Zelenskiy, Ohtani, and Hawaiian Airlines

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Welcome to the Bloomberg Markets Podcast. I'm Paul Sweeney alongside my co host Matt Miller.

Every business day we bring you interviews from CEOs, market pros, and Bloomberg experts, along with essential market movin news.

I'm the Bloomberg Markets podcast called Apple Podcasts or wherever you listen to podcasts, and at Bloomberg dot Com slash podcasts. All right, he's back, folks. He said he'd be back, and he's back. Brad Jacobs, Executive Chairman of XPO You know what in Lovin on the New York Sock Exchange XBO. He's got a new company, which he's been talking. I guess he kind of hinted at the last time he ses to tease. Thank you very much, Brad, Thanks so much for joining us. We really appreciate you coming back.

Now what building products distribution?

Building products distribution? Okay, so if you can.

Think about any house or a commercial facility, or a hospital or a school or a church, all the stuff that goes into making that building, so that could be the roof, the flooring, the windows, the tiles, the doors, the fire hydrant, the infrastructure, the.

Pipes, HVAC. All that stuff has to go through the supply chain and its huge, huge markets eight hundred billion dollars in size between here and Western Europe, and it's been growing about seven percent.

All right, So what what do you bring to it that that's new.

We'll bring a lot that's new. First of all, we're going to create a very large company and get all the advantages of scale and size that come with that. Second of all, we're going to apply technology We're going to apply technology, especially AI, for dynamic pricing, for managing the warehouses better, making them more automated, to do route optimization, for the delivery trucks, to do interactions with the customer. E commerce right now is mid single digits percent. It should be the majority.

And in building materials, Paul, all I want is a straight tube by five. I know that's can you make that happen. It's a big deal. It's a big deal where you source your materials because even though it's commoditized, I just find as the end user, it's not always the same product.

Well, I'm glad to hear that there's a problem to solve in this chain, and we will solve that.

Talk to us about kind of the I guess in the past, part of your strategy has been rolling up well, rolling up a fragment in industry. Is that in fact the case here? Talk to us about kind of the fragmentation and kind of how you plan to deal with that.

So there's about thirteen thousand distributors here in the United States, excuse me, seven thousand here the United States. It's about thirteen thousand in Europe. So there's twenty thousand distributors between here and Western Europe. So it's very, very very fragmented. The largest company would be Fergusing. It's about thirty billion dollars. Great company, done very good, very well. But I plan to make a company even bigger than that.

Boy, how do I invest in this on? I'm not going to miss this one.

Well, as Paulman, it's not your first rodeo. What is the experience that you picked up at the other companies with which you were involved and how does it apply to this.

Well, it's a similar business plan in the sense that it's going to be primarily based on consolidation acquisitions, So acquiring companies at a relatively good price, a price that's a lower multiple demo we're trading app and then improving those companies. So if you look at XPO Logistics, for example, we bought eighteen companies. They were doing roughly a billion dollars in EBITDA between all of them, and after a few years they were doing over two billion dollars VIVI do.

Do you become then a friend or enemy or a frindemy of a home depot or Lows home.

Depot and a lesser extent. Low's plays in a specific niche of this market, mostly the pro contractor, and they'll be one of many competitors twenty thousands of precise all.

Right, So I know we're talked to you the last time management teams. Assembling a management team is one of your primary responsibilities jobs, the most important thing, most important things. Talk to us about how you're going to kind of do that here.

So I wrote a book, as you know, yep, and it's called how to Make a few billion dollars. And the key thing if you read that book is the quality of the people. Make sure you have people who are really smart, really hard working, very good at what they do, collaborative, good team members, people are really sharp

For success in my opinion. And by the way, we named it QXO qx quality. Yep, we kept the X and O because we're going to use some of the same winning principles that made XPO and g XO and RXO successful.

How far behind is the buildings supply industry in terms of adapting and using technology.

As an as an industry as a whole, it's behind. Maybe it's in like the second inning. There are a handful of companies doing pretty well. So last week Builders First Source had an investor day. I read the transcript and sought on webcast. Heard it on the webcast. I like what they said about what they're doing in technology. But they're the exception.

They're the anomaly.

Most companies are not using technology in any big way. In the warehouses. Most of them are not using technology enough on the route optimization. Most of the building products distributors are not using technology enough for pricing decisions, for pricing optimization. And these are big, big variables that can enhance the customer experience dramatically and take out lots of unnecessary cost.

Well, does this mean you pass the costs on to the end users?

To the contrary, I hope we save money for the end user because we're going to take out waste, takeout inefficiency in the whole supply chain, and we'll share that. We'll share that with the customer. We'll have better margins, but we could share some of that improve margin with the customer.

What kind of revenues are you predicting at this point?

By the end of the first year, we should be on a revenue run rate of at least a billion dollars. At the end of the second year, we should be on a revenue run rate of at least five billion dollars. And over the next decade, we expect to get this into the tens of billions of dollars in revenue size.

So where are we with QXO now, you just press release comes out today. Where do you start? Where's your capital come from? How do you go from here? How do you build this company?

Well, it was on your show last week and we talked about how we're putting a billion dollars of equity into a very small cap company called silver Soun. That's right, and we're going to wait till that deal closed is in a few months, and then we're going to spin that company back to the original legacy shareholders. We're going to give them a little dividend two and a half million dollars. We're gonna give them a less than half

How do you typically fund your deals equity versus debt, given now that the debt is so much more expensive than it was over the last ten to fifteen years.

More equity than debt than in the past. In the past, I've been comfortable going up to two to four times of leverage. Here, I'm thinking more roughly half of that. And the reasons are two full One, as you said, interest rates are higher, although twenty years going to straight for right here, Yeah, just recently. It was in the

What's your title going to be, what's your role in all this? And are you giving up your business, your other businesses.

I'm certainly not going to give up my other businesses. I'm executive chairman of XPO and I planned to keep doing that, And I'm non executive chairman of RXO and of GXO, and I love all fear of those companies dearly, and I think I help them in the roles that I play there. In terms of what my title and position is going to be here, it's going to be the same time I've had since I've been twenty three. I'm going to be chairman and CEO, and I'm going

And what makes you target this industry specifically? You've got about thirty seconds or so left.

I looked at over five hundred opportunities and many many different industries, and this is the one that checked every single box of what I was looking for. Something that was large, something that was act position rich, something that was up my alley in terms of my skill set. Something with it was growth seven percent organic growth, and an industry and a customer set that is familiar to me. United Rentals is a big overlap with the construction customers.

For example, fascinating Brad thanks so much for joining us again. We appreciate you coming back and bringing us up to date on your new opportunity. Brad Jacobsy's executive chairman of XPO.

You're listening to the Team Ken's are Live program Bloomberg Markets weekdays at ten am Eastern on Bloomberg dot Com, the iHeartRadio app and the Bloomberg Business app, or listen on demand wherever you get your podcasts.

The Business of Sports, John, it's scarlettfou and a couple other slugs. I think Michael Barr and some guy who's an emerging markets guy. How he gets a Damien c does it all? He does it all. But they talk about the business of sports. I've got a lot of business of sports questions. I'm a golfer. I'm a fan of the game of golf, fan of the business of the golf. I don't understand what's going on with this live golf thing. I thought the PGA and the Live

Well, he's a reigning Master's champ, the number three player in the world, so he ads this legitimacy to going over to Live and he's the biggest signing by far yet And you're right. Live Golf and PGA Tour are

Every one of these sports stories as of late, the common denominator is money, and with it this specific case golfers signing with Live. Something in me tells me that this is some sort of Faustian bargain that these golfers are made. Am I being too cynical or fausia not realistic?

If the PGA Tour is in active negotiations with Live Golf to merge whatever obstacles they threw up there, and whatever concerns they cited has kind of gone by the wayside. They opened the door to golfers negotiating with Live Golf directly. We know that John Rahm had said in the past that he was not interested in the money. He said he and his wife were not concerned about the money, you know, that Live could offer them. He's always been very interested in history and legacy, and he said back

I mean, if the PGA is going to merge with Live, they're going to take a direct investment from the set Investment Fund. So you've already lost that The fundamental argument that the PGA had against Live is now, by the way, say, because you're in fact taking that money. So now if I'm John Rahm, I'm like, why do I wait?

Where the regulators and all this? What's there?

The DOJ is looking into this, and you know, again they have that December thirty first deadline with which to update the government. We do know that Jaymonahan and the PIF governor, yasir Al Ramayan Our scheduled to meet this week for negotiations, so maybe there'll be some reporting out of that.

Here's the independent of each other. Can they possibly Could the PGA possibly survive on its own against an entity like Live?

I don't know.

They don't have bottomless pockets like Live. Live is backed by the Saudi government.

But I'll tell you what the PGA has that Live doesn't have, which is a network television contract. I mean, if you want to watch Live, you got to go find it on the CW with's your a bunch of hotstruct stations around. They have no and so it is. I mean, I'm an avid golf fan. I will watch the round of some tournament in Poughkeepsie if it's the PGA Tour. I didn't haven't seen one shot of You could, but you just don't want to. It's a combination. I

Yeah.

Well, I mean they can always disrupt that at some point, and technology is moving the direction of people are not necessarily going to be signing up for the cable bundles and signing up for CW streaming will become more and more attractive over time.

Yep. All right, So what next for the Saudi government in its investments?

Maybe the Saudi government should look into Shoho Tani.

Yes, so now again, money money, It's all about a lot of money in this case, seven hundred million dollars.

Over ten years. This is the largest contract of any in any US professional sports league. It tops Aaron Judge his contract as a free agent nine year, three hundred and sixty million, Mike Trout who got an extension twelve year, or four hundred twenty six and a half million, even Patrick Mahomes ten year, four hundred and fifty million, Lionel Messi when he resigned with Barcelona. So this is a you know, ball Well no, I didn't want to use

It's amazing. I mean, I mean, did they what's the money behind the Dodgers, and I think about the Yankees. I think about the YES Network, and they make a ton of a.

Very lucrative sports TV CONTRACTIA contract. But I mean, this is also the second biggest media market in the nation, right after New York. And on top of that, unlike the Yankees, they've done very very well on the field. They won the World Series in twenty twenty. They haven't missed a season since twenty two.

Well, that's amazing. That's kind of like the Yankees of the nineties in their early two thousand day.

Is he worth it is?

Yeah, he's worth it.

Okay, give me some stats, so the comparation's with me.

But how about this.

He won the MVP twice. He is an incredible hitter and he's an incredible pitcher. If he just became one a hitter or one a pitcher, he would be an All Star in either, except that he could make.

People are saying, I mean he is as good or better than Babe Ruth. That's how far those are.

Those are the comparisons. And this summer when he was playing around the league, everywhere he went there were fans showing up and it was like showtime. You know, and they're just like tons of fans everywhere, and it was it was basically a tour to see, like how can we uh appeal to him and show him that like he should come play for the Mets, or he should come play for Detroit or whatever city you want to mention?

Is there any chance he'll start dating Taylor Swift exactly?

Kelsey is not giving up on his situation at all.

Ok, All right, what else he has for the business of sports? Coming out for the businesses? Now you have, I mean our listeners and our viewers on YouTube. Scarlet's watching wearing a New York Rangers jacket. So is that the team number one for you?

Team number one?

You got to Cornell? So does that mean you're you're just a die hard hockey fan.

I've always been a hockey fan, Okay. And when I went to school, I actually didn't go to any of the games because, yeah, because it was really hard to get a ticket.

You had to hard to get a hockey ticket.

Yeah, you had to sleep outside and to get the ticket. Yeah, I mean back in the day, this is what it entailed.

And I didn't do that. Yeah. Wow.

But then they started playing all the hockey games or the big game Red Hot Hockey in Madison Square Garden on Thanksgiving weekend and it became a bigger thing. Okay, so that's been going on for a couple of years, and I know I came on to talk about that. That's really fun.

That's a fun all right. So you're a Ranger fan. Unbelievable years so far.

For this so far, but seasons early, I mean seasons young, and anything could happen.

Who's your team?

Well, I don't know. I mean the Rangers, I mean I mean Yankees, guy, Giants.

You're from New Jersey. You've had a root for your Devils.

Yeah, you know, I've been to. I took the kids to a lot of game. It's actually a great thing to take kids with. Point's expensive.

Yeah, the Devils are very exciting though. Yes, young players, they're really they're doing a lot.

Yeah, but I mean Madison Square Garden going to the protection Duke Blue Devil's next Wednesday at the Garden against Baylor. Oh, next time, and that'll be fine.

Longtime listener called Wright sin Googenheim money behind the LA Dodgers. There you go, that's right, that's from mister.

Cinch Ye thank you. Yep, that's I remember that deal getting done. All right, Scarlet Food, thank you so much. We appreciate Scarlet Fush. She's a host of Bloomberg Television and Bloomberg Radio's Business of Sports. Michael Barr Damien Sassaur take a backseat to Scarletfoodle's let let's let let's let's be honest.

You're like the other way around.

You're listening to the tape. Can's are live program Bloomberg Markets weekdays at ten am Eastern on Bloomberg Radio, tune in app, Bloomberg dot Com, and the Bloomberg Business App. You can also listen live on Amazon Alexa from our flagship New York station just say Alexa playing Bloomberg eleven.

All right, let's switch gears, go a little bit political. Get President Zelensky coming to the States, coming to d C. Meeting with lawmakers to try to unlock some of that aid for Ukraine. Let's bring in Wendy Schuler. She's a

Yeah, man, I.

Think the momentum, I wouldn't say collapsed, but I think the momentum has slowed considerably. And rather than have a sort of a singular conflict that we've been very involved in and very supporter of Ukraine against Russia, now another conflict has opened up that has really soaked up all the attention, all the emotion and passion, and that of course the Middle East Israeli Gaza conflict.

So that has really become a problem for the.

Biden administration and the tendency in the Republican Party, particularly with the Alistair McCarthy and the replacement with someone who's more conservative.

And more insular in their.

View about the United States role globally in terms of military conflict and support.

That has happened at the same time, and so you.

Know that Caucus is not particularly persuaded that we should be spending billions of dollars to continue to support Ukraine. And notice that they have not yet, although they want to separate the Israeli eight out, they haven't passed the Israeli aid.

Either let's jump ahead to election day and when a voter walks into the poll and pulls the lever of the switch or whatever it is, now, are they thinking about Ukraine? Are they thinking about funding for israel? I?

Think a small group of people in particularly the Gaza conflict, a small group relative to the United States voting population. A small group will have intense preferences and they will remember either favorably or unfavorably, what the Biden administration has done, and then they will now listen potentially to Trump or Nikki Hanley Rondo Santis on what the government should do

Kind of on that front, Wendy, there's a couple of polls that one from CBS News, one from the Wall Street Journal. Biden's support of Israel alienates more Democrats in the new poll. What kind of calculus is the president, you know, kind of working on here? As it relates to his support for Israel.

Well, I think here we really see as we watch, you know, for the next months before the US pop up has had a daily dose of Donald Trump. I mean, we just haven't been exposed to the daily dose yet. If he wins Iowa, as we now sort of expect him to, and if he wins New Hampshire, we are going to get multiple daily doses of Donald Trump, and I think the polls will probably reflect a shift a couple of months down the line.

All on that comparison.

But right now, the Democrats face a real problem because at the congressional level they are divided on Israel and Gaza, and that division is obviously very public.

So going into the twenty twenty four races.

You've got house races, you've got a chance to take the House back, you've got Senate seats you're desperate to preserve, and you've got the Biden reelection all converging. And you don't have consensus within the Democratic Party on each of those levels on what the best policy path for is.

That Daily does said you're speaking of is the implication that his supporter or maybe not the core, but people are going to get a little tired of this.

Well, so this is the you know, we look at independent voting, especially in swing states, and we say, what has the pattern been twenty eighteen, twenty twenty, twenty twenty two, they did not vote for either Trump or Trump endorsed candidates in big numbers. The Democrats had the advantage among independent voters. Right now, the polling shows that advantage has eroded, not disappeared, but eroted.

You know, as he comes back into the limelight and independence are.

Reminded of why they have not voted for Trump or Trump surrogates in the last three elections. That's where I think the polling becomes more favorable, if you can put it that way, for Biden, in the sense that he's a chance to win those voters back into the Democratic camp at least at the presidential alone.

How do you think this Republican I don't know. Competitive landscape is going to shake out here is going to be you know, if and when former President Trump comes back and wins in Iowa and or New Hampshire's you suggest that'll just everybody will kind of bow out at that point because he will take all the oxygen out of the air.

Yeah, you know, that's a great question.

It really depends on South Carolina obviously, and they've got proportional delegation allocation in the Republican Party and winner take all as you move further down the line in the primary season.

So that's how Trump.

Stayed alive in twenty sixteen. He didn't do all that while in the early primaries, but he stayed alive and then managed to win many more delegates. So the question is, not only does he soak up all the oxygen per se, but he sets the agenda for the Republican Party. He becomes the symbolics postperson for all Republicans running in twenty twenty four, And now they're slowly going down to like

Think it's going to be a very tough landscape.

On the other hand, the Democrats are defending twenty seats, the Republicans are defending ten in the United States Senate, So the odds look very good for the Republicans on the Senate side, and the Senate Republicans have really stayed as far away as they possibly could from the House Republicans.

Whether you can do that with Trump at the.

Top of the ticket, that is the big political puzzle I think facing the Republican Party going to twenty twenty.

Four, this might be a little at a left field. But is there any doubt that Kamala Harris is the running mate for Joe Biden?

So I have said on Bloomberg that I think Joe Biden is running as long as he's walking, talking, and breathing, I still think he's running.

Maybe there's a little bit more doubt there.

But Kamala Harris is a big quest question mark, not from her perspective but from the Biden team. You know, if you really need a Hail Mary and Biden's still the head of the ticket, do you find a way to have something else for her to do and she stays vice president until next year, but find a different candidate to be VP. So the hail Mary might be Raphael Warnock of Georgia. There is no race of note in Georgia in twenty twenty four, and certainly no African

So I think Jordan slips, Georgia slips away. But if you have Ralphael Warnock, who's won statewide twice.

In Georgia at on the ticket instead of Kamala Harris, I think that changes that ticket's odds. So I think the team will have to creative because right now it doesn't look like it's a compelling enough team to make sure the same people got out the door in twenty twenty and make sure they'll get out the door in twenty twenty four.

All right, just thirty seconds left, I mean, is what kind of campaign do you think the president by and we'll run.

You know, we used to call.

It the Rose Garden strategy, where the presidents didn't leave the White House they said they were too busy.

Obama did that in twenty twelve in thirty seconds.

Let's see how I can do this, And then he didn't get out the door really until late September October when Romney was tied with him in the polls.

So I think they're going to do the same thing.

I think Biden is not going to travel that much and only get out the door late in the game, and we'll see how he does on the campaign trail versus the quote unquote vitality that we're seeing from Donald Trump right now.

All right, Wendy Schilder, thank you so much. We appreciate it as always, Wendy Schiller, professor at Brown University, kind of giving us kind of the political lay of the land. Twenty twenty four. John's gonna be here in a matter of days, and that's just election year.

Momentum, and the lead that the former president has over his Republican rivals is really astounding at this point.

Yeah, it's just extraordinary. So it looks like that will be former President Trump, at least at this stage, looks to be the nominee. We'll see how it plays out over the coming months, and there's some primaries and all that kind of stuff that the politicos like to focus on.

You're listening to the tape. Can's our live program Bloomberg Markets weekdays at ten am Eastern on Bloomberg Radio, the tune in app, Bloomberg dot Com, and the Bloomberg Business App. You can also listen live on Amazon Alexa from our flagship New York station. Just say Alexa play Bloomberg eleven thirty.

We want to get to our C suite discussion, Big M and a trade in the airline business Alaska Airlines and Hawaiian Airlines. Alaska said that it will be buying Hawaiian for one point nine a billion dollars eighteen dollars a share plus nine hundred million dollars of Hawaiian's debt. Joining us right now to talk about this transaction. Peter Ingram, the CEO of Hawaiian Airlines joining us via zoom from Hawaii. Good for you, my friend. So let's talk about this, Peter,

Well, we feel very good about the deal that was announced. I think it's a good deal for Hawaiian Airlines Hawaiian Holding shareholders. It's also positive for Alaska. I think it sets the company out, the combined company up very well to compete effectively in a very dynamic airline market. And obviously we're going to work through the regulatory process over the next twelve to eighteen months, but we expect this transaction to close.

I want to pick up on that a little bit, because of course, the Alaska Airlines investors were really spotted that right away. This issue about getting this past the regulators, and this is not an administration that's very friendly to these big mergers. So what's the main point that investors should be thinking about, you know, to put some meat on this idea that the regulatory process will go through.

Okay, Well, I think the regulators will look at this, you know, as an individual transaction, and look at it on its own merits, and what they're going to see is that you've got two airlines that have very complementary networks. We have, you know, big areas of our network where we don't currently compete with Alaska. They also have huge parts of their network where we don't overlap at all.

Alaska Airlines, some of their shareholders are skepule of this transaction, suggesting that Hawaiian will not return to twenty nineteen cash flow levels. We've got Southwest coming into the market. Talk to us about kind of, you know, the profitability of your company in today's market.

Well, we feel very good about our standalone business plan. This was a deal that came along and provided us a new alternative, but we were working very aggressively to better our own standalone prospects. Demand remains very strong in our core markets between the US mainland and Hawaii. We've seen good recovery in the Japan part of our business, which is a key piece that had lagged recovery during the pandemic, but really started to come on since May

I mean, you mentioned Japan. I'm wondering if you can talk a little bit more about flights coming in from Asia, because with this strong dollar, it might be something that is putting a bit of pressure on you there.

I think that will hold the demand back a little bit. Obviously, you know, when we were pre pandemic, the end was trading one hundred and five one hundred and ten to the dollar. Now it's in the mid one forties, so that's a considerable amount of inflation that a Japanese visitor looks at when they're coming to Hawaii. But we saw strong recoveries in Australia from South Korea and now even you know, Japan has come back over the course of this year, and we think that'll that'll prove to be

Peter, I'm taking a look at your balance sheet and I see you've got about one point three billion dollars of debt maturing in twenty twenty six, A big bullet. There's the what's the plan for that assuming this transaction does not go through? And how much of your balance sheet kind of brought you to the table to sit down with the last Airlines.

Again, we were really confident and remain confident in our standalone plan. We've got considerable fleet assets that are unencumbered.

One thing I wanted to ask you a little bit about is your costs, particularly your fuel costs. I mean, regardless of whether or not this deal goes through, this is something that's been plaguing a lot of people in your space, and so can you talk to me a little bit about what your expectations are there and how you're going to manage it.

Well, I don't have a crystal ball and where fuel prices are going, but I do know that if we look back over the last couple of weeks, we've actually seen some relief in the fuel price numbers, and that you know, as we forecast, we just use a forward curve going forward, So right now the outlook is a little bit better than it used to be. But you know, fuel prices are a part of our industry have been

Peter, as you and Alaska Air execs sit down with the regulators, what are you prepared to do to get this deal approved in terms of maybe routes that may need to be divested or how flexible can you guys.

Be I'm not going to get into any of the specifics on that, and some of that, you know, obviously would would be up to the Alaska team to comment on. But the fact of the matter is that these are two networks that are very complementary. There is a very limited amount of overlap. We think the market is incredibly competitive, lots of airlines serving Hawaii, and we expect it to be very competitive going forward. That's the nature of our business.

Last year, the holiday travel season produced a lot of delays, a lot of difficulties, and in the airline that came under pressure for that was Southwest. How do you feel like the industry is fixed up this year to meet any difficulties in weather patterns and do you feel like Southwest is still on the back foot here? Is this something you can take advantage of?

Well, just comment on our airline. You know, we're very prepared. We you know, make sure that we schedule within what the capabilities of our fleet and our staffing levels are, and we feel very good about how we're positioned in that regard. Our reliability has been very strong historically, and particularly over the last couple of months as we've recovered from some infrastructure challenges that played Tontolulu Airport earlier in

Peter, just thirty seconds, just remind us what's the timing of this transactional last air.

Well.

The next step is for us to file a proxy statement and complete our shareholder vote, which we expect to happen in the first quarter of next year, and then after that is really up to the regulatory process and the Department of Justice to review. We'll be working on filing the information with them and responding to whatever requests.

Peter, thank you so much. For joining us. We really appreciate getting a few minutes of your time. Peter ingram He is the see of Hawaiian Airlines, recently announced that Alaska Airline will be acquiring the folks at Hawaiian Airline and probably the highlight for Peter ingram As. He is an NBA from Duke University's Fucal School of Business.

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