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Right now, as we have friendship with us of Arkansas. Later we have a Democrat, but he is a unique indifferent Democrat. How many Democrats really started out is a selectment on the finance committee of their given village in town. His was in the advantage of Greenwich, Connecticut joining us now the governor of the state of Connecticut, Ned Lamont, Democrat, and ned an honor to have you on with us today. I'm going to suggest you are a wing of the
Democratic political experiment, more conservative. How do you drag your brethren towards Lamont politics in the next two and four years?
Hey, well, good morning Tom. Well, it was a wipeout last night, and I hope it's a wake up call for the Democrats. It was not a wipeout in Connecticut. Not only did our congressional team go back, but we actually picked up Democrats in the legislature of the House in the Senate. I'd like to think we're sort of meeting potatoes Democrats. We balanced the budget, we cut middle class taxes, we're pretty tough on crime, and you can't get away from your roots.
Ned Lamont I saw last night over at CNN David Axelrod, who some people would say invented Barack Obama. Mister Axelrod was scathing about East Coast Democratic elites lecturing working class America and saying to them, lecturing them and almost saying to them, someday you can be like us, thought that your entire life coming from the advantages you had. How do we get to where Axelrod wants the Democrats to be, which is they don't lecture the working class of America.
They voted for Trump yesterday.
I think that final a couple of days, Kama should have been in a diner having a cup of coffee and apple pie with a couple of the guys instead of Oprah and Beyonce. But you know that said, Look, I'm an Ivy League guy, I'm for granted, so I'm hardly the person to say we are going to be the party of the working families. But you've got to reach out to BP got to talk to people every day. I go to the factory line and make sure people
have a sense that we're there for them. You know, Washington under Biden, they worked very many business people at all in that administration. Could I have been led by a business guy? Ned?
How do you think Democrats should work with the Trump administration over the next four years?
Well, the next two years is going to have the House, the Senate, the White House, and the Supreme Court. My job, Paul, is to I'm a governor. I've got to work with the president. I can't sit around on the sidelines just getting angry. We work with the White House every day and everything from the infrastructure bill, see if that gets continued, Healthcare is going to be probably at risk right now. You look at what happens to Obamacare in the exchanges.
These are all places I've got to work very closely with the White House.
Governor, what are you telling your fellow Democrats this morning as they wake up and they think about the future.
But away to Cyanai's ball, the president won.
He won big.
He won't be complaining about the outcome and complaining about electoral fraud. I'm pretty sure about that. And we got to do is we got to stand up for our values every day, remind people why we were voted back in, you know, in bigger numbers, and make sure we also realize that we have to work with the White House. That's what the deal is.
Ned Lamont, you have been a businessman.
I mean I love this, Governor Lamont volunteering at the Warren Harding High School in Bridgeport. For those of you across the nation, Bridgeport is not Greenwich. To cut to the chase, Ned Lamont, how do you get the Democrats to understand that it's not just about billionaire taxes, it's not about unrealized capital gains. It's about endorsing entrepreneurship. Is mister Trump, in his own unique way, has endorsed.
I thought that Kamla was getting there when you talked about the opportunity society, less about handouts, more about ladders and allowing people to start their own business and maybe own their own home. That's what he tried to do it. Kinetically, we've had more new business startups than ever before. We used to offer big incentives to see if we're going to direct big companies here. Now we're allowing a lot of small companies to get some of the capital they need to start up, and it's.
Worthing so ned the future of the Democratic Party here. How quickly do you think that this party will pivot? And how much does it need to pivot do you think?
Look, I think it was a waybuck call. Like I said, I hope there is some interest faction going on. And you know, we we ignored the border for too long. They say, what's the difference between you and Joe Biden. I would have shut down that border to you legal immigration on day one. I mean that was an answer that I think was needed.
Governor, one final question this morning. I know it's an incredibly busy day for you. There's going to be a national governor's meeting here coming up. After this seismic shift to the right that we see in America. Give us the tone, the bipartisan tone of the governors of America is they address this new Washington.
One.
When the White House calls, you're there, we have the holiday dinner and we get together. I think it will be Joe Biden's finale if I'm not mistaken. I got to check the dates. Sure, And governors, you know we fewled maybe publicly privately. You're in the kitchen and you roll up your slaves and say, how you handle that Medicaid reimbursement issue. Let me tell you what we're doing. So I'd like to think there's a little more of
that collaboration going on at the governor level. I don't see it watching it.
Governor, what are you going to do about Amtrak between New York and Boston? How can we you know, what what can you do to help us with the Amtrak between New York and Boston.
I'm afraid we're the choke point on that time because it was built a long time ago. It winds around. But that said, when the infrastructure built a little credit there to Joe Biden, that's going to make an enormous difference. We're straightened out the tracks. We'll never be like Beijing the Shanghai, but we'll be able to get another miles an hour of bus speed out of this and that helps you.
Yeah. Nick Burns is over his ambassador to China folks, showing the trains, the perfect trains of China, while Paul and I are on the acceleg one.
Why have we stopped outside?
You?
Even Nedlamont, the Democrat of Connecticut. Thank you so much.
You're listening to the Bloomberg Surveillance Podcast. Catch us live weekday afternoons from seven to ten am. Easter Listen on Apple car Play and Android Auto with a Bloomberg Business app, or watch us live on YouTube.
Well the Robinhood Now Steph Guild joins us. She's the head of investment Strategies. I love the note you sent here.
I got to go to the bottom of the note. The Doge moved off the election last night.
There. Look, we had huge amount of volume. We had eleven times the normal overnight volume. We had election contracts, four hundred million election over, four hundred million election contracts.
What's an election contract?
We launched them on October twenty eighth, and you could make your decision whether you wanted to Trumper, Harris and By. I think it was something like nine thirty or ten o'clock last night. It was eighty five to fifteen Trump, and it was well before it was decided. So our you know, our customers, our customers.
The answer my question. The Doge was traded last night.
The Doge was traded last night. Crypto was traded last night. DJT was traded last night. Tesla was traded last night, all of it.
So I guess, so what's driving this volume thing? Was it just the excitement around the election and the potential for change and people were putting in the Trump trade last night because we're seeing the Trump trade in the in the futures markets.
Yeah.
Yeah, it was business as usual. We were watching the markets, or at least our customers trading, and they were doing things like, you know, buying the video and then selling as it was rallying after the dip it took on October thirty. First they buying into pell andeer it rallied on earnings. They were you know, those are the things they normally do. And then in the overnight you saw all of the election stuff start to happen in the activity.
And how did the platform perform in terms of trading eleven times usual volume?
Very smoothly, very smoothly. We were all up late at night.
So just bring us back to Robinhood.
How many customers do you have, what did they like? What kind of volume do you did they trade?
I mean, we have over twenty million customers and we do we do a lot of volume, depends on the day. That's why I said like overnight eleven times was you know one of our records, not the record, but one of the records.
So I've never even mentioned the stock on air, just because it's so politically supercharged. Trump Media and Technology Group court TMTG, the symbols DJT. I guess the trades are the prospects for the president? Is it a moonshot this morning? Is it a meme stock?
Is it like to the moon because of the outcome?
Yeah, I mean, it's absolutely correlated with the election. I you know, we've seen the financials of the company. Historically speaking, they haven't been that strong.
But wait, wait, wait, Lisa, your offspring was on this right he's day trading Lisa's Lisa's offspring voted for the first time.
He's day trading DJT office laptop.
Right.
Oh yeah, all night, Paul thirty four to forty three right.
Now, it's amazing. Who is a typical customer of the robin Hood platform?
I would say, so, I've shared this before, but there were average ages thirty four, and it's definitely more male than female. Okay, and you know, professionals like working professionals. It's a pretty wide gamut. And we've definitely seen an uptick in those that are interested in coming to our platform with a lot of the activities we've made.
No news today it's nine to twenty two Wall Street Time. Are you going to pop USPX called fifty eight hundred? Can you round it up to six thousand? M bloombers.
I mean I had a twenty percent probability of going to six thousand. I think my one concern is that, you know, last time Trump came to be president, interest rates were around two They're over four now. Valuations were eighteen times, they're twenty two times now. And you know, I think the single biggest financial issue we're going to face in the next few months and the next year is going to be the deficit. We're at one point eight trillion and tariffs. We made eighty billion in tariffs
last year. Like that's not I don't know how that fills the gap. So I think that to me makes me a little more cautious, which is why I'm kind of sticking to the six thousand versus going a little higher right now.
So what are the real risks to the market right here? Do you see because we do have rates coming down, looks like earnings are pretty solid, and yeah, looks pretty solid for earnings.
I think earnings actually this past season has been a little bit disappointing in my opinion. They started out with seven percent expected during his growth, we're coming in, you know, round four percent. And margins have been the thing that have been in focus for several quarters in a row, and it didn't improve this time. And I think the longer you have not great margins, the longer companies have
to really think about their costs. And I think inflation is certainly an issue, especially with the you know, the expectation of the some of the policies that Trump has spoken to.
I hope you can come.
Back again because I'm looking at the DOGE and the DOGE is up eighty five percent since like, you know, a trump Ian moonshot here. Where were you on this, Paul, You're such.
A whisky now. I missed that one October of this year.
Tom Buddy's going I didn't even Bloomberg has a quote on the DOGE.
Sure X d G.
I didn't know that exactly. I'm learning every day. Stephanie Gilt, thank you so much for showing so Robert.
This is the Bloomberg surveillance podcast. Listen live each weekday starting at seven am Eastern on applecar Play and Android Auto with a Bloomberg Business app. You can also listen live on Amazon Alexa from our flagship New York station, Just Say Alexa playing Bloomberg eleven thirty.
A couple days ago, we were in a planning meeting. We do this like three am.
It's a zoom call with like twenty five people on the call, and you know, I just sort of shut up and had my first cup of coffee and I cut in and I said, I just want Peter Troubowitz on. I don't want anybody else on. Why do I want Peter Trubowitzan, Well, he was at LBJ. Some would say he founded LBJ back in nineteen seventy at the University of Texas and now holds court at the London School
of Economics. And yeah, he takes a geopolitics sense, But I thought on domestic politics, if you got LBJ and LC going, this is someone to talk to as well off your latest book looking at Fractured Liberalism, Professor Tubowitz, how fractured This morning is LBG Democratic Party.
Tom. It's great to be with you and Paul and Lisa, it's been a bit been a while, takes a seismic shock, huh. I would say the Democratic Party is shell shock right now, and it's going to take some doing for the party to kind of rally. There's many things about this that are stunning. With Trump's victory, I think probably you know the fact that it was so broad based that it you know, you can identify when you look at the
exit certain groups and so forth. But he basically overperformed his numbers, his performance in twenty twenty essentially across the board. And me, the most stunning thing is that he cracked the forty seven percent you know where the vote. Yeah, absolutely, I mean that, and that's what gives him the basis for saying he's got a manage.
But Professor, if we read our Robert Carroll, we got an LBJ from another time in place, who is the definition of pragmatic before Vietnam ran them over? We need a pragmatic Democratic Party, I would suggest even Republicans need a pragmatic Democratic party to engage the debate. Pure research of New Jersey says the far left makes up say,
twelve percent of the American public. How do the Democrats in your study of history, how do they move to the middle, out to the midterm and then on to twenty twenty eight.
Well, I mean, you know, I think there's going to be a lot of soul searching. But I suspect or what I think will happen, is that we will see democrats. A very strong argument put forth to focus on the basics, jobs, the environment, education, civil rights schools at the local, the state, and the national levels. But it is true on both sides the extremes, there needs to be movement towards towards
the center. I thought the New Yorker front cover this week kind of said it all about America, where it's got statue of liberty on a tight rope over. I. Yes, it's New York City, And you know, even with a stunning victory like this, it's still a very divided country, a pretty evenly divided country.
Peter, you're over at the London School of Economics. What's the feeling within London and the UK as they come as they understand the results of the US election.
Well, I think people think about this. I think you need to distinguish between the political and the policy implications here, and not only with respect to the UK, but let's say more broadly Europe. I think politically Trump's victory is going to embolden anti globalist, populist sentiment in the UK but elsewhere, just as it did in twenty sixteen. I
think there's no two ways about that. At the level of policy, you know, what people are talking about are the implications of the victory in Moscow, in Jerusalem, in Beijing, and here I think things as well as in Europe, and here I think things cut in different ways. You know, in Moscow, in Jerusalem, I think, you know, it's basically enhanced Putin and Netanyahu's negotiating positions vis A VI, Kiev and Hamas respectively. They'll be bolstered those positions in European capitals.
And this is true in London as well. The result is, you know, it's only going to fuel worried about what it means for America's longstanding commitment to European security. And I think also given what Trump has said about the board ten to twenty percent tariff, European access to American market, to the American market.
Peter Trubowitz the London School of Economics with his Friendshill of Arkansas the Republican to.
Be with us.
In a bit, the Dow puts it on again. We're up three percent, up three point one percent. We don't have a forty I can't believe him saying this a forty four thousand print. We're not there yet. I got fifty nine one hundred SPC. It's not futures, that's trading, and Nasdaq was lagging up about one point seven percent, Nasik one hundred dollars two point two percent.
Peter, what would you like to see the Trump administration do as it relates to tariffs that seem to be one of the few economic discussion points here in this election were terrorists? How do you think this plays out.
Well?
I mean, I I think it would be good on this side of the pond. I think there would be there's a real strong desire, given the outcome here, to have consultations about this. But it's not obvious to me that that's what's going to happen. And if Trump does slap tariffs, there will almost certainly be retaliation here as well, and that's a downward spiral, and you know, one doesn't
know where that goes. I mean, I think the bigger question in some respects is what happens on the other side, and with respect to Beijing, where he's talking about imposing a minimum of a sixty percent tariff on Chinese goods, and you know, Beijing didn't take it lying down in twenty seven and twenty eighteen, and they won't take it lying down this time. You know, it's hard to say there needs to be discussion in conversation.
Professor, I want to fold this over into our next guests.
One Offul french Hill of Arkansas with the GOP Arkansas, of course calling early because I think there's like three Democrats in the state or something. Peter Trubowitz, I've talked to french Shill before about an old style of GOP, which is Frenchhill. Maybe it's former President Bush and his father, or maybe it's even Winthrop Rockefeller who changed the culture and fabric of Arkansas on a time of civil rights.
You own the high ground on this at LBJ. Where are the Republicans after Trump?
It's Trump's party, and I think that you know, the Liz Cheneys and others who are in the party, the so called more moderate wing, these old style kind of let's call them Reagan Republicans. You might be going back even a little further, but Reagan Republicans, they're in the minority inside the party, and the party has changed, and
it's i would say it's political base has changed. If you just look at I think one of the most stunning things in the exit polls is the breakdown by education, where you just see the college educated voters versus non college educated voters. It is a very wide gap, with the ladder going towards a Republican park.
Peter Truree, what's honored to have you on with us today from the London School of Economics.
This is the Bloomberg Surveillance Podcast. Listen live each weekday starting at seven am Eastern on applecar Play and Android Auto with the Bloomberg Business app. You can also watch us live every weekday on YouTube and always on the Bloomberg Terminal.
We go to the Grace of Arkansas in Frenchhill, taking out fifty nine percent. I think it is the vote against a good candidate. He joins us now in victory Frendshill of the second Congressional District in Arkansas.
Frenchchill. This nation, whatever they're suasion.
Yearns for the grace of Marcus Jones in French kill, where you have an election, you get a good result, you call up Marcus Jones, he calls you up, you say thank you, and we move on with our civics in our nation.
Can we get that in a second Trump term?
Morn and Paul Morning. Tom. I hope so, Tom, because we won the popular vote for the first time as Republican since two thousand and four, and obviously a substantial and possibly growing electoral college victory, and if the election holds, we'll have a significant Republican majority in the Senate, and I believe we'll end up with maybe somewhere between two hundred and twenty two and two hundred and twenty six
seats in the House. We have two hundred and twenty today, so not a big majority over the two hundred and eighteen needed to control the House. But I think that sends a message let's try to work together and let's produce results for the American people. Let's not squander that popular electoral college victory and Republican majorities in the House and Senate.
Congressman, what would be or what do you think the Parties to Do list should be at this point. Given it the Republicans now control the White House, the Senate, and potentially the House, what would to do to the switch it to look like?
You know, there's so much undone. Paul, this isn't where I would start, but I think it's essential politically and that we need to have legislated solutions that both parties can vote for that will secure the border and reform our immigration system. We keep walking up to the edge of doing it, but not doing it. So I think that could be important in that maybe we could perform the green card system. We could have encouragement for people
who want to move here and start a business. We could take care of the many, many people in this country legally awaiting a green card who've been here for years to work. Anyway, you get my point. I think
that's an issue that's easily skipped over. The important issues for the Trump administration going into its first hundred days, besides confirming their leaders are using budget reconciliation to try to continue to bring federal spending down from the pandemic avalanche of spending, and pick and choose among the tax cuts that are expiring in twenty twenty five as to what to keep and then finally work together with recent Supreme Court cases that have limited federal agency discretion under
the so called Chevron deference to get in Congress working on a regulatory budget, a regulatory agenda.
Part of the Frenchhill charm is you had to meet a payroll.
You ran a bank in Arkansas or two or three, I can't remember the details.
Frenchchhill.
We've got a banking industry in America in a jump condition. JP Morgan is up three standard deviations, up twenty dollars off of trend. Few others the more brokerage type, you know, banking type, Gold and Saxsmoregan, Stanley Paul doing just as well. But you know, I guess that's good for America. Are you going to see Friendshill here? How can we get more growthiness with our debt and deficit off of a run rat at two point eight percent?
Do we really want a boom economy?
Frendshill?
I think we want a sustainable fiscal situation Tom, and we don't have that running of six or seven percent deficit to GDP on an annual basis. That's just not sustainable. And we need to have some consensus, and it's gonna take by partisan leadership to do that. I hope President Trump will set that tone. Neither Vice President Harris nor a former President Trump when they were campaigning talk much about the budget deficit. Fact maybe the opposite, And I
think that's important to set that standard. It doesn't have to try to go immediately to balance, but it's can we put our current financing needs of the country on a more sustainable footing? And I think that's true in the regulatory budget as well. I think that will be positive for economic growth and for a healthy financial system in French.
I mean, I think a lot of people. You know, the polls show that the American people want Congress to deal with the deficits and the national debt, but the political will just has never seem to be there. What's needed to shift that narrative?
Do you think, well, it's such a good point.
You know, the House Budget Committee last year Republicans controlled the House, but it voted thirty to zero, so it had all the Democrats and all the Republicans voting on the idea of a debt commission. I'm not sure that's the right approach because I think it's too broad. I would really propose that we tackle something like social security reform for the out years to assure seniors in the out years that they'll be a solid social security system, and do what Reagan and Tip O'Neil did. Tip O'Neil
was the Democratic Speaker in the early eighties. Reagan in his first term. They appointed Alan Greenspan a chair, a commission with an up or down vote in Congress, like the Base Closing Commission of the late eighties. Here's some reforms, here's a way to make social security sustainable. And if we tackle it like that, that puts us on a more sustainable financial footing, assure seniors in the futures about
the value and capabilities of social security. And I would remind people no one lost their election in nineteen eighty four when they voted for that. In fact, Reagan got a landslide Frenchhill.
Last night, the FAM was gathered around watching the broadcast. We were chowing down the Tyson razorback nuggets. I mean, they were going down like nothing. A Congressman in one of the cherubs said, how did I told him that Frenchhill would be on the show, very excited about it, and they said, how did Bill Clinton get elected governor in Arkansas. How did Bill Clinton third, two years old Frendshill grabbed sixty three percent of the vote in republican conservative Arkansas. How did that happen?
Well?
Back when he did that, it was democratically conservative Arkansas. It was a super majority of the legislature. County judges, elected officials were all Democrats in the seventies and early eighties, but they were centrists, what you might call blue dog Democrats, and Clinton put himself at the front of their parade of a forward looking, pro growth blue dog.
Can the Democrats, your opponents, can they get back to a blue dog attitude?
They could, but they haven't so far. I mean, I see this every year for the decade I've served.
In the House.
They doubled down on what I call a center left progressivism that you find maybe in Brooklyn, but you don't find in Conway, Arkansas, and they try to run on it, and it hadn't worked for them yet.
I'm looking here at what's going on, and you know, Paul, I think the Razorbacks sort of, you know, they sort of have a buye here, like you.
Know, raising eleventh in the SEC.
It's tough.
They need more funding. I mean the.
Team to watch is Vanderbilt. The last time Vanderbilt beat Alabama was an eighty four. You got a Reagan landslode. Vanderbilt beat Alabama last year for the first time in four decades, and we get this popular vote in Electoral College vote for Trump.
It's too much. Take a note in the does anybody awake in the control room?
Next time? Friendshills on, We got to get Damien Sassa on. They have a Vanderbilt moment.
Oh yeah, Congressman, thank you so much.
Congratulation to your party for a stunning election victory. It scenes across America.
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