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One of the names really in the news today for not the good reasons is super Micro Computer.
It's order to resign. That's not good.
The stock's all thirty percent on that news. Let's break down what's going over there, because this was a high flying AI type stock that peaked about one hundred and eighty dollars a share back in March.
Yeah, it added to the s and P five hundred back in March, right, so.
Right at the all time Hi, but boy down at thirty four dollars I share it now. Wu Jinhoge joins us. He's a senior technology analyst for Bloomberg Intelligence. He's sat in our Princeton, New Jersey office. Which what happened today over at super micro Computer?
Yeah, so thanks Paul. Look, there's been some filing delays at super Micro, some differences of opinion in terms of the auditor and the management team and Essentially, the uh, the uditor resigned due to quote unquote integrity issues with the management team there.
And and this isn't like Joe's CPAs. This is this is a big deal resigning and.
This does not happen often at all. So what's Ernst and Young saying about why they resigned, Well, you know, in the.
AK filing, essentially Ernest and Young is saying that there were some differences of opinion and they didn't think that there was enough transparency from the auditor committee as well as integrity issues from the auditor committee. So look, quite quite frankly, it's the first time I've ever seen language
like that. And the other thing that I can state is that, you know, Ersten Young is the second auditor that super Micro had in the span of eighteen months, so they were supposed to clean up the issues from the prior orditor, and it sounds like they found issues that just couldn't be resolved.
And of course the resignation comes after news broke last month that the DOJ had launched a probe into an ex employee's claims that super Micro actually valulated accounting rules. What do we know so far about how many different issues there are kind of more broadly when it comes to this company.
Yeah, so.
Not much news has come out of the DOJ probe, but it is bringing up some older issues that caused their delisting roughly three or four years back. Essentially, they were very aggressive on their accounting side, and it seems as if, based on a short report that came out in July, it seems as if they went back to their old ways in the recent months, in recent quarters.
Well, which just as an outside observer here, I see a story like this and I say, we need change at the board level, and I need change in the c suite level. Are you hearing calls from some of their shareholders for some types of moves like that.
Well, that's how we tidled. Are we react report? It's like, look, super Micro needs more than an orditor to change to fix this, and we were concerned about their corporate governance. If you keep in mind that there aren't many independent board members, one of whom includes the wife of the CEO, there really needs to be a lot more independence on
the board. And quite frankly, given the now growing concerns of financial mofeasings, I think the CFO has to go and you know, if they can't clean this up, there might be a need for a change at the top.
Paul mentioned the stocks being that we've been seeing in it so far today down over thirty percent on Paceports, worst day since October of twenty eighteen. From a technical perspective, how much more pain do you think there is to run here?
Well, the question is is, you know, are the revenues real? I do think that the revenues are real. I don't know how real the profitability may be, right because there are multiple ways to probably manipulate the numbers. The one thing that we wrote is that you know, the near term deals are probably intact because it's really tough to change switch vendors for an AI deal. But longer term there are going to be downs in terms of water activity.
I'm working with super micro, so it's going to be the future outlook going forward that that could be at risk and could drive the stock going forward.
All right, well, just thanks so much for joining us.
Woujin Hoo, he's a senior technology channels for Bloomberg Intelligence. He's based on there in our Princeton office. Again, the stock off thirty percent today. S MCI is the ticker. Despite that, it's still up about twenty percent on the year. Yeah, it's got a market cap right now, just about twenty billion dollars. But again, this thing back in March of this year was one hundred and eighty.
Dollars, right.
It had been the best performing stock in the S and P five hundred at one point for the year, even outpacing in videos earnings. But then once you see these big declines, obviously not anymore.
And Wujin saying that this is the second auditor they had in eighteen months, I think tells you all you need to know here. It's just it kind of goes to a credibility of their reported financial results. And if as an investor, if you don't feel comfortable with, you know, the financial results, Yeah, it's tough to put evaluation on that. I think that's kind of what we're seeing today. We're seeing that move again, a seventy percent, seven zero percent
move off of that March high. So again the market kind of voting with its feet.
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We had some of the big European banks started reporting. UBS came out with.
Some better than expected numbers, but management, I think, you know, they're saying, hey, there's some risks out there, so kind of tempering the outlook a little bit. So let's break it down with Alison Williams. She is the senior bank sannels for Bloomberg Intelligence. So Allison, I mean, you know, of the big European banks, UBS is the one I think a lot of people focus on because they have such a big presence here in the US. What did you see coming out of UBS and kind of what's their outlook?
So a really strong quarter. Fundamentals look good. I think there are some concerns about capital and that might be weighing on the shriffes today. But you know, to your point, people look at their business. Sixty percent growth in their America's trading business, so so wow is the word. It was a record trading, record third quarter trading for them.
Keep in mind that third quarter tends to be weak, so but it was that it was the strongest third quarter they've ever had, and that was really due to cash equities and derivatives strengths of the bank. So twenty seven percent growth really looking good and a lot of
momentum coming into the fourth quarter. The other positive for UBS, you know, that core wealth franchise is really what sets them apart, and they did have very strong flows inflows across all the regions, especially Asia, so that's also very good. And then on the deal execution side, we also like what we're seeing there in terms of their cost progress.
You know, the grossed cost saves are over fifty percent the way there, so that's a positive the non core unit, so that's you know, stuff they want to get rid of. They're making cuts there faster than expected. But capital, as I said, that was the one thing I think, you know, investors are still a little bit skittish on. They did actually take a cut to their capital ratio in the quarter basically because they voluntarily are kind of giving up
some accounting relief. So you know, I think that that's you know, that's accounting is sort of just noise in my view. But they did say that, you know, they're not sure if when they report the fourth quarter of February if they're going to be able to give guidance on buybacks. And that's because you know, while they're executing on this deal, fundamentally regulators, you know, are concerned about the size and they may force them to hold more capital.
Looking over at UBS's stock right now, down about three point six percent on pace, sports worst day since August. Second, of course, you were talking about obviously capital, but there was also a lack of any further guidance from executives on that analyst cause, well, so how much does that also wing on the stock at this point?
Allison, Well, I think it really is the lack of guidance on capital to your point that that is weighing, because you know, if they basically they restarted their buyback.
You know, in the first half, but people are very focused on the prospects for capital return and I think the fact that you know, not only did they not give guidance, but they said they might not be able to give guidance in February is the concern.
So hel representatives you b s UBS of kind of some of the other European banks, Allison.
So it's interesting that you know, Ubans versus the other bank. They are more skewed to the equities business. They do have a very strong US presence, as you said, they also tend to be strong in Asia, and we really saw a lot of strength their late quarter that benefited, you know, the companies such as JP Morgan and Morgan Stanley.
So Deutsche Bank does.
Not have the equities business, but they were very strong in stick and we'll see what happens with you know, BNP and zctin are the next ones to come, so they might not get that same lift that UBS saw from their kind of unique footprint. But generally we did hear about strength across regions of cross cash and derivatives, and derivatives is a strength for those two French bands, and so we think that we could see some strength there tomorrow.
All right, Alison, thank you so much for joining us.
As always, Alison Williams, she's a senior banks analyst for Bloomberg Intelligence globally. Full disclosure, I am a client of UBS. Or shout out to Tonyo C and the boys.
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Again, look at that Eli Lilly story. It stops down five percent, so it's well off. It's in traud de Loso's off about eleven or twelve percent earlier. But guess what, it's up forty seven percent year to date. So this one's had a nice run. It's got an eight hundred billion dollar market cap. Clearly a little bit of a
miss here today. Let's break it down with somebody who knows Eli Lillly belderan anybody out there at Sam Fazeli, director of research for Global indust and a senior pharmaceuticals analyst. They go to Voice in the City of London if you want to talk about this healthcare stuff, and if you want to talk wine. He's also probably better adapted that. So, Sam Eli Lilly, I know you're you know this company really well? What did they disclose today and the results and why is the stock selling off?
Yeah?
So hi Paul, nice to see you all again. I'm looking at the screen. You know, as as you guys said earlier, it had been down like thirteen and a half, fourteen, fifteen percent and now it's kind of coming back. The call has just finished, the Q three call, and I'll just break it down quickly for you. When they reported we got a miss, right, and I'm looking at it right now, they missed by six percent on revenue.
That is not what you do when you're a.
Sixty pe company, right, It just it doesn't ide is the world's not forgiving enough of that. And by the way, those burritas, you're talking about seven hundred and eighty five calories for an average burreto. Wow, So if you want to help you like Lily, you have three of those a day.
Yeah.
No, So so just breaking that down further that this was two drugs on jar O and zep bound and those are the drugs that everybody talks about. This is the the obesity drugs that are.
On the market. They missed.
Why did they miss The company said that it's because there was an inventory d stocking going on at some wholesalers. So people go, wait a minute, you saying to me that demand cannot be satisfied, supply were supply limited, So why is there an inventory issue in the middle here? And of course that's what led to the question of oh my god, are we overestimating demand?
Here?
Is the company overestimated it? Why it's the world over estimating demand? So why have we come back from five percent? Simple answer. It sounds like with the twelve different forms of the drugs that they have that no one in this early launch phase we can call it early launch, right, given that it's been a couple of years, is really a to manage and work out what they need to have as inventory, because in such a massive product, you're going to have an impact on working capital, even for
the wholesalers. It sounds like that that's the issue that even Lily themselves can't necessarily forecast here, right, I mean the actual details of how much of each product has made.
If that's true then and I think you get a little with of that in the fact that Folier guidance wasn't dropped by as much as the miss that at least currently they are optimistic about picking a whole bunch of that back up in the Q four that you should not worry about demand you talk to any doctor you want, do they say, oh, I have no patience left to asking before he set bound or we go viaor whatever.
So I think that's what's.
Happening here the difficulty in managing and thinking about how to manage your inventory.
Something I wanted to pick your brain about was when it comes to knockoffs, because we saw a huge drop in hymns and hers earlier this month. So they were so they previously were allowed to manufacture copycap drugs when they're deemed in short supplied by the FDA, But the FDA at that time said when it came to zetbound and Manjarro, specifically for Eli Lily, they weren't shortage anymore. So that's why you saw that drop there. But they
still when it came to a zempic and Wegovi. When you think about Novo Nordisk, they were still able to offer compounded version actually versions of those. So I'm wondering, when you think about Eli Lily versus what's happening with Novo Nordists, how does that kind of come into play when you're thinking about when it comes to sort of the knockoffs and the copycat type drugs.
Yeah.
Sure, I mean I'm not even sure that people have stopped making compounded versions of zep bound and Manjara because the FDA kind of reeled back a little bit and said, oh, we're going to actually look at this again.
So I don't think that story is finished.
I think that these folks are some folks are still able to supply those from a compounded pharmacy perspective. So you know that is that's that's a lot, that's a root that the FDA does to people. If there's a shortage of a drug and someone else can make it, well let them do it.
The interesting angle, of course, is that a whole bunch.
Of people who are taking off the compounded pharmacists are probably paying less, and therefore if they're forced to go and take it from a prescription, they may have to pay more out of pocket. So that's not going to be a leaving a particularly good taste in folks mouths once that this.
Actually happens. But it hasn't happened yet.
So and they did say on the call that this is not because there's enormous demand being fulfilled by compounded pharmacies. It's literally to do with that inventory management issue, where what are.
The companies saying sam about getting this in an oral format. I think that might be one of the next big I guess mileposts for this type of treatment.
Yeah, I remember, Paul, there's already an oral form of this. It's called Robelsus. It's from over NOTICEK. It's just a tough drug to use because you have to have it within about half an hour of eating. You can't take it too close or too far from any team because you need an empty stomach.
Before you take the drug.
And it's a big dose, and maybe the side effect profile isn't as great and the weight loss isn't as great. So people are trying to develop oral versions of these drugs, but also oral drugs that are like normal drugs, small molecules that they can swallow as a pill once today.
So that's coming.
So what do you think shareholders need to watch for next when it comes to especially after its outlook disappointed.
I think we need to see how Q four does.
So let's hope that that they're current guidance. At least they meet it, maybe beat it, that would be nice. The issue is then we move into a Q four. There's an interesting result from a click or child that's coming up. They've done this before. They're comparing zep bound with big go V, and I suspect that they're hoping and that that data suggests that they might. They will show that it has better weight loss. Whether the side effect profile will be better or different, time will tell.
But that's there are not many farmer companies do these type of excuse me, head to head trials because that takes some Uh yeah.
Yeah, no, I just want to get real quick.
What's the latest thinking on the size of this market?
And you guys have done a lot of work on this.
Yeah, I think I think my Key's latest numbers that are ninety three billion.
I don't remember exactly. It's big, well out of nothing exactly so, but five we have a whole load of data. Company.
Yes, is there any significant evidence that red wine is healthy for you?
I'm not going to go there because I'm at a health drug analyst, not a red wine analyst.
I just know that I enjoy a glass of two. You gotta you gotta have to remember it's also bad for you because it's cancer.
All sorts of yes, loves important.
We have to be fed a whole bunch of people listen to this. This is this is not this is not about a bottle of wine a day. Maybe a glass, but even then, I think the medical professional says be careful, but I choose to take that risk and I do love it.
We separate. Sam Fazali, thank you so much for that. Sam Fazeli's a director of research.
He also covers the pharmaceutical industry for Bloomberg. In Intelligence over in London.
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Thirty rights back in the middle of earning season.
This is the busiest week of the quarter in terms of companies market cap reporting big on last night friends.
Google, it's right of the market cap for the S and P five supporting this week right Actually busy.
Seek good quarter. I guess across the board. Ben Deep Singh joins us. He's a senior technology analyst for Bloomberg Intelligence.
Mandy.
Everybody knows Google, they know the shirt story. What did you learn last night from Google? And their results?
That you know?
Search Cloud YouTube. These are three separate businesses doing extremely well at scale, I mean double digit growth for search business is really stellar when you think of all the pressure they've been facing, you know, when it comes to new entrants like CHATGPT and Perplexity and whatnot. And everyone is of the belief that they would take at least some share from Google, at least in terms of ad revenue. Google hasn't lost any share. In fact, it's a very healthy growth at their scale.
And YouTube.
Look fifty billion plus revenue rundrate seventy thirty split between subscriptions ads is seventy and thirty percent of subscriptions, and subscriptions grew, you know, twenty eight percent. I mean, just think about fifteen billion dollar subscriptions business growing twenty eight percent. That's very impressive. And we're not even talking about Wevemo here.
So when you look at you know, all the business says they clearly have a lot going on, and Vemo is a future bet, but something that could be huge in terms of you know, top line.
You know, it's interesting you just mentioned fifty billion of runwright revenue for YouTube and advertising subscription. That sounds a lot like the cable television business, the cable network business. I look at Paramount, Paramount Global, you know, all those cable networks.
They have thirty billion of revenue.
So YouTube is significantly bigger than some of the largest advertising and subscription.
German media companies out there. Yeah, and in a dozen years, it's just extraordinary.
And Meandy, you were talking about these massive investments that Google in Alphabet, obviously the parent company has been trying to catch up to the likes of Obviously Microsoft will get another update from their earnings after the bell and of course open ai walk us through some of those investments and how they're starting to pay off.
I mean, look, in the case of Alphabet, they have huge data center investments simply because they have a giant infrastructure that's power you know, these big businesses. So there's a lot of internal consumption of these chips, but also the cloud business, which saw a nice acceleration, you know, sequential acceleration from twenty nine percent growth to thirty five percent growth. I would say a lot of that is
driven by the availability of GPUs in their cloud. So I'll be interested in seeing how much of Microsoft GPUs are being used for internal consumption versus what is being exposed on their Azure cloud. Because in my mind, Google having their own chips is making a difference in terms of their cloud growth, and that's why you saw that acceleration. But I'll have to validate that tonight.
How is AI impacting John Tuckerman's search results?
Right? I mean, just the nature of search is changing in the sense you can ask you know, a lot longer queries. The prompts can be infinite and length. You can you know, have a video or an image prompt.
It just doesn't have to be text. So that's what Google called out, that the queries are getting a lot more complex in nature, and users are actually engaging with it, so it's not as if, you know, that's driving them to some of the platform users want to use what they call multimodel search, which is a combination of texts, videos, and images and audios. So that's why these llms are so powerful because they give you that innate capability to search in whatever format you want and you can just
throw it in that search box. So that search box is getting a lot bigger and a lot more complex on that Google page.
So what do we need to watch for with Microsoft today?
I mean azure growth. I said, you know, the availability of GPUs is what is powering Google clouds acceleration. I want to see that acceleration in Microsoft's Azure growth to confirm that Microsoft is not losing share to Google or for that matter, Amazon. Lich reports on Thursday.
And tomorrow on surveillance.
Tomorrow morning, you're going to have Dan ives in studio from Red Bush Security, so he'll be doing presumably at the victory left for what.
Can't man deep dress like Dan?
I was about to bring up the what kind of bright colors?
Dan might be aware tomorrow and deep because it takes an effort here. He matches his turbine and deeps to sink for those on radio can't see.
It matches his turban with the suit every day every so that is solid. I give him for that, walking here with like a pink tie and everything.
We all know how Paul Sweety is the fashion police here. Paul fashe Sweeney.
Of Bloomberg News.
There is a dress cook the summer Fridays.
I remember, I think came in with flip flops and they had a stern warning from Paul.
We all agreed no flip flops in nor place. John, although I do have like you know, it's got the cas.
That's how his casual Tucker gets Man Deep, thank you so much. We appreciated Man Deep seeing he covers all the technology. He manages all of our technology coverage, great stuff for Bloomberg Intelligence, and obviously technology is a global business. Asia is such an important part of the technology stories in terms of not only an end market, but a source for a lot of.
That technology and manufacturing.
And we've got a big team out in Asia for Bloomberg Intelligence, and Man Deep manages all that for us.
So he's our go to person.
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Let's stick with the topic of politics. Why not because we got the election coming up on Tuesday. Here's an interesting headline in the Bloomberg terminal, how Puerto Rico became an issue in the US election. Lord davids and joins us. She's a political editor for Bloomberg News.
She's done in DC.
So, Laura, we've heard a lot about Puerto Rico in this election, just in the last week or so, can you explain to us kind of what's going on why it may be important.
Yeah, So this really kicked off over the weekend at Trump's rally at Madison Square Garden, where a comedian who was one of the kind of preview speakers before Trump came out of the stage made a joke about Puerto Rico where he called it a floating island of garbage, and that has really picked up a lot of traction.
You know, it was sort of in the mix of all a bunch of other incendiary and racist comments at this rally, but also because Puerto Ricans are a particularly important voting block, especially in Pennsylvania, and sort of you know, not directly connected to this, but it also has been a group that both Trump and Harris have had outreach too in recent days. The day that that remark was made,
Harris was at a Puerto Rican restaurant in Pennsylvania. Trump just last night was an Allentown, Pennsylvania, which has a large Latino population and in Sylvania, yet the whole has one of the largest Puerto Rican populations in the country. So this was quickly denounced by several people, you know, Puerto Ricans, but also you know Republicans that represent Florida
Senator Rick Scott for example. Even the Trump campaign came out and said, look, you know, we didn't approve this, We don't you know, support this doesn't represent our views, which is not something you see a lot from the Trump campaign.
I wanted to get your thoughts on the latest headlines that we had in the past hour about the Supreme Court allowing Virginia to purge voters before the election. Walk us through what we know so far on this and what's the precedence for something like this.
Yeah, So, at issue are about sixteen hundred voters on the Virginia roles which the state has asked to purge. They say, look, we think that these are not citizens on here, and we want to remove them. There are laws in place about you know, how close to an election you can get rid of some of these. You know, you can change the voter roles. So they petitioned the Supreme Court. The Supreme Court today's said yes, you can go ahead and remove these people from the voter rules.
You know, this is not you know, Virginia is not expected to be a swing state. Here or be decisive in the elections. Sixteen hundred is a relatively small number, but this has a lot of election security people worried that this could foretell some larger purge in a state that could potentially be decisive in either the presidential race or you know, any of the contested Senate races.
Yeah, I have to admit I haven't.
I can't recall seeing a story like this where this has actually occurred. Does this happen with any regularity across the country or is this case in Virginia particularly unique.
This is a sort of a unique thing we're seeing. You know, this is something that you know has come up in several states, you know, both you know, we've seen in Nebraska, for example, they wanted to change their rules about how they apportioned their Electoral College votes. You've seen some other states them having some some issues about this, but generally, you know, either for political reasons or for legal reasons, that they states that said, no, we can't
change things of close to elections. So this is a little bit of a surprise this morning from the Supreme Court.
So when you look at the kind of latest headlines coming through the Turnamonal Virginia canceled registrations of estimated sixteen hundred residents here. Of course, Donald Trump and Kamala Harris will criss cross several string states today, passing each other. Of course in Wisconsin when we have less than a week to go ahead of election day, what do you think is most crucial here when they're pushing through what their potential policy proposals are.
Yeah, so what they're doing now is they have generally put out all the policy proposals they have that you still have seen Trump start to outline some additional ones that he's been sort of grasping for additional votes. But they're really framing and honing in on their argument, you know, why voters should.
Vote for them.
So we saw last night with Harris on the Ellipse, she was making an argument about Trump being a danger, but you also saw her quickly pivot to talk about, you know, sort of her prescriptive view, particularly for the economy. We know that that has been one of the key issues for voters, really the top issue in this election. You've seen Trump really double down on immigration. You know, poll show that this is you know, perhaps probably the
number two issue in this race. But you know, even more so than talking about the economy, he's really been doubling down on immigration, the threat of migrants, and that's sort of why this Puerto Rican comment from over the weekend has.
Really caught fire down in Washington, d C.
Laura, what's the feeling about some of the down ballot races that are key to the control of both the House and the Senate.
Yeah, so there really is a key overlap between some of these key Senate races as well as the as sort of the battleground state. So you know, we're looking at places like Pennsylvania and Michigan and Arizona. Democrats are at a disadvantage when it comes to the Senate. They are defending a bunch of seats, you know, in places like Ohio and Montana that Trump has won and are expected to win in a couple in in next week.
The House is a little bit more of a wild card, and because those races aren't really overlapping with the electoral college map, it's really New York areas, particularly the New York City suburbs, as well as California, sort of the southern californi Ornia suburbs around San Diego and Los Angeles that will be decisive there. So that's a really close race.
It really anyone's guess is to you know which way the House flips the Senate, your Republicans have an advantage, but you know, things could all break in Democrats way if they hit every race just right.
Of course, there's a lot of discussion that we potentially might not even know the results of the election that evening, kind of similar to what we would have seen in twenty twenty. We can get the final results till that following weekend on that Saturday. What's kind of when your conversations with your sources, are they saying as far as what the timetable could be potentially when we would know the eventral results.
Here, Yeah, it's looking like this. We will not have results on election night.
It is possible, but.
A relatively remote possibility. There are several states, including Pennsylvania, that will likely end up being decisive that take a
little bit longer than average to vote. You know this, Each state has different rules about when they can start voting, particularly when they can start mail in ballots, when they can start tabulating early votes, and sort of all the different things they need to do to come to an official total, so that really very state by state, And of course we also anticipate that there might be legal challenges that could either pause the counting or stop the counting,
or you know, take time for things to work through the courts. So it's it's very likely that this will be days, potentially weeks if there are you know, several hurdles in the states, and it looks to be you know, really tight Margins.
All right, laur thank you so much for joining us. Lard Davison. She's a polittle bel editor for Bloomberg News, joining us from Washington, DC.
So again, I think that's going to be really interesting, Jessica, and probably very frustrating for a lot of people who you know, want to go to bed on election night like we used to, knowing kind of who the president is going to be.
But it could be right, it could take days again.
Yeah, and maybe perhaps even longer, and I don't know, you know, I guess that simply just reflects the fact that the electorate is so evenly divided.
Literally our college counts.
You can't be there at eight o'clock PM and call the race, right, I guess at Network news anchor, those days are over.
No, definitely, so it'll be interesting to see how things play out over.
The next week.
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