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Other major news story just crossing the tape of breaking this morning. Donald Trump, the first former US president convicted of a felony, was sentenced by a New York judge Friday to no jail or probation for his hush money case. Joinings right now is June Grassol, Bloomberg's legal analyst.
Here, June. No surprises here for you, No.
Really, no surprises at all. I thought it would take much longer if Trump decided to speak.
So he did give a.
Little rambling speech, echoing things that he said over and over again, how this is a witch hunt, how it's not fair even talking though about the election. He got a few things in there. So, I mean, this is what the judge had said he was going to do. He was going to sentence him to an unconditional release. There was not going to be any kind of prison time,
no penalties, no fines, nothing. It's just the stigma of now being a convicted felon and in ten days being the first president to be sworn in as the President of the United States as a convicted felon. I think that's what he's been trying to avoid all along.
Well, Juna does say that Trump plans to appeal the verdict and seek to overturn his conviction through the appeals process. What would that look like. What is the likelihood of that outcome?
Well, so Trump has appealed just about every decision legal decision that has been handed down against him, So this is no surprise. He's already started to appeal some of the motions and some of the things the judge did.
So what happens is once the sentence is handed down, I have about thirty days to say whether or not they're going to appeal, and then they do their arguments in an appellate brief to the Appellate Division in this case, and then he can Probably he'll probably appeal whatever they say if it's not good for him, to the highest court in New York, which is the New York Court of Appeals, and most likely to the Supreme Court, because he's going to be arguing about these presidential immunity decisions
and whether they affected In other words, what happened here is he said after that presidential immunity decision came out, he said that Judge Mrchon shouldn't have allowed in some of the testimony from example, for Hope Picks, which had taken place in the White House, because that was done in the course of his presidential duties. Judge Marchon disagreed with that and also said that there was overwhelming evidence,
so that wasn't even needed for the jury. So that's going to be one, definitely one of his points of appeal.
What else is out there for the president? Like most people, I can't keep track, and I think it feels like most of them are rather resolved or dismissed or well.
When he takes office, nothing is going to happen to him at all for four years because they won't go after there's no prosecution of sitting presidents. The Georgia case still sort of hanging around in appellate courts.
It was the.
Prosecutor there was thrown out because of a relationship with another prosecutor on the case, So that's left that very tenuous.
That case is.
Still there, But I mean, really most he'll just have appeals, the appeals of this, and the classified document case goes forward without him.
Something else in front of the Supreme Court, that TikTok price for hundreds of millions of people out there, I think, care about this?
What do you expect this to play out?
You know, this is hard, and I'm about to try to listen to the oral arguments, so we'll try to see how the justices feel. It's very hard because in this case, the United States is claiming that this is a matter of national security, and with matters of national security, the justices usually leave it up to the executive branch when the executive branch has a lot of authority and
there's deference to the executive branch. But at the same time, you know, the First Amendment experts I've spoken to talk about this as a First Amendment violation, the violation of the First Amendment rights of the millions and millions of people who are on TikTok and who don't have any other way to express themselves exactly the way they do
on TikTok. So we'll see what happens. It's one thing is for sure, it's going to be a very fast decision because they're going to come down with it before the band goes into effect.
I know, president like Donald Trump has also spoken out about his view on this whole idea of the TikTok ban. How much of a sway does it even seem that he would be able to make toward this decision.
Well, he has been his views as on many things have been varying. On TikTok he was against it than for it, against it, now he is apparently for it. He submitted a brief to the Supreme Court as the upcoming president, the president elects saying that the court should delay the law going into effects so that he could come in and solve the problem. And it talked about him being a master deal maker and how he's the only one who can come in and solve this whole problem. I mean, how much that carries.
We have to see. All right, Judan, thank you so much. We appreciate it.
June Grosso, a legal analyst for Bloomberg, giving us the latest on the sentence handing down from the New York Court here in President Trump, as well as the oral arguments being heard right now in the US Supreme Court regarding TikTok and the ownership there.
So we'll keep in touch with June.
You're listening to the Bloomberg Intelligence Podcast. Catch the program live weekdays at ten am Eastern on Applecarplay and Android Auto with the Bloomberg Business App. You can also listen live on Amazon Alexa from our flagship New York station, Just say Alexa Play Bloomberg eleven thirty.
It is normal Linda sitting in for Alex deal on Paul Swinginger live here in our Bloomberg Interactive Brokers studio, streaming.
Live on YouTube as well.
Let me get to the economic data points we saw today, particularly the job zumbers. We can do that with Jeffrey Cleveland, chief economist for Peydon and Regal. Jeffrey, thank you so much for joining us. Jeffrey, I know you're based in Los Angeles. You know, terrible situation out there. I wonder if we could just get a couple of minutes from you. You're right on the ground there in Los Angeles. Uh, kind of what's the experience like, Well, it's I.
Mean, condolences to all the families who've lost property and loved ones and you know, big shout out to all the first responders. I think it's it's just amazing working through the night here to to try and keep things in check. I mean, this is an ongoing situation. We're still in the midst of it. You know. Fortunately, in my personal situation, we've been very fortunate, and it's great to see the community in Los Angeles, a lot of neighbors coming together and helping each other.
So I think that that's been you know, you know, one positive.
Aspect of this, of this whole affair, all right, Jeffrey, our thoughts and fairs are obviously with our good friends out there in Los Angeles, So you guys stay safe.
Jeffrey, we had a really really strong nonfoum payrolls a number here today.
What were your takeaways.
I mean, I think it's marvelous. I mean, all things considered. You know, I'm usually very up beat. It's kind of hard to be upbeat, you know, here in LA on a day like this, but you know, the job's data is excellent.
You know. I guess a few myths that have been debunked.
One was that, you know, Paul high rates, we're going to derail the economy.
It just really hasn't happened.
Average payroll growth in twenty twenty four, I guess when all things are said and done, looks like it'll be around one hundred and eighty six thousand monthly average pace, which is a little bit slower than twenty twenty three, but excellent job growth. It's keeping that unemployment rate just above four percent for the last seven months, really, which is really remarkable the stability we're seeing there. So I think this is a great jobs report all things considered.
If inflation continues to moderate, this is really the soft landing that we had been hoping for, and definitely the FED has been hoping for it. So it's all around great news actually on all fronts for me.
So, Jeffrey, this was obviously good news and when we think about the strength of the US economy, But of course there are some speculations about how this could affect the Fed's rate cut trajectory. Of course, you mentioned that there is still scope for rate cuts in twenty twenty five, but when what's the timeline being in your view.
I think the most important message for investors is that the FED is not trying to slow the economy or soften the labor market. I think the very content with where things are. As far as the labor market being a threat to the inflation outlook, I think those risks have diminished. So average hourly earnings back below four percent, So we're not in that situation where we were two years ago where people were worried about a wage price sort of spiral. So I don't think the Fed needs
to try to slow the labor market. They would like to stick the landing, they would like to get a soft landing, but I think they can be patient from here. I think for us that means waiting to see if inflation continues to moderate. We got a very favorable core PCEE reading for November, just you know, just before the end of the year. So if we get more readings like that to start twenty twenty five, I think that could be very good news. So I think they could wait,
be patient. No urgency to cut rates, but we do think they will cut rates over the course of the year. Right now, we're still penciled in at one cut per quarter, so about one hundred basis points, but that's really driven by inflation getting back to two percent at some point.
Yeah, and it looks like, you know, I'm just looking at the University of Michigan data and they have obviously some one year inflation outlook five to ten year inflation out looks. Both of those ticked up to about three point three percent, you know, much higher, well, I guess, noticeably higher than worth they were last month, and higher than maybe the consensus forecast there.
What do you think that data reflects.
I think that reflects sentiment, Paul. I mean, you do.
Every client that I talk to, colleagues and friends and family members, they're definitely worried that inflation will pick back up, whether you know that's something they're seeing in their day to day or it's just the fear maybe some economic policy policy shifts that are going to be enacted here that will push inflation back up. That's definitely power fear that you hear express. So maybe that's been showing up
in sentiment indicators. Looking at the end, you know, the actual data though for core PCE, we're pretty pretty optimistic, Paul.
We had that.
Point one percent month to month reading for November, and you know, when we run the numbers, it's possible core PC gets to two percent year on year by sometime in the third quarter of this year. Of twenty twenty five, which will be which will be fantastic news for everyone, for consumers especially, So I think that's maybe sentiment driving things more than actual inflation data that we're seeing.
Jeffrey quickly, what was the driving force behind the pickup in the December payrolls numbers?
Well, I mean, I think, you know, across the board, the surprise here is probably the government payrolls that being in there, leisure and hospitality. I think overall, just everyone's expecting that the higher interest rates we're going to lead to a cool down, a bit more notable slowdown, and we really, we really haven't seen that. The The three month moving average was one hundred and seventy k so even if you exclude the December reading, you still see pretty solid three month average.
So just a lot more.
Resilience overall in the pace of payrolls the last few months, and many people had expected.
Hie.
Jeffrey, thank you so much for We appreciate it. Jeffrey Cleveland, chief economist, paid in Narrigo. He is based in Los Angeles, so we wish him and all our good friends in Los Angeles god speed here as they deal with this these fires.
Here you're listening to the Bloomberg Intelligence podcast. Catch us live weekdays at ten am Eastern on Apple Coarclay, and Android Auto with the Bloomberg Business App. Listen on demand wherever you get your podcasts, or watch us live on YouTube.
The economic data point of the day, of course, was the.
Labor data payroll number coming out change non farm payroll came out in two hundred and fifty six thousand, and consentsus was one hundred and sixty five thousand, So a big beat in terms of the labor marketing receiving movement in the financial markets.
Old of that, let's break that number down a little bit.
We can do that with Kate Dushane, CEO of RGP. Kate, thanks so much for joining us here. Again, a big print, big beat on that headline print.
What did you take away?
Well?
I think that tells us that the labor market continues to be very strong. I think that's a good indication, although it will put a pause probably on interest rate cuts, but it does tell us that the market is stronger than we've all believed.
How are you thinking about it? In the mix of the outlook for how the FAG can be viewing rake cuts in twenty twenty five.
Well, I think it probably portends a pause in January and we'll see where we go. What we need to see is more movement in the labor market, not just new jobs, but movement that really tells us that projects are starting to have up and so many companies are facing technological change and disruption, and we need to see more transactional work come back into the marketplace, and that then will signal that really post election, the economic market is improving.
Kate, how about on the wage front here, we had average hourly earnings on a year of a year basis came in a positive three point nine percent, just a smidge below the four percent consensus.
What's the wage market look like.
Well, I think it's been strong, but it's i'd say cooling slightly. This is an interesting time of year because the quits rate is down, but that's to be expected given that so many companies are year end and they are paying bonuses in the first quarter of the new calendar year, so people tend to stay put a little bit to get their bonuses and then start moving around. We are cautiously optimistic that we're going to start seeing
more talent movement. It's been pretty stagnant the last twelve months as people have gotten more conservative in their thinking, both clients spending money and talent moving. But we're cautiously optimistic that that's opening up in the new calendar year post election, when economic activity may pick up with deregulation, tax cuts, etc.
What were the main drivers behind this big blowout report? We saw a big beat this morning. What was driving that?
Yeah, mostly it was in retail, hospitality, healthcare, and government. So you know, you have to look at where the activity is strongest, and it's not absolutely across the board. I think manufacturing was down as a matter of fact, So you know, when you look at a report like this, you've got to dig into the detail to say how does it impact particular segments of business.
We had news this week that's really important too, Global Wall Street JP Morgan announced they want everybody back in the office five days a week, and that follows on some other big tech companies like Amazon making similar announcements. Are we going to see some change here? I kind of felt like the status quo was a hybrid thing, but it still seems like some big companies want to get their people back full.
Time, right, So we work with some of the best brands in the world. We work with eighty eight percent of the Fortune five hundred, so we have a good pulse of what's happening in the workplace. And I would say absolutely the dominant trend is still a hybrid environment. So many highly skilled employees say they will not go back full time. So I think that while certain companies are laying down these mandates very hard to enforce them, very hard to keep high potentials who don't want to
work that way anymore. So clearly what we see across the board in our client base is a hybrid approach two to three days a week in the office for collaboration, learning together, and some flexibility, which is what high performing talent wants.
All right, Kate, thank you so much. We appreciate that.
Kate to Shane, CEO of our GP, I don't know. I kind of feel like we're seeing a little bit of a move and a pendulum back to more.
In office versus less definitely in office.
I don't know, but I mean, Kate again, she talks to all these Fortune five hundred companies. I think a lot of people I can still push back on that. We have to see that plays out.
You're listening to the Bloomberg Intelligence Podcast. Catch us live weekdays at ten am Eastern on Apple, Cocklay and Android Auto with the Bloomberg Business App. Listen on demand wherever you get your podcasts, or watch us live on YouTube.
All right, normal, Linda, and for Alex Steel here today, I'm Paul Sweeting. We're live on our Bloomberg Interactive Broker studio. We're streaming live on YouTube as well. Of course, the big news story of the week have been the terrible fires in Los Angeles and we've been trying to get some different angles on that all week. Will Wade joins this energy and climate reporter for Bloomberg News. Well, thanks
so much. I appreciate getting some time here. We want to talk to you about the Constellation deal as well in the energy space.
But first, anything to add on these LA fires.
I mean, the fires are just tragic, They're huge. We see that Cawfires just ranked the Palisades fire as the third most damaging in state history. To Eton one is right behind it is the fourth, and of course the worst was the twenty eighteen campfire that destroyed the entire city of Palisades. But these things are still burning, and you know, there's still one hundred and fifty thousand people that are under evacuation order, including some of my family.
Talk to us about that. Do you have some of your family in that part of the world.
Sure.
My aunt lives in North Pasadena. She was evacuated on Tuesday. She's doing fine, she's rattled, but I've been tracking the progress of the fire. It's kind of getting closer to her house. I really hope it does fine. It's actually a really nice house. Use it onto the Apple TV show Shrinking. Yeah, it's a really nice place. And then I heard from my mom yesterday. She said, Hey, remember that restaurant I took you to brunch last summer.
When you were visiting. Yeah, it burned down. That was up on North Lake Street. So it feels very personal to me.
Yep, more and more stories coming out.
Yeah.
I mean, when you think about a lot of these stories, some people didn't even have the opportunity to go back to their homes to grab items, especially as the evacuations have been in place. Have your family member spoken at all to that experience or what have you been hearing on the ground.
I know that my mom was telling me that her aunt left and my aunt left in such a hurry. She left some important medication behind and they were able to go back and get that, and neighborhood was able to get in.
But it's unclear when they're going to be able to go back.
They're not very contained right now. Palisades fire is still only like eight percent contained, and they eaten one that's the one in Pacity is only three percent contained.
Those are not big numbers.
Yeah, absolutely, all right, Well, hopefully some good news coming out of that part of the world soon. Let's talk about in your world of reporting. Their Constellation Energy surged after agreed to acquire closely held Calpine Core before sixteen point four billion to create the largest fleet of US power stations.
Talk to us about this deal. What's going on here?
So Constellation already is notable. They have the biggest fleet of nuclear power plants, and their shares have gone up like more than one hundred percent in the past year because like the last year, all we've seen in electricity is more and more demand for electricity from data centers and artificial intelligence and electric vehicles and people shifting their homes to electric heating and gas heating, and basically anyone who's got electricity to sell isn't a really strong position.
So Constellation went out and bought Calpine, which is the biggest gas provider. They've got the biggest fleet of gas power plants, and so now they're going to have together the biggest power plant fleet.
In the entire United States. It's going to be enormous.
And it comes to time when power demand is just going up in ways that we haven't seen in decades, and the utilities weren't really ready for this that we didn't see the AI boom coming a year ago. And so now if you have a power plant, you're in a great place, and it takes years to build moolence.
Is this transaction setting the tone for iminate activity in the energy space? More broadly, what's the outlook for the return of more deals in twenty twenty five.
We could see more. I'm hearing a lot of people talking about interest in energy transactions. And it used to be one of the sleepiest corners of the of the M and A space. People thought, you know, power plants were just like super boring assets.
They just make power and sell power.
And utilities have reliable dividends that your grandmothers always love. But the share prices for so many of these companies have just surged in the past year. So I mean it's given them money to go shopping.
Well, let's step back in your space, just the greater energy space here.
Where does nuclear fit in here?
We've had some entrepreneurs come in here and say, hey, we've got some new technology. You tiny little nuclear plan, I'll put it next to a big, you know, data center, and we're all, it's a good way, it's a good option.
It talk to us about that type of stuff.
Okay, So on paper, that sounds like the perfect combination. These small modular reactors can go next to the data centers. The reactors run around the clock, the data centers run around the clock.
It makes a lot of sense.
The thing to keep in mind is the time frame, because we're not going to see any of these.
New reactors for years, maybe.
A couple by the end of the decade, most likely a twenty thirties thing. But these are just very very very slow moving projects. And the data center companies they want as much power as they can get, like yesterday, they need it now.
Yep. All right, So maybe we're going to see a lot of gas.
Yes, yeah, I think you're right, and I think we've got some of that in this country.
Will wait.
Thanks so much for joining us. We'll wait.
Energy and Climate reporter for Bloomberg News joining us via zoom And we appreciate getting sharing some of his family experiences that some of his family members are having out there in Los Angeles as those folks continue to deal with a very very difficult situation. And we heard from Rob Carolin Bloomberg Meteorologists earlier in the hour a couple of days here of some reduced wins maybe throughout the weekend,
and that's a would be a big help. But then unfortunately, the forecast calls for those winds to pick up next week, so maybe the firefighters can get a better handle on some of these fires over the next several days.
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