Soft Landing, EVs, and Private Credit - podcast episode cover

Soft Landing, EVs, and Private Credit

Dec 05, 202336 min
--:--
--:--
Download Metacast podcast app
Listen to this episode in Metacast mobile app
Don't just listen to podcasts. Learn from them with transcripts, summaries, and chapters for every episode. Skim, search, and bookmark insights. Learn more

Episode description

Jennifer Lee, Senior Economist and Managing Director at BMO Capital Markets, joins for a breakdown of economic data and outlook for a recession in the US. Huw van Steenis, Vice Chair and Partner at Oliver Wyman, joins to discuss his view on private credit and potential risks. Tom Ognar, Portfolio Manager at Allspring Global Investments, joins to talk about markets, sectors and stocks he likes, and investing strategies. Phil Zhou, CFO of ECARX Holdings Inc. (NASDAQ: ECX), joins to discuss the EV industry, economic pressures, and outlook for his firm. Hosted by Paul Sweeney and Jess Menton.

See omnystudio.com/listener for privacy information.

Transcript

Speaker 1

Bloomberg is now on your dashboard with Apple CarPlay and Android Auto. It gives you access to every Bloomberg podcast, live audio feeds from Bloomberg Radio, print stories from Bloomberg News in audio form, and the latest headlines of the click of a button with Bloomberg News. Now it's free with the latest version of the Bloomberg Business App. That's the Bloomberg Business App. Get it on your phone in

the Apple App Store or on Google Play. Just download the app, connect your phone to your car and get started. And it's all presented by our sponsor, Interactive Brokers.

Speaker 2

Welcome to the Bloomberg Markets Podcast. I'm Paul Sweeney alongside my co host Matt Miller.

Speaker 1

Every business day we bring you interviews from CEOs, market pros, and Bloomberg experts, along with essential market movin news.

Speaker 2

I'm the Bloomberg Markets podcast called Apple Podcasts or wherever you listen to podcasts, and at Bloomberg dot Com slash podcast. Today we had the jolts come in a little lower than expect it, So if you were job openings, ism services jess as we were talking before, came in a little bit better than forecast, better than last month. That's good, maybe fed friendly, But I don't know how to put all this together. Fortunately we have people do that for us.

One of them is Jennifer Lee. She's a senior e conmist and managing director BEIMO Capital Markets.

Speaker 3

And for the folks the kids that don't know, that's Bank.

Speaker 2

Of Montreal back in the day, BEMO Capital Market's a great firmat there in Canada. So, Jennifer, looking at the US economy, what's your take here? I mean, is it a soft landing and hard landing and no landing? What's going on out there?

Speaker 4

Good morning, and thank you very much, Cheviell, thank you for having me on.

Speaker 5

You know, I'm going to stick to what we have been saying for a long time now, which is that soft landing narrative. At least it is up until now like this morning's as you're pointing out this morning's to reports, you know, the ism was up and the jolts were down, Joppa, bricks were down. So it's it's it's but it's not down enough. We still have over one point four jobs available for every unemployed American out there. That's it's a

pretty decent jaw market overall. It's not we're not seeing you know, two jobs for every one person like we did, you know, last year. But it's still a tight labor market and it's still fairly healthy. I some services you know showing the activity is picking up the most of a couple of months. I mean, this is only the first increase in a few months, but still it shows that again, this whole soft landing narrative is still playing out, at least for now.

Speaker 6

Looking at the ECFC function in the terminal pull up, looking at where the consensus among economists that are pulled in the terminal. You can look at annually, also quarterly. If you look over quarterly, though on a basis, there's there no longer is a quarter over quarter contraction coming into this year. Originally there was a call for the second and third quarter to see contraction. We aren't seeing

that anymore. We're still seeing growth. So I'm curious your thoughts on when there still is this concern because looking at how the consensus among economists, the probability of a recession is still around fifty percent. That's pretty elevated compared to if you're looking at say other firms like Golden

Snacks that have lowered their calls in recent months. Why do you think there is still so much skepticism in gluiness out there about the trajectory of the economy when you have this chextaposed against a lot of really strong consumer spending data.

Speaker 5

I think it's it's a great question, and I'm thinking that, you know, we've never been in this sort of environment where you know, we have a central bank like the FAT that has been tightening so much in such a short amount of time. This is like a reck of the amount, and yet we're still seeing you know, a business investment. You know, it's it's has us ups and downs of course, but it's still supported by a by physical spending. And it all goes back to the US

consumer staying resilient. You know, they're not going to be spending like crazy, you know, for for you know, in twenty months, I think things have already started to dial down. But again it's that it's that job market. I think it's all goes back to having a strong job market, and that goes back to demographics, It goes back to the pandemic. What I was a little bit worried about, I will say, was when I saw the personal income

of spending data last week. With that mind that very small point one percent, which is a salary increased, and I was like, oh, that's not great, but you know, it's good in terms for the FED. It's not great for the consumer. But as long as you know, we continue to see steady job growth, continue to see steady wage gains, you know, either point one or point five or whatever, you know, I think that will be a

good support system overall for the US economy. Now, we actually pulled, by the way, our negative growth rate quite a while ago, and I'm losing track of time here in my old age, but.

Speaker 4

You know, we have, we have pulled it. And again we're sticking to that soft planning.

Speaker 5

So we've got, you know, growth slowing from that sustainable I think five point two percent growth rate in Q three down to about one percent in Q four and then flattening out a little bit around you know, the point two is or so over the next first half of next year.

Speaker 4

Jennifer talking about.

Speaker 3

Jennifer talked to us about inflation here. I don't know.

Speaker 2

I mean, for John Tucker and I it's all about filling up our cars with gasoline down at the Jersey Shore. And I just filled up for three dollars and ten cents a gallon. I feel like inflation's coming down, but I'm guessing the Fed does engage it on my gasoline intake here. But so, how do you think the FED is viewing inflation and the fight against inflation.

Speaker 4

I think it's viewing it with a very cautious outlook.

Speaker 5

And even though you know, for example, like last week, when Governor Waller introduced the whole cost of rape cuts into the whole conversation, which everyone like got super excited about, you know, he didn't, you know, he just said that was like a he was encouraged by that number, and in needs. I think he said like three four or five months before they can start.

Speaker 4

Talking about rapecuts.

Speaker 5

So he didn't mention that they're going to start cutting race. He says, we need to see a few more months worth of of better inflation data before we do anything. So I think they're really with a very cautious outlook. But again, you know, we when we have longer term inflationary pressures out there, like from the labor market, you know, like we have the working age population globally has already basically peaked, right, so we're seeing a.

Speaker 4

Lot of people retiring, a lot of people.

Speaker 5

Shifting industries, so there's still that tightness.

Speaker 4

In the labor market.

Speaker 5

And this is like again a global phenomenon, and certainly that in the US. I think Bloomberg ran a story this morning about meurses being you know, a short supply as another example of a of an industry that needs workers. So that's going to cause out for pressure on wages

and the labor market. And then I'm going to go, I'm going to point to mother Nature again and climate that's been causing so much havoc all over the world in terms of like floods and droughts, and I think that's going to have you know, some still upward pressure on food prices and all that. And of course all the wars are having upper pressure on energy prices, so all that I think still has I'm a bit worried

still about inflation. Not going to call it an all clear just yet, and I think the FED would probably agree.

Speaker 6

On Friday's jobs report, we'll also get a reading on average hourly earnings. What are you seeing when it comes to wage growth, because that is something that we know FED Chair Jero Pal is watching really closely.

Speaker 5

So we're looking for about a three times increase, which is in line with consensus, you know, about four percent year over year. Still steady, but coming down maybe because we already know that the economy is slowing. It's not five point two percent anymore. You know, it's probably closer to one percent this quarter. Demand is starting to slow. We're not seeing you know, three hundred thousand jobs job

increases anymore. So I think wage demands and the fact that inflation, as we just said, is coming down, I think it's going to temperate demand for earnings.

Speaker 4

Now.

Speaker 5

Having said that, you know, I'm also a bit concerned just given all the strikes that we've seen over the past year, and I don't remember have a time where

we saw so many and demands were being met. So that again is sort of like that, you know, on the one hand, on the other hand, thing with which I shouldn't be doing, but I'm doing it anyway, you know, overall slowing demand for labor, but still you know, there's still that that big source overall, So I think it's still gonna be steadyish, but slower wage growth overall.

Speaker 2

Jennifer, Outside of the US, where you kind of focusing on where's the next where's the big delta?

Speaker 3

Is it Europe? Is it Asia? Outside the US? Where are you focusing?

Speaker 5

I'm kind of worried about Europe, frankly, but although this morning I will say that was a little bit more relieved. You know, it was like some and we normally don't look at revisions too much for services and composite.

Speaker 4

Pmis because they usually don't change that much.

Speaker 5

But the fact that they all realized higher, particularly in the UK as well, back over fifty was a little bit gratifying. And the fact that you know that last week's inflation rate for the for the for the euro Area the lowest in almost in over two years actually, And the fact that one of the big uber hawks herself, you know, is a belish novel of the vice executive board member of the ECB, actually said that you know,

when things change, she changes her mind. And that's something huge coming from her, you know, some of the other hawks, you know from the bundes Bank, and we haven't heard from Austria recently, but you know, I think there's still very more cautious on the outlook. But I'm still again worried about when when the ECB will finally drop its hawkish talents, and of course they still are surrounded by wars over there as well, so that's a little bit worrying.

And of course the UK is actually interesting. The data keep changing. You know a lot of revisions out there that you know, and we're seeing a lot of change signs changing on growth rates, which is kind of interesting.

Speaker 4

But the UK is not looking as bad.

Speaker 5

As I would have expected a year ago, so a bit more encouraged on that front.

Speaker 6

We only have about a minute left. But if you were able to ask FED Chair Jerome Pala question is press conference next week following the Federal Reserve's decision, what would you ask him?

Speaker 5

I would say, sir, with all due respect, if assuming no one's in the room, just tell me what exactly is it going to take before you're going to start talking about great cuts? What will it taken? Tell me all the factors. I can put them on my little checklist and check them off.

Speaker 3

What do you think should be on top of that list?

Speaker 5

How many months of CPI do you need to you know, and how much does it need to go down for the three months and the six month annualized rate before you can start saying Okay, forget it, We're done. We are completely you know, I'll complete at this point, and I want to see what he thinks about for wages as well on the demographic front, and you know unemployment generally, you know, how how much how much do you want the unemployment rate to rise by in order to say that you are finally finished?

Speaker 2

Jennifer, thanks so much for joining us. Always appreciate getting a few minutes of your time, Jennifer Lee. She is a senior economist and the managing director at ABMO Capital Markets up there in Canada. Always appreciate getting a few minutes of Jennifer's time.

Speaker 3

Here.

Speaker 7

You're listening to the team. Ken's a our live program, Bloomberg Markets weekdays at ten am Eastern on Bloomberg dot com, the iHeartRadio app, and the Bloomberg Business App, or listen on demand wherever you get your podcasts.

Speaker 2

Let's talk about private credit certainly a big, big issue for us here. We like talking about it because we see the growth in private equity is just so extraordinary.

Speaker 6

I guess we'll credits around one half trill.

Speaker 2

Yeah, and it really took off after the Great Financial Crisis when the bank started pulling back here. So, uh, let's talk to somebody who plays in this part of the sandbox. Hugh van steinas vice chair and partnered Oliver Wyman. He joins us, Hugh, can you give us kind of your view of where we are on the private credit boom out there?

Speaker 3

Is it overdone? Is at a healthy market?

Speaker 2

How do you think about the evolution and the growth of private credit?

Speaker 8

Well, Paul, thanks for having me on.

Speaker 5

Now.

Speaker 9

Look, I think there's a big runway still to come in terms of private credit, and I think it's driven by a couple of things. I mean, first, as you just said Paul, when you laid it out, the banks have been obviously on a bit of a diet in the last decade, and that's really advantage some of the private credit players. But I think there's another diet to come. If you look at the FED proposals, the FED may be asking the banks to take as much as a

thirty five percent increasing capital for their investment banking businesses. Now, I'm sure it's going to get watered down, but that's an enormous squeeze, which means the banks need shared assets. And then secondly, you know obviously had mark grown from Apollo on earlier today. I think also the regional banks in the States have really got some issues and are selling assets at quite good good prices too, So there's an opportunity set of bank shedding assets and on the

other hand, clients just desperate for yield. There's biggest source of inflos this year is into private credit, you know, as Jess was just saying, it's grown wildly, but it might double again in the next two to three years. So for the moment, I actually think the conditions remain very ripe and a really good year for opportunities.

Speaker 6

Do you see any sort of red flags brewing within the private credit market at this point?

Speaker 8

No, it's a great question.

Speaker 9

So look, as a long time bank sell list, any asset which any market which grows too fast always creates at least an amber flag if not read Look, there's a bit of frothiness, particularly look around leverage lending prices are becoming tighter.

Speaker 8

That area is really heavily bid.

Speaker 9

For the note we put out last week, I work through that twenty eight traditional asset managers have either bought another private credit firm or set one up themselves, So there's clearly a bit of frothiness around the leverage lending area. But if I look at the kind of off the run deals, whether it's buying bank assets, whether it's more esoteric lending, it still looks quite an attractive spread. So I think the leverage lending is probably the area to

look at. And then the second one, of course, is who's the right buyers? Are the buyers ones who understand this is the long term asset because you're basically getting assets which used to be run by a bank but are now going to get run by a fun manager. You know, do they have the right skills to work out? Do they understand this assets can be liquid? And as ever in life, you know, we hope that the right buyers by the right assets, but that doesn't always happen.

Speaker 8

So that's another area that I'm very watchful for.

Speaker 2

Hugh, Why do you think the banks are allowing this to happen? I mean, when I was at the Chaseman Hand Bank, we made a lot of money in our leverage lending business. I'm not going to let that business go to the private market. What's happening on the other side of the street.

Speaker 9

Yeah, you know, it's a great question, and it's It is extraordinary that you're getting even some of the US's largest banks setting up new private credit units. It's really a consequence of regulation, you know, the FARED or in Europe the ECB are trying to jack up the capital charges to hold leverage loans on the balance sheet. But it's not also even just holding them, it's also the

trading of them. Now, you know, as you know, and you've spoken about in the last few months, you know, there's an intense battle and negotia oh sorry, a discussion going on between the banks and the FED about what is the right level of capital for the risks they're running. And the large banks clearly think that they've got sufficient capital.

But if the FED were to apply the rules as they're currently proposed, as I said, it's a thirty five percent increase that's so ginormous, the banks will clearly need to trim their sheets, shed some assets, be more thoughtful about the marginal loan they make.

Speaker 8

So I think you're right, Paul. It's been a great business.

Speaker 9

It should be a great business, but it depends it's kind of in the gift now of what the FED will do.

Speaker 6

Talk to us about the market for private corporate loans, because right now they're facing obviously a very high rate environment for the first time since they really boomed in popularity. What do you think this means next year? Because even if the Federal Reserve holds off on raising interest rates, rates are still very elevated. How does that impact that particular quarter of the market.

Speaker 9

No, Look, I think that is a really good question because, look, because the debt is mostly floating rate notes, so in other words, it's been passed on to the corporate directly. Look, as financing costs normalize, some of the weaker balance sheets can be exposed. And you've started to see that even in public markets in the last three or four months. The trade between the stronger sheets and weaker sheets, even in the in the SMP has been quite pronounced, i'd

say since since June. But you're starting to see that move through the private credit market. You know, is it possible, It would be surprising if there won't be some challenges for a couple of the some of the borrowers.

Speaker 8

And I think that's also you.

Speaker 9

Know why the larger players will need to know can they work out the asset, can they rearrange the debts? You know, do they want to how do they bail inequity if they need to? And I think that restructuring element is going to become probably into the second half of next year and beyond start to become more notable. But you know, the current credit dynamics that we're seeing in these portfolios, and admittedly the data could be better, but from what we can see at the moment, they're

still performing quite well. Q.

Speaker 2

I mean, I guess my experience is looking at this marketplace that it's been very successful, but it's been focused primarily on the middle market lending.

Speaker 3

Do you expect to see these.

Speaker 2

Private credit funds right, bigger and bigger checks going forward?

Speaker 8

Yeah, so definitely we're seeing larger checks.

Speaker 9

So, look, you've seen a four point eight dollars deal, You've seen a four point nine billion dollar deal this year, I mean, which would be unthinkable even.

Speaker 8

Five years ago alone, let alone beyond that.

Speaker 9

So you're definitely seeing Look, you know, in what I think one of the most interesting features of finance is how the winner takes. Most dynamic that you see in tech and other parts is coming into finance too. You've seen it in the big banks, You've seen it in also some of the big asset managers, and that kind of winner takes most dynamic is coming.

Speaker 8

To private credit too.

Speaker 9

So look, the top ten private credit players represent about forty percent of the fundraising of the last twenty four months and if anything, it looks like it's going higher now.

That means they can take on bigger loans, as you said, Paul, but also it means that if you've got a you know, a mid cap bank who maybe you know has got some of the lending facilities from the from the FED that they introduced around the you know, the regional bank termoil earlier this year, if they need to shed a few assets to you know, deleverage their balance sheet, they're going to go to one of these top ten, top

fifteen firms. So it's not just mid market lending, it's it's the larger firms are doing much more taking opportunities or quirky off the run portfolios from banks. And as you saw that with with with with Credit Suite some earlier in the year or last year, I think this is actually a really interesting seam for some of the more skillful players.

Speaker 6

Private debt was supposed to struggle when borring casts were rising, but that didn't happen. What was the catalyst to make it as successful as it has become in recent years.

Speaker 9

Losh, that's a good question, Jess, because I suppose in a way we've only look, this is the sharpest rate cycle what since seventy nine eighty one, but it's only really in the last twelve months it's really kicked in. So to be humble, Jess, we haven't yet seen the full seasoned impact rates.

Speaker 8

Yeah, we haven't got there years.

Speaker 9

Yeah, as Tom mkkeepe telling me, it's the long and variables, isn't it trip you up? And I don't think we've got there yet. So to be honest, Jess, I don't think you see the evidence. So that's where look, if you want to be bearish, you can say these season cost coming through will start to be more problematic for some of the mid market firms, particularly if they don't have other sources of debt available. And in particular, let's be clear, some of the regional banks in the States.

You can see the latest FED lending surveys and loans, you know, lending rates are slowing quite materially, and so it's not like the banks are going to pick up the slacks, so they're going to be more dependent upon private credit. Look, I think the like with all of the economy we've seen corporates and households, I'm into this with a much stronger balance sheet, right, and that's really why it's taking over longer.

Speaker 3

All right, Thank you so much for joining us, great great stuff.

Speaker 2

I appreciate getting a few minutes of your time. Hugh van steinas vice chair and partner at Oliver Wyman.

Speaker 7

You're listening to the tape cats are live program Bloomberg Markets weekdays at ten am Eastern on Bloomberg Radio, the tune in app, Bloomberg dot Com, and the Bloomberg Business App. You can also listen live on Amazon Alexa from our flagship New York station, Just Say Alexa Play Bloomberg eleven thirty.

Speaker 2

Jess Met and Paul Sweeney were live here on a Bloomberg Director Brokers Studio streaming live as well on YouTube stag Head over to YouTube dot com and search Bloomberg Radio. Adding to my argument, my widely held argument here by me that pound for pounds, some of the best money managers are in Milwaukee, Wisconsin. Is our next guest, Tom Pogner. It is I don't know what they're doing out there. Tom Agner, Senior portfolio manager managing director at all Spring

Global Investments. It will always be strong funds for me with Tom. Tom, thanks so much for joining us here. My friend talk to us about this market. We had a ripping November mark it up over eight percent, yields coming down dramatically. Was that it? I mean, we where where do we go from here?

Speaker 10

Yeah, hey, Paul, great to talk to you again, and yeah, those were the good old days.

Speaker 8

The boy.

Speaker 10

It sure seems like we're playing into even the data this morning, this Goldly Locke scenario. And I think one of the things I try and do it which I think you always did, which is look over the credit markets and see what they're telling us. And you know, after touching five percent, the ten years been ripping downward. And I think even more importantly for US equity investors, credit spreads are hitting new lows for the year, and

I think I was looking at it this morning. I think we're all the way back to pre COVID levels on credit spreads, which means investor risk appetite is up, which is a good thing for equities and a good thing if you're a growth investor, so what are.

Speaker 6

You advising clients to buy and sell?

Speaker 10

Yeah, so we've been telling them, you know, don't miss out. I know it's been a magnificent seven year, and you know we've participated with that. We own a lot of those stocks, but we've we've had smaller mid cap stocks in the portfolio in trying to find opportunities there. We feel like that probably is the biggest misnomer from an

evaluation standpoint in the market today. They don't do as well when rates are going up, but if rates continue to go down, as we've seen over the last week or two, you can see small MidCap stocks really participate in this rally. And I think that's an opportunity. And then the other thing we've been telling them is, yes, technology is important. We like technology stocks, but have diversification in your portfolio.

Speaker 2

So outside of tech, Tom, what do you think of some areas are you? I guess some folks now, after you know this year in the performance of the magnives and seven, they're saying, boy, do I ride these things? Do I try to chase them? Or do I just say I missed that trade? Now let me go find some other good names and maybe have not participated in twenty twenty three.

Speaker 10

Yeah, we would be barbelling it. So again, I wouldn't be out of those names. I think a lot of them. You know. Actually, like an Nvidia is trading at the lowest PE evaluation it has in five years. People are doubting the sustainability of the earnings that have been generating.

Even if you look over at Amazon trading about fourteen times enterprise value to EBITDAH, you know, relative to some of the big media companies, relative to Apple, which trades at you know, well north of twenty times EBITDA, we think,

you know, there's still opportunities there. And then but I think, yeah, go down the market cap, look at places like healthcare, look at some of the things that kind of got destroyed during this GLP one phenomenon, which we agree with, like there's no doubt that that is going to impact healthcare, but it's not going to really destroy the models of other companies. And we think there are opportunities in small

and MidCap healthcare, in particular in medtech. And one of the things that I think is really interesting is you listen to some of these conference calls of companies like A J and J. They are talking about ramping up the M and A playbook again and that can be very good if you in the small MidCap space.

Speaker 6

You also sent us a list of stocks, one of them Amazon on here and we're talking about megacap stocks here. What is it about Amazon that you like?

Speaker 10

Well, part of it is they've gotten the religion right. So they brought in and I don't think it was a huge surprise to us, but you want to see the execution they brought in. The CEO came over from the AWS side. AWS historically has run twenty five thirty percent EBITDA margins, pretty healthy margins for that business. We don't think the retail side gets anywhere near there, but you know, getting it up from negative to zero to you know, pushing mid single digits now, we think that

is a good opportunity. We think the data center AWS business is bottom out of growth at twelve thirteen percent. We know AI sucks, takes up a lot of data center space, and we we think Amazon, you know, is a good play on that. And that's again one that we think is a reasonable evaluation, even with a pretty good move it's had this year.

Speaker 6

Yeah, up more than seventy percent here today Paul Amz and the ticker on MED.

Speaker 7

Yeah.

Speaker 2

Absolutely, yeah, absolutely, Hey, how do you view AI in general? It just seems like it became a thing so so quickly, and investors were just kind of clamoring and forgot, how do they get some exposure here aside from Nvidia? How do you view AI and do you have any exposure there that you think is interesting?

Speaker 7

Yeah?

Speaker 10

I think you were believers, and so I actually spent all last week talking to companies about it. I think it's like eighty percent chance this is revolutionary, you know, twenty percent chances this is kind of a normal net secular shift within the technology space that that isn't as.

Speaker 8

Big a deal.

Speaker 10

But we're pretty big believers. We think the dollars are flowing there. If you look at who's spending the dollars, these are companies with who've historically been smart spenders, the Googles, the Amazons, the meta of the world. And we think it benefits not just in videos, and we do think benefits and videos, but it's gonna start spilling over to other companies, other semiconductor companies. We think as you go into next generations, and a MD potentially benefits as you

move more into inference from training. We think power management is extremely important and companies like a monolithic power plane of that. And then we think database is extremely important in data management, and there's gonna be a whole a few different ways to play that. Our biggest position there in the portfolio has been Mango dB. It's had a great run this year, its valuation has come up and lo and behold they actually report tonight. So I would

encourage people to wait and digest that news. But we think the growth talent winds behind that business are being underestimated and undervalued in the market, so we think it's a good opportunity. But I would digest the new data we're going to get tonight.

Speaker 6

What are some stocks or industries that you don't want to own? A good question.

Speaker 10

I think we're still back and forth on consumer right. I think the most recent data points have been a little better. If you look at the projections for holiday spending, they look pretty good this year, five to twelve percent, which would be pretty healthy. I think we were at three to four percent last year. I think it's you know, so anything above above that would be healthy. I think consumers are moving back to internet online spending, which should

benefit those types of companies again. And you know, I think was mentioned prior to my segment here that you know, even though the jolt S data is showing a bit of a slowing in the job market, there's still one point four job openings per job loss out there and or job seekers, and so it's still a pretty healthy environment if you're a consumer out there. And so it's

not the greatest, but it's not too bad. And so I think there's a lot of back and forth there, and so i'd say we're a little more agnostic in that segment, and I'd say you definitely need to be a little picky on what you're investing there. And then i'd say the other that a little cautious on is what's going on in the industrial segment. It's just we're just hearing of increase tightening there, of companies pulling back

a bit. Europe seems like I don't think it's going in recession, but that growth that had picked up a little bit at the beginning of this year when we talk to companies, sounds like it's kind of gone the other way again. And that's that's you know, pushing kind of zero percent growth and then China, to be fair, has been disappointing all year.

Speaker 7

Yep.

Speaker 2

Absolutely, Hey Tom, thanks so much for taking a time. Really appreciate chatting with you. Tom Agner. He's a senior portfolio manager. He's a managing director over at Afspring Offspring Global Advisors, based just outside of Milwaukee, Wisconsin. Appreciate checking in with him.

Speaker 7

You're listening to the tape kens our live program Bloomberg Markets weekdays at ten am Eastern on Bloomberg Radio, the tune in app, Bloomberg dot com, and the Bloomberg App. You can also listen live on Amazon Alexa from our flagship New York station, Just Say Alexa playing Bloomberg eleven thirty.

Speaker 2

Jessica bought a new car recently, twenty twenty four version. It's first new car I bought since twenty fourteen. And what I noticed is it's basically a technology platform with four wheels. It's software, it's point and click, It's basically your iPhone.

Speaker 3

With four wheels.

Speaker 2

It's not so much about the car, is about the technology.

Speaker 3

And I'm wondering, like, who are these people behind all this stuff? Like who does all this, We're.

Speaker 2

About to find out. Phil Jale he joins us. He's the CFO of e carts, the Nasdaq traded company e c X is the ticker based in China. Phil, thanks so much for joining us here via zoom here tell us just give us a thirty thousand foot view. What do you guys do at e car x?

Speaker 11

Thank you Paul for having me here. At least it's a Phil So Ihak's actually is a year in uh, you know, in design and the development and delivery of the best best of a breed of a copy digital copyter solution.

Speaker 12

As well as the full stack of software.

Speaker 11

Solution and automas driving solution for electric fed mobility urine.

Speaker 12

So we are in this industry for six years already.

Speaker 6

Who are typically your customers?

Speaker 11

So we have Malti customers both in China and the outside of China.

Speaker 12

So in China we served for the largest customer like a Chili group.

Speaker 11

At the same time, we also provide our service to you loadus Vobo post and the smart.

Speaker 2

So one of my favorite features is the heads up display and it's like I'm flying inn F sixteen. It tells me like you know, the speed limit and how fast I'm going on all that kind of stuff. I want to change the you know, the radio or the whatever.

Speaker 3

Do anything on the entertainment front. It just comes right up on your screen.

Speaker 2

It's a little freaky, but again it kind of makes me feel like I'm a fighter pilot or something nice. So Phil, talk to us about where your industry is going. It just seems like the the technology is so extraordinary making such leaps and bounds. Here when I go to the Consumer Electronics Show in Vegas in January, it's no longer it's basically an auto show, you know, with some some some pecs around it.

Speaker 3

Talk to us about where the technology is going.

Speaker 11

Yeah, sure, listen if the industry is a promising and uh got a lots of dramatic changes.

Speaker 12

So, uh, the eve eco industry.

Speaker 11

Already moved the front, you know, the combustion engine focused to you know, electric fights mobility solution move a from you know, the traditional Veico to you know, uh Thomas driving focus, so least to the industry is moving very fast. And now we are entering into an uielectional electronic mobility solution with the Eco Solutions cob Nation mode. So ECAs is seeing the ripest to support the industry transformation right.

Speaker 6

Now, talk to us about how the EV market is different in China versus the US.

Speaker 11

Yeah, definitely, so China, the new V market in Chinese woming As, we can see that we have many new players in the market, and right now China, our players actually provide the best of the reader's solutions in least the industry, not only for the Chinese MS, but also you know they are going abroad. They are going to provide the services in euro market, in the US market to support those of global em to grow and a strife.

Speaker 2

So it's it's interesting here. I mean, we just think about all the technology here. Talk to us about your company a little bit. I see the stockdown about sixty percent year to date. What's the what's the story that you're telling your investors here?

Speaker 11

Okay, so Ihas, Actually we are performing pretty well in terms of the financial performance. We are announced in a produltry our popeline granary growth group at fifty percent year a year, and our gross Marting percent gross Martin dollar also grew one and forty percent year growth. All those strong financial performance indiquate LA. We are in good shape at the same time. Right, for example, we provide our

full stack solution to many vehicles program. For example, we just support link D zero eight, the vehicle to launch in a year.

Speaker 12

Right will provide not.

Speaker 11

Only in the computing platform, but also will provide you know, as a solution, a common striving containing on it as well as you know, we operating system called framing Auto. So basically with that we are able to increase the content per vehicle and increase our pop line and the profitability as well. So we are long term focused the company we serve for the customer value. And right now I would say letter our stock prices under value.

Speaker 8

But it's okay.

Speaker 11

We are we are working on you know, the customer value enhancement and we really flat the investors. We'll we'll see our UH performance recurring.

Speaker 6

In terms of the surprise you talked about in your latest quarterly results about increased demand from international markets. Where have you seen the most increased demand?

Speaker 11

So from the international market perspective, I do believe that many traditional oms they would like to take it into the new evening market and let UH change had taken had taken place largely both in you know, Europe market and the China market and lots of the global m they like to play in a big way in China market, so they want, you know, the partners like the E cars to support UH.

Speaker 12

Better plan in China as well.

Speaker 11

At the same time, lots of the Chinese OM like to explore into Lefolo print in global market and e cars. We also follows oms to to strive to to you know, to to have the competitional advantage you know, gog market.

Speaker 12

So that is what happened. We called the channel to Global and Global China.

Speaker 2

Phil How was some of the tensions between the US and China, particularly it relates to technology and technology transfers. How has that impacted your business?

Speaker 11

I think the challenge is definitely uh uh you know, applied it to the industry, to to many uh many players tech players in the market. And I think the real issue here is how to address the customer demand. How does customers want to have the trusted the partner to support a UH vehicle to success succeed in the market. So right now it cas also operate globally, so not only in China, but also in Europe. We open up our foot printer in the UK, in the inter States,

in Sweden and Germany. So we are truly a global company and we collaborate collaborated with lots of the customers on a different diretion from the countries. So that's why we have confidence to you know, to bring a value to the customers and then the folly business to grow and win.

Speaker 2

Hey, Phil, thanks so much for joining us. I really appreciate getting some of your time on learning about your company, Phil Joe. He is the CFO of e car X. Symbol is e c X on the NASDAC and you can put that into your Bloomberg terminal and check.

Speaker 3

Out the stock.

Speaker 1

Thanks for listening to the Bloomberg Markets podcast. You can subscribe and listen to interviews at Apple Podcasts or whatever podcast platform you prefer. I'm Matt Miller. I'm on Twitter at Matt Miller nineteen seventy three and on.

Speaker 3

Paul Swenny I'm on Twitter at pt Sweeney.

Speaker 2

Before the podcast, you can always catch us worldwide at Bloomberg Radio.

Transcript source: Provided by creator in RSS feed: download file
For the best experience, listen in Metacast app for iOS or Android