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Tech, EM, and US Steel

Dec 18, 202336 min
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Episode description

Dan Ives, Senior Equity Analyst at Wedbush Securities, joins to discuss China scaling back iPhone use, the latest Tesla headlines, and gives his 2024 outlook for tech. Brooke Sutherland, columnist with Bloomberg Opinion, joins to discuss Nippon Steel acquiring US Steel, and outlook for M&A as well as industrials in 2024. Penny Foley, Managing Director of Emerging Markets at TCW, joins to discuss the outlook for emerging markets. Wendi Whitmore, SVP and Head of Palo Alto Network’s cybersecurity team, joins to discuss cyber risks and costs for businesses. Hosted by Paul Sweeney and Jess Menton.

See omnystudio.com/listener for privacy information.

Transcript

Speaker 1

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Speaker 2

Welcome to the Bloomberg Markets Podcast. I'm Paul Sweeney alongside my co host Matt Miller.

Speaker 1

Every business day we bring you interviews from CEOs, market pros, and Bloomberg experts, along with essential market moven News.

Speaker 2

I'm the Bloomberg Markets podcast called Apple Podcasts or wherever you listen to podcasts, and at Bloomberg dot Com Slash podcast. Dan, I've senior Equadanaos Whatbush Security covers all things technology. Hey Dan, let's start with the Apple news that just came across the tape here A little bit delaying or halting temporarily at least some of their watch sales in the US. What do you make of this news? Again, it stocks off about one point three percent today.

Speaker 3

Yeah, I mean, look, there have been some issues on the on the Apple watch side, and a lot of it is really around models in terms of what they're trying to drive. I view this as just a small bump of the room. But I actually think watchals this holiday season are going to be up double digit. So I viewed this is sort of noise relative to the broader story.

Speaker 4

And I was informed that you are at the airport. So for YouTube audience, unfortunately can't see Dan right now, but usually he's got the pastels on. Paul knows what I'm talking about, but he needs so we're disappointed there. But when you have a stock like this, obviously back around at three trillion dollar market cap threshold, trading round records in news like this kind of breakdown to us, does it make sense to you because you'd think, I mean, the stock's only down I think a little more than

one percent at this point. Is it just kind of a reason to sell a little bit here?

Speaker 5

Yeah?

Speaker 3

And does in my opinion this is the start of the next phase of the Apple growth story, because essentially what's happening now is services is upticking. Despite some of the news come out of China. You know, I saw Bloomberg report it, which is obviously overall headwind, China is actually resilient as overall demand. So when you put it together, I think a year from now, still in pastels, I think we're looking to afford trillion dollar mark now.

Speaker 2

So Dan give us I don't know your latest thinking on just China in general, because arguably there is no company in the world that is more exposed positively and potentially negatively to China, both as a customer and as a source of product. How do you break that down for your clients?

Speaker 3

Yeah, look, I think, and someone like myself spends so much time in the region, you got to separate between headline risk and what's really happening in the market. I think Huawei, what we've seen in terms of cold tech war between.

Speaker 6

US and China.

Speaker 3

Yeah, it's an issue, but there's one hundred million iPhones in China that have an upgrade in three years, so the demand continues to be strong there, and I think when it comes from a production perspective, they'll diversify some into India. But the reality is next two to three years, I mean, that's not going to significantly change. That is the hearts and lungs of the Apple story, supply and demand.

Speaker 4

And Dan, we know you're arguably the biggest bull on Wall Street when it comes to technology. But what do you think is the biggest risk to your brule case in the shorter term?

Speaker 2

Here?

Speaker 3

Look, I think the biggest risk your term is China. It's not the numbers, it's not fed despite the poker game, you know, regard everyone knows you're gonna have cuts in twenty four that I think creates really this Pillsbury dough Boys soft landing.

Speaker 6

I think it's really the China story. It's the it's the geopolitical.

Speaker 3

But that's also why a lot of the Bears that have been hibernation mode through all of twenty twenty three, they're starting to come out of their caves a little and look at this market, because I believe it's started this new tech bowl market.

Speaker 2

Hey, Dan, I guess AI. As we think back to twenty twenty three, AI was certainly a theme, the theme, certainly the tech theme. As we look forward to twenty twenty four. Is there something else out there? How do you what's the theme for twenty twenty four in your mind?

Speaker 6

Yeah, Paul, I think it's okay.

Speaker 3

I think it's really use cases because if you if you follow the breadcrumbs filew the use cases, you'll find the treasure. So the use cases are really what's gonna drive leg of growth for Microsoft, for Google, for what we see with the Godfather of AI and Vidia and Jenten, and then you have some of the pure players like Pound, Pier, Mango, Dib and others. And I think it's actually a year from now it's going to be the rest of tech. The rest of tech joins this party. I still view

it from a tech party. It's nine to thirty pm, it's not two am.

Speaker 4

Who So, walk us through Tesla. You had a note that came out at the end of the last week talking about how Tesla battle with unions in Scandinavia. Now on the radar for the street, you do have a twelve month price target around three hundred and ten dollars currently trading for Tesla. Right now it stucks around two hundred and fifty seven dollars. Walk us through what you're seeing with Tesla here and what you see moving forward.

Speaker 6

Yeah, I mean, look, I think when you look at.

Speaker 3

Deliveries, feel d risk for Q four. I think we're seeing a good China number, and I think that's something. There's a stock that's going to probably move higher in the next few weeks, going to deliveries in early in early January.

Speaker 6

Bill with the.

Speaker 3

Union issue, it's a UFC battle at WWE. I mean they're they're starting to see it now in Scandinavia. It was Sweden originally, Now it's gone to Norway. Than when Denmark the worry here, you give in here then uaw sean fain. They watched this carefully, so you can't give it in to you give a mile.

Speaker 6

And I think that's why this battle is so.

Speaker 3

Important, because I think there's a better chance to me playing an NFL playoffs than teslavn union workers. Wow.

Speaker 2

Hey, so Dan, one of the things I'm trying to get wrap my head around is again, AI, I guess I'm there. I was, you know, a little bit, you know, I don't know, just cautious, skeptical at the beginning. I guess what would help me get a little bit more on board is I can go back and look at the IBC technology spend over the last you know, number of years. How much of that going forward incrementally will be AI versus I don't know, just tech spending growth in general.

Speaker 3

Sure, it's a great question. I think actually it's it's a phenomenal question because it hits it the crux here in twenty twenty three, we think we'll less than one percent of budgets or AI twenty four based on our analysis, eight to ten percent of it budgets will be AI driven. That's why it's the Latto ticket for those companies with the use cases, software chip services.

Speaker 6

That go into that market. And I think it's all use case driven.

Speaker 3

Eighty use cases today, three four months ago you had less than twenty.

Speaker 4

We've talked so much, and especially analysts on Wall Street about the productivity boom potentially when it comes to AI. Walk us through what you think AI skills are and how employees can acquire them.

Speaker 3

Well, I think I was just I was at a conference speak in a few weeks ago, and it was more of an accounting conference, and you know they're My suggestion is, you know, for anyone on the account it's really gonna be developer language, whether it's Python or other.

I think you're gonna see more and more from a developer language perspective starting early that you're going to see more starting take that over as another skill set, because if you understand AI and the developer language as more of these functional areas finance, marketing, within hospitals, within healthcare, it's going to just from a skill set perspective and be that much more valuable.

Speaker 4

Do you think it's not necessarily than just the stereotypical STEM type careers. It can go beyond that.

Speaker 6

I think it goes way beyond that.

Speaker 3

And that's why I just disagree with the view the whole like it takes away everyone's jobs, because I think in the the next three to five years it's a job creator when you actually start to look at what's going to happen from the developers first by marketing and use cases. And I think that's why it's so important. So then we'll be come out for the for really the next decade.

Speaker 2

All right, Dan ives, thank you so much. We appreciate that. As always, Dan i'ves He's a managing director, senior equity analyst web Bush Securities and a huge Penn State fan he made even going down to Atlanta as Penn State football that Nitleylands continued preparations for the December thirtieth Peach Bowl date with old miss in Atlanta.

Speaker 4

I bet we see your picture on I bet you'll see that social medium.

Speaker 2

Yeah, he'll be out there on the field. We'll figure that out. So against a little bit of news out there on Apple today about a temporary hault of certain watches starting in a few days in the US, stock off a little more than one percent. Maybe on that news, dan Ives takeaway was not material to the overall story at Apple.

Speaker 5

You're listening to the teenth Ken's Line program Bloomberg Markets weekdays at ten am, daring on Bloomberg dot com, the iHeartRadio app, and the Bloomberg Business App, or listen on demand wherever you get your podcasts.

Speaker 2

Niphan agreeing to buy US Steel for fourteen point one billion dollars, the deal of the day, books Southerman Jorans, And she's a columnist covering all these industrial companies and end deals, so a great voice to get on that. She's from Bloomberg Opinion zooming in from Boston. Hey Brooke, what do you make of this deal. I mean, it kind of feels like I'm trying to wrap my head

around the valuation. The last time I had paid attention, Cleveland Cliffs had a seven billion dollar offer on the table, and now fourteen billion. Where did that come from?

Speaker 7

It is certainly a very robust premium. I mean, I think that underscores the value of these assets, especially in the context of the saer amount of investment we're seeing in the US in infrastructure and also in factory construction. You need steel to make all of those things. US steel has also been pivoting toward greener production strategies. All of that is very valuable, and these are scarce assets. There's not that many big steel companies left to purchase

and for nipon. The ability to gain a really strong foothold in the US, I think is what's really driving this premium here. But it's certainly a significant step up from what we were talking about in August when Cleveland Cliffs lobbed in its initial bid, And I think that's why you see Cleveland Cliffs out this morning congratulating US steal on this steal and wishing them luck. I think that economic gulf is just far too wide for them to be able to close.

Speaker 4

If you look at US steel stock ticker simple AX up about twenty six percent on pace for its best day since August fourteenth of earlier this year, you look at Nippon, it's actually down about close to five percent. So is it fair to say, if you are a US steel shareholder that they're liking this steal?

Speaker 7

I mean sure, I don't know what there is to not like about this steal. If you're a US steel shareholder, it's normal for you know, stocks of the acquired to go down on the announcement. I mean, I think the biggest question as a US steel shareholder is what the US government is going to think of this steal. You know.

On the call today to talk about it, executives said they did not foresee any issues from ascifius perspective, although of course this will get a review with a foreign company buying a US one, I think that it might be slightly more complicated than their answers on the call suggested. It's this is a very politically charged industry. It was not that long ago that we were slapping tariffs on steel imported from Japan as a quote unquote national security issue.

And so I think this is going to get a lot of scrutiny. We already had some comments from politicians, you know, back in August, when this kind of first came under you know, the prospect of a deal was being talked about, the number of politicians said, we do not want to see US steals sold to a foreign company. And obviously that is the announcement that we're getting today. And so it's going to be interesting to see what

happens with this now, I will say. I mean, there's been a number of foreign companies making investments in the US, spurred by the incentives included in the Chips Act, included in the IRA those have been cheered by the Biden administration. And from a practical standpoint, if jobs are being created and factories are being built, does it really matter if it's a US company or a US subsidiary of a company that's based in a country that's a strong US ally.

Maybe not, But politics can be very prickly.

Speaker 2

How about the unions, Brooke, I know the unions are a very important voice in these deals, and I believe the union had supported the Cleveland Cliffs offered. I'm not sure about this one.

Speaker 7

No and so they you know, they the head of the unions made some comments of Bloomberg News this morning in the interview that the notice on this deal was rather short and they were not involved in the communication leading up to it, and so it will be interesting to see, you know, what tactic the union takes doesn't like this deal. I don't know what avenues they have to push back. At this point, they'd transferred their right to they'd said they were willing to transfer their right

to counterbid to Cleveland Cliffs. But as I mentioned, Cleveland Cliffs is that this morning congratulating us steal and the deal. They do not look like they're gearing up to try to challenge this offer. And the difference between what Cleveland Cliffs was offering Nipon is now offering is very wide, and that would be a very tough bridge to tough gap to bridge. So I'm not entirely sure what the union can do to block the deal.

Speaker 6

At this point.

Speaker 4

So any sort of regulatory hurdles.

Speaker 7

Yes, like I just was talking about with Cyphius, I think that's going to be a key one to watch.

Speaker 2

So there's nothing like can you actually explain Syphius to me? Because I was just going to ask about DOJ or FTC, but maybe there's a different body here, So explain the Syphius review.

Speaker 7

Sure, So Syphius gets involved when there's a foreign company acquiring a US act and they tend to review deals from a national security perspective. So it's a different process than what we typically see from the anti trust regulators. You know, there was some question about whether a Cleveland Cliff's US steel combination would raise anti trust red flags. I don't think that's the primary concern in this case is Nipon does not have a particularly robust presence in

the US already from a steel perspective. So the question is really going to be are we comfortable with letting a foreign company own this US asset? Obviously, Japan is a very important US ally. It is a very different question than if there was a Chinese company trying to come in and buy a US steel maker. But I still think, just given the environment that we are in politically and all of the scrutiny over ownership of important American assets, that this is going to get sub scrutiny.

Speaker 4

Do you foresee additional m and A happening in that particular industry group. On the back of this.

Speaker 7

Never say never. I mean, anytime you have a big deal like this, it tends to get people thinking about what other possibilities there could be. But this is already a very consolidated industry, and so I think to see much more consolidation happen would be difficult. And then you do start bumping up on questions of antitrust.

Speaker 2

So explain to me, Brooke. I know one of the growth areas of US Steel is I think they have a new plant maybe in Arkansas or something. Can you talk to us about that plant and that technology.

Speaker 7

Sure, and so it's a greener technology, you know, they use sort of more recycled materials. This is sort of the considered the future of steel making, and so that's obviously a very attractive asset for Nifeon. And you know, these companies talked a lot about and McCall about sort of their shared commitment to decarbonizing, about investing in R and D and new technologies to try to improve upon the steel making process. And so that's certainly one of the key drivers of this acquisition.

Speaker 4

And when it comes to something like this, especially if you're thinking about steel and what that means for the global economy as far as the position that these two companies are in, what do you think this tells us about the global economy if these two are potentially mrging here?

Speaker 7

Sure, I mean, I think it's a vote of confidence in the US manufacturing renaissance or revitalization of US supply chains, on shoring, whatever you want to call it. It's a narrative that's taken some hits recently. If you look at particularly in the EV sector, there's been a number of companies sort of pulling back or delaying some of the investments that they've announced, and you know that sort of just does raise the question of, Okay, well, what does

this on shoring boom actually look like? And this is something that I've written about a lot. Is I think that you know, there was a lot of enthusiasm around this, partly because of the government stimulus, that this was never going to be sort of a clear and streamlined timeline. That there's a lot of variability here, a lot of pushes and pulls. This is not something that has you know,

managed to separate itself entirely from the broader economy. That companies are still sort of subject to those economic forces, but there are underlying tailwinds here that are driving investment, one of which, of course is the stimulus funds, and that there is you know, the lessons learned from COVID, but also you know the terrafs or the Trump administration that it's very valuable to have a US supply chain and not be dependent on having ship goods from across oceans.

And then you know, the energy transition. Things like that are very strong underlying forces that I think will ultimately lead to more manufacturing in the US. It just may not happen on the on the timeline that we might have been hoping for.

Speaker 2

Brooke, thanks so much for joining us. Brook Sutherland calumnist covering industrials and deals for Bloomberg Opinion. Again, Japan's a Nipon agrees to buy US Steel for fourteen point one billion, and of course I go check out who the bankers are on the m and a banker City Group is acting as financial advisor to Nipon steal. Barclay's, Goldman, Sachs

and Evercore are advising US Steel. So this is a it's a good deal to get announced before year in to you know, global iconic names, particularly US Steel, but Nippon Steel has been a big, big player globally for a long time. So good m and a trade to get on your sheet right before year in. You go talk to your boss and well, they'll be working over the holidays papering over this deal.

Speaker 5

You're listening to the tape. Cat's are live program Bloomberg Markets weekdays at ten am Eastern on Bloomberg Radio, the tune in app, Bloomberg dot Com, and the Bloomberg Business App. You can also listen live on Amazon Alexa from our flagship New York station. Just say Alexa play Bloomberg eleven thirty.

Speaker 2

Penny Folly, managing director for Emerging Markets for TCW, joins this year in studio, so she gets a special gold star there. Penny, How can I play merging markets when my biggest merging market is China and I have no idea what's going on in China? How do you guys think about that from a thirty thousand foot.

Speaker 8

Level, Well, we focus obviously on fixed income. China is actually a relatively small part of the index. It's about four percent, and we're typically that's the dollar index, and we're underweight. China could use corporates to some extent, which are pretty defensive, shorter maturity, higher ratings. So that would be how we play China in the dollar market. In the local currency market, we've used China as a funder

largely low you know, is it low yields. The currency has been relatively stable, so that for US is a funder. If you look at EM as a whole, the growth rates this year have widened relative to DM growth rates. We expect the same and twenty twenty four, and that excluding China, we expect growth to really remain pretty much the same from twenty three to twenty four. So I think the fundamentals are pretty attractive in these markets. If you look at the world from a debt perspective, debt

peaked at about sixty two This is excluding China. Debt peaked at about sixty two and a half percent in twenty twenty. We expect it to be about fifty six percent by the end of twenty twenty four. There was a lot of concern about default in twenty at the beginning of twenty twenty three, and that concern continues. They're about seventeen countries in EM that don't have access to

the public markets, so those are clearly candidates. Of those, eight have maturities in twenty twenty four, and we expect seven of those will be able to make it through with funding from the IMF and other sources local markets as well. The only one that is at risk is Athiopia, which obviously just announced their intention not to pay.

Speaker 4

How do you view emerging markets that are commodities driven emerging markets versus the rest that aren't as closely tied to commodities, as far as what their economic outlook looks like next year.

Speaker 8

You know, I think that one of the things to think about in emerging markets is the index today for fixed income is about seventy countries plus, so they're all over the place. It used to be back in the old days, when you could just say this is a this is a trade where you know we're going to have compression of spreads, and everybody was pretty much in the same area. We had ten countries in the index and two thousand, you had thirty in two thousand and eight,

and you have over seventy. So it's very much a game of differentiation. And so in our in our strategy, we're about forty countries and that so we really are ignoring about a third of the index. And there are countries that we that are in the in the portfolio because we like the local story and you know, Mexico and Brazil or two that benefit both from local story as well as in the case of Brazil, uh is commodities and in the case of Mexico it's really near

shoring into the US. So those are two countries we like very much.

Speaker 2

What else besides those, how risky do you go out in your kind of profile for merging markets?

Speaker 8

Well, you know, I think one of the things that is particularly interesting about em is that is those countries that are you know, that have tried every bad idea in the you know, in the book, and they run out options. And that's what we call a significant turning point, and that can be driven by just hitting the wall,

can be driven by a change in administration. Argentina is a good example right now of a country it could well come out from a couple of decades of bad management to a better UH, to a better environment and it's you know, it's still relatively So how.

Speaker 2

Are your positioned for Argentina, for example, because that what really was in the news most.

Speaker 8

Recently, we are We're overweight Argentina pretty significantly. We have a strong, you know, em Latin America strategist who's been he's Argentine and he's and he suffers from from a negative bias, but he's been very positive about Argentina and the and the outlook under the new administration.

Speaker 4

You look at some of the data under Bloomberg Intelligence, so Gina Martin's Adams team, they're looking more at what happens with the equity side of things, but especially looking at how emerging markets are definitely prime to lead when they're looking at some of their global counterparts, just because, especially from an earnings perspective, they have gotten hit hard

in the past few years. How do you view that going into next year when you're looking at emerging markets versus other countries globally.

Speaker 8

Well, I think EAM went into a downturn a little earlier than the developed world, and they're coming out a little earlier. They started to increase rates really a year before before the developed world, and they're in Latin America and in Central and Eastern Europe rates are coming down. We expect that to broaden out over the course of twenty twenty four inflation is coming down faster than it

is in the developed world. So right now you have about a third of countries that have services inflation pre pandemic levels and two thirds goods inflation pre pandemic levels.

Speaker 2

So you mentioned Central and Eastern Europe, and of course a lot of geopolitical risks there that you and other merging markets folks have to deal with. How do you think about that part of the world here? Is it just too risky given what's happening in Ukraine.

Speaker 8

No, we're we are neutral the region overall. Obviously E three. We've taken our way in Poland, which also is going through a transition, a government transition, which could be positive, and we're less excited about some of the other countries in the region which are going in our view and slightly in the wrong direction.

Speaker 4

There's been so much debate about the Federal Reserve potentially having to maintain a hockey stanch, even on the back of what we obviously heard from FED share pal last week and these FED officials that have been coming out leaving the door open to those potential rate cuts in the second half of next year. But when you're looking

from a global perspective. Do you see anything, even in particular with emerging markets or anything going on with inflation that you really feel like is a risk and could end up sparking potentially further downside risk to the global economy that maybe investors are underestimating.

Speaker 8

I think the biggest risk on the inflation side is really commodity prices and conflict that generate higher commodity prices. Ukraine Russia. Ukraine obviously shot food prices up substantially, that's come down a little bit since then, and on the conflict in the Middle East has yet to have a major impact on oil prices. But those are two major risks, and oil and food or very heavy weight in them inflation basket close to fifty percent. So those I think will be the bigger the big risk.

Speaker 2

Where you what areas or situations are you guys avoiding the most? Where's your highest conviction of Like, we just cannot be in this part of the world.

Speaker 8

Well, we were pretty much in all parts of the world. Okay, turns out right now we're overweight Latin America and we're overweight UH SUPs of here in Africa, We're we're equal weight in in in UH CEE and also in the Middle East, and we're way underweight in Asia. We find that less interesting. Underweight underweight in Asia, we find it less interesting at this point just just in terms of UH in terms of rates are lower, they have less,

you know, less duration opportunities there as well. So our big positions in UH in Asia are Indonesia UH India in corporates in the dollar side, India on the local currency side because of its inclusion in the index going forward, and Korea also on the local currency side in expectation for a better external environment and also possibly being included in the WIGBI.

Speaker 4

We only have about twenty seconds left. But what's the top question you get from your clients?

Speaker 8

Well, interesting enough, we now get one of our top questions is when do we get involved? If you look at the technicals, we've lost something like one hundred and fifteen billion outflows since the beginning of twenty twenty two, So there's most people in our in my seat are either neutral or underweight, and there's very little tourist capital in our markets. So I think the technicals are really supportive going forward. And in terms of issuance, we expect issuance to be largely ig.

Speaker 2

Okay, very good, pennyfully thank you so much for joining us. Pennyfullies and managing director and Meerger Markets for TCW.

Speaker 5

You're listening to the tape Can's our line program, Bloomberg Markets weekdays at ten am Easter on Bloomberg Radio, the tune in app, Bloomberg dot Com, and the Bloomberg Business app. You can also listen live on Amazon Alexa from our flagship New York station Just Say Alexa playing Bloomberg eleven thirty.

Speaker 2

You know, I've been long saying that she seems to me for the next generation, one of the really big growth stories is going to be cybersecurity. Yes, I mean, you can't go wrong there. Everybody's got to spend money to, you know, protect their their their networks. I'm looking at Palo Alto Networks here stock. It's a ninety seven billion dollar market cap stock. I guess the market agrees with my assessment. Stocks up one hundred and twenty percent. So

Wendy Whitmore joins us. She's the senior vice president, head of the cybersecurity team of Palo Alto Networks, and but her highlight of her resume, she's on Duke University, Master of Engineering and Cybersecurity Industry Advisory Board. That's a mouthful, but anybody who's associated with Duke can stay Wendy, Can you tell us what Unit forty two.

Speaker 9

Is absolutely so great to be here. Unit forty two is really the eyes and ears on the ground for all of Palo Optove network. So we are the special form forces unit, if you will, that really responds on

the ground to all of our clients' situations. So oftentimes that's helping them in their worst day, everything from responding to breaches, to doing the research and analysis on the front end to understand what cyber attackers are doing and then threat hunting on nodes throughout the world to identify the latest and greatest attack patterns.

Speaker 4

Well, there were a number of big cyber attacks this year alone. Why do you think this is and Woolsey continue to.

Speaker 9

Escalate They unfortunately, they absolutely will continue. I think we're you mentioned it. You know, cyber is really the story in terms of a major industry moving forward. The reality is right now there's a lot of money to be made by attackers in the space. So what's happened is we have major geopolitical activity going on throughout the world right every region from Amia to certainly in the Asia

Pacific Rim as well. And so when you have that occurring, you oftentimes behind the scenes have nation state actors continuing to propagate activity even more. And so we're seeing that. What we're also seeing though, is a combination of cyber criminals becoming more sophisticated. Again, this relates to money being made and the reality that there's a lot of money

to be made in this space. But cyber criminals in particular really understand how businesses operate, their level of interconnectivity between B to B type of markets, and they're taking advantage of that as we speak.

Speaker 2

So, you know, in twenty twenty three, one of the investing drivers here was AI artificial intelligence, and I just first time I kind of heard that, I was like, oh boy, put AI together with criminals? Where how bad can this get? So, how do you guys appallo out to networks when you talk to your clients, how do you out AI as an opportunity but as also a risk?

Speaker 9

Absolutely? So I think with any new advancement in technology, there are pros and there are cons. On the pro side, we have leveraged AI in particular precision AI as well as machine learning to advance our technologies and detect these attacks. And that's been going on for years, but what we've seen over the past year in particular is the advancement of generative AI, and that is obviously enabling a lot more effective human communications and that's everything from Britain to

verbal and in some cases video. So we think from a defender perspective, there is a whole lot of great things that we can leverage from AI, and we're doing that today to advance our analysis, to make sure that we're leveraging our human resources for the most difficult problems and automating as much as possible on the front end for our machines to solve that said, the attackers are

also doing something similarly. What we're seeing today is their use of heavy reliance on the communications piece, so whether that's in crafting spear phishing emails or communications on the written side, or in some cases whether that's impersonating verbal communications to circumvent employee identity verification so that they can break into an environment. We're seeing a full spectrum.

Speaker 4

Talk to us about this new SEC ruling and how it relates to cybersecurity.

Speaker 9

Well, so we're seeing increased regulation across the board, right, So what we're looking at from the SEC is an emphasis for reporting from individual organizations. I think the challenges are in terms of timeframes oftentimes you know the least and not oftentimes always you know, you know the least at the beginning of an investigation, and so those first forty eight to seventy two hours to weeks are really where we're identifying a lot of information, and it can

be very dynamic, right, it is changing constantly. One thing that I think we're seeing that's really interesting coming from the SEC notification is the fact that attackers have now and again we're talking about cyber criminals, not nation state actors at least not yet, but cyber criminals saying well, hey, I'm going to use this to my advantage, and if I compromise an organization and they didn't report it yet, I'm going to let the SEC know and I'm going

to follow a disclosure notification myself, which is causing you know, obviously even more headache around the notification challenges.

Speaker 2

We do we know what percentage of cybercrime is by individuals. A couple of knuckleheads in the garage versus US, you know, nation states.

Speaker 9

But you know, that's a great question. I'm not sure anyone can answer that completely comprehensively. But I would say a significant amount of the activity, certainly that we see and that our competitorcy is focused on nation state. The difference there is that it often you know, really runs under the scenes.

Speaker 8

Right.

Speaker 9

It's not something where these attackers are stealing information and data and then sharing it publicly, right, they are providing it to some sort of analytical capability on the back end so that they can identify information, usually targeted against a political objective. That's very different than when you have a cyber criminal who's looking to cause disruption to business.

Speaker 4

Right.

Speaker 9

We're seeing that today with disruption to retailers, you know, on their busiest period trying to satisfy orders before the holiday season. And you know we see that over the past few months. You saw disruption in Las Vegas in terms of operational impact. People can't check into hotel rooms, they can't place bets, right, So we see really two different objectives there.

Speaker 2

All right, Wendy, thank you so much for joining us. Fascinating stuff. And again, if you think back to the movie The Graduate Plastics as being the future cybersecurity. I think it's the future here. Wendy Widmore, senior vice president and headed the cyber security team at Palo Alto Network. Do you think she gets some like panic phone calls in the middle of the night. You think that happens from clients, I would imagine.

Speaker 1

Thanks for listening to the Bloomberg Markets podcasts. You can subscribe and listen to interviews at Apple Podcasts or whatever podcast platform you prefer. I'm Matt Miller. I'm on Twitter at Matt Miller nineteen seventy three.

Speaker 2

And I'm fall Sweeney. I'm on Twitter at pt Sweeney. Before the podcast. You can always catch us worldwide at Bloomberg Radio.

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