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Abby Joseph Cohen does not remember eighteen fifty six. She's too young for this, but she does know what unified government is. It's really an interesting thing, a great paragraph. I'm stealing this from News Nation. I has some nice history here if I can find it. But unified government is more common than we think. There's been twenty three times Democrats have had unified government, twenty five times Republicans have had unified government. Abbi Joseph Cohen, a Columbia University
will get to the markets. Abby, is gridlock good or can we get something done with unified government that supports American finance and capitalism.
Wow, that's a big question, Tom, and thank you for inviting me to be here this morning. It depends what unified government decides to do. So clearly, if you have a policy agenda that is favorable, unified government is good news. If not, there are a number of things to watch out for.
Abby, What do you expect here? We've had obviously a big, big change on the political stage here in the United States. What's your expectation of a second Trump presidency and what does that mean for markets? We've certainly had a big rally yesterday in financial assets. What do you expect going forward?
Well, let me put the marker out there, which is don't know, because we don't yet know, for example, who the key members of the administry will be. We don't know who the Secretary of Treasury will be, for example, nor do we have an idea of who some of the other members of the cabinet will be. The other thing that we're not sure about, of course, is what happens going forward with regard to regulatory policy. Now there is a presumption that less regulation is good for the economy.
That's not always the case. Obviously regulation is not always perfect, but there are a number of areas in which looser regulation is in fact quite destabilizing and inflationary. So, for example, looser anti trust policy is typically associated with higher inflation, and that's something that we need to keep an eye on. The Other thing that we need to keep an eye on because members of the Trump organization have been chatting about this, and when I say Trump Organization, I'm referring
to the campaign, not the company. They've been talking about providing a very easy regulatory environment for crypto and that's something that could in fact be problematic with regard to whether it creates a source of potential instability for the financial markets.
Listen to that. I mean, I don't know. Let's do it. Let's do a crypto data check here right now. I quoted the Doze yesterday for the first time ever seventy four thousand, seven hundred down eleven hundred. We had seventy five thousand print on bitcoin.
We did for bitcoin.
Sot's let's let's make the point, however, Tom, and that is there has been some discussion among Trump advisors that digital currency could be used on bank balance sheets for regulatory purposes. And basically, over over time, over history, we see that the best assets to put on bank balance sheets are the ones that are not quite so volatile.
Exactly so politicous. She's just got it down, cult. She's laughing at me because she knows exactly where I am on this poot.
She knows what she's doing.
Abby.
I guess the last time we chatted, you were concerned about concentration in the market, as are a lot of people when you think about the Magnificent seven or some of the AI trade here. Has anything changed there? How do you think about that? Just the health of this equity market here?
Yeah, wonderful question, and we if we had a crystal ball and we knew what earnings were going to be like in twenty twenty five, we might be able to answer it better. Yesterday's close on the S and P five hundred in excess of fifty nine hundred is something that really is touching the top end of the range that many people had expected as it relates to valuation
for the S and P five hundred. So to think that the market in general can go higher from here, you really need to have an enthusiastic view about economic growth next year. But we also now need to worry about the interest rate aspect valuation. While there's been so much focus about how much the stock market responded yesterday, there was also a big response in the bond market, and with higher interest rates that creates more of an obstacle to equity valuation as well.
Are the earnings that we're seeing abby this quarter last quarter, and more importantly, kind of the forecast. Are the earnings there to support this market or do we really have some valuation concerns here?
Based upon consensus earnings expectations, things look like we are okay, but clearly this very little margin for error. So should there be some unpleasant surprises perhaps in one of the high profile names on the company side, or perhaps some unpleasant inflation news or interest rates notably higher from current levels, That in fact could be problematic, But let's make Let's go back to the original question, and that is mag
seven versus the rest of the market. There are much better valuation opportunities amongst small and MidCap names, and some people might also argue that there's some opportunities outside the United States. The problem, of course, is that the US economy is looking far more robust than many of the nations are at this point.
Eby and I think about, you know, if this had occurred, all this maelstrom that we're in right now, it occurred thirty years ago, you'd be on with Lou Rukaiser Friday night and Lou would turn to you and say, okay, what is the exuberance ed Yard Denny, who we all respect immensely, models out the roaring twenties. He models out a bull market. I'm not asking you to give me an S and P call, but are the roaring twenties that we get with a Republican House, Senate and presidency.
Can they lead to an exuberance that causes harm? Or can we be managed in our enthusiasm.
The exuberance that you were referring to earlier, Tom, when Alan Greenspan spoke about it was irrational exuberance. And the irrational exuberance that green Span often referred to was not just in the equity market but also in the fixed income market. So we need to be looking there very carefully. And one of my concerns, and I think needs to be carefully monitored by investors, is what will some of
these new policies mean with regard to inflation. You know, the starting point is quite good if you exclude housing, which I know is a big exclusion because it does harm many people. But if you exclude housing prices, right now, core inflation is already under two percent, so it's a great starting point. There are, however, some possibilities that inflation could be rising from these levels. So, for example, if you have fiscal policy that stimulates demand but not supply,
all of the things being equal, that's inflation. Getting rid of the Affordable Care Act is inflationary on a long term basis. Not paying attention to climate change is inflationary. Think about the wildfire right now in California. How much that costs to bring under control, to rebuild, and then of course insurance costs go up for everyone afterwards. Just think about insurance costs right now in the state of Florida because of the bad storms over the last few years.
Is the fiscal deficit our debt and deficit. Is it a constraint for President elect Trump?
It is a constraint only if from a political standpoint it is a constraint right now. With the dollar as robust as it is, I think that they will be demand for treasury securities from around the world. And I also think that at current rates and maybe higher rates that we'll be seeing, there will be demand for those security and we can finance it. The question, of course,
is the long term one. If we have a situation where we in fact see lower growth in population and labor force, that does not bode well for example, for the funding for social security and other needs of the government.
And there's something going on in America. For those of you that listen every day, it's just plain and simple. I disaggregate. There are the haves the have nots. I think we saw that within the tension, the disparity, the polarization of this election. And I want to wrap it around the Nobel Prize of Osimo Blu Robinson and Simon Johnson. We hope to speak to Simon Johnson here in the coming days the Laureate on productivity his book Power and Progress,
Abby Joseph Cohen with US now Columbia University. Abby, there's a labor input, there's a capital input, and there's a strange thing total total factor productivity. Bill Easterley at a school south of Columbi makes clear it's a huge part of economic growth. Is our productivity gain going to an ever narrower part of the American public.
I think you've answered your question and the answer is yes, of course it has been. And one of the things that any new administration needs to address is to make sure that all of our people feel that they're participating in the American growth and the American dream. And one of the things that we need to focus on, of course, is long term investment, by which I mean are we investing in productivity, are we investing in education in our people?
And are we investing in the scientific merit and the scientific progress that gave us so much economic growth over the past few decades. And the answer to those questions will really have a dramatic impact on all of us. One of the things I'm concerned about, quite frankly, is something called Schedule F, which has been talked about during the last few years. It was something that was in fact enacted by the prior Trump administration, but was gotten
rid of immediately when mister Biden came into office. Now what is it. It's basically not looking at the top level of political appointees in the US government, but the next forty thousand. So there are ten thousand political appointees. Below them are the forty thousand experts in a variety of categories, and under Schedule F, many of these positions would be converted to political appointments rather than appointments based
upon what do you know? And I worry that this will affect, for example, a number of our science agencies and will also affect a number of the agencies that are directly involved in boosting productivity throughout the economy.
Again, we've been so focused on the political agenda over the last several days that we almost forget we've got a FED meeting today and that historically has had an impact on these markets.
Are future FED Chairman Abby Joseph Colin. I think she's shortlisted by President Trump.
Very good, Abby. What do you what do you what do you expect to hear from this FED today?
You guys might recall that I started my career at the FED. I was a very junior economist, and I don't think I'm being invited back. The FED always works best when it is a political when it looks at the facts that it has in front of it and makes a decision about what needs to get done. Obviously, they do a forecast based upon their prospects for the economy, and at a time like this, whenever a new administration comes in, you're never quite sure what the new policies
are really going to be. There's a big difference between the campaign and governing. So I believe that the FED will make an apolitical decision. They'll look at the data in front of them, which basically says the US economy is doing well. Inflation has come down except for housing as I mentioned before, and of course the price of eggs, which the Fed can control because of Avian flu. And I think the markets have it right in terms of expecting a twenty five basis point reduction in the FED
Funds rate. But let's be clear. What is happening in recent weeks, of course, is that intermediate and long yields are going up. So what we're ending up with is a steeper yield curve, a more normal looking yell curve. And who borrows at the FED funds rate? You know, it's not individuals, it's not corporations, it's banks, So the banks will be borrowing at a somewhat lower FED Funds rate.
The thing to watch, particularly if you're an equity investor, is what's happening at the intermediate and long yield level. And yesterday those yield all moved higher.
So abby we're eighty percent through earnings for the S and P five hundred here, what have you seen?
What have you heard?
What? In terms of guidance and outlook here from this earning cycle for corporate America.
The cycle has gone well. The economy underneath it has been growing well, not as quickly as it was in the immediate post pandemic period, but it's a good, solid, sustainable rate of increase. What I often look at, as do so many others, particularly this time of year, is the forward guidance. And what we have seen is that the forward guidance, why and large, is good. There are
some exceptions. There are some companies with idiosyncratic problems that have decided not to issue forward guidance, but in general, what companies are saying is consistent with the consensus economic forecast, which is that there is no recession on the near term horizon. For the United States. Growth is pretty good, and it's good enough to generate not just profits but
also jobs. Last month's data were disrupted by strikes and storms and so on, but it looks like we're creating enough new jobs for everyone who wants to look and get one. There's obviously friction. People need to take some time to find the right job for them, but this is an economy that's doing quite well.
Abby Joseph Coin, thank you so much. Thrilled to have you on here. Two days after the nation votes Abby Joseph Cohen of Columbia University.
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I'm not going to mince words. We protect the copyright of all of our guests. Go to Morgan's family to get a jewel of a lengthy post election report by Monica where ahead of US policy at Morgan Stanley Wealth Management. Let me just get to exhibit one because it's sixteen hundred Pennsylvania Avenue. They're going to get to Exhibit one. Net interest outlays could account for nearly two thirds of
the federal deficit. Forget about all the happy happy what's the budget constraint on the president elect?
Yeah, that's a great question. Your first Thanks for having you guys. It's great to be back.
But when your last time, yeah, it.
Was Zetler like, it was a huge continue fantastic.
Now, when we're thinking about the debt and deficit, what's important here is if you have a unified government, if we get to a place where Congress is unified, debt becomes less of a factor. Yes, we have this ballooning interest rate piece, it's going to have to become part of the discussion. But when you have you by government, that's when time to get your wishless items through and
so it becomes less about fiscal responsibility. So the best thing for the Detton deficit is actually to have that gridlock Congress because then fiscal responsibility because the calling card.
So what's going to happen here without a gridlock Congress?
Yeah. So, I mean, if you're looking at just the baseline for the Tax Custom Jobs Act and you're extending that, it adds about five trillion to the federal deficit ten year period, ten year period. What it doesn't account for these estimates is any kind of government reduction or efficiency measures that Trump has talked about Musk measures, musk measures, if you want to call it that. I like that, I might use it copyright, but tail gets it. You know.
The other factor is that there's no other sort of revenue raisers or clawbacks. So, for example, if they rolled back some of the clean energy tax credits, money that they can bring back into the government, well.
A clawback at home is where you order the offspring, they have to eat the left over seamless exactly.
That's a clawback monica. They say financial services, and we saw the big stocks. JP Morgan, we're sending Goldman sacs yesterday. Just sore Yep talk to us about financial services and how a Trump and a Republican administration Republican Congress will look at the financial services industry.
Yeah.
I mean a lot of the rip from yesterday is because of the deregulation promise, and that's what you're likely to see, especially with financials. You're likely to see an SEC that is shaped differently and let has different leadership, as well as potential push on the basil three endgame provisions to be looser and more flexible on the cap requirements. So that's going to be, you know, a really big factor.
You know, other areas that are deregulatory rate or AI tech, crypto, so we're likely to continue to see tailings in those areas.
How about it.
I think if I'm an M and a banker or an M and a attorney, I feel pretty good now, because I mean the regulatory environment that from the Federal Trade Commission to the Department of Justice it's been tough to get deals done and improved. Is that also a benefit?
That is going to be a huge beneficiary. Lena Kon does not have a job in January, right, I mean, she probably will be employed, but not in the government. And so at this point, you know, that's going to be an area that we look to. You could see m and A activity pick up as a response to that.
Are you paying attention to like a cabinet, a Trump cabinet, because I'm not sure where the Trump cabinet is going to come from or when we're going to hear about that, but my assumption is that's going to be important as to where policy goes.
Yeah, and we're definitely paying attention to that. We're paying particular attention to, you know, who's you know, adding up the treasury. One of the things that is critical that we saw even at the RNC convention was that this is really Trump's party, So a lot of the rank and file are officially sort of sideline. At this point, the party has changed, the mood has changed, and so it'll be a lot of folks that have ideological similarities with Trump.
Part of the grid arm is on your Rezumi, director of capital budget and economic deve development point the City of New York, it means it gets great Yankee stickers. Yeah, not that that means anything, Monica. Just to cut to the chase with the immigration shock of this election, how do we deport exit remove a migrant immigrant from say New York City or Chicago, doesn't really matter. How do you actually budgetarily affect that.
It's going to be greater funding towards the Department of Homeland Security. That's gonna be the first place that they that they increase spending. We think that that's going to be underneath a national defense uh and security budget line. Now, if we're thinking about the actual practicality of it state by state.
Right state by state, it's.
Going to be an issue. You're going to have New York you know, fight to keep people you know safe for you know, a sanctuary, especially in sanctuary city structures. That's going to be a problem.
That's going to be an Albany issue in the case of New York, not a New York City issue.
New York City could get involved, but Albany is going to probably be leading the charge. Now, the thing that's important here is that the states that are friendly to these policies, you know, will open the doors and allow for a smooth process. Doesn't mean that the DHS and the federal government doesn't have jurisdiction in parts of New York.
I'm not the expert on that, but I can tell you that the legal battles in the Blue states that especially take their sanctuary city responsibilities you know seriously, that could become, you know, a real problem for the administration.
Thank you so much to you in the Morgan Stanley for your perspective on this. We'd love to have you in as this debate continues into two thousand and twenty five. Monica Buerra is head of US Policy for Morgan Stanley.
This is the Bloomberg Surveillance Podcast. Listen live each weekday starting at seven am Eastern on applecar Play and Android Auto with the Bloomberg Business app. You can also listen live on Amazon Alexa from our flagship New York station, Just Say Alexa playing Bloomberg eleven thirty.
Jackie Bowie Sarah partnered on YouTube. You can see that Jackie Bowie is esconced in this November with the Red Poppy. Tell our American audience you have a jeweled red poppy. It is lovely tell us of the British and World War One and November eleventh and the red poppy.
Yeah well, I mean it's such a big day for us in the UK where and whilst the poppy is to represent also the poppy fields after the war ended, the celebration and recognition on the eleventh of November is really through all the wars and people who've given their lives for their country. So yeah, we take it very seriously. You can buy lots of different types of poppies now and obviously all of that the nation goes to the Royal British Legion for the veterans.
Very good. Let us talk about the loneliness of the United Kingdom. We have a left government, a labor government, Tories or Trance. John Burns Murdoch has a fabulous chart today showing the crater the Tories versus Italy versus Trump in the election here in the United States. How lone is the United Kingdom right now? Within G seven.
Yeah. Well, it certainly feels like some of the political statements that were made in the run up to the election and afterwards are really divergent from what's happening in the rest of Europe. We talked briefly obviously this morning, just on the stance on immigration in different countries, taking a slightly stronger view on asylum seekers countries that were very pro immigration before. So the Labor government have come in and kind of paused the previous government's route to
taking illegal immigration illegal migrants to Rwanda. That was the plan to take them for the processing and then decide whether they had the right to remain in the UK. So that plan is now being completely taken away and we're just kind of waiting to see. So yeah, it does feel that we're the UK is sort of out in a line, which is interesting, right because we're an island, so if anything, we should potentially have a stronger position.
So the Bank of a cut rates again today. It was a sense of kind of what the Bank of England is thinking in terms of interest rates and the economy in the UK.
Yeah, So, I mean twenty five basis points was as expected. If we had taught just a week ago before the budget, we would have said twenty five basis points for November and a further twenty five likely in December, and that's been the big shift. So the UK budget was absolutely about tax raising, about spending in public services with no conditions of improvement and productivity, and that has led the market to start to reduce their expectation that we'll get
a further twenty five in December. I think the other thing to bear in mind is everyone's focused in this headline inflation target, which you know, at the two percent we've obviously the Bank of England is just out so we've not kind of digested the full statement yet, but it looks like the inflation forecast for next year we'll be around two point six two point seven percent, So you're starting to see that you're not getting inflation at that two percent target.
Why is the American Catherine man as a member of the Bank of England dissenting and saying don't cut rates? Is it a phenominal GDP crow she is?
I mean she's always been kind of on that side of the fence if you look at her voting history, so she's been consistent for one. But yeah, you're right, I mean an eight to one vote with her being the only center in this time round. She continues to focus on that inflation number and particularly the underlying services inflation and wage inflation in the UK, saying that this inflation issue is not under control, so rates should be kept higher.
All right.
If Tom and I were to come over to the UK, which we're working on that as we speak through her and go to the Highlands or the Midlands, and what are the person on the street, what are they saying about the economy in the UK these days?
I would say it's very similar to the US in that everyone is talking about and we say this cost of living as a catch holl and the major things for the UK, which I think is the same in the US as food prices. The second yeah, And the second thing for the UK, which I don't feel you get the same situation here is fuel prices. So we have huge taxes on our fuel fuel underlying fuel prices
just higher in the UK. So if you're driving, you know, a combustion engine, non electric car, and the cost of filling up your car and heating your house has gone up massively. I mean, I think my utility bills are probably up about forty five percent.
How can labor ram through tax increases?
Good question.
The debate is very different from here. There's a huge understanding that mister Trump Day one Day two, Day three will extend or codify if you will, the Trump tax cuts. Is it just genuine Clement et Lee austerity from the middle of the twentieth century. Is it just England demands to be austere.
Well you would say it's the opposite, right, because the government are spending like billyo despite the deficit being where it is, again similar to other countries, the UK is not alone in that. But to put through all these tax increases which are to support the public sector. So let's look at where that spending is going. You know, when you're increasing taxes, particularly on employers and national insurance taxation, there's nothing in it which has growth oriented, which is
why it was taken so negatively. I don't think anyone has any issues with government spending if you then end up, you know, really boosting growth. But after the budget was announced, the people saw the extent of the total spend over the next four years, right, but no change to the growth forecast, and.
Like literally almost all of the Tottenham Spurs soccer team threatening to leave the country, which actually would probably be constructive for time.
For exactly just about I don't know how many years on we are from seventy eight years on from Brexit, what's the feeling today, I mean, what's the case.
Yeah, people have stopped complaining about it. I think the one thing I would say though, is it's been really difficult to separate out the impact of Brexit on the economy because we hit COVID right and you're starting to say, well, it's the UK situation because of Brexit or because of COVID. If you dig really deep into it and looking at some of the trade numbers, etc. It looks like the UK is actually done. Okay, okay, So, but it's.
A lot of the dumb question of the day. When you fly to Berlin or Geneva, do you have to go through customs now and passport control?
Yes, so you always had to go through passport control, but you were classed as an EU traveler.
So now you're not. You're not, and it's that much more difficult now.
It depends where you go. So interestingly, if you go to so I had a few trips in the summer fortunately to Palma and New YORKA, so it's been you just go through the electronic gates as normal. The only difference is you have to get a STEMP if you go to Patis or any French airport, you are in the.
That's the news you use. Yeah, I was sort of shocked how easy it was when I went over to Rome last Wen Gates. But the luggage took hours. The luggage was an absolute outrage. It was like people were really upset and.
You've got many pieces of luggage.
We have like Emily Rowland's coming in from John Hancock today and she's been dead on about American exceptionalism by large cap America. Can we buy large cap Footsie?
You can, but the definition of large cap in your global world, I mean large cap Footsie is not going to be very large cap for you Britain. And the other thing, I think we talked about this when I was in before about I don't remember.
I don't remember when I talked to last I remember you dinner.
By the interesting thing for UK stocks is, and you've seen this from your market where there's a lot of the larger companies deciding to dealist from the UK and choose to list in the US because they have a broader investor base and they you know, arguably their stock gets better valued. So a combination of that and the fact that private equity have been doing a lot of take privates in the UK, so d listing companies. The choice of things to invest in the UK is getting smaller and smaller.
Jackie, thank you, what a brief Jackie Boy, thank you so much for chatam at Europe.
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With that question, our conversation of the day on the future of the left, the future of the Democratic Party. Thrilled, just really thrilled. Christina Greer could join us from Fordham. She's truly expert on the pulse of a nation that I guess was defeated we would say two days ago. We'll talk to Professor Greer about that. A lot of investment ideas as well. Again with futures at fourteen, let's get right to it. We're on YouTube. Subscribe to Bloomberg Podcast.
Our polls out there. Please take the poll out at YouTube. Bloomberg Podcast on your commute this morning, Apple car Play, Android Auto and good morning in Washington ninety ninety one FM up to Boston ninety two to nine in Boston from the Interactive Brokers Studios, the Bloomberg Business Flash Lisa Matteo.
After the dowstart, so it's biggest gain in two years yesterday. Right now, down Future is little changed, up about ten points. NAZAC Future is up four tens and percent ninety nine points. We have SMP futures up two tens and percent or fifteen points. We have the two year yield at four point two two percent, that's down four basis points. They yield on the ten year four point three nine percent, that's down three basis points. To currency is a difference
here too, the dollar retreating. It had its best day since twenty twenty two yesterday. Japanese yen stronger, Euro, British pound stronger. We have bitcoin, what a difference a day makes there too, down one and a half percent after it rallied almost ten percent yesterday. It's now at about seventy four thousand. Checking in with two stocks that really stored after Donald Trump was elected president. Shares of dj T they're now down fourteen percent, and shares of Tesla
down about three tens of percent. Moving over to shares of Qualcomm. That's the world's biggest seller smartphone processors. Well, they're up five percent, shares of five percent and had a bullech sales forecast. Smartphone demand picked up, but then you have ARM holdings down three percent. It had a little bit more of a tentative outlook. That is your Bloomberg business flash, Tom and Paul.
Thanks so much. Lisa greatly appreciate it. You know, we've been talking Eric and as we pieced together the show of who we want on to pick up the pieces after concession speech yesterday by Vice President Harris, and the first name that came up holds Court at Fordham University. She holds an absolute franchise. There's no other way to put it on blacks within the political process in America, there's one item which I just say, I love the type. I mean, she sits all day and tries to figure
out these titles. A nation divided still, how a vote for Trump says more about the voter than the candidate himself. That in twenty seventeen, Christina Greer joins us this morning. Christina, there was an eloquence in Vice President Harris's exit yesterday, how do the Democrats pick up the pieces?
And good morning gentlemen. I do think that the Democrats need to come to the table and try and figure out what happened. Now, keep in mind, it's barely been thirty six hours, so this all feels a little bit like Monday morning quarterbacking Go Eagles. So as the Democrats try and figure out a fifty state strategy, as they try and rebuild state houses across the country, as they
try and tap into whatever policy issues beyond just economic issues. Now, keep in mind, you know, many Americans felt they go to the polls because of pockebook issues, but they felt inflation was too high. That you know, when they had their bills at the end of the month, things weren't
going in their direction. It's a complicated story for Democrats to tell to say, well, under Trump and some of his policies, and usually in Republican policies with tax picks to the wealthy, Democrats have to come and rebuild the social safety net that Republicans tend to take away, and
also rebuild the economic foundation of the nation. That's a much longer argument because voters don't really care about how they feel in that present moment, and clearly that message wasn't articulated to the voters the way the democratics needs needed it to be.
To pick up the pieces and looking at the punditry across the East Coast and the elite you're part of the game, you know, the educated elite and all that. As you correctly stay, they have to speak to fifty states. Doesn't that simply mean the left has to move to the middle.
Well, this is where it gets frustrating. I mean, in the past, you know, Jesse Jackson is the architect of the fifty state strategy if you remember his nineteen eighty four but his incredibly successful nineteen eighty eight campaign. But you know, I always show my students the distribution curve right that hump in the middle. In the past, we have had presidents who all clustered around the middle. We had George H. W. Bush, we had Bill Clinton, George W. Bush, Obama.
That is in our modern presidency, that's where presidents hung out. Obama was not a radical about.
This is really important. David Brooks's let's say a couple of weeks ago, was brilliant on this. As you are right now, Professor, what happened? How did the Democrats decide to polarize versus state of the middle as President Obama and President Clinton did well.
The historical context is important because Donald Trump pulled the party far, far, far to the right. Now we've seen people campaign on the margins but then govern and win a general election in the middle. He was successful by never coming to the middle. Never he pulled his party to the far right, because in many ways it's a campaign of populism and the candidate himself. So Democrats tried to chase that as they moved farther and farther to the right and left out a core element of their
base on the left. And so as they try and figure out what that means, some of the concern among Democrats is, since the Democrats have moved more to the center and more to the right, will they stay there or will they go back to the left and really hammer in which I think they did an excellent job, but hammer in some key issues, union membership, making sure public education is accessible, making sure climate change is acknowledged so people don't have to worry about constantly moving because
of climate and becoming climate refugees. Within their own country. There are larger, much more complicated issues that the Democrats were trying to explain to the American public. But Donald Trump sells something very different, and we cannot ignore the fact that he sells a type of brand of American whiteness that is very attractive to a large percentage of
this country and many people who aren't even white. There's an element that James Baldwin explains so much better than I there's an element of white supremacy in this nation that we have to be real about the fact that it still exists that he sells that is incredibly attractive to voters and has been for quite some time.
And Christina, you point on one of the issues. I thought it was really interesting as I start reading some of the analysis of the voting that President Trump did surprisingly well with American and Latino and particularly on the male side. What do you make of that?
Well, I think some of it is just baked in misogyny.
Period.
There's some people men and women, who will never be able to vote for a woman at the top of the ticket. We're one of the few democracies of our stature who's never had a female elected leader. And I think that stands out on the global stage his inroads with African American men, albeit in certain states he went up a few percentage points. And I think that that is a conversation in a black politics sphere because Black people are so ideologically different, but by and large or
trapped in we call a party capture in one particular party. However, black women and Black men are still by and large incredibly more supportive of Kamala Harris and the Democratic Party at large. Latino men and a growing population of Asian American men as well are more attracted to the populism
and the economic promises of Donald Trump. Now they remain to be seen because they were not materialized during his first tenure, but there's a certain level of you know, if Belle Hooks explains sort of supremacy to us of patriarchy, that is incredibly attractive to a lot of new voters.
Chris Christina Geer. Wendy Schiller was on earlier from Brown I think associated with a more democratic tinge of academic politics, and she mentioned how Ducacas went down in flames, and you turn right around and you find a central Southerner in William Jefferson Clinton, and off you go with the Democratic Party recovery. Do we have within a fractured Democratic Party the ability to move to the center, whether it's to the south or the Midwest or the blue wall that Trump took took.
I think we're gonna have to excavate what states. You know, Georgia is increasingly purple. But it's not just the voters, it's the infrastructure. In many of those states, we have you know, secretaries of state that make it harder and harder for people to participate.
We have to.
Excavate what happened in a place North Carolina where Democrats did incredibly well democratic you know, governor, lieutenant governor, attorney general, but somehow the presidency was lost and so and even in Virginia being a little tighter. So it really, honestly for me, depends on who will be in charge of the DNC and the d tripleC to really organize some of the data that we're seeing, and we're still seeing.
We got time. This is a really important Thank you so much, professor for bringing this up. Who would you like to see to take that tough job to pick up the pieces of a shattered left?
Honestly, someone like a Pete Bodhagicge, who clearly has a way of serving as a faithful surrogate but understanding a zeitgeist of the American public that I didn't think I'd ever say that, but he's quite impressive in a three hundred and sixty view.
Professor, don't be a stranger. Thank you so much, Christina Greer, Florida University.
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