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Let's get over to Dave Peacock. He's the CEO of Advantage Solutions. He joins us live from Saint Louis, Missouri, and we want to talk a little bit about retail sales and the economic data that we got in this morning. Dave, I see retail sales coming in stronger than anticipated on the headline, but if you take out.
Cars, they're weaker. Cars and gas they're weaker.
What's your view.
Yeah, we're seeing i'd say resilient consumer, but at the same time a little bit sluggish, especially in the space where we work, which is food and personal care, primarily the retail sector. And some of that is because of the twenty two percent higher prices for groceries that you've seen kind of coming out of the pandemic. Well, wages are catching up with that. I think for certain consumers it's forced them to go value seeking.
Are we still way above pre pandemic levels. As far as things like that, the stuff that I actually.
Use and eat, we are so depending on the category, but overall groceries are around twenty two percent higher than they were pre pandemic.
As far as promotions, I want to set the table for Thanksgiving, so to just stick to promotions, the thing that the things that are discounting.
You know, our proprietary research, the advantage we've got says that forty percent of shoppers are going to either pull back or trade down as a shop for the holidays.
So when you have to trade down from a turkey, though, well.
Side be honest because it's ull per pounds, so you might actually see people buy a smaller turkey.
You also have.
Different price points if it's frozen or fresh. And then if you look at the other items in the store, you're seeing private label products growing in the retail sector while national brands are flattish to declining of it.
So rather than go with the butterball, you look at the Kirkland turkey. Are consumers trading down still from you name brand stores. I'm not going to go to Chico's, I'm more likely to go to Costco.
Is that the case with everybody else.
You're continuing to see channel shift into the value segment, into the club stores, into mass merge, and so yeah, you are seeing that channel shift with with some consumers.
Are you seeing the discounting? I mean John mentions it, he's always on the lookout.
For a sale.
But are producers offering discounts more than they normally would around the season?
You know you're seeing continue discounting, But if you look at percent of volume within the grocery store more broadly sold on deal or sold on promotion, we're still actually a little bit below pandemic levels. What consumers are doing to value seek is some are looking for promotions, but at a lower rate overall than pre pandemic. But they are looking at private label and they are looking at different channels where prices can be lower.
If retail sales are up in this period, does that mean debt is also? Are they putting it on credit cards?
Do you measure that you are seeing credit card balances increase and an increase somewhat dramatically. When you look at items like food and personal care, they tend to be within the normal budget on a month to month basis for most consumers, and so where you're seeing debt creep up potentially is things like higher value durable goods.
This is a question for both of you, who can afford a new car of these days? Well, I mean, it's.
Not average, it's not the average, Jill right. I'll just step in John and say.
Bloomberg News did a great story last week pointing out that even you know, the top quintile is finding it difficult to afford a new car, and therefore look at used cars.
That's why you.
Know, you see the retail number, retail sales advancing month over month zero point four percent. We were only looking for zero point three percent. So it's doing well. Then you look at the x auto number and it's doing poorly, and I guess that's because the price of new cars is just so high.
Is that is that the case, Dave?
I think that's the case. And you know you're looking at dollar increases and so the pricing plays a factor. So one thing that we look at, because we operate in the retail space of grocery stores, convenience stores mass merged.
But if you look at restaurants, you saw I think zero point seven percent in the service sector growth but pricing overall in food away from home has been growing at three plus times the rate of food at home recently, so food at home is prices have been going up around one one and a half percent in the last year, and food away from home and restaurants has been closer to three and a half to four.
But on the.
Durable goods, do you see prices of other you know, big ticket items like appliance is as high as they are with automobiles.
Yeah, you're seeing pretty inflated pricing. And what's you know, I don't know because we don't work in the automobile space, But the question would be how much inventory or dealers holding and how what kind of deals are being offered by both dealers and manufacturers to get product off.
These lots going forward. Are retailer's confident that they can still pass costs along to consumers?
Yeah, I think it's to some degree, And it's really a question of manufacturers more than retailers, because retailers are often the one receiving runs, receiving the pricing. There are commodities depending on what you're making, what food you're providing, what personal care item for instance, that are still increasing or still at elevated levels, and so you know, cocoa and chocolate is a good example of that, and we saw that during Halloween and it certainly suppressed some of
the volume during the Halloween windows. So people are going to pass it on when they have to, but I think they're more reticent given the economic reality.
What does all this mean for the holiday shopping season.
It's a short season, right, so we have a late Black Friday, we have a late Thanksgiving, and so you know the season will spread over twenty two or so days versus thirty four. And I think it'll be interesting to see how supply chains hold up relative to a more compressed demand. Sixty three percent of shoppers, based on our research, indicate they're going to shop a little earlier, so we may be seeing some of that creeping in
earlier in November. So it'll be interesting to see where the retail sales come out for the next month.
Hey, can you address for us the divide between the haves and have nots and what the overall retail picture looks like right now?
When you say have and have nots, do you mean by retailer or by consumer?
Well, we'll do both.
I suppose yeah, I mean what we're seeing, let's look at the consumer, because I think everything starts there. What we see is, you know, lower income consumers are really kind of strained in this economy, especially with the elevated grocery prices we talked about, which are a day to day item, and so they're the ones that are going
to different channels. They may be pulling back a bit on their purchases, which is why you're seeing slower volume, and they are looking at private label products on the upper end. One thing, at least in the food space where we operate, you are seeing for some is golp one drugs. You know, is as much as fifteen percent of a company's pharmaceutical expenses within their benefits plans. Kimmy
going now to golp one drugs. Depending on the company, it's not saying it's everywhere, but there is a belief that it is having an impact on demand, especially for that higher lend consumer. They can afford those medications.
Yeah I can't afford them, but I can't wait to get my hands on some weig of eurozempic.
Doesn't your healthcare plan pay for that?
They won't? They say, I'm not fat enough yet.
But what about me?
I'm doing my best.
John Tucker, we can both try and find it from an unregistered pharmacy.
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Let's shift gears a little bit to politics, or least large corporate involvement in politics. Brook Sutherland joins us Bloomberg's
Boston bureau chief. She's also the writer of the Industrial Strength newsletter, and she has a story out on the terminal entitled Nobody Knows What's going to Happen CEO's Brace for More Trump Brooke, it's interesting you kick off the story talking about how corporate leaders just really didn't want the same thing that the American public wanted, and that is Donald Trump in a second term.
Yes, I mean, I think you know, if you look at a lot of the post is that he has proposed, they're not necessarily pro business. You know, of course you have the prospect of lower regulation, lower taxes. Those are the types of things that businesses love to hear. But you also have the disability of a trade war, and you know, a reignition of inflation, which is not helpful for business leaders. And then you know there's also just the chaos factor, you know, the possibility of governance by
tweet returning and becoming sort of a commonplace thing. I think we all all forget a little bit about what exactly it was like during Trump's first term, but he would rather frequently target specific companies who he was frustrated for for whatever different reason, and that creates a lot of volatility, a lot of instability for these companies that really crave predictability and like to make their decisions on a playing field that they understand and can anticipate.
On the other hand, did you hear Jamie Diamond talking to Lisa Bromwitz yesterday from the APEC summit in Peru.
He said, bank.
Leaders, whether they voted for Trump or Kamala Harris, were dancing in the streets.
He was pretty upbeat.
Brooke, Well, I think it might on one industry you're in. I mean, I think banking is certainly one that expects to see a lot of relief on the regulatory front and probably would be less likely to be directly affected by anything like tariffs. Whereas manufacturers, even those with substantially US manufacturing operations, it's extremely rare for those companies to
have entirely domestic supply chains. They like to talk a lot about local for local manufacturing, but what that means is North America in terms of supplying their US operations. It's not necessarily just America. And so a lot of these companies rely on raw material or component imports to some extent, and all of that could potentially be vulnerable
under the tariffs that Trump has proposed. Now there is a sense that, you know, some of this is perhaps bluster, it's a negotiating tactic that you know, the policies that he's put out there, whether it's sixty percent tariffs on China goods, you know, up to one hundred percent tariffs on goods from Mexico, ten to twenty percent on everybody else, that these are not necessarily the final destination. It's you know,
meant to be more sort of a negotiating tactic. And if that is the case, then you know, I think a lot of these companies have shown an ability to be adept and pivot their supply chains. But I think it's very unpredictable right now and it's not entirely clear what his goals are. And he has focused a lot
on Mexico. And if you look at Mexico, that really was one of the biggest beneficiaries of the tariffs from his last term, you know, because a lot of companies who had supply chains in China decided to bring those back to North America. But they didn't put them in the US. They put them in Mexico, which has seen you know, a really big boom and spending, specifically by manufacturing.
Yeah, is there really a cost effective way for companies to bring their stuff back to the United States.
Well, to do it effectively, you have to have robots or automation. And you know, there are some industries for which that works better, for which it you know, makes more sense to invest in automation, and there are others for which it is much trickier. And you know, some of the companies that have been investing in Mexico are doing so part because they really struggle to find the labor that they need in the US. And so you know, whether or not you have automation, just getting that the
people that you need can be very challenging. And even now, you know, as we've seen sort of some of these labor shortages ease, you still hear manufacturers talking all the time about how difficult it is to get a quality workforce. And it's important to remember that this was a challenge for the industry even before the pandemic, which certainly exacerbated things. But this has been sort of a long standing issue in the US. Factory jobs tend to be very rigid.
There's no work from Hull. They tend to operate on like a very set schedule, and that is not appealing to a lot of the American population.
Yeah, it's I think a fascinating story and a fascinating topic. I just spoke with Peter Rollinson, the CEO of Lucid, and we were asking him if he was bummed about maybe losing the tax credit or the fact that his chief rival, Elon Musk is like best friends with Donald Trump now, and he pointed out, Hey, you know, we build and produce our pus here in the United States of America, and I think Donald Trump wants to keep manufacturing here.
One of the things that CEOs and investors always want is certainty.
It doesn't sound like from that that's true, and that's.
Reporting that they're getting much of it right now.
I think Brook's main point. Brook, thanks so much for joining us. Definitely recommend you read the story. Nobody knows what's going to happen. CEOs brace for more Trump.
You're listening to the Bloomberg Intelligence Podcast. Catch us live weekdays at ten am Eastern on Apple Car playing Android Outo with the Bloomberg Business app. Listen on demand wherever you get your podcasts, or watch us live on YouTube now.
We had seen shares of Tesla and Rivian sliding yesterday on a report that Trump plans to acts the seventy five hundred dollars EV tax credit put in place unto the Biden administration. You do see Tesla shares bouncing back a bit today. They're up three and a half percent after falling five point eight percent yesterday. Rivian, though still down, and I spoke earlier this morning with the CEO of Lucid,
Peter Rollinson. His shares are off another four percent a day after falling five percent yesterday and have hit an all time low at less than two dollars Rivian or sorry, Lucid trading for a dollar ninety nine a share. I want to bring in Steve Man, Bloomberg Intelligence, Global autos and Industrial Research Manager, and Steve, I guess the main question, how will the EV industry be affected by the Trump administration?
Yeah, if Trump decides to kind of remove or cut the seventy five hundred tax credit or EV tax credit, I think most people believe that the EV penetration will stall. If not stall, it will probably fall because a lot of the consumers are relying on that that's seventy five hundred dollars to make sure, you know, to bring down the price, the effective price of the vehicle. Most evs
sold in America are still very expensive. There's only a limited number of them that are under fifty thousand dollars. So the fear is, uh, you know, it's going to stall EV penetration. The automaker is going to have a hard time because they's already invested. They've already committed investing a lot of money under the Inflation Reduction Act, about one hundred and over one hundred and fifty billion dollars
to onshore a lot of supply chains. So it's going to cost a lot of chaos within the industry.
So they'll be under no pressure whatsoever moving forward, possibly to increase sales of evs.
Yeah, I think the automakers are going to have to increase incentives. I think what could happen if the EV penetration rate does decrease from about eight percent currently in the US. You know you're gonna lead.
He's gonna be.
Left with the strongest players, And that to me, that looks like it's Tesla, because Tesla does have the lowest costs structure amongst all the EV makers in the US, and if the market shrinks, the weaker ones will probably fall on the wayside.
And oddly enough, First Bro or what do we call him, first friend, Elon Musk, he's not necessarily in favor of these these tax subsidies for evs.
Yeah, I think, you know, to him, I don't. He thinks Tesla doesn't need them, And you know, it's it's partly true if you look at the amount of cars that are least and eligible for the seventy five hundred. Actually a lot of the seventy five hundred tax credit as actually from leased vehicles If you look at the amount of leased vehicles that Tesla have sold in the past twelve months, it's about twenty percent, so you know
they'll get impacted. But if you compare it to Rivian, you know, Rivian has about fifty percent of their vehicles and those and eligible for the seventy five hundred, so it could be a bigger impact in Rivian. Then that's probably why you're seeing their stop falling much more.
Yeah, there's a limit on you don't get the tax credit if you're buying a vehicle that costs more than eighty thousand dollars. And I believe there's a household income requirement as well, you have to be below a certain level. But if you lease it, you can get around at least one part of that tax credit.
Isn't that right, Steve? That's right.
That's actually what I'm referring to. So when we look at the companies who's going to get impacted, we really look at, you know, how many of those vehicles are leased. If you look at EV's in general in the US, the you know, the leasing penetration is actually upwards of seventy five eighty ninety percent, so a lot of people that actually buy evs are leasing it to get that seventy five hundred dollars.
What does the EV market look like right now? I mean, I know, if you read the headlines, you would think that no one has bought an this year. Like you know, the industry is in trouble because they're so unpopular, not just politically, but you know, since there's difficult to charge for a lot of people, it's just not an option. However, don't we still see EV sales actually growing?
Oh?
We are.
We are seeing EV sales growing, especially in the second half of this year, because there's been a lot of price cuts right over the past eighteen twenty four months in the industry and a lot of these vehicles have become more affordable, and even especially in the used EV market, those vehicles are very competitive to gasoline cars. What the industry is really facing is really it's affordability, and it's exaggerating. It's getting more impacted by the fact that interest rates
are high. A lot of people cannot afford expensive cars these days, and EV's are a little bit more expensive than ice at the moment. So what the industry was trying to do, and I think what the IRA was trying to dude. We're trying to onshore a lot of the production well on shore, a lot of the supply chain in the US in hopes of braining costs down so automakers can offer more affordable evs. And that's what
we were expecting. We were actually expecting the EV penetration rate to rise, especially into twenty twenty six and twenty twenty seven.
I got to break in here because I feel like, you know, Americans have shown a propensity for taking one thousand dollars plus monthly payments. I don't think it's about the price. Frankly, what do you are that's the big problem. I'm test driving right now at GMC Sierra EV. It is a fantastic vehicle. It's expensive, but I think a lot of people are willing to take on debt to own a car like that.
The problem is there's nowhere to charge it.
I park in a garage across the street in Manhattan, you know, capital of the world, and the only option they offer is the slowest potential charge for twenty dollars a day.
So it's just not worth it.
Yeah, think that's a very good point. Affordabuild. It is not the only hurdle. It's the charging and the range, and you know, depending on the use, I think a lot of people with the second vehicle may may get an EV. Uh, someone who's using it for daily commutes make an EV. But you know, America is a big country and people love to drive cars, and there are a big majority of car buyers that are you know, are you know, probably staying away from EV.
Because of that?
All right, Steve, great update, We got to hang out man.
I need to talk to you a little bit more.
Steve Man there Bloomberg Intelligence, Global Autos and Industrial.
Steef, not me research manager.
He knows more about cars than you do, and that's what I want to rap with him about.
You're listening to the Bloomberg Intelligence Podcast. Catch us live weekdays at ten am Eastern on Apple car Play and Android Auto with the Bloomberg Business Act. You can also listen live on Amazon Alexa from our flagship New York station just say Alexa playing Bloomberg eleven.
I know that you have plans tonight.
We were just talking about it.
You're an empty nester, right, You're gonna You're gonna hit the town with some Wall Street big wigs. I, however, have little kids at home, so I don't get to go out.
But I'm excited.
Nonetheless because iron Mike Tyson, a fifty eight year old man is preparing to knock out a twenty seven year old punk on Netflix. And there's no way I'm gonna miss that. Keitha wrong And Athen joins us right now Bloomberg Intelligence analysts for US Media, and she covers a course Netflix as well out of Princeton, New Jersey.
Is he really expected to win this thing.
Mike Tyson?
He's not gonna lose a boxing match to fifty eight, all right, Keith.
I don't know if you've got the odds on the fight, But what is this event?
I never I hadn't really realized it was going to be on my TV until I started reading the news this morning.
Yeah.
I mean, there's just been so much buzz building up for this matchup. It's been heavily promoted, heavily hyped, and I mean regardless of whether Mike Tyson or Jake Paul, regardless of who wins that. I mean, obviously the big winner in either case is going to be Netflix. You know, they have over two hundred and eighty million subscribers all across the world. This is by far their biggest foray
into live sports. And remember they're really trying to build a business here from scratch, that business being the advertising business, and you need eyeballs for that, and they know they will get the eyeballs with this matchup.
So how many people signed up just to see this match that?
I so we are.
You know, we've obviously I think everybody who wants a Netflix subscription already kind of has one, but you know, for those who probably don't have one, I think this is obviously going to give them that impet us to join, and we think it'll actually end up triggering a lot more subscribe viers to go on the advertising tier, which is one of the cheaper options out there at seven
dollars a month. And that's actually what Netflix really wants because at the end of the day, they want to kind of build up that viewer base so that they can sell ads against that. So we're actually projecting that, you know, Netflix over the course of the entire quarter will actually end up adding about ten more than ten million subscribers, which is a really healthy number for the fourth quarter.
I remember the conversation my brother had with my father way way way back when to get cable. The great thing about cable they don't have any ads. How quickly that changed. Yeah, now it's changing.
For streaming, dreaming, streaming as well, KEITHA.
The main question, and I don't know if you're read in on this that I have, is is it a real fight?
Is it a setup?
I mean, are these two really gonna go at each other?
No, hold bar, It's a real fight.
This is not WWE where it's stayed, so it's a real fight. I mean, I know all the bets are out there, so you know everybody's excited.
Yeah, I'm pumped.
This gives you some indication of like just boxing in channel. Can you name who is the world heavyweight champion right now?
No idea.
But I also don't really know who Jake Paul is, so I'm not caught up on non financial news.
In terms of entertainment.
The only thing I know is like what drives money making and streaming and squid Game is one of those things.
KEITHA.
I think a ton of people watched this, and my sense is you had to get to the end, and when you did, you realized what an incredibly depressing, like disappointing letdown. I never want to go through something like that again. I would pay money not to watch Squid Game again. But Netflix is going to bring out another season of this. Is it going to do well?
Or have we all learned our lesson.
Want to be gangbusters? I mean, Squid Game one was by far the most watched series for Netflix ever. And why that's surprising is because this is a non English series. I mean, this, this came out of Korea. It was made for you know, you have series here that are made for something like three hundred four hundred million. This entire series was made for something like less than twenty million when when it first came out. So it just kind of showed how, you know, hits can be generated anywhere,
how content can resonate across the globe. And Netflix will will, you know, obviously go all out on the second season, just kind of knowing how much of buzz and how much of anticipation has been built already, you know, for the after the first season launched.
So the Korean producers this time or are they challenging Netflix a premium for this programming.
I'm absolutely sure that they are.
What apparently listen, dude, apparently the writer and Geith it correct me if I'm wrong. I think I read the other day or heard from Katie Orshnale the writer lost seven or eight because the production process was so stressful.
Is that true?
I read the same thing. Yeah, I mean it obviously they went all out. Yes, it is true, and I saw the same thing as well.
I lost like ten teeth when they told me I had to co host with Matt today.
Dude, I haven't lost teeth since like the fourth grade.
How do you lose teeth?
I guess it's stress thing.
And I chewed tobacco for like thirty years.
All Right, keitha wrongnoth and thanks so much for joining us. She is a Bloomberg Intelligence analyst on US media and Netflix.
If nothing else, at least you know.
From listening to us on Bloomberg Radio today that there's something to watch on Netflix today Mike Tyson versus Jake.
Paul Who I guess is like you're gonna watch this or yeah, you know. That's a good question.
What time does this thing actually start? I have no idea, but I'm assuming it's past their bedtime. Does anybody in the control room know when the Mike Tyson, Mike Tyson, no, no, no one knows. Well, we'll figure it out and I'll put the kids to bed no matter what.
Now on Bloomberg Intelligence, Unis in Focus.
Focus on UNIS is brought to you by Bam.
Bam Mutual insures municipal bonds that finance essential infrastructure and provides guaranteed income to improve any portfolio. Be a part of Building America invest in Bam Bam insured bonds. Ma'n me and Paul one time did a showdown from Build America Mutual and it was a fantastic experience. Got to meet all the guys that were working there, got to really immerse ourselves in the MUNI market, which I love to do. We'll continue that right now with Bloomberg Municipal
bond reporter Max Adler. He joins us on Zoom Out of Los Angeles and Max, before we get to any of the specific stories on your radar right now, I want to ask about the potential to remove the tax advantage of muni's. John mentioned it earlier on how likely is that to happen?
Well, thanks for having me. It's going to be tough to follow up that fabulous ad read, But on the tax exemption, we don't think it's that likely. It's definitely something that's been floated. We have all of these potential tax cuts that the Trump administration is going to try to push through. They're going to try to extend the TCJA, and this has been floated as a possible way to make up some of the tax revenue that would be lost.
But we don't think it's that likely. Trump does have a lot of finance people in his corner, Howard Lutnik and Canter Fitzgerald. They have some UNI holdings. I would not think that he'd be advising Trump to get rid of the MUNI tax exemption. And the federal government hasn't proven that it can make up for the infrastructure demands that unipoke bonds take care of. Right now, muni's about seventy five percent of the infrastructure projects that are built
in the US. So there definitely would be a problem financing a lot of those infrastructure projects if the tax exemption was done away with.
Yeah, they'd have to turn to the taxable market. I mean, how likely is that?
Yeah, I don't know if that would be particularly likely. We do think that the taxable market would expand a little bit if Trump does get his tax cuts through, that would lessen the value of the UNI tax exemption to some extent, especially in bigger tax states. But yeah, no, we don't think it's particularly likely that all of the country's infrastructure needs would be met by the taxable market, all.
Right, So it's not likely, but this is one of the ways he could make up for lost revenue from the tax cuts. How what kind of shape are the municipalities in right now, because you know, a few years ago they were just swimming in cash and didn't really need to issue too much debt anyway, how do they look currently?
They're so showing some signs of strain, especially in bigger cities. We see a lot of different transit agencies right now are having a lot of problems that started before the COVID pandemic and was exacerbated during the pandemic. You're seeing San Francisco is having some signs of budget strain. Chicago has been talked about a lot. They're having a lot of problems funding their public schools and just with revenues
in general. So a lot of cities are showing some signs of strain, especially now that some of the federal stimulus that was injected into the cities during COVID is drying up.
All right, let's talk about sports. Sames traffic, and of field was pretty much destroyed by what was it, Hurricane Milton. But it's Muni's to the rescue, or is.
It Probably not.
It's actually the team that is likely to be covering the cost of this. So as part of their lease agreement with the City of Saint Petersburg, they don't pay anything in rent pretty much, but they are on the hook for any maintenance costs and the cost of repairing the stadium right now. And as you said there, the roof of Trump kind of Field was entirely ripped off during Hurricane Milton. They have about fifty five million dollars
in damages. The Rays have been contributing to this escrow account essentially over the length of their lease, which has almost been like twenty seven years at this point. So there is money in that account that they'll then use for the repairs, but it won't be it won't be AMMUNI funded repair projects.
Okay, So I saw the story where the Rays. Of course they're moving to Steinbrenner Field, the Yankee is going to let them use their training facility, but will everybody fit in there? And given the average fan base, yeah, they're not going to have any problems moving into a much smaller stadium.
By the way, if people have invested in that kind of paper in the past, you know, financing stadiums and the like, how well do those investments typically do?
They typically pay off pretty well. There's like a lot of demand for that paper as well. There are a lot of like affinity buyers that want to come in and buy credits of names that they that they know pretty well. It happens with universities, It even happens with smaller schools. There was a private school out here in La the Curtis School. Their bonds sold out really well, and that was mostly like affinity buyers. But stadiums in
particular do get a lot of those affinity buyers. It reminds me of a recent deal that the City of Buffalo, actually County where Buffalo is located, was marketing recently. They were trying to sell bills bonds as they were calling them, and that deal also was pretty well subscribed. It didn't draw as much retail demand as they expected. But certainly the institutional investors stepped up, all.
Right, Max, thanks so much for joining us.
Max Adler there, Bloomberg Municipal Bond Reporter out of Los Angeles.
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