The Fed, Supply Chain, Porsche, And Ukraine (Podcast)

Jersey office. I read this is your Federal Reserve. Anything goes wrong tomorrow, I'm blaming you. But I guess the big issue is they've been a table cloth that you're wearing exactly. They've got a tough road to Hoe. They gotta keep us out of recession while reigning in inflation. How do they do that? Yeah, I'm not sure that they can, and in fact, you know, our view has always been that they have to slow the economy enough

in order to get inflation down. And the big thing right now that that's likely to keep inflation afloat is is the wage picture. And when you look at aggregate Labor income, it's growing at nine percent year on year, even though overall inflation is slowing. That's basically staying, staying steady. So you can wind up in a situation where inflation is a bit more persistent than that the Fed really wants. So Um. So I do think that they're going to

have to high right. I mean if we can get everything else to slow down and just wages rise, well, yeah, real income growth would be phenomenal, but the problem is that the is that real income growth is likely to mean that core inflation prices remained very sticky. Um and so. So one of the so so, one of the big challenges for the Fed is going to be how do

you know, how do you thread that needle? Right, and and and they haven't been able to do that five of the last six times that they've had hiking cycles, and the one time that they kind of did thread that needle in the early nineties, you had a very significant mid cycle slowdown that felt very much like a recession. Um, the only reason why you didn't hit a recession is because you only got like a one and a half percent increase in the unemployment rate. You didn't get a

two percent increase. Right. Well, I mean the market doesn't seem look people don't really think that the Fed can thread that needle. When when we have guests on here they say the Fed made a huge polymist policy mistake last year and they're making a huge one again. This seems to be now consensus. They're gonna tighten so much that they drive us into a recession and we get like Danny Blanche flower style unemployment that's worse than inflation. Well,

I don't think you see. See. I guess the issue is is what is a soft landing? To me, a soft landing might be a mild recession. Right. So if we get a recession that's, you know, somewhat similar to say, the early two thousands, Um, I don't think that that's

necessarily the worst case scenario for for the economy. And if it's, if it's short end uh and mild, that that's actually a win for the Fed, right, because the Federal Reserve, remember that they have two mandates and right now they're not fulfilling one of their mandates by any stretch of the imagination. Right. So, Um, you can't say that they're fulfilling their stable price mandate at the moment. And you know, they only have one real tool in

order to fight that. So they're going to use it in the the only way that they can, and that's the hike interest rates and Um. Now I actually think that that after this particular meeting they're going to be within a hundred basis points of being done. I mean our our view is uh here at Plumberg intelligence, that they're gonna hike to around four and a half percent.

The markets currently priced for that. Um. You know, we might overshoot that a little bit in terms of pricing, but but I think ultimately they'll go to four and a half percent, they stay there for six months to a year Um and then wait to see what happens in the economy and as long as the economy doesn't completely fall out of bed and as long as Um as inflation continues to come down, then then they're going

to call that a win. And four and a half percent, by long term historical standards, is usually around around way you'd expect the high to be. I'm not talking about the night. People are much more worried about it now, even people who have lived through those, from Barry Stern Lick to Um Ray dalio. UH, the alarm has been sounded. Four and a half percent, dallio says, would knock the equity market down another but the but the slock market

is not the economy. Right there there are two different things and you know, so you're talking about evaluation issue. You're talking about, you know, multiples and in equity markets and as opposed to the the overall Um, the the overall economic backdrop. And when you when you look at right now, like like the the challenge that small businesses, for example, are having, which is a huge part of the of of the U S economy, especially when it comes to jobs. It's more than half of the jobs

in the country. Um, you know, they can't find employees, right and and so so. So one of the ironies is is that they have to pay more or they have to work more hours themselves, and and so. So that's one of the reasons why the aggregate Labor income continues to climb because, um, because the people who are

working are making a lot more money, right. So, so, so there's there's a strange balancing act and we in the markets look more at the markets, I think, a lot of times, and we do at the over all broad aggregate economy, which is really what the Federal Reserve cares about the Federal Reserve, could care less if the stock market, if the SMB five hundreds of four thousand or three thousand. What they care about is do people

have jobs and is inflation stable? Right and and the stock market is only one indicator of how part of that is going. Everybody has jobs, all right, hey, IIRA. Everybody's into college at NFL football right now. Thirty seconds. What's the soccer match? I gotta need to focus on

the next few days. Oh Uh yeah, we have Champions League coming up, so it's gonna be it's gonna be a lot of those, those matches and obviously the because of the Queen's because of the queen's funeral, the Premier League matches are all going to have to be rescheduled in this already very tight, Weird World Cup year. So Um, you know, I'm gonna be looking out for that draw, like like when are the all these matches going to

be rescheduled for good stuff? See, you gotta get to it, man, you gotta get your your soccer report, and we get that from Ira Jersey. That's kind of his main GID GIG side hustle. He's chief US interest rate strategist for Bloomberg Intelligence. He's just doing that decades on Wall Street, but he's also a owner of a minor league soccer club Rayale Central New Jersey. Go figure, or something like that. Let's get right to our next guest, Daniel Demartino, booth,

CEO and chief strategist at Quill Intelligence. She was a former advisor to fell a Reserve Bank of Dallas as well. Danielle, thanks for so much for being in our studio today. It's always great to have you in here. Just it just seems like everybody's just the base cases. The feds behind. They're gonna overdo it, they're gonna push this into recession. Is that what's going to happen? Well, I think that's a given. I mean I think. I think that is

I think it's a given. Man. All right, go ahead and yeah, I mean look, you your third quarter GDP estimates of somewhere around a half a percent third quarter. That means that you're likely going to get, the time the September data percolate through the data, you're going to get a third negative print in a row. And I really don't think what we're gonna beat is three quarters in a row then of a negative print, and even if unemployment is still less than four percent Um, the

NBR is going to have to say, okay, it's a recession. Well, INDUSTA production started to tick down and you know, at the end of the day, when you start to hear the magnitude of the Fedex and the Ford announcements, you're like, okay, I don't think they're messing around. So and you know everybody's trying to, as gently as possible, say cost cuts, you know, except for the six of CEOS who are like, well, welcome the resignations. If people just want to work from home,

bring it on. So they're not being shy anymore. So what if the Fed's got an ulterior motive? Well, okay, what is that? You don't think they're just trying to fight inflation? Or do you not even think that's their main goal now? And I don't, because we all, I think people tend to forget that j Powell's and not a PhD in economics. He's a lawyer. He looks at both sides of every single story. He can read real

time data. He understands what Zelos saying. He understands that if you plot forward new car inventories, their growth rate, that they're gonna becoming down in twelve months. He sees that homes under construction are at the highest since, God knows, one of the seventies. He understands all the real time data because he was he was always a practical guy, he was always a banker. So you know he he sees what's happening. So but he and yet he's pushing

forward based on the red herring of super lagged data. Why? Unless he's got another plan. What's the other plan do you think? I think he wants to break the back of the Fed put and I think he wants to change the name of the ECOS building to the Powell building. Okay,

explain what you kind of mean about that. So in the aftermath of the protection black Monday of seven, you know, Greenspan lead information to fixed income trading desks all across Wall Street prior to the Fed injecting liquidity into the markets. The birth of the Fed put October seven. Who in the world is a big there you got October. So you need to be a huge, your constitution has to be huge to break investors psyche. After that, why would

you want to do that? Well, I think. I think if you look at Fat Powell and you look at his net worth north of a million dollars, why would you want to do that? You don't need the pension. Unless he wants to have monetary policy be independent and not have the tail wag the dog. It's a I don't think he's not there. I don't think he do you really think he's enjoying himself? No, I mean, I think it's great if, if that's the case, that's that's

restoring my hope and humanity. If he's not, he's watching a controlled demolition. He's watching one company after another go bankrupt and so far there's nothing systemic that's been unleashed. If he can manage to do this and break the mindset until the job do you want? Until the job is done, means that means I'M gonna keep it up there for a long time. I'M gonna WE'RE gonna get up to four or four and a half and then I'm gonna keep it there as long as I can.

I can't believe the Biden Administration will let him do that. Um, he has veto power. There's he's in for four years. Right. If trump couldn't fire him for cause nose. What will you be looking for in his language tomorrow, in his response to questions that may have those ulterior motive type resilience, I think. I always think about the stories of Paul Volker and how, you know, there was tractors in Washington

D C causing traffigy. People are throwing bricks through the window, you know, mailing him nasty things, the man of the many death threats. We forget that. We've got him up on this huge pedestal and yet at the time he was vilified. But can Powell sustain that kind of if we get a recession that's deep or long, if we get unemployment? That's high deference to the building that I'm in. Think about how the media's narrative shift at last week. Is he going to hurt the rest of the world?

All of a sudden he went from this guy can't fight inflation out of a bag to he's the bad guy, he's gonna hurt us. So when the narrative changes in the media, watch out. But one way or another he's going to be the fall guy and he's not stupid enough to know he's not going to be the fall guy to not know he's going to be the fall guy. He knows he's gonna be the fall guy. Went one way or another. But why not accomplish something really important along the way and get central clearing? This is the

best hit we've done all day. Look, SEC gainsler. Gainsler said, look, they also want central clearing of treasuries. Bring it on, Powell, just do it. Um, fascinating take uh. I really think I'm speechless. Yeah, what are we doing? I mean, I think tomorrow. I mean, I was going to ask you stupid questions about what is three fifty nine mean on treasuries? Or do you care about the inversion of the day?

I think the I find it to be very quaint that the sales sides like, once the two s tends hits negative forty eight basis points, we recommend you sell, I mean take take your money off the table. And I'm like, what if it's forty eight basis points next year at this time? By the way, I uh now you kind of have answered this in a sense, but we have a listener writing in asking do you think the Fed really reads any of the fixed income strategists out there, or do they just rely on their internal

fed color. No, somebody who found at the industrials group at the Carlisle and understands private equity and hand hangs that with Hedge Fund guys. I don't. I don't think he reads all that research. I'm kidding. Very past great stuff. Daniel Demartino, booth uh, CEO and chief trategist at Quill Intelligence, joining us live here and our Bloomberg Interactive Broker Studio U s steal. Yeah, x is the ticker you put into your Bloomberg terminal. You pop it in there and

that's what you get. Rich Fruoff, chief strategy and Sustainability Officer for U Steal, is in our Bloomberg interactive broker studio. This is so cool. Matt and I. We want to talk more company stuff and it doesn't get more company stuff than U s steal. And here's a little tidbit for you. The only company in the US that minds, melts and manufactures steal, and now they're making the commitment to sustainability. Rich, thanks so much for coming into our

studio here. Is that in the US or worldwide? Enterprise wide, worldwide. So we've got a presence in Slovakia but then of course a lot here in the US are sustainability commitment is across the enterprise. But even our slore doesn't do all of that entire vertical I you know, I think they are. Let's be fair, they're a good company. They're very committed to sustainability, but we feel like we've got a best in class program how do you smelt steel, or whatever the verb is. How do you make steel

in a sustainability? I think of Pittsburgh and the smokestacks and all that kind of stuff, allantown, Allentown, absolutely close to here. How do you from a technological perspect of, what changes are you making? How do you do that? Yeah, absolutely so. First of all, you know I have this kind of strange title, right, sustainability and strategy. That's purposeful. So sustainability for us it's not a bolt on, it's

not an add on, it's core to the strategy. So when you're asking about steel making technologies, there's really two basic ways to make steel, as you said, there's the old kind of blast furnace. Your mind iron ore. You put it into a blast furnace, you use cold. It's turned into coke, very c o two intensive right then. You can also now, because of the presence of scrap steel, old cars, old washing machines, old bridges. You cut that up, you put it into what's called an electric arc furnace.

It's about sevent less greenhouse gas emissions when you recycle that steel. You put that scrap in the electric arc furnace, you blast it with electricity, if your electricity is coming from renewables or nuclear, very low carbon intensity, you're recycling the steel, the beauty of steel. It's the most recycled product on earth and every time you recycle it it doesn't lose any of its performance characteristics. So we have embarked in what we call best for all we are strategy.

We have been moving more and more towards this electric arc furnace uh process route to make steel, and so a couple of years ago we bought big river steel in Arkansas, cutting edge, lead certified, the only lead certified steel mill in the United States. Uh Got Daimler's global sustainable supplier of the year award last year and it became the first steel company steel a mill in North

America to receive responsible steel certification. Responsible Steel is a kind of a global standard for responsible steelmaking with a focus on climate change. So, uh, there's a lot to do there. We launched last year as well a line, a brand. We call it verd x x for the word for green, X for our ticker symbol of low carbon intensity steels. And that's what the customers want, the

automotive customers, they're increasingly looking for that. If you think about electric vehicles, you know, if you want to buy an electric vehicle, don't you want your steel? Uh, you want the whole thing to be sustainable, not just the fact that you're getting energy from electricity, hopefully solar generated or wind, but you want the building of the car as well to be sustainable. Is this how you want

to separate yourself from the pack? Because if I throw up US steel on a chart with Alcoa and our slore or any of the big steelmakers, uh, the stock chart, they all look the same. You know, the relation is one. Pretty much. Yeah, so I think you know. When we think about it from a strategy perspective. By the way, I used to work at out Coha, so great company has had a commitment to sustainability. I'm just saying all

the steel companies seem to follow the same stock price pattern. So, Um, it's hard to outperform or underperform all of them over a long period of time. They all run in the same basket. Well, you're exactly right. There is that sort of compression right, um. And so when I said, you know, our sustainability program and our strategy or Inter intertwined, what I really meant about that is certainly the customers want sustainable solutions, whether it's the automotive customers. So we see

an ability there to differentiate ourselves commercially. But back to this move to electric arc furnaces. They are very efficient, Um, not just from a greenhouse gas perspective but from a cost perspective. They're very lean. And so big river steel, which we bought, we've doubled down this. Uh. This past spring we announced we're going to expand at big river, double the capacity to about six, two, six three million

tons of steel making. It's very cost effective, Um, and so we see that as the path forward both to help us differentiate uh from a performance perspective, from a free cash flow generation perspective, from our peers, but also from a sustainability perspective. And you know, one of the things we're doing is investing in the products we see

in the future. Um, I mentioned Verdex, but one of the other things we're doing, uh, if you think about electric vehicles, it's not just do you want to sell to your customer a low greenhouse gas car steel on the car. You actually need steel. Steals part of the solution because you need what's called non grain oriented electrical steel to make the motors that go into E v. So we're we've invested in a two hundred thousand tons non grain oriented electrical steel line should be coming online

at big river sometime next year. So what percentage of your steel production today is, you know, the more sustain the one that you mentioned, your technology versus and maybe what are your goals? Maybe three to five years down the road? Yeah, so right now, I mean look, we're it. Uh. I would say we're moving toward half and half. We're not there yet in North America. Um, in terms of the balance between uh, the integrated and the UH mini mill,

the electric arc furnace. I think longer term, we put out in our sustainability report we called our roadmap, you know, and as we think going longer term, you know, thirty years out we have a net zero target we set for and we see in the first ten years of that thirty year journey more electric arc furnaces. Right now in the United States about two thirds of steel production is through the electric arc furnace route. One third is through the blast furnace and interestingly, you know we think

of Europe as the leader and sustainability. It's flipped there. Two thirds or blast furnaces, one third or electric arc versus. Sit in China a lot of blast furnaces. So we see that as a way to move forward, both from a strategy per active and also from a sustainability person we love to get your take on Um. The Ford announcement today, uh, was interesting because all of the Um cost problems that we may have thought were past us are clearly still front and center. Do you face the

same kind of issues with raw materials costs inflation? Well, I think everybody. You know, I'm a child of the seventies, so you know the inflation. It's like a little bit of a Deja Vu again, but all over again, to quote Yogi Berra. But you know, Um our benefit, our advantage is we also meet mine iron or we're one of the largest iron ore miners in the United States. So we have this vertical into we have that. Absolutely it gives us, I think, a competitive advantage. That iron ore.

We mind about twenty two million tons of iron ore in Minnesota. Coal costs have gone through the roof. And when you talk about Europe uh making it a blast furnace, I think, damn, that's gonna be expensive and Um, they don't really have any other ways of create creating electricity right now. Yeah, certainly Europe Challenge, for sure on the Electricity Front Um. And so that's uh, I think, you know, we're gonna have to see what the EU does in

terms of policy actions there. Uh. You know, on the flip side, we do have a business that's we call it our tubular segment. It's in the oil country tubular goods, and with the need to move l en g to Europe and the increase in drilling here in the United States, that business is doing really well. All right, rich, great to have you in our studio here. Rich fruhoff. He is a chief strategy and sustainability officer for U s steel, and the ticker symbol again is X. to put in

Giblmberg terminal. I want to get to one of the big stories we've been covering today and that is forward. The company's stock has been decimated in the market, down by ten percent, after saying the accurate. Yes, a lot of assesimated things. Reduced to ten percent of its former self. But decimated is actually reducing, to use it just as

a just down big. True. Yes, okay, the way. It is down big because they said costs are going to be up by over a billion dollars in the quarter and that's gonna obviously Um put a real weight on margins. But their full year forecasts remains unchanged. David Welch joins us. He is our go to reporter out of the Detroit Bureau for all things automotive. David Um. UH, well, and Detroit Bureau chief, my producer reminds me. But yes, uh,

he mainly keeps tabs on these carmakers for us. David Um, you know, this was a bit of surprise for me because I have been thinking maybe the supply chain problems, commodity inflation is in the rear view mirror. Um, what

did you think? We've made the mistakes probably many times, and the car companies themselves have told us over the last two years, particularly in relation to semiconductor, said, Oh, yeah, second half of this year, it should get better, and I think they really do, uh, at times, believe that. And then something else happened. Um, you know in some of these cases that you know you could have pandemic shutdowns in Asia, that that caused supply chain problems in

Jack up pricing for certain commodities. But this one feels different than the COVID and semiconductor related issues we've had. This seems more just general inflationary uh, and that's what the fettest fighting today. That's what I think many economies around the global fighting. Um, what is a little bit surprising, you know, go ahead now. Is it just wondering how much this is, you know, just pure inflation for some of their inputs, versus still some lingering supply chain issues

that maybe pushing up, you know, the prices here? Did did the company delineate any of that? Not Really. The best we kind of have is that they did say it's inflation related. Okay, and then we've got analysts, Ryan Brinkman from JP Morgan, saying that higher and higher inflation related supplier costs seem to have a higher chance of occurring. Um as you know, as opposed to chip short just this doesn't seem tip related. This seems like general inflation

out there. For the parts they buy. Fuel is still it's come down but it's still expensive and and and everything. They you know, all of those thirty thou parts have to be shipped someplace. Uh, you know, thirty parts to make one vehicle. So look, it's just general inflationary kind

of stuff. And you know one thing, and that is the reason I was a little surprised that the car companies always tell us in inflationary periods like this, or if there's a certain commodity that that is on the rise, that they've got these long term contracts locked in that protect them for a significant period of time. But it sounds like either for some of these things they've either run out of that runway or they had to renegotiate contracts just to get stuff. I'm kind of speculating here,

but that the net result is. You know, they're talking about a billion dollars more in cost and if you look, Ford stock is down nine percent, GM stock is downe on this five percent. GM is not issued a similar warning, but they buy a lot of the same things. So that Toyota, so does everybody else, so the next shoes they could drop could be similar issues at other car companies. Yeah, it'll be interesting. We'll be watching closely to see if we hear anything from the competitors. What do we know

about specific models? I have a friend, a buddy of mine at a boulder who ordered a Bronco before my daughter was born two years ago and still hasn't gotten it. And you know, I'm starting to see more of them on the road. But I'm thinking this is such a slam dunk vehicle for Ford. If they could only make more of these so cool and doesn't cost so much Um, it just would be a huge seller. Are Those all

sitting on the lots waiting for chips? In many cases you have that and that's really that's what Ford's talking about here, is that in the quarter uh, they see a lot of vehicles just sitting on lots waiting for chips. I'm a little surprised that someone's waiting two years on a vehicle. I've heard people waiting six or eight months, but not that long. So yeah, you do have a

lot of vehicles sitting on lots. I drove by the General Motors Plant in Flint, Michigan a few weeks ago and you know, they make heavy duty pickup trucks out there, a big money maker in a in a very popular vehicle, and there there were a sea of trucks in the parking lot and those trucks are all waiting on chips or some module that contained a chip, and when Jim gets them in they'll pop it in and put it on the truck haller and send it off to some dealerships.

But in the meantime they're gathering dust out in the yard and there's just a lot of that going on industry wide. I know how that feels. David is the waited on my Silverado actually felt like an eternity, but you're right, it wasn't more than six to eight months. It was seven. Hey, we got it now, David is it days of seventeen millions SAR others days over? Well, they're over for the foreseeable future because no one can build enough to, you know, to satisfy that kind of demand.

But automotive pricing is still very high. There are still people waiting on vehicles, there are people not even shopping because they know they can't find what they want. So we'll have pent up demand for a while. The the so if they can build the vehicles, they can get to whatever, you know, whatever the million vehicles is for the year. That that uh that they can build because people will buy them. Um, the issue is getting back

to seventeen million going forward. Does do these interest rate cuts and inflation and all the other economic cross winds, headwinds that are going on out there? Does that push some of these people who have been shopping, are waiting to the sidelines out of lack of consumer confidence, lack of a job? Right now, employment is great, everyone's working, who wants to have you know, who wants to work. So there's money being made out there and plenty of

people can buy vehicles. But does that all cool off because of what the Fed may do today and has already done so? And that's the thing. First wave here is supply chain problem, semiconductors and inflation. Second wave is, even if, even if that gets back to normal, what happened Stud right, all right, David, great stuff as always, David Welch. He's the Detroit Bureau chief for Bloomberg News, covering all things autos. Again, Ford down about nine point

five percent today on higher costs. It is a treat from Matt and I because we have barry ridholts. He is the ridhult's wealth management dude. He's got a masters in business. PODCAST was just rips and he's in studio for the next fifteen minutes with how good is that? I'm excited. All right, let's talk. Let's talk to our next guest about what's going on in the Ukraine. Let's do that. David's Ake and CEO and founder of key elements group, David, I guess just my first question here

is this has been a disaster from day one. How much of a risk is this in Russia? To Mr Putin, thank you for having you here. Now that the best has settled a bit, we can begin to understand the events of the last weeks. In this decisive counters Ukrainian forces managed to day more territory then Russia has seised since April. The effect on morale that this victory has had cannot be overstated. Ukrainian forces liberated about seven percent

of occupied territory in just one B um. Russia's desperation is now manifesting, and weapons purches from regimes like North Korea and they run, which are also signaling that Russian industry is struggling to keep up even the production of weapons. So straight answer to threat at home. Remember, Russia is a petrol of state run by counter and debt counter Intel.

Palicebero all major decisions down by putting himself and three others, and they're under tremendous threats and pressure today and, as we noticed, parliament has passed the law introducing concept of mobilization and martial law. I want to bring it first. At first, I just wanted to explain the listeners why we're asking you about this, because you are an expert

in crisis management. You advise politicians as well as multinational brands about how to deal with Um, such crises, and you know, surely Vladimir Putin seems like someone who needs some advice right now. What would you tell him? Um, unfortunately or unfortunately, he wouldn't listen to my advice because he's in uh, he's surrounded by UH counter and tea and uh their way of dealing with this is doubled down.

My advice would be uh, find a way to communicate to Ukraine, leave the territory, go back to February, twenty three boarders, but they wouldn't listen. Um. So this is how they doubling down now and I would would expect that they will not listen to anybody at this stage yet. So let's talk a little bit about the endgame, it sounds like. Well, first, it's a too early to be discussing the endgame. In second what sort of options does Putin have, short of tactical nuclear weapons, to resolve this

in a way that doesn't dramatically undercut his support at home? Look, Russian Army Modessani so far was brutality against innocent civilians. Um, UM, extra community to talk about potential attack, but if you remember the size of the table you can have when he meets somebody, he's not suicidal. So at the end of the day, Um, I don't see him moving into that direction. Beyond nuclear strikes, my main concern as the

PARISIA nuclear power station. If you remember, this is one of the largest in Europe, and any and all military activity within striking distance of the plants it's a great risk to the entire European continent. And Russian forces played with fire around the area, and this is displaying total disregard for human life as the course. So I don't

see him going that praising. He's not suicidal. But they see him doubling down and Um holding referendum uh in Thea Porigia, Herson done Gugans, and then saying to Ukrainians and Western partners, how about you guys having war now with Russian territory called Russian now? All right, I mean it's obviously difficult situation. We'll have to see how it plays out. Lots of twist and turns coming up. No doubt David's can CEO and founder's key elements group there.

Thanks for listening to the Bloomberg markets podcast. You can subscribe and listen to interviews with apple podcasts or whatever podcast platform you prefer. I'm Matt Miller. I'm on twitter at Matt Miller v Three on Falsewheney. I'm on twitter at PT Swe need before the podcast. You can always catch US worldwide at Bloomberg radio. m