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Okay, to the economic data of the day, you're looking at PPI. If you back out food and you back out energy in a month, a month basis came in up two tenths of one percent. But if you keep it all in there, you take a look at PPI final demand at four tenths of one percent, and you have to wonder, kind of what's going on and we how's the.
Right way to take this.
On a year on your basis, final demand was up by about three percent. So Mike McKee, Bloomberg International Economics and Policy correspondent joins.
Us literally no one better.
And I know that because he's my bff and emails me things all the time like price of eggs alex that really contributed to the PPI.
Eighty percent of the headline PPI was due to goods prices going up, and the majority of that was egg prices up fifty six percent. In the month.
It's AV and flu.
It has happened because.
Paul like, why can't we make more chickens? But you know, well we do, but then we kill them all. Yes, get AV and flu.
That was the major contributor, and that's the biggest reason that the core is so much less.
The important thing for the FAD is.
That the categories that they take from PPI and put into the calculations for PCE all were much lower, like airfares, insurance, things like that. So the outlook is much better than it looks on the headline basis.
So net December eighteenth, we're still expecting I guess a twenty five basis point cut.
We haven't seen any reason why we wouldn't at this point. A couple of FED officials have said they would be ready to pause soon, but they have said when that is so, Given that most of them have suggested they're still on track to cut rates, that's the bet.
Here's my question.
I feel like this is a day two story of the CPI that we got yesterday. Is that, I mean, inflation isn't conquered, like it's not, so why the still impetus to cut in a more aggressive way?
Well, I don't know that it's any more aggressive. It's what they had laid out, and it's twenty five basis points, so not going back at fifty, But.
Why even cut it all and we know that inflation isn't well, that's.
What the pause folks are saying, is that we still need to make sure that inflation's going down. And the answer to that from the other side is that inflation is going down and it would continue to go down given even a lower interest rate.
And one of the.
Things they can point to from the CPI is that owner's equivalent rant the crazy way the government and calculates housing costs went down to just a two tenths rise, which is the lowest since January of twenty twenty one.
So they have been waiting.
For housing prices to roll over, and it may be that they're finally doing that. And if that's the case, when you back out housing from the CPI, you're pretty much at two percent. So the odds are they can they're going to look at that and say, we can cut some more. Not as much, maybe as we thought we would, neutral maybe higher, but we can cut some more.
We also had jobs claims that came out today the highest in a couple of months. But I don't know, as long as I still see like a two twenty, I don't know.
What did you take away? You're you're in range.
The thing to remember about jobless claims this week is Thanksgiving was the prior week, and everybody took two days off, so nobody went and filed jobless claims during the Thursday and Friday, and so they all go last week when the office is really open, and we get this bump.
This is aught of that. Did they teach you that in like economic school?
Yeah, it's all classic holidays, holiday season.
It is an issue called experience actually.
Especially this time of year, because the holidays float, you know, they're they're at different times every year. And this was a very late Thanksgiving, which impacts retail sales.
Which holidays that Yep, we heard that.
Okay, so what are you looking at next? So we're going to get the FED on Wednesday? But then what I mean, like, what's going to be that market moving moment?
Well, we're going to want to see what happens with retail sales next week, which is the same day as the first day of the FED meeting. Retail sales are expected to have risen. People still hanging in there, still spending money. And if that's the case, then that puts us in line for continued stronger than expected growth, which should be in theory inflationary, but raises the question of productivity is at rising and absorbing some of this, So a lot to look forward to in.
The numbers ahead.
But after the FED, I think everybody looks forward to Christmas, yes, and Hadika, and we will get PCE at the end of the at the end of the month, but we will be on that game. It's going to move markets.
That's basically like, we're not really going to do much until the New.
York fair enough, it's working that week between Christmas and New Years.
You are pot you are.
He does it because he takes every Friday off.
In the summer, So that'sure. Yes, there's an idea. Yeah, it works at some point. All right, Thanks so much.
Mike McKee, Bloomberger International Economics and Policy correspondent. Joining us there.
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Friends Over in Europe cutting rates yet again, the third straight meeting cutting rates, and it doesn't feel like they're cutting rates from any kind of particular position of strength. There's just some concern about economic struggles across much of Europe requiring lower rate. Let's break it down with Hugh Worthington, European rate strategists for Bloomberg Intelligence. He joins us from London via zoom Q. Again the third straight time, the ECB cutting rates here.
What's your take?
Yeah, well, the markets had quite an interesting reaction to it, actually because I think initially it looked at the headlines that came out of the ECB, as you said, we fully expected twenty five basis point rate cut. But there's a bit of change in language as well, basically saying that rates didn't need to stay restrictive going forward, which I think initially was taken to be sort of a
very dubbish indication. And actually markets actually now moved to price a fifty basis point cut at their thirtieth of January meeting, which is a little bit harder than they had previously, basically being driven by worries about activity data.
But right at the end of the meeting, Christine Leaguard did actually sort of put a little bit of spanning works and say that that suddenly they weren't so confident about the outlook for inflation, and maybe you know, the markets were probably or people were expecting her to be more saying that there are downside risks to inflation, and that seems to put the cats amongst the pigeons and basically set the front end bond deals or bondials generally
in Europe, you know, trading higher again. So they've actually moved in a a ten basis point range around the ECB meeting, So you know, there's a little bit of a bit of mixed messaging going on.
So it was really that last sentence and let's go through that one more time. So Christine Leaguard said that she wasn't they weren't as confident in the decline for inflation, that she was worried about upside risk. Is that what I'm reading It just seems like in Italy a ten basis point i'd jumped to the upside in the tenure feels a little extreme on that.
Yeah, I think that also that move might have been a little bit something to do as well, that that people are concerned about this idea of pe P P pandemic que redemption. It's not happening from really actually basically she said next week onwards, and that pressuring on the spreads, that may be an element there. But yes, she said that she basically the I think the idea they that with a lot of the economist community is they look at the numbers for inflation going forward and they look
like they're as flutters a pancake in Europe. But then she said that, and you know, I think everybody's assuming that basically the risks look really biased towards the downside. She basically refused to or didn't go along with that track of thinking, if you like. And that came in right at the end of the meeting, and that seems to have just literally it. Certainly it made the currency jump,
and it made the yields jump. And what I think we've seen is a little bit whilst we are expecting a fifty basis point cut in January, what's markets maybe starting to do is just possibly looking for a little bit of a pause or less less aggressive cutting cycle there after that fifty basis point cut, and that that may be, you know what, the people that have taken away.
We'll see if they sort of trying to lean against that as we get sort of reaction, which it tends to happen with ECB meetings the way they look at market reaction, they may not like it, they tend to try and lean against it in subsequent comments. Let's just keep an eye on that going forward.
So Christine Legard, President of the ECB, calling out, you know, weaker than expected economic growth or just I guess maybe persistently weaker than expected growth here, what's kind of economic backdrop that's got the ECB concerned about growth?
Well, I think we had a we had a it's actually people are expecting growth in eure to be pretty poor for a lot quite a long time, and it's actually held up pretty well. We've certainly had the Olympics in France and the summer may may have helped things a little bit. But more latterly, you know, I think that the there's just the higher instrates and the situation obviously into of the energy costs in Europe and the Russian Ukraine war and everything else has just weighed on things.
And frankly, you know, the growth outlook has has It's going to be okay in twenty twenty four, you know. But it's basically that a lot of the PMI surveys and the survey data generally is pointing to at best sclerotic growth and in reality probably you know a little bit he possibly risk risk of contraction. Again, I think they looking at twenty twenty five GDP growth in the
latest forecast was one point one percent. That was one point three percent from September time, and frankly, they'll probably be very lucky to be hitting that one point one percent set of target.
Yeah, which really bigs the question. Also when do they actually start cutting because growth this week and they need to support the economy versus inflation has come down. Therefore they can remove that restriction. All right, Grace, thank you for explaining that to me, because I was so confused all throughout the presser and the statement and then looking at what happened to Italy. So I appreciate you. Hethington a Bloomberg Intelligence European rates, a strategist, but it is interesting.
You know, you can't argue with the global cutting cycle. I think we're now just in how deep does that global cutting cycle go and where and does that actually should that inform where you put your money?
Right in six station today we have the US Federal Reserve and the expectation is for a twenty five basis point.
But you would like the day mat I.
Got my right there, I got my calendar up there and everything I'm on top of it. Fed got is everything you need to know about the Federal Reserve.
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Alex Seal, Paul Sweeney, you live here in our Bloomberg Inactive Broker studio, streaming live on YouTube. It's head over there and Barry joins us in studio. She's a founder, manager partner of thread Needle. She invests money for a living. You know, I wrote in a chat, the surveillance chat this morning, I just dropped a note in and I said, hey, there is a palpable sense of optimism in this country since the election, and I think we've seen it in financial markets.
Did you guys change your outlook.
For investing opportunities risk post election? Here?
I actually didn't. And while I'm optimistic, I don't have the same euphoria that I think we're seeing translate into the into these market outlooks. And one of the reasons actually is pertinent to today, which is I think we're going to see interest rates that are higher for longer than we expected, not just because of the inflation data we saw today, but because the noise around the policies that we think are coming in next year don't lend themselves in my opinion too, having a rate cut, and
I think that changes the outlook for tech. I think it changes the outlook for some of these AI stories that have been getting the biggest pop over the last eighteen months. So I don't have the same you know, embrace of these massive all time highs that we're looking at for next year.
So the other point though is, and we just heard from President like Donald Trump, is that we're going to get tax cuts.
Yea.
It feels like we're in a very animal spirit place right now I appreciate stacks are down today, but like I think there was a spac yesterday, like bitcoin in one hundred thousand, Like this isn't like a twenty eighteen feel in some respects does that offset? Like how does that meld with what you're saying?
Yeah, well, when spacks are back and meme stocks are roaring again, then to your pint Alex, you know you're in this sort of place of I think we're in a bubble in some respects. Look, I think the at a minimum, I think we're going to see the tax cut extensions, right, we know that that's a certainty. It's I think there's a question as to whether we really see corporate tax rates coming down to fifteen percent. We'll see what the offsets are offsets are with tariffs. But
I do think where we still have uncertainty. Right we don't know what's going to happen to big sectors like pharmaceuticals right when there's a change in healthcare policy. We don't really know yet what the impact of dog is going to be. If we're going to see margins getting
squeezed in some big sectors like industrials of defense. So there is this optimism, but I do think that we have yet to understand what specific policies we're going to see from incoming President Trump, and until we do, I think it's difficult to make a real bed.
Where do you see opportunities in the markets in general? Are there any sectors that are screening well for you guys these days?
Yeah, there's some areas of consumer discretionary that I'm getting more excited about. So there's been a period of real noise around the state of the consumer. Over the last six months, we're getting more data that says it's sort of stabilizing to perhaps getting a little bit better as inflationary pressure abates for the parts of the population that's
been hardest hit. Experiential is a place in alex I've talked about this with you in the past that I've always been excited about, and I think elements of travel. The cruise industry is one that was really, really well, really well. And this is what I actually bought, you know, Carnival Cruise is one I bought in the depths of twenty twenty. I bought airlines at the same time. Airlines I hung on too. Carnival I sold out of too early.
And the reason was there was a period of time the recovery was much slower than it was for other parts of travel. People didn't want to be cooped up on these ships that are still that overhang of COVID and the leverage of these businesses, these ships. When you go buy a ship, you take out massive amounts of debt to finance them, and so I got spooked by the leverage levels. I now have conviction that the free cashlow profile, the margin profile, the ability to take price
of this business is back where it should be. The deleveraging is happening. So that's why I've been going back into these kinds of names.
Sorry you mentioned worried about tech than an AI. Yeah, I mean, do you is that really a levered play to rates? People talk about it as it's like a structural change.
I think there are some cases where it is a levered play for rates. I think you've got some AI stories where the free cashlow profile where they part of the product that are to profitability remains not obvious. I think there are parts that are not leathered plays to rates. For example, the big tech businesses that are already free cashlow generative where they've gone through this twenty four month cycle of cost cutting and they're regress aggressing, aggressively reinvesting
behind AI. That to me is not a levered play on rais. What that is, though, is setting up twenty twenty five for a real year of show me the money right, show me the productivity is coming through in your KPI is show me that your margin is truly being enhanced, showing you're getting adoption and you're taking price and this is not just becoming table stakes that I think is going to be the big question work for twenty twenty five is execution turning into dollars?
On the consumer? What's your view on the consumer? How do you think the consumer's doing out there? Because if you're going along a cruise, yeah, company, I would think it's pretty constructive.
Well, I'll answer your question in two parts. When it comes to cruises specifically, the value proposition for consumers is great. You're getting a vacation at a twenty five to fifty percent discount of the land based equivalent.
So I say that again on cruise ship, I'm getting a vacation at a discount of the land based the land based equivalent.
So if you were to go and fly.
You're looking at that.
Yeah, if you go to go fly to a hotel and that's saying Florida or a Vegas and then all you fly to a villa. Right, You've got the transportation and post a lot of these places. For cruises, you can drive to the ports of cool. It's all inclusive and if you you've got to think about it. Travel in the US has been really impacted by the cost of labor, by the services inflation that we've seen. A lot of these cruise lines are staffing with international labor.
They're going out to nations outside the US to hire their staff, so that we haven't seen the same wage inflation that you've seen for domestic travel. So that's why when you're a consumer that's perhaps been pressured over the last year or so, this is actually an interesting value proposition for you if you want to take a vacation.
More broadly, though, to answer your question, you know, I've been looking very closely at default rates on consumer credit cards, on auto loans, are looking at BNPL take up what that means for consumer spending. We saw these default rates creep up over the last sort of three to six months. It looks like they're now stabilizing if you look at the last amounts of data, so it feels as though there's a little bit of a reprieve coming.
Does that a consumer call extend in to say retail? I mean talk about stocks on a terror. I can't tell you the number of days that Walmart has been in a fifty two week high.
Yes, I love Walmart. I loved Walmart for a long time. I think Walmart's a little bit special and I think retail we have to break it down into a couple of considents parts Walmart. Let's look ahead to next year. Something like two thirds of Walmart's portfolio, by the way, is US sourced. So if we're now looking at retail and looking ahead to the tariff impact, I think Walmart's particularly well positioned in terms of its scale, it's ability to buy at lower costs, but also it's geographic mix.
You look at retail like Macy's for example, and what happened Jesse. Department stores are still really really struggling. You look at certain specialty retail names. I never saw this coming. Abber, Crombie and Fitch has been on this unbelievable tear so you've had some brown turnarounds that have been very successful. You've got other retailers. Let's take the dollar stores, dollar generals. They're struggling right. Their share prices are absolutely in the toilet.
So I think again, it comes back to what is the value proposition? How is a consumer being sliced and dice and who's playing to their strengths most effectively.
One of my favorite deals back in the day doing deals was Live Nation putting that thing together. You like that one, don't you.
I liked that for a while.
The regulators approved that.
I have no idea, Yeah right, Live Nation.
Look, I went into that.
I lost money in a bit for a while.
I'm now up.
I'm off about forty percent. But I hung onto it because I really had conviction. This googlements is tied into the cruise discussion that as the world gets more digital, as more of our lives go online, the flip side of that coy is people are going to look for more opportunities for differentiated in person experiences. And Live Nation, and specifically the concert piece, has been a big part
of that thesis. I've invested in other privately, in other events based businesses, music festivals, smaller localized venues and there's this huge demand for them. I don't think it's stopping yet. Antitrust is a question, the ticket masterpiece is a question, but for now I'm very approved it.
Yeah, well they are approved Googles and things, and they're under fire for stuff as well.
You put the largest concert promoter together with the largest ticket agency, I.
Mean, what do you think what's going to happen? Yeah? What about We talked about tech and AI, So where do you want to be a positioned.
In that sect? Specifically, where I've been more enthusiastic has been around some of these platformization plays. That's such a lot of syllables, but some examples are two specific examples auto networks. If we look in the cybersecurity space, So if you take a look at the way in which a lot of enterprises right now have put together at their cybersecurity infrastructure, they tended to stitch together lots of
esoteric solutions. And if you're sitting in the IT department or the risk department of these enterprises, getting all of these systems to talk to each other, to integrate to how the holistic solution is really difficult. The auto networks in the world turning up and saying, now, come to us as a one stop shop. We'll provide all the solutions for you. That's platformization. It's the coming together of all the constituent solutions. PA ANDW has been doing it
very well. They've been executing. They're willing to take pricing hits, they are willing to sell at losses to get people to switch.
Over to their platform.
It's panning out, it's working. Salesforce has been another one of those. Again, there was a moment where it wasn't looking so bright, but they've actually had been delivered delivering on that platformization play. And the reason I like these alex is twofold and on boards. I spend a lot of time on companies that are doing the buying. I know that they're actively looking for these kinds of solutions as buyers Number one number two when it comes to AI, I am a big believer that the big are going
to get bigger. That scale is going to be what ultimately wins in the collection of data, in the scrubbing of data, and the application of data, and so I think these platforms are going to be the big data gatherers and the big winners as we go forward.
Any part of tech that scares you at this point, Yeah, there are.
Some parts of tech that I feel more. On the hardware side, I feel a bit nervous about. And I've done a little bit of a one at on this because I do believe that there is going to be a reinvestment cycle as a lot of hardware companies and they're pitching at the Lenova's the world of talking about it. The apples are the world are talking about it, where AI is now being built into the actual underlying devices.
I did make a play to try and go into an industrial hardware around this, an industrial tech, and I think it's just moving a lot more slowly than I would have hoped. So I'm watching that with a little bit more nervousness than.
I was before.
All right, and great stuff. Really appreciate it. Ann Barry, founder, managing partner over at Thread Needle.
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Thirty, Alex Stel Paul Sweeney. We're live here in our Bloomberg Interactive Broker studio. We're streaming live on YouTube as well, so check us out there. I'd say, anytime I want to get the latest poop on China, there is no one I want to talk to more than Lena Miller. He's the sea of the China Beige Book. They have extraordinary data on China, the economy of China, that really no one else has, and it really gives them a
unique insight to what's happening there in China. Leland joins us from Washington, DC via zoom and I love to just start really thirty thousand foot with you in China. Give us a sense of how the economy is in China today really from your data, and what can the government do to the extend it once improve things there.
I think if you look back earlier this fall, we saw some of the worst data we've seen it in a long while, and I think that's one of the reasons that you saw these big stimulus announcements in September.
And they did do something.
I mean, they did spur a little bit of a increased activity and a little bit increased confidence. If you look at what happened in October, our data were much better. November the data were also much better than September. So you've seen a pickup in the economy. Some of that may be manufacturing exports being expedited a head of Trump tariffs, but you're seeing an economy that's better than it was. It's not great, it's not strong, but it's also not
catastrophically weak. So that's the position we're in going into twenty twenty five. It's sort of ironic seeing all these headlines about you know, giant stimulus happening, and you know they flood the economy.
You know, the economy doesn't need it right now.
If it needs it in twenty twenty five, it's because something's happening in the teriff in the tariff world.
Okay, so this.
Is such a great point because that's all I was going to say. So that signaling for more government stimulus and racus you think that is not at all true. I'm going it has to come from a tariff issue that that will then provide stress.
He Look, this is the important, the important point to take away from the second half of twenty twenty four, even in September, when the economy is much worse than it is right now.
It's bad, it can be weak.
It doesn't mean it's catastrophically meet weak, and it doesn't mean that it needs big stimulus in order, you know, in order for things not to fall apart. So what the government wants to do is just do just enough to be able to keep the economy stable. It's not reaching for higher ceiling, it's not trying to juice things.
What it wants to do is.
Get the economy stable, so they could worry about other priorities, mostly national security priorities, building up a domestic chip ecosystem, working on supply chain resiliency, you know, working on vulnerability to US sanctions, these types of things. Certainly a lot of things with advanced technology. What it doesn't want to do is juice high levels of growth. So it's trying to figure out what the minimum amount needed in order to keep going, keep going, keep going, and to not
have to worry about the economy. It's not a priority, but it's also doesn't want it to be it's downfall.
To what extent are they concerned? Are the Chinese government and officials concerned about tariffs that president like Trump is talking about.
I think they are concerned.
I think they should be concerned because you know, tariffs are coming in twenty twenty five. You know, we'll see as the administration fills itself out and as the policy gets gets more sequenced out, you know what exactly we see on what timing. But I think they understand that that there is a very high level chance that they're going to see increased pressure on their major growth drive right now, which is exports. You know, in twenty twenty four.
It's the timing of this is remarkable because twenty twenty four, China spent the entire year, including through she including at the Plunum, saying we are going to double down on our manufacturing and export model. We're going to talk about
new quality, productive forces. And even though we have the highest trade surplus ever and we have a you know, record manufacturing goods surplus, we are going to still double down on exports in a holy government effort to just keep pushing them out, pushing them out, pushing them out to the world. This is causing friction everywhere. But with Trump coming in too, who's particularly sensitive to these issues, you know, you're going to see you're going to see
a problem. So I think that they should be very worried about the terrifs are on the way.
What do you think where in China in terms of sectors are still the weakest and what can really be done for that?
Well, I mean, I think you need to put property off to the side, because property is weak in large part because they want it to be weak. You know, they have spent the last four plus years, you know, diminishing property as a growth driver, popping the property bubble, trying to keep prices down, trying to trying to extend as little credit as possible into the sector. So property is weak, but it's sort of separate because that's part of the game plan. What could continues to be weak
and two weak for China's future growth is consumption. So if you look at retail, you look at services, you look at these areas of the economy that should be should be soaring if the leadership was really paying attention
to this consumption as a priority. You know, mantra. Those that are not doing too well, they're they're doing a little bit better than they were earlier in the fall, but they're not doing well, so everyone keeps thinking that there's going to be this giant fiscal blast and consumptions is going to flip like this. In order for there to be a major restructure of the Chinese economy, you do have to incentivize greater consumption, and you can't do that through one off vouchers.
Leland.
If I were to chat with some folks on the street, whether it's in urban centers like Beijing or shang Higher on the countryside, what would they tell me? Are they concerned about this economy?
Are they happy with the economy? Where are we? I think they're concerned.
I mean, if they're traders, then they're trying to listen very closely to hear every time there's a stimulus announcement. Then they're running their computers and buying. Because this is about storturemasset market trading. You know, most of these things are complete nonsense, and they're being you know, being basically broadcast by the street by others because they're trading opportunities. They're not macro changes to the landscape. So I think most of the people who are on the ground trying
to live their lives are very disappointed in what they see. Yes, there's more policy support that's come in twenty twenty four. Yes there will be more on the way in twenty twenty five. But is this going to fix what ails China? China has extraordinarily low domestic demand and they're over reliant on an export model that's about to be hit hard with tariffs. So with that combination, I would be very concerned if I were a Chinese you know, a Chinese household just trying to figure out what's.
Next for me.
So based on that, what do you think is going to happen with tariffs? Like we were all talking about how President elect Trump, but by the president g to his inauguration, Like, do you really think that tariffs are going to be in the cards in a material way? Are this still the bargaining chip playbook?
Yes? I think tariffs are going to be coming in a material way.
It's funny because you know, the Street commentary and I get these things flooding my inbox every day. They like to pick up on some sort of personnel something or other, some sort of anecdote, and then that is their reason why they think all this is it's going to be a total, you know, a total non issue you know, Scott Bessen doesn't like tariffs, or you know, you know, or or Bob Leithheiser is not the administration, or she may come the inauguration, and therefore this whole tariff thing
was was was non existent and it's not real. I would I would spend a lot of time second guessing these things because it's very important to understand that in a core recept of what the Trump administration is coming to do is reorder the domestic economy and reorder international relations, economic relationships, and part of that is going to be with tariffs. You know, we we still to be still to be seen who gets tariffs and and how hard
and what's sequencing. I think the administration is going to work on that and transition in the administration as things come along.
The idea that China is not.
Going to see tariffs in a big way in twenty twenty five, I think is is a is a very optimistic take by the Street.
Really great stuff. Super appreciate, Alylan, Thank you very much. Lelan Miller at CEO of the Beige Book.
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