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That title all situation. I don't know, Scarlett, I've said this before, and Eric, my entire life has been the magic drug that fixes.
Everything for me.
I know I have a mother who suffers from migraines and she would reach for the titleal all the time. So what President Trump is saying is certainly eye popping, I think for a lot of people.
Yeah, exactly, moving the stock. As Charlie was just reporting, we want to get the latest from Bloomberg Intelligence and Hunter van Kirk Joints as she covers the healthcare stuff for Bloomberg Intelligence and what is the what's the science behind all of this? Is there science behind all of this or is this just the present Trump and mister Secretary Kennedy kind of going off the range a little bit.
That's a loaded question. There are a lot of studies on it. It's certainly driven by an increase in finding a solution for the increased rates of ADHD and autism. I think it's really important here to qualify or quantify what we're talking about with frequent tile and all use. And most of the studies are looking at measured as more than twenty eight days over the course of your pregnancy, so that is a lot of tile and all use. We're not talking about you have a high fever and
you take it for a day or two. Is this is kind of more long term use. There is a correlation between tile and all use and these disorders and children, and I'll probably lose listeners if I go too deeply, but correlation is not causation. Those are two separate things.
And while there's a lot of literature out there, a lot of clinical studies, I would argue that the best ones look at sibling analysis, so they compare a mother who had frequent use during one pregnancy and not the next, and that's the best way to kind of look at this. And in those studies there was no findings of increased risks, and there have been several There was a two and a half million dollars a two and a half million children study in Sweden as well as a more recent
one out of Japan. Unfortunately, randomized trials are are difficult to do, there's just too many variables. But the sibling analysis is probably the best we.
Have so And when I think about the companies that are affected, certainly ken View, which owns the Tialnol brand, is directly affected. And we saw the stock plunge yesterday. It's recovered a bit today, up about three point two percent. But Thailanol's generic name is a seed of meenaphin, and there are many other companies that make a seed of menaphin as well. Are we seeing them impacted in any way? You know?
This is even for ken View, this is maybe a high single digit portion of sales, and that's thailenol overall. So you assume that the pregnant population is a much smaller percentage of those sales. And I'd argue even you know, before all of this, a lot of physicians, certainly mine when I was pregnant, recommended only taking town hall when you have one of those you.
Know, high fevers.
So I wouldn't expect it to truly be a material impact to any of these companies.
Is there anything else out there that is at risk? Here, I mean from just the FDA, I mean your coverage here, because I know there's a lot of uncertainty about which drugs are you know, kind of favored by this administration, which ones aren't. Is that Are you seeing that in your coverage of your companies?
Well, for pregnancy in particular, I'd say there are There are no favorite drugs. You know, you certainly were never suggested to take aspirin and Tilehall was one of the few things that was considered okay. But overall, you know, anytime you get a lot of media attention on any drug from from politics or anything else, it's typically not a great thing for the companies. But I think it does tend to even out as it passes.
You are senior equity analyst for biopharmaceuticals. When the Secretary of Health, Robert F. Kennedy Junior speaks, does he tend to move companies in your universe?
I would argue, yes, for better or for worse. I'd say they definitely move, but I would say that they go back to a steady state.
Stay with us.
More from Bloomberg Intelligence coming up after this.
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The social media thing, I think it's a thing.
It's a big right.
And you know what's one of the big pieces of this whole social media is the whole TikTok thing. That's a thing.
Well, President Trump has changed his mind on this. He wasn't failing for now he is.
I don't know where we're going on this. I mean, this is something that active Congress says, Hey, you got to sell it or.
You got shut down.
Shut I don't know what's going She joined that she knows what's going on. She's a vice president of insights for Censored Tower, joining us live here in our Bloomberg Interactive broker's studio.
TikTok huge platform.
You guys track everything on the data, the advertising, the in app spend. You know, you guys know what's going on there. Ye talk to us about TikTok and if I'm going to buy this thing, what am I buying?
Actually, what you're.
Really buying is the as we said, one point six billion in in app revenue that they earned just this year so far. I think since launch they've earned about six billion in app revenue. So for those who aren't clear, it's when you're on the app and you make a purchase within it that goes through the app store, and that is an in app revenue purchase. So that's one part of it that's probably the most lucrative. It is the most lucrative market for TikTok for InApp revenue. The
other thing is the value of its advertising, right. TikTok users in the US spend eighty minutes per day on the app, and this is followed by fifty three minutes per day at Instagram. So it's very valuable of highly engaged users. So it's a strong place to attractive market or place to put your ads.
I'm a parent, and what you just said is like, I'm filled with fear now listening to what you just said. What I didn't hear you say though, in terms of what you're buying is the algorithm, because TikTok apparently serves up content better than any of the other social media networks. Right, Instagram will serve you of a lot of things that you're not interested in. But TikTok seems to know and zero in of what gets your attention, So a US buyer of US TikTok doesn't get that, does it.
My understanding is that the ByteDance would license that algorithm, you know, technology to the US owners, and then there's been talk maybe you'd have to have a separate app, and that has gone away, But the question would be like will you still get that same content even if the algorithm is adjusted even slightly? And then what would the value of TikTok actually be? And I think the other thing, it's probably one of the more young or youthful oriented platforms.
So if the buyers that.
Come in are you know, kind of shifted towards more like a Facebook or changed the algorithm, it may be less attractive to these younger users.
And therefore, as an advertising platform.
What are the advertisers saying. I mean, they've got a vested interest in thy because they've you know a lot of money. They spent a lot of money on this platform.
Yes, from year to date this year versus last year, eight of the ten top advertisers on TikTok have increased their spend like Uber Comcast, so they are spending. There's been more fluctuations than Uber, just because I think people were unsure about what was going to happen to the app, if it was going to be removed.
But as of yet, it makes up about.
Five percent of social media ad revenue in the US.
We'll come second. I mean, if this thing is not handled well, or if this takes longer than expected and people start migrating to other platforms, who stands to benefit the most.
I would say Instagram with its reels. Time spent on Instagram as an app has gone up fourteen percent year of the year versus just one percent for TikTok. And the thing is people are spending about forty six percent of their time within Instagram on reels, and that's up from thirty four percent last year.
So there's a huge.
Amount of time spent on reels, which is another short form video media, and it's similar to YouTube shorts. And that's where I think you'd see people migrate to if the.
Sort who advertises on these the Tiktoks of the world.
The largest advertisers and shopping in pretty much all industries media entertainment. You know, Amazon is a huge advertiser on all of these networks, as was TMU prior a couple of years ago.
Shean Walmart. They all are.
Advertising advertisers that used to advertise on broadcast.
Yeising, and it's a lot cheaper to advertise on the still a more targeted theoretically, right, because they know what you buy, what you like, so they can target the ad Absolutely, that's.
A little better than eighteen to twenty nine men.
I know exactly Homer Simpson or you know Homer Simpson's son bed rotting. Have you heard of that term?
Yes, I have, unfortunately bed rotting rotting.
It's a gen Z term where individuals, usually teenagers, spend extended time in bed, not for sleep or illness, but for passive activities like scrolling.
And I've unfortunately seen that in my own house. Yes, I have seen that in what they are, and I think I can see from my own sort of anecdotal experience that algorithm works. I can hear them laughing, they keep wanting I don't find them funny, but anyway, they keep showing these videos and they can literally sit there and scroll for hours and hours and hours.
It was very meta because bedriting became popular through TikTok like TikTok kind of encouraged.
Yes, ass about it. Yes, it's like something to do.
It is glamorized, I would say by having this sort So all that to say is, if this algorithm shifts, there will be other winners, probably Instagram or meta platforms. But it like, I don't know what it would mean to TikTok itself if there was any change in the algorithm or any change in the way the content is delivered.
Right, And this is a obviously this is a global business. Yes, I mean I'm looking at I thought just most things, I just think. I just thought the US would lead in in use, but it doesn't.
Indonesia, Brazil, and Mexico are larger than the US. The US only makes up six percent of daily active users for TikTok, but thirty percent of in app revenue.
So what would happen if you know, TikTok us is siphoned off from regular TikTok. We're the only market that gets us TikTok and everyone else stays on TikTok proper.
If there was a separate app, I suppose that could happen. But a lot of the content that people consume is Internet it's global, so if you cut that off then I don't really know, and you can get the same global content from competitors like Instagram. I think that would be a huge risk to TikTok's engagement levels, daily active users, and then subsequently down the pipe advertising because obviously the platform is less attractive.
There's few people I have any sense of when we're going to get clarity on this whole thing.
Supposedly December sixteenth, but that's sort of a rolling deadline, so you see, I think people are still unsure of what is going to happen. But the news of the late seems a little bit more solid that there is a group of potentially a group of people. Oracle is going to manage the server.
That's been the consistent name throughout this y and a.
Couple of private equity but I mean great private andres and Horowitz silver Lake, who I think is the best private equity player in technology, and recent's little bit more VC earlier. Stay. Yeah, yeah, so the real names and oh.
They're definitely a real name, but it's just a matter of how they manage the business though after and how that changes. It's a cultural phenomenon in some senses right, so you can be careful what you do with it.
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