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Matt Miller here in the Interactive Broker Studio with Nora Melinda, we are taking you through this trading day where equity indexes are absolutely ripping as rates come down. Nora, did you see the tenure yield at one point was down fifteen bases points and that was the biggest drop that we've seen since August.
Wow.
I mean we are really on a roll here, Lisa, in the equity market. I'm seeing a Nazek up more than two percent, SMP up one point six percent. Let's to keep an eye on after that CPI data today exactly.
CPI came out well, the headline figure was still up month over month zero point four percent, but the core figure was only up zero point two percent. We were looking for zero point three and that's what is behind the move. I want to talk about that right now with William Lee. He's the chief economist at the Milken Institute and Bill. Great to have you on the program. We'll just talk a little bit about the US, and then brought it out to the picture globally, because you
have so much experience internationally. What do you think about the inflation picture? Because until today the worry was inflation was back on the rise, the Fed wouldn't be able to cut as much as we had thought, and maybe some said maybe even would have to raise rates this year.
It's always dangerous to go against the markets. But I still think the inflation rate is on the rise. It really hasn't shown really signs of coming down ever since the fall. We have corn inflation still covering above three percent and persistently above three percent. But if you take away the goods and just look at services, that's where I'm really concerned, and that's where I think the FED
is concerned. We have services, ex housings, forget about the housing component over four percent, and that has been rising since late last year. So what we're seeing then is a situation where the downward trajectory to two percent, which the FED really wants, really isn't in sight. When you take away the goods. This inflation which we have seen take place because the supply chains have come back online.
The real stubborn parts of inflation, the service sector x housing is the one that still shows quite a bit of persistence. And I think the FED is going to keep things tight until they see that going into a downward trajectory. And we haven't seen that yet.
So, Bill, when we look at today's print, and as you were mentioning and talking about some of the details, do we think that the equity market rallying today is a bit of an overreaction.
Well, maybe yesterday's a partial reaction to PPI, and now today's is just a sigh of relief that we are not accelerating upwards, that the overall index looks like as relatively contained, because I said, there are some vulnerabilities in that picture, especially when it comes to services, and and and and I think if you're a real investor out there, you're going to be looking to see this rally fate.
And and more.
More uncertainty that is coming because of fiscal uh and and international events is going to keep investors on edge and not willing to commit a lot of money. Yes, just yet.
Well, so what do you think about tariffs? What do you think about you know, the labor market right now, we saw a blowout number. Let's not forget last week, and the incoming administration wants to deport people, maybe buy the millions. How does that affect inflation at a time when we're trying to extend tax cuts and also deregulate.
Yeah.
I talked to a lot of investors, especially global investors, and and I think the consensus view around the world is that the United States still is the best place to plet your money. You know, I don't believe much in academic studies. So despite the fact that I'm a card carrying PhD.
Did I study under Robert Mondella Columbia.
That's right, And one of the great luminaries of the field came over with a paradox, you said, you know, isn't it strange that emerging markets where this capital poor. You find that a lot of the investors in emerging markets and the rest of the world are coming to where capital is really rich, the United States developed economies,
and that's called the Lucas paradox. And I think what we're seeing today is also the fact that a lot of people are saying, you know, despite always talking about diversification, I want to go where the returns of the highest, where innovation is the highest, where we're getting the most for our investment dollars, and it's the United States. And I think global investors really feel that way and continue
to feel that way. They always talk about Trump and the uncertainties about tariffs and how it might be the end of the world and we have a repeat of smooth Holly of the nineteen thirties and throwing the world into depression. I think that those are analytics that don't even pass econ one oh one. Those would be f marks if I were still teaching at Columbia. And the reason why is because I think people should read Trump's book,
The Art of the Deal. Right, you always come out with a hard negotiating line and then you sort of make a deal with people. And remember, make America a great agenda? What's that all about? Maximizing high pain jobs for Americans. That's really the agenda. And if foreign investors can come to this country and offer the opportunity to create more jobs for Americans, I'm absolutely sure that Trump
administration would be jumping at that. Now if it was China coming in, there's some high hurdles that they're gonna have to meet. But in terms of our allies, the Canadians, the Mexicans, the Europeans, we are continuing to welcome investment funds to come into United States to create new jobs, but.
Not the labor right. I mean, we want to During the campaign with Trump was talking about fifteen million illegal immigrants, mass deportations were the signs being waived at the RNC, and in a tightening labor market, it just doesn't strike me as the smartest idea to send that many workers out, and not to mention the fact that we educate so
many foreign citizens. Do we give them all the tools that they need to succeed and then send them straight home when they're done at our Ivy League universities.
And Matt That's the paradox that I think all of the executives from Silicon Valley are trying to correct.
Right now.
The key word that you just sad about immigration was illegal immigration. We want to sort of I think the administrations want to put a clamp on the amount of illegal immigration, but they certainly want to optimize the amount of legal immigration, especially when we train a lot of the students. We want to be able to give them green cards to be able to stay here to make use of their talents. This country was built on the talents of immigrants from the world, and the Trump administration
has been saying all along they really want that. So the key is, how do you emphasize more talented legal immigration into this country. Although some people on the ALSA might call it a brain train, but we've been draining the brains of the rest of the world now for decades and even centuries, and so that's not new for
the United States. What's new for the Trump administration. The challenge is going to be to shift from the immigration being illegal status, less skilled, into the more skilled and talented immigrants that we've always wanted in this country.
William Lee, so great to get some time with you. Never enough. Hope I can talk to you again soon. Build Y there from the Milkin Institute, where he is chief Economist.
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Obviously the whole market is ripping, not just on the CPI number and the lower rates, but probably also something to do with financials. Right, definitely, they all beat up. I love them, and they're all up pretty big. Even City is up like five percent, right yeah. Alison Williams joins US right now from Bloomberg Intelligence. She manages like everything there, but her main beat is the banks. And Alison, how I guess it's a twenty billion dollar buyback that's
helped investors feel good about City. But didn't they take down some of their goals for the year.
Well, I think they they sort of notched down their return on tangible equity target in the near term, but I think it's realistic. You know, it's interesting even Goldman Sachs, who had like a blowout quarter really strong numbers. It's it's it's tough to see them. You know, they say they have a path to reach their target. But I think what all these banks did was after twenty twenty one, which was a blowout year, you saw a lot of people raise their targets, but at these very bullish targets.
And JP Morgan has met their targets. But for everybody else. You know, it's tough and even with the markets as strong as they are, so.
But targets were pretty high, right, yeah, I mean Shannali keeps telling me that JP Morgan missed on equities trading, but equities trading rose two percent.
Right, I think because I think because they restated their numbers and so if you look at the restatement, what happened was they shifted a little bit from equities to thick and so I think that's why it appears that they missed on the equities.
Line, but really beat on fick and explained to her fixed income. Okay, see what's a thank you?
Yeah, it's an acronym that also doesn't do well in Germany.
Yeah, I'm not sure what it would be, although Deutsche Bank only does fit with oneesay because.
They're not good.
More you know, the more you know, so who's the front runner here and who are the laggards?
So you know, JP Morgan really continues to post the leading returns of the group. As I said, there, you know, exceeding their target in the near term. We expect they'll meet their target again next year. But I would say that for I say you that all the banks really had a good quarter. And it's not just the quarter, it's the guidance and so interest income coming in better than expected. You know, Wills Fargo and JP Morgan in particular raising their guidance for at interest income for next year.
The City Group, as we pointed out, you know they had the buyback is about fourteen percent of their market cap, So that's pretty significant. I mean, keep in mind the valuation at City and so that's why I think investors are even more excited about that.
Well, you know what that brings up an interesting question. We have the inauguration in just a few days and will be a different regulatory regime.
Not just.
Throwing out the Basil three endgame, but I wonder if these banks are gonna be able to do more buybacks, Are they going to be able to pay more in dividend? Are they gonna be able to return more cash.
To show that is that is definitely the thesis.
If you will.
And so a lot of the run up that we saw in the banks was due to this lighter regulatory environment. A big part of that, to your point, is the capital rules. So Basil three endgame as we call it, sounds like a movie, Yes, right, So it will eventually happen. I mean.
For the banks.
It's probably a good thing actually if it happens under the current administration, because the current administration, as we know, is very US focused and a lot of the issues that the banks had with the capital rules was that it was very punitive versus some other jurisdictions. So it felt like it put them at a disadvantage, especially in something like prime brokerage, and that's not a business that
regulators are necessary. You know, regulators generally they're looking to protect the smaller banks and do things, and you know they're not as concerned with trading and prime brokerage. But to the extent that this at this administration, you know, we would see the lighter rules come through. It could be good to get them solidified. The other thing, M and A less antitrust should be good for M and A. It's actually a little.
Bit of a how many banks are there in the US, in the United States of America, how many banks do we have?
Well, it's not it's not it's not necessarily even the bank insolidation. It's the fees that they'll make advising other people.
Right, Okay, so you're saying advising M and A for other industries. I think you're talking about in banks, because you know, in some countries they.
Have like four or five, but just a couple of you can count on your hands.
And this country we have we have a lot, a lot. I I'm not far off with five thousand, right, Yes.
So you're not far off.
But I mean the size of these g SIPs as we call them, which globally systemically important banks. I mean, the big really have gotten bigger. They have consolidated share, and they've gotten bigger globally.
I don't know if Nora remembers, but there was a time when we were concerned about banks being too big to fail. Okay, I mean you were probably in middle school at the time. But now they're even bigger. I don't know that. I shouldn't assume that your age is. But you know, twenty ten now is fifteen years ago, so into two eight, right, seventeen years ago? What grade were you.
In seventeen years ago?
I don't think I'm allowed to ask. Actually, forget that. In any case, these g sibs are g sippier than ever. Right.
I'm also so I keep an eye on real estate stocks, so I'm covering office rates and one thing that I'm always looking at is return to office. So we did have JP Morgan saying that they're pushing people back into the office. What has been the general mandate and what has been the conversation for the banking industry in general?
In general?
You know those that are front office, if you will, that are out there. You know, we have this banking fee recovery. Banks are competing with each other, so a lot of those senior people happen in office or traveling again, right, so a lot of for investment bankers, a lot of it is not necessarily sitting in your office, but being out there and visiting clients.
So we definitely saw that return to travel.
And JP Morgan, even though the five days a week is getting a lot of headlines, you know, the senior people at JP Morgan have already been back. You know, people that I talked to at the company were back, you know, May of twenty twenty, they were back in their office five days a week. So yeah, so definitely there is the return to office.
Office.
Commercial real estate, as you know, was a big concern about a year ago.
Or I guess talk to us about where that stands now, but.
We're definitely seeing some stabilization there and credit. You know, we talked about the net interest income side of things. When you don't hear about credit, it means it's good, okay. So you know, the office commercial real estate is a significant business for Wells Bargo. We're always looking at the trends for them, and we saw solid quarter overall net charge offs, very stable provisions less than expected at Wells and JP Morgan. And that's a clear signal for Bank America.
And it also means that the credit outlook for twenty twenty five feels good and lower rates have really helped on the commercial on the office commercial real estate front.
Interesting, yeah, very interesting stuff. Alison, thanks very much. I'm sure is today the busiest day of your year?
Today is the busiest day. But Martly, we have three but today we have we have four big banks that that I look at.
We had black Rock, we had Bank in New York. So so busy bank day.
But it's always easy year when the numbers come in solid right, and the trends are you're tackling it.
Alison Williams, thanks very much for that. She covers all the big banks for US. At Bloomberg Intelligence.
You're listening to the Bloomberg Intelligence Podcast. Catch us live weekdays at ten am Eastern on Apple, Cocklay and Android Auto with the Bloomberg Business App. Listen on demand wherever you get your podcasts, or watch us live on YouTube.
John Tucker, Nora, Melinda your subs today for Bloomberg Intelligence. As Lisa just told you, risk assets well, bonds too, also surging. And to today's inflation news, Let's get to some more insight. Lauren siddel Baker is accountabis and senior consulting speaker at ITR Economics. So, Lauren, you know, I get it Core is down, but is this an overreaction. I mean, it's not down that much.
It's not down that much. If anything, I see this as a continuation of the trend we've been on.
We like to see those splitting hair surprises to sake or not, you know, quite so so elevated as we have been. Certainly beata expectations. The market's going to like this for at least a few minutes. But I really think this keeps us on track with the trend that we've been seeing.
Lauren Rope really stuck out to you through this report today, So it's good.
To see shelter costs those contribute for just such a large percentage of overall CPI.
Still rising, still one of the stickier.
Aspects, the stickier components of inflation, but starting to cool off a little bit more. Again, housing affordability is going to be a concern going forward. We know that we're seeing more folks looking for rents right demand for apartments is up, Vacancy rates very very low for apartments, so the rental component, I do expect that to be a little bit stickier going forward.
Otherwise, though the big.
Drivers here things like airfare, medical care. Those are things that we know do cost more.
So no big surprises on the core front.
I think this is a manageable result, and I think this again keeps the FED on pace for those fifty basis points of.
Cuts this year.
Okay, so maybe we're headed the trajectory is headed in the right direction. But you know what, maybe teriffs are are headed our way and there are a lot of iffy situations coming up.
Yes, tariffs are a big one we have seen.
If we break down inflation to the goods components and the service components, goods really have been mundane.
Now in this most recent print, energy prices starting to come back.
We have been enjoying lower oil prices right lower gas prices at the pump for a while.
Starting to see a little bit of pressure building there, just with the macro cycle picking back up. But if we do get in a.
Tariffs, excuse me, especially those universal tariffs, that could drive more broad based inflation on the good.
Side of things service sector.
Again, labor market is tight, it is going to remain tight for the foreseeable future. So our base case is just for wages to cost work, for wage inflation to be higher going forward. It's really the risk to me of tariff's bringing good side back to keep up with the wage side of things, with the service side, that's when we could start to see inflation really reignite.
When we think about the idea of tariffs, Lauren, are there any particular sectors or industries that you're keeping an eye on?
So much of this remains political at this point.
You know, maybe we'll get one company asking for waivers on one thing or another, but really, if we do get tariffs that are universal tariffs that just affect everything coming into this country, not targeting just China or just you know, some other jurisdiction, some product line.
That's where I see the real risk.
So I'm waiting to see what the incoming administration releases for their policy proposals. Some of this might just be campaign rhetoric that they leave behind on the campaign trail. They do target those kind of high value, you know, really buzzy items like steel or things that are more targeted to China. I just I think at this point it's a political decision. I will be a political analyst. I'll just analyze the economics of it.
Lauren, As we think about the trajectory for the Fed's policy this year in twenty twenty five, is the focus really on employment data inflation data? It feels like that has shifted as we've been moving the past couple of years. What are you keeping an eye on, which prints really are most important to you?
I am absolutely focused on inflation.
So we have seen the focus shift from FED messaging in recent months and quarters.
Really that's because when rates started coming down there.
They're looking at the excuse me, the employment side of their dual mandate. They're saying, we don't want further loosening in the labor market. As I follow the jobs market, so much of that is just based on demographics, the number of jobs we need to fill versus the number of workers we.
Have to fill those jobs. Right now, that is still not a one to one ratio.
We have more than one job opening for everyone unemployed worker. So if we're looking at loosening in the labor market, I don't expect a major recession, major economic event this year. What could cause that loosening is more people coming in rite more either students leaving school aging into the workforce, more existing prime age workers looking for jobs who hadn't been participating in the labor market. Neither of those things seem particularly likely right now to really sway the tide.
So I see the labor market as yes, directionally loosening, but still very tight by historical standards, and that isn't going anywhere just due to the numbers of people and how they balance up. So with that set, the FED can't really put too much pressure on that side of the scale.
And inflation is the side.
We have a lot of fundamental drivers that are starting to signal inflation and picking back up, especially by the latter half of this year. So my concern as an economist is you know, we don't want to take the eye off the ball of the inflation side, because if that does pick up, I think there's a very reasonable chance that we could see the FED start to talk again about raising rates by late twenty twenty five. I don't think that's off the table.
So as an employer, I can attract employees because I'm going to pay them more.
At the end of the day, you can do a lot for culture. You can reach out and have a mission.
Well, no, I'm getting to the inflation component culture.
Okay, no, But at the end of the day, that's what folks are looking at. How do you attract someone to you and of the group across the street. This generation is a little bit more willing to.
Move, you know.
They sure, we love the mission, We love to be part of something, But at the end of the day, the dollars are what they get work. So, yes, that's why wage inflation is so elevated, and I would expect.
It to continue to be so.
Culture. The culture, well, I get to work with Nora, That's why I'm here.
I get to work with John.
It's a real love fest, isn't it.
And it's not even February.
Yet, what's your expectation for We'll put you on the spot. When are they going to cut? Yeah, you mentioned raising actually, so as for when.
They cut, I don't have a horse in that race.
I think two more cuts is a reasonable expectation, but if it's only one, I'm not going to lose sleep over that Directionally, we're seeing rates increase. We've already seen inflation expectations bring kind of market rates back.
If you look at even mortgage rates, those are back above seven percent this week.
So the impetus is really to the upside, especially by second half of this year. So the ultimate timing of that exact low the exact level within twenty five basis points. Again, that doesn't matter. Big picture, we don't need to split hair, So we need to look.
At the general direction. If you need to do borrowing, either as an individual or business, this is probably the time to do it.
Lauren, you mentioned that shelter costs are still a bit sticky. Can you just give us a bit more detail about what's going on in the housing space.
Sure, housing is tight.
We have been under building homes in this country, so household starts have not kept up with new household formations.
We just need more inventory.
Now that's a hard thing to do today where mortgage rates, as I just said, above seven percent, that is really taking a bite out of affordability, not to mention the.
Value of those homes.
The list price has also really picked up since twenty twenty, so it's a tough scenario out there for would be first time home buyers just trying to make those dollars stretch. And we're also seeing much less inventory come on the market up for sale, so existing home sale have been.
More subdued with as I'll say again that rapid rise in mortgage rates. Why would I sell my house with a three or four percent mortgage rate.
If I have to buy another one with a seven percent mortgage rate, that's a lot less house that I can get for the same monthly payment.
So we're seeing folks just stay in.
Place a little bit longer in the past I'll say six to nine months, a lot of folks have started to just bite the bullet.
If I really need to move, I will do so. But again, affordability is the big constraint there.
That's what's keeping many individuals in rental situations for longer rather than going out buying that first.
Home, and those almost really aren't going away. So affordability is the name of the game.
What's going to matter is balancing that aspect with the wage inflation. I was just talking about more people being employed, making more money. They have more money to spend on everything, but housing is one major expense. So where we're seeing some improvement in just our ability to afford housing, but the affordability numbers themselves much worse than we were just a few years ago.
Just anecdotally, I should point it at three point two percent. They're going to bury me in the basement. Of course, if the price is right, I can be out in ten minutes, that's true.
You all like to brag anyone that has a great mortgage rate in place. You know, we got to hear about it for sure.
Oh, Mike McKee, seven percent, What does that do?
It keeps people sitting on their hands. Although the interesting thing is it came out of the same day. We saw a thirty three percent increase in mortgage applications next month. Most of that was refi and I'm not sure why people were refining when raches go.
I'm curious.
But Mike mcke's Lauren, I didn't mean to upstate you. Lauren Citl Baker there the economist, senior consulting speaker from ITR Economics. Thank you very much for stopping by today. Mike McKee, our economics correspondent, among other things, hanging out his shingle, what was your big takeaway from the inflation report this morning?
Good enough?
It wasn't too hot, it wasn't too cold. We had a little bit of extra strength in the headline, a little bit less in the core. Both went up on a year over a year basis, but less than anticipated.
So the markets are taking that. I mean, I wasn't too excited this, but the equity market, even the bomb market is pretty excited, up more than two percent.
I think you're not looking at any anyone in the markets who's looking at what the actual impact of this is on the economy, and they don't expect it to affect the Fed meeting on January twenty ninth. Everybody's waiting for next Monday, what does Donald Trump do? So there was all this nervousness in the markets and everybody was pushing yields up, which hit the stock market, and today it gave.
Them a reason to exhale.
Wait till the end of the week. We'll see as people get more and more nervous about what Trump may do, whether that continues.
Yeah, as we think about this in about twenty seconds or less, how are you thinking about the fact that we are still not at at two percent target? What do we need to do to get there?
Keep it up?
And that's why the Fed may keep rates on hold for longer than possible or longer than thought, because they've got to keep at this point the pressure on to keep it going down towards two percent.
Okay, Mike McKay, Bloomberg International Economics and Policy corresponded, reacting to seven percent mortgages and today's CPI.
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Well, we have gotten a great guest here. We have Sema Shaw. She's a vice president of research and Insights at Censor Tower, and she is here joining us to talk TikTok. As we know there could be a ban upcoming and so we're just trying to talk about the mechanic waiting. We're waiting for them to get minute, waiting for them to get back to us exactly Friday, right before Friday, it would be ideal. So tell us what's going on here and what expectations should be. Is there
any movement here with the Supreme Court? And is Byteedance intending to budget?
All right?
So I can't speak for the Supreme Court, Unfortunately, I don't have any insight into their decision making, but I will say that what we're seeing what we expect to see first, if it is ban, what we expect to see, and I think I spoke about this was Paul earlier. Is an ongoing shift to meta platforms, specifically Instagram because
of reels, and to YouTube's because of shorts. So if you think about when we look at how much time people are spending on an app, forty two percent of people's time on Instagram is on reels, twenty eight percent is on reels for Facebook, and twenty seven is on shorts for YouTube. So short form video is obviously a key driver of engagement, which is all that TikTok is. So we expect that should it be banned, we would expect more users to go there. But there's more at
stake than just users and hours engage. It's also in app revenue. About twenty two percent of byteedance or TikTok's in app revenue comes from the US, so that's a huge chunk. And when we look at the digital advertising space, we see about nine percent of ad spend is on TikTok. So these are all dollars and hours engage that would be up for grabs.
Hang on a second, TikTok twenty eight percent, twenty two percent of their revenue comes from the.
US from their in app of their global in app.
Revenue, what percentage of in app Instagram's in app revenue comes from China?
Now that would be an interesting question China data. It's a little trickier for us to for cure, as you can imagine.
But I was only posing that question because Instagram is banned in China. Facebook is banned in China, Snapchat is banned in China. Interest is banned in China. No US social media apps are allowed in China, and yet we allow Chinese social media apps to cash in here. If the kids aren't using Instagram, I mean aren't using TikTok. They've started downloading red Note red Note, which is also Chinese, and Lemonade, which is also Chinese, also.
Owned by Byedance, so they're both Chinese Chinese apps, and we've seen surges and download growth of those two apps starting at the end of last year, and particularly in the last week, we've seen a big bump in red Notes downloads over one hundred percent ending through Sunday from the prior week. So there's definitely surges of users downloading these alternative apps. Even my teenager mentioned it, which like the you know it's in the media, and teenager knows that,
so we're definitely seeing that search. But that doesn't really make sense if that if the app because it's banned because it's Chinese, because these are also Chinese owned, So I'm not sure how that would work in the long run or if people would just move over and eventually
those would also get banned if they do. But the other social media apps like Instagram and YouTube don't have the same in app monetization that TikTok does for creators and stuff, so they would have to evolve their own platforms to make it as lucrative for creators as TikTok is.
I just want I'll just clarify, for the sake of those of you using a ton of TikTok.
Why who you're looking at?
Why majorities? If both parties are against it, so he's looking at me. One concern is that the Chinese could use your data to spy on you or to blackmail you.
Okay.
One concern is that China could shape the algorithm to send out more misinformation or stir up social unrest. And another concern is that China could use software updates for TikTok or red Hat or Red No Red Nook to infiltrate your devices and to implant malware on your stuff.
Valid concerns, right, but.
No one nobody cares.
Apparently it's a useful, moneyful demographic, so I guess they.
Donald Trump also doesn't seem to care, so we'll see.
Well, I think he did care, and then he pivoted, and now now he doesn't doesn't care.
Right because Jeff Yes from Susquehanna, who has a fifteen percent stake in Bite Dance, has given at least eight million dollars to a Republican super.
Pac Well, also, Donald Trump has his own social media platform.
This is true, which is very small, but it has.
Grown significantly since during the time Social Truth Social.
Yes, I wonder how that doesn't China.
So I mean, as we think about the app, what are the largest user based how much you mentioned twenty two percent of their in app revue you comes from in the United States? What about users are.
We users tend to skew younger. About ten percent of their monthly active users come from the US. But we've also seen this is sort of a separate, secular issue. We've seen a little bit of i would say mobile app fatigue, where you're seeing a pullback in usage of cross dating apps streaming across the board, including social So that's sort of a secular thing. And within TikTok, because it grew so fast was sort of the first mover
in short form video, it's seen a pullback. Like it's monthly active users were down in the fourth quarter one percent year over year DA user down four percent, So it's not seeing that same growth that the other platforms are seeing because it was already sort of saturated.
Interesting, my main question is what does this mean for small businesses because you've seen a lot of businesses that have actually blown up through the use of TikTok, or maybe you're introduced to new brands through the app. So I'm curious how that will actually play out in effect.
I mean, I think they would be forced to try to move to Instagram or to YouTube and try to monetize on those platforms, but again, I don't know if those are established are set up as to be as lucrative for the creators. So they probably would have with demand being forced to evolve their own platforms, but I don't I think that would obviously be a huge impact to those businesses.
And why are those why are those American owned apps? And by the way, I use the term very loosely, I'm being a little bit tongue in cheek. Right, they're obviously publicly traded companies anyone can invest, not just American citizens. But why aren't they as popular as these sort of byte dance owned apps.
Well, I think TikTok in particular was a little of a pioneer and short form video and that is what kid we had, and that's why you were a kid then, right, Well, that's why you saw the surge and investment for reels for Facebook and Instagram for shorts, and I believe Snapchat is building out spotlight. So short form video is where people's attention and engagement is going. So because it's so short attention span literally and in fact, because of that,
it's actually competitor or streaming and things like that. Think because time is finite, dollars are finite, right, So it's much easier to watch a less well produced one minute video than a whole show, right. And you're even seeing sort of the rise of short drama apps where there's sort of very poorly acted stories that come out and you watch you a minute of it.
Seema, we have unfortunately running up against your clock. We could have had you on for the whole hour because it is fascinating stuff and your data, your data is really fascinating as well, seem As Shaw, vice president insights over at Censor Towers and they collect that data.
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