Smead's Scherrer on Amazon: Won't Be the Death of Retail(Audio) - podcast episode cover

Smead's Scherrer on Amazon: Won't Be the Death of Retail(Audio)

Jun 27, 201611 min
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(Bloomberg) -- Taking Stock with Kathleen Hays and Pimm Fox. GUEST: Tony Scherrer, Director of Research at Smead Capital Management, on the US stock market and where to find value in times of uncertainty.

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Transcript

Speaker 1

Global business news twenty four hours a day, if Bloomberg dot Com, the radio, plus Globo Labs and on your radio. This is a Bloomberg Business Flash from Bloomberg World Headquarters. Charlie Pellet. We are well off our session lows, with the Dow Jones Industrial Average now down two hundred fifty points as the selling continues. The Dow is down one point four percent at seventeen thousand, one hundred fifty after shocks of the UK's vote to leave the European Union

continued to reverberate. SMP five hundred index down thirty five to two thousand one to drop there of one point eight percent and has stacked down one hundred eleven points the decline of two point four percent. The tenure up thirty one thirty seconds yield one point four or five percent, Gold up seven forty ounce the thirteen twenty nine, a gain of six tenths of one percent, and crude oil down a dollar forty six sixty five a barrel and

dropped there of two point one percent. I'm Charlie Pellett. That's a Bloomberg Business flie. Thank you. You're listening to Taking Stock with Kathleen Hayes and Pim Fox on Bloomberg Radio. We're gonna take a look at the stock marker shortly. First though, we want to take a look at our e t F report, brought to you by National Realty Providers of one Satisfaction Guaranteed New York City Realty Investments. See them at n r i a dot net and with our e t F report our own Katherine Cowdery.

The gold rushes on after the UK voted to withdraw from the European Union, gold rally the most since the height of the two thousand and eight global financial crisis, and that rally was reflected in the e t F industry g l D the spider gold shares advance and more than three billion dollars worth of shares were traded on Friday, about four times a daily average. Bloomberg Intelligence analist Eric Beltuna says it's been a good year for g l D. G l D is now up to

about eleven billion influence. That's double any other e t F on the year. It's just the gold kind of year it has been from day one, and I at the volume today and the performance, I think we see another two billion into gold in the next week given the trading volume today, so we're talking about thirteen billion flows.

That's about increase in the size of g l D. In addition to g l D, other e t F throws, including the iPath s MP five under VIC short term futures e t N or v x x IT jump and the I shares twenty plus year Treasury bond e t F taker t LT also rose up two point seven. That's your Bloomberg ETF report. I'm Catherine Cawdery, Catherine Cawderie. Thank you so very much. So the stock market continues its sell off break. Brexit inks, to put it, mildly

weighing on sentiment. A second days of losses, which the pride many people who thought that maybe coming in for a big sell off on Friday, we would get a little more um of a plateauing in here, perhaps finding a bottom, but not yet. Joinius Sells twenty sure huge director of research and co portfolio manager at Snead Capital Manage in about two and a half billion dollars of assets under management, joining us from Seattle, Washington, Tony. Welcome back,

Thank you, thanks for having me. Kathleen. Are you feeling the reverberations in in Seattle on futures down today. I don't know who is out there that's not stealing some of the reverberations from all of this. That's Uh, we're reminded that you want to buy when there's blood in the streets, and we've got some of that going on right now. Well, uh, you think people are already buying, don't you mean you've got the blood in the streets. I got that part of the sentence wrong. So, but

just step back for a minute. What for you? And again, you guys always have these longer term very interesting plays. Yet it's not just about the latest news or twist and terms in the economy. It's about longer term forces. But when you look at the market action, do you get a sense, particularly for the US, that this is overdone, should be ready for a bounce back or could this continue for a while? Tony? Yeah, you know, we do. We do look at the longer term when we own

a stock or buy. It's we're looking for, truly what it's going to look like in the you know, longest to five to seven year type time frame, not the nearer term stuff. Um so, so you know, really what people should be doing once a more rational kind of existence comes along. Is is looking at what the Wayne machine is going to play out to be. And we think there are some very good companies that are kind of,

you know, being thrown out. And we certainly understand the the first reaction, which is the Knegric reaction, which is to just get out and kind of sell everything. We understand that setiment. But that's exactly what you want to play into to to take positions in your longer term names.

How about banks? It's just ironic, isn't it that on Thursday, around five o'clock Wall Street time on the East Coast, we get the results of the bank stress test in the Federal Serve all thirty three banks in the US that are on that list. Past Morgan Stanley has some question marks over it, said, nevertheless, it passes to and then Brexit. Yes, we're gonna leave the Euse, says the UK. And wow, it's not just Italian banks and European banks getting hammered, so are the U S banks? Does that

make any sense? Is that something you'd look at buying because it's beaten up? Well, you know, we own some of the banks. We we like owning some of the banks, and the banks that we do own are very domestically focused. Um, I think there's a little bit of guilt by association

going on. When you have the European banks being down again today, you know, ten to fifteen plus percent, it's not really all that shocking for again that kneegric reaction to have even the US domestically oriented banks down, you know, five or so. There's gonna be more news this week. It comes on the capital ratio levels, and we think it's going to be good news. That you mentioned that

the news was good from last week. They definitely passed pretty much with flying colors, and um, we think they're gonna be a major beneficiary of what's going to go on here in the US, which is gonna be a far stronger economy in our opinion than what we think the assumptions it is looking like right now today. Can you tell us a couple that at the top of your list or a couple of you own what we owned Bank of America, We owned JP Morgan, and we

owned Wells Fargo. All of those are very again domestically oriented banks. That you take Bank of America for example, and they have one of the cheapest depository bases. Uh here in the US. They have twelve percent of the depository base in the United States of America, and we think a well position to be lending towards the home bind that's going to happen in the next decade as

millennials kind of get their sea legs underneath them. You are also making the case for consumer discretionary companies and more specifically retail. Uh, they have been under some cloud. I mean, we have last earning season, so many disappointments. Why would you buy retail? Now, let's start there. Well, the market hates ambiguity. They hate when it's not clear and they don't know what things look like. And right now in retail land you've got a lot of that.

Both in terms of the cyclical stuff going on. Everyone is pretty well discounted the fact that the weather accounted for weaker than expected retail sales, sales in the in the Christmas period and kind of the spring. Um. Then you have some secular issues going on as well, the question about how big and how large and how much of a disruptive factor Amazon is going to be for example. UM, So there's a lot going on right now we and

we think some of it's misunderstood. Ultimately, we think that it is a primal thing, a human thing, to go shopping. You know, we came across a quote that Kate Spade. We don't own the stock, but Kate Spade said that you start playing dress up at age five and you never stop. Okay, And when you when you see someone walk into a department store, there their next their heads become like swivel heads, right, They're looking around to see what they need that they didn't know that they needed.

They want to be led towards something new. They want to be led towards fashion. And we've been in this fashion dead zone and I think that's a little bit underappreciated. How much of an effect that's had on on on the shopping experience, which is why I think you have mull traffic down maybe more than what would normal. That that the secular trends. You mean, we need to offer women more than another pair of spandex to wear as fashion to get them in the stores, don't you think? Yeah, yeah,

it's one of my pet peeves. But what about Amazon addressed that? Because I'm with you, I'm that shopper. I don't go looking for a particular thing. I go just seeing what's there, what might be on sale, what catches my eye. I'm more in the moment. Is that opportunistic shopping as opposed to mission base and that's why often the online stuff I often would much rather go in

the store. So great example, So do you want to find that next fashion or that next new thing by buying ten dresses as it were, and returning nine of them, which is a total pain to shut to put them in the packaging tape and FedEx them off and everything else. Or would you rather go to a department store and look around and maybe get some expertise and see what's in fashion. So no, we think that that is overdone.

You might go to Amazon, you and you get the white T shirt that you need, and maybe it's it's certainly going to be beyond that, but we don't think it's going to take over all of retailing, which I think has become almost this monomaniacal idea, and we think that that's gone too far. Okay, as you said at Speed Capital Management out in Seattle, Uh, you if you're going to buy a stock, it has to be a company that meets an economic need, etcetera. Who are who

give us a couple of your picks in the retail world. Well, we do own Norstrooms. We we own, we own it, it's in the portfolio. We think that all of consumer discretionary is not a is not an absolute need, right, I mean it's a That's why it's called consumer discretionary. But we want to find and we think we own

companies that are they have cult followings. We own home Depot that's not going away, that's going to become very important, even more important in the next you know, housing boom, which we think is in it's very early innings mentioned Northstrooms. We own Comcast, they have totally addicted customers. Um. We own some of the old world media and those are

considered consumer discretionary as well. But we think it's actually a pretty staple like thing to turn on the news and actually watch you know TV, and of America gets that our news still by old world kind of news TV, uh, through through the through the television. So we think the advertising dollars are going to persist there um and we think those are we like those stocks as well. Just a little bit of time left here old world media. Who do you like in particular, we owned Tegna. We

like Tegna. They own forty six broadcast stations. They cover, you know, about a third of the United States of America. Number one NBC and ABCF or at CBS affiliate. We think they have a lot of um draw if you're going to want to advertise nationally, So we own them. We own Cannet as well, which is a very contrarian play. They're they're a news of course USA today. They're a newspaper company, and they're a consolidator in the business. Alright,

Tony Sheer, thank you so much. Dr Researchers made capital Management. They own and still likes of the big banks like Bank of America, JP, Morgan, and Wells Fargo. And he likes retailers despite Amazon. Norstrom's is one of his top picks on Kathleen Hayes and this is taking stock on Bloomberg Radio.

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