The Realignment of Global Dollar Policy Will Boost Gold

is getting more precious by the day. Let's bring in Everett Moment precious metal specialists with Gainesville Coins. Let's begin, though, with a traditional special metal, and that would be gold. Everett, we saw it rise plenty, even though you know it wasn't quite obvious what it was rising on. What are the risks out there that people are are using golds to hedge for. Well, thanks for having me on UM. As we've seen, volatility has been essential part of the

gold trade. Recently, I think the return of risk on sentiment has robbed gold of some of its appeal, and in the short run we should expect UM some more volatility with in or trading volumes. This week with the Thanksgiving holiday. But once the dust settles on the vaccine news and this protracted election transition, I believe that the attention of the gold market will return back to the fundamentals, and that mainly means the FED, UM and other central banks.

In fact, we've seen that the ECB has come out and reiterated its commitment to supporting markets. UM. Beijing just recently sold his first negative yielding bonds, and this is about the most doublish that the FED Federal Reserve has been in a generation. All of that leads me to believe that currencies are going to take a hit going forward. UM. It seems like a pretty reasonable expectation that the dollar will slump a bit heading into next year and beyond,

and that's rather positive for commodities as a whole. Another development that we all know has been a rather strange year for markets, there's no denying that, and one aspect of that is that the gold market has really shrugged off any sasonality. UM, any of the normal seasonal flows. I've really been ignored UM. And as I said, I think as the news calms down a bit in the coming weeks, that we will actually see seasonality reassert itself.

So that means the traditional wedding season in India and the fact that in a few weeks we have the Chinese lunar New Year coming up. All of that signals that we're going to see a resurgence in physical demand for gold coming from the East. So it's interesting. Uh Ever, just looking at gold here, spot called up about year today, but it feels kind of range bound here. You know, we is there a call here where gold gets to

back up to two thousand dollars announced? Absolutely, I think that it's the gold bowls will have to be patient for that. Um. There is a lot of noise and a lot of stuff obviously going on over these next few weeks. But um, you know, when you look at some of the sales numbers from like the United States Mint, there are prong one million hounces of total gold sales for the calendar year. That's already about five times higher

than we saw for all of two thousand nineteen. So from a cyclical perspective, I believe we're in the early innings of another bull market for commodities generally. And uh, if gold, you know, has maybe lost some of its safe Hagan appeal, I would point to its role as a bet against the dollar, or really a hedge against

that potential paradigm shift in the dollars status. We've seen this continued trend where economic power and trade supremacy is tilting more towards China in the East than it really ever has. And what you find is that in that region of the world, those countries are rather united in finding a more neutral reserve asset as a central part

of monetary policy. That could be really anything other than the hegemonic US dollar, but in this case it's typically gold, and that does have profound implications for the next twenty

to five years of economic history. The last time we saw a meaningful realignment of what you might call global dollar policy was more than thirty five years ago with the Planet Accord, and I'm not alone in thinking that some similar adjustment of that arrangement, or a reset, if you will, is going to be necessary in the coming decades.

Based upon the current macro trends that we're seeing, it's a fairly reasonable assumption that whatever that realignment looks like with respect to the dollar um it's likely to be rather positive for gold. So to answer your question, you know, gold really is uh, behaving as a hedge against any sort of currency weakness, the dollar included. So who are these days considers bitcoin a Persson metal. Well, as you said at the top, it's it's getting more precious by

the day, isn't it. Um. It's not entirely surprising to me to see bitpoint bitcoin getting a lot more attention and a lot more hype now for many of the same reasons I just described with gold. Um. There is sort of a generational or cyclical shift going on in monetary policy, and bitcoin offers some alternative to the standard

dollar as a global reserve currency. Now, I don't mean to suggest that it will popp all the dollar uh in the next few months here, or even maybe in the next two or three years, but it really does deserve the attention it's getting because we're in uncharted territory as far as central bank policy goes. So I think bitcoin will continue to get attention, it will continue to absorb some of these alternate dollar or alternate currency bets

that investors are making. Hey, every thirty seconds here spots silver. I see is up thirty two year to date. That kind of gets lost in some of the discussions here what's the call on silver here? Right? Silver has maintained some positive momentum. Um. It benefits from the fact that it is partly an industrial metal. So as we've seen with copper rallying, uh, silver has held up a little bit better than gold. The main thing I'm launching with

silver has been some instability in Latin America. UM. I think Peru is on its third president in the Spain of about a week. UM. So many of the major silver producing countries in Latin America seeing some political instabilities from unrest that could affect the silver supply and drive prices higher going forward. Ever, thank you so much for joining us. We always appreciate chatting with you, getting your thoughts on all things on the precious metal side of

the business. Everett Millman, precious Metal Specialists for Gainesville Coins, based in Gainesville, Florida. Well, it is time to bring in bankers the world. Bill rose to talk to us a little bit about what exactly is happening virtually this year, and given that we're just off the G twenty, we're better at to start than at the G twenty. Bill, what were the conversations that sort of struck you that we're taking place at the G twenty this year of

all years. Well versall, Ronnie, it's very good to be with you and Paul again. This meeting was unusual in the sense that um it was the first one chaired by an hour member of the of the Group of twenty. Saudi Arabian reod obviously was done virtually and the whole idea he was to concentrate on on COVID uh pandemic UH and the fallout on the world economy, because the first one of these was held by George Bush Jr. At the time of the the Great economic Recession to

try and see what the economic response could be. So what was covered here was basically, UH, the economy UH. They got into climate change UH. And obviously what could be done about speeding of vaccines and making sure they were equally distributed around the world. UH, And the whole question of world trade given how the economy of the world is going. But there were no Pacific new UH,

let's say initiatives put forward here. Bill, what's the role of China in kind of the global discussion these days as relates to the G twenty and other forms. I am very important question, Paul, because the only economy UH member in the sense of membership in the Group of twenty who has an economy that's going to grow as China.

All of the others, including the United States and Europe, will be a negative GDP for this year and China will show a growth rate of two and as the world's second largest economy and the only G twenty country that's growing um UH. It is very very important and what they do there is very very important. And one of the issues is that China is not a member of the Paris Club where you restructure official debt um. They would only agree to be an observer UH there.

And there's a lot of questions about the transparency of their loans to the emerging markets which have been so hard hit by covid UH. The estimate of the Keel Institute is UH China has something over five hundred billion five hundred thirty billion aboutstanding loans the places like Africa, Southeast Asia, parts of Latin America, and they haven't been willing to enter the longer term discussions on debt relief.

They did go along with the debt relief program of the that was put forward at the annual meetings the I m F World Bank, which were extended for six more months after the original year, but people like David Malpas and uh the I m F. David Malpas being the head of the World Bank, wanted to extend it

for a full year. So China is doing less than in order to be doing to help these emerging economies really get back to normalization here by not willing to come forward on disclosure as they should as the other countries do, and be willing to restructure over longer periods of time that that that they've given out in the

One Belt, One Road. So that's all very well and good, but there's a lot of uncertainty out there right now, and you know, can trying to afford to be so generous at a time when trade is of the air trade of the United States, trade with Europe, trade with Britain, um. You know, it's it's not quite clear that China's through

the woods either. Yes, regarding COVID, well, they have controlled it because obviously the system of China is basically a dictatorship, and so they've been able to control the outbreak since the original one in Wuhan at the end of last year. The beginning of this year, and so their economy has been able to come back much quicker and stronger than

any of the other economies. UH. The estimate of the I m F is that this year as a whole, two thousand twenty, the world economy is going to actually be a negative territory four point four percent, which didn't even happen at the worst moment of the Great Recession. So that gives you a picture of the effect of

COVID has had on on the world economy. And David Malpas estimates at the head of the World Bank that during the course of this year will have seen a hundred million people pass into extreme prop poverty from the effects of the corovid UH COVID virus. So, Bill, what do you think a Biden administration means for UH the US in terms of its global role? Here you came from a time when, you know, the post UH you know, World War two, Cold War era, where the US really

lead an international community. Do you think we can get back to that? Do you think that's what President like Biden wants. I think that's definitely wants to do. He already said that he will rejoin the Paris Agreement on Climate change we're the only major country that hasn't signed off on it. We did originally under Obama and then

it was withdrawn by Trump. Also, I think he will try and arrange to get our problems settled with the World Trade Organization, which is very, very important because we've been fighting there. So I think in general you will see a much more consideratory attitude visa VI. I think our allies in the in the sense of trying to be more of a positive element in some of these discussions that are being held and trying to extract us from this terrible pandemic and it's terrible impact on the

world economy. Bill, Where would you be looking right now for an example of a healthy economy. Well, I I already mentioned that the economy that's going to grow the only one in the G twenties China. But I mean you wouldn't call it a healthy economy either. Well, it's healthy in the sense of UH having growth, and of course the consumer hasn't come back as they're looking for, but their exports have started to trend up, and so when you look around, they're about the only example, particularly

of large countries that you can point out to. And next year is going to be a difficult year also because so much will depend on the vaccine being made available on large quantities around the world. Old also, hopefully there'll be some progress on a treatment right Mark is working on something supposedly similar to uh to Tama flu for the flu. But we're we've still got a long ways to go here. Hey, Bill, thanks so much for

joining us. As always, we always appreciate your perspective. Bill Rhodes, President and CEO of William R. Rhodes Global Advisors, also a former chairman at City Bank. That was Rude Dauber, Executive vice president and president of Biopharma suitables business unit at Astra Zeneca speaking with Guy Johnson and Alex Steele about their vaccine Vanni. It's it's the third major vaccine to come to the market, lower efficacy rates, but still

um a promising drug at this point, right exactly. So an early analysis showing the vaccine stopped an average of seventy participants from falling ill. That rose to one of two regiments. So I think it would be good if you get some analysis from someone he knows a lot about these things well, and we can do that with our good friend Sam Fazzelli. He's a senior pharmaceutical analysts for Bloomberg Intelligence. His day job is also the head

of the research business for Bloomberg Intelligence all across Europe. Sam, you know, we this is the third major company to bring UM a vaccine to market. Give us your thoughts on this astro Zeneca Oxford vaccine yep, Guy high poem Bonny. So you know, I've listened to what what Rod just said, just said, so you know, and I do think that it's very harsh to call us seven you precent effective vaccine useless because it's it's not true UM even at that level if that turned out to be the level

of efficacy, and we don't know, they don't know. That division between the kind of doses is a little bit um kind of academic at the minute, until we know the background to it and that that's sufficient to help many many countries with a vaccine that is easy to ship and cost very little relatively speaking. So it is it is a useful vaccine to have. It's just not it didn't show the same sort of efficacy which were worried about relative to UM that our fighter and BioNTech

and MODERNA. So just to finish that line. The question now is does this mean that the vaccine's durability is also lower. That's something we have to wait and find out, right and we don't really know about the durability of any of the vaccines right now. Some explain to us, though, what exactly all of these numbers means. So the vaccine stopped an average of participants falling ill, which rose to for one of two regiments. So if he used half of those followed by a full one, that gave you

a nine chance. But then later on we learned that the two full doses showed an efficacy of sixty What does all this mean that it depends on how you receive the dosage, or it could us be um just

random numbers. The reality is that when you look at the other group that had the ninety percent efficacy, it's that the sort of numbers only if you remember with Finds Interim at thirty two cases and all that we were very worried about getting a forced read, and here we're at that sort of number in that group of people. We just need the company to do more analysis to give us more data. Why they chose to put this out today rather than I think he said that in

a few days time they'll have more detail. Why didn't they just wait until inn It's just a little bit beyond me, So Sam, it seems to me and I guess this is not surprising. But it's competitive here between these companies too. It seems like they're all trying to one up each other and maybe talking up their particular

vaccine at the expense of others. So at the end of the day, I guess what I'm learning is every Monday morning, it seems it's not merger Monday, it's vaccine in Monday, and those companies are really trying to I guess, best position themselves. So this still is a commercial. It's a business, isn't it it is. That's a good one, Paul. I just hope it's not next Monday, because I'm hoping to take a half the day off. The issue is, funnily enough, for after it's the least important of all

they're not. They're selling this at cost. Fither I get BioNTech, I get Moderna I get, but they're selling this at cost. So what is the point of this if we is there some kind of political pressure on them? Because the UK and Europe are very dependent on this vaccine and they don't have enough doses of the fires of BioNTech and modern A vaccine contract for next year. The US is different. The US has enough of those two vaccines

to cover all its population. So now here we are perhaps they're being pushed to to come up with a positive answer too, because we need our people to feel good as they go to Christmas. That kind of thing. Well, there's not can be app at refrigerator temperatures, which is great news. But also Astra expects to have more than three hundred million dollars ready to ship globally by the end of the first quarter of next year, with about

one two hundred million dollars being produced monthly. How does that compare with what can be produced by the other vaccine companies. Yeah, so I think finds that I've talked about one point um one point three billion dosars next year, or just over a billion dozars next year. Moderna are not far off into the into the high hundreds of millions. Frankly, we were all we know, we we were not have enough vaccine doses next year to inarculate everybody around the

world unless every vaccine worked. So it may end up being that you just take your astra vaccine because you pay me a little for it. You get your population as much as you can vaccinated, assuming they come through the door knowing that the vaccine is potentially less effective than some other vaccine at some point in the future, and then go back to them as Okay, now we're going to give you the next one to give you

a real hardcore boost. But that needs to be studied. So, Sam, I think you know, at the beginning of this, when we started speaking to you and the other folks in the business, we were told to expect, Hey, if you get efficacy efficacy rates of sixty, that's a really good number. And then we got you know, those two Fightser and the the other one Mode Owner with did we just get spoiled? There? Is this still a good number? It's exactly the phrase I used in something else I'm writing

for spoiled. We are we were spoiled. We would nobody expected those, which is why we got the jubilation that we did. But the fact is that they're there, and we've kind of got a corroboration from two independent companies using a similar technology that gives you that number. So you can get that for this virus. The point is Aster didn't manage it so far. We just have to get more detailed. I'm not ready to completely be them up for certainly they didn't deserve to be up for

severy percent. That's a pretty good achievement. As it is. In the world of vaccines you mentioned, you know, taking one and then taking another and seeing how that would work. What happens when someone gets two different kinds of vaccines for something. Is it automatically true that they will be more vaccinated? Um? Not necessarily, and you do have to

study it. So for instance, there are two shingles vaccines out there, one that Merk Pharmaceuticals had for years excuse me, and then TLAX of Smith client comes with a much more effective one later. Currently you're advised to wait five years once you've had one the mark one, before you take the glacks of one. But until somebody doesn't study and say, actually, look you're fine, or we're doing it giving you a booster, you can't really be sure. So you have to you have to take that with a

pinch of salt. Same give us the the economics with these vaccines here you mentioned astra is going to do it, I guess roughly at cost. They're not looking to make a profit. How does how are those decisions made? Is it a political thing, a regulatory thing? Is it just a business decision? No? No, no. After I've never had a vaccine's business, and they went into this, could I say for the for the love of humanity and the fact that I think we all need to get our

businesses back on track and get the world back to normal. Um. They did, they they you know, they went out right at the beginning, just like Johnson and Johnson did. And Johnson and Johnson does have a vaccine's business, not necessarily the biggest in the world, but it does have researching vaccine at least. Um. So you know, they both said the same thing. We're not going to make money on

the pandemic during the pandemic. So if there's a use potential for the vaccine after the pandemic, like an annual boost their requirement, then we reserve the right. So that's not their phrases I'm paraphrasing, we reserve the right to make a profit. Fitherer and Mother never did that. They just went out and said, Okay, we're going to make the money out of this, so and ASTRA did take money from the government's various governments, quite a bit of money. Actually,

where will these companies compete internationally? So will some of them be more likely to distribute to you underdeveloped countries and poorer countries and some less? So, you know, I I'd really hesitate to say to answer that question, because if you assume at the end of the day that the astro vaccine is not asificate effective as the others, and you say, okay, well let's have that in the developing world, that really is not a message that I would like to be talking to anybody about at the

end of the day. But perhaps to say, here is the vaccine that I can get to you easily, to every corner of your country with just the fridge or refrigerator. Sorry, um, then that's a different message. So we just have to be very careful with the messaging here. I think, unfortunately it's going to be a lot of people are going to think twice about going to get the astro vaccine, and I don't know what this will do to their

recruitment in their in their US trial. Yeah, so Sam, the scientists, um, you know, really are coming through with some some great science here coming up with the vaccines. What are the companies that we should be looking at or thinking about um in terms of producing and distributing and you know, storing these things. Are there some companies that do this or do the astros Nachas of the world in the in the fists of the world do

that themselves. Yeah, well, so you know, Paul that that's not really my area in terms of but we know that Corning is making a very special glass that's required for these glass files and they would need billions of them, right. We know that Catalan and Emergent bios Solutions and lawns are are are manufacturing partners for many of these companies. So they are all and I think if you look at those share price charts you'll see a similar response

early on when these vaccines started working out. So there will be the partners that will be helping manufacture. In term the distribution it needs to be, it's going to be government work. And you know, you've heard about the military getting involved in the US. You've heard about Walgreens and pharmacists getting involved in the US. So it's it's a pretty broad group of companies and organizations that need

to get involved. Some the researchers that have been working on these vaccines, do you know, and not suggesting that you you would, but just on the off off chance that you do know what they had been working on before and what we might now have to wait a longer time for because resources were switched to vaccine, you know,

covid vaccine production. That's a very good question. I think the researchers that many of the people who started working on this are folks who are in the immunology of microbiology virology background, and I think this is what they do. We do have a virus that's running a mark in the world, and basically that's their bread and butter. They try and understand and solve those things. In terms of research.

You know, it's less the effects are secondary effects are lower diagnoses of diseases because people have not been able to consider the doctors um and you know, with these antibodies and things that are coming through with the requirements for IVY infusions, you've got the issue with um uh you know I V centers. Infusion centers. Now that's where cancer patients go to get their uh their drugs. You don't really want COVID infected patients in there too, So

those are the side effect are thinking. But from a research perspective, I don't think we're seeing anything diverted away from anything. Um, it's just it's just additional, Sam, do you think I mean, I know, when we again started talking to you about vaccines back in the day several months ago, you know, we're talking about four or five, six, seven years for a vaccine to kind of get through approval, and now we're looking at a much much more compressed

time frame here for the COVID vaccines. Do you think this will have a permanent change to how vaccines do get approved in the future, showing that it can be done on a quicker time frame. Well, so, I think Paul, that we certainly are have learned that you don't have to have those massive time frames. Everything was done in series. It is possible to get things done in parallel, but that does have a cost because the FDA and the regulators will get involved. That's one of the things back

to Vonnie's question. They only have so much resources. If they're going to have to be doubling up resources on speeding something up, that means they're taking it away from something else. So and I think with some of the companies have since that a little bit with the gost to FDA responses. So does this change? We certainly have learned that we can do things quicker, and I believe that that going forward that we would be learning to reduce the massive timelines, a lot of which is taken

in regulatory there I say, bureaucracy. Um, so that we don't we don't spend so much time on just selling out paperwork. And that's obviously good for the companies and good for patients. Yeah, absolutely so. So some you know, the numbers are rising all over. Tell us about Europe. I mean, we pretty much know what's happening in the United States. How bad is it across the Europe? Where is it rising? Yes? So in Europe, I think the majority of countries have turned it around. France, where I live,

has got below the twenty number. I mean you you get the odd days where you get a case count where somebody forgot to count something the day before, these kind of things. Um, but they have certainly turned the corner. The UK has has turned the corner or plateaued. Belgium has turned the corner. I think Spain is plateauing, so most of the countries the efforts have spent, which is not shocking because the virus that gets transmitted when you

and I meet face to face, we've reduced that. Therefore, thank god, the number of cases are falling, so it's only in the right direction. So but I suspect that they will be very careful when it comes to the circles reopening. Hey, Sam, thanks so much for joining us. As always, we appreciate your expertise. Sam Fazelli, Senior Pharmaceutical analyst for Bloomberg Intelligence. He also manages the European research business for Bloomberg Intelligence. And Vonnieu. We really appreciate getting

Sam's insights here. Thanks for listening to Bloomberg Markets podcast. You can subscribe and listen to interviews at Apple Podcasts or whatever podcast platform you prefer. I'm Bonnie Quinn. I'm on Twitter at Bonnie Quinn, and I'm Paul Sweeney. I'm on Twitter at pt Sweeney. Before the podcast, you can always catch us worldwide at Bloomberg Radio.