Senate Votes to Advance Kavanaugh for Final Vote

charges against Kavanaugh. Speaking with reporters yesterday, Senate Judiciary Committee Chairman Chuck Grassley remained confident in Kavanaugh's confirmation. I feel very good about where this nomination is right now. Now. I don't say that from the standpoint of counting votes. I say that from the standpoint of the qualifications of

this candidate. With us here now in the Bloomberg nine studio is Greg Store, Bloomberg News is Crack Supreme Court reporter, and we're going to talk about what just happened a moment ago on the Senate floor. Maybe you can explain to our listeners, you know it was. It's called the procedural vote, a key vote, a test vote, a culture vote. But what really just happened there, Well, technically, what that does is it means that they can go ahead with

the final vote. Uh. The senators cast votes that may or may not give indications of what they're gonna do on the final vote. It means that we will know, uh tomorrow whether Brett Kavanaugh is a Supreme Court justice, but we don't know for sure how that vote is going to come out. And I was struck to see just how some of these key centrist Republicans did. Senator Jeff Flake, the retiring senator from Arizona, was a yes

on cloture. Senator Susan Collins, another key centrist Republican from Maine, also a yes, Lisa Murkowski of Alaska voting no. And then, of course the big shocker. There were literally gasps on the floor reportedly of the Senate when Senator Joe mentioned a centrist Democrat from West Virginia, in a state greg that candidate Donald Trump carried by forty two percentage points, voted yes. He voted with Republicans to advance this, but as you mentioned, he very well could vote yes on

culture and no for final passage. Right, That's exactly right, and One possibility is that Senator Mansion could wait to see which way the wind is blowing and in particular, which way Susan Collins votes. So Lisa Murkowski, I should say, just told reporters, big scrum of them, just said quote. In my view, he's not the best man for the court at this time. So she has indicated she is going to vote no on final confirmation. What that means is it's down to three senators we don't know about

for sure, Flake, Collins, Uh and Mansion. If Flake votes yes, then it's up to Susan Collins and Joe Mansion may may follow her one way or the other. NBC News is reporting the Flake is telling them that he plans to vote yes on final confirmation. So if that story holds up, we will will really just be down to

Collins and Mansion. I think this is one of the more bizarre rituals of Washington, where you have a a what seems like a vote of the United States Senate that Wine and Brett Havana's favor, and yet still we don't actually know the final outcome. So explain why people vote yes on cloture and can still vote no on the final Well, there there is a notion that some

Senators still carry that a nominee deserves a vote. So one could imagine Susan Collins, for example, taking the position that I believe he deserves a vote, and I'm going to vote no. We don't know that's how how she's going to come out, but that's at least um a possibility for how it will happen. And of course this all happens against the backdrop of up until the nomination of Neil gorcich Uh, there was the ability to filibuster a Supreme Court nominee, meaning you had to have sixty

votes to get to the next stage. You know what I find fascinating is just really how much of a local issue this has become for each of these senators. Senator Susan Collins is not up for reelection until twenty but she faces potentially a challenger from the right. Up there, Governor Lapage, who's a staunch ally of the presidents and has been for quite some time. The President's son Don Junior, campaigning at a main Republican fundraiser over the weekend with

Governor Lapage. Then you look at someone like Senator Mansion, where those polls have tightened increasingly, and he of course, being a centrist Democrat, this is fascinating. More nationally speaking, in particular, the NPRPBS News Hour poll that came out earlier this week found the enthusiasm gap evaporate in terms of Democrats and Republicans. Talk to me, Greg about just how much how unique this vote has become for this cultural moment in the US that we're just you know,

over a day away from finding out what will happen. Yeah, Kevin, as you said, Uh, this is a highly unusual, if not really the first time in history that we've had a vote so big on a Supreme Court nominee right before an election. So uh, those uh, those those views that you just talked about are going to matter when people go out to vote for for against Joe Mansion. Uh, in just a few weeks. With Susan Collins, it's a little bit of a different calculation. Uh, you know, two

years is a long time. Uh, this issue will fade from the headlines. People may have moved on to other things. But she has to weigh the risk that people are going to remember how she voted here and it could come back to bite her. So Greg we have one of the we have one of the best Supreme Court reporters in Washington, d C. I'll brag about you for you. And to be a crime to only talk about politics.

Let's talk about the court itself. Um, people talk about Brett Kavanaugh cementing a conservative majority on this court for a generation. He's he's only in his fifties. He could serve on their twenty thirty years easily taught. Let's put let's put ourselves on a time machine and pretend that he has just been confirmed to the United States Supreme Court. What is your story about that? Say? What does this

historical moment for the court mean going forward? Well? Uh, as he said, this is a turning point for the court. We're gonna end up with most likely the most conservative court we've had in eighty years since since the New Deal, the Court is unquestionably going to move to the right on big issues like abortion, affirmative action, federal regulation, the power of the president, and really the key factor is going to be how quickly Chief Justice John Roberts is

gonna want to go. He's a very conservative guy, conservative justice who has consistently voted conservative, with one big exception that being, uh, the Obamacare fight. But he's also somebody who cares a lot about the Court's institutional standing. He

doesn't want the Court perceived as as a political entity. Uh. That that is going to shift with the political winds and shift based on the membership of the Court, which might mean that uh he puts off the day where the Court reconsiders Roe v. Wade, for example, and overturns some other key precedents. But the Court is certainly going to move to the right the I mean, I think the other question a lot of people have is about tempera minutes a word you're hearing a lot these days.

We all saw Bret Cavanaugh's testimony um last week emotional, and I think would be a fair word to describe it with just a few seconds that we have left here talk about how the how he might fit in to the current Supreme Court in that way, it will be a challenge for both him and the other justices. Uh. They know they have to work with each other. They probably all have very strong feelings, but they're gonna be

there together for a long time. Thank you very much, Greg, We really appreciate your your views on such a busy day. We'rely from the Blueberg Interactive Broker studio, and last night, President Trump addressed a crowd of supporters in Rochester, Minnesota, hitting aggressively the campaign trail ahead of the midterm elections, and he discussed the upcoming confirmation vote for Supreme Court

nominee Brett Cavanaugh, who just advanced out of culture. That vote anticipated tomorrow, and in his comments, President Trump continued to target Democrats. Take listen, they want to obstruct, they want to delay, demoral, they want to destroy. That's what happens. That's what happened. And just take a look at what's going on. Democrats have been trying to destroy Judge Brett cabinet. So there you have the President Trump taking this issue

to the campaign trail. Mike Dorning, Bloomberg News White House Deputy team Leader joins us now and Mike, when you look at the comments coming from President Trump about this particular issue, he's really trying to rally the base around this. Now, yeah, absolutely, And that's always a problem for the president's party going into mid term elections, is how motivated is the base

once the president's in the White House. And here you have a controversy that hits at a key issue for conservative social Republicans who are the sort of the most enthusiastic parts of the base, the Supreme Court nomination. And he's using this and the polarization around this fight to try to rev up his base to get it closer to where the Democrats are. But I thought that, right, the conventional wisdom was that a lot of women voters in particular, would be very upset about the way of

our Kavanaugh. You know the testimony from the Professor Ford, the Kavanaugh's rebuttal, you seem to be saying that Republicans are starting to get a little bit of a bump in their base. Explain that now there there's some signs that they are getting a bump. The way the White House views it is the Democratic base was already really rebbed up, and women were already really revved up about

Trump to go out and vote against him. Now what they're hoping to do is to bring up the enthusiasm of their base so it's closer to where the Democratic base is, and that, in theory, should even things out. The downside risk is that this will the downside risk for the Republican point of view is that this will also rev up women. But their bet is that women and Democrats are already so repped up that you're not

and to rev them up that much more. And should Judge Kavanall ultimately get confirmed, and now we're playing the should have his game, But should he get confirmed, would that enthusiasm bump that we've seen from Republicans last because thirty days in two thousand and eighteen, and President Trump's political arena is an eternity. Right, My bed is it would ebb some personally. But you do have some things that would help that, which is, you're delivering two tangible

things close to the election. On the one hand, you are delivering a fifth conservative Supreme Court vote, which shows tangible results for social conservatives. And the other thing is

then NAFTA two point oh. Even though a lot of people who look at this closely may sort of scoff and say it's not that big a change from NAFTA, it is nonetheless a trade deal that does change things, that does renegotiate NAFTA, and it's done and it's delivered, and that is something that is of importance to rust belt voters and particularly some of the dairy voters in Minnesota. So one of the oldest cliches in politics is turnout

is you know, really what matters? That really is doubly true in a mid term election, and that's why we're spending so much time talking about it right now, and in the larger political conversation explained again why why has turned out so important at this juncture? Well, the most at its simplest is a vote doesn't count if you don't cast it. But for mid terms, why that matters so much is that the turnout is relatively low, especially compared to a presidential election year, so you have a

lot more to gain by revving up turnout. And that's something that you've seen basically every UM, every president since two thousand in their mid term elections, they and the opposition party. It's really been turning out the base that matters in the mid terms UM this whole century UM, rather than going after independent, suaitable voters. And I think Craig makes a great point, especially when we talk about turnout and just how much is writing on this Supreme

Court pick. And just under three hours, Senator Susan Collins, the centrist Republican remain is set to deliver a speech where she's going to make known Mike what her position is, how she's going to vote on Judge Kavanaugh. Senator Jeff Blake, according to NBC, is reportedly going to be a guest. This all comes down to Senator Susan Collins, and we're going to find that out at three o'clock. What's going through her mind right now, what political calculations is she making,

and what pressure is she facing from the White House. Well, I won't um, I won't pretend to know whether she's debating this from a holy um disinterested view or political view. But her political pressures are that she has to win re election in a primary in Maine eventually, and this is something that if she goes against the Conservatives on this,

it will really tick off potential primary voters. Now, on the other hand, she has made a very big thing of being having an independent streak, of being sensitive to women's issues, of being sensitive particularly on row versus weight, and this is an issue that both deals with abortion

rights and women's place in the world. Now, on top of that, the general buzz is that the Bush family has been lobbying her very heavily on behalf of Kavanaugh, and she is not particularly close to President Trump, but she does have a good relationship with the Bush family. In fact, their summer homes in Maine, and so she's getting a lot of personal lobbying from that front as well. So we know that the President is about to hit the road again, it feels a little bit like he

himself is on the ballot. Uh, tell us about you know what, what is the White House thinking on sending Trump himself out there? We've got about thirty seconds there. Thinking is again, the Democrats are as rebbed as they get. Um, he's got to rip up his people. There's nothing to lose by sending him out there and revving him up. That's not necessarily what everyday Republicans do. We're li from the Bloomberg Interactive Broker Studio and we're carefully monitoring what's

going on on Capitol Hill. It's all about Judge Brett Kavanall Georgetown prep Alum, those allegations of sexual misconduct. He cleared the cloture vote, and at three pm today we're anticipating remarks from Senator Susan Collins, the centrist Republican from Maine. She's gonna say how she's going to vote Senator Jeff Flake. Reportedly, another key Republican, says that he's going to vote for Judge Kavan also all eyes at three on the centrist

Republican from Maine. But this is our nasty and uh Senate Majority Leader Mitch McConnell saying yesterday just how nasty it's become and saying he could do nothing to satisfy the Democrats. Take listen to what he said. There's no way anything we did would satisfy the Democrats. They've always got a reason why the goalposts need to be moved. And joining us now on the line to talk about

precisely what's going to happen with Democrats. As professor at Georgia State University Law School, Neil Kincop, Neil, thank you so much for being here, my pleasure, and I want to ask you because you are actually the former counselor to then Senator Joe Biden for the impeachment trial of

President Clinton. I've got I was on in the Senate earlier today, Neil, following all of the cloture vote, and I was struck to see how Senator Joe Mansion, the centrist Democrat from West Virginia actually voted with Republicans to move for cloture. Now he could ultimately decide he's going to vote against Judge kavan all tomorrow when this vote

is expected. But what do you think the calculus is, Neil for someone like centrist Democrat Joe Mansion, Well, the obvious calculus for him, first of all is he's got to keep his seat right, and so he's got to worry on the one hand, if he votes against Kavanaugh, right, he's from a very red state, that could harm his re election chances. On the other hand, I think even in these very red states, Um, there's a real concern about angering your own base and people not coming out

to vote for you. So you see, for example, in red Indiana, Senator Donnelly decided to oppose Judge Kavanaugh. I think it was a long and difficult consideration for him. Um, it was for Senator hide Camp, who came out last night saying she was going to oppose Kavanaugh. Um. It's it's a really difficult calculation for anyone to make. Mansions going absolutely down to the wire, um, And I think maybe he's hoping Senator Collins will take him off the hook.

If if Susan Collins ends up being a yes, and Manson's yes is not ultimately the deciding vote, it's sort of he's going along with the pack. And I think you can make an argument in the state where he's running a forty two point Trump win there that supporting Trump's pick for Supreme Court is is probably the way he has to go. I'm sort of curious, Professor in in your view as someone who sort of survived the impeachment wars, you know, unprecedented, Uh is a word we

throw around a lot in Washington. Obviously, people who remember the Clarence Thomas hearings, remember the partisan atmosphere there impeachment. You know. Again, I have of of us who lived through that, remember that, you know. Put this on the scale. It feels like we have gone to kind of a new place in Washington where you've had unbelievably partisan invective going back and forth, uh, you know, and again in a

very personal way. Obviously, Professor Ford's allegations of a sexual assault, Kavanaugh's very emotional denial kind of help help listeners understand where this fits in on the scale. Have we gone to sort of a new place in Washington? Of kind of scorched earth emotional politics. We certainly have. We certainly have. Sure there were echoes of the Thomas hearings in Judge Kavanaugh's um screaming fit at his hearing last week. But

really we have gone to a new level. Like you said, I lived through the impeachment of President Clinton, and that seems like a bipartisan age by comparison to where we are now. I can tell you going into that trial, Democratic senators, including Senator Biden, who I was working for, had an open mind about the possibility that they might have to vote to convict right. They did not go in sort of already decided that they were going to

support their president. They went in listened to the evidence with an open mind in a much more kind of bipartisan responsible way. And today it is just absolute tribal warfare. If you're for it, I'm against it. If you're against it, I'm for it. Um. And that that's that's a new thing.

And that was pretty interesting last week when we saw the drama unfold inside of the Dirkson Senate Office Building in the Senate Judiciary Committee room, when Senator Jeff Lake meeting with centrist Democrat from Delaware Senator Chris Coons talking about the one week extension to have this FBI investigation, which then got again tied in the middle of all of this, and Democrats saying they need more time, Republicans trying to push it along, and and and all the

back and forth, and your all boss, now, former Vice President Joe Biden, we should know in potential presidential candidates saying just within the last twenty four hours that he was invoking in the Anita Hill hearings and saying that he wished that he had done a better job in terms of uh controlling some of the questions that were asked for Anita Hill. I would argue that this is just as much a partisan issue as a generational one.

And I think here inside of the Beltway, it's been fascinating to watch all of their critiques, particularly the Georgetown prep angle. But talk to me in terms of what this means for the mid term elections, particularly as you said, Senator Joe Manchin's trying to protect his seat, Neil, But what does this mean in terms of the broader enthusiasm for Republicans and Democrats. So it'll be interesting to see

how it works. If Kavanaugh is confirmed, that certainly could diminish the enthusiasm that Republicans have that the base has to show up for the mid term. If Kavanaugh is defeated, then I think you have a fully energized base, right. And it is sort of harkens back to a different confirmation hearing, the Bork confirmation hearings, But the rejection of Robert Borke really energized the conservative base and committed them

to judicial politics in a way that continues to resonate today. Um. So I think that that that if Kavanaugh is defeated, that will certainly energize the Republicans. If Kavanaugh has confirmed, the seat's not there, it's not at stake anymore. And while I think Republicans are at the moment energized by this, by the time the mid term rolls around, you know, that's a whole month away, which in political terms, is an eternity. Um that that kind of enthusiasm might not

be there. Um. I'd like to throw in a question that we asked to our Supreme Court reporter earlier today in terms of so let's fast forward. Let's say Kavanaugh does make it onto the Supreme Court. What does that look like is he always he and Claire Simons are always gonna be at one end of voting on the conservative side. Can he rise above this? How does the

Court embrace its newest member if it is Kavanaugh? Well, I mean, I think it's going to make the court look really bad, right, And you know, it was interesting Lisa Murkowski and her comments today explaining why she's going to vote against him, was it was precisely for that that the Court needs to be above the kind of partisanship that Judge the avan On displayed. And I don't think there's any way for him on the Court to be seen as anything other than that. And it really

does tarnish the credibility of that institution. Well, we want to thank Neil Kincole, the professor at George Georgia State University Law School, for coming on. Thanks for listening to the Bloomberg Law Podcast. You can subscribe and listen to the show on Apple Podcasts, SoundCloud, and on Bloomberg dot com slash podcast. I'm June Brosso. This is Bloomberg m