2025 Outlook for US Economy and Politics

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I think one of the big changes for twenty twenty five for investors is we're gonna have a new administration here, We're gonna have public in Congress, and what does that mean for policy? What does that mean for markets? Our next guest maybe can help us think about that a little bit, amongst other topics.

Sarah Hunt.

She's a partner chief market strategist at Alpine Saxon Woods. Sarah, thanks so much for joining us here in our studio. When you and your team woke up the day after the election in November, did you change your outlook or think differently about twenty twenty five at all?

I think we definitely got a lot of incoming from clients about what that was going to mean and what was that going to mean for markets and their portfolios.

I think clearly the equity.

Markets took that as a positive signal and in terms of what they think they might get out of a new administration. I think what's happened in the last month is that started to temper a little bit. I think you saw, with both the Fed becoming more hawkish and the fight over the cr that it might not be so easy to get as much done as people thought they could get done out of the gate.

So the question then.

Becomes, how is that going to play out and to what extent do we have to think about that in the way of positioning. But it wasn't like a major positioning shift that happened right after the election.

I know we'll talk about the Federal Reserve a little bit in a minute, but I want to pick up on something you said there, which is what happened with the Continuing Resolution And there were so many odd dynamics that play there. Chief among them, perhaps you have a president elect who was kind of very actively involved in that debate. In that conversation, what did that tell you about what these next four years are likely to be?

Like?

Are you are you expecting kind of a redux of his first term in office or do you feel like you have a playbook from that that's going to make navigating those next four years a little easier.

I'm not sure that there's a true playbook from the first administration, just because there was a lot of chaos going on then too, except maybe the chaos is part of that. But I would say that what that cr fight taught showed us with clarity was you don't have a unified party on a lot of despite the majority, despite the majority in Congress, which is there was some concern that a majority, right, but it's a very slight majority, especially in the House, and it doesn't seem to be

I guess we don't know a whole lot about the incoming Trump administration in their economic policies. I guess what we do know is tariffs, some of their immigration policies, and a lot of folks are concerned that.

That we do know could be inflationary. Is that something that concerns you.

I think it's definitely part of the questions that need to be answered in twenty twenty five, and it's going to be part of the playbook. And the question is going to be do these things get enacted to the extent that they're being discussed right now? Can things move again as quickly as people thought they would? And do we have if we change the immigration policy from a basically an open door to a less open door and

I think it's unclear at the moment.

You mentioned the calls you got from clients after the election. Imagine there's some calls just on this point sort of what those potential policy changes might mean. And we heard from the Fed char to room Powell that he and his colleagues are now beginning to entertain various counterfactuals. What might happen if this trade policy comes through or that, or if the immigration policy is implemented. Dovetail that with analysis that you're doing, how do you think through all

So from an equity market perspective, the biggest issue is going to be earnings growth and margins, and to the extent that any of those things are impacting that in a negative way, that pulls some of the positive expectations that people have going into earnings for this year, it

And you talk about the elevated aspect are the levels of these markets. It really puts a lot of pressure, I guess on earnings, and I think the earnings outlook for twenty twenty five is, you know, pretty aggressive. I would argue, Man, I'm hearing twelve thirteen percent type of earnings growth.

Is that a material risk? Do you think to this market or do you feel comfortable with those kinds of orders.

So I would have argued that the expectations for this year were somewhat aggressive last year, and yet we.

Managed to get through that fairly well.

And I think this is where having those big themes like both AI and now quantum computing help you, because.

The AI came through this year.

If you hadn't seen that come through in earnings, and you hadn't seen the growth, and you hadn't seen non tech companies start picking up AI and using it, that says, okay, we've got more spending in that area.

So if you've got a driver like that, it's very helpful.

Whether or not that is taken apart by some of the other things we were just talking about remains to be seen.

But the thematic goal is there.

Does that continue?

I mean, we have focused so much on AI and its prospects, not just this last year, but the year before that as well, and what it might do, how it could be implemented by companies. You say some have been using it so far. Where do you see that story going as we enter into the new year. Is that still the overarching narrative when we look a kind of thematic stories for the market, or is it tapering off a little bit or is it changing? How do you see it progressing here in the new year.

I think it's changing in terms of where that spend is coming from. Right, So the semiconductor industry, which was driving a lot of that because the spend was coming from chips, has had a rougher time in the second half of the year, but the software industries have started to do better. So the implementation now and how companies can use it is becoming as important as building the

I'm sitting on my tiear treasury four point three five percent. I don't feel like I need to be a hero and take credit risk.

What do you think?

I think the fact that you've got spreads compressed so much, I don't necessarily think you want to take a bunch of credit risk here either. And I think that the discussion now about what's going to happen with the FED and how and how much rates are going to come down again this year is now up in the air

That's been shifting around, But yeah, looking at.

That on a two year there's that's a reasonable outcome at the moment, given that we don't know where fixed thing come is going to go.

Sarah, unlike Tom Keen who owns the mag seven, I missed that trade.

Do I chase that trade here? In twenty twenty five.

Or do I try to find some value, whether it's financials or consumer or energy.

How are you talking to your clients about twenty twenty five?

So I would say that that's one of those questions, the answer to which is yes, which is yes, I have to have some tech. Yes, I'm going to look for some value in other places. It's difficult with the tax docs specifically, because every time you say, oh, they

Right?

So I think that if you are tempered in that and you say, okay, I need to start with some you can start positions. If you're going from zero, right, you start positions and you sort of see how things go and you give it a couple of months. But I think you have to look at both sides of the equation, because I don't think that tech is going to be one of those areas that people are willing to rotate out of anytime that we can see in the near future.

We talked a bit about this at the top. That is the way that markets reacted to the election, the enthusiasm exuberance we saw there at the beginning, and how that's sort of becoming tempered, I think was the word that you used. Has that process finished its course or are people still sort of trying to understand where the prospects are going to be higher than otherwise going forward here?

Well, I think that the hard thing you have is that November was such a strong month, and I think that people are always looking for things to be a little bit less expensive, and all it did was get more expensive. And December has come down a bit in certain areas, but it hasn't really come.

Down a whole lot. And I don't I'm not saying that because I want it to.

I'm just saying that because that's where we are, and I think going into next year, it's going to depend on a lot of different things that, like I said, we still don't know yet. But I think that the enthusiasm for equities is still there, and especially enthusiasm for US equities versus other parts of the world.

Yeah, that's one of the things I've heard just in the last several months. International money increasingly coming to the US market, and that is maybe one of the drivers of twenty twenty four performance in the US markets.

Are you seeing that?

Is that a thing?

I mean, is people just putting more and more of their allocation global allocation into the US.

Well, I think that there's I mean, there's an expanded pool of money to be invested right because there's still a lot of money scrolling around in the system.

I think that the.

Concerns what's going on in Europe and the concerns of how that plays out over the next year so does make the US look more attractive. And I think that's been the case for quite some time, but we keep getting these enthusiasms and it's going to be better for markets outside. The stronger dollar makes emerging markets a little bit more challenging here, and.

I think that.

But there's just some structural issues that are going on in Europe that are very difficult to fix, and with what's going on in China, the automobile industry is under.

A lot of pressure. That's a big driver for parts of Europe.

So I think that there are some reasons that are not wrong for people to be concerned about other markets outside of the US.

I promise we'd come back to the FED, and I'm eager to get your sense of sort of where things are headed. I'm curious if you were one of the many you had your head in your hands as that press conference happened.

With j Aublet a couple of days ago.

What did you take away from what he had to say? What was in that statement, was in that plot about the path forward here? And maybe you can dovetail that with kind of your outlook for the US economy in the your head.

Well, Interestingly, I don't think it was a shock that they took the number of cuts down into this year. I think what surprised people the most, including ourselves, was that they took up the inflation forecasts while they were cutting rates, which is not necessarily something that you would expect. But I think that you had such I mean, I say that the market's been wrong about what they've got baked in.

But no one likes a very quick surprise.

So the fact that the December cut was sort of really very much expected. I think that potentially market reaction could have been worse if they had not cut in December and said everything that they did. But they were hawkish enough that the market reacted pretty negatively. So, yes, my head was in my hands because no one likes to see the market do that on any day.

So how much of our twenty twenty five outlook is predicated upon the fediing versus earnings, like kind of the basics of the fundamentals here?

How much?

So?

I think that there's a lot of noise right now about the politics, but I think ultimately it's going to come down to earnings and it's going to come down.

To the economy.

So where do how do those two things play out? I think that there was a huge concern when rates went up so fast that higher rates were going to be super detrimental. It hasn't been as bad as people thought it was.

Going to be.

Those lags long and variable lags are still lagging, and so now do we need to cut as much as people were baking in? I don't know what the answer is. I think that there was a period of time posted those financial global financial crisis with unusual monetary policy. I don't think we're going back there. So people are going to have to learn to live with some kind of rates.

You've came in here and Paul and I were grousing about the housing market, and you talk about the reaction to rates. We've been monitoring, of course what's been happening with savings and credit card use as well. When you look at that, just sort of generalate the health of the consumer. What's your takeaway? How does that shape what you may or may not be interested in here in the end of your head.

Well, I think that that's a big part.

Of why the economy is still doing so well, because without that you would see a much slower economy. And I think that that's where that tension between the FED and wanting to cut rates but looking out at some of the things that they're concerned about is also a problem. I think that we got some good numbers on inflation post that FED meeting, and that helped a lot, because without that fall in the PCE, I think that markets would have started to be continually concerned that no more

What's kind of your theme for twenty twenty five and you talk to your clients these days, is there a theme?

Is it just stay the stay steady here, stay in the market.

I think that after two years of strong gains, what we are telling people and what we talk about internally is we don't think that there's some giant tragedy on the horizon, but the volatility should be a bit higher, given the fact that we have had less so in the last year or so, and because we're coming from a definite cycle where we're going to be cutting to maybe a cycle where we're slowing those cuts and or we might move into a more neutral phase that could

Four one, dude, it's not like sweet as advice exactly. In the minute we have left here, what do you say to your more conservative clients who maybe have a lot of cash still aren't in the market. What's the what's the case you're making to them to get into this market and to allay some of the nervousness that they might have.

Well, I think that to some of the For the more conservative people, you're also looking at some more fixed incoming because rates haven't dropped as much. That gives you some room to be more balanced. So we're looking for folks like that to look at balanced accounts because you don't want to not participate in the equity markets. But at the same time, if we're a little bit worried about volatility, then you probably want to temper that a bit with some bonds.

And I think you can do that here.

And I think that was a big question where to bond sit in your portfolio given what's going on, And I think that that's a place where people are finding a little bit more comfort from a stability standpoint. But I still think that the equity markets are not a bad place to be ultimately Yeah, I agree.

Sarah Hunt, thank you so much for joining us. Really appreciate you coming into our studio today.

Good to see a real person here at the studio.

She did some double duty on Bloomberg Television and now radio. We appreciate it, Sarah Hunt. She's a partner and a chief market strategist at Alpine Saxon Woodsone.

You're listening to the Bloomberg Surveillance podcast. Catch us Live weekday afternoons from seven to ten am. Easter Listen on Apple car Play and Android Otto with a Bloomberg business app, or want just live on YouTube.

Talk about that discussion of all things coming out of Washington, DC. We head up to Providence, Rhode Island. Wendy Schiller, professor at Brown University.

Joins us.

Wendy, I guess there's a million ways we can go here, but I just want to start about I'm wondering how this When we initially had the election, the news flow is really about the nominations for cabinet positions for President elect Trump. And now I'm kind of wondering, as these things have kind of stewed for several weeks, we're going to be getting towards confirmation hearings later on in January.

Is there a feel how.

These things are going to go because there are some nominations for cabinet positions that are a little bit more more controversial than others.

Well, I'm more in bog Miran David.

I think that in general, I don't think we know from history that presidential nominations for cabinet positions generally go through. There are a couple of really well known examps bulls where they went down, so John Tower many years ago. Bill Clinton had a very difficult time getting Attorney General nominee through through some vetting mistakes I think early on. But in general you don't lose too many of them

I think those are the two that I'm watching.

I'm not sure Trump gets both of them, and if you had to put money down, I think Hegseth seems to be getting enough votes to get fifty one get through the Senate. I'm not sure about Gabbard, but some of the other ones are quite standard sort of what you'd expect from a Republican president, and I don't think they're going to have any problems. And Trump wants these people in place as soon as possible. He's already dictating

Were I a senior demo crowd on, say, the Senate Foreign Affairs Committee or the Armed Services Committee? Were I Elizabeth Warren on the Financial Services Committee? I've got Scott Bestont coming before me. What is the job of a senior Democratic senator in these hearings? Recognizing the fact that, as you point out, most of these nominees are going

Well, David, I think the messaging coming out of the twenty four elections whe the Democratic Party is losing or has lost a portion of working class Americans or middle class Americans.

So the messaging should.

Be continuous across all of these committees is what will you do to protect the average American, the consumer, the employee, and also for personal security and safety in a humane way. And I think that's the thing where Democrats had the upper hand, and now they don't seem to have that

Wendy, what do you expect from the first one hundred days of the Trump administration.

Well, we've talked about whether, you know, we should think about these and twenty days, fifty.

Days, one hundred days.

You know, it's interesting to have a president who was president lost and come back.

We haven't seen that in more than one hundred years.

And so the question is what will be a continuation, what will be the sort of Trump personal vengeance actions, and what will be new in Trump too?

And I think that's the thing that's a little bit uncertain.

He seems to want to do what other presidents like to do bypass Congress, even if you have.

A trifecta, even if you control Congress.

We saw from last week's budget negotiations that it doesn't mean you're going to get what you want. So I think the Trump inistration will focus on doing as much as they can through executive power and not relying on Congress. With the exception, of course, of the Trump tax cuts, which I think Trump would rather see passed sooner rather than later. There's a disagree between the House and the Senate Republican leadership on how fast that can go.

We saw all the dysfunctions surrounding the Continuing Resolution. Then earlier this week we got That report from the House Ethics Committee on Matt Gates, the person that President elect Trump had put forward to be the Attorney general first through the nomination, a pretty damning report by all accounts, and I think one that in past administration's past eras would have created a lot of story. Again, Matt Gates no longer in the Congress, How did you read that report?

Well, I mean, you know, Matt Gates wasn't the most popular member of Congress enough fair enough here, So when you try to interpret what happened here, it's hard to make generalizations. But I think in general, those two actions coupled together, says the House Republican Party, there's a line you can't cross. In other words, they're going to stand

They just loose power, They lost a lot of seats.

They understand that Trump has you know, some really good cotails, but some very dangerous coattails for them looking ahead. So they want to assert their power and stay you know, on their platform.

And that's what the budget deal was.

It was saying, we're not going to just give you the debt ceiling for two more years. We actually promised we'd cut the budget. So I think that's the signaling that the Trump administration should be taking. And we're seeing that Trump is starting to talk more unilaterally because he sees that this road will not be so smooth for him, even in a Republican House with you know, some very very small margins, and with Gates. I think a lot of people are looking to open the door, you know,

Make that happen.

Elon musk En doge, is that really going to be a thing going forward?

Do you believe?

Well, Cabinet departments have to be created by Congress. You know, under George W. Bush created the Department of Homeland Security, and response to a lot of the failings that led to nine to eleven, So you know, there's a reason to create a cabinet department in Congress? Does that without that infrastructure, It's just unclear to me how they implement what they're talking about, you know. And if you want to fire a civil servant with legal protections, that's going

I think that's going to really have a lot.

Of impact on what kind of influence they can have and reducing the size and scope of the federal government.

All right, Wendy, thank you so much. We appreciate that.

Wendy Schiller, she's a professor at Brown University.

This is the Bloomberg Surveillance Podcast. Listen live each weekday starting at seven am. Eastern on applecar Play and Android Auto with the Bloomberg Business app. You can also listen live on Amazon Alexa from our flagship New York station just say Alexa playing Bloomberg.

I am proud to say I don't think I went to a store. This is that right. I did a couple of clicks, you know, buying stuff.

But a couple of days ago, I drove past the Short Hills Mall in New Jersey.

Line of cars you couldn't even get into the parking.

Still a mecca for consumerism.

Still, So, if I had to say, I would think retail sales would be pretty solid during this holiday season.

I don't know. Let's check in with Nicole Larson. She does this stuff for a living.

She's a national research manager retail services as a Colliers Nicole. Again, I kind of take it as a badge of honor that I did not go to a store this holiday season, but I know a lot of people did.

How are retail sales looking for the holiday season?

Well, I will say you are probably one of the few that did not get a store. I don't know how you managed to do that, but honestly, I was very impressed. We were pretty conservative with our holiday spend forecast. What we saw and this was as of Tuesday, Visa's spend monitors said that holidays sales are a four point eight percent and that doesn't include Christmas Eve sales. So I'm actually really interested to see the final number come

So, like I said, I don't know how you managed to do it.

But we also did see a pretty big increase during the Thanksgiving.

Shopping weekend as well for mobile shopping.

So it said about sixty three percent of shoppers use their phone to shop during the Thanksgiving weekend, and that was up from fifty five percent last year.

You're going right where I want to go, which is I see this blurring now between Black Friday and Cyber Monday, and I was getting inundated with these push alerts to buy all kinds of stuff on my mobile phone. I mean that started before Thanksgiving, certainly continued into Friday, and there were you know, more entreaties on Monday as well. We had these kind of discrete days. Friday was for going to stores. Maybe that's not the case as much

Yeah, I mean, and you have to remember too, this Thanksgiving fell a lot later than it usually does, so I think retailers are really trying to push. I mean, we saw so many sales that were already happening in September and October, so the spend, the holiday spend was really spread out for a longer period, I would say this year. Yes, I know a lot of people were not a fan of all the crazy texts and emails that we were receiving. I still am receiving them even today.

But it's really interesting.

I think, you know, retailers are really trying to push, really trying to stress consumers to make sure that they get their purchases in because I don't think a lot of people realize until Thanksgiving came that we had such a short holiday window.

Nicole talk to us about kind of the relationship between bricks and mortar and e commerce. What's the It seems like, you know, during the pandemic, it seems like we brought forward by maybe three, four or five years the amount of e commerce shift. Where are we today with bricks and order versus e commerce?

Yeah, so obviously in twenty twenty we saw huge you know, we really saw the peak of the online sales as a share of total retail sales. We're actually at that same point right now. We're about at sixteen point two percent is what I think the total share of e commerce sales is right now for the US. I only see that continuing to grow. But in store is still super vital to consumers. I mean, we're even talking about this now with returns. I'll give you guys a new

You've mentioned returns a couple of times. I've got a pair of shoes, we got for my daughter. They're too small for I got to take care of that today or tomorrow. I'm going to go to the store to do that. It's it's help us understand how the process of returning has changed.

Here.

You mentioned folks going back to stores to do it. I was at Whole Foods a few days ago and I had to return something from Zappo's and I walked upstairs and it was like a shipping center in its own right where the cafe used to be in that store. But talk a bit just about how that's changed, that process of returning has changed, and the way that companies, the way that the stores are trying to make that go a little more seamlessly.

I mean, yeah, retailers lost one hundred billion dollars last year in return fraud, so I think retailers are starting to restrategize their return policies. I would not be surprised if a lot of consumers are maybe a little bit upset by some of the retailer return policies that they'll be seeing this holiday season. I think it's really important. Hopefully, when the consumers were buying their their Christmas gifts, they were aware of the return policy but I think the

So the percentage is very small.

But I do think retailers already starting to you know, sort of look out for that in their internal systems and make sure that nobody's abusing the system.

In New York City, talk to us about neighborhood retail. Where are we today versus pre pandemic.

Oh yeah, I mean the local retail has really rebounded to pre COVID levels, and we've even seen some retail rents surpassing twenty nineteen. One area that I found really interesting was Flat Iron is actually you know, commanding about three hundred to five hundred per square foot. So I thought that was absolutely amazing and it just really shows like the resurgence of the area.

Paul just a moment ago mentioning that that giant mall in Millburn, New Jersey. How well are malls doing and what is the as we look ahead here to twenty twenty five and beyond. What does the future of the American shopping mall look like today?

I mean, you know, honestly, whether it's mall or even if it's you know, neighborhood shopping center, lifestyle centers, what I'm really noticing is that consumers want to be wowed at every sense of their shopping journey. So whether that's even going to a fast food joint, whether that's even going to a grocery store. Now, consumers are really looking for, you know, that next Instagrammable moment, or they want to see some cool technology, or they want to be really

What is return fraud? Is that a big number.

It was the one hundred billion that I mentioned and that was just for twenty twenty three, So yeah, I mean.

It is large.

Like I said, it is a really small percentage of a group of people that are doing it, but unfortunately this is pushing some of the costs back to consumers.

We've talked a lot over the course of the last year about where people are spending their moneys, if it's on experiences or goods themselves. Have we noticed any kind of shift and that have you noticed any kind of shift away from experiences back to traditional goods, be they luxury goods or just you know, other kinds of goods people are buying.

We definitely saw during this holiday season that experiential was top of mind for consumers, whether that was you know, going to concerts or plays, even if it was going out to eat.

We actually were expecting foot traffic to boost about six percent during the holiday season.

So again still kind of waiting for those final numbers to come out, but I just find that really interesting that, you know, people just want.

To gather again, people want to get together.

They're not so focused on revenge spend anymore like we were just a few years ago. So I find that really exciting, and again I think we're going to see that going into the new year. Also, another category we saw that did really well during the holidays was appliances and electronics.

And that goes again with.

The trend that people are buying now to prepare for later, especially with the unknown with these expected tariffs to come. Maybe within the next few weeks, maybe within the next few months.

So we'll see how that goes.

But consumers definitely did stock up on those items during the holiday season under.

Spending, Yes, exactly exactly.

Nicole LARTs and National Research Manager Retail Services for Colliers.

This is the Bloomberg Surveillance Podcast. Listen live each weekday starting at seven am Eastern on applecar Play and Android Auto with the Bloomberg Business app. You can also watch us live every weekday on YouTube and always on the Bloomberg terminal.

All right, what are we doing in these markets here? Don't stocks, bonds, commodities, alternatives, no idea?

Tally leisure? He might have an idea.

He's a chief market strategist for the Wealth consulting group, Tally.

What are you telling your clients here? As you think about twenty twenty five? What are you telling your clients?

So look, I think, Paul, in the very near term, the US is still looking like the best house in a bad neighborhood, you know, just looking at what's going on in the rest of the world. Given the political and economic problems in Europe as well as some challenges in Russia in Syria, I think we could benefit, talking about US dollar denominated assets from some flight to safety and quality flows in the near term, which should help keep US buoyant.

You rattled off a couple of those geopolitical risks. What are you most worried about or what are you paying the closest attention to. Obviously there has been this promise from the incoming president that on day one, maybe day two, we'll see a lot it takes, you know, it can resolve these wars that are taking place in the Middle East and in Ukraine. What are you sort of watching most closely as you think about what the market impact might be into the new year.

So, I mean, I'm not really a geopolitical strategist, but as we know as practitioners, these events can create bouts of near term volatility that I'm personally trained to look past. So look, this year twenty twenty four has been devoid

Tally, how do you think about evaluation here?

I mean, we've had just big, big moves higher in the markets, We've had some good earnings growth, and I'm not sure the ernest growth has been commensurate with the moves in the stocks, which I know for a lot of folks that raises some valuation concerns.

How do you deal with that with your clients?

Well, I think, Paul, the point is well taken, and valuations, especially in the larger growthier techy areas of the market, have been expanding for good reasons. So I think there's a couple of ways to answer that. We're at a stage in the market cycle where earnings are picking up here, so I think we can grow into some of those loftier valuations. But you really don't have to look very far just beyond the biggest, most magnificent companies of the

Let's talk a bit about sort of where AI is headed. Of course, this has been big story in twenty twenty four, as it wasn't in twenty twenty three. You bring up

Yeah, well, I think some listeners might be surprised to know that Semiconductors as a group actually witnessed a bear market decline from July into August. I think they fell something like twenty three percent just looking at the socks for example, And we're still in corrective territory there, even though we've balanced somewhat. But I think conceptually technology including this AI theme or may yeah, that's what it's kind of building up to. Be I think itself could help

So I mean, let's assume that you know, we're not all like Tom Keen and we've been long the Magnificent seven and we're just clipping coupons here. If we haven't been there, where do we go now for value here? If it's wethink about twenty twenty five, are there some sectors that screen well for you guys?

Yeah, So again I might sound like a bit of a broken clock here, but I still like the domestic cyclicals like financials and consumer discretionary, So those would be the third and fourth best performing sectors. Again, might be a bit of a surprise to some listeners year today, So I'm sticking with those views. But my biggest surprise looking ahead to twenty twenty five is probably the most contrariant. It's the sector that performed the worst, and that would

Talk a bit more about that. I'm intrigued by what you're saying that what do you see in that sector that other investors, other market participants maybe haven't seen over the last year.

So if there's one thing that I do know, it's whatever the market themes and narratives are at present, they're probably going to look very different one year. Hence, so again I like the setup as a contrarian. It's the worst performing sector. But again another nice surprise heading into twenty twenty five here Lo and Behold, we've got a

Hey, Tylly, let's switch gears. Talk a little bit about the fixed income space here to your treasury. I mean, I could just park myself into two your treasury four point three five percent, clip that coupon.

I'll sleep well at night. Do I do that or do I take some credit risk?

So I think it is probably an environment where you are clipping coupons here, Paul, the credit spreads, I'm not seeing any signs of turbulence there. That's another reason why I think that the cycle can continue for the equity market. But the valuations there are looking a little bit stretched. We were talking about that across the cap spectrum earlier.

Tally. Are you based in Vegas, No, that's.

Where HQ is. I live here in Central New Jersey.

Keyboard to see Jersey. That's where it's all comes back to keyboard.

I mean, I'm sinking that I see my notes here says it's Vegas, but he's in keyboard.

I mean earl of the base.

I will be on.

Fox you when it comes to I would be going to.

Cast keyboard on my train down to the Jersey shore. Here today, Tally Leisure, chief market strategist, the Wealth Consulting Group, joining us here from the Swamp Happy Leader.

We appreciate that.

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