then you need the ESPN app to carry Monday night football. Amazon Prime Video carries most Thursday games. So together, that's just about seventy eight dollars if you want all that and have to manage all those subscriptions.

This is progress, I guess that's what you're telling me.

I having gown up in the cable TV world, I don't get it.

It's just confusing, Like you want to watch the game?

Where do you go? What I noticed in the house is people are watching less TV. That's the immovable fact. Yeah, they're just watching less TV. That's what I say.

Just stream it.

Yes, okay, So this is a review from Bloomberg's Top Shelf Society. A bottle what they call is one of the most fun vodka flavors to ever cross their desk. How do we get transferred to this department?

What do they drink? Work?

It is pizza flavored vodka. It's from Rhode Islands. It's Go Spirits. Costs about thirty bucks.

Okay.

They say this one did a disappoint because it has this big tomato we scent regino forward flavor, mouth watering, garliky exhale. It's also made with mozzarella, which is infused at the end. So they say, yeah, you know what it does caste like a slice of pizza. So you can use it in yes, a bloody mary, but maybe your next martini, your next Martin pizza.

I love vodka, so but I can't put them together. Don't put them together now, all right, least tell you with the newspapers.

Thank you so much.

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