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US Consumer Confidence Rises, Super Micro Slips

Aug 27, 202437 min
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Episode description

Watch Alix and Paul LIVE every day on YouTube: http://bit.ly/3vTiACF

Stephanie Guichard, Senior Economist, Global Indicators at the Conference Board, discusses consumer confidence data. Woo Jin Ho, Bloomberg Intelligence Senior Technology Analyst, joins the program to discuss Hindenburg Research's short position and report on Super Micro. Kathy Entwistle, Managing Director at Morgan Stanley Private Wealth Management, discusses her outlook for the markets. Michael Shah, Bloomberg Intelligence Senior Pharma-Biotech Analyst, discusses Eli Lilly selling its’ weight loss Zepbound drug vials at a discount. Ruben Hovhannisyan, Generalist Portfolio Manager with TCW’s Fixed Income Group, discusses fixed-income markets. Rania Sedhom, Managing Partner at Sedom Law Group, talks about the struggle of luxury brands, and how price cuts have spread beyond the luxury world.

Hosts: Alix Steel and Bailey Lipschultz

See omnystudio.com/listener for privacy information.

Transcript

Speaker 1

Bloomberg Audio Studios, podcasts, radio news. You're listening to the Bloomberg Intelligence Podcast. Catch us live weekdays at ten am Eastern on applecar Play and Android Auto with the Bloomberg Business app. You can also listen live on Amazon Alexa from our flagship New York station just say Alexa playing Bloomberg eleven thirty.

Speaker 2

Let's get back to that consumer confidence number, super strong coming in one of three point three. The estmate was for one hundred point seven. It's a better view of the economy and inflation, it looks like. So we wanted to go right to the source. Here, Stephanie Guchard, a senior economistic Global Indicators at the Conference board, joining us. Stephanie, what led the optimism?

Speaker 3

Well, so let me get this trait. It's an improvement, but I wouldn't qualify it as a strong improvement. The index is still in this narrow range, right, it has been for the past two years. So that's the first thing I wanted to say. But if we go into the improvement, so what has been driving the improvement is more positive views by consumers about business conditions right now and business conditions in the future. So this is really what us driving has driven the improvement in August.

Speaker 4

And looking at the measure of expectations for the next six months, it looks like the increase, so that's an eighty two point five from an eighty one point one similar increased relative to present conditions. Kind Of, how do you view the consumer right now, given you know, six months from now we could have three, four, five six interest rate cuts and on election in the rearview mirror.

Speaker 3

So consumer feelings about the economy are really mixed. So yes, they views about business condition improved, but at the same time, if you look into the details, they are getting more dicerned about employment both currently and in the future. So this is kind of it's really a mixed view about the economy. There are still concerned about high prices. At the same time, the inflation expectations have declined, the more they're expecting rate cuts more than they were a month ago.

So some things are moving on the positive size and something are moving on the less positive sides, especially regarding employment.

Speaker 2

All right, we really appreciate you breaking that down and you know, putting it all into perspective for us, particularly the job's part, it feels like that's very much what the Fed's also worried about. Stephanie Gushard, senior economist Global in Caters at the conference board. It's interesting. It's like the FED seems to be pivoting to be worried about jobs, and it looks like that is very similar now to how consumers are feeling.

Speaker 4

Yeah, and it does make sense as she put it, that it's kind of mixed read and that's why the S and P is still down one to one percent. I mean, sure, it's summer Friday vibes on a Tuesday, but we're taking it Instriday.

Speaker 2

It is my Friday, so it definitely Friday vibes for me.

Speaker 1

You're listening to the Bloomberg Intelligence podcast. Catch us live weekdays at ten am Eastern on Apple Card playing Android Auto with the Bloomberg Business app. Listen on demand wherever you get your podcasts, or watch us live on YouTube.

Speaker 2

Let's get to some of the market moves here. Super micro computer shares just just humbling like crazy today. This is after Hindenberg Research said it's short the maker of service or of server equipment. We want to get more on this with Woujin Hoo Bloomberg Intelligence, a senior technology analyst, did you read, Like, what did you make of the report?

It said it was glaring accounting red flags, evidence of undisclosed related party transactions, sanctions and export control failures, and customer issues.

Speaker 5

Yikes, there was a lot in there. I'm actually glad they sided our report than Jay.

Speaker 2

I didn't know that one.

Speaker 5

Okay, look a lot of the stuff that we've what I've read, they're non issues, right. They've been in the ten K and the ten Q filings as part of the risk and disclosures. They sided the delisting back in twenty nineteen. They also cited a related party issues as well, and these are all all known. I almost get a sense that they're trying to kick a dog while the dog is down. A short report because they had gross margin issues because of some aggressive pricing and supply chain issues.

So you know, I do question the timing of this report.

Speaker 4

Yeah, just keeping in mind super Micro from July twelfth down more than forty percent. But my question automatically goes to there's a difference between known issues and issues that people actually factor into their valuation or their expectations, Like, does Hindenberg releasing this report in your view make analysts maybe revisit the Bear case.

Speaker 5

And that's a great question, Bailey, and I do think so, right, because there were some I guess questions in terms of who they were selling to in terms of sanction related uh parties, Uh, the Russia in particular, and that's going to raise yellow flags or red flags of the US government, right, And and if that's going to draw a greater scrutiny, you never know what might behind that be behind that closet.

Speaker 2

So you said that they cided your research. What what else did you guys pick out from like the ten K and stuff in terms of their risks for super Micro.

Speaker 1

Yeah.

Speaker 5

Look, one of one of the things that that I picked out was the the related parties.

Speaker 1

Right.

Speaker 5

Two of their suppliers, Uh, the CEOs of two of the suppliers are the CEO brothers of the super Micro CEO, right, And that's something that I'm not thrilled about quite frankly. You would like a little bit of diversity in terms of the supply chain versus some of an episistic relationship.

And you know, uh, that's the big glurring one. But also they've had accounting issues in the past which prompted the uh, the delisting the hope is is that with the CFO that they have currently, they've cleaned all of that mess up.

Speaker 4

Well, because if it feels like in super Micro obviously everyone knows in video, but this is a stock that from over three years is up fifteen hundred percent, went from you know, one point six billion to a peak at fifty eight billion. Like when these companies go from small cap to large cap, it feels like incorrect me

if I'm wrong. It feels like investors sometimes gloss over diving in Dick's disclosures and just kind of take them as a component, yes and B five hundred and let that be their investment.

Speaker 5

Well, well, let me take that a stuff further. When when you go for a management team from a small cap management team to and SAP five hundred listed company, you know, you're you're still in your preteen years, and all of a sudden you have to act like a grown up.

Speaker 2

Right, that's so brilliant analogy.

Speaker 5

Right, So when you have that like a grown up, the management team have to act like a grown up, the irt IR has to act a little bit more professionally, would sense. And then look, you you have a broader range of investors that are looking at the company right now. I'm not saying that they didn't do the work right, but there probably was some momentum in there, because.

Speaker 4

I do want to call out. So super micro nine buys nine holds one cell. That's nineteen analysts with the biggest shops on the street covering it. You look back in twenty twenty one, five buys, it was Northland, Loop Capital, SUSQUEHANNASCJS and vertical groups. So to your point, your management growing up, and also I imagine the street following has to get caught up to speed on a stock very quickly. Yes, right, does that enable some of these things to maybe be glossed over?

Speaker 5

And I will tell you if I see if I saw some of the research reports for this past earning season after they had that gross morgin, let's just say hiccup. Theoretically right, the commentary behind that was a lot more critical than somebody who may have been let's just say, an avid supporter of super micro over prior to the big AI boom.

Speaker 2

I think the preteen adult thing is like perfect analogy, and I think that that just sums it all up. And for a question, because I know you can't actually answer it. But how much more downside do you think that there is? Based on the fundamentals? Like, where's a good way to think about it?

Speaker 5

So I'll answer it in this way. Yes, if I look at the valuation of the stock right now, right, we're talking about zero point three times forward sales, I you know, give given the AI momentum. Typically I like one time's forward sales. But historically they've traded at points seventy five forward sales, so they're playing their their value at a discount to the historic evaluation.

Speaker 2

That's a great answer to that question. I love that. All right, Booge, thanks a lot. Also, good to see you in studio. I think it's been a minute, all right. Ujinho joining us from Bloomberg Intelligence. He is a senior technology analyst over there talking about Hindenburg research report that quoted Wu Jinho's research in Bloomberg Intelligence. Let's not forget that, so get your information there first.

Speaker 1

You're listening to the Bloomberg Intelligence Podcast live weekdays at ten am Eastern on applecar Play and Android Auto with a Bloomberg Business at You can also listen live on Amazon Alexa from our flagship New York station. Just say Alexa play Bloomberg eleven thirty.

Speaker 2

You got the equity market doing a whole lot of nothing. Volume also quite light as well. What do you do when you wind up having Nvidia and you also have the jobs at a next Friday and liquidity is going to be super late at the same time. All right, let's get a professional view Kathy and Whistle Managing director Morgan Stanley Private Wealth Management joins us. Now, Kathy your private wealth management right, like, you're looking for the longer term.

You're not a trader yet. How are you looking at the results on four to twenty on Wednesday afternoon when Nvidia comes out.

Speaker 6

Thanks for having me, Bailey, great to be with you both.

Speaker 7

I would say, look at anytime you've got a company that has or you know, any sort of companies that have an edge in their industry, you have to consider that for the long term as well. So I would say in terms of you know, people who are holding the types of stocks are coming out with earnings today that might have you know, special access to parts of the market, or you know, you know, like a technology that other companies do not.

Speaker 6

You have to that's.

Speaker 7

Important and listen if you own it or any company in an IRA or returnment account, it's easy to sell it and take your games off the table because you don't have any tax consequences.

Speaker 6

You really have to think about that when you.

Speaker 7

Own it in an individual account. So that's something that we think about when we're thinking about our clients with their long term view and also how to leg out of positions as well as leg into positions.

Speaker 4

Well, how are you positioning for an advising clients to position for this AI wave When we look at obviously Nvidia the most important company in the US market, if not the global market. But we have super Micro, we have arm we have Broadcom, you name it that are either beneficiaries or have some exposure to a print that not only will move the stock in the market, but all of these peers.

Speaker 6

Yeah.

Speaker 7

So for companies that I think are going to, you know, do well for the long term and have a competitive edge, I would say holding it in retirement accounts is probably a better way to go at the moment because of the large tax implications when and if you need to take.

Speaker 6

It out, you shouldn't be a trader. You shouldn't be going in and out.

Speaker 7

People don't realize what that does in terms of the tax impact and how it affects your overla over all profit margins. So in terms of that, yeah, I want clients to have access to AI, and it's not just the companies that are providing AI, but it's the companies that are using AI as well. Right now, the market has you know, had quite a run up, and we

want to be more cautious. We're a little bit more underweight on equities as a whole, and we're also you know, trying to keep people away from the quote unquote over indulging in you know, the top seven or ten stocks that are out there. But at the same time, it's very hard to do when we see some of these companies running up. So it's a balancing act and it's important to really think about how that affects, you know, your full portfolio and not just one part of it.

I always say never put more than five percent of your assets into one holding anyway, So you want to really be that you're not overextended in any one stock.

Speaker 2

So you mentioned that it's not like you were crazy invested in the equity market. What is your allocation right now?

Speaker 7

Well, you know, I don't take clients out of their equities that are in there for the long term unless there's a specific reason why we're doing so. So I'm typically looking for clients to have fifty to sixty percent in equities, to have twenty percent to twenty five percent in you know, taxble accounts, municial bonds typically, and the

balance in some sort of alternative investment. There's a lot of liquid investments alternative investments available now to clients, and I've you know, heard a few times today people talking about the bank stocks and you know banks in general, and basically with all of the regulations that are out there, we're seeing a lot in the private market come in and take over for some of that credit access.

Speaker 6

So it's interesting too.

Speaker 4

And when you talk about some of those alternative investments a little bit more detail on that. Are you talking about like you know, privately funded companies investing in hedge funds? Like what are those opportunities?

Speaker 8

Like?

Speaker 7

No, different opportunities for different different people, different you know, levels of sophistication and also of wealth. So you want to make sure that you're targeting your asset allocation and the actual implementation according to that client's particular situation. But generally speaking, I would say, I'm talking about private equity, private markets, you know, different types of private credit, and

there's ways for clients. They've democratized it in a sense alternative investments, and they've brought the industry has created investments that are now accessible to clients that were not accessible to three four years ago. So that's very interesting and it's a great way for individuals to add differentiation into their portfolio non correlated assets. And I'm a big fan of that.

Speaker 2

When you take a look at what the Fed Willer won't do, do you care in your investor allocation whether it's twenty five or fifty in September, and whether it's seventy five or one hundred this year, or is the moment for you just when they start doing it.

Speaker 6

No, I care ahead of the game.

Speaker 7

I think that perception is really baked into the numbers, and if you don't start making some moves ahead of the decisions, you'll probably miss out on a big opportunity. And for example, municipal bonds still look really attractive right here.

Speaker 6

At some point they're.

Speaker 7

Going to become less and less attractive as those rate cuts start to happen. So for clients with cash, I am putting them in municipal bonds, not legging in, and trying to get them in as thoughtfully and as quickly as possible, because I think that's a great opportunity for clients right now.

Speaker 4

Do you think the market's ahead of its skis when we're looking at six cuts being priced in between now in March?

Speaker 6

It's possible, it will be interesting. I think that.

Speaker 7

I think we're definitely getting cuts. You know, this year we're getting we are expecting cuts this year. We're expecting about three.

Speaker 6

Cuts this year.

Speaker 7

And then I would say I would just take a pause and see what's going on in the reaction, you know what the Fed is saying. But it is likely that we could have those cuts as well. And again with the economic environment, political environment, everything that's going on, there's a lot of stake in terms of your personal portfolio and your individual wealth, and we really want to be mindful and thoughtful about that for clients and make sure we're addressing it and we're discussing it.

Speaker 2

When you're talking to clients right now, what are they asking in relation to the election?

Speaker 7

Just basically, is there a way to position the portfolio one way or another based on like what the potential outcome would be. And I think you know, certainly overall clients are invested like clients are invested, and we don't want to make any huge moves ahead of the election.

Speaker 6

We can make some thoughtful moves.

Speaker 7

I think minimizing tax impact for clients at any time, regardless of who's running the country or what the economic position is is a great idea. So menis are a great idea right now using you know, direct indexing, where you have portfolios that are trying to minimize tax impact by you know, sort of buying and selling and matching those off throughout the year in order to minimize gains going forward. I think that's also a great way to help clients get a little bit more alpha in their portfolio.

And the last thing I would say too is there's you know, there's going to potentially be some tax changes sunsetting of some tax laws that.

Speaker 6

Occurred a few years ago.

Speaker 7

And if you have an estate or you know net worth over you know, five six seven million dollars, you want to you might want to start thinking about some speaking your estate planning attorney about some trust you know, sort of implementation.

Speaker 4

And to bring it back to the equity market. Since I'm a I'm a big stocks guy, that's what I do.

Speaker 2

I'm like talking about tax and trust and you're like equities, man, Like.

Speaker 4

What about the lines that go up and down? You talk about taking a measured approach. Are there industries sectors that you see more kind of fairly valued or at least more of a better buying opportunity instead of chasing some of those growth e tech names.

Speaker 6

Yeah, I do.

Speaker 7

I think basically, anytime you look at different companies, you know, growth at a reasonable price.

Speaker 6

So you want to look at.

Speaker 7

The valuations of a company and see whether or not, you know, it's overpriced for what they're earning at the moment. But we like healthcare, we like financials, we like you know, consumer So there's other areas that you can look at, I would say, dividend paying growth a reasonable price, and income producing.

Speaker 6

It's interesting.

Speaker 7

I know you like stocks and we all do. We love equities. We're owners, right, not owners. But at the end of the day, there could be some really interesting opportunities in the fixed in code market as well.

Speaker 6

Don't dismiss that.

Speaker 2

Don't discount that, all right, Kathy, thanks a lot. We really appreciate it Kathy and Whistle, Managing director at Morgan Stanley Private Wealth Management, with her outlook on the market.

Speaker 1

You're listening to the Bloomberg Intelligence podcast. Catch us live weekdays at ten am Eastern on fo car Play and Android Auto with the Bloomberg Business App. Listen on demand wherever you get your podcasts, or watch us live on YouTube.

Speaker 2

One of the top stories of the day is also Eli Lilly now selling some zepbound bials at a fifty percent discount to the shots. Michael Shatz, Bloomberg Intelligence Senior Pharma biotech analysts, can we just make help me understand why this is easier for Eli Lilly to produce than the actual shots?

Speaker 8

Absolutely, I mean the announcement state doesn't really come as a supply surprise on the aack of you know, the type supply. So yeah, they're providing a valve for relation. It's something that they've talked about, you know, for a while now on their calls. Now, the reason why these are easier to produce produce is you know, the fill and finished capacity, So the capacity needed to actually put the drug in the pens and the capacity needed to

manufacture at the pens of the subcutaneous ejection. So overall, I think, you know, the move is you know positive for Lily clearly broaden's access or patients access you know to ze bound and also from you know, compounding pharmacy standpoint. The fact that the improved supply means that could you know, possibly combat you know, competition from you know, companies such as Hymns, Hymns and Hers.

Speaker 4

Yeah, Lily not so subtly saying that they want to aim to protect patients from quote, counterfeit, fake unsafe for untested knockoffs. So how does that impact kind of the business and demand If we're seeing a cheaper version being sold and maybe try and to court some of those Hymns and Hers g LP one users, how does that impact kind of the total addressable market and expectations for sales of zepp out.

Speaker 8

Well, I think if there's you know, if there's a branded bile formulation out there and there's obviously guarantees around kind of purity, et cetera, I think that's going to be the preferred choice. The fact that you're introducing these valves into the market would suggest that you know, some of that supply burden and supply shortage which is needed for a compounding pharmacy to produce a drug that is on pattern. You know, some of that will be alleviated there.

So that's kind of why we think it's positive for Lily. As to whether you know, companies like him and hers will continue producing you know, their versions of the GEO beyond ones, I mean, that remains to be seen. But I imagine if they do, you know, Lily would you know, probably challenge it.

Speaker 2

When people then do their own shots, like administer it, like is there a risk in that? Like, well, what what kind of uptake are we expecting from that? Because I would be scared to do it. But maybe that's just me.

Speaker 8

I mean I think judging by you know, what we saw for uptake of these compounded drugs, there's clearly a appetite for injectable therapy injections. Now, you know, we looked at the diabetes market. You know, some of the incidents used to be injections, So I mean, I think it's not I mean, there's clearly kind of an increased kind of dosing burden associated within these injections, so they're probably not going to be suitable for all. But you know, I think there is going to be an appetite for it.

Speaker 4

What does this mean for the competitive landscape? So you have Lily, you have Novo. To your point, you have hymns and hers like, is this going to create a pricing war? Am I reading too much into that?

Speaker 8

I mean when we look at the I mean the headlines had fifty percent you know, discount, but we need to remember that, you know, on a net price basis, so you know, after taking account all the rebates and discounts, you know, the pricing is probably you know, fairly similar to the current net prices that we're seeing now at the moment. You know, it's an under penetrated market. You know, there's massive demand out there, there's tight supply. So I don't think it's gonna change too much in terms of

the dynamics between you know, Novo and Lily. I think I think prescribing decisions are you know, less about kind of the profiles of the drug at the moment and more about you know, what is ensured, what can people get their hands on? So near term, I don't see

you know that that changing from a Lily perspective. You know, as they ramp up supply over the over the midterm of their you know, their pens you know, you could potentially see you know, patients switching from the injectable onto the pen as and when that supply comes comes on board.

Speaker 2

Fair enough, all right, Michael, thanks a lot, really appreciate it. Michael Shot joining us Bloomberg Intelligence senior Pharma biotech analyst.

Speaker 1

You're listening to the Bloomberg Intelligence Podcast. Catch us live weekdays at ten am Eastern on applecar Play and Android Auto with the Bloomberg Business app. You can also listen live on Amazon Alexa from our flagship New York station. Just say Alexa play Bloomberg eleven thirty.

Speaker 2

So markets are definitely quiet, there are some catalyst in video. We still have some data coming out. We get retail numbers from many stores coming up the next few days. And you have the jobs at a next Friday. So we want to check in with Rubin Hovanacion, his general portfolio manager at TCW's fixed income group. Hey, Rubin, what's my position right now headed into the next week and a half.

Speaker 9

Well, good morning, and thanks for having me on. Well our position is that, well, I guess it's it's probably worth mentioning that we've seen a significant reprising in the rates markets over the last month month and a half. So we've basically gone from pricing in only two cuts this year and a terminal rate of three point seven percent in mid twenty twenty six, to pricing in about four cuts this year and a terminal rate of about three percent again in mid twenty twenty six in the

second quard of twenty twenty six. That's a sixty seventy basis points repricing in the forward rate curve. And what we find interesting is that when you look at the credit markets and equity markets, there was some weakness in the first week of August in those markets as well, which would be consistent with that reprising, but by now

all of that weakness has been retraced. So if you look at the credit markets, for example, credit sprates both IG and high yield have retraced all the widening and they're back to their mid July levels or end of July levels. And if you look at equity markets, equities are retesting the old time highs reached in mid July.

So we look at that and we think there's a little bit of a disconnect, a little bit of discontent inconsistency, because if you believe that the rates market has reprised because the investment community thinks the economy is weaker now and it's going to be weaker on a go forward basis, in fact, so much weaker that would require the FED to intervene, intervene sooner and cut more. Then you would think that some of that weakness should also be reflected

in equity markets and credit markets. But we don't see that currently, so that I guess one reasonable one explanation for that would be that the market or one takeaway from that, is that the market has gone from price pricing in no lending to pricing in some sort of

a perfect soft lending. In other words, this notion that the FED has a lot of room to cut, the FED will be able to navigate the cycle, the slate cycle perfectly and calibrate the rate just right to the right level to forestall the slowing economy and not not and at the same time not cause reacceleration of inflation. Excuse me, and obviously, yes, were.

Speaker 4

We surprised at all when we hear jaypow Will say the time has come. I mean it seemed like maybe with the expectations around Jackson Hall would be keeping kind of giving the all clear, but maybe not necessarily signaling that we're going to have at least as the rate market is implying what five or six straight cuts.

Speaker 9

We at t CW were not surprised because we have been of the opinion for a long time that the economy has been slowing, although the headline numbers sometimes may not lead you to that conclusion. But when you peel off a few layers and you look under the hoot, you would you would see slowing, you know, labor market for example, based on the forward looking indicators, you know, starting from the from for a year now, I guess

we have been seeing slowing off consumption. For six months now, we've been seeing we've been seeing the slowing of the credit creation in the economy, and all of those were indicative of slowing economy for some time. Yet I think I tend to agree with you that declaring victory over inflation and telling that the time has come to shift to the second mandate of the Fed at the time when core CPI is a three point two percent and core PCE as a two point six percent indicates that

they get it. They do understand that the downside risks are now real and they have to shift and they have to act to try to arrest the declining economic growth.

Speaker 2

All right, Rubin, we're gonna leave it there, Thank you so much. Rubin Hovnacian a general portfolio manager with TCW's Fixed Income group. And just to point out, we get the two year auction today coming at sixty eight billion dollars, then we get a five year for seventy billion, seven year and forty four billion, So lots of ways to kind of wager on the FED and supply over the next couple of days as well.

Speaker 1

You're listening to the Bloomberg Intelligence Podcast. Catch us live weekdays at ten am Eastern on applecard Play and royd Outo with the Bloomberg Business. You can also listen live on Amazon Alexa from our flagship New York station, Just Say Alexa, playing Bloomberg eleven thirty.

Speaker 2

Dlex Steel here alongside the Ellipshalaltz. Paul Sweeney is off today. This is Moving Intelligence Radio. We are broadcasting to live from an interactive broker studio right here in Midtown Manhattan, so Paul's not here so we can talk about shopping. I love shopping. I love shopping on sales. I will only shop on sales. I will only pay full price for face care, birkenstocks and bionics because I have to. I have bad feet, so I like I don't have

a choice discretionary spending. Not I can wear heels or birkenstocks are bionics? That's it, John Twners details. You don't really have to tell everybody about do you want? I'm no, come on, I love it. Didn't you talk about the whole fan and ice thing or was that in commercial break?

Speaker 1

I think there's a commercial excellent.

Speaker 2

Okay, that's a different story. I've had a cool year home without air conditioner. Anyway, I wanted to get an expert on this because I'm personally interested in what the sales are going to be like for the summer, which just begs the question how much our luxury and other goods and other stores have to cut prices to get consumers in there in the store when they really are trying to splice and dice where they're spending is Sarani I said Home is managing partner at said Home Law Group.

She joins us now. The law group provides the ability to immediately access counsel to provide practical solutions on critical issues for all kinds of kinds of companies, particularly though most of their clients tend to be in fashion, luxury goods, technology, and food and beverage. It's good to have you in the studio. Thank you so much for joining us.

Speaker 1

Thank you.

Speaker 2

So, what's the common question you're getting right now?

Speaker 10

Everyone is asking when is the economy going to improve? And how can I mitigate any risks because people are afraid they're going to have to file for bankruptcy.

Speaker 2

Wow, okay, so it's that bad for some of these guys that bankruptcy is on it is.

Speaker 10

I mean, retail is hurting. If you just walk down the street. Most people are walking around without bags. There's a lot of window shopping or whatever it's called when you enter and don't buy other kinds of shopping. But buying is on hold. And I think consumers are being pickier because they don't have as much disposable income.

Speaker 4

And we've been tracking and talking to economists about the k shape recovery post pandemic, So people who are affluent can still buy whatever they want, and others are having to seek deals how does that impact potential clients or companies that could be going bankrupt? Is that kind of skewing more towards the middle of the road, those are the companies that are worse off.

Speaker 10

I think so, yes, you know, it's it's very dangerous in the middle. Those who are catering to the one percent or the point one percent generally or fine like Ermez and Chanel and those brands, and those who are catering to people with no disposable income that sell food or things like that are generally okay because you have

to eat. But when you're going into the mid market and trying to get Henry's or you know, middle class, whether it's middle middle class or upper middle class, it's very very difficult.

Speaker 2

So what's the strategy before we get to bankruptcy here? Because that's where the price cuts come into play.

Speaker 8

Right?

Speaker 2

Can they cut enough to get enough consumers in the stores to buy enough to make up for the revenue lot from the margin cut.

Speaker 10

Well, it's been working for Target. You know, Target cut about fifteen hundred of their goods buy substantial amounts, you know, over twenty percent, and I think they just reported earlier this week or maybe last week, last week. Yeah, because it's only a lens. Yeah, it's only Tuesday. Yes, that they're up finally, and they have a better forecast for the remainder of the year. So it does seem to

be working for them. Whether it's working for luxury brands, it's too soon to say, but you know Burbery and YSL for example, Saint Laurent, they've cut their prices I would say by at least ten percent on many products, and I don't know yet whether it's going to help them.

Speaker 4

I'm just gonna ask the dumb question to someone who is not buy a lot of nice goods. Does ten percent really move the kind of people who would be buying a four hundred dollars belt off the sidelines to buy one?

Speaker 10

It certainly can be because the ten percent also reduces your tax in New York, right, so we're spending what eight, eight or nine percent, So ten percent reduction is more than a ten percent reduction in a way. So yeah, it can move the needle.

Speaker 2

It wouldn't move my needle, But I guess I'm just thinking from my put. I'm not their customer like to begin with, but you know, I like sales like you know, fifty percent like ten percent, ain't gonna cut it.

Speaker 4

That's why I asked, because like Macy's had underwhelming results. If I go to Macy's, I immediately go to the sale section, and if it's twenty percent to me, I'm like skeptical, so I think they aren't actually giving me a deal. But if you give me fifty or seventy five percent off like the last shirt in my size, that I'm gonna buy it.

Speaker 10

Yes, Well, this is the issue, right, These are the questions we're constantly discussing. At what point do the consumers think you're going to keep reducing your prices and wait and not purchase. You know, it's not holiday season yet. When holiday season comes around, people will be buying. What it is they're going to be buying. We're gonna find out. But you do have to ask yourself, how how many

cuts do you need? Is it better to keep cutting a little bit at a time, you know, sort of like the FED with interest rates, a quarter point at a time, a teaser, or is it better to just cut the price. But these price cuts that we're discussing today, they're permanent, They're not on sale. These are the new prices that you will be paying, so when you walk into these stores when it's on sale, it should be even lower.

Speaker 2

Well, that's interesting to Bailey's point earlier, does any of this do you expect M and A and where?

Speaker 10

Yeah, that's a great question. I think that if you're in a niche market, your product is niche or your messaging is niche, you likely get picked up an M and A. But otherwise no, I think it's more you know, cannibalization and you know, Darwinism with.

Speaker 2

The niche guys. Aren't the niche guys doing okay because for the fact that their niche or it just still depends.

Speaker 10

No, it depends because the niche brands typically don't sell high volume, and so their cost of goods is high and they can't manipulate their pricing as much as larger corporations can.

Speaker 4

Well, you mentioned target cutting prices in that bringing consumers through the door. We spoke with Brooks Southerland about a story on commercial real estate and pointing out that fast food chains are being able to kind of weather different trends from a return to office, whereas maybe a mom and pop shop can't handle that as well. With target cutting prices and drawing and consumers and seemingly more people going to stores like Walmart or a Costco or Sam's Club.

How does that impact some of these other either small businesses or even just less global retailers.

Speaker 10

I think it's tough out there, and I think it's going to get tougher. And unfortunately, where we stand right now, the economy is so uncertain because we don't know who the next president will be, and once we do know that,

people can start planning. This is probably the worst time typically in any election year, because there's so much uncertain and this election in particular, we have two candidates who are on complete opposite sides of the economic spectrum, and so we are in a wait and see holding pattern, and that makes everything a lot more difficult.

Speaker 2

You mentioned Target. What other companies do you think have been doing the price cutting and managing this environment?

Speaker 10

Well, certainly Ikia. I mean they not only cut their prices. You can go online and you can see the price before and the price now, so they're really speaking to consumers and showing them, you know, you no longer have to pay. I'll make these numbers up three hundred dollars for this lamp you can pay, you know, two twenty five and this is our permanent new price. So I think they're doing a great job in showing the consumers exactly what it is they're doing to help them and drive their own sales.

Speaker 4

Of course, about ten seconds, if we're shopping, should we be going to the stores now or waiting for some of those holiday sales.

Speaker 10

That's such a tough question. I mean, I try not to buy things at full price if I can help it, so, I, you know, confession.

Speaker 2

Usually wait for sales, but if you need something.

Speaker 10

Try to go to those stores that have already reduced their prices.

Speaker 2

Yeah, she sees me, she sees me, She gets me. All right, thanks, not really appreciate a Runnias at home managing partner at set Home LG Group joining us. There are you done, Bailey with your home furnishing? I mean, it's been a year.

Speaker 4

It's never it's never never ending. Well, because we got married, so we had to plan the wedding and then we're still as JT know is trying to address a leaky roof fireplace to the living room.

Speaker 2

Still, yeah, he's not helping. He already said that.

Speaker 1

This is the Bloomberg Intelligence podcast available on Apples, Spotify, and anywhere else you'll get your podcasts. Listen live each weekday, ten am to noon Eastern on Bloomberg dot Com, the iHeart Radio app tune In, and the Bloomberg Business app. You can also watch us live every weekday on YouTube and always on the Bloomberg terminal

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