Troubling Signs Lurk Within Shocking Job Gains: LaSalle CEO

at Bloomberg dot com. Fascinating numbers that came out today absolutely blew away any and all projections via US economists and frankly raised a lot of questions given the anecdotal data that we keep getting, Tom, what did you make of this information? I think a lot of it's the PPP money. I think, if if I read the data correctly, the report that a lot of the people coming back, or a decent percentage were furlog were the furloged folks,

which means, and I listened, beggars can't be choosers. We're adding people to work who weren't working. But these aren't newly created jobs. They're old jobs bringing people back, which is a positive sign, and to look at it any other way as crazy, and we should be very optimistic from this number so interesting, Tom, it's um I think no matter either. Are some nuances in this number time, but it's just signal to you kind of at the very least setting a bottom for the employment picture. I'm

not necessarily sure about that. I think for the short term, meaning sixty days, it's probably abottom. But what we've got to see is what happens in the end of the third quarter, in early fourth quarter, if the airline travel doesn't pick up, in the airlines lay people off, and hotels UH don't continue to grow. If if we do get another spike from COVID, and what happens in that regard um to working in the in the restaurant service space, I think we could have another big, big hit, Tom.

I think it's fascinating to get your view. I know you've been more optimistic than a lot of economists have over the past months and years when we've had you on and always added really good perspective. Right now, you sound less optimistic than a lot of people are when they take a look at these numbers. What are you seeing on the ground that's making you less optimistic? So what's happened in a in a in a true recession which I believe we're in is companies stop hiring in volume.

They have key hires they need to make, and they may get a new project and they bring people on, but there isn't growth for few there is. They are isn't hiring for future growth because they believe they're gonna need it. And that belief is what's been fueling this bull market for ten years, is that companies keep thinking it's going to get stronger and better, and it has been. And now what we've seen, uh is companies are not hiring in volume. We're not seeing sales hiring, which is

a really big indicator. When companies are building up their salesforce, it means they're anticipating that they'll be more revenue growth, and that leads to other areas of the business not seeing that in volume. A few hires here and there, but again not in volume, and that gives me some concern.

And then temporary staffing, which we have a large business practice in that area, is usually a leading indicator, and it's not It's not as terrible as the search business, but it definitely isn't starting to grow at the rapid volume that we've seen over the past ten and really past twenty years, so I'm a little bit apprehensive. And then the liquidity issue is what's going to happen after the p PP money rolls off and companies don't have

to keep their employees anymore. And if revenues aren't there, whether it's due to COVID, whether it's due to social unrest, is are we going to have a situation where companies have there's more bankruptcies? Tom, This is an incredibly important conversation. Frankly, what you are telling me finally is giving me some light. I've had so many questions this morning. This is one of the most confusing data dumps I have ever seen

in my life. And even with the p PP taken into account, as Matt Bosler of Bloomberg News was just talking about, that still would only bring not only I mean it's still catastrophic, but it would bring the unemployment rate up to about six still well below consensus. So is it that the market is better than people expected, but not as necessarily good as the headline numbers here imply, or is it closer to what people had expected. We just aren't seeing that level of actual layoffs just yet.

Well we've seen is is that the service level can only get hit so hard. It's that's the difference between restaurants and hospitality versus white collar. Is if the restaurants lay everybody off, which is what essentially has happened, there is no more cutting. If you have a company, a Fortune five company that's done layoffs like a bowling or who are an airline or whomever else, they're not laying off the entire company. And that's what the restaurants have

done for the most part. And so what we see now is there there really isn't that much more room to go on the service side on the hospitality side. So now it is does part two of the real white collar layoffs we've had them, but we haven't had If you eliminated all the service jobs and you just had the white collar layoffs, it wouldn't be anywhere nearly as at a stropic. We'd probably be sitting at seven and a half percent unemployment and it wouldn't be that bad. So, Tom,

do you expect that? Is that something that you kind of survey some of the companies that you're in touch with, you expect kind of more white collar office level type of layoffs across the economy coming up. Well, that'll be the really interesting thing. And we have to see. I mean to me, that's the difference between the V curve versus the you or the L curve of of does

things do things bounce back? Now? The one opportunistic or or optimistic both probably is the strength of the stock market is seeing that the market is saying we're looking at companies from the long term. We're not looking at a month over month or even in the quarter that we're saying who's the strong company and will they be strong at the end of this year in the early part of next year. And that lends me to believe that companies are going to have the liquidity to be

able to hire people. So there is optimism on that. But I think all of the BLS numbers until we get into the July reports the first week in August are a little bit of smoke and mirrors to really see how things level off. Stands the p P P alright, So looking forward, there is a question about whether this report, given how much better than expected it was, whether it reduces the pressure on Congress to pass additional fiscal and and and stimulus, whether it takes the pressure off the

Federal Reserve to keep its bazooka wide open. I'm totally conflating different metaphors there. I'm just wondering, though, from your perspective, how worried you are about that. I think that we should not do any more stimulus at the time being. I think I think the government uh overshot quite frankly, now, I'm not I'm not being critical of it from the standpoint of in a in a catastrophe, you have to do things at the moment, and it's easy to have hindsight.

But writing the check to everybody who makes under seventy five thousand employed or unemployed really wasn't necessary. And what we saw was that comping people wanted to have jobs

and companies needed to have jobs. And the real challenge we're gonna face in Part two or Part three, however you look at it, is the federal stimulus on the unemployment and people who are making more money being unemployed in these service jobs, and when they go back to work, that's where the dynamics going to be felt come July. All right, So, Tom, we've had differing states have different

kind of schedules for reopening their economies. Are we seeing any regional impact unemployment data that might be reflect that.

You know what, I'd be frank with you, I haven't had a chance to study that that much, but I do think that that from what who I've been talking to c e O s and finance and HR leaders in the in the southern below the Mason Dixon line, that it really is two different economies, and we're seeing that those those areas, geographically speaking, are much more prone to be proactive um and optimistic versus versus the northern

the Northern States. Just real quick here, Tom Gimble, before we let you go, is there any color sector that you are most concerned about from here that you expect would suffer the first or the next round of layoffs. Here's the really interesting thing for this recession versus the last two where I was running a business in OH one and O eight No. Nine, is this isn't sector focused.

It's company focused across all sectors. So you could have an airline that actually ends up being okay and and the majority of others that are that are in the toilet, and that could be for every single company. I'm seeing it in insurance and technology and manufacturing that that many companies aren't doing great, but there's a few outliers that

really are doing well. So but if I had to put my finger on it, I would say that that a lot of technology based companies, I think you're gonna see if things don't pick up, are gonna be laying people off because their profits are lagging and they don't have the A lot of them don't have the funding to go out and just hire people. And that's a real interesting dynamic, the nonprofitable companies that exist in the tech space. Tom, thanks so much for joining us on

this historic jobs Friday. Tom Gimbal, founder and CEO of LaSalle Network based in Chicago, breaking down those numbers. Joining us now is someone with incredible history just surveying the ground and the research in every aspect of the economy. Danielle de Martino Booth, chief executive officer and chief strategistic Quill Intelligence, also a Bloomberg opinion columnist who spent years of the Dallas Federal Reserve as an adviser there. She

is joining us from Dallas. Danielle, as you pass into the numbers that we got today showing that the jobless rate actually declined even though it had been expected, to increase. What's your main takeaway about the strength of the U. S. Economy? You know, my biggest takeaway is that if you look at the continuing claims number and you compare that to the size of the workforce, you get to thirteen point one percent, and so this is bizarrely so really, I

mean truly. I was one of the people who said, typo, uh, it's kind of reflective of where the U. S. Economy is right now with thirteen point one percent of the population collecting unemployment benefits at the moment um. My other takeaway was that the BLS is error, UH is equivalent to what the unemployment rate was a few months ago that they're they're saying possibly three percent distortion in the unemployment rate. I think that's where we were back in February.

So it's just this is really incredible data to see. I think you have to keep your focus on the weeds right now, look at what companies are doing, not what the data are saying, because it's obviously completely thrown off by many different factors. And that's what I try

and do. I try and pay attention to what individual companies are doing around the country on a daily basis, So, daniel I mean, as President Trump was just saying in the Rose Garden, he from his first spective, he believes that the worst is over, and then you know America is on its way back. Does a data point like this, you know, kind of confirm that or again, are you going to step back and maybe look at a lot

more data at the more granular level. I'm gonna keep focusing on granularity at Bloomberg put out a great report this week that showed that the next wave of higher income paying jobs could be up to six million UM.

And you know, I've just been following the past few days and whether you're talking about a K Steel or Auto Nation or UM Stitch Fixed, which was a Unicorn in San Francisco laying off of its workforce, Carpenter Technology in Philadelphia of its workforce UM and another you know, Perella Weinberg seven percent tied to deal making Lazy Boy ten percent of its workforce, UM, Saber, the software technology company for for for the global travel industry eight hundred

in additions to the four hundred and committed voluntary early retirements. I'm talking about the last four day hours. Yeah, Danielle, So if you're focused on the granularity, I'm wondering what you're seeing on the ground in the daily and weekly statistics that we're getting, and I'm wondering if you could compare that with the headline figure from the Job's report. In other words, you know, people are saying it's as hypo,

it's an error, they questioned the data. But are there obvious discrepancies or is this just very explainable classification issues with the p p P program and other issues that will come to the four over time. But the bottom line takeaway here is that the labor market isn't as bad as many people expected. Well, I think that that

is is partially mathematical. We are going to have mathematically, we are going to have a tremendous uh improvement in the numbers in going forward, regardless of what area of the economy you're you're talking about, because we have to come off the bottom. We can't stay on the bottom and reopen at the same time their diametor really opposed. We've seen the same phenomena in Italy. We've seen a tremendous decline in their unemployment rate, for example. So we're

going to have this happen. But if you look at Google trends on unemployment insurance searches, that is completely flatlined, meaning it's no longer improving. If you look at people's intentions. Fresh data out of Cox Automotive this morning, people are saying that they're going to delay a car purchase for the first time since early March. It's it's popped right

back up to the hive. So we are reopening. But my question is going to be, once we get past the less bad, what is the follow through going to look like? And I think that that is a great unknown. But in real time data, we're starting to see weakness re emerge despite the reopening of the of the economy. So where do you think that's going to leave Congress, Danielle, I mean, we do have uh, some more fiscal stimulus kind of winding its way through Congress. Doesn't seem to

be a lot of uh. I guess, you know, impetus to get this thing done quick. Where do you think the next step is going to be from Congress in terms of stimulus? Well, you know there's the irony, right, You've got potential legislation being proposed to have a job credit paid to pay people to come back into the workforce because so many are collecting more with this additional six dollars a week. Small business owners that have reopened are like, well, I can't get my employees back by

the same token. What kind of extra incentive do we have now to pass this legislation? Now that the president has informed the country that it's not a V shaped recovery but a rocket ship, So why do you go back to the to the drawing board and say that we need to to put more stimulus into this economy if it's fully recovered. So going forward, what are you watching in order to determine how much some of the

labor market is declining? I guess I'm I come up with speechless just because this has been such a fast moving labor market and economic recession that it's hard to pinpoint the numbers, and the data has been all over the place. I mean, some people could say that there is discrepancy with the state and local claims in part because of processing issues there, So perhaps this is a

more comprehensive number. What are you looking for to confirm your view that, yes, the labor market is weak, and yes there was a bit of an improvement, but it appears to be plateau ng, so I'm actually following. I'm trying to be as stringent as I possibly can with data.

I'm looking for permanence. And I actually checked in with Challenger, Gray and Christmas yesterday just to confirm that what they report, which has seems so really low compared to some of the large numbers we're seeing, but they did confirm that they only report permanent layoffs. So we're at one point four million or so. Uh, since this whole thing has started, the highest level in history is almost two million. It looks like we'll get there by July or so. So

I'm going to continue to watch things like bankruptcy filings. Uh, these are companies that are going away and not coming back. I'm going to continue to watch permanent layoffs. I'm going to stay in the weed and and continue to run my Twitter polls and asking people what they're actually doing, if they're if they're truly I am ready to go back and spend like I used to spend, or if

this reticence remains. So, I think the weeds are going to be the right place to be because it's so difficult to follow data when everything every economics textbook in the world tells you that the unemployment rate is the most lagging of all economic indicators, and yet it lad coming right out of the gate because we shut the economy down, So the old rules don't apply if unemployment

is leading us into recession. So Danielle, as you look at your GDP model, and you're obviously, uh, employment is a big, big factor, and it does the data we got today materially change kind of your outlook for how the rest of this year and into next year is going to unfold in terms of kind of the economic growth. Well, I mean, at this point you could you could take a guess. I mean, there's no methodology today because my

mess atology has been throwing out the window. But if I was just throw spaghetti on the wall and see if it's six, I would say maybe the second quarter is not going to be as bad as some of the most dire predictions out there. If you look at

the spectrum of Bloomberg consensus estimates UM. But that by that same token again, if you're seeing reticence and if you're seeing higher income paying job growth come down UM, then you're going to see a more sclerotics third and fourth quarter growth than what's being anticipated based on the original kind of we're gonna see a U shaped recovery.

So one of the things I'm following the most closely I suggest you do as well, is every Thursday in the Bloomberg Consumer Comfort data, I've been following those who make seventy dollars a year their confidence. Unlike overall, the consumer comfort headline has yet to come back. It's continued to pick down week after week, and that would indeed reflect whether or not worth seeing hire income paying job

job losses. Danielle, Just to wrap this all up, I know you can follow the consumer credit space very carefully, and one thing that I found, uh surprisingly positive is the lack of the increase in defaults and delinquencies that many people had expected. And one of the reasons why is because people said the enhancement employment benefits, the checks that everyone got mailed that who earned a less than

eventy five tho dollars helped pat out the resources. How much do you think that has been a cushion against losses in consumer credit versus actual strength and rehiring that we saw hinted at with this job's report. Oh look, I'm going to use the President's favorite word here. I think it's been tremendous. Um. Look, we we have seen the We've seen an arresting in subprime auto delinquency because again one in five people receiving an employment benefits are

making double what they made before. We've seen obviously the forbearance on mortgages, but even though we've still got nearly nine percent of all mortgages in forbearance, you haven't seen that play out because they put a hold on people's on that being reflected in people's credit reports. We haven't seen. We haven't seen evictions go up. We haven't seen you know,

renters are not in major distress. Again, this stimulus has been extremely powerful for the lowest income earners in America, more than two thirds of whom are bringing in more than they did prior to this. Daniel thanks so much for joining us. I really appreciate your thoughts and comments. Danielle di Martino Booth CEO and chief strategist for Quill Intelligence. Markets are ripping on the back of that job's number. Let's see where the real action is. We welcome Bluebrick

Stocks editor Dave Wilson as well as Matt Bosler. He's a Bloomberg fed reporter. We'll get his thoughts on these jobs and numbers. Dave, what are you looking at right here? Really? I mean, if you want to understand what's going on today here, here's one way you can frame it. Best performing of the eleven main industry groups in the SMP

five hundred by far is energy. Of course, you're talking about an economically sensitive sector there, and so you know, if oil prices are going up, you figured it's not great for the likes of airlines and cruise lines and you know other companies that you know that they use fuels, they are gonna be facing higher costs down the line. Forget that. I mean you look, you see Americans shares up twenty two and a half percent after rising forty

one percent yesterday. You see Carnival in Norwegian among the best performers, Royal Caribbean too, So those are your three cruise line stocks in the s and P five up at least thirteen and a half percent. So you know, this is really, you know, a market where given what we saw on the jobs front, people are figuring the economies coming around that people are gonna want to spend, that they're gonna take the plane trips and the cruises down the line that they have been putting off because

of the coronavirus. So put it all together, I mean, it's it's a market that's showing real straight too. And let's just give some perspective on what's driving this. The expectation was for seven and a half million jobs to be lost in this May non farm payrolls report. Instead there was a two point five million jobs gain. And I want to dig into what we actually were seeing. Matt, come on in here. Some people saying, how did Wall

Street economists get this so wrong? Based on the anecdotal evidence coming out of states, coming out of federal official data sources. Yeah, so there are definitely some important caveats to note with this report, some of which the BLS actually did note in the text of the release they

put out. I think the biggest one is that, um, there might have been a classification issue wherein um, you know, uh, some people who were should have been classified as unemployed and contemporary layoff we're actually classified as employed but absent

from work for various reasons. And so the BLS says that the unemployment rate actually would have been about three points higher than reported if those people have been classified correctly, and so that would have, you know, manifested in an increase in the unemployment rate in May to something like sixteen point three percent. So that's um, you know, definitely an increase, but still well below the media and estimate

in our survey. So um, you know, definitely a better than expected report none the less, although maybe not quite as good as as that headline number indicates. Matt, how do you think the US Federal Reserve is gonna look at this number? So? I think the said for the moment is pretty resigned to um, you know, a long and slow recovery here, and so this doesn't really bring

interest rates into play obviously. But one interesting thing to note about the Fed is that they're actually going to be putting out presumably forecast for the unemployment rate for the first time since before this pandemic began next Wednesday when they announced their um policy decisions. So we're going to get the first look at how they're kind of

looking at the labor market situation going forward. So far, in public comments, they've been pretty vague and talking about just all of the uncertainty, So it'll be interesting to see what numbers they actually finally do put down to paper. Here, all I can say, Matt, is that somebody cutting the lawn behind you. That's me, that's you. But it's actually it actually adds to the whole moment of time, people getting back to work and getting things back up into order.

I'm wondering, you know, just from your perspective, Dave, whether what we saw out of this job's report confirms the optimism that the market has been expressing. In other words, we're seeing the narrative shift from markets are divorced from reality to markets got it right and economists got it wrong. Is that correct? Well, I mean you'd be hesitant to do it off just you know, a couple of sets of data here. I mean that said, you have to remember that the stock market is always forward looking. I

mean that's the idea. You can't buy last quarters profits, you can only buy next quarters and the quarter after that. And the focus has been one uh in terms of perhaps when people are expecting earnis to rebound. Certainly shows up in the estimates for SMP five hundred profit that we've compiled from analysts. You know, you don't start to see renewed growth until next year. That said, uh, people are anticipating that you're going to get some kind of

a recovery in the second half. And you know, if maybe things aren't so bad this quarter and the recovery comes sooner or stronger than people are anticipating, you know, you put it all together. In the very least, you can understand why investors have taken the position they have, even in the face of all the economic data they had seen before the Job's report. Hey, Matt, do you think this job's number brings the V shaped recovery discussion

back on the table. You know, that's a really interesting question. One of the things I have been thinking about this morning is one thing we did see was that the unemployment rate for white Americans fell, but the unemployment rate for Black Americans actually still rose, and so it's kind

of widening that gap. And you know, one of the things we've been talking about in terms of the V shape recovery and whether that's going to be possible is the response from Congress here, and so so far it's it's kind of looked like Congress is really dragging their feet on the next um phase of some sort of potential stimulus or income support and I just wonder if you know, given all the unrests were seeing, if those kinds of numbers, those disparities that are being reinforced in

this report, even though it was better than expected, might provide some you know, additional impetus for that kind of congressional response. And if that's the case, maybe it does

perhaps raise the odds of quicker snap back. But I think absent that sort of response from Congress, we're still looking at a situation where, um, it's going to be hard to bring these numbers down quickly because even though you've got people reopening, people going back to work, there's still that crucial question of consumer psychology, um, and how long that's going to take a toll on some of these sectors like leisure and hospitality, where people you know,

may not be willing to go out and and spend at restaurants so quickly. Given these lingering concerns we're going to be having about the virus going forward. We're speaking with Matt Bosler, who covers the FED for us here at Bloomberg, as well as Dave Wilson, Bloomberg Stocks editor, and as we speak, markets ripping higher on the heels of that way better than expected employment report. The expectation we're seven and a half million jobs lost. Instead there

were two and a half million jobs that gained. Although we are grappling to understand the classifications underneath this. Bank stocks soaring or looking at the SMP up two point two percent three thousand one and eighty one points means while the Nasdaq is up by one point six percent. Again, that rotation is into the cyclicals, not necessarily the quote

havens which have been big tech. Matt, I want to dig a little bit deeper here in terms of how long lasting this optimism can possibly be in the reclassification of some of the employers who allowed employees to stay on the payroll because of the p p P loans, how long do we have for that? How much can we really depend on that to be the reality for

the longer term and cushion any further job cuts going forward. Yes, so we have a story out on the terminal this morning about um, you know, looking at employment and uh sort of the bailout package that was passed in March.

It's important to keep in mind that, you know, those p p P loans to cover payrolls were really only for small businesses, which account for forty some percent of uh, you know, overall employment in this country, whereas um, you know, more than half of employment is in large companies that did not receive any sort of grants or payroll support to keep employees on the payroll. And I think what we're seeing a lot of those larger companies is that

they are announcing these big layoffs. And even some of the companies that took money directly from treasury, like the airlines, with employment strings attached, those strings are only attached until September, and then some of those have announced that they're planning

to do layoffs after that as well. And so um, this is kind of a tricky situation where we we may have uh, you know, some some issues with cascading job losses that aren't necessarily showing up right away in these numbers, and we still, unfortunately have to wait for those to come over the coming months. And so again, that really just underscores, um the need for some sort of game plan here and coordination to to prevent that

from happening. And so um, the other thing that people are looking at is these weekly jobless claims data that we're getting. We saw yesterday and the latest report that you know, another one point nine million people filed for initial claim aimes even this far into this at the end of May, and so those numbers are just so huge, um, and they don't look like they're really going down anytime soon. That's going to keep overall unemployment high ostensibly for the

foreseeable future. Here, Dave Wilson, you know, as I think, as I look at this market, another two percent move higher here, and that's in the face of you know, really ugly earnings revisions on the downside, here are we starting to get some evaluation concerns coming off a Wall Street or strategist saying, boy, this market from evaluation standpoint

is getting ahead of itself. Well, there are certainly a number of strategies, you know, looking at things like uh forward price earnings ratios where you're you're you're looking at projected profit rather than historical learnings and saying, look, I mean you're you're back to where you were, you know,

near the highs and two thousands. So that becomes an issue for some investors anyway, I mean, others kind of justified, you know, looking at the potential for a rebound here you know, in earnings that would kind of bring down the ratio, and that's you know, a potential going forward.

I mean, analysts estimates have kind of figured in the worst at this point, and if what we're seeing on the economic front kind of carries over in terms of companies results, then maybe they have to go back and kind of redo the numbers there in terms of what they're anticipating on earnings. So I me, you know, the concerns they're sure there are, uh, is it possible that those concerns maybe you know, mitigated by what we're seeing on the economic front. I mean, that's looking like a

possibility as well. Let's talk about the bank stocks. They're ripping higher. I'm looking at S and P sub index of financials. There are more than four percent today and it's the biggest one day gain, uh since April, since early April. I'm trying to understand if this is just a yield curve bat with the two tens spread at the highest since two thousand and eight teen, seeing a similar kind of widening in the five thirties spread, Is

that really what this is? Or is it also optimism that perhaps there will not be necessarily consumer defaults delinquencies and business will actually pick up. One kind of gets

you to the other to some extent. I mean, if you think about it, you know, the idea that what we're seeing in the bond market is a reflection of what the jobs numbers are suggesting about the economy, and if indeed that holds up and this is not just some one month wonder, then you know, consumers may well be in a better position than they were before in terms of being able to keep up payments, in terms

of being willing to spend more. And as you know, all kinds of businesses open up as a results of the easing of the coronavirus pandemic. I mean there's a potential for more business down the line coming out of that. So you know, it's kind of a both and as opposed to when either or in terms of you know, what's being reflected in the financial stocks at this point, and Mattic just wondering, you know, it's again it's better

than expected job number. We're gonna have President Trump and moments doing a victory lap by well deserved victory lap for this number here, followed up by Larry Cuddlo with John Farrow, What does that mean for the folks in Congress, is that reduced the odds of getting this next round of stimulus, even though the needs still may very well

be there. As you listen to Governor Cuomo talk about the need for stimulus at the state and local level, you know, this is really just a multi trillion dollar question, I think, right because, um, like you said, you know, there's some cross currents here, we're getting some mixed signals, and I think one of the interesting things about what we're seeing in the economy and the stock market is that, um, you know, we've kind of been really holding out hope

since the beginning of this pandemic that um, you know, things would turn out okay and maybe better than expected. There's so much uncertainty right now, um, and we don't really know much about you know, the nature of the virus itself. Um, And so that kind of you know, leaves us to be able to hold out for hope.

You know. It's I just remember back to mid March when initially the lockdowns were going to be two weeks, and then um, they were extended another two weeks after that, and we just kind of kept extending things every two weeks and now We're in a situation where a lot of us are, you know, maybe going back to eat at a restaurant for the first time in several months, and so that makes us feel good and you know, gives us some optimism. But um, we we definitely have

some key milestones or flag posts I think coming up here. Um, the the next big one for the economy is um these extended or expanded unemployment insurance benefits that are set to expire at the end of July. So that's going to be a big um, you know, potential flashpoint for for Congress to debate and keep an eye on. That will determine how things go going forward. And Matt, thanks so much for joining us. We really appreciate your thoughts.

Matt Bostler, Bloomberg Fed reporter, also Bloomberg Stocks editor Dave Wilson, thanks so much for your color here on this very strong job to report and very strong equity market. Thanks for listening to the Bloomberg pen L podcast. You can subscribe and listen to interviews at Apple Podcasts or whatever podcast platform you prefer. I'm Paul Sweeney, I'm on Twitter at p t Sweeney. I'm Lisa Bramwoyits. I'm on Twitter at Lisa Bramwoits one before the podcast, you can always

catch us worldwide. I'm Bloomberg Radio