Supreme Court to Hear TikTok Challenge

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Matt shutting home.

He joins us here covers all the litigation for the media, telecoms space for Bloomberg Intelligence and Nathan Deane senior policy channels to Bloomberg Intelligence, both here in New York City. Matt, let's start with you. I was surprised to see that headline that the Supreme Court will hear the TikTok challenge to the US ban. Give us your thoughts.

This is amazingly fast for the US Supreme Court. At this point, only TikTok had filed a single brief, just filing an application. Usually there's a process before the court grants review. None of that happened here. The Court immediately entered in order, saying, Okay, the deadline is January nineteenth. We'll hear argument nine days before that January tenth. We grant reviewed just on the stay, not just on the pause of the law. We grant review on the whole case.

So what do you make of that?

I mean it's a good thing.

I think it's a positive sign for TikTok that the superme why was it so fast?

What does that tell us about something?

I think the Supreme Court sees a very serious legal issue that needs to be resolved quickly. You have the President weighing in on this question and a deadline that's looming January nineteenth of whether the ban is going to take effect or not. So I think the Supreme Court said we need to take this, we need to take it fast. I don't think it necessarily means that TikTok will prevail, though. I continue to think TikTok probably has an uphill battle in persuading the justices that it's correct

To the justices.

Now in January, January tenth, they will present their argument. How long do you think the Supreme Court will take to then.

Rule on it?

Presumably before the nineteenth All of this is very unusual for the Supreme Court. We are in strange territory here, so I can't look at my statistics from all the other cases. I do think the Court is going to try to address this by January nineteenth. What they could do is say, look, will lease you an administrative stay to delay that January nineteenth deadline until we rule. But

Wow, I don't think I've ever ever heard of this for a court that moves quickly, that's Supreme This is.

Like truly shocking.

It's unfair question, but like what's your best guess, like knowing who's on the court, where they think, and how they think about the First Amendment.

Yeah, So I continue to think TikTok faces an uphill battle with this Supreme Court when you look at how the DC Circuit decided this on a unanimous basis, where two of the three judges were Republican appointed, and now you take that same decision to this Supreme Court. This Supreme Court tends to nod its head in agreement with the rulings of Naomi Rau and Douglas Ginsburg who decided this case in overwhelming fashion against TikTok. So does it

Yep.

All right, Matt, thank you so much for coming in the last second here on this breaking news Matt Shelton Helmy covers all the litigation across the Median telecommon industry, which is a highly regulated set of industries.

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All right, it's D Day, so therefore we have the expert on to give her take on what's going to happen. Danielle de Martino Booth, the CEO and chief strategistict QI Research, and she joins us now live.

All right, so what are the key points that you're looking for?

So I'm going to be looking to see how measured Powell's comments are and how enthusiastic or not he is about the economy. I'm not so sure that we're going to see as much bravado as.

We've seen lately.

The last time he was at the podium preceded the latest release of the quarterly Senses of Employment in Wages, which took down wage growth quite a bit. The last time we made a dot plot in September, Powells said the Fed is mentally adjusting payroll numbers.

Based on QCW.

I'm reading at Bloomberg headline there, and now we know from the Philadelphia Fed after they crunched through the numbers just degrees with Anna Wong's analysis, actually that pay losses started in the second quarter of twenty twenty four.

We're in the weeds here. This is kind of our cane stuff.

However, if the FED is going to be attentive to what the Cleveland Fed is presenting, they expect shelter inflation to decline from five percent. That process has already begun to two percent year over year by the end of twenty twenty five. If you pile on the fact that it looks like payroll losses began in the second quarter of twenty twenty four, these are elements that are going to have been incorporated into many, many presentations around that

The GDP is the last to reflect these.

But if we know we're losing jobs as of April of twenty twenty for the fed's talking about it.

So that would suggest to me your commentary that you would think the Fed would be cutting into twenty twenty five, because I think the market's been moving away from that.

A little bit.

The market has been moving away.

Bond traders have been moving in the opposite direction as Bloomberg's been reporting here over the last twenty four hours or so, And I think that he is going I think Powell is going to really lean on we are data dependent. Even with the positive revisions that we saw come out of the latest non farm pay report, we still had private job losses in the month of October, despite the comeback that we saw after the Boeing strike. Of course, those Boeing workers are all being let go

We saw backlogs.

In S and P Global manufacturing in disees really fall to their lowest level. Backlogs their a gauge of future demand. That means that there's going to be more layoffs in.

The coming year.

The industrial recession is definitely starting to bleed into the service's economy. We saw that with yesterday morning's New York Services survey.

Sir, I thought the services were really good.

What I'm missing the headline SMP Global Services was good, but if you look again, I refer back to the QCEW. What SMP Global does not include in their services, which is what ISM does, is construction, retail, mining, and wholesale sales so once you cut those four critical cyclical sectors out, you understand that you really are looking at apples and oranges when you compare SMP Global.

Services to the United States.

To what ism is, which is a much more holistic read, and it's been appreciably weaker, especially.

On that employment side.

But again, where have we seen weakness in services? That would be construction, that would be retail.

Dot pots, we get some dots, dock dots go for Bloomberg terminal users out there. I can see where the dot pots, the dots are actually plotting out over the next several periods. What should we look for there?

Well, I'll be looking for whether or not we're going to stay at an anticipated potential for rate cuts in twenty twenty five.

Of course, the question is going.

To be or there's going to be front loaded or are they going to be trickled out across the year one per every meeting with the summary of economic projections, or will we see something possibly by January twenty ninth.

What I'm trying to understand is what would be a good result for the market, so and how do we categorize that? So like what decision today or what dot plot gives us. I don't know a higher equity market gives us lower yields.

If we call that a win.

I don't know that we necessarily call it a win if we walk away after Powell's pressed this afternoon and say, maybe they are.

Going to be lowering rates at the end of January.

So it's a kind of like, oh, data is not so great. Therefore they're actually going to have to cut more than now we were thinking. So it's like a catch twenty Now it pretty.

Much is what the market has priced in is all of a sixteen percent probability for that for another twenty five basis point.

Cut at the end of January.

I think to the extent that Powell is reticent to talk about things like tariffs, things like the national debt, which.

He has not wanted, he wanted he won't.

But given the twenty eighteen twenty nineteen playbook, we know that that inflation didn't show up for a good twelve months, and that incoming Treasury Secretary Scott Bessentt has said he wants to go more slowly than the first than Trump one point oh tariffs in terms of how they're pushed into the economy There's so.

Many things that remain to be seen, and you.

Can never tell whether or not it's bestent we can take for his word or not, because you just need a hot mic, you know, and a Trump.

Yeah, that's how it could go. Daniel, thank you so much for joining us. Daniel di Martino Booth, she's the CEO and chief strategist at QI Research. Joining us here in our Bloomberg Inarrector Brokers TD.

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There's a ton of car news, so we wanted to dive into that a little bit more. We just had a headline the Cross that California gas car ban actually wins Biden's blessing, which really sets California up in a clash with President alike Donald Trump. California has rules that require the sale of zero mission vehicles and ultimately ban the sale of ice cars by twenty thirty five. At the same time, we've a possible tie up from Honda and Nissan, a tremendous earthquake that we heard really throughout

Takeaway on this?

Wow, I'm not too surprised that this is happening, you know, given the seismic shifts in the auto industry in the last five years, with you know, these startups Tesla, Riva and Lucik coming on board here locally in the US and globally, and then you have you know, the eight hundred pound gorilla, the Chinese automakers, you know, really growing fast,

Would this be enough, Steve, for the combined company to compete on a global scale.

It's it's tough to say.

I think initial thought is no, because you know, Nissan over the past few years have really cut back the number of models in the market place. They are over capacitized. There's a lot of work that needs to be done. So I'm not sure if it really helps Honda UH in this type of merger. You know, I think the till is towards you know, it could be a drag to Honda.

Well, that was my question, is that I was reading that there might not be a ton of synergies in this that it's just really all about scale. So can this scale be enough to offset that lack of synergy?

Well, I think that's the UH. I think that's it's going to be the ongoing trend, and every automaker and supplier as well will have to kind of revisit their long term strategy because, you know, you were saying earlier California is actually moving away or more moving towards all electric. You know, automakers and suppliers are continuably being face or

So they're going to have.

To revisit how they're gonna, you know, and make those investments going forward.

Stee, how much do the Japanese awnomakers have to compete against China? It just feels like it would be more than maybe the US awnmakers do.

I think so because if you look at the Japanese automakers, they're really prevalent in emerging markets. Toyota is all of the place, Honda and Nissan as well, They really those cars. Japanese cars were considered low costs, so they resonate within emerging markets. And that's where the Chinese automakers are actually entering. The smaller markets in South America, Southeast Asia, Eastern Europe really challenging head to head with the Japanese automakers as well as the South Korean automakers.

Really good stuff, Steve. There's just so much to break down through all of this. Appreciate it. Steve Man joining US senior aunors reporter for Bloomberg Intelligence.

I should say analysts, not reporter.

My bad.

And there's the foxcom thing like Boss come aunts in it's so confusing.

Well, think about Japan, which I learned early in my career, is there's a lot of cross investment between companies that you know, if they're out of industry, just different. I think it's just I can't remember the reason for it other than we're all in it together, and let's have close relationships between.

Companies and management teams, and you know that type of.

You're listening to the Bloomberg Intelligence Podcast. Catch us live weekdays at ten am Eastern on Apple Card playing Android otto with the Bloomberg Business App. Listen on demand wherever you get your podcasts, or watch us live on YouTube.

All right, joining us the man He is fantastic. He knows the things about everything, his opinions on everything, and really good insight.

And he's the kind of guy where you only you don't hear what he says.

Anywhere else, and that's really special in this kind of business. Peter, Chair of Academy Securities, is joining us in studio. Peter, how are you going to be reading the FED today and then the market reaction to the Fed today? What's going to be your takeaway come tomorrow?

You know, I'm really expecting a fairly hockey FED. I think they are a little bit worried about the economy, but it's not showing up in the data, so I think they're going to have to come across. Hey, we're potentially on hold. We've done one hundred bases points. Let's see where this plays out. I think that will disappoint the market a little bit, only because we are up so high since the election. Everything's run. I think people got very comfortable rates are coming down. I think that stops.

Where where do they take the terminal rate?

And does that move closer to four percent, which would signal that, yes, they are very close to being done.

If the Fed is going to be slower than expected in lowering rates, if not coming to a pause here for maybe all of twenty twenty five, Can a stock marker work in that environment?

I think so.

I think the stock market has really moved on to what is Trump going to do? What's joje you going to do? Where do we head from there? And I think there's a lot of op I think, you know, once you move past some of the fears about terrorists, which I think people have kind of fallen into this maybe a bit of a false sense of scurity right now that they're negotiating points. I think this is really going to be about can he do something about the

So to that point, do we need to rethink a reaction function to the FED when we don't know what those policies are going to be?

Yeah, so I think the Fed's actually the reaction is probably going to be.

Fairly mooted one way or the other. Day, Like we'll get a bit of movement.

We always take the bite anything that has to do with DC, right, and.

He's going to you know, we have to wait and see.

And again, I think, as the last guests just point out, we don't know what's actually going to get implemented day one or day two or day three, what's going to be a priority, what falls through the cracks. You know, when I look at it, I think immigration. They're going to go after some highly visible targets that probably most people are in favor of. I think you've already seen

So I think that'll be fine.

I think in terms of energy, he's going to start enforcing some of the sanctions against both Russia and Iran, partly to force them to some sort of peace deal, also to support our own energy industry, and from there, we'll just see what he comes up.

When he comes up with, yeah, that'll be interesting. It always is, those us in the news business.

Yeah, keeps us on our toes.

Okay, so what do you do? So what do you like?

So we're looking at the risk of higher yields over next year. I'm reading between your lines. We're still talking about that bad breath in the market and the leaders from the Nasdaq one hundred, what do you do?

So I really like him, you know, they've been selling off again, But I do like all the commodity players, all the industries that enable commodity. I really think there's going to be this massive push for some sort of you know, let's call it security broadly, where we need to produce and refine our own rare earth critical minerals and energy. So I think we talked about energy. So I don't think it's really going to be good for the commodity prices because I think you're going to see

And never followed through.

So if there is a deal this time, and I assume there will be one, watch for AG to really benefit, right, he is really going to force g to buy it and deliver on that purchases this time.

So I think again that whole industry. So I look at all.

The heavy equipment manufacturers. They should do really well in that environment, and they still trade cheap, right AI. Some of these others may do very well, but they trade very expensive. This to me, it feels like it's going to have to catch that momentum and you're gonna have to get that inflow. But if you get those inflows, there's a lot room for these stocks to run.

Just asking for a friend here, what do you think about the energy space here? Because if we're drilling or refining or whatever, I think that's good for the energy space, but maybe it could not be.

Great for prices. That's it.

I think it's not going to be great for prices, so that'll be a slight impediment to real growth. But on the other hand, I think he's going to reopen up our ability to export, right, He's going to create

Yeah, and then to that point, I mean, that's kind of what we saw today that the idea will actually reporting from Bloomberg is the idea that they're going to roll back the EV incentives, but they're going to put more money and stuff in those one hundred days into creating the nuts and bolts of how to make those EV cars, like critical.

Minerals and stuff like that. So that's exactly to your point.

Yeah, And the one thing I think we all forget I have to remind myself too, is producing and ref finding commodities is commodity intensive. Right as we build this out, you need steel, you need pipes, you need roads, so it's all very commodity intensive. So that will support the price of commodities as we build this out. And I just don't see any reason Trump won't push for this. I think it's good from a national security standpoint, and it's the sort of thing he likes doing, right. He

Also, this is like perfect from Usk, Like if you create a factory that you can source all your critical batteries for Tesla, cool, I mean that's what he's been trying to do anyway when it comes to Tesla.

Yeah, and just even from a military standpoint, the amount you know they had to rip out. I think a lot of the wawey chips that were in our military equipment, right, but some of the raw you know, the rarest critical minerals will refined products are coming from China. Why the person that we're having the most degree of friction and potentially at most risk with down the road, you would not be wanting anything that goes into your military equipment

Do we have those rare earths in the minerals and the stuff we need for electric bad? Do we even have that here in the US? I thought there were in other parts of the world.

There actually are a lot in the US.

So I think you're one of the as government's built out someone we've got rid of the Bureau of Mines. We have not been big at mining things.

You know.

One story we've heard that seems pretty interesting is where there are a lot of is the fracking was done, the water that stays in the ground has actually been absorbing lithium, and so you can extract that water from the evaporate and get lithium. And that's actually probably the most efficient.

Way to do it.

So there are all these opportunities, but I do think the big thing is going to be the refining. So I think, to me, right, there are other places in the world we can get the resources themselves from, but how do you refine them. We have to take that responsibility on ourselves, and I think the process has never been green. But the reality is if you let China do it all, it's not green. It's probably not even as green as they say it is. So take that

Yeah, so smart.

Also, remember we used to book Peter as the bond guy and like, look at how far you've come, So let's talk about bonds.

Though, what do you think we're going to see on the tenure?

And I asked that because he ro price that we could see five percent in the first quarter of next year and then six percent next year.

You think you're going to get a hankish bed anyway, and.

There's going to be all this investment that we're talking about and going through which could be lead to a lot more and growth.

I'm not quite that bear, So I think we should be around four forty to four sixty on tens. I think, you know, post election, everyone got two barriers, so that was an easy call. We got the retlacement back down to you know, four fifteen. I've been baryed since then. I want to see I think coming into year end four forty four sixty, I think there's a much bigger risk of a gap fifty bits higher than a gap fifty bits lower. I think we've had those moves, and I could see us getting a five.

Percent next year.

I struggle with six percent, and I just don't think the economy is going to be that good. I think enough people pile into duration at that five percent level. So and we've kind of for the last two years been making lower highs on yields. Every time we sell off. It's not quite as bad as it was before. So I think i'd probably unless something dramatically changes, I'd be a big buyer of tens if we got to five.

Credit risks taking any credit risk out there.

Yeah, we've been slowing down. I thought credit was great, we've loved it. Since June, I'm kind of more neutral on it. Part of what I saw I think that was really positive was a lot of banks and not lent enough during these post Silicon Valley bank so they were chasing money.

Private credit was.

Getting a lot of money, so all this was coming into the markets. So I've liked credit, and I think we're okay there. But I do think, you know, if the economy slows a bit, some parts might do less bad. A lot of thing was very dependent on getting you know, lower floating rates. I don't think we're going to get that to happen as much. So I'm like neutralish. I don't see anything wrong with credit. The one thing I will say is I find myself fighting with people on

Yep, very good, Peter, another great performance. Thank you so much. We appreciate it.

Peter Chair.

He's had a macro strategy at Academy Securities and Academy Securities for those of you who don't know the founders military so a lot of the leadership and the ownership of Academy Securities is ex United States Military, So good folks over there, and we appreciate getting some of Peter's time.

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